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JYP Entertainment (035900 KQ ) High Profitability Confirmed

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JYP Entertainment (035900 KQ ) High Profitability Confirmed JYP Entertainment (035900 KQ ) High profitability confirmed Entertainment 3Q19 review: Above-consensus OP of W14.8bn Results Comment For 3Q19, JYP Entertainment announced consolidated revenue of W45.6bn (+34.5% November 15, 2019 YoY) and operating profit of W14.8bn (+74.5% YoY). Operating profit hit a quarterly high, surpassing both the market consensus and our estimate (W12bn). Earnings were strong across the board, especially in the content (album/digital; +18% YoY) and concert (+150% YoY) segments. Gross margin and OP margin were 51% and 32% , respectively, boosted by operating leverage effects and the partial recognition of (Maintain) Buy TWICE's dome tour. Target Price (12M, W) ▲ 31,000 Album/digital music revenue was W16bn (+18% YoY). Album sales included 43 0,000 copies of TWICE’s new mini album and 120,000 copies of ITZY’s debut album. Global Share Price (11/14/19, W) 22,100 digital music revenue continued to expand to W2.3bn (+28% YoY), driven by growing demand from global platform operators. Meanwhile, other revenues grew to W12.3bn Expected Return 40% (+15% YoY), aided by robust merchandise sales, YouTube revenue (W1.3bn; +49% YoY), and fan club membership fees. Concert revenue surged to W10bn (+150% YoY), buoyed by TWICE's dome tour (partial recognition) and GOT7’s world tour. OP (19F, Wbn) 42 High profitability to raise expectations for 2020 earnings Consensus OP (19F, Wbn) 37 In 2Q19, increased management and content production costs caused gross margin to EPS Growth (19F, %) 37.4 contract 4.6%p QoQ to 43.7%, which had raised concerns over profitability in spite of Market EPS Growth (19F, %) -32.1 new artist debuts and overseas tours. We believe the biggest takeaway of the latest P/E (19F, x) 23.5 results is the removal of such profitability concerns. Market P/E (19F, x) 14.3 KOSDAQ 663.31 Expectations on 2020 earnings are likely to grow, as key artists should be fully active . TWICE’s scheduled activities in Japan have been increasing through the years, while Market Cap (Wbn) 784 DAY6 and GOT7 are scheduled for world tour s. We also expect to see new activities Shares Outstanding (mn) 35 from ITZY and Stray Kids. Any concerns over profitability should be limited through Free Float (%) 74.8 end-2021, given top-line growth potential and the absence of changes in artist Foreign Ownership (%) 9.2 contracts. Beta (12M) 0.79 52-Week Low 16,950 Maintain Buy and lift TP to W31,000; Earnings to be driven by global projects 52-Week High 34,450 We reiterate our Buy call on JYP Entertainment and lift our target price to W31,000 , as we changed our valuation base period to 2020 while maintaining our earnings (%) 1M 6M 12M estimates. Our target P/E remains unchanged at 27x. Despite uncertainties over the Absolute -2.0 -20.4 -32.2 Korea-Japan row, we remain positive, given TWICE ’s extended concert tour, progress in Relative -5.2 -14.7 -31.4 the Nizi project, and the absence of any worrying signs in the Oricon charts. 130 JYP Entertainment KOSDAQ Meanwhile, JYP Entertainment has several projects planned for 2020 that should help 110 transform the company into a global player. These include the aforementioned Nizi project in Japan (debut targeted for late 2020), Project C in China (debut targeted for 90 2H20), and a global idol project (likely in the US). We expect the removal of earnings- 70 related concerns to draw attention to the long-term growth potential provided by 50 these global projects. 11.18 3.19 7.19 11.19 Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. [ Media ] FY (Dec.) 12/16 12/17 12/18 12/19F 12/20F 12/21F Revenue (Wbn) 74 102 125 153 184 200 Jeong -yeob Park +822 -3774 -1652 OP (Wbn) 14 19 29 42 53 59 [email protected] OP margin (%) 18.9 18.6 23.2 27.5 28.8 29.5 NP (Wbn) 8 16 24 33 40 44 EPS (W) 246 471 685 941 1,127 1,243 ROE (%) 13.4 21.4 22.5 23.2 22.4 20.4 P/E (x) 20.0 29.2 44.2 23.5 19.6 17.8 P/B (x) 2.1 4.8 7.7 4.5 3.8 3.2 Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates November 15, 2019 JYP Entertainment Table 1. Valuation overview (Wbn, x, %) P/E 18 19F 20F 19-20F avg. Current P/E 32.2 23.0 19.2 20.0 Fair market cap 1,080 1,080 1,080 1,080 Net profit 24 33 40 38 Target P/E 45.3 32.3 27.0 28.2 Fair price (W) 31,059 31,059 31,059 31,059 Expected return (%) 40.5 40.5 40.5 40.5 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Table 2. Quarterly and annual earnings (Wbn, %, %p) 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19P 4Q19F 2018 2019F 2020F Revenue 23 32 34 36 26 39 46 42 125 153 184 Album/digital content 9 11 14 16 10 15 16 12 49 52 53 Management 9 14 10 13 9 14 17 15 46 55 74 Concerts 1 7 4 4 2 5 10 8 16 24 41 Advertising 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 17 18 21 Appearance fees 3 3 2 5 3 4 3 3 13 13 12 Other 4 7 11 8 8 11 12 14 30 45 57 Operating profit 1.4 9.1 8.5 9.9 5.8 9.4 14.8 11.7 29 42 53 OP margin (%) 5.9 28.7 25.0 27.1 22.0 24.1 32.4 28.1 23.0 27.3 29.0 Pretax profit 2.4 9.7 8.5 9.6 7.2 8.7 14.3 11.1 30 41 53 Net profit 1.9 7.3 6.7 8.4 6.3 6.9 11.7 8.4 24 33 40 Net margin (%) 8.1 23.2 19.9 23.0 24.0 17.7 25.7 20.3 19.4 21.9 21.8 Net profit attributable to 1.8 7.3 6.5 8.2 6.4 6.8 11.7 8.4 23.8 33.4 40.0 controlling interests YoY Revenue 5.0 10.6 93.9 5.9 14.5 24.1 34.5 14.3 22.1 22.3 20.5 Album/digital content 9.5 41.2 163.5 21.4 1.3 39.6 18.3 -23.0 44.2 6.6 0.6 Management -9.6 6.4 13.3 31.8 0.8 -5.2 79.1 19.0 9.9 20.4 34.9 Concerts -48.8 52.2 582.2 47.9 97.0 -33.7 150.0 96.0 61.2 52.2 69.1 Advertising 4.9 17.6 -12.4 -13.4 -17.6 -4.2 19.8 33.4 -1.3 5.8 18.1 Appearance fees -4.7 -46.0 -50.3 82.5 -4.3 69.7 47.2 -47.7 -12.0 -0.1 -6.4 Other 38.2 -12.0 177.1 -32.2 70.2 61.7 15.0 79.5 12.8 51.0 26.2 Operating profit -64.1 30.9 664.0 29.4 322.7 3.9 74.5 18.6 47.7 44.9 27.9 Net profit -36.0 7.6 603.4 46.6 241.2 -5.2 73.7 1.2 48.3 37.7 20.0 Net profit attributable to -37.2 7.5 592.2 48.3 249.4 -5.9 80.0 2.1 47.4 40.0 19.8 controlling interests Key assumptions Domestic album sales volume 454 565 769 947 130 857 461 495 2,736 1,943 2,414 (‘000) Ticket sales volume in Japan 73 108 83 94 150 220 120 90 357 580 805 (‘000) Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; concert ticket sales volume is based on actual timing of concert and includes our estimates. Source: Company d ata, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 November 15, 2019 JYP Entertainment Figure 1. 12-month forward P/E band: Currently trading at 18x P/E (based on consensus) (W) 50,000 Share price (adj.) 45x 40,000 30x 30,000 18x 20,000 10,000 10x 0 1/11 1/12 1/13 1/14 1/15 1/16 1/17 1/18 1/19 1/20 Source: WISEfn, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Figure 2. Japanese concert attendance by artist ('000 persons) 900 ITZY Wooyoung 800 Junho Jun. K JYP Nation Stray Kids 700 DAY6 TWICE 600 GOT7 2PM 500 400 300 200 100 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 3 November 15, 2019 JYP Entertainment JYP Entertainment (035900 KQ/Buy/TP: W31,000) Comprehensive Income Statement (Summarized) Statement of Financial Condition (Summarized) (Wbn) 12/18 12/19F 12/20F 12/21F (Wbn) 12/18 12/19F 12/20F 12/21F Revenue 125 153 184 200 Current Assets 83 122 170 217 Cost of Sales 69 81 98 105 Cash and Cash Equivalents 45 79 117 160 Gross Profit 56 72 86 95 AR & Other Receivables 13 15 19 20 SG&A Expenses 27 30 33 35 Inventories 1 2 2 2 Operating Profit (Adj) 29 42 53 59 Other Current Assets 24 26 32 35 Operating Profit 29 42 53 59 Non-Current Assets 77 79 75 72 Non-Operating Profit 1 -1 0 0 Investments in Associates 0 0 0 0 Net Financial Income 0 1 2 3 Property, Plant and Equipment 37 37 33 30 Net Gain from Inv in Associates 0 0 0 0 Intangible Assets 29 29 29 29 Pretax Profit 30 41 53 59 Total Assets 159 201 245 289 Income Tax 6 8 13 14 Current Liabilities 31 35 43 47 Profit from Continuing Operations 24 33 40 45 AP & Other Payables 9 10 13 14 Profit from Discontinued Operations 0 0 0 0 Short-Term Financial Liabilities 0 0 0 0 Net Profit 24 33 40 45 Other Current Liabilities 22 25 30 33 Controlling Interests 24 33 40 44 Non-Current Liabilities 1 2 2 2 Non-Controlling Interests 0 0 0 0 Long-Term Financial Liabilities 0 1 1 1 Total Comprehensive Profit 24 33 40 45 Other Non-Current Liabilities 1 1 1 1 Controlling Interests 24 33 40 44 Total Liabilities 31 37 45 49 Non-Controlling Interests 0 0 1 1 Controlling Interests 127 160 196 236 EBITDA 30 46 57 62 Capital Stock 18 18 18 18 FCF (Free Cash Flow) 10 38 47 49 Capital Surplus 71 77 77 77 EBITDA Margin (%) 24.0 30.1 31.0 31.0 Retained Earnings 48 78 113 153 Operating Profit Margin (%) 23.2 27.5 28.8 29.5 Non-Controlling Interests 1 4 4 4 Net Profit Margin (%) 19.2 21.6 21.7 22.0 Stockholders' Equity 128 164 200 240 Cash Flows (Summarized) Forecasts/Valuations (Summarized) (Wbn) 12/18 12/19F 12/20F 12/21F 12/18 12/19F 12/20F 12/21F Cash Flows from Op Activities 22 39 47 49 P/E (x) 44.2 23.5 19.6 17.8 Net Profit 24 33 40 45 P/CF (x) 30.6 17.8 14.4 13.4 Non-Cash Income and Expense 10 10 14 14 P/B (x) 7.7 4.5 3.8 3.2 Depreciation 1 4 4 3 EV/EBITDA (x) 33.8 15.1 11.4 9.7 Amortization 0 0 0 0 EPS (W) 685 941 1,127 1,243 Others 9 6 10 11 CFPS (W) 988 1,239 1,535 1,654 Chg in Working Capital -4 0 3 1 BPS (W) 3,930 4,859 5,864 6,985 Chg in AR & Other Receivables -3 -2 -3 -2 DPS (W) 122 122 122 122 Chg in Inventories 0 0 0 0 Payout ratio (%) 16.6 13.0 10.8 9.7 Chg in AP & Other Payables -2 0 1 1 Dividend Yield (%) 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 Income Tax Paid -8 -6 -13 -14 Revenue
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