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EQUITY RESEARCH 2021 Equity Outlook

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EQUITY RESEARCH 2021 Equity Outlook EQUITY RESEARCH CIBC Capital Markets December 8, 2020 Industry Update 2021 Equity Outlook Sector: CIBC Capital Markets Research Equities Are The Only Place To Be Our Conclusion Our 2021 Equity Outlook can be succinctly summarized like this – equities are expensive but, frankly, we see no alternative. The novel coronavirus has brought sub-1% long-term yields to North America, and while long rates are expected to rise next year, we doubt meaningfully north of 1%. Extremely low interest rates should continue to increase the attractiveness of equities. In this CIBC Equity Research equity outlook piece, a 50-page collaborative report across all major 11 GICS, we focus on the key themes within each sector. We believe this year’s outlook piece is particularly important given the impact of the novel coronavirus and what a return to “normal” looks like across each sector. Key Points The market’s optimism for 2021 seems to only increase day by day, but we note uncertainties remain next year. We are in a second wave that looks likely to get worse rather than better, and face the most challenging vaccine rollout in modern history. Economically, it is anyone’s guess how deeply entrenched recently acquired consumer and business habits are. In that light, we believe investors are best served by focusing on companies that can generate respectable returns even through a bumpy recovery. Dividends, in this low rate environment, look even more attractive than normal. In our view, this will suit investors irrespective of how long it takes to get back to “normal.” Our sector recommendations reflect this. We are overweight Financials, Materials and Utilities. We believe Canadian Banks have demonstrated an ability to earn through this crisis, and specifically note Financials actually should benefit from margin expansion as rates rise. Within Materials, we remain bullish on gold given the expectation of either negative or near-zero real interest rates. As well, China appears to be rebounding best and this supports the outlook for base metals. On Utilities, the high-yielding, stable nature of the business is coupled with a strong outlook for the Renewables names as ESG continues to increase in significance across equities. Most of our readers will likely have had the good fortune of seeing equities rebound to pre-pandemic levels. Many others in this world were less fortunate and remain economically challenged. This, of course, says nothing of the human cost the novel coronavirus has waged on the world this year. While social distancing may make for a unique holiday season, we believe it is important to be thankful for all that we have in our lives amongst family and loved ones. All figures in Canadian dollars unless otherwise stated. For required regulatory disclosures please refer to "Important Disclosures" beginning on page 46. 2021 Equity Outlook - December 8, 2020 Table of Contents 2021 Equity Outlook..................................................................................................................1 2020 At A Glance ......................................................................................................................3 Are Equities Expensive? Yes, But We See No Alternative .......................................................4 Stable Business Models Please, And We Want Dividends.......................................................4 ESG Continues To March On....................................................................................................5 S&P/TSX Communication Services – Marketweight.................................................................7 S&P/TSX Consumer Discretionary – Marketweight ................................................................11 S&P/TSX Consumer Staples – Marketweight .........................................................................12 S&P/TSX Energy – Underweight.............................................................................................17 S&P/TSX Financials – Overweight..........................................................................................21 S&P/TSX Health Care – Underweight.....................................................................................24 S&P/TSX Industrials – Marketweight ......................................................................................28 S&P/TSX Information Technology – Marketweight .................................................................32 S&P/TSX Materials – Overweight ...........................................................................................36 S&P/TSX Real Estate – Underweight .....................................................................................39 S&P/TSX Utilities – Overweight ..............................................................................................43 2 2021 Equity Outlook - December 8, 2020 2020 At A Glance Ian de Verteuil What a year! It is near impossible to recap 2020 in a “glance” when equity investors (and the Head of Portfolio and world’s population itself) have experienced such a roller coaster ride. In U.S. dollar terms, Quantitative Strategy nearly all major developed equity indices are up on the year (save the FTSE 100), after +1 416-594-7462 having declined between 30% to 35% during the worst of the sell-off. Asian equities have [email protected] performed the best, with the KOSPI 200 and the Nikkei 225 leading the way, up 29% and 20%, respectively, as seen in Exhibit 1. Better handling of the virus and China’s rapid rebound are likely owed the credit for this. Canadian equities have been laggards amongst the group, and meaningfully underperformed their U.S. peers this year – as has been the case the last four years. Exhibit 1: Equity Performance Of Major Developed Economies (G7 + Korea & Australia), Ranked By 2020 (USD) Total Return Performance 2019 Total Return 2020 YTD Total Return Country Index Local Terms USD Terms Local Terms USD Terms Korea KOSPI 200 14.6% 10.5% 23.0% 29.1% Japan Nikkei 225 20.7% 22.4% 15.4% 20.2% USA S&P 500 31.5% 31.5% 15.5% 15.5% Germany DAX 25.5% 23.0% 0.5% 8.4% Australia S&P/ASX 200 25.0% 24.7% 2.2% 7.6% Canada S&P/TSX Comp. 22.8% 29.0% 4.9% 5.2% Italy FTSE MIB 33.8% 31.1% -4.5% 3.0% France CAC 40 30.5% 27.9% -4.5% 2.8% UK FTSE 100 17.2% 22.0% -11.6% -11.0% Source: Bloomberg and CIBC World Markets Inc. The economic impact has clearly benefitted the work-at-home names in the U.S., namely within Technology, Consumer Discretionary (Amazon) and Communication Services. In Canada, Shopify and the gold names have been the best performers across the S&P/TSX Composite. The extremely low interest rate environment has failed to uplift the Canadian rate-sensitive sectors, except for Utilities. Canadian Energy has been the worst performer across the S&P/TSX Composite, for the fourth time in the last six years. Returns for all 11 GICS across both the S&P 500 and the S&P/TSX in 2020 YTD are shown in Exhibit 2. Exhibit 2: 2020 YTD Index/Sector Performance, S&P/TSX Composite And S&P 500 (Local Currency) 100% 76% 75% Total Return From Dec 31 , 2019 - Dec 2, 2020 50% 38% 30% 24% 16% 21% 17% 25% 12% 12% 13% 11% 6% 9% 10% 5% 1% 1% 0% -5% -7% -3% -3% -25% -16% -26% -34% -50% TSX / SPX COND CONS FINL ENRS MATR INFT UTIL INDU HLTH RLST TELS S&P/TSX S&P 500 Note: Exhibit priced as of December 2, 2020 close. Source: Bloomberg and CIBC World Markets Inc. 3 2021 Equity Outlook - December 8, 2020 Are Equities Expensive? Yes, But We See No Alternative While equities have recovered, interest rates remain well below their pre-pandemic levels – and likely will for some time. The Federal Reserve has already taken a lower-for-longer approach to managing the front end of the yield curve, and has once again shown to be a committed buyer during this era of QE 4. Our house call is for higher interest rates in 2021 as the economy rebounds, but only to levels slightly above the 1% threshold. An extended period of extremely low interest rates in 2021 bodes well for equities. While forward P/Es for the S&P 500 are at the highest level they have been in the last 30 years (see Exhibit 3, left chart), equities are the cheapest they have been on a relative yield basis (Exhibit 3, right chart). On average, the forward earnings yield (pre-Financial Crisis) was about 120% of the U.S. 10yr Treasury yield but today the level is about 550%. This implies that equities are very attractively priced, even while P/E ratios are at near all-time highs. Exhibit 3: S&P 500 Forward P/E (Left) And Forward Earnings Yield As A Percent Of U.S. 10yr Yield (Right) S&P 500 Fwd P/E Avg Fwd P/E Fwd Earnings Yield Yield as % of 10yr 30 30 12 1200% 25 25 9 900% 20 20 6 600% 15 15 3 300% 10 10 0 0% 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 S&P 500 Fwd P/E Avg Fwd P/E Earnings Yield % of US 10yr Source: Bloomberg and CIBC World Markets Inc. Of course, this is still dependent on the timing and viability of a vaccine rollout but consensus expectations are for a global economic rebound in 2021. However, even with that said, we note that in the most recent Q3 earnings season, S&P 500 earnings were only down 10% Y/Y, a remarkable achievement that highlights the earnings resilience for equities. Against this backdrop, we believe that equities will be a superior asset class in 2021 – though overall returns could be quite modest. Stable Business Models Please, And We Want Dividends Assuming the progress on vaccines continues, we expect a much stronger economy in 2021. Having said this, there is still a variety of unknowns that will dog investors (and us all) as we move forward. As we sit today, there is a good chance that a reasonable proportion of the developed world has some form of protection from the virus by summer 2021. Between here and there, however, we have to deal with winter conditions in the northern hemisphere, rising case counts and a population that is understandably frustrated with lockdowns. 4 2021 Equity Outlook - December 8, 2020 Furthermore, it is unknown how deeply entrenched recently acquired consumer and business habits really are. Granted, we have all embraced the convenience of home delivery and many businesses seem to have learnt that work-from-home, for the most part, works.
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