Its Nuclear Arsenal

Israel and the Middle East News Update

Friday, June 22

Headlines:

• Israeli Minister Hints at 'Large-Scale Operation' in Gaza • Kushner, Greenblatt In Israel For Talks on Peace Push, Gaza • Jordan King Heads to US to Discuss Peace Plan with Trump • UNESCO To Defer Jerusalem, Hebron Controversies in Bahrain Meeting • Bill Would Give Officers in East Jerusalem Prosecution Immunity • Indictment Implicates PM's Wife in Offenses Blamed on Saidoff • Herzog to Lead Jewish Agency Despite Netanyahu’s Opposition • NBA Stars Visit Never on Cards, Despite Regev's Promise

Commentary: • The New Yorker: “How Trump and Three Other U.S. Presidents Protected Israel’s Worst-Kept Secret: Its Nuclear Arsenal” - By Adam Entous, staff writer at The New Yorker • Ha’aretz: “The Name Missing From Sara Netanyahu’s Indictment” - By Anshel Pfeffer, columnist at Ha’aretz

S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 633 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 5th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 The Hon. Robert Wexler, President ● Yoni Komorov, Editor ● Aaron Zucker, Associate Editor

News Excerpts June 22, 2018 I24 News Israeli Minister Hints at 'Large-Scale Operation' in Gaza Public Security Minister Gilad Erdan said Thursday that Israel may be forced to launch a “large-scale military operation” in the Gaza Strip in response to continued launching of burning kites into Israel. “I don’t want to launch an operation, but there is a good chance that we will have no other option but to go in so that we can create durable deterrence,” he said on Army Radio. Erdan also remarked that anyone launching burning kites into Israel should be treated like a terrorist and shot regardless of age. “Age doesn’t matter, they’re terrorists and the danger they create must be prevented,” he said. See also, “ Erdan warns 'very high chance' of Gaza op in coming months” (Times of Israel)

Times of Israel Kushner, Greenblatt In Israel For Talks on Peace Push, Gaza US President Donald Trump’s son-in-law and adviser Jared Kushner and his special envoy Jason Greenblatt arrived in Israel today on the final leg of a Middle East tour aimed at promoting the US administration’s as-yet unveiled Israeli-Palestinian peace plan and securing humanitarian relief for Gaza. Kushner and Greenblatt are scheduled to be in the Jewish state through Saturday for talks with Israeli leaders. The two US envoys over the past several days have visited Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar in a whirlwind tour. See also, “ Kushner meets with Egypt, Qatar leaders about Mideast plan” (Reuters)

Times of Israel Jordan King Heads to US to Discuss Peace Plan with Trump Jordan — Jordan’s King Abdullah II set off for the United States on Thursday for talks with US President Donald Trump on Middle East issues including the stalled Israeli-Palestinian peace process, the palace said. Accompanied by his wife Rania, the monarch is also scheduled to meet with senior officials from the Trump administration and members of Congress, the palace said in a statement. His meeting with Trump is expected to take place at the White House on Monday. The White House said in a statement that they would “discuss issues of mutual concern, including terrorism, the threat from Iran and the crisis in Syria, and working towards a lasting peace between Israelis and Palestinians.” See also, “Why Jordan will be key to any Mideast peace deal” (Al Monitor)

Jerusalem Post UNESCO To Defer Jerusalem, Hebron Controversies in Bahrain UNESCO’s World Heritage Committee is expected to defer any controversial issues regarding Jerusalem and Hebron when it holds its annual meeting in Bahrain from June 24 to July 4, according to Israel’s Ambassador Carmel Shama-Hacohen. In past years, the committee, in a fashion similar to the UNESCO Executive Board, has also vote down resolutions disavowing Israeli sovereignty on Jerusalem. Last year the committee voted to ascribe Hebron’s Old Town, including the Tomb of the Patriarchs, to the Palestinian Authority. But this year, an agreement has been reached by which the committee won’t approve any controversial texts regarding either city; any such texts will be deferred until next year’s annual meeting. As a result of the agreement, Israel’s chief envoy to UNESCO Shama- Hacohen won’t travel to Bahrain. A low-level delegation will represent the country.

Ha’aretz Bill Would Give Officers in E. Jerusalem Prosecution Immunity Public Security Minister Gilad Erdan is advancing an amendment that would give Border Police forces operating in East Jerusalem immunity from lawsuits for damages they cause in the course of acting against terror or rioting. Under current law, Israel Defense Forces soldiers and Border Police troops are protected from damage suits filed by Palestinians, as long as they were acting “on the grounds of combat activity” which is defined as “any activity to fight terror, hostile actions or an uprising.” But this protection is valid only in the WB. The law also grants protection to IDF soldiers acting in areas within the Green Line, but not to police who can be sued by E.Jerusalem Arabs for damages caused during anti-terror actions. See also, “ Ban on filming soldiers bill passes preliminary Knesset reading” (Globes)

Ynet News Indictment Implicates PM's Wife in Offenses Blamed on Saidoff Sara Netanyahu, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s wife, who was indicted on Thursday in the “Residence Affair” for misusing state funds for prersonal purchases, was also charged of misdemeanors that were attributed exclusively to her former deputy director-general of the Prime Minister's Office Ezra Saidoff, a closer examination of the indictment reveals. In a major breakthrough in the protracted investigation against the prime minister’s wife, Netanyahu was indicted at the Jerusalem Magistrates’ Court for fraudulently obtaining benefits under aggravated circumstances, fraud and breach of trust. She is suspected of ordering private meals worth some NIS 350,000 (roughly $96,600) from high-end restaurants with the state footing the bill, despite the fact that a cook had been hired to prepare the meals at the residence. See also, “SARA NETANYAHU’S FALL BRINGS A-G ONE STEP CLOSER TO INDICTING PM” (Jerusalem Post)

Jerusalem Post Herzog to Lead Jewish Agency Despite Netanyahu’s Opposition Opposition leader Isaac Herzog will replace Natan Sharansky as head of the Jewish Agency, the leadership nominating committee of the Jewish Agency announced Thursday, even though Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did not want him to receive the post. Herzog will assume office no later than August 1 for a four-year term, pending the approval Sunday of the Agency's board of governors. His selection was made possible by changes in the Agency's bylaws that no longer require the prime minister's approval. "Your experience in the Knesset and the government, combined with your deep experience with the Diaspora makes you the ideal candidate to take over the reins of the Jewish Agency," the members of the selection committee wrote Herzog in a letter. See also, “Netanyahu's Choice Rejected: Opposition Leader Herzog Tapped as Next Jewish Agency Chief” (Ha’aretz)

Ynet News NBA Stars Visit Never on Cards, Despite Regev's Promise The NBA has announced there are no plans for the league’s star players to visit Israel this summer as part of Israel's 70th birthday celebrations, despite the claims of the Culture and Sport Minister Miri Regev that the event was already planned. The Culture and Sport Ministry confirmed the NBA announcement. The proposal to invite the NBA stars to Israel was initiated during Regev’s meeting with the NBA Commissioner Adam Silver in July 2017 when she visited New York last year. On the video, which was uploaded to Regev’s Facebook page after the meeting, Silver is shown thanking the Israeli NBA fans, saying “We’re excited to celebrate with you the 70th anniversary.” 3

The New Yorker – June 18, 2018 How Trump and Three Other U.S. Presidents Protected Israel’s Worst-Kept Secret: Its Nuclear Arsenal

By Adam Entous, staff writer at The New Yorker

• When a delegation of senior Israeli officials visited the Trump White House on February 13, 2017, they wanted to discuss several issues with their new American counterparts. Topping the list was a secret letter concerning a subject the Israelis had promised the Americans never to discuss publicly—Israel’s undeclared nuclear arsenal. In a recent piece for The New Yorker, I described a tense scene in the West Wing as the Israeli delegation—which included Israel’s Ambassador to the United States, Ron Dermer—tried to get the letter signed by President Donald Trump. By all accounts, the American Administration was eager to please the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, whom Trump had promised to lavish with unprecedented support. But, at that chaotic moment, Trump’s aides felt blindsided by the Israeli request. They knew nothing about the existence of any letters and were confused by the sense of urgency coming from the Israelis. The Americans had other pressing concerns—later that day, Michael Flynn, the national-security adviser, would hand in his resignation letter—and they didn’t appreciate feeling as though the Israelis were telling them what to do. “This is our fuckin’ house," one of the Americans snapped. • The White House’s reaction was understandable. There had been a similar moment of surprise eight years earlier, when Barack Obama became President and received a similar request. The very existence of the letters had been a closely held secret. Only a select group of senior American officials, in three previous Administrations, knew of the letters and how Israeli leaders interpreted them as effectively an American pledge not to press the Jewish state to give up its nuclear weapons so long as it continued to face existential threats in the region. (American officials say the letters weren’t that explicit and fell short of constituting a binding commitment.) When Trump’s aides moved into the White House, they didn’t find any copies of the previous letters left behind by their predecessors. The documents had been sent to the archives. The Israelis, however, had copies. • Israel crossed the nuclear threshold on the eve of the Six Day War, in 1967. At that time, it had three nuclear devices, according to Avner Cohen, a nuclear historian at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey and the author of two books on the origins of Israel’s nuclear program. Israeli efforts to build a bomb at the nuclear complex in Dimona had been a source of tension with Washington for nearly a decade. But, by the fall of 1969, when Golda Meir, Israel’s Prime Minister, met with Richard Nixon at the White House, Israel’s possession of nuclear weapons was a fait accompli and the two sides reached an unwritten understanding: the Israelis would not declare, test, or threaten to use their nuclear weapons; and the Americans would not pressure the Israelis to sign a landmark international nuclear-nonproliferation treaty known as the N.P.T. (Israel never became a signatory and U.S. efforts to inspect Dimona stopped.) • Successive Israeli governments abided by the arrangement, which, in Hebrew, is referred to as “amimut,” which means opacity. In English, the arrangement is often referred to as Israel's

“policy of ambiguity.” A joint document describing the agreement was never prepared. Instead, each side relied on its own notes, a former official said. President Gerald Ford abided by Nixon’s deal. Israeli officials were concerned that Jimmy Carter would chart a different course, but the American position, through the Carter and Reagan Administrations, remained unchanged. • The Israelis first started to feel as though the unwritten Meir-Nixon arrangement was no longer sufficient during the Presidency of George H. W. Bush, when, after the first Gulf War, in 1991, world powers talked about the possibility of creating a zone in the Middle East free of weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear arms. • The first iteration of the secret letter was drafted during the Clinton Administration, as part of an agreement for Israel’s participation in the 1998 Wye River negotiations with the Palestinians. In the letter, according to former officials, President Bill Clinton assured the Jewish state that no future American arms-control initiative would “detract” from Israel’s “deterrent” capabilities, an oblique but clear reference to its nuclear arsenal. Later, Israeli officials inserted language to make clear to Washington that Israel would “defend itself, by itself,” and that it would, therefore, not consider the American nuclear arsenal to be a substitute for Israeli nuclear arms. George W. Bush, when he became President, followed Clinton’s lead, signing a similar letter, former officials told me. • Then, in 2009, a new President, Barack Obama, took office. From almost the start, Netanyahu was distrustful of Obama, and vice versa. “With Obama, we were all crazy,” an Israeli official told me. That April, Obama delivered an aspirational speech in Prague, setting out “America’s commitment to seek the peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons.” Obama’s advisers subsequently learned “how paranoid Bibi was that Obama was going to try to take away Israel’s nuclear weapons,” a former U.S. official told me, adding, “Of course, that was never our intent.” Obama signed an updated version of the letter in May, 2009. • While Israeli officials interpreted the letters as an effective commitment by successive American Presidents not to pressure Israel regarding its nuclear arsenal, U.S. officials told me that they viewed the letters as less categorical. “It was not a blanket ‘We’ll never ask Israel to give up its nuclear weapons.’ It was more, ‘We accepted the Israeli argument that they’re not going to disarm under current conditions in the Middle East,” a former U.S. official told me. Avner Cohen, the Middlebury Institute historian, said that U.S. Administrations have been reluctant to give up entirely on the possibility of ridding the region of nuclear weapons if Israel were to reach a comprehensive peace agreement with its neighbors, including Iran. • Ahead of a nonproliferation conference in 2010, Netanyahu became concerned, once again, that Israel could come under international pressure to disarm. In response, Obama made a public statement that echoed the contents of the secret letters, without revealing their existence. “We discussed issues that arose out of the nuclear-nonproliferation conference,” Obama said, after meeting with Netanyahu on July 6, 2010. “And I reiterated to the Prime Minister that there is no change in U.S. policy when it comes to these issues. We strongly believe that, given its size, its history, the region that it’s in, and the threats that are levelled against . . . it, that Israel has unique security requirements. It’s got to be able to respond to threats or any combination of threats in the region. And that’s why we remain unwavering in our commitment to Israel’s security. And the United States will never ask Israel to take any steps that would undermine their security interests.”

• The tense scene in the West Wing over the letter came on the heels of a particularly chaotic transition, from Obama to Trump. Their advisers distrusted one another, and it is unclear if they ever discussed the Israeli letters before the Inauguration. So when Ambassador Dermer came to the White House to talk to Michael Flynn about arranging for Trump to sign the letter, Trump’s aides were confused and, initially, said that they needed more time. U.S. officials said that the Israelis wanted to limit who could take part in discussions of the letter, citing the need for secrecy. The Americans pushed back. Afterward, senior White House officials huddled together and complained to each other that Dermer had acted as though he owned the White House. Dermer declined to comment on the letter and told me that he does not recall any cursing. Flynn was ousted that night. Later, Trump signed the letter, becoming the fourth U.S. President to do so. • Like Obama’s advisers, Trump’s aides were baffled by the importance that Netanyahu placed on getting the letters signed so quickly. Cohen said that the issue is central for Netanyahu because the nuclear arsenal fuels his “sense of impunity, sense of Israel being so powerful, that it can dictate its own terms in the region and beyond.”

SUMMARY: While Israeli officials interpreted the letters as an effective commitment by successive American Presidents not to pressure Israel regarding its nuclear arsenal, U.S. officials told me that they viewed the letters as less categorical. “It was not a blanket ‘We’ll never ask Israel to give up its nuclear weapons.’ It was more, ‘We accepted the Israeli argument that they’re not going to disarm under current conditions in the Middle East,” a former U.S. official told me. Avner Cohen, the Middlebury Institute historian, said that U.S. Administrations have been reluctant to give up entirely on the possibility of ridding the region of nuclear weapons if Israel were to reach a comprehensive peace agreement with its neighbors, including Iran.

Ha’aretz– June 22 2018 The Name Missing From Sara Netanyahu’s Indictment

By Anshel Pfeffer, columnist at Ha’aretz

• One man’s name is missing from the 19 pages of Sara Netanyahu’s indictment for fraud and breach of trust. His absence is rendered even more conspicuous due to the fact that his title is repeatedly mentioned in the location where the crime was allegedly committed, “the Prime Minister’s residence.” But Benjamin Netanyahu is not in the indictment because the police investigators apparently have no proof of him being aware that his wife was colluding with a senior employee in his office to defraud the state of over 350 thousand shekels by ordering meals catered by gourmet chefs, which were served to him in his official residence. • That premise seems reasonable. A man as busy as the prime minister is not necessarily aware of the catering arrangements. His time is precious and he is used to sitting down to meals without paying too much attention to whoever did the cooking and paid the bill. Based on what we know of Netanyahu’s earlier life, he has always had a tendency to let others pick up the bill in restaurants – not only because that’s his character, also because he’s been surrounded by a team of flunkies taking care of things for him since his early thirties. And anyway, at the age of 68, Netanyahu belongs to a generation of men who weren’t brought up to pay much thought to domestic arrangements. • But that shouldn’t let Netanyahu totally off the hook. He was certainly aware of previous problems relating to his wife’s demands and he could have been expected to try and make sure she wouldn’t reach the point she’s at now: facing a court room with the potential of a criminal conviction for defrauding the state from the Prime Minister’s Residence. But that’s legalese. Correct – he probably can’t be charged for whatever his wife and employee were up to, ostensibly behind his back. But he does carry a type of responsibility for her indictment that goes much deeper than his legal exposure. • The story behind the details in Sara Netanyahu’s indictment are sadly familiar to anyone who’s been even remotely acquainted with Israeli politics in the last two decades. It is the same story that was behind the so-called gifts investigation in 2000, when police discovered that hundreds of gifts, given to Netanyahu during his first term as prime minister, had been removed from the official residence at Sara’s orders after Netanyahu lost the election in 1999. Seven hundred gifts were repossessed by the state, while 150 others had disappeared. Despite the gifts being too valuable for the Netanyahus to receive, a police recommendation to press charges, and the fact that they were state property, the attorney general decided to let the couple off the hook. He grudgingly accepted that there was no clear proof they had been aware of breaking the law. • The main question at Sara Netanyahu’s trial this time will be whether she knowingly committing a crime. It will be a bruising and humiliating affair when she takes the stand and is forced to explain herself in public. The attorney general was prepared to work out a plea bargain and save her from public shame, but that would have meant Sara Netanyahu accepting the blame and paying back the money. • She must face the music – there is no alternative – but it is obscene that her husband’s responsibility will not be addressed. He is as much to blame for the sense of entitlement that 7

allowed his wife to flout the law with such blatant disregard. If not more. For years there has been an atmosphere of inevitability within the Netanyahu family and the close circle of sycophants that surround Netanyahu’s leadership that it was existentially essential for the Israeli people that he would be prime minister. Netanyahu has contributed to this atmosphere in many ways, including by repeatedly describing perfectly legitimate challenges to his premiership as “coups.” • Sara Netanyahu and the couple’s son, Yair, have both said on various occasions that Netanyahu is “sacrificing himself for Israel” – were he not prime minister, he would be making billions in the private sector. When such a feeling pervades in the family, what do a few hundred thousands of shekels worth of meals matter? They don’t even begin to compensate the Netanyahus for all the riches they have passed on for public service. What does it matter that the couple accepted a million shekels in champagne, cigars and jewelry from tycoons? It is their just due. And why shouldn’t Yair and his younger brother Avner, both young men in their twenties who should be working for their living, have state-funded cars, drivers and bodyguards, despite the Shin Bet recommendation that there is no security need for any of this (as there wasn’t for any of the children of previous prime ministers who lead their lives as ordinary citizens with no special treatment). • It is Benjamin Netanyahu who has fostered the attitude that he is a leader like none before him and is therefore entitled to special privileges. It took three years until the relatively straightforward investigation into fraud at the residence culminated in an indictment. The much more complex investigations into the prime minister’s affairs will likely take far more years until he is charged. If ever. • Forget all the rumors about Bibi staying with Sara only because “she has something on him.” That was perhaps true many years ago, but nowadays, by all accounts, they are deeply committed to each other. Like every relationship, theirs is peculiar and screwed-up in its own unique way, but they very obviously love each other. Nevertheless, Bibi has not only allowed Sara to allegedly defraud the prime minister’s office budget, which he is responsible for, he has also allowed her to become the focal point of much of the public criticism that should be his by rights. Instead of doing the honorable thing, he is now throwing his beloved wife to the wolves.

SUMMARY: Sara Netanyahu and the couple’s son, Yair, have both said on various occasions that Netanyahu is “sacrificing himself for Israel” – were he not prime minister, he would be making billions in the private sector. When such a feeling pervades in the family, what do a few hundred thousands of shekels worth of meals matter? They don’t even begin to compensate the Netanyahus for all the riches they have passed on for public service. What does it matter that the couple accepted a million shekels in champagne, cigars and jewelry from tycoons? It is their just due. And why shouldn’t Yair and his younger brother Avner, both young men in their twenties who should be working for their living, have state-funded cars, drivers and bodyguards, despite the Shin Bet recommendation that there is no security need for any of this (as there wasn’t for any of the children of previous prime ministers who lead their lives as ordinary citizens with no special treatment).