The Second Automotive Revolution Is Underway. the Scenarios in Confrontation
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1 The Second Automotive Revolution Is Underway. The scenarios in confrontation Michel Freyssenet Since the publication of our book The Second Automotive Revolution (Freyssenet, 2009), many signs seem to confirm that the transition to clean vehicles is actually start- ing (Calabrese, 2010, Jullien 2010). Use of fuel, natural gas or liquefied petroleum gas is growing steadily. Number of models of hybrid vehicles, battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid cars has increased significantly. Launch projects by 2015 of these types of cars are still more numerous (Table 1). Car manufacturers are increasing the testing of plug-in and electric vehicles under real conditions. Plans for installing the infrastruc- ture of batteries charging or exchange begin to run. Many States and local authorities have confirmed and sometimes extended, despite the crisis, their support program for new power trains. Research on batteries with autonomy similar to that of the internal combustion engine are firmly engaged and those on the fuel cells continues. Associa- tions, foundations, consortia, media, « initiatives » for the promotion of electric vehicles are proliferating. Finally, one can observe the evolution of the position and of the strat- egy of some States and of some automakers, a sign that the battle for the various transi- tion scenarios is well and truly underway. Three of the four conditions for a new automobile revolution are about to be fulfilled At the 17th International Symposium of GERPISA (Freyssenet 2009 b), we highlighted the four major conditions that made possible the automobile revolution at the turn of 19th and 20th centuries and the choice of oil internal combustion engine to the detri- ment of steam boiler and electricity motor (Bardou et al.1982, Mballa 1998, Mom 2004). Today three of these four conditions are met and they make probable a new car revolution (Freyssenet 2009 b) The first of these conditions is the urgency of solving the crisis of the transport sys- tem "door to door," based solely on animal traction yesterday, today on the oil engine. This urgency is imposing on all “automobilised”. Indeed, nothing seems now to be able to stop the trend of increasing real price of oil and natural gas, unless a durable global economic recession or the bursting of a serious crisis in one or more of the major emerging countries. China and India are also now convinced that they will not pursue their industrialization and their “automobilization" by continuing to focus on oil as an Freyssenet M., The Second Automobile Revolution is Underway. Scenarios in confrontation[/url], in G. Calabrese (ed.), The Greening of the Automobile Industry, Palgrave, 2012, 304-322 pL Digital publication, freyssenet.com, 2017, 200 Ko, ISSN 7116-0941. 2 energy source. In addition, the use value of automobile vehicles is declining, while their TCO (Total Cost of Ownership) and the cost of their externalities are steadily rising. Tolerance to congestion, pollution, accidents, balkanization spaces, etc. from oil car falls sharply in developed countries. Finally, global warming continues, and it was showed that the efforts made to limit its spread are today insufficient Table 1. Number of cleaner car models in the world, on sale in 2011, announced before 2015 and prototypes (non exhaustive census, June 2011) Cleaner car models Hybrid Plug-in Electric Hybrid On sale 2011 36 4 70 + 37 LS* Announced before 2015 25 29 60 + 4 LS* Prototypes 6 7 41 + 3 LS* Source: our elaboration * LS = low speed car model The transfer of new technologies developed in other sectors and the race for innova- tions are the second condition for an automotive revolution. Now we can see that both are accelerating. Moreover, there are so much public and private research on renewable energies and cleaner engines, and as many announcements of new technical solutions to solve the problems set by these energies and engines. The renewable energies are enter- ing a phase of mass industrialization. The third generation of bio fuels and of batteries are being studied and even some products are already tested. Miniaturized electronic devices allow the optimization of hybrid engines and of batteries. New car architectures are devised and new functionalities added. For example, the integration of electric mo- tors in the wheels, not only improves the driving, but also suppresses the engine com- partment in the body. This creates new possibilities to design the car, and to use it. The third condition for an automobile revolution is the formation of public and pri- vate actors coalitions, government decisions, agreements between States to uphold and implement one solution, and in particular to make available in any place and any time the energy required by the adopted type of engine. Focuses of the debate on the perfor- mance of the different power trains often forget that they form a system with the energy they need. The use of the term "automobile" to refer to existing vehicles is actually a malapropism. For now, the cars do not move by themselves, but with an energy that must be provided. This is essential to understand how a solution prevails over another. It is known that the oil internal combustion engine quickly prevailed on the electric mo- tor in the early 20th century, not because of its performances that were so poor, but be- cause of the absence of an electrical grid deploying in all the country, unlike oil which could be transported and stored easily anywhere by private agents (Mballa 1998). Utili- ties, local government and States were not then able to coalesce to invest and to plan for the rapid electrification of urban and rural areas, despite the expected geopolitical de- pendency on oil that their inability created for more than a century. Today, agro fuels and gas are available as oil, which they use or may use the existing oil distribution net- work. That is new today is the omnipresence of electricity. It has even become more readily available than oil, subject to the installation of adequate electric plugs in homes, buildings and public places. It can also be produced locally and partly stored. The vehi- cle itself can even produce a portion of the electricity it needs, thanks to photovoltaic panels and wind turbines which are more and more performant. Freyssenet M., The Second Automobile Revolution is Underway. Scenarios in confrontation[/url], in G. Calabrese (ed.), The Greening of the Automobile Industry, Palgrave, 2012, 304-322 pL Digital publication, freyssenet.com, 2017, 200 Ko, ISSN 7116-0941. 3 The fourth and final major condition of an automobile revolution is the existence of economic policy decisions that allow the dissemination and spread of new cleaner cars. The most important decisions concerns the policy of national income distribution, that determines the volume and the structure of the possible car demand and the environ- ment and energy policies that determines the rapidity of buyers choice for the cleaner car adopted. This four and major condition will be required only when will impose one of the threepossible transition scenarios, that we outlined at the 18th International Col- loquium of GERPISA: the “scenario of diversity”, “scenario of progressiveness” and “the scenario of rupture” (Freyssenet, 2011). Since that Colloquium, it has become pos- sible to better characterize these three scenarios, to present the first effects of their con- frontation and to evaluate their respective chances of winning. The scenario of diversity is in progress, but it paradoxically has few supporters and it probably has unlikely to win The scenario of diversity is characterized by the fact that the States would be able to impose on car manufacturers the energy source available to them naturally or commer- cially in good conditions. In this case, automakers would be forced either to specialize on some engines and some markets, or to offer all types of engines, to be present eve- rywhere. Indeed, in 2011, countries that are now the main automobile markets are distin- guished by their energy preference and by their industrial ambitions. They are divided into five groups. The first is the group continue to focus on oil, while being in favour of cleaner engines, including simple hybrid vehicles, such as the Middle East or Mexico. The second group gathers together countries that have chosen agro fuels, such as Brazil and Sweden (Amatucci, Spera, 2010). In the third group we find countries preferring natural gas, such as Italy, Pakistan, Russia, Poland, Iran (Stocchetti, Volpato, 2010). In the fourth group, are the countries that chose electricity. They promote plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles, such as the United States since the Obama administration, China, India, Korea since 2009, all Western European countries except Italy and Germany. In the fifth and final group are countries that refuse to favour a particular technical solu- tion. They consider that this choice is the concern of the sole carmakers responsibility. So that countries just set standards for reducing fuel consumption and air pollution, ac- cording to the technical and economic feasibility and the evolution of energetic, climat- ic, political and social constraints. Among these there were the United States before the Obama administration, Japan, Korea before 2009, Germany and the European Union (Table 2). Countries that defend the scenario of diversity, that is to say the continuation of cur- rent trends, are countries that have a high-energy specialisation or a strong economical ambition, but they know that they cannot impose their choice to other countries. It is the case of Brazil, Sweden, the Middle East, Mexico, Russia, Italy, Pakistan, Poland, Iran, etc., Manufacturers even if in fact, for the moment, they fit to national prefer- ences few among them, adopted a clear position in favour of the diversity scenario. Fiat and Volvo seem to be the only ones to clearly support it.