Q4 2020 Point of View Downtown Office Market
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Q4 2020 Point of View Downtown Office Market An Insight into the Calgary Office Market Q4 2020 Point of View Table of Contents 1. Market Overview 2. Market Forecast 3. Additional Graphs and Tables 4. Appendices A: Class AA Office Vacancy B: Class A Office Vacancy C: Class B Office Vacancy D: Class C Office Vacancy E: Beltline Office Vacancy F: Kensington Office Vacancy G: Inglewood Office Vacancy H: Mission Office Vacancy I: Class AA Parking & Operating Costs J: Class A Parking & Operating Costs K: Class B Parking & Operating Costs L: Class C Parking & Operating Costs M: Beltline Parking & Operating Costs Western Canadian Place Cenovus completes acquisition of Husky Energy Cenovus has purchased Husky Energy creating the third largest Canadian oil and natural gas company based on total production. Husky has already made their space in Western Canadian Place - South Tower available for sublease and they occupy another 650,000 sf in the North tower. Q4 2020 Point of View Market Overview Downtown Office Market Well that was a year … although we are all all have had, and will likely continue to have, collectively happy to have 2020 in the rear- a dramatic impact on our industry through view mirror, the haze continues to linger. 2021. Downtown Supply 2020 started off on a positive note, then in One trend that did not start in 2020, but mid-March our world was sent into a COVID was certainly exemplified is the increasing 43,896,163 sf tailspin. The near-term impact was negative polarization of Calgary’s downtown market. oil prices, adoption of working from home, While overall vacancy sits at 28.53%, the mandated lock downs, and general fear of range of vacancy in each segment ranges the unknown. Big and small businesses alike from 17.99% (Class AA) to 43.16% (Class B), were forced to deal with the “new reality” and with Class A currently at 31.78% and Class while some reacted quickly, others took a wait C at 30.18%. The vacancy rate by class is and see approach. even more divergent when we look at just Downtown Vacancy head lease vacancy which is 7.23% (Class With the year now in the books from a real AA), 26.54% (Class A), 41.12% (Class B) estate perspective it, not surprisingly, dug 28.53% and 28.06% (Class C). The Class AA and A Calgary’s hole of vacancy issues even deeper. markets combine for more than 75% of all the Although there was positive absorption of downtown inventory and are the engines that 238,636 square feet in Q1, the following three drive the Calgary real estate scene. Digging quarters were all negative, with Q4 being into the historical stats below is the average the largest increase in supply to the tune of annual absorption for the Class A and AA 608,318 square feet (this does not include markets respectively over the last 5 and 10 any space coming to market from the Husky/ years: Q4 2020 Downtown Cenovus transaction). Post COVID (Q2 – Q4) Absorption average quarterly absorption was -446,475 Class AA Class A square feet. Absorption Absorption -608,318 sf From a very high level the annual absorption 5 years 176,075 sf -392,353 sf of negative 1,082,414 for 2020 was an 10 years 327,071 sf -405,271 sf increase to overall vacancy of roughly 2.5%. With these two markets going through Some within the real estate industry doubt the remarkable bifurcation over the last decade increasing vacancy really makes a material it is very apparent tenants are drawn to difference (i.e. does an increase from 26% to premium product, both in good times and 28.5% make a difference) – but with all due bad. This trend is being amplified due to respect we beg to differ. almost all of the energy companies acquiring Every event we witnessed in 2020, whether it being housed in AA product, and for the be the work from home movement, corporate majority of the companies being acquired right sizing, mergers and acquisitions or US being in the A product. As a result, we fully and international companies leaving Calgary expect this trend to continue into 2021. Q4 2020 Point of View Market Forecast Downtown Office Market On the heels of some blockbuster acquisitions (of which in vacancy until 2015, at which time they began to move the real estate effect has yet to be fully realized) there in opposite directions (see Graph 1 below). is little doubt the first two quarters of 2021 will bring Should history, and our assumptions hold true, by with them negative absorption. It is likely Q1 will be the end of 2023 the AA market could be in the 13% significantly negative as we see the fall out of corporate vacancy zone (note an equilibrium real estate market transactions, most notably Cenovus & Husky. It is also is 10%), while the A market could soar to almost 40%. likely that this event spreads the AA and A vacancy Although it is very hard to predict any market, and rates further as Cenovus’s HQ is in a class AA building especially Calgary given its volatile nature, it is likely the and Husky is in class A building. If Cenovus, as many AA landlords are past bottom. However, that does not suspect, consolidates the company into their existing mean they will be able start ratcheting up rental rates buildings the impact of the space Husky has leased in as the general market drag, and pessimistic business the West End (an additional 650,000 square feet on top environment is something that they will have to deal with of their current sublease listing of 250,000 square feet) on every transaction in the near to mid term. coming to market will be enormous for that area of the downtown core. Conversely, landlords of A class and lower buildings are in a much different situation. Some have seen this The below chart shows where we expect these two coming and have embarked on big capital upgrades to segments of the market to trend over the next two their buildings (common areas, show suites, fitness and years, which is a continuance of what we have been conference areas, tenant lounges, HVAC and lighting experiencing for many years. As you can see from the systems, etc.). Although landlords who have spent this below graph, the A and AA sectors mirrored each other money still carry some significant vacancy, they have also Downtown Vacancy Projections All Classes, Forecasted to 2023 Graph 1: Forecasted Class AA/A Vacancy to 2023 45.00% 40.00% 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% Vacancy (%) 0.00% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD Forecast Forecast Forecast 2020 2021 2022 2023 Class AA Historical Vacancy (%) Class AA Forecasted Vacancy (%) Class A Historical Vacancy % Class A Forecasted Vacancy (%) Equinor closes their offices located in Jamieson Place to focus on off-shore operations in the East Coast Equuinor is the latest oil and gas company to leave Calgary. This should come as no surprise however as they divested their Western Canadian assets in 2017. Who will be next to leave the city? Jamieson Place capitalized on securing some larger tenancies from the materially impact the market, and even if significant jobs technology universe, B class tenants looking to upgrade are generated most companies have sufficient vacancy and groups moving back downtown from the suburbs. within their current footprints to accommodate same. We expect large institutional owners, who are in Calgary The technology sector is also one of the most long term, to continue to upgrade their product to retain promising green shoots for Calgary. A few of the largest and attract select material tenancies in their portfolio and transactions in the downtown core in 2020 were in the general market. completed by tech companies. That is new for our That said, there are those landlords that will not embark market and hopefully something that continues although on these capital upgrade programs, whether it be by the current drag on growth in that industry is the lack choice or simply lack of capital. They are the groups of a qualified labour pool. The tech industry has huge who will continue to have to deal with this dire market shoes to fill and a long way to go if it is going to start to and discount their transaction economics as their only materially offset some of the vacancy that we see arising way to compete. out of M&A activity in the energy sector. While 2020, and the outlook for 2021 is relatively The first two or three quarters of 2021 are likely to grim, there are some silver linings starting to develop be much of the same in the real estate market – i.e. that we would be remiss not to mention. Commodity increasing vacancy by way of downsizing tenants, prices are making a surprising comeback and there are acquisitions and companies leaving Calgary. Thereafter rumblings of future supply shortages. That said, in a we anticipate more widespread optimism and a return more productive and profitable business environment of a productive business climate and profitability. It goes many energy companies are going to “harvest” cashflow, without saying the overall real estate market in Calgary pay down debt and return cash to shareholders. It does will take many years to recover, but until we hit bottom, not necessarily mean job creation at the level required to we cannot start the climb.