City of San Juan Capistrano Local Hazard Mitigation Plan (DRAFT) Table of Contents Chapter 1: Introduction Plan Purpose.........................................................................................................................1 Authorities............................................................................................................................2 Plan Adoption ......................................................................................................................3 Plan Use ...............................................................................................................................5 Mitigation Goals ..................................................................................................................5 Hazard Mitigation Planning Process ....................................................................................6 Public Engagement ..............................................................................................................8 State and Federal Guidelines and Requirements for mitigation plans ...............................11 Use of Existing Data ..........................................................................................................11 Public Review Draft ...........................................................................................................15 Plan Revision and Adoption ..............................................................................................15 Plan Maintenance ...............................................................................................................15 Continued Public Involvement ..........................................................................................18 Point of Contact .................................................................................................................18 Chapter 2: Community Profile History................................................................................................................................19 Population and Demographics ...........................................................................................20 Vulnerable Populations ......................................................................................................22 Projected Population Growth .............................................................................................28 Economic Trends ...............................................................................................................28 Employment and Industry ..................................................................................................30 Transportation and Commuting Patterns ...........................................................................32 Housing and Community Development.............................................................................33 Existing Land Use ..............................................................................................................34 Development Trends and Future Development .................................................................38 Evacuation Routes .............................................................................................................39 Critical Facilities ................................................................................................................41 Chapter 3: Hazard Assessment Hazard Identification .........................................................................................................55 Climate Change Considerations .........................................................................................58 Hazard Profiles...................................................................................................................60 Summary of Vulnerability ...............................................................................................166 Hazard Prioritization ........................................................................................................171 Chapter 4: Hazard Mitigation Stratigy Overview ..........................................................................................................................175 Goals and Objectives of Hazard Mitigation.....................................................................175 Hazard/Threat Assessment...............................................................................................177 Capabilities Assessment...................................................................................................177 Mitigation Actions ...........................................................................................................183 FEMA National Flood Insurance Program ......................................................................201 Relationship to Other City Plans......................................................................................202 August 2019 i Page Left Blank Intentionally City of San Juan Capistrano Local Hazard Mitigation Plan (DRAFT) CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION Natural hazards have existed throughout time and have a life cycle of occurrence. This cycle is matched by a series of emergency management phases: preparedness, response, recovery, and mitigation. However, when natural hazards such as earthquakes, floods, or windstorms are at their height, they pose severe risk to people and property. They can cause death, injuries, or displace people from their homes, cause significant damage to the community, businesses, public infrastructure, and environment, and cost tremendous amounts in terms of response and recovery dollars, further contributing to economic loss. A successful hazard mitigation plan includes a strategy that enables the implementation and sustainment of local actions that reduce vulnerability and risk from hazards and reduces the severity of the effects of hazards on people and property. Historically, in many local jurisdictions, disasters are followed by repairs and reconstruction, which simply restore the area to pre-disaster conditions; however, the replication of pre‐disaster conditions results in a cycle of damage, reconstruction, and repeated damage. Such efforts may expedite a return to normalcy; hazard mitigation ensures that post‐disaster repairs and reconstruction results in a true reduction of future hazard vulnerability. While disasters cannot be prevented from occurring, their effects can be reduced or eliminated through a mitigation strategy that includes a well‐organized public education and awareness effort, preparedness activities, and mitigation actions. For those hazards that cannot be fully mitigated, the community must be prepared to provide efficient and effective response and recovery. This Local Hazard Mitigation Plan (LHMP) outlines opportunities to increase San Juan Capistrano’s resiliency in the face of future natural hazards. PLAN PURPOSE Under the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act (Public Law 93-288), as amended by the Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000, local governments are required to develop a hazard mitigation plan as a condition for receiving certain types of emergency and non-emergency disaster assistance, including funding for mitigation projects and emergency response. Local Hazard Mitigation Plans must be updated every five years. The City of San Juan Capistrano’s Local Hazard Mitigation Plan (LHMP) was previously approved by FEMA, dated July 20, 2007. The purpose of this revision to the Local Hazard Mitigation Plan is to identify the City’s hazards, review and assess past disaster occurrences, estimate the probability of future occurrences, and set goals to mitigate potential risks to reduce or eliminate long-term risks to people and property from natural and man-made hazards. The City of San Juan Capistrano’s disaster-mitigation strategy is on-going. The goal is to update and maintain a plan inclusive to nearby jurisdictions, special districts, businesses, and community organizations to promote a collaborative mitigation effort. The City’s planning process followed a methodology presented by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the California Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES). The process included inviting officials and representatives from Federal, State, and local agencies, as well as, special districts, school districts, non-profit organizations, and the general public to participate in the planning process. August 2019 1 City of San Juan Capistrano Local Hazard Mitigation Plan (DRAFT) AUTHORITIES Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) This plan complies with the Federal Disaster Mitigation Act (2000), Federal Register 44 CFR Parts 201 and 206, which modified the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act by adding a new section, 322 - Mitigation Planning. This law, as of November 1, 2004, requires local governments to develop and submit hazard mitigation plans as a condition of receiving Hazard Mitigation Grant Program (HMGP) funding and other mitigation project grants. Hazard mitigation planning is governed by the Stafford Act, as amended by the Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000 (DMA 2000), and by federal regulations implementing the Stafford Act. DMA 2000 revised the Stafford Act to require state, local, and tribal governments to develop and submit to FEMA a mitigation plan that outlines processes for identifying the natural hazards, risks, and vulnerabilities of the jurisdiction. To implement the mitigation planning