Impacts of Climate Change on Coffee Production: a Case of Karagwe District

The University of Dodoma University of Dodoma Institutional Repository http://repository.udom.ac.tz

Natural Sciences Master Dissertations

2015 Impacts of climate change on coffee production: a case of Karagwe district

Kubabigamba, Jetson

The University of Dodoma

Kubabigamba, J. (2015). Impacts of climate change on coffee production: A case of Karagwe district. Dodoma: The University of Dodoma http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12661/763 Downloaded from UDOM Institutional Repository at The University of Dodoma, an open access institutional repository. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON COFFEE PRODUCTION; A CASE OF KARAGWE DISTRICT

Jetson Kubabigamba

A Dissertation Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of

Master of Science in Natural Resource Management

The University of Dodoma

October 2015 CERTIFICATION

The undersigned study certifies that has read and hereby recommends for the acceptance by the University of Dodoma. Dissertation titled, Impacts of climate change on coffee production; a case of Karagwe district. Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of masters of Science in Natural

Resource Management of the University of Dodoma.

………………………………………………….

Dr. Chrispinus D.K. Rubanza

(SUPERVISOR)

Date......

DECRELATION

AND

I, Jetson Kubabigamba confirm that this dissertation is my own original work and that it has not been presented to any other university for a similar or any other degree award.

Signature ______

No part of this dissertation may be reproduced, stored in any retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written permissions of the author or the University.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

This study would not be completed without material and intellectual support from a number of people. I am greatly indebted to Dr. Rubanza, C.D.K, my major

Supervisor for his outstanding and tireless guidance throughout this study. I appreciate his valuable advice and guidance to the successfully of my study.

Equally important I feel so responsible to convey a word of thanks to Dr Gilbert

Bankobeza and Dr Beneth Bankobeza for their encouragement even before I had decided to go for masters studies. It is through their advice; I felt it possible to take a form and joined Dodoma University. Nevertheless, their commitment to grant me a partial financial assistant opened the door for me to go for studies, May the Lord blesses their life.

My special tributes go to my mother Perpetual Domitian, beloved brothers and

Sisters Mr Innocent Kabyazi, Dickson Kubabigamba, Mary Domitian and Margret

Kabyazi for their moral, spiritual and material support to the accomplishment of this tough work.

Last but not least am highly indebted to thank all respondents, private and governmental organizations one by one in Karagwe district who made great contribution to this study. By spending their time answering questionnaires, attending interviews, panel discussions and conducting pilot studies and others so as this study become successful.

Lastly, I would like to express my thanks to my entire colleague from the Msc NRM class 2012/2013 for their support and contributions during my studies and compilation of this dissertation. I’m especially grateful to Mr. Erasto Man`genya and

Charles Aman for encouragement and support during this study.

iii ABSTRACT

A socio-economic survey through questionnaires, interviews, focus group discussions and field observations was carried out to assess impacts of climate change on coffee production in ten (10) wards of Karagwe District of north western

Tanzania. Specific objectives underlying the study were to: (1) assess coffee production trend for the past 10 years from July 2003 to July 2013, (2) to identify and analyze impacts of climate change on coffee production among coffee producers in the district. The study also aimed to: (3) identify common adaptation and coping strategies towards impacts of climate change on coffee production. A total of 140 respondents representing local community, government institutions and Cooperative unions were sampled using both simple random sampling and purposive sampling.

Data were analyzed into simple descriptive statistics using Statistical Packages for

Social Sciences (SPSS) version 16 and Statistical Analytical System (SAS), Inc. (ver.

Results show that coffee production trend in ten sampled wards was highly variable across years (P<0, 0001) and wards (P<0, 0001). Coffee production potential in the district can be grouped into zones of high, medium, and low coffee production potential. Identified impacts of climate change affecting coffee production include prolonged dry spell (13.7%), drought (18.1%), strong winds (7%), elevated temperatures (16.1%), poor distribution of rainfall (17.8%) storms (10%) and insect pests and diseases infestation (17.3%), Available climate adaptation strategies among coffee farming community include adoption of new technology (20.9%), adoption of sustainable agricultural production techniques (22.7%), and diversification and intensification of production systems (20.6%) could be concluded that adaptation and coping, strategies to impacts of climate change on coffee production trend are

iv fundamental to achieving sustainable livelihood among coffee farming communities.

It is further recommended that, improved institutional capacities through training on adaptive strategies and planning to address impacts of climate change are very crucial among coffee farming communities.

v TABLE OF CONTENTS

CERTIFICATION ...... i DECRELATION AND COPYRIGHT ...... ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ...... iii ABSTRACT ...... iv TABLE OF CONTENTS ...... vi LIST OF TABLES ...... xii LIST OF FIGURES ...... xiii LIST OF PLATES ...... xiv LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS/ ACCRONYMS ...... xv

CHAPTER ONE ...... 1 1.0 INTRODUCTION ...... 1 1.1 Background information ...... 2 1.2 Statement of the Problem ...... 4 1.3 Research Objectives ...... 5 1.3.1 General objective ...... 5 1.3. 2 Specific objectives ...... 5 1.4 Research Questions ...... 6 1.5 Significance of the study ...... 6 1.6 Limitations of the study ...... 6 1.7 Scope of the study ...... 7

CHAPTER TWO ...... 8 2.0 LITERATURE REVIEW ...... 8 2.1.1 Definition of key terms ...... 8 2.1.1.1 Weather ...... 8 2.1.1.2 Climate ...... 8 2.1.1.3 Climate change ...... 9 2.1.1.4 Climate change scenarios ...... 9 2.1.1.5 Climate variability ...... 9 2.1.1.6 Green house gases ...... 9

vi 2.1.1.7 Green house effect...... 10 2.1.1.8 Global warming ...... 10 2.1.1.9 Impacts of climate change ...... 10 2.1.1.10 Vulnerability ...... 10 2.1.1.11 Climate vulnerability ...... 10 2.1.1.12 Coping to climate change impacts ...... 11 2.1.1.13 Adaptation ...... 11 2.1.1.14 Maladaptation ...... 11 2.1.1.15 Mitigation ...... 11 2.1.1.16 Disaster risk reduction...... 12 2.1.1.17 Anthropogenic activities ...... 12 2.1.2 Theories of climate change ...... 12 2.1.2.1 The Paleo climate theories ...... 12 2.1.2.2 Historical time theories of climate change ...... 13 2.1.2.3 Recent theories of climate change...... 13 2.2 Empirical literature review ...... 14 2.2.1 An overview of the science climate change ...... 14 2.2.2 Climate change scenarios ...... 16 2.2.3 Causes of climate change ...... 17 2.2.3.1 Anthropogenic activities ...... 17 2.2.3.2 Effects of greenhouse gases on climate change ...... 18

2.2.3.2.1 Carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) ...... 18

2.2.3.2.2 Methane (CH4) ...... 18

2.2.3.2.3 Nitrous oxide (NO2) ...... 19 2.2.3.2.4 Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) ...... 19 2.2.3.3 Natural causes of climate change ...... 19 2.2.3.3.1 Variations in the earth's orbital characteristics ...... 20 2.2.3.3.2 Variations in atmospheric carbon dioxide...... 20 2.2.4 Global warming ...... 20 2. 2.5 Causes of global warming ...... 21 2.2.5.1 Agricultural emissions ...... 21 2.2.5.2 Emissions from automobiles and Industries ...... 22

vii 2.2.6 Impacts of climate change ...... 22 2.2.6.1 Influence of climate change on drought ...... 22 2.2.6.2 Influence of climate change on altered precipitation patterns ...... 23 2.2.7 Effect of climate change on agricultural production ...... 24 2.2.7.1 Effect of increasing temperatures on agriculture ...... 25 2.2.8 Coffee production trend in Tanzania...... 25 2.2.9 Impacts of climate change on coffee production ...... 28 2.2.9.1 Impacts of climate change on coffee production in developed countries ...... 29 2.2.9.2 Impacts of climate change on coffee production in East Africa ...... 30 2.2.10 Coping strategies to impacts of climate change on coffee production ...... 31 2.2.10.1 Diversification and intensification of production systems ...... 31 2.2.10.2 Application of mulching ...... 32 2.2.11 Adaptation strategies to impacts of climate change on coffee production…..32 2.2.11.1Adoption of new varieties better adapted to climatic condition ...... 33 2.2.11.2 Adoption of sustainable production techniques ...... 34 2.3 Conceptual frame work ...... 34 2.3.1 Independent variables...... 34 2.3.2 Dependent variables ...... 35 2.3.3 Intermediate variables ...... 36 2.4 Research gap ...... 39

CHAPTER THREE ...... 40 3.0 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY ...... 40 3.1The Study Area ...... 40 3.1.1 Location...... 40 3.1.3 Demography ...... 41 3.1.4 Vegetation ...... 41 3.1.7 Farming systems ...... 42 3.1.8 Administrative Divisions ...... 43 3.2 Research Design ...... 44 3.3 Study population ...... 44 3.4 Sampling Procedure ...... 44

viii 3.5 Sample ...... 45 3.6 Data Collection methods ...... 45 3.6.1 Questionnaire survey ...... 45 3.6.1.1 Questionnaire pre-testing ...... 46 3.6.1.2 Administering of the questionnaires ...... 46 3.6.2 Interviews ...... 46 3.6.3 Documentary Review ...... 47 3.6.4 Focus group discussion ...... 47 3.6.5 Key informant interviews ...... 47 3.6.6 Observations ...... 48 3.7 Data Processing and Analysis ...... 48 3.7.1 Questionnaire survey ...... 48 3.7.2 Key informant interview ...... 49 3.8 Validity and Reliability ...... 49 3.8.1 Validity ...... 49 3.8.2 Reliability ...... 50

CHAPTER FOUR ...... 51 4.0 RESULTS, PRESENTATION OF FINDINGS AND DISCUSSION ...... 51 4.1 Presentation of findings ...... 51 4.1.1 Socio-demographic characteristics...... 51 4.1.1.1 Age distribution ...... 51 4.1.1.3 Education status of respondents ...... 52 4.1.1.4 Marital status of respondents ...... 53 4.1.1.5 Occupation of respondents ...... 53 4.1.1.6 Crop production ...... 54 4.1.1.7 Coffee cropping systems ...... 54 4.1.2 Coffee production trend ...... 55 4.1.3 Impacts of climate change on coffee production ...... 57 4.1.3.1 Identified insect pests affecting coffee production ...... 57 4.1.3.2 Identified diseases affecting coffee production ...... 58 4.1.4 Adaptation strategies to impacts of climate change on coffee production...... 59

ix 4.1.5 Coping strategies to impacts of climate change on coffee production ...... 60 4.2 Discussion of the findings ...... 61 4.2.1 Socio- demographic characteristics...... 61 4.2.1.1 Age distribution ...... 61 4.2.1.2 Sex of respondents ...... 61 4.2.1.3 Education status of respondents ...... 62 4.2.1.4 Marital statuses of respondents ...... 62 4.2.1.5 Occupation of respondents ...... 62 4.2.1.6 Crop production ...... 63 4.2.1.7 Coffee cropping systems ...... 63 4.2.2 Coffee production trend ...... 64 4.2.3 Impacts of climate change on coffee production ...... 66 4.2.3.1 Low rainfall and poor rainfall distribution ...... 66 4.2.3.2 Effect of prolonged dry spell on coffee production ...... 67 4.2.3.3 Effects of drought on coffee production ...... 67 4.2.3.4 Elevated temperatures ...... 68 4.2.3.5 Strong wind ...... 68 4.2.3.6 Storms ...... 69 4.2.3.7 Effects of insect pests on coffee production ...... 69 4.2.4 Adaptation strategies to impacts of climate change on coffee production...... 73 4.2.4.1 Adoption of new varieties better adapted to climatic condition ...... 73 4.2.4.2 Diversification and intensification of production systems ...... 76 4.2.4.3 Adoption of sustainable production techniques ...... 76 4.2.4.4 Application of Mulching ...... 77 4.2.5 Coping strategies to impacts of climate change on coffee production ...... 78 4.2.5.1 Proper farm management techniques ...... 78 4.2.5.2 Adoption of sustainable production techniques ...... 80 4.2.5.3 Application of mulching ...... 81 4.2.5.4 Rain water harvesting and application of traditional irrigation schemes ...... 82

CHAPTER FIVE ...... 83

x SUMMARY, CONCLUSION, RECOMMENDATIONS AND AREAS FOR FURTHER STUDIES ...... 83 5.1 Introduction ...... 83 5.2 Summary of the findings ...... 83 5.3 Conclusion ...... 84 5.4 Recommendations ...... 85 5.5 Areas for further study ...... 86 REFERENCES ...... 87 APPENDICES ...... 97

xi LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: Administrative units of Karagwe district as per 2014 ...... 43

Table 2: Distribution of respondents in the Study ...... 45

Table 3: Number of Interviewees ...... 47

Table 4: Age distribution of the respondents ...... 52

Table 5: Sex of respondents ...... 52

Table 6: Education status of respondents ...... 53

Table 7: Marital status of respondents ...... 53

Table 8: Occupation of respondents ...... 54

Table 9: Main crops ...... 54

Table 10: Coffee cropping systems ...... 55

Table 11: Records of annual coffee production trends in ten wards 2003-2012 ..... 56

Table 12: Identified impacts of climate change affecting coffee production ...... 57

Table 13: Identified common insect pests of coffee ...... 58

Table 14: Identified diseases on coffee production...... 58

Table 15: Adaptation strategies to impacts of climate change on coffee production 59

xii

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure: 1 Coffee production trend in Tanzania 1989/1990 to 2001/2002 ...... 27

Figure 2: Conceptual frame work (Researcher, 2014)...... 38

Figure 3: Coffee production trends in Karagwe district 2003/ 2004 to 2012/2013 ... 55

Figure 4: Coffee production trends in ten wards 2003/ 2012...... 56

xiii

LIST OF PLATES

Plate 1: Coffee berries affected by coffee berry disease in Misha village, Karagwe. 59

xiv

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS/ ACCRONYMS

AGW Anthropogenic Global Warming

CFCs Chlorofluorocarbons

DALDO District Agriculture and livestock Development Officer

DCs Developed Countries

FGD Focus Group Discussion

GEF Global Environmental Facility

GHG Greenhouse Gas Emissions

GMOs Genetically Modified Organisms

HCFCs Hydro Fluoro Carbons

IFAD International Food and Agricultural Development

INC Initial National Communications

IPCC Inter Governmental Panel on Climate Change

IPM Integrated Pest Management

IRA Institute for Resource Assessment

KDCU Karagwe Development Cooperative Union

KDP Karagwe Development Profile

KECU Karagwe Coffee Estate Cooperative Union

KNCU Kilimanjaro Native Cooperative Union

LDCs Least Developed Countries

LULUCF The Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry

MNRE Ministry of National Resources and the Environment

NAPA National Adaptation Programme of Action- Tanzania

NBS National Bureau of Stastistics

NRC National Research Centre xv

PFCs per FluoroCarbons

REDD Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation

SF6 Sulfur Hexafluoride

TAFORI Tanzania Forestry Research Institute

IUCN International Union for Conservation of Nature

UNFCC United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change

UNHSP United Nations Human Settlement Program

URT United Republic Of Tanzania

VAR Vulnerability Assessment Report

VEOs Village Executive Offices

WEOs Ward Executive Offices

xvi

CHAPTER ONE

1.0 INTRODUCTION

Sustainable agricultural productivity including coffee production is hardly hit by impacts of climate change such as elevated temperatures, drought and dry spell

(Carmago et al., 2009). Climate change refers to any change of weather over time due to natural variability or as a result of human activity (IPCC, 2007). Climate change is mainly caused by human activities increased demand for energy caused by industrialization, rising human population and changing land use which increases concentration of green house gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide

(NO2), and methane (CH4) due to their influence on global warming (Rhode, 2000).

Climate change and variability pose impact on the environment and human population (Warren, 2006). A variable extent of climate change has been reported in different regions of the world (Salagrama, 2012). Climate change impacts a wide range of sectors including agriculture, environment and the ecology.

Climate change has direct impacts on climate sensitive activities such as agriculture

(IPCC, 2001a). According to Hansen et al. (2001), the impacts of increased temperature and reduced precipitation in some regions of Asia, Central America and

Africa resulting from climate change has lead to overall reduction in crop production including coffee (Carmago et al., 2009). For instance, a loss of about 10% of important cereal crops such as maize, rice and millet has been projected for South

Asia, Central America and Europe continents (Lobell et al., 2008). However, variable impacts have been reported across the globe. In Africa for example,

Southern African region has been projected to lose over 30% of its maize yield by

2030. Other crops including coffee have been negatively impacted by climate change incidences such as rainfall amount and its distribution, and the severity of insect pests and disease infestation (Carmago et al., 2009). Climate change impacts on coffee production, globally affects coffee plant growth and yield from elevated CO2, higher temperature, altered precipitation and transpiration regime (Rosenzweig,

2002). Similarly, Carmago et al. (2009) climate variation and oscillation cycles between El Niño and La Nina have contributed to extreme variation in coffee production in Central America as well as in other countries globally. Climate change incidences such as dry spell, drought and insect pests causes 30 to 90% yield loss of

Coffea arabica to commercial cultivator in Tanzania, Kagera and Karagwe in particular (Waller et al., 1993).

1.1 Background information

Changing climate already has noticeable impacts on coffee production in most coffee producing regions including Asian, European, American and African countries

(Baker et al., 2009). For example, in Mexico rainfall decrease by 40 mm per year and temperatures increase by 0.02oC per year caused a decline of coffee production by

34% between 1969 and 1998 (Jaramillo et al., 2009). Also, in Brazil, rising temperatures suggest coffee production is becoming viable in areas formerly considered too prone to frost. Climatic factors such as high temperatures have been associated with yellowing of leaves reduce the overall coffee production in the country (Davis et al., 2012). Similarly, Carmago et al. (2009) Colombian coffee production costs have increased due to new climatic conditions favouring breeding of insect and multiplication of pathogens. According to Luiz et al. (2005), the impacts of climate change have been negatively impacted coffee production globally and

Africa in particular (IPCC, 2001; IPCC, 2007) due to rainfall variability, elevated temperatures and even increasing incidences of crop insect pests and diseases. For example, Coffee Berry Borer (CBB), an insect pest which attacks coffee berries is forecasted to have worsened among farmers of Ethiopia growing Arabica coffee

(Agrawala et al., 2003. These impacts have been reported in other African countries, for example, Tanzania and in other countries within Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region and the globe at large (Wrigley, 1988). In Tanzania, coffee growing areas, for instance highlands of northern Tanzania in Kilimanjaro and Southern highlands of

Tanzania in Mbozi have been seriously hit by the impacts of climate change such as drought and the severity of insect pests such as coffee berry borer and disease infestation (Njoroge, 2002). Little is known on type and extent of the climate change impacts on coffee production in other regions of Tanzania including Kagera region of north western Tanzania and Karagwe district in particular. According to Huq et al.

(2006), climate change is rapidly emerging as one of the most serious global problem affecting many sectors including agriculture, industries and environment. It is now evident that, most of the warming occurred during the 20th century mainly during the two periods of 1910 to 1945 and from 1976 to 2000 (AWF, 2009).

According to the 3rd Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2001) and the 4th IPCC Assessment Report (IPCC, 2007), climate change has led into increased rainfall by 0.2 to 0.3% per decade over the tropical region land areas (10oN to 10oS).

Similarly, Hansen et al. (2001), noted that it is also likely that rainfall has decreased over much of the Northern Hemisphere sub tropical region land areas 10ON to 30oN.

Climatic variability has been noted in other countries including Africa and Tanzania in particular (Agrawala et al., 2003). Throughout Tanzania for instance, climatic

projections shows that, annual temperature may rise by 2.2OC by 2100 with somewhat higher increase of 2.6oC over June, July to August months and lower values of 1.90C for December, January and February (Mwandosya et al., 1998). For example, annual precipitation throughout Tanzania is projected to increase by 10% to the year 2100, with seasonal decline of 6% being projected for June, July and August and an increase of 16.7% being projected for December, January and February

(Agrawala et al., 2003).

1.2 Statement of the Problem

Coffee production in Kagera region and Karagwe district in particular is also threatened by climate change impacts such as rainfall amount and its distribution, also with changing temperatures and wind systems there has been insect pests and diseases such as Coffee Wilt Disease (CWD), leaf rust diseases and coffee berry disease that greatly reduce coffee productivity in the study area (KDP, 2013).

According to Karagwe Development Profile Report (KDP, 2013), in 2004/2005 and

2005/2006 coffee production decreased at the rate of 6816 tons (t) and 6078 t respectively. The decrease in crop production in the referred years could be attributed to weather related events including prolonged dry spells, elevated temperatures and drought that hit Western lake Victoria zone and thus affecting coffee production at different stages with flowering phase being a critical phase. In addition to changing climate, it is evident that both insect pests and diseases could affect coffee production by directly affecting flowering potentials, pollination and berry formation

(MAFC, 2008). Effects of climate change on coffee production are directly related to reduced tolerance limit to temperature, moisture and drought stress, and indirectly through its influence on insect pests and diseases (KDP, 2013). Evidences drawn by

TaCRI (2008) in coffee growing areas of Tanzania, Kagera region and Karagwe 4

district in particular associate low production with weather related events. Climatic factors associated to decreased coffee production include poor rainfall distribution, dry spell, elevated temperatures and prolonged drought (Kyamanywa et al., 2006).

According to Karagwe Development Profile Report (KDP, 2013), incidences of subsequent drought of 2004/2005, 2005/2006 and 2009/2010 have been associated to yellowing of leaves, drying of coffee flowers and premature ripening of coffee beans.

Records show decreased production in Karagwe district from 36.1 t in 2008/2009 to

14.7 t in 2009/2010 (KDP, 2013). According to Karagwe Development Profile

(KDP, 2013), low yield of 18.4 t to 6.8 and 6.07 t have also been reported in

2004/2006 (KDP, 2013). In spite of all these facts, information is lacking on what extent has exactly climate change reduced yield of coffee in many tropical countries and regions including Tanzania and Karagwe district in particular. A study was therefore conducted to assess the impacts of climate change on coffee production in the study area.

1.3 Research Objectives

1.3.1 General objective

Main objective of the study was to assess impacts of climate change on coffee production in Karagwe district of north western Tanzania.

1.3. 2 Specific objectives

The study was guided by the following specific objectives:

(i) To assess coffee production trend for the past 10 years from July 2003 to June

2013.

(ii) To identify and analyze impacts of climate change on coffee production

potentials among coffee producers in the district.

(iii) To identify common adaptation and coping strategies towards impacts of climate

change on coffee production.

1.4 Research Questions

The following questions were adopted for study:

(i) What is the extent of coffee production in Karagwe district from July 2003 to

June 2013?

(ii) What are the visible climate change impacts on coffee production potentials?

(iii) How farmers cope and adapt to impacts of climate change?

1.5 Significance of the study

Findings from the current study contribute on knowledge on kind and nature of climate change impacts, extent of the impacts as well as adaptation, mitigation and coping strategies among many rural peasant communities that rely on coffee as their livelihoods. Similarly, the study provides empirical evidence on how climate change impacts coffee production in different parts of the world. In addition, the findings of the study enable policy makers to formulate appropriate policies related to climate change and its associated impacts.

1.6 Limitations of the study

The study was only limited to impacts of climate change on coffee production apart from other factors that also affect coffee production such as price slump, lack of inputs, markets, poor extensional services, unsustainable production techniques and soil fertility.

1.7 Scope of the study

The current study was carried out within the geographical boundaries of Karagwe district in Kagera region in north western Tanzania. The study was adopted to assess the impacts of climate change on coffee production in the area; ten wards in the district were selected to collect information relevant for the study. These wards were

Ihembe, Rugu, Kihanga, Nyakabanga, Bugene, Ndama, Nyakasimbi, Nyakakika,

Nyaishozi and Kayanga. The areas under study were considered because the areas are potentially suitable for coffee production compared with other areas in the district.

CHAPTER TWO

2.0 LITERATURE REVIEW

This chapter presents various literature related to the study. It aims at showing what has already been done, identify the gaps in knowledge and hence the need to fill them through this study.

2.1 Theoretical Literature Review

Theoretical perspective is the way of looking at the world and making sense of understanding how we know, what we know (UNEP, 2008). Theoretical review helps in framing the projects and determine what kind of investigations are appropriate and shaping their analysis (Ngigi, 2009).

2.1.1 Definition of key terms

2.1.1.1 Weather

According to Orindi et al. (2006), weather is something that happens on a daily basis in the atmosphere includes air temperature, rain, snow and wind. Weather is the state of the atmosphere, to the degree that it is hot or cold, wet or dry, calm or stormy, clear or cloudy (Orindi et al., 2006).

2.1.1.2 Climate

Climate is defined as a long term average weather of a region including typical weather patterns, frequency and intensity of storms, cold spell and heat waves

(Hansen et al., 2001). Climate change is defined as change in average climate in long term trend such as change in average temperature (Blvd, 2006).

2.1.1.3 Climate change

Climate change refers to the prevailing or average weather conditions of the place as determined temperature and metrological change over the period of time (Hansen et al., 2001). Climate change is also referred to any change in climate over time weather due to natural causes or as the result of human activities (IPCC, 2001).

2.1.1.4 Climate change scenarios

Climate change scenarios refer to a plausible future climate that has been constructed for explicit use in investigating the potential consequences of anthropogenic climate change. Climate change scenarios consider future condition that includes both human induced climate change and natural variability (Hansen et al., 2001).

2.1.1.5 Climate variability

According to Olmos (2001), climate variability is short-term change in climate caused by changes in the ocean and atmosphere. Furthermore, Olmos, (2001) El Niño is an example of climate variability. Climate variability is not the same as climate change (Olmos, 2001). Climate change also changes climate variability (Hansen et al., 2001).

2.1.1.6 Green house gases

Greenhouse gases are gaseous elements of the atmosphere that absorb and emit radiation. They exist naturally and can be created; these are what keep the earth warm and habitable when balanced. Four principle greenhouse gases are recognized as carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), sulphur dioxide (SO2) and nitrous oxide

(NO2), (Praveen, 2007).

2.1.1.7 Green house effect

Green house effect refers to the circumstances where the short wavelength of the visible light from the sun passes through a transparent medium and are absorbed, but the longer wave lengths of infrared re-radiate from the heated object are unable to pass through that medium. The trapping of the long wave length radiation leads to more heating and higher resultant temperature on the earth’s surface (IPCC, 2001).

2.1.1.8 Global warming

Global warming is the gradual increase of temperature and historical warming of the earth’s surface based upon worldwide temperature and it is a record which have been maintained by humans since 1880s (NAPA, 2007).

2.1.1.9 Impacts of climate change

Impacts of climate change refer to the adverse spatial and thematic problems caused by weather variation and hence affecting livelihood of the people. Effects due to weather variation manifest themselves in global warming, prolonged drought and poor precipitation patterns (Suswatch, 2009).

2.1.1.10 Vulnerability

Vulnerability refers to the disastrous effects on the sustainable livelihood of humans and animals on the earth’s surface (UNEP, 1998).

2.1.1.11 Climate vulnerability

Climate vulnerability refers to the potential and adversely affected group of humans and animals by extreme weather events or change. It’s a function of exposure, 10

sensitivity and adaptive capacity (IPCC, 2001).

2.1.1.12 Coping to climate change impacts

Coping to climate change refers to responses on actual or expected climate changes and their effects. Such responses include changes in process, practices or structure either voluntary or planned to minimize potential damages associated by climate change. Such actions can be taken by individuals, households, government and other stakeholders (IPCC, 2001).

2.1.1.13 Adaptation

According to Suswatch (2009), adaptation refers to action taken to reduce vulnerability to actual or expected changes in climate. Adaptation is an adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities (IPCC,

2001).

2.1.1.14 Maladaptation

Maladaptation refers to an adaptation action that leads to increased vulnerability to climate. Maladaptation often results from short-sighted planning, where short-term benefits are gained, either knowingly or unknowingly, cause the situation to become worse in the future or cause additional problems (UNEP, 1998).

2.1.1.15 Mitigation

According to Suswatch (2009), mitigation is defined as actions to reduce the sources of green house gases through different approaches such as enhancing the sinks of greenhouse gases. One of intervention to reduce emission due to accumulation of green house gases in the atmosphere includes strategies like afforestation and reforestation programme (IPCC, 2001). 11

2.1.1.16 Disaster risk reduction

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2001), Disaster

Risk Reduction (DRR) aims to reduce socio-economic vulnerabilities to disaster such as earthquakes, tsunami, and volcanoes as well as dealing with the environmental and other hazards that trigger them (IPCC, 2001).

2.1.1.17 Anthropogenic activities

Anthropogenic activities are processes, objects, or materials that are derived from human activities, as opposed to those occurring in natural environments without human influence. The term is often used in the context of environmental externalities in the form of chemical or biological wastes that are produced as by-products of human activities. For instance, a scientific consensus holds that man-made carbon dioxide is the primary factor driving climate change (UNEP, 1998).

2.1.2 Theories of climate change

The important theories of climate change are observed in three periods; (1) Paleo climate, which denotes periods of the orders of millions of years; the historical time periods (last several thousand years), and recent periods (since industrial revolution up to present time (IUCN, 1999).

2.1.2.1 The Paleo climate theories

The Paleo climate theories explain the extent of Paleo temperature in regard to the

Paleo calenders. The Paleo climate have the evidences of fossilized remains that show the primary clues of references about the duration and geographical extent of

Paleo temperature and moisture conditions (IUCN, 1999). The calender of Paleo climate is reconstructed since the Cambrian stage when free oxygen of the atmosphere increased and life forms started to develop rapidly. The period from 500 to 350 million years ago about 150 were of higher temperatures (Cambria,

Ordovician, Silurian period (Proveen, 2007). This gives a very clear picture of the present climate variability such as temperature, rainfall, and other weather events in

Tanzania, Kagera and Karagwe in particular.

2.1.2.2 Historical time theories of climate change

These are historical theories which explain the extent of past time temperatures on the earth’s surface. Periods of several thousand greater periods; the periods of written and inferred human history used archeological, documentation and instrument records institution to infer the past climate change (IUCN, 1999). During the first century of Christian era, the pattern of precipitation in Europe and Mediterranean resemble that of today (IPCC, 2001). This period was followed by wetter periods ending at 350 AD (IUCN, 1999). In the 5th up to 7th century this periods was warm and dry characterized by drying up of many Lakes in Europe, in Alps many passes were dry and Nile floods were low. Europe was wetter again in the 9th century. The dry condition resumed in the 10th century to the 11th century (IUCN, 1999). Currently therefore, impacts of climate change are threatening agricultural production and in particular coffee production in different parts of the World, Tanzania, Kagera, and

Karagwe in particular.

2.1.2.3 Recent theories of climate change

The more recent theories of climate change may be natural and human induced factors. Due to the following facts as follows; variation of energy released by the sun, changes in the angle of which the earth’s axis makes with the plane of ecliptic.

Also the changes in the eccentricity of the earth orbits, precision of equinoxes, shifting of the earth on its orbit, increase of albedo from volcanic ashes, increase of albedo from human activities and increase of greenhouse effects due to greenhouse gases (IUCN, 1999). Lastly flooding and extreme weather are due to continued temperature rises that would result to drought, flooding and violent tropical cyclones

(IUCN, 1999). This proves the existing differences of current impacts of climate change recently happening in Tanzania, Kagera and Karagwe in general.

2.2 Empirical literature review

Empirical literature review is the practical analysis of information related to the study. This analysis entails the analysis on the work titled the impacts of climate change on coffee production.

2.2.1 An overview of the science climate change

According to The United Nations Frame work on Climate Change Conversion

UNFCC, (2012), since the industrial revolution around 1750s, human activities have contributed substantially to climate change by adding CO2 and other heat-trapping gases to the atmosphere. These greenhouse gas emissions have increased the greenhouse effect and caused Earth’s surface temperature to rise (Foster et al., 2007).

Primary anthropogenic activities affecting climate change is greenhouse gas emissions such as Methane (CH4), carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrous oxide (NO2) from the burning of fossil fuels (Foster et al., 2007). Moreover, Foster et al. (2007)

changes in the sun’s intensity have influenced Earth’s climate in the past. For example, the so called “Little Ice Age” between the 17th and 19th centuries is believed to have been caused by a low solar activity phase from 1645 to 1715, which coincided with cooler temperatures (NRC, 2010). In addition, Huq et al. (2006) changes in earth’s orbit had a big impact on climate over tens of thousands of years.

In fact, the amount of summer sunshine on the Northern Hemisphere, which is affected by changes in the planet’s orbit, appears to control the advance and retreat of ice sheets. These cycles of ice ages changes appear to be the primary cause of past, in which Earth has experienced long periods of cold temperatures (ice ages), as well as shorter interglacial periods (periods between ice ages) of relatively warmer temperature. According to Suswatch (2009), climate change is more than the warming trend. The increasing temperatures results in changes of many aspects of weather such as wind patterns, the amount of precipitation, the type of and frequency on severe weather events that may be expected to occur in the area.

Climate change and the related threats of extreme weather conditions such as floods and drought is the major concern to all states and has the major implications to developmental activities. Particularly poor countries and communities who have fewer resources to cope with the shocks and stresses of the impacts of climate change. The impacts of climate change have affected much the physical and biological systems of the environment (Suswatch, 2009). These later have harmful and vulnerable consequences for human well being and sustainable development as witnessed in the current communities in Karagwe district and Tanzania in general

(NAPA, 2007b).

2.2.2 Climate change scenarios

According to Hansen et al. (2001), the concept climate change scenarios refers to a likely future climate that has been constructed for clear use in investigating the potential consequences of anthropogenic climate change and natural variability. The latter author further noted that climate change scenarios consider future condition that includes both human induced climate change and natural variability. Similarly, according to the third assessment report (IPCC, 2001) future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are the product of very complex dynamic systems, determined by driving forces such as demographic development, socio-economic development, and technological change. Climate change scenarios are alternative images of how the future might simplify and analyze how driving forces may influence future emission outcomes and to assess the associated uncertainties (IPCC, 2007).

Climate change scenarios assist in climate change analysis, including climate modeling and the assessment of impacts, adaptation, and mitigation (IPCC, 2001).

According to the 3rd Inter Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2001) different narrative storylines have been developed to describe consistently the relationships between emission driving forces and their evolution to quantify climate change scenarios. Moreover, the Inter governmental Panel on Climate Change

(IPCC, 2001) noted that each storyline represents different demographic, social, economic, technological, and environmental developments, which may be viewed positively by some people and negatively by others. The scenarios cover a wide range of the main demographic, economic, and technological driving forces of GHG and sulfur emissions (IPCC, 2001).

2.2.3 Causes of climate change

According to Hansen et al. (2001), the historical record shows that, the causes of climate change varies naturally over a wide range of time scales prior to the

Industrial Revolution in the 1700s which is explained by natural causes, such as changes in solar energy, volcanic eruptions, and natural changes in greenhouse gas

(GHG) concentrations. Causes of climate change have been reviewed by a wide range of authors (Suswatch, 2009; Warren, 2006) to include burning of fossil fuel and the associated industrial and automobile emissions of CO, CO2, SO2 and NO2 and agricultural emission of NH4 from both crop and livestock production sectors and deforestation (UNEP, 2005). The main causes of climate change are reviewed hereunder.

2.2.3.1 Anthropogenic activities

According to McMichael, (2003), the Industrial Revolution in the 19th century increased the large-scale use of fossil fuels for industrial activities. These industries created jobs and thus people moved from rural areas to the cities. This trend is continuing even today. More and more land that is covered with vegetation has been cleared to make way for houses. Natural resources are being used extensively for construction, industries, transport, and consumption. According to United Nation

Environmental Programme UNEP, (2011), trees help to regulate the climate by taking up CO2 from the atmosphere, and immense amounts of carbon are stored in the world's forests. When forests are cut down, the carbon stored in the trees is released into the atmosphere as CO2, adding to the greenhouse effect. On top of that, when a forest is destroyed, it can no longer absorb CO2 from the atmosphere and thus

leading into concentration of carbondioxide in the atmosphere with its associated impacts (McMichael, 2003).

2.2.3.2 Effects of greenhouse gases on climate change

A greenhouse gas is a gas that emits radiation and absorbs thermal infrared range

(IPCC, 2001).) According to 4th IPCC assessment report (IPCC2007), the primary greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are ozone (O3), nitrous oxide (NO2), methane

(CH4), carbon dioxide (CO2) and water vapour (H20). Greenhouse gases greatly affect the Earth’s temperature averaging about 33 C° colder than the present average of 14 °C (IPCC, 2001). According to the United Nation Environmental programme

UNEP, (2011), human induced green house gases include CO2, NH4, NO2 and CFCS.

2.2.3.2.1 Carbon dioxide emissions

The greenhouse gas most commonly produced by human activities is carbon dioxide

(CO2). It is responsible for some 63% of man-made global warming. One of the main sources of CO2 in the atmosphere is the combustion of fossil fuels coal, oil and gas

(UNEP, 2011). Over the past two and a half centuries, societies have burnt increasing amounts of fossil fuels to power machines, generate electricity, heat buildings and transport people and goods. Since the Industrial Revolution in 1750 the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased by around 40%, and it continues to rise

(UNEP, 2011).

2.2.3.2.2 Methane

According to the United Nation Environmental Programme (UNEP, 2011), methane

(CH4) is the most common greenhouse gas after CO2. Methane is responsible for

some 19% of global warming from human activities. Methane is emitted during the decomposition of fertilizers and paddy production. The livestock contributes about

80% of cattle emission within the agricultural sector. Methane is by-product of cattle and other ruminants during enteric food fermentation. The main sources of Methane gas are agriculture, fossil fuel extraction and the decay of organic waste in landfills sites.

2.2.3.2.3 Nitrous oxide

Similarly, The United Nation Environmental Programme (UNEP, 2011) nitrous oxide (NO2) is among of green house gas that pollutes the atmosphere. Emission source of nitrous oxide includes nitrogen fertilizer, the combustion of fossil fuel and some industrial process; including nylon production (UNEP, 2011) nitrous oxide is responsible for around 6% of manmade global warming.

2.2.3.2.4 Chlorofluorocarbons

According to Hansen et al. (2001), other halocarbons such as hydro chlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), hydro fluorocarbons (HFCs), per fluorocarbons

(PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), together called F-gases, are often used in coolants, foaming agents, fire extinguishers, solvents, pesticides, and aerosol propellants. Unlike water vapor and ozone, these F-gases have a long atmospheric lifetime, and some of these emissions affect the climate for many decades or centuries.

2.2.3.3 Natural causes of climate change

According to Warren (2006), natural causes of climate change may include.

Variations in the earth's orbital characteristics and atmospheric carbon dioxide variations.

2.2.3.3.1 Variations in the earth's orbital characteristics

According to Warren (2006), in support of Milankovitch theory suggested that, variations in three of the Earth’s orbital characteristics are responsible for some past climatic change. The basic idea behind this theory suggests that, solar radiation that is received on the Earth's surface vary according to three cyclic events. The theory further suggests that, eccentricity being the first cyclical variation controls the shape of the Earth's orbit around the Sun. The orbit gradually changes from being elliptical to being nearly circular and then back to elliptical in a period of about 100,000 years.

The greater the eccentricity of the orbit, the greater the variation in solar energy received at the top of the atmosphere between the Earth's closest and farthest approach to the Sun.

2.2.3.3.2 Variations in atmospheric carbon dioxide

Moreover, Warren (2006) studies of long term climate change have discovered a connection between carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere and mean global temperature. Carbon dioxide is one of the more important gases responsible for climate change. Certain atmospheric gases, like methane, carbon dioxide and water vapor, are able to alter the long waves radiation emitted from the Earth's surface. The net result of this process and the re-emission of long wave back to the

Earth's surface increase the quantity of heat energy in the Earth's climatic system.

2.2.4 Global warming

Global Warming is the increase of Earth's average surface temperature due to effect of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels or from deforestation, which trap heat that would escape from Earth (Suswatch, 2009).

2. 2.5 Causes of global warming

The main causes of global warming are due to the increased of the gaseous elements in the atmosphere that emit and absorb radiations. These gases are carbon dioxide

(CO2), methane (CH4) chrolofluoro carbons (CFCS) and nitrous oxide (NO2). Some of these gases exist naturally and some are human made in the earth’s atmosphere, but when excessive, they keeps the atmosphere warmer and inhabitable (Suswatch,

2009). Main causes of green house emission include agricultural activities, deforestation, automobile and industrial emissions and household items such as coolants and refrigeration.

2.2.5.1 Agricultural emissions

Emissions from agricultural activities include decomposition of manure that produce

(NO2) and livestock keeping producing (CH4). Agricultural sector is a main contributor in the gas emissions and land use effects thought to cause climate change.

Agriculture contributes directly to greenhouse gas emissions through practices such as rice production and the raising of livestock (Wandiga and Shem, 2006).

Agriculture contributes to greenhouse gas increases through land use in four main ways; CO2 releases linked to deforestation, Methane released from rice cultivation,

Methane releases from enteric fermentation in cattle and nitrous oxide released from fertilizer application (Wandiga and Shem, 2006).

2.2.5.2 Emissions from automobiles and Industries

The main gases produced from automobiles and industries are carbon dioxide (CO2) and carbon monoxide (CO), and Sulphur dioxide (SO2). The latter gases arise from incomplete combustion of fossil fuels and coal that represent main energy sources.

The problem is increasing number of automobiles and processing industries that in turn exacerbate greenhouse gases.

2.2.6 Impacts of climate change

According to The United Nation Environmental Programme (UNEP, 2011), climate change has brought about severe and possibly permanent alterations of the Earth’s ecological, geological and biological systems. There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities. These changes have led to the emergence of large-scale environmental hazards to extreme weather depletion leading into loss of biodiversity, stress to food shortages and spread of infectious diseases (IPCC, 2001). A wide range of impacts of climate change have been reviewed to include drought, altered precipitation pattern and elevated temperatures.

2.2.6.1 Influence of climate change on drought

According to the 4th IPCC Assessment report (IPCC, 2007), warming of global system is unequivocal. The 4th IPCC Assessment report predicts that progress of global warming will increase the frequency of extreme weather events such as heavy floods and drought and increased health hazards through infectious diseases. It may lead to food crisis resulting on depletion of water resources. The Inter Governmental

Panel on Climate Change 4th Assessment report (IPCC, 2OO7), puts Africa at high

risk of suffering seriously as result of this phenomenon. Addressing climate change for Africa and Tanzania in particular given its vulnerability to the adverse impacts is thus essential (URT, 2009).

For Tanzania adverse impacts of climate change are vivid in almost all sectors of the economy, the key examples are severe and recurrent drought in past few years that triggered devastating power crisis in 2006 (Mwandoysa et al. 1998). The Drop of water levels of Lake Victoria, Lake Tanganyika, Lake Manyara and Lake Jipe and the dramatic recession of 7 km of Lake Rukwa in about 50 years and the Loss of eighty percent of glacier on Mount Kilimanjaro since 1912 with the projection that the whole of the glacier might have gone by 2025 (URT, 2009).

2.2.6.2 Influence of climate change on altered precipitation patterns

Evidence exists to support the fact that, climate change has been associated with altered rainfall amount and distribution including poor precipitation which is mainly manifested in lowering of water levels in rivers, springs and underground aquifers.

Poor precipitation has adverse impacts to communities who depend on the land for their survival (UNHSP, 2008). According to Initial National Communications (INC,

2003), rainfall pattern and soil moisture vary due to changes in mean temperatures thus affecting run off of lakes and rivers hence affecting the daily livelihood of the local communities through fishing and traditional farming irrigation system (VAR,

2003). According to Stern report, (2006) temperature, precipitation and water availability is central to agriculture, with productivity being optimal at a particular water balance. Generally, Stern report, (2006) if precipitation is decreased or increased then productivity decrease. Although an increase in global average

precipitation is projected to increase, such variations in precipitation patterns are expected to greatly impact agriculture, in terms of yield, distribution of crops across the landscape, opportunities for new crops and the expansion of marginal agricultural practices (Stern, 2006). Furthermore, Stern report (2006), increased precipitation probably results in a greater risk of erosion, but also provide the soil with better hydration, depending on the intensity of the rain. Soil erosion increases in regions with increased frequency and severity of rainfall, particularly in winter. Nutrient leaching increase, but likewise salt levels in soil increase due to drought.

2.2.7 Effect of climate change on agricultural production

Impacts of climate change affects agricultural production globally due to the effects on plant growth and yield from elevated CO2, higher temperatures, altered precipitation and transpiration regimes, and increased frequency of extreme events, as well as modified weed, insect pests and pathogen pressure (IPCC, 2001).

According to the Inter Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2001) climate change affect agriculture locally or at the regional scale and also have a sustained and increasing impact on agricultural systems, through increasing temperature, increasing greenhouse gases, and extreme weather events such as flood, hurricanes, drought and heavy rainfall. Similarly, Rosenzweig (2002) in Africa for example, southern Africa has been projected to lose over 30% of its maize yield by 2030. In addition, Lobell et al. (2008) over 10% losses of important staple crops such as maize, rice and millet are projected for South Asia within the same time period. Even small changes in temperature and rainfall have significant effects on the quality of cereals, fibre, beverage crops, fruits and medicinal plants.

2.2.7.1 Effect of increasing temperatures on agriculture

According to Easter et al. (2007), global food production is projected to increase overall with increases in average local temperatures of 1–3°C, but if temperature rises above 3°C then global food production will decrease (Stern, 2006). Moreover,

Stern (2006) temperature for example is fundamental in determining crop quality, quantity and where it can be grown. In addition, Stern (2006) any changes in temperature through climate change has large impacts on crop production. Also,

Easter et al. (2007) all stages of crop development are sensitive to temperature. Crop production is generally accelerated in a linear fashion within certain temperature boundaries, for example, between 10°C and 30°C for wheat but with extreme temperatures the relationship becomes non-linear and increasingly difficult to predict. On the other hand, Stern, (2006) state that, higher temperatures often lead to heat stress which can result in increasing sterility and lower overall productivity in crops.

Similarly, Easter et al. (2007) projected that, as temperature rises there is increased evaporation from plants and soils resulting in increased water requirements while lowering water availability, which cause further stress to the crop. According to the

4th Assessment report (IPCC, 2007), in Europe, temperature increases lead to a pole ward migration of suitable cropping areas and a reduction in the growing period of determinate crops e.g. cereals and root crops.

2.2.8 Coffee production trend in Tanzania

According to TACRI, (2008) Tanzania’s production of coffee is currently about

48,000 tons, or about 0.7 percent of the world’s output of 7.02 million tons per year.

For the past 15 years or so coffee production in Tanzania showed varying trends.

Coffee production moderately declined from the early 1990s to 1998 after which it gradually increased until 2003 (Baffes, 2003). Areas under coffee cultivation had expanded during the 1970s and 1980s when prices were more favorable but declined thereafter. From 1980/81 to 1998/99 coffee sales declined from 61,514 tons to

47,050 tons (World Bank, 2003. According to Baffes, (2003), coffee output declined from a nine-season pre-1994-95 average of 50,918 tons of a five season post-1994/95 average of 45,065 tons, a 13% decline. Yields also declined over a long term from

377 in 1972-73 to 401 in 1991-92 to 234 in 1998-99. The Tanzania Coffee Board estimates the current area of production in the country to be 250,000 ha compared to the area suitable for coffee production, which are 650,000 ha. Production of both

Arabica and Robusta coffee was lowest in 1993/94.

Annual coffee production trend in Tanzania 1989/1990 to 2001/2002

Figure: 1 Annual coffee production trend in Tanzania 1989/1990 to 2001/2002

Source: (TCB, 2008)

2.2.9 Impacts of climate change on coffee production

According to Carmago et al. ( 2009), a great degree of uncertainty still exists with regard to how individual producing regions are affected, and how climate change impacts overall coffee production in different parts of the world. For instance if temperatures rise by 3oC by the end of 21st century areas that are currently too cold for growing coffee could become suitable (Carmago et al., 2009). As temperature rises, coffee ripens more quickly, leading to a fall in quality (Baker et al., 2009). On the other hand, Carmago et al. (2009) temperature increases affect different aspects of the metabolism of coffee trees, such as flowering, photosynthesis, respiration and product composition, which in turn adversely affect coffee yields. In addition,

Hansen (2005) temperature increases favour the proliferation of certain pests and diseases, as well as permitting their dispersion to regions where they were previously not presents.

Similarly, Baker et al. (2009) the process of photosynthesis becomes limited when water stress occurs, due to closing of the stoma and reduction in other physiological activities of the coffee plant. Furthermore, Carmago et al. (2009), other climatic factors can reduce productivity, such as adverse air temperatures during different growth stages and thus affect coffee production in most producing region. According to Van Asten (2013), climate change affects coffee production by affecting the flowering of coffee and bean filling. Coffee plant needs distinct dry and wet seasons.

After the dry season, during the first rains, flowering occurs. When rains are not well distributed throughout the season, flowering cannot happen continuously (Van Asten,

2013).

2.2.9.1 Impacts of climate change on coffee production in developed countries

Studies of climate change by Caste et al. (2003) reported that, over the past 2 to 3 decades in coffee growing zones of Mexico, Guatemala and Honduras temperatures have risen by between 0.20C and 1oC and in some cases rainfall has declined by up to

15%. In Nicaragua rainfall has declined by an average of 30%, while temperature has risen by 1-2oC. These changes would most likely reduce coffee production in those areas. According to Jaramillo et al. (2009), the consequences of the El Niño’s effect on coffee production can be seen by studying its impact on Colombia. El Niño events in the Andean region of Colombia caused a decrease in the amount of rain and an increase in solar radiation and temperature this in turn caused decrease in coffee production due to reduced availability of water on the ground, especially in low-lying areas with less than 1,500 mm/year precipitation levels.

Similarly, Jaramillo et al. (2009) states that, during El Niño episodes, there is a high risk of loss of coffee beans and since the lack of water at critical stages of development of the fruit affects bean quality. Also, diseases increases have been recorded in coffee berry borer infestation in Colombia. On the other hand, Carmago et al. (2009) in Peru rising temperatures and erratic weather patterns are changing historic trends in coffee growing areas. Crops appear to start earlier and farmers are reporting that high-altitude coffee trees are maturing at times more typical of their low-land counterparts. Also, Caste et al. (2003) main changes reported so far are temperature increases matched by sudden cold fronts, reduced rainfall in some areas affected coffee harvest in most parts of Peru. In addition, Jaramillo et al. (2009)

Guatemala, Nicaragua and El Salvador have been particularly badly affected by insect pest and disease infestation and thus coffee production is dwindling.

Provisional production estimates for Guatemala’s 2012 to2013 harvest show a decline of volume of 6%, Guatemala’s national coffee association, attributes to the expected effects of climate change such as virulent attacks of coffee diseases.

2.2.9.2 Impacts of climate change on coffee production in East Africa

According to Agrawala et al. (2003), the poor distribution of rainfall and increased drought and temperature in East Africa interfere in the crop phenology, and consequently in productivity and quality of coffee in most producing regions in East

Africa. In addition, Agrawala et al. (2003) projected that, temperature above 23°C often lead to loss of coffee quality in East African producing areas. Continuous exposure of coffee plants to daily temperatures as high as 30° in some parts of East

Africa like Uganda and Rwanda results not only in reduced growth but also in abnormalities of coffee plant such as yellowing of leaves (Meena and Sharif, 2003).

Relatively high air temperature during blossoming, especially when associated with a prolonged dry season, causes poor flowering of coffee plant and hence affects coffee production (Agrawala et al., (2003). As for example in 2004/2005 and 2005/2006 coffee production decreased in Karagwe at the rate of 6816 (t) and 6078 (t) respectively. The decrease in production in those years was attributed to weather related events including prolonged dry spell, elevated temperatures and drought that hit the zone and affected coffee plant during flowering (KDP, 2013). Studies by

Agrawala et al. (2003) on coffee production in Rungwe district in Mbeya observed that, decline in coffee production is associated with rainfall amount and distribution, dry spell and drought which exacerbate drying of flowers and young berries.

2.2.10 Coping strategies to impacts of climate change on coffee production

Coping to climate change includes responses of actual or expected climate changes or their effects. Such responses include change in process practices or structure either voluntary or planned to minimize potential damages or take advantages of the opportunities associated with changes in climate. Coping strategies reduce vulnerability and enhance adaptive capacity or the ability of the people and systems to adjust to climate change (IPCC, 2001). Coping to climate change involves changes in agricultural management practices in response to changes in climate conditions.

However, in developing countries, coping to climate change is more challenging due to a lack of resources (NAPA, 2007). Coping is about enabling people to manage the risks that arise from climate change. It is about investing in basic infrastructures and programs to enable people livelihoods against the effects of climate change.

2.2.10.1 Diversification and intensification of production systems

According to NAPA, (2007), diversification and intensification of production systems is an example of coping strategies to impacts of climate change in most of coffee producing societies. Diversification is the mixed activities whereby crop farmers can mix two to three activities so as to sustain life (Wringley, 1988). Typical diversification among communities may be done by crop farmers can mix crop production while keeping livestock. Force behind diversification is the adverse impacts of climate change which affect the original activity. For example, crop and coffee growers nowadays are keeping livestock so that, they can get products from the kept livestock to be substituted in their crop production.

For instance crop farmers get manure to be used in the farm from livestock but also get meat, milk and eggs as potential food substitute. Through comprehensive diversification communities get to intensify their activities in the given place and time.

2.2.10.2 Application of mulching

Mulching involves covering the soil with a layer of dry vegetation (Porter and

Semenov, (2005). Common materials that are used for mulching includes dry grass, maize, banana leaves and coffee pruning’s. Mulching have many benefits to farmers, including, reducing the loss of soil moisture, prevention of soil erosion, which is particularly important on coffee grown on steep slopes, increasing soil nutrient levels, improving the structure of the soil and suppression of weeds (Suswatch,

2009).

2.2.11 Adaptation strategies towards impacts of climate change on coffee

production

According to Carmago et al. (2009), there are a number of initiatives to promote adaptation ranging from community based analysis of climate risks and opportunities, sustainable production techniques, such as agroforest, new varieties better adapted to future climate conditions, conservation of soil and water sources, diversification of the production system and income sources, improved access to climate information for coffee Producers, weather insurance products, financing to invest in adaptation and mitigation, payment for environmental services, organization among small-scale farmers, and value chain adaptation strategies.

2.2.11.1Adoption of new varieties better adapted to climatic condition

One of the major constraints to productivity and the development and growth of

Tanzania’s coffee industry has been caused by the continued cultivation of old varieties that are of low yielding and highly susceptible to the major diseases such as coffee berry disease (CBD), coffee leaf rust (CLR), and coffee wilt disease (CWD)

(TaCRI, 2008). One of Tanzania Coffee Research Institute (TaCRI) major objective is to identify high yielding varieties resistant to CBD and CLR for Arabica and CWD resistant Robusta clones, both with large bean size and high cup quality that perform optimally within the diverse coffee production areas of Tanzania. For the past 10 years, coffee improvement programme has made notable achievements in attaining this objective. A total of 15 improved Arabica hybrids and four (4) Robusta varieties that combines disease resistance, high productivity and excellent cup taste have been developed and approved for commercial use in Tanzania by the National Variety

Release Committee.

These new varieties are currently under accelerated multiplication and are used in a massive national replanting programme (TaCRI, 2008). The salient features of the 15 new Arabica hybrids and four (4) CWD resistant Robusta varieties contribute to green revolution of the coffee industry in Tanzania. This is because, production is 2 to 3 times than that of traditional commercial varieties, start bearing much earlier than traditional varieties, possess vegetative vigour leading to greater production stability, offer a cup quality to or better than that of traditional varieties, reduces cost of production because of resistance to CBD or CLR or CWD (TCB, 2012).

2.2.11.2 Adoption of sustainable production techniques

According to Suswatch, (2009), sustainable production such as intercropping has multiple benefits to communities as it minimizes the uses of scarce land resources which may be the problems for an individual to secure and control. Land fragmentation is minimized and costs of farm supervision are reduced. Intercropping crops in farms helps taller crops like trees to provide shelter to keep soil moisture for other shorter crops. Similarly, sustainable production such as shade trees and other plants like banana protect coffee trees from strong winds, strong rains and excessive fluctuations of air temperature. Their leaf litter enhances soil fertility when they decompose to humus (MAFC, 2008).

2.3 Conceptual frame work

Conceptual framework refers to the broad idea and principle taken from relevant fields of inquiry and used to structure a subsequent presentation. Conceptual framework makes the meaning of subsequent findings. Forms part of the agenda for negotiation to be scrutinized and tested, reviewed and formed as a result of investigation (Rosenrhal and Rosnow, 1991). Conceptual frame work depicts the causal effect relationship together with the concerned intervening variables. Figure 2 defines the inter relatedness of variable independent, dependent and intermediate variables that are considered in the current study.

2.3.1 Independent variables

Refers to the status of the presumed cause or changes which lead to changes in the

status of other variables (Rosenrhal and Rosnow, 1991). In the current study the independent variable are the causes of climate change through natural causes like volcanic eruptions, ocean current, the Earths orbital changes and solar variation or can be due to human causes including green house gases such as carbon dioxide

(CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (NO2) which are mostly increased due to burning of fossil fuels and changes of the land use including agricultural practices and deforestation. Climate change affects the meteorological variable, such as temperature, rainfall, solar radiation sun light and humidity which lead to the increase or decrease of coffee production in the area. Climate change affects the hydrology of an area including underground water level, water temperature and river flow, by impacting precipitation, evaporation, and soil moisture content and hence in turn affect crops and coffee production in particular.

2.3.2 Dependent variables

Refers to the status of the effects or outcomes in which the researcher is interested

(Rosenrhal and Rosnow, 1991). In the current study dependent variable includes increase in surface temperatures, drought and prolonged dry spell and hence adverse effects on crops and coffee production in particular. The increase of precipitation due to climate change leads to an increase of outflow while temperature rise increases evaporation, resulting in the reduction of outflow. The decrease in rainfall increase water stress on coffee that could reduce coffee productivity.

Impacts of droughts also affect irrigation water supply due to changes in river flow regimes. The increase in evapotranspiration may lead to the reductions in soil moisture storage which may affect coffee productivity. In addition, increased rainfall could lead to nutrient leaching, loss of topsoil and water logging, all of which affect

coffee production. Increased incidence of crop pests and diseases (rust fungus and the coffee berry disease and borer insects) are also expected to have impacts on coffee production due to higher temperatures and rainfall at different developmental stages of the coffee plants which can reduce coffee productivity.

2.3.3 Intermediate variables

Intermediate variables refer to some existing characters of the subject participating in the study, such as gender, age, intelligence, physical or psychiatric disorder (Bartos,

2002). This can affect the dependent or independent variables in any way. In the current study the policies, programmes, institution and regulation are intermediate variable that might influence both causes and impacts of climate change on coffee production.

Similarly, adaptation strategies such as adoption of new varieties, irrigation farming, diversification and intensification of production system are intermediate variables that can also influence both causes and impacts of climate change on coffee production. Good governance help in adaptation strategies to combat impacts of climate change and reducing its effects on coffee production also the availability of institution, regulations policies and programs that deals with climate change help farmers in adapting the changing climate and the associated impacts.

Independent variables Intermediate variables Dependent variables

 Governance Impacts of climate

Causes of climate  Institutions change change  Regulations  Persistent drought (i) Anthropogenic  Policies  Programme  Temperate activities: increase  Industrial emission  Changes on  Agricultural activities rainfall pattern  Infrastructure  Dry spell construction  Global warming (ii) Natural causes:

 Changes on earth’s surface (i) Adaptation, mitigation and coping  changes on the angle strategies of tilt among others  Planting of new varieties such as clonal

coffee

 Irrigation farming

 Diversification and intensification of production systems  Sustainable production techniques  Afforestation and reaforestation progamme  Proper farm managements such as weeding  Application of mulching Figure 2: Conceptual frame work (Researcher, 2014).

2.4 Research gap

The efforts to make sure that the adverse impacts of climatic change on agricultural production crops and coffee production in particular are worked out have been done

(FAO, 2005). However, information based on impacts of climate change such as dry spell, drought, elevated temperatures and insect pests and diseases infestation on agricultural production and coffee production in particular is still not enough.

Similarly, with changing climate it is evident that both insect pests and diseases affect production by directly affecting flowering potential, pollination and berry formation. Effects of climate change on coffee production are directly related to tolerance limit of temperature, moisture and gases such as CO2 in the atmosphere, drought stress and indirectly through its influence on insect pests and diseases.

However, information is lacking on the influence of climate change on reduced yield and quality of coffee. Most of insect pests and diseases are not new while few are emerging probably as related to climate change impacts. It is hardly difficult to quantify explicitly to what extent has climate change increased insect pests and diseases severity in coffee production and what effect has this made on both coffee yields and quality aspects. This area would need further study.

CHAPTER THREE

3.0 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3.1The Study Area

This study was carried out in Karagwe district in north western Tanzania. The district covers 7,716 km² of which 7,558 km² is dry land and 158 km² is water. The study was conducted in ten wards, namely, Ihembe, Rugu, Nyaishozi, Nyakabanga,

Nyakasimbi, Nyakakika, Kihanga, Kayanga and Bugene. The areas under study were selected based on their coffee production potentials.

3.1.1 Location

Karagwe district lies between 31° 10' 25" E and 1° 26' 15" S latitudes. The district lies between 31° 00' 00" E and 31° 10' 24" E longitudes east of Greenwich (KDP,

2013). The district borders the republic of Uganda in the north, the republic of

Rwanda in the west (KDP, 2013). The Kagera river forms the boundary between

Karagwe and the republic of Rwanda and Uganda. The districts of Ngara and

Biharamulo border the district in the south while Muleba and Bukoba districts boarder to the east.

3.1.2 Climate

Most of the district has a tropical highland climate. The annual average temperature is 26°C. Rainfall distribution is bi-modal with peak rains from September to

December and from March to May (TMA, 2013). Most parts of the district receive rainfall between 800 mm/yr to 1000mm/yr. The high ridges get over 1000 mm/yr and generally rainfall decreases from East to West (KDP, 2013). The district experience two rainy seasons, long rains starts from early March to mid May while short rains start from October to December. In most cases there is no rain especially during

January and February. Currently, there is a noted shift of rainfall patterns characterized by rain season delays accompanied by unpredictable distribution

(TMA, 2013).

3.1.3 Demography

According to the 2012 National Population Sensus (NBS, 2012), Karagwe district had 332,020 people among them women being 168,156 and men 163,864 population.

Population is believed to increase at the rate of 2.9 per year (KDP, 2013). The dominant ethinic group is the Nyambo, although there is a small ethinic group of

Haya. A lot of people are migrating from neighboring district of Muleba, Bukoba and

Biharamulo into Karagwe, in search of fertile land. There are also migrants from neighboring countries such as Uganda, Burundi and Rwanda moving into Karagwe in search of pastures and agriculture (KDP, 2013).

3.1.4 Vegetation

Natural vegetation is categorized as savannah bush land, interspersed with patches of natural forests in plateaus and papyrus reeds and Acacia species in the lowlands along the riverbanks and swamps. Anthropogenic activities have been associated with deforestation. Current forest area is estimated at 93,000ha of forest under conservation (KDP, 2013).

3.1.5 Land use

According to Karagwe District Profile, (KDP, 2013) greater part of the district is cultivated and the remaining are protected areas (forests, game reserves and ranches).

Some areas are being left uncultivated due to terrain factors, especially being on steep slopes and swampy areas. Livestock grazing is also practiced in

wooded and open grasslands. Land is more intensively used in the northern part of the district than in the southern part.

3.1.6 Agriculture

Agriculture is the major economic activity in the district. Main subsistence crops are banana, beans and maize for local consumption, cash crops includes coffee, sunflowers and vanilla. The average farm size is two (2) ha per household the limitation being availability of fertile land (KDP, 2013). The average household income is estimated at U$ 26.4 income per capital (KDP, 2013).

3.1.7 Farming systems

The predominant farming system is subsistence under rain-fed agriculture, practiced by more than 90% of inhabitants. There are three main predominant farming systems in Karagwe district, namely, Kibanja, Kikamba and Rweya (KDP, 2013). The

Kibanja system comprises of banana plot normally inter cropped with coffee, beans, maize and other annual crops and trees. The Kikamba system on the other hand is practiced in the periphery of Kibanja and is used for cultivation of annual crops and sometimes left fallow. The soils in the Kikamba are of generally medium quality.

The Rweya system is found in areas of low fertile land and mostly used for pastures as well as collection of mulching and thutch grass. Livestock keeping is a second economic activity next to crop farming in the District. Both traditional and exotic breeds are kept. As per 2013 (year) number of cattle, goats and sheep were estimated at 144,246, 134, 355, and 13, herds, respectively.

3.1.8 Administrative Divisions

Karagwe district was formally divided into four (4) Divisions, twenty eight (28)

Wards, 109 Villages, and 1162 Hamlets. However, during the financial year

2010/2011, the district was split into 5 Divisions, 22 Wards, 73 Villages and 725 as shown on Table 1 (KDP, 2013).

Table 1: Administrative units of Karagwe district as per 2014

Divisions Wards Villages Hamlets 1. Kituntu 1. Rugera 2. Kihanga 3. Kanoni 8 204 4. Igurwa 5.Kituntu 2. Bugene I. Bugene 2. Nyakahanga 3. Kayanga 13 169 4. Chonyonyo 5 .Ihanda 3. Nyaishozi 1. Nyaishozi 2. Ihembe 3. Nyakasimbi 14 137 4. Rugu 4.Nyabiyonza 1. Nyabiyonza 2. Kibondo 3. Nyakabanga 17 100 4.Bweranyang 5.Nyakakika 1. Nyakakika 2. Kiruruma 11 115 TOTAL 22 73 725 Source: (KDP, 2013).

3.2 Research Design

Research design is the arrangement of condition for collection and analysis of data in manner that to combine relevance to research purpose with economy in procedures

(Kothari, 2004). In the current work a case study design was adopted as it could provides analysis of the theme under study. The study was supported by appropriate data collection methods, namely interviews, field observations, and documentary review. Multiple data collection on the impacts of climate change on coffee production was enhanced.

3.3 Study population

According to Ndunguru, (2007), population is a group of individuals, objects or items from which samples are taken for measurements. The study involved District

Agricultural Officers, coffee growers in the selected 10 wards, namely, Ihembe,

Rugu, Nyaishozi, Nyakabanga, Nyakasimbi, Ndama, Nyakakika, Kihanga, Kayanga and Bugene, officers from village Cooperatives Societies (Karagwe Development

Cooperative Union, KDCU), Karagwe Coffee Estate Union, (KCEU)), and governmental officials (Village Executive Officers (VEOs) and Ward Executive

Officers (WEOs)). A total population of this study was 21,158 people.

3.4 Sampling Procedure

A simple random sampling technique was chosen over other sampling methods as it ensures the likelihood of any individual element being included in the study and hence avoids biasness. Purposive sampling was adopted among experts from

DAICO, Officers from KDCU, KCEU due to their inherent knowledge on impact of climate change on coffee production in the district.

3.5 Sample

A sample is a finite part of a population which is undertaken to represent the entire population (Kothari, 2004). Sample size involved in the study was estimated based on a formula:

Where: n = sample size, N= Total population, e = standard error (1 – 10%), 1 = constant as detailed by (Rwegoshora, 2006). Distribution of the sample is shown in

Table 2.

Table 2: Distribution of respondents in the Study

Respondents Categories Population Sample size % of sample Officials from (DAICO) 12 4 2.8 Officials from (KDCU) 18 6 4.3 Individual famers 21,000 80 57.1 Ward Executive Offices (WEOs) 42 20 14.3 Village Executive Offices (VEOs) 72 15 10.7 Officials from (KECU) 24 15 10.7 TOTAL 21,158 140 100.0 Source: Field research, (2014).

3.6 Data Collection methods

Methods used for of data collection included interviews, Key informant interviews,

Focus Group Discussion (FGD), field observations and documentary review, also questionnaire was used as a tool during data collection.

3.6.1 Questionnaire survey

A questionnaire contains a list of questions to which an individual has to respond by choosing his/her best appropriate answers from the options provided 45

(Ogunniyi, 1992). Questionnaires were adopted so as to give the respondents enough time to pass through the questions and respond to them accordingly. Both open and closed questionnaires were adopted (Table 2).

3.6.1.1 Questionnaire pre-testing

Questionnaires were pre- tested among 40 respondents from Bujuruga, Kishao,

Misha, Rugu, Lubale, Kibogoizi, Kayanga, Kishoju and Katanda villages. Pre-testing also helped to know whether questions are clear, specific, answerable, interconnected and substantially relevant (Kothari, 2004). The questions were then restructured accordingly so as to capture the intended study objectives.

3.6.1.2 Administering of the questionnaires

A total of 80 households from the sampled wards were interviewed. Each ward had different sample size depending on production potentials of that particular ward, population size and the number of farmers in that ward as indicated in Table 2.

3.6.2 Interviews

Interview is a process of interaction between the researcher and interviewees in terms of oral verbal responses (Behr, 1983; Osulvan et al., 1989). A total of 50 respondents were interviewed as shown in Table 3.

Table 3: Number of Interviewees

Respondents categories Interviewees % of interviewees Officials from (DAICO) 4 8 Officials from (KDCU) 6 12 Officials from (KECU) 8 16 Ward Executive Officers (WEO) 20 40 Village Executive Officers (VEO) 12 24 Total 50 100 Source: field research 2013.

3.6.3 Documentary Review

Documentation refers to data collection from secondary sources (Ndunguru, 2007).

In the study, a number of official documents, namely, published books, research reports, report manual and other unpublished organizational documents such as office files were reviewed. The tool was adopted as it triangulates previous responses by cross-checking the consistence of the concerned information on a study theme

(i.e., impacts of climate change on coffee production in the study area).

3.6.4 Focus group discussion

A total of two Focus Group Discussion (FGD) sessions were adopted each comprising 12 to 18 respondents per ward as detailed by Stewart et al. (1990). The

FGD sessions were carried out among selected representatives of three (3) wards

(Ihembe, Nyaishozi and Rugu) that were selected based on their coffee productivity potential. The FGD sessions were also conducted among KDCU and KECU officials.

3.6.5 Key informant interviews

Key informant interviews involved leaders, Ward Executive Officers, Village leaders, clerks and the retired officers as well as officials from KDCU, KECU and

some few officials from DAICO. Checklists that were covered included climate change concepts, impacts of climate change on coffee production, coffee production trend on the area of study, the adaptation, mitigation and coping strategies against climate change in the study area.

3.6.6 Observations

Direct observations on impacts of climate change on coffee production were made through transect walks across farmer’s field as well as during the socio economic survey.

3.7 Data Processing and Analysis

Data analysis is the process of inspecting, leaning, transforming and modeling data with the goal of highlighting useful information suggesting conclusion and reporting decision making (Ndunguru, 2007). Data collected for this study required different analytical packages.

3.7.1 Questionnaire survey

The edited and coded data obtained through questionnaire was subjected to analysis using statistical packages for social science (SPSS) version 16 and Statistical

Analytical System (SAS), Inc. (ver. 9). Data on impacts of climate change on coffee production and the associated adaptation, mitigation and coping strategies were analyzed into frequency and percentage using SPSS. On the other hand, data on coffee production trend was analyzed into means and standard errors using Statistical

Analytical System (SAS), Inc. (ver. 9).

3.7.2 Key informant interview

A content analysis was carried out for data collected from Key informant respondents on impacts of climate change on coffee production.

3.8 Validity and Reliability

According to Saunder et al. (2000), reliability and validity are the two most important quality control objects in any research design.

3.8.1 Validity

According to Stewart et al. (1990), validity refers to the quality that the procedure or an instrument used in research is accurate, correct, true, meaningful, and right.

Similarly, Triola (2001; 226) validity of data refers to how well the instrument measure what they are supposed to measure. On the other hand, validity refers to the degree to which the study accurately reflects or assesses the specific concept the researcher is attempting to measure (Krisnaswami, 2003). Validity is a measure of accuracy and whether the instruments of measurements are actually measuring what they were intended to measure (Kothari, 2004).

In the current study validity was attained first by use of systematic random sampling so as to reduce biasness, secondly through pre- testing of questionnaires to test the accuracy of specific concept on the study. Therefore validity in this study was achieved through proper identification of research problem, stating clearly research objectives and building a theoretical perspective on the impacts of climate change on coffee production on the study area.

3.8.2 Reliability

According to Saunder et al. (2000), reliability is the degree to which the instrument produces stable and consistent result. On the other hand, reliability is a matter of whether a particular technique is applied repeatedly to some objects would yield the same results each time (Babbie, 1990). Reliability is generally defined as how consistence a research procedure or instrument is (Triola, 2001). Therefore reliability of data was ensured by use of different methods and tools during data collection including interview, questionnaire and review of secondary data. Pre-testing of the questionnaire before actual data collection to determine their clarity and relevance to the objectives of the study also increased reliability, reliability was also ensured by the use of appropriate sampling techniques including random sampling and selection of appropriate sample size. To ensure reliability a pilot study was also conducted to test, if the instrument gives consistent result on the impact of climate on coffee production in the study area.

CHAPTER FOUR

4.0 RESULTS, PRESENTATION OF FINDINGS AND DISCUSSION

This chapter presents findings of both primary and secondary data sources on socio- demographic characteristics, coffee production trend, climate change impacts and the associated climate change adaptation, mitigation and coping strategies. Presentation of findings and discussion are organized according to research objectives.

4.1 Presentation of findings

4.1.1 Socio-demographic characteristics

Socio-demographic characteristics that were investigated among selected respondents of Ihembe, Rugu, Nyakakika, Nyakabanga, Kayanga, Nyakasimbi,

Nyaishozi, Bugene, Kihanga and Ndama were age, sex, education, marital status and occupation of respondents.

4.1.1.1 Age distribution

Age distribution among the studied population is presented in Table 4. About half of the respondents (47 %; N=38) were aged 57 years old and above. Other respondents were aged between 38 to 47 years old (17.5%; N= 14) compared to those aged between 28 to 37 year old (12.5%; N=10) as well as those aged between 18 to 27 years old (1.2%; N=1).

Table 4: Age distribution of the respondents

Age distribution (years) Frequency (N) % 18-27 1 1.2 28-37 10 12.5 38-47 14 17.5 48-57 17 21.2 57 and above 38 47.0 Total 80 100.0

4.1.1.2 Sex of respondents

Sex of respondents is presented Table 5. Majority of respondents were males (84 %;

N= 67) compared to females (16 %; N= 13).

Table 5: Sex of respondents

Sex Frequency (N) % Male 67 84 Female 13 16 Total 80 100

4.1.1.3 Education status of respondents

Education status of respondents is presented in Table 6. As was expected, majority of respondents were educated at primary education level (75 %; N= 60) compared to those educated at secondary education (18.8%; N=15) as well as tertiary education

(3.8%; N=3), on the other hand, some respondents of the studied community possessed informal education (2.5%; N=2).

Table 6: Education status of respondents

Level of education Frequency (N) % Informal education 2 2.5 Primary education 60 75.0 Secondary education 15 18.8 Tertiary education 3 3.8 Total 80 100.0

4.1.1.4 Marital status of respondents

Marital status of respondents is presented in Table 7. Majority of respondents were married (91.2%; N = 73) compared to unmarried individuals, divorced and widower individuals (Table 5).

Table 7: Marital status of respondents

Marital status Frequency (N) % Married 73 91.2 Single 4 5.0 Widower 3 3.8 Divorced 0 0 Total 80 100.0

4.1.1.5 Occupation of respondents

Occupation of respondents is shown in Table 8. Majority of respondents were farmers (67.5%; N= 54) compared to government employee (17.5%; N=14) and those engaged in petty trade business (15%; N= 12) (Table 8).

Table 8: Occupation of respondents

Occupation activities Frequency (N) % Farming 54 67.5 Government employee 14 17.5 Petty trade business 12 15.0 Total 80 100.0

4.1.1.6 Crop production

Subsistence crops and cash crops that are grown in Karagwe district are indicated in

Table 9. Majority of farmers (84%; N= 67) grow both cash crops and subsistence crops, compared to those who grow subsistence crops alone (16%; N=13). Banana is grown as the main subsistence crop in the area; other subsistence crops grown include maize, beans, cassava, millet, sorghum, and potatoes. Coffee represents the main cash crop in the area, other cash crops grown in the area include sun flowers and vanilla.

Table 9: Main crops

Type of crops grown Frequency (N) % Subsistence crops 13 16 Cash crops 0 0 Both subsistence crops and cash crops 67 84 Total 80 100

4.1.1.7 Coffee cropping systems

Coffee cropping systems are presented in Table 10. About half of the farmers

(51.2%; N= 41) were intercropping banana with coffee, compared to those intercropping coffee, trees and banana (20%; N= 16) and those growing coffee as pure stand (16.2%; N= 13). 54

Table 10: Coffee cropping systems

Cropping systems Frequency (N) % Pure stand coffee 13 16.2 Banana intercropped with coffee 41 51.2 Coffee, trees and banana intercropping 16 20.0 Total 80 100.0

4.1.2 Coffee production trend

Coffee production for the past decade showed variable trend across years as for example, in the year 2008/2009 recorded highest production averaging 36,131 tones as compared to 2004/2006 whereby lowest production was recorded averaging 6,078 and 6,816 tones, respectively, (Figure 3).

Figure 3: Coffee production trends in Karagwe district 2003/ 2004 to 2012/2013

Coffee production trend in ten sampled wards was highly variable across years (P<0,

0001) and wards (P<0, 0001). The yield was even variable both between years and within both wards as indicated in Table 9. Coffee production trend between

2003/2004 and 2012/2013 in Karagwe could be grouped in three production potentials. High production potential areas to include Nyakakika, Nyaishozi,

Nyakabanga and Nyakasimbi wards. On the other hand, Ndama, Rugu and Ihembe wards have medium production potential. Kayanga, Kihanga and Bugene were of low production potentials ranging from 703, 751 and 832 (t). Respectively (Table

11).

Table 11: Decade records of annual coffee production trends in ten wards 2003-

2012

Wards Mean production (t) Bugene 832.3±277.64 Ihembe 922.8±111.64 Kayanga 702.6±148.4 Kihanga 751.3±633.86 Ndama 1623.7±442.15 Nyaishozi 3410.7±1069.63 Nyakabanga 2245.9±545.6 Nyakakika 3341.2±981.05 Nyakasimbi 2218.9±599.63 Rugu 1957.3±464.04 Effect of Year *** Wards ***

Year* Wards ***

Source: Field research, 2014 *** = P<0. 001

Figure 4: Coffee production trends in ten wards 2003/ 2012

4.1.3 Impacts of climate change on coffee production

Table12 shows identified impacts of climate change on coffee production. Impacts of climate change that were identified include drought (18.1%; N= 75), insect pests and diseases infestations (17.3%; N= 72), storms (10%; N= 41) and elevated temperatures

(16.1%; N= 67). Other impacts identified included prolonged dry spell (13.7%; N=

57), poor distribution of rainfall (17.8%; N=74) and strong wind (7%; N= 29).

Table 12: Identified impacts of climate change affecting coffee production

Identified impacts Frequency (N) % Prolonged dry spell 57 13.7 Drought 75 18.1 Poor distribution of rainfall 74 17.8 Strong wind 29 7 Storms 41 10 Elevated temperatures 67 16.1 Insect pests and diseases infestations 72 17.3 Total 415 100.0

4.1.3.1 Identified insect pests affecting coffee production

Identified common insect pests on coffee production are presented in Table 13. The common coffee insect pests identified in the study included coffee berry borer

(Hypothenemus hampei), (17.3%), termites (Ancisttrotermes spp.), (16.2%), coffee berry moth (Prophantis smaragdina), (17%), coffee stem borer (Anthores leuconotus),

(16.5%; N=63), coffee thrips (Diarthrothrips coffee), (16.8%; N=64) and Antestia bugs (Antestiopsis spp) (15.7%; N=60).

Table 13: Identified common insect pests of coffee

Identified insect pests Scientific nomenclature Frequency (N) % Coffee berry borer Hypothenemus hampei 66 17.3 Termites Ancisttrotermes spp. 62 16.2 Coffee berry moth Prophantis smaragdina 65 17 Coffee stem borer Anthore leuconotus 63 16.5 Coffee thrips Diarthrothrips coffee 64 16.8 Antestia bugs Antestiopsis spp. 60 15.7 Total 382 100.0

4.1.3.2 Identified diseases affecting coffee production

Identified common diseases on coffee production are presented in Table 14. Identified common disease on coffee production included fusarium wilt (Gibeberella stilboides), (79%; N=63), coffee berry disease (Colletotrichum kahawae), (11.2%; N=

9) and coffee leaf rust disease (Hemileia vastatrix), (10%; N=8).

Table 14: Identified diseases on coffee production

Type of diseases Causative agent Frequency (N) % Coffee berry diseases Colletotrichum kahawae 9 11.2 Fusarium wilt Gibeberella stilboides 63 78.8 Coffee leaf rust Hemileia vastatrix 8 10.0 Total 80 100.0

Plate 1: Coffee berries affected by coffee berry disease in Misha village, Karagwe

district.

4.1.4 Adaptation strategies to impacts of climate change on coffee production

Adaptation strategies towards impacts of climate change on coffee production are presented in Table 15. About one fifth of the studied population were of the opinion that, adoption of new varieties better adapted to climate condition (25.9%; N=69) is a commonly practiced strategy toward impacts of climate change on coffee production in the study area. Other mentioned strategies towards impacts of climate change on coffee production includes adherence and adoption of sustainable production techniques such as mixed cropping (27.3%; N=75), diversification and intensification of production systems (24.7%; N=68), application of mulching (22.9%; N=63) which was singled out as an important strategy to overcome the impact of climate change on coffee production.

Table 15: Adaptation strategies to climate change on coffee production

Identified Adaptation Strategies Frequency (N) % 59

Adoption of new varieties such as clonal coffee 69 25.9 Application of mulching 63 22.9 Adoption of sustainable production techniques 75 27.3 Diversification and intensification of production systems 68 24.7 Total 275 100.0

4.1.5 Coping strategies towards impacts of climate change on coffee production

Coping strategies toward impacts of climate change on coffee production are presented in Table 16. The identified and presented coping strategies among households were, proper farm management such as agroforest (21.7%; N=76), adoption of sustainable production techniques such as crop rotation (22%; N=77) and application of mulching (18%; N=62) are commonly practiced by farmers. Other coping strategies towards impacts of climate change on coffee production includes enhanced water harvesting and application of traditional irrigation schemes (16%;

N=56), and the substitution of coffee with other agricultural crops (7.4%; N=26).

Table 16: Coping strategies against climate change impacts on coffee production

Identified Coping Strategies Frequency ( N) % Proper farm management techniques such as agroforest 76 21.7 Application of mulching 62 18 Water harvesting and application of traditional 56 16 irrigation schemes Adoption of sustainable production techniques e.g. 77 22 mixed cropping Substitution of coffee with other agricultural crops 26 7.4 Total 350 100.0

4.2 Discussion of the findings

4.2.1 Socio- demographic characteristics

4.2.1.1 Age distribution

The reported majority of respondents of Karagwe district aged 57 years and above suggests that coffee is grown by elderly farmers who possess required knowledge and experience on the cash crops. These results suggest that, the elderly farmers possess enough experiences including adaptation, mitigation as well as practicing local/ indigenous technologies to cope with the impacts of climate change (Nzomoi et al.,

1959).

4.2.1.2 Sex of respondents

The reflected higher number of males engaged in coffee production compared to females could be explained by cultural differences in natural resources management and ownership particularly land and agriculture in particular. Most cash crops such as coffee and sunflowers and even banana are owned by males compared to subsistence crops such as beans, maize, cassava and groundnuts that are managed and owned by

females. Participation of higher number of males than females in the current study reflect gender roles between males and females.

4.2.1.3 Education status of respondents

Majority of respondents being educated at primary school level reveal a general situation on education among many rural communities of Tanzania district including

Karagwe. Education level of participant is considered as an important factor in adoption of different agricultural innovations, including appropriate technology to off-setting impacts of climate change such as adaptation, mitigation strategies as well as coping strategies towards impacts of climate change. Education gives a person ability to analyze, synthesize and make useful judgment about a certain issue

(Overholt et al., 1991).

4.2.1.4 Marital statuses of respondents

The observed majority of respondents being married could be associated to the nature of coffee farming as labour intensive enterprise in two dimensions. Firstly, coffee production demands labour in the different farm operations ranging from field establishment, planting, pulping, weeding, tending, harvesting and other associated operations that need a settled family. Secondly, marriage is also seen as a way of uniting together human force (labour) to effecting a given economic production system such as coffee farming, tea as well as other subsistence crops and even livestock keeping. In rural settings family labour is the most predominate labour.

4.2.1.5 Occupation of respondents

The revealed majority of respondents being farmers could be associated to the fact that agriculture and in particular cash crop production such as coffee represents one of a viable economic activity in Karagwe district as well as other districts of Kagera 62

region and other areas of Tanzania belonging to the coffee- banana production system. The study concurs with Vanranst et al. (2002) who projected that, agriculture as the main occupation activities in different societies as it provides income, foreign currency, employment and food to people. Agricultural sector employs more than

90% of population in Tanzania and contributes to more than 90% to the national

GDP.

4.2.1.6 Crop production

The revealed mixed cropping in the current study depicts the fact that, the main subsistence crops (maize, banana, beans, cassava, millet and sorghum) provide food at household level while cash crop, mainly coffee, vanilla and sunflowers are potential sources of income. These results are in line with findings reported by

Wringley et al. (1988) projecting that cash crops such as coffee and tea provide income to millions of people in most producing countries, where as food crops such as cereal crops provide food to most communities in the world. However, coffee production is declining due to an increasing trend among farmers to switch to other crops. For instance, farmers in Karagwe district are continuously replacing this high income- earning crop with annual crops such as sunflower, banana, beans and vegetables because these are short term crops that mature within a short period of time and give good return to farmers.

4.2.1.7 Coffee cropping systems

In Karagwe the common coffee cropping system is intercropping banana with coffee and other annual and perennial crops such as beans, horticultural crops and tubers.

The study revealed that, intercropping coffee with other crops such as banana in the same farm could protect coffee from strong wind, also banana could provides shade 63

to coffee plant. As reported by most household banana is also intercropped with coffee bearing in mind that, banana provides food within families, where as coffee provides income and other financial obligations at house hold level.

4.2.2 Coffee production trend

The noted variability in coffee production between years as well wards in Karagwe could mostly be explained by rainfall extent in the district, extent of drought as well as soil agronomic characteristics. Other factors that could be associated to variability in coffee production in the district include insect pests infestation, disease incidences and the general crop husbandry and agronomic factors such as soil fertility. The noted relative high coffee production potential for Nyaishozi, Nyakakika, Nyakabanga and

Nyakasimbi wards could be associated to large farm sizes compared to other crops.

The noted high production in the latter wards could also be associated to differences in microclimate in relation to moisture retention. Coffee production in a given area is determined by factors such as climate of an area, soil type and technology employed in cropping practices such as mulching and fertilizer application (Anon, 1997).

The noted low coffee yields in some wards for instance Kayanga, Bugene and

Kihanga, could similarly be associated to poor agronomic practices such as improper weeding and fertilizer application among coffee growers. Variation in yields between sites could also be due to differences in tending practices (weeding, pruning, staking) noted by Semoka et al. (2005). The latter author pointed out salient factors that influence coffee production trend to include total coffee area under the crop and coffee density. Other factors that affect coffee production include prevalence and severity of insect pests and diseases. Land and its fertility and crop management levels play a pivotal role on crop productivity (Semoka et al., 2005).

Like in other coffee cropping communities in Tanzania, coffee production showed varying trends in Karagwe. For the past decade coffee production in Karagwe showed varied trend, through documentary review, it was noted that, coffee production increased in 2003/2004 to 18, 406 tones and there after it declined to 6,816 and 6,078 tones in 2004/2006. Coffee production gradually increased until 2006/2008 to 15,249 and 15, 704 tones, respectively. Then increased significantly during the 2008/2009 to

36,131 tones. There after it collapsed to 14, 713 tones in 2009/2010 and also increased to 34, 368 tones in 2010/2011 and from there it declined in 2011/ 2013 to

14,941 and 12, 951 tons, respectively.

The findings revealed that, the sequence of yield had declined as was mentioned by villagers for instance in 1980s from 1 acre a farmer could get 15 sacks of coffee, and now even making 2 sack of coffee from 1 acre is a challenge. There is variable trend in coffee production compared to at 10 and 15 years back coffee production is not the same in the study area. The current study is also reflected in the work of Tanzania

Coffee Board (TCB, 2012) that, coffee output declined from a nine-season pre-1994-

95 average of 50,918 tons of a five season post-1994/95 average of 45,065 tons, a

13% decline. Yields also declined over a long term from 377 in 1972-73 to 401 in

1991-92 to 234 in 1998-99. According to Tanzania coffee board (TCB, 2012) production of both Arabica and Robusta coffee was lowest in 1993/94. From 1993/94 production of Robusta picked up substantially and continued to date. Production trend for Arabica was not as steady as that of Robusta.

4.2.3 Impacts of climate change on coffee production

The impacts of climate change that seems to affect coffee production in Karagwe district is reflected through prolonged dry spell, drought, insect pests and diseases infestations, poor distribution of rainfall, strong winds, storms, and elevated temperatures.

4.2.3.1 Low rainfall and poor rainfall distribution

The finding revealed that, agriculture sector in Karagwe is reported to have been affected by rainfall variability. Small scale agriculture that is practiced by many farmers relies heavily on rainfall for the provision of water for crops and thus when no rainfall the farmers suffer the consequences. Most households are smallholder’s farmers farming 3 hectors or less of crop land, crops like maize, beans banana, and other crops are mostly affected by changed rainfall patterns, increased temperatures and decreased rains are also seen to have impacts on coffee production in most of sampled wards. Lack of rainfall is reported to cause drying of coffee flowers, shedding of flowers and young coffee berries. Some villagers reported that, rainfall accompanied with hail stone results in shedding of coffee berries and even flowers.

This could negatively affect coffee production in the area and hence the livelihood of most coffee producers is affected.

Observed changes in rainfall seasons and pattern, shows that in some areas there are no more vuli rains, and when the rains come it is not at the usual time. In most cases rains delay and this result in crops drying out. Also reported rainfall pattern indicated that, in some areas rain was about 3 times a year but now only once or rarely twice a year and it is so unpredictable. It starts late and ends before end of rainy season, in the

1950 and 1970s farmers could cultivate and harvest twice but now they only harvest 66

once. The study by Descroix, (2004) concurs with the current study with the view that. A soil water deficit decreases the biological and economic productivity of coffee, by lowering the quantity and quality of the yield and quality of coffee.

4.2.3.2 Effect of prolonged dry spell on coffee production

Prolonged dry spell affects negatively coffee production through plant during impaired flowering by causing shedding of flowers and young coffee berries; yellowing of leaves and total fall of leaves. Camargo et al. (2009) found that, continuous exposure of coffee plant to daily dry spell could result in reduced growth or even leaf necrosis characterized by yellowing and loss of leaves and hence affect coffee production possibly as a result of reduced net photosynthetic rate.

4.2.3.3 Effects of drought on coffee production

As reported by most households frequent drought has caused yellowing of leaves, drying of coffee flowers and hence coffee production is affected. Some household reported that, frequent occurrence of drought as for example those of 2004/2005 has led into poor flowering and sometimes drying of the whole coffee plant, drought also seems to cause premature ripening of the beans which have a direct negative impact on the quality of the coffee and yield qualities in the study area. The study concurs with Wrigley, (1988) and Kimemia, (2007) that, general impacts of climate change particularly drought is considered to be important factor in defining potential coffee yield. The factor interfere in the crop phenology, and consequently in productivity and quality.

4.2.3.4 Effects of elevated temperatures on coffee production

In the current study high temperature reported to affect coffee production by directly affecting physiology of coffee plants such as flowering and photosynthesis. In

Karagwe, elevated temperatures is reported to have grater impacts on coffee production, in most cases it accelerates scorching of the young berries and sometimes drying of the whole plant. An elevated temperature is reported to cause immature pollination of some crops and coffee in particular which in turn affects the livelihood of most households.

The study conducted by Wrigley, (1988) and Kimemia, (2007) also concurs with the study projecting that, coffee plant responds sensitively to increasing temperatures, specifically during blossoming and fructification, temperatures above 23°C hinder the development and ripening of cherries, besides the direct impacts of high temperatures on the coffee crop the increase of insect pests and diseases is the consequence of increasing temperatures. Similarly, Easter et al. (2007) concurs with the study with the view that, high temperatures can result in abnormalities within the leaves, stems, flowers and reducing coffee yields, which cause further stress to the coffee plant.

4.2.3.5 Effects of strong wind on coffee production

The interviewed households reported that, weather events that are accompanied with strong wind such as coffee branches break and banana fall on coffee plant have effect on coffee production in the study area.

As for example it was reported that, currently, winds have increased leading into coffee branches break and bananas fall on to the coffee plants, the coffee plant is loosened in the soil and sometimes wind cause shedding of flowers and berries.

Planting of trees around farms is a mitigation measures against strong wind in most coffee cropping communities in the study area.

4.2.3.6 Effects of storms on coffee production

Frequent extreme events such as hail stone reduce yields by directly damaging crops at specific developmental stages, such as exceeding rainfall during flowering, or by making the timing of field applications more difficult, thus reducing the efficiency of farm inputs (Aggarwal, 2008). Findings from the current study revealed that, Storms such as hail stone spoil coffee berries and sometimes cause shedding of the flowers and hence affect coffee production in the area. Also, heavy rainfall accompanied with hail stone affect coffee productivity in the area as it accelerates shedding of flowers and sometimes young coffee berries. The study concurs with (Carmago et al., 2009) who stressed that, occurrence of storms such as hail stone and frosts, strongly limit the economic success of the coffee plant.

4.2.3.7 Effects of insect pests on coffee production

Coffee Berry Borer; (Hypothenemus hampei) locally known as “Ruhuka”, seems to have effect on coffee production in Karagwe as it perforates young berries and let them fall. Damage is caused by the female, which bores into green coffee berries to lay her eggs, producing legless white larvae that feed on the beans for 3 or more weeks. Economic damage caused is premature fall of berries and hence total loss of these to production, damaged berries are retained on the tree until harvest, making them of lower commercial value by reducing weight of the bean and downgrading the quality and affecting the flavor of the coffee. The study concurs with the Ministry of

Agriculture and Food and Cooperative (MAFC, 2008) projecting that, coffee berry borer excavate eggs laying holes inside the berries and feeds within the dead seed 69

which eventually fell to the ground. Coffee Stem Borer; (Anthores leuconotus), bore into the bark and the wood itself and causes extensive damage to the lower part of the trunk and the root system. Coffee stem borer affect coffee plant by boring a hole in the trunk and lead into total death of coffee plant.

Similarly, Antestia bugs; (Antestiopsis spp.) locally known as “Kidomozi”, feed mostly on immature, green berries, from which they suck the sap, causing the fruits to shrink. The bug also transmit a fungal disease, which infects developing beans and turns them into a white powdery mass and cause rotting of the coffee bean. The current study is also reflected in the study done by Chen et al. (2006), projecting that,

Antestia bugs is mainly a pest of Arabica, it results into multiple branching and shortening of internodes of terminal growth, it also results into blackening of flowers buds, fall of immature berries and total rotting of beans. On the other hand, Termites;

(Ancisttrotermes spp) locally known as “Omuswa”, termites attack the root of coffee trees and in particular the young coffee plants. Some villagers interviewed reported that Termites increase with incidence of drought and this implies that termites are normally active in summer when there is no rain. Coffee Berry Moth; (Prophantis smaragdina), is reported to be disastrous in perforating young coffee berries and hence reduces production in the area.

Most of the young coffee berries in Karagwe are perforated by Coffee berry moth and thus affect the expected yield in most of seasons. The study is further supported by the study done by Luiz et al. (2005) commenting that coffee berry moth enhances large perforation in the cherries which turn yellow and shrivel, flowers buds hatching into reddish and berry cluster webbed together, with one berry, brown, dry and hollow. Coffee thrips; (Diarthrothrips coffee) locally known as “vindugamba”. has 70

been reported by farmers in Karagwe being a threat on coffee leaves as it exacerbates falling of leaves and hence poor flowering. Coffee thrips has been also reported to cause irregular grey silvery patches with minute black spots, discolouring of leaves and total death of leaves and hence coffee flowering is affected. Apart from numerous insect pests that were reported by farmers, diseases were also reported to be a problem on coffee production in the area.

4.2.3.8 Effects of diseases on coffee production

The frequently reported diseases that affect coffee production in Karagwe include

Coffee Wilt Diseases (CWD); (Gibeberella stilboides) locally known as “Mnyauko”

Some respondents interviewed reported that Coffee Wilt Disease attack almost all above ground parts of the plant, and is most common in young Plants. Die back begins with the lower branches but may spread to the whole plant as the disease develops. Stem tissues around the collar the plant are killed and blue black streaks appear in the wood, under the bark. In severe attacks, coffee trees wilt and collapse.

On berries, sunken brown lesions appear at the stalk end of the berry, which can cut off the flow of nutrients to the berries, causing them to die prematurely.

Dark brown lesions may also appear elsewhere on the berries, especially where the flower was attached, which turn the infected berries red, so that they appear to ripen early. Similarly, wringley, (1988) concurs with the study with view that, Coffee Wilt disease is characterized by a number of symptoms mainly rapid withering of coffee plant, cankers development on the collar resulting killing of the entire plant.

Furthermore, Coffee Berry Disease (CBD); (Colletotrichum kahawae) is reported to attacks the berries at all stages of the crop from flower to ripe berry, although most damage is inflicted when young, expanding berries are infected, which are mostly 71

shed once they become diseased. If the infection reaches the beans, they become black and distorted. The study concurs with Waller et al. (1993) projecting that effect of Coffee Berry Disease on declined coffee yield is due to its effect on drying and falling of young coffee berries in most of coffee farms.

With the presence of CBD coffee production is reduced in terms of yield and quality and hence the livelihoods of most farmers are negatively impacted. Coffee berries infested with the CBD normally remain on tree as dead mummified in which the seed has been destroyed and black fruiting bodies. Coffee Leaf Rust Disease (CLR)

(Hemileia vastatrix) locally known as “Kutu wa jani” have effects on coffee production mainly through infected leaves that reduce net photosynthetic rate of coffee plant. Interviewed farmers reported that Coffee leaf rust (CLR) is a fungal disease attacks only the leaves and the first signs of the disease are orange/yellow circular spots mostly on the lower surface of the leaves. The spores of the fungus are dispersed mainly by wind and infection can progress down a tree via raindrops. In severe cases, coffee trees may suffer premature or complete leaf drop.

Coffee Rust Disease affects the leaf of the coffee plant and therefore led into poor flowering of plant hence yields becomes low and thus the livelihood of most coffee producers in Karagwe district is affected. Some villagers acknowledged that Arabica coffee seems to be mostly susceptible, while Robusta is resistant. The study is supported by Tapley (1965) projecting that, Coffee Leaf Rust disease is associated with the following symptoms, the development of round, yellow, green patches, oil appearing on the upper side of leaves, powdery orange patches on the underside of the leaf, pale chlorotic spots on the leaves which may eventually die and extensive defoliation. 72

4.2.4 Adaptation strategies towards impacts of climate change on coffee

production

According to Carmago et al. (2009), there are a number of initiatives to promote adaptation in coffee production, although initiatives to promote the principles of sustainable production are not sufficient response to buffer the magnitude of impacts that are expected. Community based analysis of climate risks and opportunities, sustainable production techniques, such as mixed cropping management, new varieties better adapted to future climate conditions, conservation of soil and water sources, improved access to climate information for coffee Producers are necessary strategies to complement climate change (IPCC, 2001). In the current study the reported adaptation strategies toward impacts of climate change on coffee production includes.

4.2.4.1 Adoption of new varieties better adapted to climatic condition

One of the major constraints to productivity and the development and growth of

(TaCRI, 2008).

One of Tanzania Coffee Research Institute (TaCRI) major objective is to identify high yielding varieties resistant to CBD and CLR for Arabica and CWD resistant

Robusta clones, both with large bean size and high cup quality that perform optimally within the diverse coffee production areas of Tanzania. For the past 10 years, coffee improvement programme has made notable achievements in attaining this objective.

A total of 15 improved Arabica hybrids and four (4) Robusta varieties which combines disease resistance, high productivity73 and excellent cup taste have been

developed and approved for commercial use in Tanzania by the National Variety

Release Committee.

These new varieties are currently under accelerated multiplication and are used in a massive national replanting programme (TaCRI, 2008). In addition, Kilambo et al.

(1999) it is better to have a variety with genetic potential of producing 50 to 75% but not succumbed to CWD, than to have a variety with a potential to produce 100% but succumbs to CWD. The salient features of the 15 new Arabica hybrids and four (4)

CWD resistant Robusta varieties contribute to green revolution of the coffee industry in Tanzania. This is because, Production is 2 to 3 times than that of traditional commercial varieties, start bearing much earlier than traditional varieties, possess vegetative vigour leading to greater production stability, offer a cup quality to or better than that of traditional varieties, reduces cost of production because of resistance to CBD or CLR or CWD (TCB, 2012).

The commercial coffee varieties in Tanzania include N 39, KP 423, KP 162 and H 66.

These varieties have exceptionally good beverage quality appreciated throughout the world, but come from a narrow genetic base and are highly susceptible to coffee berry disease (CBD) incited by Colletotricum kahawae and coffee leaf rust (CLR) (TaCRI,

2008). In the current study, it seems that, improved coffee varieties from TaCRI which are resistant to disease are planted by few households. The study found that most farmers are aware of improved coffee varieties but very few of the interviewed farmers plant improved coffee varieties. Since new varieties are hybrids and are costful in propagation the speed of multiplication has been a major drawback to distribution to most of farmers in the study area.

The major sources of new varieties for majority of the farmers are TaCRI, farmers groups and district nurseries. Farmers groups and district nurseries have been an important partner in the production of improved new varieties because productions of these new varieties require some investments in the materials and management and therefore few farmers afford to produce individually. These groups receive training from extension services on vegetative production of coffee through TaCRI and sometimes facilitated on basic requirements.

In Karagwe, TaCRI has supported the establishment of improved coffee nurseries in three village of Katwe, Ihembe and Kandegesho. The seedlings produced from these nurseries are sold to farmers at a subsidized price. TaCRI in collaboration with district extensional officers provide free inputs for use in the clonal nurseries, inputs such as fertilizer is provided to the nursery also regular training to farmers is done to ensure coffee production in the area. Planting of clonal coffee is adapted by most farmers bearing in mind that, clonal coffee is adapted to insect pests and disease infestations compared to common Robusta. Similarly, clonal coffee encompasses large bean size and it is believed to have good cup taste to the consumer and thus it is marketable compared to the old variety. The study is reflected in the work done by

Tanzania Coffee Research Institute (TaCRI, 2008), projecting that, there is a need of substantial research capacity especially in coffee breeding and the propagation and distribution of improved varieties and clones to improve productivity. Clones such as

N39, KP 423, KP162, and H66 are best commercial varieties of good beverage quality in Tanzania (Nyange et al., 1999).

4.2.4.2 Diversification and intensification of production systems

Diversification is the mixed activities whereby crop farmers can mix two to three activities to enhance productivity (NAPA, 2007). As an adaptation strategy to climate change most people in Karagwe have diversified their economic activities, for instance most people have altered their farming system by switching to other crops and mixed cropping systems examples livestock keeping and petty trade business as a new income generating activities.

Due to changing climate coffee production is no longer income oriented crop, most of farmers are domesticating animals and growing of other crops such as sunflower and vannila as an alternative on the changing climate. Other activities adapted includes, charcoal making and break making. The study concurs with (Carmago et al., 2009) who said that, given the high dependence on coffee as a monoculture, farmers are very vulnerable to climate risks like prolonged drought periods or devastating rainfalls and storms. To reduce this risk and to enhance the resilience of the agriculture production system, options to diversify production and farmers’ income should be identified. Diversification is the main tool that farmers have to reduce their individual farm risk.

4.2.4.3 Adoption of sustainable production techniques

These include micro- use of fertilizer, using rather than burning crop residues and other organic matter, planting nitrogen-fixing crops and trees, making good use of compost and manure, and taking steps to prevent wind and water erosion (Hope,

2009). Sustainable production technique such as agroforest and crop rotation is reported to be adapted against climate change in Karagwe district. Most of interviewed farmers in Karagwe district adapted sustainable production techniques 76

such as afforesting land, crop rotation, shifting cultivation, agroforest and mulching which are helpful to improve soil fertility, improves production, but also ameliorating impacts of climate change in the area. The major reason for shifting cultivation and crop rotation as revealed by these farmers is to restore soil fertility that is normally lost from excessive farming and soil erosion. In almost all sampled wards mulching is highly adapted as it helps to retain soil moisture and keep soil temperature. Crop rotation is also adapted as it helps to improve soil fertility and thus crops and coffee production in particular is enhanced. Also, agroforest practices such as intercropping vanilla, banana, trees and fruits with coffee seem to have been adapted by most of interviewed households in Karagwe.

The study is highly supported by the arguments from Suswatch, (2009) projecting that, sustainable production such as intercropping has multiple advantages to communities as it Minimizes the uses of scarce land resources which may be the problems for an individual to secure and control. Land fragmentation is minimized and costs of farm supervision are reduced. Intercropping crops in farms helps taller crops like trees to provide shelter to keep soil moisture for other shorter crops.

Similarly, the Ministry of Agriculture and Food and Cooperative (MAFC, 2008) concluded that, sustainable production such as shade trees and other plants like banana protect coffee trees from strong winds, strong rains and excessive fluctuations of air temperature. Their leaf litter enhances soil fertility when they decompose to humus.

4.2.4.4 Application of Mulching

Mulching is the action of covering farms with special grasses during drought or dry seasons by crop farmers to avoid drying of the crops (RESSAP, 2007/2008). In the 77

current study, mulching is mainly done in farms of coffee, banana, trees, beans and maize and among others tomatoes. This action is highly encouraged by agricultural experts in the study area and is done by more than 19% of the total respondents in the study area as per table 18 above presents. According to TaCRI, (2008) there is positive response on the newly introduced farming technologies on mulching, where by most farmers conduct mulching to avoid insect pests and diseases infestations, drought and to maintain temperature and moisture content. Most of interviewed farmers in Karagwe believe that, Mulching is helpful in retaining soil moisture especially during drought and it influence humus formation but it also keeps soil moisture thus it is highly adapted by almost all coffee growing communities in the area.

4.2.5 Coping strategies towards impacts of climate change on coffee production

Coping to climate change refer to responses of actual or expected climate changes or their effects. Such responses may include change in process practices or structure either voluntary or planned to minimize potential damages or take advantages of the opportunities associated with changes in climate. Coping strategies may include policy measures which reduce vulnerability and enhance adaptive capacity or the ability of the people and systems to adjust to climate change (IPCC, 2001). In the current study, the reported coping strategy towards impacts of climate change on coffee production included.

4.2.5.1 Proper farm management techniques

It is reported that, proper farm management such as mulching and application of manure are adapted as coping strategies towards the impacts of climate change on coffee production in the study area. Farmers use different ways to manage their farms. 78

All farmers interviewed use local manure from livestock which are locally known as

“amase”. Apart from this, others use industrial fertilizer in their farms. Mulching is common and application of farm yard manure is also common. Effective insect pests and diseases control are practiced by most households as for example in controlling

Coffee Wilt Disease (CWD) most farmers do burn and uproot the diseased plant. In similar ways in controlling insect pests some farmers do use local ways such as the use of local brew known as “lubisi” to control Coffee Berry Borer (CBB), some of them do use kerosene to control insect pest like Coffee stem borer. Weeds like star grass locally known as “orukeke” and couch grass locally known as “Nyamurasa” are controlled through hoeing and the use of industrial spray such as herbicides and insecticides.

Pruning and proper planting of coffee seedling is also practiced in Karagwe.

Household labour is the main type of labour used to perform farm activities including different coffee production activities. Some households used hired labour to supplement household labour during peak periods. For coffee production, hired labours are used in weeding, pruning, mulching, and fertilizer/manure application, pesticide application, picking coffee berries and pulping. Labour is required in almost all farm operations however requirements are high during coffee picking. Labour requirements in coffee farming are high due to its perennial nature that requires labour throughout the year. Though labour requirement in coffee production is very high returns to labour has been very low due to low labour productivity associated with old age of the farmers and low use of implements that would boost labour efficiency. Most smallholder farm families are so poor that, they cannot afford hired labour, so they depend much on their own strength on many of the farm operations.

Such operations include weeding, mulching, pruning, harvesting and manure application.

The findings concurs with Porter and Semenov, (2005) who added that, Proper farm managements such as pruning is an essential part of coffee production, and basically it involves removal of old or dead stems. Pruning serves many purposes such as, determining the shape of the tree, to prevent the tree from growing too tall to make tasks such as harvesting and spraying easier. To maximizes the amount of new wood for the next season's crop. By cutting away less productive wood, you encourage the growth of new, vigorous stems and branches. It prevents over-bearing and thus reduces biennial production. Pruning results in bigger berries of higher quality than small berries that would result from overbearing. Pruning also helps prevent some insect pest and disease problems. By opening up the canopy so that light can penetrate to the centre of the tree, and air circulates more freely, certain pests and disease problems are reduced or prevented (Fraser et al., 2006).

The study concurs with The Ministry of Agriculture and Food and Cooperative

(MAFC, 2008) who projected that, proper farm management needs regular pruning so as to regulate the height of the plant for management, pruning also provides the tree with a robust and well balanced frame work to support the fruit bearing branches and make it for convenient berry harvesting and other management practices.

4.2.5.2 Adoption of sustainable production techniques

The other reported coping strategy is sustainable production technique such as agroforest technique, crop rotation and shifting cultivation. Farmers in the area intercrop banana and trees with coffee in the same farm, farmers believe that, 80

intercropping trees with coffee protects coffee from strong wind, also trees add humus in the soil which in turn improve coffee productivity in the study area. Nutrient management was also reported to be implemented by farmers in Karagwe. The use of organic sources such as manure is high compared to the use of inorganic fertilizers.

Farmers indicate that, they normally leave some farms empty for sometime before using them again, so that the land can recover its fertility. Crop rotation is another method they use to preserve soil fertility and ensure soil conservation. Farmers indicated that, they use crop mixing as a method to ensure soil fertility.

They mostly mix coffee, banana, beans and vanilla. Shifting cultivation, crop rotation, crop mixing are some of the traditional methods that are used for years to preserve soil fertility and are still being used during these times of high climate variations as some of the coping strategies. The study is supported by the comments from The

Ministry of Agriculture and Food and Cooperative (MAFC, 2008) commenting that, sustainable production such as application of manure enhances the effectiveness of the mineral fertilizer by improving the clay-humus complex of the soil.

4.2.5.3 Application of mulching

Application of mulching toward coping with climate change circumstances is reported to be practiced in Karagwe district. Mulching involves covering the soil with a layer of dry vegetation (Porter and Semenov, 2005). In the study area, common materials that are used for mulching includes dry grass, maize, banana leaves locally known as “ebishankara” and coffee pruning’s. Mulching have many benefits to farmers, including, reducing the loss of soil moisture, prevention of soil erosion, which is particularly important on coffee grown on steep slopes, increasing soil nutrient levels, improving the structure81 of the soil and suppression of weeds.

Alternatively, growing a cover crop is also done under the coffee trees which give many of these benefits. Cover crops often legumes are planted by farmers, which have a special ability to fix nitrogen from the air in the soil though specialized bacteria that live on their roots, thus indirectly increasing the nitrogen content of the soil. Most farmers practice mulching bearing in mind that, mulching helps in retaining soil moisture, also mulching enhances the formation of humus of which in turn add soil fertility and hence improve coffee production in the area. It is observed that, mulching is highly practiced in Nyaishozi village and this denotes why Nyaishozi village have high coffee production trend compared with other sampled wards.

4.2.5.4 Enhanced rain water harvesting and application of traditional irrigation

schemes

It is also reported that, application of traditional irrigation schemes is also practiced as a coping strategy against climate change on coffee production in the study area.

Irrigation is practiced by very few farmers who are located near streams and other water sources. The common irrigation method used is furrow irrigation. This method is not economic in the use of water and is commonly practiced due to low investment costs required, only labour is needed for operations. Traditional irrigation schemes such as digging of channels locally known as “emifereji” is also common especially to community around water sources, only community around water sources practice traditional irrigation schemes. Traditional irrigation schemes are only done during summer when coffee flowering stages approaches. The study is reflected in the work of Carmago et al. (2009) maintaining that, since climate is becoming unpredictable, traditional irrigation schemes is very essential towards improving coffee productivity to most of coffee cropping communities.

CHAPTER FIVE

SUMMARY, CONCLUSION, RECOMMENDATIONS AND AREAS FOR

FURTHER STUDIES

5.1 Introduction

This chapter presents summary of findings, conclusion, recommendations and areas for further research.

5.2 Summary of the findings

Findings show that, coffee production in Karagwe district depicts a variable trend across years and wards. Coffee production trend from 2003 to 2012 in Karagwe could be grouped in three production potentials areas with Nyakasimbi, Nyakakika,

Nyaishozi and Nyakabanga wards demostrating high production potential averaging

2,218, 3,341, 2,245 and 3,410 (t) per decade. Ndama, Rugu and Ihembe wards demostrated medium production potential of 922, 1,957 and 1,623 (t) per decade. On the other hand, Kayanga, Kihanga and Bugene recorded low production potentials ranging from 703, 751 and 832 (t) per decade. Identified impacts of climate change on coffee production included drought, elevated temperatures, prolonged dry spell, strong winds, insect pests and diseases infestation, poor distribution of rainfall and storms such as hail stone. Drought was reported to cause yellowing of coffee plant leaves, drying of coffee flowers, pre mature growth of coffee bean and hence affect coffee production in Karagwe district. Elevated temperatures were reported to affect coffee production by directly affecting physiology of coffee plants such as flowering and photosynthesis.

In similar manner, prolonged dry spell and storms like hail stone was noted to cause shedding of flowers and young coffee berries. Insect pests such as coffee berry borer, coffee stem borer, coffee berry moth and termites were reported to have effects on coffee production. The reported diseases that were seen to have effects on coffee production included coffee wilt disease, coffee berry disease and coffee leaf rust disease. The common adaptation strategies towards impacts of climate change on coffee production includes diversification and intensification of production systems like mixed cropping, adoption of sustainable production techniques such as crop rotation and agroforest, proper farm management such as pruning and weeding including adoption of new varieties better adapted to climate change such clonal coffee.

The reported coping strategies towards impacts of climate change on coffee production included Proper farm management techniques, adoption of sustainable production techniques, application of mulching, opting for off-farm activities, enhanced rain water harvesting and application of traditional irrigation schemes and the substitution of coffee with other agricultural crops.

5.3 Conclusion

From the current study it can be concluded that,

1. Coffee production trend is not only affected by weather related events such as

drought and elevated temperatures, but also other factors such as price slump,

farm managements and soil fertility determine coffee production trend in

Karagwe.

2. The adaptation and coping, strategies to impacts of climate change among coffee

cropping communities in Karagwe are fundamental to achieving sustainable

livelihood.

3. The impacts of climate change as for example drought does not only affect coffee

production in the area but also hinders the development of other agricultural

activities such as fishing and cattle keeping in the area.

5.4 Recommendations

The current study lastly recommends that,

1. Although it is clear that the general effects of climate change affect both Robusta

and Arabica coffee production, specific studies are required to determine the

impact of climate change on Robusta and Arabica so as to determine where

climate change may have most impact.

2. There is a need to define climate variables for monitoring coffee production in

producer areas to determine the actual nature of climate variability and its impact

on coffee productivity and quality.

3. Improving coffee quality through producer education, improved infrastructure,

investment in washing stations, and strengthened cooperative and association

management and promoting greater equity in value distribution through producer

participation in coffee marketing is crucial in enhancing coffee production

4. Training, facilitation and financing are required to scale up the adaptation,

mitigation and coping strategies against climate change and to increase the

resilience of coffee producers to climate change.

5. Capacity building and mobilization by the government should be done so as

coffee cropping communities become aware on impacts of climate change caused

by anthropogenic activities like bush burning and slashing.

5.5 Areas for further study

1. There is a need to assess how climate change favours the severity of insect pests

and disease infestation on coffee production in the area.

2. Further studies are required to be done to identify the impacts of climate change

on the specific groups of farmers such as cattle keepers and fishers.

3. The strategies used by local coffee farming communities against the impacts of

climate change need further researches and investigation specifically on how

people adapt, mitigate and cope to these impacts.

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APPENDICES

APPENDIX 1

Questionnaires for data collection

Introduction My name is Jetson Kubabigamba, I am a student of Dodoma University pursuing master of science in natural resource management. I am researching on the impacts of climate change on coffee production in Karagwe district. My study covers ten wards of Karagwe district namely Ihembe, rugu, Nyaishozi, Bugene, Kayanga, Ndama, Nyakabanga, Kihanga, Nyakasimbi and Nyakakika. To make this work successful I am kindly asking for your cooperation and voluntary participation. Again I humbly request you to provide information as much as possible. The information from this study will strictly be treated confidential and for academic purposes only.

Ward……………………………Questionnaire No …………………. Respondent name……………………………………………………. Date……………………………………………………….…………. Phone No…………………………………………………….……… Location: GPS, Latitude…………………Longitude…………………..Elevation……………

A: Identification of the respondent/general information 1. Age of Respondent (a) 18 -27 years ( ) (b) 28 -37 years ( ) (c) 38-47 years ( ) (d) 48 -57 years ( ) (e) 57 and above ( )

2. Sex (a) Male ( ) (b) female ( )

3. Marital status (a) Married ( ) (b) Single ( ) (c) widower ( ) (d) Divorced ( )

4. Level of education (a) Informal education ( ) (b) Primary education ( ) (c) Secondary education ( ) (d) tertiary education ( )

5. Occupation (a) Farming ( ) (b) Government employee ( ) (c) Petty trade business ( )

6 .Type of crops grown (a) Subsistence crops ( ) (b) Cash crop ( ) (c) Both subsistence crops and cash crops ( ) 7. The size of the farm under coffee production (a) A half hectors ( ) (b) One hector ( ) (c) One hector and half ( ) (d) Two hectors ( ) (e) Two and a half hectors ( ) (f) Three hectors ( ) (g) Three hectors and above ( ) 97

8. Type of coffee grown by the farmer (a) Robusta ( ) (b) Arabica ( ) (c) Both Robusta and Arabica ( )

9. Coffee farming systems (a) Banana intercropped with coffee ( ) (b) Tree intercropped with coffee ( ) (c) Coffee, trees, and banana intercropped together ( ) (d) Pure stand coffee ()

Questionnaire guide to house hold of coffee farming communities B: Specific objective questions

10. Do you agree with the fact that climate change affects coffee production? (a) Yes ( ) (b) No ( )

11. What is the extent of coffee yield and productivity did you produce for the past 10 years?

12. Do the impacts of climate change affect the extent of yield and bean quality? (a) Yes ( ) (b)

13. What are the impact of climate change do you face on coffee production in your area?

14. What are the effects of climate change on coffee production do you face?

15. Is diseases infestation a problem on coffee production in your area? (a) Yes ( ) (b) No ( )

16. What type of disease do you face on coffee production?

17. Is insect pest infestation a problem on coffee production in your area? (a) Yes (b) No ( )

18. What type of insect pests do you face on coffee production?

19. What are the effects of insect pest infestation on coffee production in your farm?

20. What are the adaptation strategies do you employ against climate change on coffee production?

21. Is there any mitigation strategies against climate change on coffee production in your area?

(22) What are the coping strategies towards climate change on coffee production in your area?

(23) What are the challenges do you face on coffee production in your area?

APPENDIX. 2

Questionnaire Guide for WEO and VEO

Research study on impacts of climate change on coffee production a case of Karagwe District. Name of village………………….Division…………………Ward…………………..

Section. A 1 Name of the officers……………………….. 2. Occupation of the officer…………………….. 3. Phone No……………………………………………………………..

Section B 1. What are the effects of climate change on coffee production in this area?

2. How farmers adapt to climate change in this area?

3. What are the impacts of climate change facing coffee producers in your area?

4. How do they manage to cope with the changes?

5. What is the rainfall trend for the past ten years?

6. What are the major land uses in the area?

7. What do you think can be done to help the community to cope with the impacts of climate change? 8. Does the impacts of climate change affects coffee bean quality? If yes how?

9. Do farmers have any mitigation mechanism against climate change?

10. What type of coffee is grown by the farmers in your area?

11. Do farmers have any adaptation strategies against climate change? If Yes how?

12. What are your suggestions to make these coffee famers to be comfortable with their activity……….?

13. Is there any disease infestation that face coffee growers in your area ………………….? If yes, mention examples of disease that affect production …………………………………

14 .Is insect pests infestation a problem to coffee growers in your area……………………….? If yes, mention examples of insect pests infestation that impact coffee production …………………..?

15. Does climate change variability affect the extent of yield and bean quality? If yes, mention how…………………………………………………………………….

APPENDIX. 3

Questionnaire Guide for District Agriculture Office (DAICO)

Research study on impacts of climate change on coffee production a case of Karagwe District. Name of District………………….Division…………………Ward…………………..

Section B

1. What are effects of climate change on coffee production in this area?

2. How farmers adapt to climate change in this area?

3. What are the impacts of climate change facing coffee producers in your area?

4. How do they manage to cope with the changes?

5. What is the rainfall trend for the past ten years?

6. What are the major land uses in the area?

7. What do you think can be done to help the community to cope with the impacts of climate change?

8. Does the impacts of climate change affects coffee bean quality? If yes how?

9. Are you aware of coffee production trend for the past ten years in your area?

10. Do farmers have any mitigation mechanism against climate change?

11. What type of coffee is grown by the farmers in your area?

12. Do farmers have any adaptation strategies against climate change? If Yes how?

13. What are your suggestions to make these coffee famers to be comfortable with their activity……….?

14. Is there any disease infestation that face coffee growers in your area ………………….? If yes, mention examples of disease that affect production …………………………………

100

15. .Is insect pests infestation a problem to coffee growers in your area……………………….? If yes, mention examples of insect pests infestation that impact coffee production …………………..? 16. Does climate change variability affect the extent of yield and bean quality? If yes, mention how………………………………………………………….

101

APPENDIX 4

Interview guide to farming communities

(1) What is your main activity ………………………………………………..?

(2) What types of crops are you growing...... ?

(3) Is there any problem of climate change in this area………………………………?

(4) Is there any Incidences of insect pest infestation affecting coffee production in this area? If yes, mention them………………………………………………………

(5) Is there any Incidences of diseases infestation in your area that affect coffee production? If yes, mention examples of diseases infestation……………………?

(6) What are the visible climate change impacts do you face on coffee production………..?

(7) Does the impacts of climate change affect bean quality? If yes, how…………………..?

(8) Is it true that Incidences of diseases occurrence and severity infestation are the result of climate change impacts…………………………....?

(9) How much coffee yield did you produce per hectare/farm in the past ten years…………………………………………………………………………….?

(10)What is the size of the area under coffee production………………………?

(11) Apart from coffee production is there any other competition for land…………...?

(12)What are the type of coffee do you grow? Arabica or Robusta………………………...?

(13) What do you think to be the causes of climate change……………………………...... ?

(14) Are you aware of climate change problems taking place in your area?...... YES/NO?

(15) What are your agricultural activities you are engaged in? List them (a)...... b...... c...... d...... e...... f...... g………h………

(16) Do you face any climate change problems in your daily activities? ...... YES/NO.

(17) For how long has this problem existed...... Five years, /ten years/fifteen years/30 years or...... ?

102

(18) How do you cope with climate change circumstances………………………………….? (19)What are the adaptation strategies do you employ so as to cope with climate change circumstances...... ?

(20) What are the Mitigation strategies do you consider to be impactful in reducing the impact of climate change in your area……………………………………………………….?

(21) How do you cope with the impacts of climate change…………………………………?

(22) For how long have you been coping with these problems in your activities? ……………………...... ? (23) What type of weather changes do you face…………………………………………….?

(24) How does it affect coffee production in your area………………………………….....?

(25) How do you manage to get such knowledge of coping strategies...... ?

(26) What problems are you facing in coping to these problems...... ?

(27) How is it easy or difficult to cope with these problems...... ?

(28) Is there any organization or institutions that assist you in getting knowledge of adaptation...... ?

(29) For how long has this organization/institution helped you...... ?

(30) What strategies do they use to impart knowledge...... ?

(31)Why do you make diversification of activities ………………………………………….?

103

APPENDIX 5 Interview Guide to Organization A: Organization profile: Location/operating village/Areas…………………..Ward……………Division…………….. Phone No…………………………………………………….

B: interview Guide: 1a) Name of the organization/institution……………………………………………………. 1b) Title of the leader......

2 a) For how long have you been working at this area...... ?

2 b) How many experts of climate change are found in this organization...... ?

3. What type of farmers are you dealing with...... ?

4. Are there any problems of climate change facing coffee growers in your area...... ?

5. What type of climate change problems have been reported frequently...... ?

6 .How do you help these coffee farmers cope with such problems...... ?

7. What are the strengths of coffee famers on this land / area...... ?

8. How do you involve coffee famers to manage to cope with such problem………………?

9. What strategies do you use to help coffee farmers cope their problem………………..?

10. To what extent does weather vary in this area………………………………………….?

11 .What causes this weather variation……………………………………………………...?

12. What are your suggestions to make these coffee famers to be comfortable with their activity………………………………………………………………………………… ……… 104

13. Is there any disease infestation that face coffee growers in your area ………………….? If yes, mention examples of disease that affect production …………………………………

14.Is insect pests infestation a problem to coffee growers in your area…………………….? If yes, mention examples of insect pest infestation that impact coffee production ………..?

15. Does climate change variability affect the extent of yield and bean quality? If yes, mentionhow…………………………………………………………………………… …….?

16. What is the extent of coffee yield and productivity did farmer produce for the past ten years in your area? APPENDIX. 6

Checklist for the focused group discussion to village elders and key informants.

Research study on the impacts of climate change on coffee production a case of Karagwe district.

A. Name of the village……………………….Division………………….Ward…………… B. Focus group composition: Elderly people who have lived in the village for at least 10 years and key informants. 1 .What is the trend of rainfall during the 10, 15, and 20 years?

2 .When did you have unusual rainfall and or drought event that affected coffee production in your area?

3. How coffee farmers cope in place in case of excessive rainfall /drought that affect production?

4. How do you deal with inter seasonal dry spells especially during January to December?

5. How do you access information on weather that are likely to affect coffee production

6. Have you received any information on the impact of climate change on coffee production in your village/area?

7a. Have you received any information on drought/temperature before they occur? 7b. If yes who provided the information?

8. Is there any local/international or external support in your village that helps coffee farmers cope with climate change circumstances?

9. How important is such support to address issues of drought, disease and insect pest to coffee producers? 105

10. Is climate changing?

11. What makes you think that climate is changing?

12. What can be seen to prove the changes?

13. What are the impacts of climate change on coffee production in your area?

14. How are you managing to cope with the changes?

15. What is the rainfall trend for the past ten years?

16. What are the major land uses in the area? 17. What do you think can be done to help the community to cope with the impacts of climate change?

18. Does the impacts of climate change affects coffee bean quality? If yes how?

19. Are you aware of coffee production trend for the past ten years in your area?

20. Do farmers have any mitigation mechanism against climate change?

21. What type of coffee is grown by the farmers in your area?

22 Do farmers have any adaptation strategies against climate change? If Yes how?

106

APPENDIX: 7 Checklist for the Panel discussion

Research study on the impacts of climate change on coffee production a case of Karagwe district.

A. Name of the village……………………….Division………………….Ward…………… B. Panel composition: District Agriculture officers, Key informants, important farmers and Agriculture extension officers.

1 .What is the trend of rainfall during the 10, 15, and 20 years?

2 .When did you have unusual rainfall and or drought event that affected coffee production in your area?

3. How coffee farmers cope in place in case of excessive rainfall /drought that affect production?

4. How do you deal with inter seasonal dry spells especially during January to December?

5. How do you access information on weather that is likely to affect coffee production?

6. Have you received any information on the impact of climate change on coffee production in your village/area?

7a. Have you received any information on drought/flood before they occur?

7b If yes who provided the information?

8. Is there any local/international or external support in your village that helps coffee farmers cope with climate change circumstances?

9 How important is such support to address issues of drought, disease and insect pests to coffee producers? 107

10 How important is such support in solving the mention above problem?

11. Is climate changing?

12. What makes you think that climate is changing?

13. What can be seen to prove the changes?

14. What are the impacts of climate change on coffee production in your area?

15. How are you managing to cope with the changes?

16. What is the rainfall trend for the past ten years?

17. What are the major land uses in the area?

18. What do you think can be done to help the community to cope with the impacts of climate change?

19. Does the impacts of climate change affects coffee bean quality? If yes how?

20. Are you aware of coffee production trend for the past ten years in your area?

21. Do farmers have any mitigation mechanism against climate change?

22. What type of coffee is grown by the farmers in your area?

23. Do farmers have any adaptation strategies against climate change? If Yes how?

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