Prospects Co2 Capture Storage
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Energy Technology Analysis PROSPECTS FOR CO2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE 001-006 17/11/2004 12:00 Page 2 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY ORGANISATION FOR 9, rue de la Fédération, ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION 75739 Paris Cedex 15, France AND DEVELOPMENT The International Energy Agency (IEA) is an Pursuant to Article 1 of the Convention signed in autonomous body which was established in Paris on 14th December 1960, and which came November 1974 within the framework of the into force on 30th September 1961, the Organisation Organisation for Economic Co-operation and for Economic Co-operation and Development Development (OECD) to implement an inter- (OECD) shall promote policies designed: national energy programme. • to achieve the highest sustainable economic It carries out a comprehensive programme of growth and employment and a rising standard energy co-operation among twenty-six* of the of living in Member countries, while maintaining OECD’s thirty Member countries.The basic aims financial stability, and thus to contribute to the of the IEA are: development of the world economy; • to maintain and improve systems for coping • to contribute to sound economic expansion in with oil supply disruptions; Member as well as non-member countries in the • to promote rational energy policies in a global process of economic development; and context through co-operative relations with • to contribute to the expansion of world trade non-member countries, industry and inter- on a multilateral, non-discriminatory basis in national organisations; accordance with international obligations. • to operate a permanent information system on the international oil market; The original Member countries of the OECD are Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, • to improve the world’s energy supply and Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, demand structure by developing alternative Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, energy sources and increasing the efficiency of Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United energy use; Kingdom and the United States. The following • to assist in the integration of environmental and countries became Members subsequently through energy policies. accession at the dates indicated hereafter: Japan (28th April 1964), Finland (28th January 1969), * IEA Member countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Australia (7th June 1971), New Zealand (29th May Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, 1973), Mexico (18th May 1994), the Czech Republic France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, (21st December 1995), Hungary (7th May 1996), Japan, the Republic of Korea, Luxembourg, Poland (22nd November 1996), the Republic of the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Korea (12th December 1996) and Slovakia Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United (28th September 2000). The Commission of the Kingdom, the United States. The European European Communities takes part in the work of Commission also takes part in the work of the IEA. the OECD (Article 13 of the OECD Convention). © OECD/IEA, 2004 Applications for permission to reproduce or translate all or part of this publication should be made to: Head of Publications Service, OECD/IEA 2, rue André-Pascal, 75775 Paris Cedex 16, France or 9, rue de la Fédération, 75739 Paris Cedex 15, France. 001-006 17/11/2004 12:00 Page 3 FOREWORD 3 FOREWORD Fossil fuels will be used extensively and CO2 emissions will rise over the next half century, if no new policies are put in place. It is clear that such a development is not sustainable. A number of options exist that can reduce the CO2 emissions from the energy system. These include improved energy efficiency and a switch to renewable and nuclear energy. However, policies based on these options will, at best, only partly solve the problem. Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technologies constitute another promising option that can drastically reduce these emissions. To accomplish this, governments need to take action now to ensure that CCS technologies are developed and deployed on a large scale over the next few decades. This publication describes the challenges that must be overcome for a CCS strategy to reach market introduction and achieve its full potential within the next 30-50 years. The quantitative and qualitative analyses in this book reveal that large-scale uptake of capture and storage technologies is probably 10 years off, and that without a major increase in RD&D investment, the technology will not be in place to realize its full potential in the coming decades. Effective emission reduction incentives will be needed to achieve market deployment from 2015 onward. Additional policies will have to be implemented to remove barriers and reduce uncertainties. If the right action is taken, CCS could become an essential ‘transition technology’ to a sustainable energy system for the next 50 to 100 years. This volume shows how CCS technologies can help to reduce emissions significantly over the coming two to five decades. The analysis includes three important elements. First, it provides a comprehensive overview of the prospects, costs and RD&D challenges of CO2 capture, transportation and storage technologies. Second, using a newly developed energy technology model, it presents global scenario analyses that investigate how CCS technologies can contribute to reducing CO2 emissions and what conditions would be necessary to justify stepping up RD&D and international efforts to advance CCS. Finally, the third element highlights the priority policy actions that should be taken to ensure the timely deployment of CCS technologies. The results suggest that an aggressive policy of developing and deploying CCS technologies could indeed achieve substantial reductions in worldwide CO2 emissions. Although the main role of CCS would be in the electricity sector, interesting possibilities also exist in manufacturing and in the production of transportation fuels. With sufficient technology investment, and after successfully solving various environmental and legal issues, CCS can provide a way to curb greenhouse gas emissions substantially at acceptable costs in most areas in the world. This publication is the first in a new IEA series entitled Energy Technology Analysis. The goal of this series is to use quantitative model analysis for the assessment of the prospects of emerging energy technologies and their potential impact on energy supply security, economic development and the environment. I am confident that this analysis provides new insights for IEA member governments and other decision makers on how to use innovative technologies as part of an efficient long-term emissions mitigation strategy. Claude Mandil Executive Director 001-006 17/11/2004 12:00 Page 4 001-006 17/11/2004 12:00 Page 5 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 5 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The main authors of this book are Dolf Gielen and Jacek Podka´nski, with contributions from Fridtjof Unander. The work was done under the supervision of Marianne Haug, Director of the Energy Technology and R&D Office of the International Energy Agency. I t is a result of close cooperation between the Energy Technology Policy Division, headed by Carmen Difiglio until September 2004 and by Fridtjof Unander thereafter, and the Energy Technology C ollaboration Division, headed by Antonio Pflüger. The study also benefited from input by other IEA colleagues, namely: Fatih Birol, Rick Bradley, John Cameron, François Cattier, Niclas Mattsson, Cédric Philibert and Rick Sellers. A number of experts provided input to the study, commented on the underlying analytical work, reviewed early drafts of the manuscript and provided guidance for the model development. Their comments and suggestions were of great value. Prominent contributors include: Stefan Bachu (Alberta Geological Survey, Canada), Graham Campbell (Natural Resources Canada), Carmen Difiglio (Department of Energy, USA), John Davison (IEA Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme, UK), Augustin Flory (Consultant, France), Paul Freund (IEA Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme, UK), John Gale (IEA Greenhouse Gas and R&D Programme, UK), Gary Goldstein (International Resources Group, USA), Ian Hayhow (Natural Resources Canada), Hubert Höwener (Research Center Jülich, Germany), Olav Kaarstad (Statoil ASA, Norway), Jostein Dahl Karlsen (Ministry of Petroleum and Energy, Norway), John “Skip” Laitner (EPA, USA), Barbara McKee (Department of Energy, USA), Peter Markewitz (Research Center Jülich, Germany), Hanns-Joachim Neef (Research Center Jülich, Germany), Ken Noble (Noble-Soft, Australia), Ed Rubin (Carnegie Mellon University, USA), Michael Sachse (Research Center Jülich, Germany), Jochen Seier (Research Center Jülich, Germany), Koen Smekens (Energy research Centre of the Netherlands), John Topper (IEA C lean Coal Centre, UK), GianCarlo Tosato (ETSAP and Max-Planck-Institut für Plasmaphysik, Germany ), Clas-Otto Wene (Consultant, Sweden), the participants of the IEA Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme (ETSAP) and the members of the IEA Working Party on Fossil Fuels. All errors and omissions are solely the responsibility of the authors. The Energy Technology Perspectives model development could not have been achieved without substantial financial support provided by the governments of many countries, notably Canada, Japan, Norway, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States. The manuscript was edited by Sally Bogle, Kathleen Gray and Geoff Morrison. Assistance with preparation of the manuscript was provided by Muriel Custodio, Corinne Hayworth and Loretta