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Evidence from Zimbabwe's ZANU-PF

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Evidence from Zimbabwe's ZANU-PF Georgia State University ScholarWorks @ Georgia State University Political Science Dissertations Department of Political Science 8-11-2015 The Impact of Voter Exit on Party Survival: Evidence from Zimbabwe's ZANU-PF Chipo Dendere Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarworks.gsu.edu/political_science_diss Recommended Citation Dendere, Chipo, "The Impact of Voter Exit on Party Survival: Evidence from Zimbabwe's ZANU-PF." Thesis, Georgia State University, 2015. https://scholarworks.gsu.edu/political_science_diss/38 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Department of Political Science at ScholarWorks @ Georgia State University. It has been accepted for inclusion in Political Science Dissertations by an authorized administrator of ScholarWorks @ Georgia State University. For more information, please contact [email protected]. THE IMPACT OF VOTER EXIT ON PARTY SURVIVAL EVIDENCE FROM ZIMBABWE’S ZANU-PF by CHIPO DENDERE Under the Direction of Daniel Young, PhD ABSTRACT This dissertation considers the impact of voter exit on the survival of incumbent regimes. I argue that voters exit the political process as a result of emigration or political violence. Using the example of Zimbabwe, I argue that ZANU-PF benefited from the exit of nearly four million Zimbabweans who emigrated outside the country in response to declining economic conditions and who exited the political system as a result of violence. INDEX WORDS: Incumbent, Zimbabwe, Authoritarian, Mugabe, Migration, Violence THE IMPACT OF VOTER EXIT ON PARTY SURVIVAL EVIDENCE FROM ZIMBABWE’S ZANU-PF by CHIPO DENDERE A Dissertation Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the College of Arts and Sciences Georgia State University 2015 Copyright by Chipo Dendere 2015 THE IMPACT OF VOTER EXIT ON PARTY SURVIVAL EVIDENCE FROM ZIMBABWE’S ZANU-PF by CHIPO DENDERE Committee Chair: Daniel Young Committee: Carrie Manning Ryan Carlin Electronic Version Approved: Office of Graduate Studies College of Arts and Sciences Georgia State University August 2015 iv DEDICATION I dedicate this dissertation to my mother, thank you mama. v vi ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to thank the more than one hundred women and men who shared their life stories with me. The human cost of migration and politics of transitioning countries is heart breaking, as an immigrant I recognize the difficulty of opening up about one’s life. Thank you for trusting me with your life stories. I am also eternally grateful to my advisor Dr. Daniel Young. As an advisor and friend he spent many hours listening to my broad ideas, challenging me, and encouraging me. Without his support that went above the call of duty there would be no dissertation. My mentor Elisabet Rutstrom provided encouragement and financial support that made this project possible. I am also grateful for my sisters and friends for their support. And finally, I am thankful for my husband and best friend for his unyielding support and love. v TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ........................................................................................... VI LIST OF TABLES .......................................................................................................... IX LIST OF FIGURES ......................................................................................................... X 1 INTRODUCTION..................................................................................................... 11 1.1. Background ........................................................................................................... 13 1.2 Post independence political parties ...................................................................... 21 1.3 The Constitutional Referendum .......................................................................... 23 1.4 The 2000 Parliamentary Elections ....................................................................... 27 1.5 The Elections 2002-2008 ....................................................................................... 29 2 AN UNCONSIDERED THEORY OF EXIT AND PARTY SURVIVAL .............. 32 2.1 Explanations in the literature on party survival ................................................ 34 2.1.1 Electoral Fraud................................................................................................ 34 1.1.1.1 The Voters Roll: Registration challenges, “ghost voters,” and absent voters .. 36 1.1.1.2 Population considerations and access to registration and voting centers ........ 42 1.1.1.3 Ghost Voters and Absent Voters ........................................................................ 48 2.1.2 Historical legacies............................................................................................ 50 2.1.3 Performance theory ......................................................................................... 53 2.1.4 Vote buying, clientelism, neopatromonialism, and patronage in African elections ................................................................................................................................. 58 2.1.5 Elite unity and superior organization skills ................................................... 69 2.2 My theory of party survival .................................................................................. 76 2.2.1 Key theoretical concepts .................................................................................. 78 1.1.1.4 Exit lowers support for the opposition ............................................................... 80 vi 3 EMIGRATION AND PARTY SURVIVAL ........................................................... 85 3.1 Migration patterns in Zimbabwe ...................................................................... 85 3.2 Mapping out respondents in the United Kingdom, South Africa and United States .............................................................................................................................. 88 3.2.1.1 The United Kingdom .......................................................................................... 90 3.2.1.2 The Republic of South Africa ............................................................................ 92 3.2.1.3 The United States ................................................................................................ 93 3.2.1.4 Creating the interview questions and structure, identifying the target group and interviewees .................................................................................................. 95 3.2.1.4.1 Interview Guides .......................................................................................... 96 3.2.1.4.2 Language, setting, and duration .................................................................. 96 3.3 The profile of a Zimbabwean migrant ............................................................. 97 3.3.1.1 Gender ................................................................................................................. 98 3.3.1.2 Age ....................................................................................................................... 98 3.3.1.3 Tribe .................................................................................................................... 99 3.3.1.4 Hometown of Respondents ................................................................................. 99 3.3.1.5 Education .......................................................................................................... 100 3.4 Declining Economy & Middle Class Exit: The case of nurses ..................... 102 3.4.1.1 Why are they leaving? ...................................................................................... 106 3.5 Middle Class frustration increased opposition support ................................ 110 3.6 Linking exit to politics ...................................................................................... 112 3.6.1.1 Opposition to ZANU-PF ................................................................................... 112 3.6.1.2 Migration reduces turnout for the opposition ................................................. 116 3.6.1.3 Voter Exit Prevents Participation, which benefits ZANU-PF ........................ 117 3.6.1.4 Barriers to Diaspora Vote: ............................................................................... 118 vii 3.6.1.5 Remittances strengthened ZANU-PF hold to power ....................................... 123 3.7 Concluding thoughts ........................................................................................ 127 4 THE USE OF VIOLENCE AS A SURVIVAL STRATEGY ............................. 128 4.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................... 128 4.2 A new theory of political violence ................................................................... 133 4.3 ZANU-PF Historical legacies of violence pre and post-independence ........ 135 4.4 Implications for party survival ....................................................................... 141 4.4.1.1 The relationship between Urbanites and ZANU-PF ....................................... 142 4.4.1.2 The 2000 Citizenship Act and Politics of Identity and forced voter exit ........ 144 4.4.2 Post-2000 Land Reform and forced voter exit ........................................... 151 4.4.2.1 Operation Murambatsvina: Violent gerrymandering ..................................... 158 4.4.2.2 Motivation
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