COUNTY 2019 SHORT RAINS FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY ASSESSMENT REPORT

A Joint Report by the Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG) and Steering Group1

February, 2020

1 Evelyn Wangari Ng’ang’a (National Drought Management Authority), Safari Ziro (State Department of Agriculture), Mwanamisi Nkonewa Hamisi (State Department of Livestock), Hassan Nyawa (State Department of Water), Josiah Kilei Mwawana (Ministry of Education), Margaret Kimeu (Ministry of Health)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Food security assessments are conducted bi-annually after the two main rainfall seasons: long rains season (March-April-May) and short rains season (October-November-December). Representatives from the departments of health, water, livestock, education and agriculture under the coordination of the National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) conducted the 2019 short rains assessment. The main objective was to conduct an evidence-based, objective and transparent analysis of the food security situation following the short rains season of 2019. The analysis also took into account the cumulative effects of the three previous seasons that aided the formulation of food and non-food interventions for the next six months. The short rains season performance was impressive with well over 90 percent of the county receiving over 200 percent of normal rainfall. The late cessation of the rains, that was experienced till January 2020, significantly favored both crop and livestock production. As a result, maize production was near-normal at 82 percent of 151,260 90-kg bags while cowpea and green gram production was 166 and 177 percent of normal (18,650 and 19,356 90-kg bags). However, there were instances of leaching in Ramisi Ward in Sub-county, and Vanga and Kikoneni Wards in Sub-county. The county held 8.6 percent higher than normal stocks of maize. Livestock body condition was good for all species in both the mixed farming and livestock farming livelihood zones, forage was available and is likely to last at least four months up to June. Milk production and milk consumption increased compared with a similar time normally. Markets were well provisioned with the county’s staples due to the relatively good harvests and were functioning normally. Maize prices were normal at Kshs 40 compared to the LTA of Kshs 39. Goat prices were 18 percent above-normal at Kshs 3,533 in comparison with LTA of Kshs 2,993. The terms of trade (ToT) was recorded at 88 which was 15 percent higher than the LTA of 77. The above-average ToT implied improved household purchasing power in favour of livestock farmers. The proportion of households with poor, borderline and acceptable food consumption was 11, 33 and 56 percent respectively in February 2020 in comparison with 6, 26 and 68 percent at a similar time last year. The implication was that the proportion of households with poor food consumption had increased while that with acceptable consumption had decreased. The reduced coping strategy index (rCSI) also increased by a 32 percent margin from 10.24 in February 2019 to 13.5 during the assessment. In addition, approximately 26.4 and 33.1 percent had engaged stressed and crisis livelihood coping strategies while the remaining 40.4 percent had not engaged any. The proportion of children at risk of malnutrition averaged two percent against a five-year average of 6.9 percent. The decrease in comparison with normal times implied an improved nutritional status for this age cohort, possibly occasioned by improved food availability at household level. The county is classified in stressed phase (IPC Phase 2).

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TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...... i 1.0 INTRODUCTION ...... 1 1.1 County background ...... 1 1.2 Methodology and approach ...... 1 2.0 DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IN THE COUNTY ...... 1 2.1 Rainfall Performance ...... 1 2.2 Shocks and hazards ...... 2 3.0 IMPACTS OF DRIVERS ON FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY ...... 2 3.1 Availability ...... 2 3.1.1. Crop production ...... 2 3.1.2 Livestock production ...... 4 3.2 Access ...... 7 3.2.1 Markets ...... 7 3.2.2 Terms of trade (TOT) ...... 8 3.2.3 Income sources ...... 9 3.2.4 Water access and availability ...... 9 3.2.5 Food consumption ...... 10 3.2.6 Coping strategy ...... 10 3.3 Utilization ...... 11 3.3.1 Morbidity trends ...... 11 3.3.2 Immunization and Vitamin A supplementation ...... 11 3.3.3 Nutritional status and dietary diversity...... 12 3.3.4 Sanitation and hygiene ...... 12 3.4 Trends of key food security indicators...... 13 4.0 CROSS-CUTTING ISSUES...... 14 4.1 Education...... 14 5.0 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS ...... 15 5.1 Assumptions ...... 15 5.2 Food security outcomes for March, April and May 2020 ...... 15 5.3 Food security outcomes for June, July and August 2020 ...... 16 6.0 CONCLUSION AND INTERVENTIONS ...... 16 6.1 Conclusion ...... 16 6.1.1 Phase classification...... 16 6.1.2 Summary of findings ...... 16 6.1.3 Sub-county ranking ...... 17 6.2 On-going Interventions ...... 17 6.2.1 Food interventions ...... 17 6.2.2 Non-food interventions ...... 17 6.3 Recommended Interventions ...... 19 6.3.1 Food interventions ...... 19 6.3.2 Non-food interventions ...... 19

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1.0 INTRODUCTION

1.1 County background Kwale County is located along the Kenyan coast and comprises five gazetted sub- counties, namely: Samburu, Msambweni, Matuga, Kinango and Lunga Lunga. It spans an area of 8,960 km2 with a population of 866,820 persons (2019 Kenya Population and Housing Census). The county borders County to the north-east, the Republic of to the south, Kilifi County to the north, the Indian Ocean to the east and Taita Taveta County to the west. It comprises four livelihood Figure 1: Proportion of population by LZs zones (Figure 1). However, the assessment scope was delimited to the two main livelihood zones where the majority of the population resided (Mixed farming and Livestock farming). In addition, due to inadequate staffing the data from Samburu Sub-county was included in the larger Kinango Sub-county from which it was hived.

1.2 Methodology and approach The 2019 SRA assessment was conducted from 10th to 21st February, 2020 in all the 23 Arid and Semi-arid (ASAL) . In Kwale County, the assessment took place from 10th to 19th February, 2020. The assessment done by a multi-agency and a multi-sectoral team that consisted of representatives from the County Steering Group (CSG). The county team was constituted by technical officers from the departments of Agriculture, Livestock, Water, Health & Nutrition and Education. The process began with the initial CSG briefing on the aims and objectives of the assessment on 12th February 2020 followed by technical CSG’s briefs for their respective sectors. Secondary data was provided by the National Drought Management Authority (NDMA). A report-writing session was later conducted to ensure coherence and finally a debriefing session to the County Steering Group was conducted on 19th February 2020.

2.0 DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IN THE COUNTY

2.1 Rainfall Performance The onset of the short rains season was early in the first dekad of October compared with the second dekad normally. Estimates from satellite imagery show that the county received significantly above-average rainfall amounts. Most parts of the county received 200-350 percent of normal rainfall except for the northern part of the county and the coastline which received approximately 141- 200 percent and 91-125 percent of normal rainfall respectively (Figure 2). The temporal distribution was remarkably good with all dekads having recorded above-average

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Figure 2: Rainfall performance in Kwale County rainfall with the exception of the third dekad of November. The distribution was also even as most parts of the two livelihood zones received rainfall. The rains extended well into January 2020 and beyond with off-season showers still being experienced at the time of the assessment.

2.2 Shocks and hazards The county experienced flooding due to the above-average rainfall received this season. Lunga Lunga Sub-county was the most affected where crops were destroyed while leaching and water-logging lowered crop production. The areas most affected included Kiwegu, Sega, Shimoni, Perani and Jego in Lunga Lunga Sub-county and Ramisi in Msambweni Sub- county. A fall army-worm infestation was also experienced throughout the county although its impact was minimal.

3.0 IMPACTS OF DRIVERS ON FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY 3.1 Availability In Kwale County, food availability is driven by crop and livestock production which are practiced in the two major livelihood zones. In livestock production, forage, milk and water availability are discussed alongside livestock body condition and ownership. In crop production, irrigated and rain-fed systems of production will be considered as well as the availability of cereal stocks at two levels: household and market.

3.1.1. Crop production Introduction The main food crops grown this season included maize, cowpeas and green grams under rain- fed crop production while tomatoes, okra and capsicum were grown under irrigated agriculture. The current season is the most reliable one for early maturing short-season crops such as cowpeas and green grams but not the main one for maize. The short rains season contributes to 60 percent of the annual production of cowpeas and green grams but only 30% for maize. Table 1 illustrates the contribution of crop production to both cash and food in the county disaggregated by livelihood zone. Table 1: Contribution of crop production to cash/income and food at livelihood zone level Livelihood Crop Contribution (%) Cash Food Livestock farming Cassava 10 20 Cow peas 14 15 Green grams 15 10 Mixed farming Maize 9 50 Cassava 10 12 Green grams 15 15 a. Rain-fed crop production The area under maize, cowpea and green gram production was 116, 129 and 132 percent of normal in comparison with their respective LTAs (Table 2). The area under maize increased because households were influenced by the good rainfall performance and increased the area ploughed as a result, while that of cowpeas and green grams increased because the county government provided certified seeds as an incentive to plant. Farmers also had additional seeds for all three crops that had been provided by the Kenya Cereal Enhancement Program – Climate Resilience Agricultural Livelihoods program (KCEP-CRAL) during the long rains season but were not planted due to late distribution.

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Maize production declined by 18 percent in comparison with 151,260 90-kg bags recorded in the LTA (Table 2). The slight deviation from the normal was occasioned by leaching of soil nutrients from water-logged soils due to above-average rains particularly in Vanga and Kikoneni Wards in Lunga Lunga Sub-county and Ramisi Ward in Msambweni Sub-county whose topography makes the area prone to flooding. Fall army worm infestation also affected maize production throughout the county although the extent of damage had substantially reduced in comparison with previous seasons due to heightened sensitization on its management. Production of cowpeas and green grams increased by 66 and 77 percent respectively when compared with their respective LTAs (Table 2). The increased hectarage, bolstered by above- average rainfall performance and an extended season that ran well in to January, favoured the production of these two crops. Table 2: Rain-fed crop production Crop Area Long Term 2019 short Long Term Average planted Average (LTA) rains season production during during 2019 area planted production the short rains short rains during the short (90 kg bags) season season rains season Actual (90 kg bags) (Ha) (Ha) 1. Maize 19,545 16,843 123,615 151,260 2. Cowpeas 3,510 2,725 30,891 18,650 3. Green grams 3,477 2,642 34,285 19,356 b. Irrigated Nyalani Irrigation Scheme in Puma Ward, Kinango Sub-county is the major irrigation scheme in the county in addition to twenty micro-irrigation sites. The main crops grown this season include tomatoes, okra and capsicum. The area under tomatoes, okra and capsicum increased marginally by six, four and ten percent respectively above the LTAs (Table 3). The production of tomatoes increased by three percent above its LTA. On the other hand, production of okra and capsicum decreased by 15 and 14 percent respectively compared with respectively in their respective LTAs (Table 3).

Table 3: Irrigated crop production Crop Area Long Term 2019 short Long Term Average planted Average rains season production during during 2019 area planted production the short rains short rains during the short (metric tonnes) season season rains season Actual (metric tonnes) (acres) (acre) 1. Tomatoes 18 17 17500 17000 2. Okra 26 25 550 650 3. Capsicum 23 21 8000 9300

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Cereal stocks Maize, sorghum and rice are the main cereal stocks in the county. Table 4: Cereal stocks Cereals stocks held Maize Rice Sorghum by Quantities of LTA Quantities LTA Quantities of LTA maize held of rice held sorghum held (90-kg bags) (90-kg bags) (90-kg bags) House holds 116,700 110,874 1,500 N/A 5 N/A Traders 120,900 107,864 37,000 N/A 0 N/A - - - - - Millers Total 237,600 218,738 38,500 N/A 5 N/A

Households and traders held slightly above-average stocks of maize by five and 12 percent respectively in comparison with their LTAs of 110,874 and 107,864 90-kg bags respectively (Table 4). The households and farmers held above-normal stocks due to the above-average seasonal performance of the crop that increased its availability at both levels. However, households are likely to exhaust their stocks in one and a half months (by mid-April) which is normal after which they will depend on stores/markets. Households and farmers also held some carry-over rice stocks from the previous season when it is normally planted while the stocks of sorghum were negligible.

3.1.2 Livestock production Introduction

The main livestock kept in the county include cattle, goats, sheep and poultry. Bee keeping is also an upcoming enterprise with approximately 2,356 households practicing apiculture. An estimated 18 and 20 percent of cash income in Mixed farming and Livestock farming livelihood zones respectively is derived from livestock production in the county. The current season under review is significant for livestock production due to its considerable contribution to forage rejuvenation and replenishment of water sources for livestock consumption. With the rains having been significantly above-average in addition to the extended season, optimal rejuvenation of pasture and browse and recharge of water sources was realized.

Pasture Pasture condition was good in both the Mixed farming and Livestock farming livelihood zones compared to fair condition normally attributable mainly to the good rains received in both zones. With the above-average pasture condition, it was also estimated to last longer than normal in both zones (Table 5). In the Mixed farming livelihood zone, pasture was projected to last four months through to June compared with three months normally. The projected duration was slightly shorter for the Livestock farming livelihood zone where it was expected to last for three months through to May in comparison with two months normally. There were no constraints recorded in accessing pasture in the county.

Browse Browse condition was good in both livelihood zones which was normal for this time of the year. It was estimated to last four months in the Mixed farming livelihood zone compared to three months normally (Table 5). In the Livestock farming livelihood zone, browse was

4 estimated to last for three months which was normal for this time of the year. There were no constraints in accessing browse in both livelihood zones.

Table 5: Forage condition Livelihood Pasture How long Browse How long to last zone condition to last (months) condition (Months) Current Normally Current Normally Current Normally Current Normally

Mixed Good Fair 4 (up to 3 (up to Good Good 4 (up to 3 (up to farming June) May) June) May) zone Livestock Good Fair 3 (up to 2 (up to Good Good 3 (up to 3 (up to farming May) April) May) May)

Livestock productivity Livestock body condition Livestock body condition was good across all livelihood zones for all livestock species. The situation was normal for sheep and goats. However, for cattle, the condition was good as compared to fair normally (Table 6). The favourable body condition could be attributed to improved availability of forage in both livelihood zones due to the good rainfall performance during the season. The positive trend was likely to be sustained for at least three months beyond the onset of the long rains season. The good body condition will likely translate to higher milk production and consumption at household level and consequently increased income for livestock keepers. Table 6: Livestock body condition Livelihood Cattle Sheep Goat zone Current Normally Current Normally Current Normally Mixed Good Good Good Good Good Good farming zones Livestock Good Fair Good Good Good Good farming zone

Tropical Livestock Units (TLUs) Livestock ownership as measured by TLUs was normal in both the mixed farming and livestock farming livelihood zones for medium-income households. TLUs were also normal in the poor-income cohort in the mixed farming one but slightly higher by 67 percent above normal in the livestock farming livelihood zone (Table 7). The increase in TLUs could be due to sustained herd recovery as kidding and calving rates had increased given the relatively good seasons for livestock production that have preceded the current season. There have also been interventions targeting restocking by the county government and NDMA in this specific livelihood zone in a bid to recoup livestock losses during 2017. Table 7: Tropical Livestock Units Livelihood zone Poor income households Medium income households

Current Normal Current Normal Mixed farming 2 2 5 5 Livestock farming 5 3 8 8

Milk production and consumption 5

The main sources of milk were cattle, although goats were also milked on a minimal scale. Milk production increased by 100 and 50 percent in the mixed and livestock farming livelihood zones respectively compared to LTA (Table 8). The trend correlated well with the improved pasture and water condition in both zones. Milk consumption increased by 200 and 33 percent in the mixed and livestock farming livelihood zones respectively when compared to LTA. The increase in consumption could be attributed to improved availability of the commodity at household level due to increased availability of pastures and water. The prices however, remained normal. Although men and women participated in milk trading in almost equal measures, decision-making with regard to the proceeds from the sales was made entirely by men in most instances.

Table 8: Milk production, consumption and prices Livelihood Milk Production Milk consumption (Litres) Prices (Ksh)/Litre zone (Litres)/Household per Household Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Mixed 3 1.5 1.5 0.5 70 70 farming Livestock 3 2 2 1.5 50 50 farming

Migration, livestock diseases and mortalities No migration was reported during the assessment. There were also no cases of notifiable livestock diseases that were recorded during the period under review. Mortality rates were also within seasonal ranges at between two and five percent in the Mixed farming livelihood zone and between three and seven percent in the livestock farming zone for all livestock species.

Water for livestock The main sources of water for livestock in both livelihood zones this season include piped water, boreholes, shallow wells and rivers. Others were earth pans, dams and rivers. All these sources were normal for this time of the year (Table 9). Access to water for livestock was normal in the mixed farming livelihood zone this season as distances to watering points averaged three kilometers similar to the LTA. However, in the livestock farming livelihood zone, they were shorter than normal averaging 4.5 kilometers compared with six kilometres normally. Above-average rainfall amounts in both livelihood zones (Figure 2) have made access to water easier as water sources were adequately recharged. As a result, the water available for livestock was projected to last four months through to June in both livelihood zones when normally they would last one and two months in the livestock farming and mixed farming livelihood zones respectively (Table 9). There were no factors limiting access to water for livestock in either of the livelihood zones.

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Table 9: Water for livestock Livelihoo Sources Return distances Expected Factors d zone (km) duration to last limitin (months) g Current Normal Current Norm Curre Norm access al nt al Mixed Tap, boreholes, Tap, boreholes 3 3 4 2 none farming shallow wells, earth shallow wells pans, dams, rivers, earth pans, dams, streams rivers Livestock Tap, earth pans, Tap, earth pans, 4.5 6 4 1 none farming boreholes, dams, boreholes, streams shallow wells, rivers rivers, dams, shallow wells

The watering frequency was daily for all livestock species in both livelihood zones which was normal for this time of the year (Table 10). Herding and watering of livestock was done by children and youth across the county.

Table 10: Watering frequency in Kwale County Livelihood zone Cattle Goats Sheep

Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed farming 7 7 7 7 7 7 Livestock farming 7 7 7 7 7 7

The season under review significantly impacted both crop and livestock production positively. Given that the two sectors were the major income-earners in the county, the season therefore considerably improved food availability at both household and market levels for crop and livestock farmers alike.

3.2 Access In Kwale County, markets are significant for food access as food gaps are normally experienced due to pests and disease incidences, erratic rainfall and some perennial factors such as poor agricultural practices in addition to preference for specific food commodities. Markets act as fall-back reserves when crop production does not perform well thus enhancing food availability and access. Although the current season has performed quite well in crop production compared with normal, the current stocks are likely to run out by April after which a majority of the households will rely on markets. This section looks at key commodity prices, sources of income, and patterns in food consumption in addition to coping mechanisms put in place to mitigate food gaps. 3.2.1 Markets Market operations Most markets were well provisioned with staples from the current season and from neighbouring counties and the Republic of Tanzania. Major food markets include Kwale Town, Lunga Lunga, Samburu, Kinango and Msambweni while major livestock markets included Kinango, Mwangulu and Mwakijembe. Markets were functioning normally.

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Maize prices The average retail price of a kilogram of Average (2015-2019) 2019 2020 maize was Ksh40 in February 2020, which 60 was well within the county’s seasonal norml (LTA) of Ksh39. The price was 22 50 percent lower than the price posted at the 40 same time in 2019 (Figure 3). Maize prices were likely to remain relatively stable in 30 the next three months as households will 20 still hold some stocks from the current Price (Ksh. / kg) Price(Ksh. season. 10

0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Figure 3: Maize price trends in Kwale County Goat prices A medium-sized three-year old buck was Average (2015-2019) 2019 2020 trading at Ksh 3,533 in February 2020 which 6000 was 18 percent higher than normal in 5000 comparison with the LTA (Figure 4). The current season supplemented the 4000 replenishment of browse in the county that

maintained good goat body condition (Table 6) 3000 Price (Ksh.) which made them fetch competitive prices in 2000 the markets. In the next three months, goat prices are likely to remain stable. Given that 1000 browse was projected to be available for at 0 least the next 3 months, the goat body Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec condition will remain good thus prices are equally likely to continue being competitive. Figure 4: Goat price trends in Kwale County

Average (2015-2019) 2019 2020 3.2.2 Terms of trade (ToT) 160 The ToT (Figure 5) was recorded as 88 in 140 February 2020 which was 15 percent higher

120 than normal in comparison with 77 posted in the LTA. This implies that households are able to 100 purchase 88 kg of maize for every sale of a 80 medium sized goat when compared to 77 kg 60 normally. Therefore, the ToT was slightly in

40 favour of livestock keepers and the purchasing Kilograms of maizeKilogramsof exchanged for a goat exchanged for power at household level had slightly increased 20 enabling increased food access. In addition, the 0 ToT will likely remain stable in the next three Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec months as both livestock and maize prices were Figure 5: Terms of trade in Kwale County projected to maintain their current stable trends.

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3.2.3 Income sources In the mixed farming livelihood zone, the main income sources include casual waged-labour, food crop production and livestock production on which an estimated 10, 15 and 18 percent of the population relies. On the other hand, in the livestock farming livelihood zone, casual waged-labour, livestock production and the sale of charcoal were the main sources of income relied upon by 15, 20 and 27 percent of its population respectively.

3.2.4 Water access and availability

Water availability The main water sources this season include pipelines, boreholes, rivers, water pans and dams which were the normal ones during this time of the year (Figure 6). The current rain season recharged more than 90 percent of open water sources in the county in both livelihood zones. However, a few areas had low water point concentration due to pump breakdowns such as regions surrounding Mtsangatifu, Kilole and Dungumale in the mixed farming livelihood zone. Most water sources were projected to hold water beyond six months until August and even longer because the long rains season will likely recharge them further (Table 11).

Figure 6: Main water sources in Kilifi County Table 11: Water access and availability Livelihood Sources of Water Distance to Cost of Water Waiting Time at Average HH Use Projected Zone Water for (Ksh./20 litres) Source (Litres/person/da Duration of Domestic Use (Minutes) y) Current (Km) Water Sources Source Currentl Normall Curre Norm Curre Norm Curre Normal Curre Normal y y nt al nt al nt nt operatio operatio nal nal Livestock Pipeline 26 26 12 farming Dams/ 36 36 6-12 pans 3 5 3-5 3-5 2-7 3-12 30-60 30-50 Boreholes 9 9 12 Rivers 17 17 6-12 Mixed Pipelines 11 11 12 farming Boreholes 25 22 2 3 3-5 3-10 1 1-2 40-60 30-50 12 Rivers 3 3 6-12

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Water access Distance to water for domestic use Distances to water sources reduced in both livelihood zones averaging two kilometres compared with three normally in the Mixed farming livelihood zone and three kilometres compared with five normally in the Livestock farming one (Table 11). The distances reduced as a result of most of the water sources having been adequately recharged by the rains.

Cost of water at source The cost of water for a 20-litre jerrycan averaged Ksh3-5 across both livelihood zones for households served by pipelines, which was well within seasonal ranges (Table 11). However, the commodity was free of charge for households that were relying on open water sources.

Waiting time at water source There was no waiting time at open water sources due to the lack of draw-off facilities. However, for households served by pipelines, it averaged one minute in the Mixed farming livelihood zone compared with 1-2 minutes normally and 2-7 minutes in the Livestock farming one in comparison with 3-12 minutes normally (Table 11). Waiting time was therefore within seasonal norms for this time of the year.

Water consumption per person per day Water consumption per person per day averaged 30-60 and 40-60 litres in the Livestock farming and Mixed farming livelihood zones respectively. While it was within seasonal ranges in the Livestock farming livelihood zone at 30-50 litres, it was slightly higher than normal in the Mixed farming one which posted the same normal range (Table 11).

3.2.5 Food consumption The proportion of households Food consumption groups in Kwale County with poor, borderline and 80 acceptable food consumption 70 score in the county averaged 11,

68 60 56.2 33 and 56 percent respectively in February 2020. During a similar 50 time last year, the proportions 40 33.1 were six, 26 and 68 percent Feb, 2019 30 26.1 respectively. The implication was 20 Feb, 2020 that there had been a marginal 10.7 10 6 increase of households with poor food consumption (those who 0 were consuming a staple and Proportion of households (%) households of Proportion Poor Borderline Acceptable vegetables daily) in February Poor 2020 as compared to February 2019. In addition, the proportion of households with acceptable Figure 7: Food consumption patterns food consumption decreased by 12 percent from 68 percent in over the same period (Figure 7).

3.2.6 Coping strategy The county’s reduced coping strategy index (rCSI) was aggregated at 13.5 in February 2020 compared with 10.24 in February 2019, indicative of a 32 percent increase. The increase was indicative of an increase in the frequency and severity of households employing 10 consumption-based coping strategies. Both the Livestock farming and Mixed farming livelihood zones posted a similar rCSI of 13.5. In addition, approximately 26 and 33 percent of households had employed stressed and crisis livelihood coping strategies respectively while approximately 40 percent of households had not engaged any livelihood coping strategies to mitigate food deficits. 3.3 Utilization 3.3.1 Morbidity trends According to the District Health Information Systems (DHIS), in February 2020, the three most common diseases for the general population and children aged below five years during the period July to December 2019 included upper respiratory tract infections (URTI), diarrhoea and malaria (Table 12). Table 12: Morbidity trends Reported diseases for children aged below % change Reported diseases for the % change five years general population Disease July-Dec July-Dec July-Dec July-Dec 2018 2019 2018 2019 URTI 98086 85329 -13 297107 174406 -41.3 Diarrhoea 15091 19574 +29.7 30970 15596 -49.6 Malaria 34905 15758 -54.9% 165327 55915 -66.2

There was a 13 percent decrease in URTI incidences reported from July to December 2019 in comparison with a similar period in 2018 for children aged below five years. A significant decrease of 55 percent was also recorded in malaria cases during the same period which could be due to effective interventions at the facility level. There was, however, an increase in diarrhoea cases for this cohort by approximately 30 percent (Table 12). A significant increase was recorded for Diarrhoea cases in Lunga Lunga Sub-county where flooding caused some latrines to collapse that may have contaminated open water sources on which a majority of the population relied on for domestic use. In the general population, incidences of URTI, diarrhoea and malaria reduced by 41, 50 and 66 percent respectively when compared to same period in 2018 (Table 12). In addition, there was a slight increase in the incidences of measles reported by 13 percent from 87 cases during the period July to December 2018 to 98 cases during the same period in 2019.

3.3.2 Immunization and Vitamin A supplementation

Immunization According to the DHIS, in February 2020, the Fully Immunized Children (FIC) coverage reduced by 13 percent from 79 percent during the period July to December 2018 to 66 percent during a similar period in 2019 (Table 13). The decline could be attributed to vaccines running out of stock. The current coverage was 14 percent below the recommended national average of 80 percent and may result in an increase in the county’s disease burden as the immunity of children in this age cohort declines. Table 13: Coverage of the fully immunized child Year Percentage of fully immunized children in the county July – December 2018 78.6 July – December 2019 66.4

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Vitamin A supplementation The Vitamin A supplementation coverage for children aged 6-11 months increased by 25 percent from 151 percent during the period July to December 2018 to 176 percent during a similar period in 2019. The 12-59 months cohort reported a lower increase of eight percent in Vitamin A supplementation from 119.4 percent in 2018 to 127.5 percent in 2019 (Table 14). The increase could be attributed to intensified supplementation in ECDE centres and at community level during the malezi bora campaign in October 2019.

Table 14: Vitamin A supplementation coverage in Kwale County Year Children 6-11 months Children 12 to 59 months Received vitamin A Total Received vitamin A Total supplementation Population (6- supplementation Population (12- Source> DHIS 11 months) Source> DHIS 59 months) MOH 710 Vaccines MOH 710 Vaccines and and Immunizations Immunizations July – 29778(176%) 16884 165623(127.5%) 129859 December 2019 July – 23602(151%) December 2018 15553 136358(119.4%) 114190

3.3.3 Nutritional status and dietary diversity The proportion of children aged below five years who were at risk of malnutrition Average (2015-2019) 2019 2020 was approximated at 2 percent in February 14

2020 using the mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) method (Figure 12 8). The current proportion of children with 10 MUAC less than 135 (At Risk MUAC) was less than half of the LTA. This 8 MUAC at Risk was also significantly 6 lower than that posted at a similar time 4 last year. The implication was that the nutritional status of children was 'at risk' (MUAC<135mm) 2 significantly better than normal when 0 compared to similar time in 2019. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec According to the Knowledge, Attitude, Figure 8: Proportion of children at risk in Kwale Behaviour and Practices (KABP) 2018 County report, nearly all children (99.5 percent) in the county had breastfed at least once while 86 percent were still breastfeeding. Approximately 84 percent of children had been initiated to breastfeeding within one hour of birth in line with the World Health Organization (WHO) 2010 regulations, while the proportion of those who had been exclusively breastfed for the first six months of life stood at 73 percent. However, on supplementation of breast milk with other foods from six months of age, children aged 6-23 months with minimum dietary diversity averaged 46 percent while those with minimum meal frequency were recorded at 57 percent.

3.3.4 Sanitation and hygiene The main water sources at household level included pans/dams, boreholes and pipelines. Water handling once fetched was sub-optimal in the county as 20-litre jerry cans were used to ferry water to homesteads and emptied in large plastic containers for storage which were mostly left uncovered. The water was also not treated before consumption by 75 percent of 12 households in the county. Latrine coverage had registered a slight improvement from 60.6 percent during the period July to December 2018 to 63 percent during a similar period in 2019. Most parts of the Livestock farming livelihood zone comprising largely Lunga Lunga and Kinango Sub-counties have relatively lower latrine coverage averaging approximately 50 percent as some latrines had collapsed due to heavy rains. Matuga and Msambweni Sub- counties which make up the larger part of the Mixed farming livelihood zone had higher coverage of 79 and 73 percent respectively. The county therefore had lower-than- recommended latrine coverage of 100 percent. Given that well over 50 percent of the county’s population consumed water from unprotected sources, the sub-optimal latrine coverage could be a major contributor to increased morbidity in the county particularly in relation to water-borne diseases.

3.4 Trends of key food security indicators A summary of the key food security indicators is provided in Table 15. Table 15: Food security trends in Kwale County Indicator Long rains assessment, July 2019 Short rains assessment, Feb 2020

% of maize 0 105 stocks held by households Livestock Good in all livestock in mixed farming Good in all livelihood zones for both sheep, goats body livelihood zone and in small stock in and cattle condition livestock farming zone Fair in cattle in livestock farming livelihood zone Water Mixed farming (35-40) Mixed farming (40-60) consumption (litres per Livestock farming (15) Livestock farming (30-60) person per day) Price of maize 47.9 40.2 (per kg) Distance to Mixed farming (2-3) Mixed farming (3.0) grazing (km) Livestock farming (4-5) Livestock farming (4.5) Terms of 27 87.9 trade Coping strategy index Feb 2019 Feb 2020 County 10.24 County 13.5 Mixed farming 11.9 Mixed farming 13.5 Livestock farming 8.7 Livestock farming 13.5

a) Food consumption Feb 2019 Feb 2020 score (mean) Poor 6 Poor 10.7 Borderline 26.1 Borderline 33.1 (Proportions Acceptable 68 Acceptable 56.2 %) Proportion 11 2.0 (%) at risk of malnutrition as measured by MUAC

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4.0 CROSS-CUTTING ISSUES 4.1 Education Access: Enrolment There was a significant decline of 37.3 percent in the enrolment of pupils at ECD in Term 1 2020 in comparison with Term 3 2019 (Table 16). The major contributing factor to the decline was the implementation of a government directive that reduced the lower age limit for entry to ECDE from three to four years. Enrolment, which takes place only once at the beginning of the year, was also still on-going in most centres. Boys’ enrolment reduced by 36.5 percent while girls’ reduced by 38.1 percent. At primary and secondary school levels, there was a slight increase in enrolment of 2.6 and 8.7 percent respectively in Term 3 2019 to Term 1 2020 (Table 16). The increase in enrolment in primary level could be attributed to new admissions in addition to improved transition from ECDE. In secondary schools, the increase was due to the continued enforcement of a government directive to ensure 100 percent transition from primary to secondary level of education.

Table 16: Enrolment trends Term III 2019 Term I 2020 (includes new students registered and drop-outs since Term III 2019) Enrolment Boys Girls Total Boys Girls Total ECD 40,060 38,558 78,618 25,457 23,849 49,306 Primary 93,545 91,119 184,664 96738 92,786 189,524 Secondary 16,419 16,312 32,731 17,056 18,512 35,568

Participation: Attendance Attendance rates decreased in the ECD level due to reduction in the lower age limit for entry into primary school while those at the primary level remained fairly stable although with slight increases as enrolment continually increased (Table 17). At secondary school level, attendance rates increased due to a government incentive of Free Day Secondary School Education (FDSE) capitation that encouraged continued attendance by students.

Table 17: Class attendance trends in Kwale County Indicator Term III 2019 Term I 2020 September 2019 October 2019 November 2019 January 2020 February 2020 School Boys Girls Boys Girls Boys Girls Boys Girls Boys Girls attendance ECD 36,446 34,047 36,438 34,359 24,602 23,010 Primary 84,504 81,960 84,453 81,961 88,624 109,807 88,716 109,896 Secondary 16,076 16,911 16,073 16,908 16,081 16,912 17,898 21,579 19,191 22,793

Retention: Drop out The dropout rate at all levels of education was insignificant compared with the overall enrolment (Table 18). At ECDE level, the main reason cited for dropout was the lack of the household’s prioritization of education as it held minimal value to them. At primary and secondary school level, girls dropped due to child pregnancies while boys left school to engage in income-generating activities such as boda boda riding. Both boys and girls also dropped out when there was no provision of a meal at school. School dropout in all three levels of education was also due to the inability of parents to meet education-related costs at school. 14

Table 18: Drop-out rates in Kwale County Indicator End of Term II 2019 End of Term III 2019 Students dropped out from school Boys Girls Boys Girls ECD 1 2 2 4 Primary 7 10 24 27 Secondary 3 4 7 12

School meals program There are several types of school meals programs that exist in the county (Table 19). The county government was funding the Regular School Meals Program in 856 centres through the provision of fortified porridge which was on-going at the time of the assessment. The Home-Grown School Meals Program (HGSMP) was currently not running because schools had not received funds to purchase food commodities.

Table 19: School meals programs in Kwale County Name of No of HGSM RSMP CSMP Other type of Total number of County schools school feeding beneficiaries with (Please specify school below) feeding Boys Girls Boys Girls Boys Girls Boys Girls Boys Girls ECDE 856 6643 7586 10303 9972 23429 22839 Primary 95 25492 24273 238 205 25730 24273 Total 951 49,765 14,229 443 20,275 96,271

Inter-sector links No pupils had switched schools due to insecurity. In addition, there were no schools that had been closed down for any reason neither were there any that were holding IDPs. In Kinango Sub-County, 40 schools did not have hand-washing facilities while 34 did not have a functional water drinking source within 100m of the schools. Several schools in the county offered some health and nutrition services that included deworming and programs targeting the prevention of communicable diseases. There were 98 schools in Kinango Sub-county, (83 public and 15 private primary schools) and 99 schools in Msambweni Sub-county (55 public and 44 private schools) which had deworming programs. Schools in Matuga, Lunga Lunga and Samburu Sub-counties also had 95, 89 and 82 similar programs respectively. In addition, only Msambweni Sub-county had communicable disease prevention programmes in 99 schools.

5.0 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS

5.1 Assumptions  According to the meteorological department, the long rains season will likely be average to above-average in the county.  Income from increased opportunities for casual labour will likely increase through to May as households engage in land preparation, planting and weeding for the long rains season.  Maize production is projected to be significant in the long rains season since it is the more reliable one for the enterprise and the projected good rains will act as an incentive for households to increase acreage under maize.

5.2 Food security outcomes for March, April and May 2020 Food access and availability will likely improve due to availability of the harvest from the current season and enhanced income from increased opportunities of casual labour during the long rains season as households engage in land preparation, planting and weeding. As even 15 poor households will still hold some cereal stocks from the current season, food availability will therefore still be assured particularly Matuga and Kinango Sub-counties where leaching was not widespread. Milk production is also likely to sustain an above-average trend from which milk sales will increase further bolstering food access. Increased food access and availability will also likely lead to improved nutritional status for children aged below five years while also increasing meal frequency, nutritional value and dietary diversity in the general population. However, for Kiwegu, Jego, Sega, Perani and Shimoni in Lunga Sub- county and Ramisi in Msambweni Sub-counties, where flooding led to crop destruction, leaching, water-logging and consequent below normal production of maize, stocks are likely to run out. This is likely to compromise food availability and increase reliance on markets earlier than normal. Therefore, a majority of the households will be classified in the stressed phase (IPC Phase 2).

5.3 Food security outcomes for June, July and August 2020 Food stocks are likely to have been depleted by June and markets will be an important source of food access and availability. During this period food commodity prices are likely be on an increasing trend. However, stocks depletion is likely to coincide with availability of casual labour opportunities as households engage in weeding for the long rains season crop. Therefore, even with reduced food availability from own production, food access will likely continue to be enabled through markets to the end of the scenario period when harvesting will have begun. In addition, livestock production will likely improve as it is envisaged to remain stable and will supplement domestic incomes even with increasing food commodity prices. Therefore, most poor households will still afford minimum food requirements and it is not envisaged that they will require to increase the severity or frequency of consumption-based coping strategies in order to curb food deficits. The nutritional status of children may remain stable although other non-food security related reasons such as poor sanitation and hygiene could lead to some deterioration. Consequently, most households will likely remain in stressed phase (IPC Phase 2).

6.0 CONCLUSION AND INTERVENTIONS

6.1 Conclusion

6.1.1 Phase classification The county is classified in stressed phase (IPC Phase 2) in both livelihood zones. The drivers of food insecurity this season was a fall army worm invasion that caused decreased maize production and floods that led to crop destruction, leaching and waterlogging.

6.1.2 Summary of findings Leaching, waterlogging and crop destruction were the main drivers of food insecurity this season. Most parts of the county received more than twice the rainfall they normally receive at this time of the year in both livelihood zones. In addition, the rainy season extended well in to January 2020. However, crop production was almost normal for maize as it was affected by the leaching of soil nutrients and significantly above-average for cowpeas and green grams. There was a significant positive impact of the current season on livestock production as forage rejuvenation was optimal, which resulted in good livestock body condition and increased milk production. Although food stocks are currently available at household level, they will have been depleted by end of April upon which households will begin market purchases. Nevertheless, given that household purchasing power will continue to improve owed to increased availability of casual labour opportunities, food access will still be assured 16 for the majority of households in the county. In addition, with the rains having recharged over 90 percent of the open water sources in both livelihood zones, both water availability and access had improved compared with normal times. Food consumption patterns registered a slight deterioration in comparison with a similar time last year while the level of coping had increased during the same period as households increased the frequency and severity of employing consumption-based coping strategies. The implication was that food frequency, dietary diversity and nutritional value of food had decreased since households had reverted to employing atypical coping mechanisms to bridge food gaps. However, the county’s nutritional status of children below five years of age had significantly improved this year compared with normal times. 6.1.3 Sub-county ranking Table 20: Sub-county ranking in Kwale County Sub- Food security Main food security threat (if any) county/area rank (1-4) Kinango 1 Leaching Lunga 2 Crop destruction due to flooding, leaching, waterlogging Matuga 3 Leaching Msambweni 4 Low food stocks, leaching, waterlogging

6.2 On-going Interventions

6.2.1 Food interventions The county government through the department of early childhood department was providing fortified porridge to all the ECDE centres in the county.

6.2.2 Non-food interventions Table 21: On-going non-food interventions in Kwale County Sub- Intervention Locatio No. of Implementer Impacts in Cost Time county n beneficiaries terms of (Kshs) Frame food security Agriculture

All sub- Distribution of All 10,000 CGK Increase in 4.4M 2019-2020 counties 10MT each of production cowpea & green gram seeds Kinango Purchase of drip All 417 CGK, Increase in 21.6M 2019-2020 kits for Nyalani NARIGP, Red farm scheme Cross and income And Sustainable Farm Concern land Management (SLM), overhead water storage tank All sub- Tractor All 3,800 CGK Increase in 2019-2020 counties ploughing to production increase acreage under crop production

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Sub- Intervention Locatio No. of Implementer Impacts in Cost Time county n beneficiaries terms of (Kshs) Frame food security All sub- Capacity- All 3800 CGK Reduction 2M 2019-2020 counties building on in post- post-harvest harvest management losses Education Kinango Community Tata 443 children Community Children Feb 2020 funded school Primary members don’t walk meals program School long distances home for lunch children spend more time studying Matuga Home-grown 3455 GoK Improved 2020-2021 school meals enrolment, program attendance and retention rates of pupils Matuga Provision of 8713 . CGK Improve 2020-2021 fortified porridge Health and nutrition

All sub Vitamin A 20 wards 146743  CGK Increased 4,100,0 Continuous counties Supplementatio  Unicef immunity 00 n against diseases All sub Management of 20 wards 2400  CGK Increased 4,000,0 Continuous counties Acute  Unicef immunity 00 Malnutrition against (IMAM) diseases All sub Iron Folate 20 wards 33123  CGK Increased 1,000,0 Continuous counties Supplementatio  Unicef immunity 00 n among against Pregnant diseases Women All sub Deworming 20 wards 112823  CGK Increased 1,400,0 Continuous counties  Unicef immunity 00 against diseases All sub Zinc 20 wards 35170  CGK Increased 1,000,0 Continuous counties supplementatio  Unicef immunity 00 n against diseases

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Sub- Intervention Locatio No. of Implementer Impacts in Cost Time county n beneficiaries terms of (Kshs) Frame food security Water

Matuga Construction,  Tiwi 1400  CGK  Improved 5M 2019/2020 Matuga rehabilitation  Lukore 3600 water 3M Msamb and extension  2000 access 2.5M weni of pipeline Msamb  Kinond 2100 0.97M weni o Lunga Lunga 3000 7M  Kikone ni Msamb Repair of  Mkwak 1,200  CGK  Improved 3M 2019/2020 weni boreholes wani access to Lunga and/or  Msamb 5,000 water 2.9M Lunga replacement of weni borehole  Jego/Se 3,000 19M equipment ga Livestock All sub- Issuing of bee All sub- 652 CGK Improved 2.4M July 2019- counties keeping counties beneficiaries nutrition. June 2020 equipments to in the farmers group. county.

6.3 Recommended Interventions

6.3.1 Food interventions Table 22: Estimation of population affected by food insecurity in Kwale County Sub-county Food security rank (1-4) Proportion in need of immediate food assistance (%) Lunga 1 15-20 Msambweni 2 5-10 Matuga 3 5-10 Kinango 4 5-10

6.3.2 Non-food interventions Sub- Interventi Location No. of Proposed Required Availabl Time county on beneficiaries Implemente Resource e Frame rs s (Kshs) Resourc es (Kshs) Water sector Lunga Awareness Vanga and 39,680 CGK, 0.5M TechnicaMarch- Lunga creation & Mwereni Water l April enforceme Resources Personne2020 nt of Authority, l safeguardi NDMA ng riparian zone of 19

Sub- Interventi Location No. of Proposed Required Availabl Time county on beneficiaries Implemente Resource e Frame rs s (Kshs) Resourc es (Kshs) Umba & Mwena Rivers Lungalung Water Vanga, 68,300 CGK 0.5M TechnicaFeb - a and quality Ramisi, l March Msambwe testing Kinondo, Personne2020 ni Gombato, l Pongwe Kinango Awareness Macknon, 202,235  CGK, 0.5M TechnicaMarch- creation & Samburu,  Water l April enforceme Mwavumbo Resources personne 2020 nt of and Kasemeni Authority l safeguardi  NDMA ng riparian zone of Mwache River & its tributaries Education sector Kinango Communit Kinango  32,371  GoK 2M Water 2020- y School pupils  Community Manpow 2021 Meals  3308 members er Program students  UNICEF Matuga School  Boyani West  GoK 4M 2020- meals  Mteza  Community 2021 program Central members  Ganze  UNICEF  Gopha Msambwe Hygiene  Mwamanga 2,526 pupils  GoK 2.66M 2020- ni and Pry. School  UNICEF 2021 sanitation  Ramisi Pry.  Aga Khan programs School Foundation to reduce  Munje Pry. out-break School of diseases  Nganja Pry. School  Msambweni Pry. School Msambwe School  Msambweni 26,430  GoK 4M 2020- ni meals Sub-county 2021 program Agriculture All sub- Increase 8 200  CGK, 15M 15M 2020- counties micro  Red Cross 2021 irrigation  Farm sites Concern

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Sub- Interventi Location No. of Proposed Required Availabl Time county on beneficiaries Implemente Resource e Frame rs s (Kshs) Resourc es (Kshs) All sub- Field All sub- 200  FAO 1M Personne2020- counties surveillanc counties  CGK l 2021 e on pest & diseases (locust, fall army worm) All sub- Conservati All sub- 3,403  CGK 64M None 2020- counties on counties 2021 agriculture All sub- Post- All sub- 12,000  CGK 2 M 0.5M 2020- counties harvest counties 2021 manageme nt Health and nutrition All sub Vitamin A 20 wards 146743  CGK 1,000,000 2020- counties Supplemen  UNICEF 2021 tation All sub Zinc 20 wards 35,170  CGK 1,000,000 2020- counties supplement  UNICEF 2021 ation All sub Dewormin 20 wards 112,823  CGK 1.4M 2020- counties g  UNICEF 2021

All sub Manageme 20 wards 2400  CGK 4.0M 2020- counties nt of Acute  UNICEF 2021 malnutritio n All sub Iron Folate 20 wards 33123  CGK 1.4M 2020- counties Supplemen  UNICEF 2021 tation among Pregnant Women Lunga Procure 20 wards 200000  CGK 500,000 March – Lunga and and June Msambwe distribute 2020 ni water treatment kits. Livestock

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Sub- Interventi Location No. of Proposed Required Availabl Time county on beneficiaries Implemente Resource e Frame rs s (Kshs) Resourc es (Kshs) All sub- Kinango Rehabilitation 1000  CGK Construct July counties of Kilibasi livestock ion 2020- water pan in keepers materials June Mackinnon and 2021 Ward labour worth 15M

All sub- All Pasture and 2000  CGK, Technical TechnicaJuly counties fodder livestock  Community knowhow l know 2020- conservation keepers , Funds how June worth 5M 2021

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