CAMBODIA DIVERSIFYING BEYOND GARMENTS AND TOURISM COUNTRY DIAGNOSTIC STUDY ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK CAMBODIA DIVERSIFYING BEYOND GARMENTS AND TOURISM COUNTRY DIAGNOSTIC STUDY Economics and Research Department November 2014 ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK © 2014 Asian Development Bank All rights reserved. Published in 2014. Printed in the Philippines. ISBN 978-92-9254-807-0 (Print), 978-92-9254-808-7 (e-ISBN) Publication Stock No. RPT146996-2 Cataloging-in-Publication Data Asian Development Bank Cambodia: Diversifying beyond garments and tourism. Mandaluyong City, Philippines: Asian Development Bank, 2014. 1. Economic development. 2. Cambodia. I. Asian Development Bank. The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area, or by using the term “country” in this document, ADB does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. ADB encourages printing or copying information exclusively for personal and noncommercial use with proper acknowledgment of ADB. Users are restricted from reselling, redistributing, or creating derivative works for commercial purposes without the express, written consent of ADB. In this report, “$” refers to US dollars unless otherwise specified. Asian Development Bank 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines Tel +63 2 632 4444 Fax +63 2 636 2444 www.adb.org For orders, please contact: Public Information Center Fax +63 2 636 2584 [email protected] FOREWORD Cambodia’s economy has grown rapidly for more than 2 decades. The catalysts of growth have been strong performances in the key sectors of garments, agriculture, and tourism. Rising foreign investment, deeper integration in global value chains, and a stable macroeconomy have contributed to this performance. The Royal Government of Cambodia continues to implement reforms to sustain and build on these gains. And we are continuing to find ways to improve economic management, support job creation, enhance rural development, improve gender equality, and promote good governance. These are all geared toward achieving development which supports equity and efficiency. As a result, the gains from the economic expansion have been shared through higher household incomes and reduced poverty. We recognize that much has been achieved, but that much more is possible. We welcome this report and its key findings. It identifies the critical constraints to development as the need for better infrastructure, especially in the energy sector and rural areas; a shift up in the level of skills and education; and improvements in governance to enhance the business environment. We also appreciate the need to increase the collection of fiscal resources and improve the allocation of these resources to economic and social investments. We will review the report’s findings on the need to diversify and upgrade the economy’s productive activities as we develop our industrial strategy. The Royal Government of Cambodia is grateful for the timely conduct of the study. The ideas and findings in this report will certainly be useful in providing inputs to support and operationalize the Rectangular Strategy for Growth, Employment, Equity, and Efficiency, and our longer-term vision for the economy and society. We seek an agenda that enables Cambodia to continue to grow, reduce poverty, and allow all members of society to participate in, contribute to, and benefit from the growth progress. H.E. Dr. Aun Pornmoniroth Minister of Economy and Finance Chairman of the Supreme National Economic Council Royal Government of Cambodia iii PREFACE Cambodia is in the challenging process of economic transition as it seeks to move beyond low-skill, low-value activities and expand its industrial base to generate broad-based inclusive growth. As the Government of Cambodia continues to build on strong growth and address emerging challenges, this study supports Cambodia’s efforts to sustain growth and make it more inclusive. The study identifies the critical constraints to development: namely, the need for better infrastructure, especially in the energy sector and rural transport; higher skills and educational levels; and improved governance to enhance the business and investment environment. The study also recognizes the need for better collection and allocation of fiscal resources to meet growing demand for economic and social investment. A special section highlights the need to diversify and upgrade the economy’s productive activities as the country develops and transitions toward higher-value activities in global value chains. The study was conducted by a team from the Economic Analysis and Operations Support Division, under the direction of Cyn-Young Park, Assistant Chief Economist, Economics and Research Department, Asian Development Bank (ADB). Background papers were prepared by Michael Smiddy on industrial policy and Partha Banerjee on energy. The study team included Paul Vandenberg, Kee-Yung Nam, Maria Rowena Cham, Paulo Rodelio Halili, Lilibeth Poot, Emmanuel San Andres, Rhina Ricci Lopez-Tolentino, and Maria Melissa Gregorio. Contributing ADB consultants included Ma. Concepcion Latoja, Regina Baroma, Arlene Evangelio, Amador Foronda, Roger Mercado, Ronaldo Ico, Lyndree Malang, and Lotis Quiao. The study was edited by Jill Gale de Villa, Eric Van Zant, and Alastair McIndoe. Michael Cortes provided layout, cover design, and typesetting. In conducting the study, ADB consulted with representatives from government, the private sector, development partners, and research institutions on the approach and findings. The study team is grateful for the support provided by the Government of Cambodia. Special thanks go to Dr. Hang Chuon Naron, who, as Vice-Chair of the Supreme National Economic Council and Secretary of State, Ministry of Economy and Finance, helped initiate the study; and H.E. Ros Seilava, Under Secretary of State, Ministry of Economy and Finance and a member of the council. ADB is committed to continued partnership and dialogue with the government to support its efforts to reduce poverty and achieve inclusive growth. To this end, the work of ADB’s Cambodia Resident Mission is much appreciated for fostering collaboration with the government and other stakeholders. Peter Brimble, formerly Senior Country Economist, played an important role in this regard under the direction of Putu Kamayana, former Country Director, and his successor, Eric Sidgwick. The study team also thanks the speakers at consultation workshops in 2012 and 2013, including, along with those already mentioned, Enrique Aldaz-Carroll, Alessandra D’Amico, Senaka Fernando, Saing Chan Hang, H.E. Hunleng Hay, Muhammad Ehsan Khan, Srinivasa Madhur, Gordon Peters, Vathana Roth, and H.E. Sok Siphana. Briefings were held at ADB headquarters with colleagues from the Southeast Asia Department and the Economics and Research Department, including former Chief Economist Changyong Rhee and Deputy Chief Economist Juzhong Zhuang. Makiko Matsumoto, Sophorn Tun, and Sukti Dasgupta from the International Labour Organization contributed to the study through a parallel and joint study on employment in Cambodia. The feedback during these consultations provided valuable inputs to the analysis and recommendations. Special thanks go to ADB’s Rehan Kausar and Michael White, who provided comments on the energy and urban development sections, respectively. Shang-Jin Wei Chief Economist Economics and Research Department iv CONTENTS Foreword iii Preface iv Abbreviations and Acronyms xi Cambodia Fast Facts 2013 xii Executive Summary xiii 1. Development Performance 1 1.1 Maximizing Natural Growth Opportunities 1 1.2 Economic Development Plans 3 1.3 Macroeconomic Performance 5 1.4 Economic Growth by Major Expenditure Component 6 1.5 Monetary Policy and Financial Sector Management 8 1.6 Fiscal Policy 12 1.7 Balance of Payments 14 1.8 Sources of Economic Growth, by Production Sector 15 1.9 Poverty and Inequality 32 2. Critical Constraints to Growth 35 2.1 Human Capital 36 2.2 Infrastructure 45 2.3 Macroeconomic Risks 58 2.4 Microeconomic Risks 61 2.5 Market Failures 66 2.6 Finance 68 2.7 Conclusion 72 3. Critical Constraints to Inclusiveness 73 3.1 Availability of Productive Employment Opportunities 73 3.2 Human Capabilities 77 3.3 Leveling the Playing Field 92 3.4 Social Safety Nets 99 3.5 Conclusion 101 4. Diversification and Upgrading 103 4.1 Patterns of Specialization and Diversification 103 4.2 Into Which Products Can Cambodia Diversify? 110 4.3 Policies for Diversification and Upgrading 115 4.4 Conclusion 125 Appendix 4.1: Product Sophistication, Revealed Comparative Advantage, and Proximity and Path 127 Appendix 4.2: Priority Export Products 128 5. Summary and Policy Recommendations 133 5.1 Human Capital and Access to Decent Employment 133 5.2 Infrastructure: Electricity, Rural Roads, and Rural Water and Sanitation 136 5.3 Governance 139 5.4 Fiscal Resources 140 5.5 The Way Forward and Special Challenge 141 References 143 v BOXES, FIGURES, AND TABLES BOXES 1.1 Managing Dedollarization 2 1.2 Socioeconomic Development Plans and GDP Growth 4 2.1 Growth Diagnostics Framework 36 4.1 Tariff Preferences Aid Diversification: Cambodia’s Bicycle Industry