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Using Pinard and Irving to Explain the Canadian 2011 Election “Orange Crush” The Perfect Storm: Using Pinard and Irving to Explain the Canadian 2011 Election “Orange Crush” by Alexander Thomson Houston Thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Arts (Politics) Acadia University Spring Graduation 2015 © by Alexander Thomson Houston, 2014 This thesis by Alexander Thomson Houston was defended successfully in an oral examination on October 10th, 2014. The examining committee for the thesis was: ________________________ Dr. David MacKinnon, Chair ________________________ Dr. Lori Turnbull, External Reader ________________________ Dr. Rachel Brickner, Internal Reader ________________________ Dr. Cynthia Alexander, Supervisor _________________________ Dr. Andrew Biro, Head/Director This thesis is accepted in its present form by the Division of Research and Graduate Studies as satisfying the thesis requirements for the degree Master of Arts (Politics). …………………………………………. ii I, Alexander Thomson Houston, grant permission to the University Librarian at Acadia University to reproduce, loan or distribute copies of my thesis in microform, paper or electronic formats on a non-profit basis. I, however, retain the copyright of this thesis. ______________________________ Author ______________________________ Supervisor ______________________________ Date iii Acknowledgements This thesis would not have been possible without the unending support and guidance of my friends and family. I owe my thanks to them for their unending love, humour, patience, and understanding. To the professors and staff at Acadia University, I would like to express my gratitude and thanks for your assistance in my education, university endeavours, and for the knowledge I have picked up along this journey. This has been a process of personal development and growth as much as it has been an academic experience. I would simply have not made it to where I am today without your efforts. I would also like to thank the examining committee for their advice and input which helped me develop this thesis further. Dr. Ian Stewart and Dr. Cynthia Alexander, you have been incredible supervisors. This thesis would not have developed to where it is today without your outstanding contributions, guidance, and patience. Through the months of getting this thesis started, to keeping it on track, editing, and guiding research, you have been with me every step of the way. Thank you. iv Table of Contents List of Tables…………………………………………………………………………Page vii Chapter One: “The 2011 Canadian Federal Election: The Upsurge of the New Democratic Party and the Orange Crush”………………………………………………………………….....Page 1 I. Theory……………………………………………………………………….Page 8 II. Methodology……………………………………………….........................Page 11 III. Structure and Chapter Outline……………………………………………..Page 13 Chapter Two: “Prairie Dust and Political Change: A Brief History of the CCF/NDP”………………………………………………….………………...……….Page 16 I. Origins of the CCF: The Birth of Social Democracy in Canada…………….Page 17 II. Tommy Douglas and the Early Years of the CCF………………………......Page 21 III. Broadbent and the NDP: Taking the Party Forward……………………….Page 25 IV. Alexa McDonough and the Renewal of the NDP……………………….....Page 27 Chapter Three: “Maurice Pinard’s Conducive Structural Theory and the 2011 Election: From the Rise of the Reform Party to the “Orange Wave”……………………………………......Page 33 I. Maurice Pinard and the “Conducive Structural Theory”……………………Page 34 II. Political Situation in Quebec in 2011: Finding Connections to Pinard…….Page 37 III. Economic Conditions of Quebec in 2011: Connecting the Dots…..………Page 40 IV. Unemployment, Alienation, and Cynicism: The Impact of the Discontent Quebec Voter…………………………………………………………………………....Page 46 V. Disparity and Household Income: The Power of Money and Voting Behavior……………………………………………………………………..…Page 49 VI. The 2011 Federal Election and Mobilization of Young Canadians……….Page 51 VII. A Gap in Pinard’s Theory: Gender and the Rise of the NDP…………….Page 56 v VII. Indigenous Votes and the Rise of the NDP…………………………….…Page 63 IX. The Influence of Media Technology: Advertising, Social Media, and the Orange Crush……………………………………………………………………..…….Page 68 Chapter Four: “John A. Irving’s Leadership Theory and the 2011 Election: The Inspirational Politics And Successes of “Smilin’/ ‘Bon’ Jack”………………………………………….…Page 77 I. Irving’s Leadership Theory and the Rise of Third Parties………………Page 78 II. Setting the Stage: Jack Layton and the NDP…………………………....Page 80 III. Layton as Leader of the NDP: How he Compared to other Leaders in the ROC………………………………………………………………….Page 83 IV. The “Layton Effect”: “Bon Jack” and the Province of Quebec……..…Page 87 V. Layton and the Leadership Debate: Does a Good Debate Translate to Votes?....................................................................................... Page 90 VI. Time on the Air: Jack Layton’s Presence on Television……………....Page 93 VII. Stepping Into Little-Known Territory: Internet Advertising, Social Media and Layton………………………………………………………..……….Page 97 VIII. Political Values, Integrity, and Public Opinion: The Public Perception of Layton………………………………………………………………….....Page 101 Chapter Five: “The Electoral Impact of Leadership and the Catalyst in Quebec: Using Both Pinard and Irving to See the Bigger Picture”……………………………………………..Page 107 Bibliography……………………………………………………….…………..…….Page 116 vi List of Tables Table 1: Election Results since Forming of NDP………………...………………...Page 31 Table 2: Federal Election Results in the Province of Quebec by Election Year….Page 38 Table 3: Quebec Sales Tax Rate by Time Period…………………………...………Page 44 Table 4: Unemployment Rates of Canada and Quebec……………………………Page 48 Table 5: Household Income in Canada and Voter Turnout……………………….Page 50 Table 6: Voter Participation by Level of Education………………………………..Page 54 Table 7: Voting Trends in Canada 2011 (female)…………………………………..Page 62 Table 8: 2011 Election Indigenous Voting…………………………………………..Page 65 Table 9: Influence on Voter/Non-voter Decisions………………………….……….Page 69 Table 10: Sources of Information on the 2011 Election……………...…………….Page 72 Table 11: Perception of Political Leaders in ROC During 2008 and 2011 Election ………………………...………………………………………………..……………...Page 84 Table 12: Perception of Political Leaders in Quebec during 2008 and 2011 Election………………………………………………………………………………..Page 88 Table 13: Voter Choice in the 2011 Federal Election……………………....………Page 91 vii Abstract This thesis compares and contrasts the conducive structural theory of Maurice Pinard and the leadership theory of John Allan Irving to determine what conditions were present and contributed to the New Democratic Party’s (NDP) success in the 2011 Canadian federal election. In this thesis I make the argument that the conducive structural theory of Maurice Pinard and the leadership theory of John Allan Irving, when used together, provide an effective analytical lens to identify the condition(s) necessary for the success of the NDP in the 2011 election that is otherwise not possible when either theory is used in isolation. viii Chapter One The 2011 Canadian Federal Election: The Upsurge of the New Democratic Party and the Orange Crush “My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we’ll change the world.”1 - Jack Layton (1950 – 2011), leader of the federal NDP in his last letter to Canadians “Before the last federal election, no seasoned political observer would have dared to bet on a reversal of fortunes for the New Democratic Party in Quebec.”2 -Vincent Geloso, C2C Journal writer, December2011 The 2011 federal election in Canada was a major shock to the political party system of Canada, shaking the Liberal Party and Bloc Quebecois at their very core and reducing them to the power of a third party. A third party is “a political party which does not have the electoral strength to form government or Official Opposition.”3 Historically, there have been numerous third parties in Canada such as the Green Party, the New Democratic Party (NDP) prior to 2011, the Marijuana party, and the Marxist-Leninist Party. What made the 2011 election remarkable is that it marked a time when a third party, the NDP, was able to gather more seats in the House of Commons than one of the “mainstream” political parties.4 1 Jack Layton, in CBC. “Jack Layton's Last Letter to Canadians,” August 22, 2011, accessed June 24th, 2014, http://www.cbc.ca/ 2 Vincent Geloso. “The Rise of the NDP or the Confusing Heritage of the Quiet Revolution,” C2C Journal, December 12, 2011, accessed June 25th, 2014. http://c2cjournal.ca/ 3 Maria Mavrikkou. “The NDP and the Third Party Curse in Canada” (Master’s thesis, University of Waterloo, 2009). 2. 4 Jon H. Pammett and Christopher Dornan. The Canadian General Election of 2000 (Toronto: The Dundurn Group, 2001). 14. 1 The focus of this thesis is to assess how the social, political, and economic conditions in Quebec along with political leadership contributed to the NDP’s recent political victory in the 2011 election. In this analysis, I will address the role of leadership, with a focus on what role Jack Layton, former leader of the federal NDP, played in the 2011 election success. Furthermore, I will analyze voting patterns and trends in Quebec and the rest of Canada (ROC) and identify the differences. I will also examine what major issues the NDP were able to handle well, or that the Liberals and Conservatives were unable or unwilling to deal with that allowed the former “third
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