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Dairy in a 'New Normal'; Execution Drives Divergence; Initiate: Buy Yili

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Dairy in a 'New Normal'; Execution Drives Divergence; Initiate: Buy Yili August 13, 2016 China: Consumer Staples Equity Research Dairy in a ‘new normal’; execution drives divergence; Initiate: Buy Yili China dairy enters a ‘new normal’ with milk prices remaining weak In our view, the once fast-growing China dairy market has entered a ‘new HOW OUR VIEWS DIFFER FROM STREET 1: We expect China dairy growth to be slower for normal’ of low single-digit growth. High-income consumers have reached longer: penetration not as low as it looks, dairy still saturation point for dairy, with consumption in tier 1/2 cities now on a par not a necessity with Japan and Korea. Meanwhile, we expect low-end consumer demand 2: Functional, high protein products to lead growth will be subdued, due to the economy cooling and given that dairy is not a – Yogurt the next five-year bright spot daily staple for this cohort of the population. 3: Yili’s margin expansion undervalued – strong branding and distribution drive better product mix We forecast only 3% milk volume CAGR to 2020, against which we expect the China raw milk price to remain weak — at Rmb3.4/kg. Even though we YOGURT TO DOUBLE TO RMB22 BILLION BY 2020 expect global oversupply to balance out over the next 18 months, with the ASP CAGR Dairy Market Size 2015-2020E (US$) 5.0% 2015 2020E China milk price 30% above international prices, we expect imports will Yog urt , 4.0% also play a role in keeping a lid on the domestic price. 12bn ->22bn 3.0% Ice Cream Flavored Milk UHT milk 13bn->17bn Pasteurized Valued-added product to drive growth; Yogurt to thrive 2.0% 13bn->12bn 1.0% In this slow growth stage, we expect earnings growth to come from: (1) 0.0% IMF The shift in consumer preference to functional, high-protein products in tier 17bn-18bn 1/ 2 cities; (2) Gradual increase in milk drinking in lower-tier cities. We -1.0% Volume CAGR -2.0% expect yogurt, which is increasingly regarded as nutritional and good for -5.0% -3.0% -1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 7.0% 9.0% 11.0% digestion, will outperform all other categories to grow at double-digit Source: Euromonitor, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. CAGR, and almost double in size to Rmb22bn. Overall, we forecast the China dairy profit pool to rise by a smaller 1.6X to US$5.8bn in 2020. COVERAGE SNAPSHOT – RESUMING COVERAGE Market Company Cap (USD Target Upside / 2017E Execution is now key; Initiate coverage, Buy Yili, Sell Want Want Ticker name mn) Price Rating Downside P/E 600887.SS Yili 17,387 Rmb 21.5 Buy 18% 18.2 1112.HK Biostime 1,644 HK$ 26.9 Neutral 14% 15.0 With greater competition and the slower growth environment, execution 2319.HK Mengniu 5,770 HK$ 12.9 Neutral -3% 19.4 1117.HK CMD 620 HK$ 1.05 Neutral -5% 10.7 will be key for winning market share. In this regard, Yili (Buy) stands out: 600597.SS Bright Dairy 2,856 Rmb 13.2 Neutral -11% 36.8 its flat one-tier distribution network enables it to better gauge changing 0151.HK Want Want 8,455 HK$ 4.2 Sell -15% 17.5 Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment consumer demand; it has leading product offerings, effective branding and Research. a proven management team that we expect to drive high returns, of sector leading 13% EPS CAGR over 2015-18E. We expect it to gain market share UPCOMING EVENTS with its premium products and believe the share price is not factoring in 2Q16/1H16 Company Results: mid to late Aug strong margin improvement (170bps higher operating margin by 2018). We see Want Want (Sell) as being poorly positioned for these industry trends, with its product mix skewed to less healthy flavored milk and its conservative approach to marketing and distribution leading to market share losses and falling earnings. We also initiate coverage of Mengniu, Bright Dairy, Biostime and China Modern Dairy with Neutral ratings. Lincoln Kong, CFA +852-2978-6603 [email protected] Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with Joshua Lu companies covered in its research reports. As a result, +852-2978-1024 [email protected] Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of Kevin Li interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors +65-6654-5190 [email protected] Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte should consider this report as only a single factor in making Xufa Liao, CFA +86(21)2401-8902 [email protected] Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non- US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Global Investment Research August 13, 2016 China: Consumer Staples Contents Our thesis in 6 charts 4 China dairy enters a ‘new normal’ stage; milk price to remain weak 5 Slower growth for longer 5 Global milk price recovering in 2017, but China raw milk price to remain weak 7 Next growth driver: high protein, functional; Yogurt the bright spot 11 China profit pool to increase 1.6X by 2020 to Rmb5.8bn 11 Yogurt will be the bright spot 13 Execution is now the key: Yili stands out on distribution, branding 16 Products, branding, distribution, mgmt. comparison 16 Dairy 2020: Yili to gain market share in key product categories 24 Valuation: Yili our top pick, Want Want overvalued 29 Yili (Buy): A long-term stand-out leader; fastest sales/EPS growth 33 Want Want (Sell): Weaker brand could lead to further sales drop 40 Mengniu (Neutral): Sales recovering, but margin drags earnings 46 Biostime (Neutral): Swisse offset by weak IMF; Policy the key focus 51 Bright Dairy (Neutral): Stalled sales, GPM expansion offset by ANP 57 CMD (Neutral): Weak upstream to persist, brand expansion slower 62 Appendix: China dairy overview 68 Disclosure Appendix 74 Prices as of August 9, 2016 close, unless otherwise stated. Exhibit 1: Comp Sheet (China and Global dairy) BBG Ticker Name Mkt Cap Last GS Target List ReportPrice EPS 15-17 PE PE PEG EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA P/B P/B Div Yield Div Yield ROE ROE Close Rating Price Crncy Crncy 6M Chg CAGR CY16 CY17 2Yr CY16 CY17 CY15 CY16E CY16E CY17E CY16E CY17 US$m Price L.C. L.C. L.C. % % (X) (X) CAGR (X) (X) (X) (X) % % % % China Dairy 600887 CH Yili 16,700 18.3 Buy 21.5 CNY CNY 37.0 13.5 20.5 18.1 1.5 13.4 11.6 5.6 5.0 2.9 3.3 25.5 25.9 2319 HK Mengniu 6,894 13.6 Neutral 12.9 HKD CNY 19.2 2.6 20.4 19.4 7.7 12.3 11.8 2.0 1.9 1.0 1.0 8.3 8.1 600597 CH Bright Dairy 2,770 15.0 Neutral 13.2 CNY CNY 40.1 7.8 38.8 36.3 5.0 13.3 13.0 4.1 3.8 1.2 1.3 8.7 8.7 151 HK Want Want China 8,345 5.1 Sell 4.2 HKD USD (5.2) (5.8) 16.7 17.9 (2.9) 9.7 10.2 4.5 4.1 0.4 0.4 26.0 22.2 1117 HK Modern Dairy^ 759 1.1 Neutral 1.05 HKD CNY (20.7) (14.4) 16.2 8.7 (1.1) 26.5 15.8 0.6 0.7 - - (7.1) (0.2) Average 35,468 20.9 19.5 1.9 12.6 11.5 4.4 4.0 1.7 1.9 20.3 19.7 China IMF 1112 HK Biostime 1,918 23.6 Neutral 26.9 HKD CNY 9.0 89.5 16.7 15.4 0.2 9.4 8.8 3.4 2.8 1.3 1.4 19.2 17.4 1230 HK Yashili 1,046 1.7 NC N/A HKD CNY (4.5) 54.4 40.7 23.6 0.7 17.3 9.8 NA 1.1 1.0 0.8 3.0 4.6 002570 CH Beingmate 1,909 12.4 NC N/A CNY CNY 13.9 31.5 100.9 71.7 3.2 32.8 27.8 NA 3.4 0.2 0.1 1.5 4.5 Average 59,110 54.8 39.2 1.5 20.3 16.5 3.4 2.7 0.8 0.8 8.8 9.6 Global leaders BN FP Danone 50,334 68.8 NR N/A EUR EUR 16.0 4.1 22.7 21.5 5.5 12.5 12.1 3.5 3.5 2.4 2.5 14.5 14.9 NESN VX Nestle 247,695 78.0 Sell 65.0 CHF CHF 7.0 4.4 23.1 21.6 5.2 15.0 14.1 NA 3.6 3.0 2.8 16.2 16.7 FSF NZ Fonterra 6,673 5.8 NC N/A NZD NZD (0.2) 15.5 10.9 10.7 0.7 7.9 7.6 NA 1.3 6.9 7.2 12.5 12.5 ALMARAI AB Almarai 11,733 55.0 Buy 72.0 SAR SAR 6.9 10.7 21.5 17.6 2.0 15.9 13.8 4.2 3.8 2.1 2.1 17.8 19.5 CHR DC CHR Hansen 8,455 427.8 Neutral 452.0 DKK EUR 8.9 13.2 37.6 34.1 2.8 25.0 21.6 33.2 25.2 0.2 0.2 78.8 57.7 MJN US Mead Johnson 16,363 88.6 Neutral 96.0 USD USD 25.3 6.0 25.2 23.0 4.2 16.8 15.6 NA NA 2.1 2.4 (114.5) (101.9) 2269 JP Meiji 14,849 9,850.0 Neutral 12,000.0 JPY JPY 6.7 6.8 20.3 20.3 3.0 11.7 10.9 3.8 3.3 1.0 1.4 15.7 14.6 Average 341,253 22.2 20.7 4.7 14.1 13.2 21.9 3.8 2.6 2.6 11.0 11.4 China F&B/FMCG 322 HK Tingyi 5,382 7.5 Neutral 6.4 HKD USD (12.5) (4.2) 24.3 18.8 (5.8) 7.8 6.8 1.8 1.8 0.2 0.3 5.6 6.9 220 HK UPC 3,470 6.2 Neutral 6.5 HKD CNY 24.6 17.5 23.7 20.3 1.4 9.1 8.0 1.9 1.9 0.7 0.9 8.2 8.9 168 HK Tsingtao 5,522 28.6 Sell 24.3 HKD CNY (0.3) (1.2) 26.0 24.9 (22.6) 12.3 11.8 2.0 1.9 1.0 1.1 7.8 7.7 600519 CH Kweichow Moutai 59,606 315.4 Buy 332.3 CNY CNY 54.7 16.1 22.2 19.0 1.4 13.2 11.1 6.2 5.4 2.3 2.6 25.1 25.4 1044 HK Hengan 10,455 66.9 NC N/A HKD HKD (0.4) 6.1 18.6 17.9 3.1 11.6 11.1 NA 4.3 3.3 2.8 23.8 22.8 288 HK WH Group 11,332 6.0 Buy* 7.4 HKD USD 39.5 9.2 12.2 10.8 1.3 6.3 5.7 2.1 1.9 0.3 0.5 14.2 14.2 Average 8,851 21.0 18.3 (0.2) 11.7 10.2 4.9 4.3 1.9 2.1 21.0 21.2 ^ Excl.
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