Regional Event Briefing

Jim Croston P.E., Scott Henderson P.E. John Daylor P.E. Hydrology and Hydraulics Branch September 28, 2010

US Army Corps of Engineers

BUILDING STRONG® Regional Event Briefing: Reservoir Infow & Elevation Forecasting

John Daylor P.E. Hydrology and Hydraulics Branch September 28, 2010

US Army Corps of Engineers

BUILDING STRONG® Reservoir Inflow & Elevation Forecasting:

What is it? Obtain estimated stream flow into reservoir to anticipate effects and actions for reservoir managg(g,p,ement (timing, peak, and volume) .

Why? Enhance decisions & operations of reservoir & syyppstem for authorized purposes.

BUILDING STRONG® Variability of Reservoir Inflow and Elevation Forecasting

¾ NonNon--ExactExact Science of Hydrology ¾ Antecedence, Moisture Conditions ¾ Seasonal Effects ¾ Storm Size & Pattern & Duration ¾ Field Data Reliability ¾ Initial Conditions of Reservoir ¾ Basin System Conditions, Fullness

BUILDING STRONG® Upper Verdigris River Basin

Toronto Lake

Fall River Lake

Big Hill Lake Elk City Lake

Oologah Lake

BUILDING STRONG® Upper Verdigris River Basin

Regulation Point

Toronto Lake

Coyville

Fall River Altoona Fall River Lake Fredonia

Elk City Lake Big Hill Lake Cherryvale Independence

Coffeyville

Lenapah Oologah Lake

BUILDING STRONG® Toronto Lake & Dam: Upper Verdigris River Basin

BUILDING STRONG® 24-Hour Precipitation from Digital Radar 7 AM 8 June – 7 AM 9 June 2010

7.72’’

7827.82’’

Toronto Dam 3.10’’

BUILDING STRONG® Verdigris River @ Virgil, KS Observed & Forecasted River Flow

BUILDING STRONG® Toronto Lake Inflow & Elevation Forecast

Surcharge Zone Top Flood Storage Zone Elev 931.0

@ Elev 926.0 Flood Storage Zone 73.2% F.S.

Normal Lake Elev 901.5

Forecasted Inflow

Release Plan

BUILDING STRONG® Reservoir Inflow & Elevation Forecasting Questions?

BUILDING STRONG®