CROATIA Public Disclosure Authorized EARTHQUAKE Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment Public Disclosure Authorized 2020 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized CROATIA EARTHQUAKE Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment 2020 Prepared by Facilitated by © June 2020, Government of Croatia The Croatia Earthquake - Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment 2020 report has been prepared by the Government of Croatia, with the support of the World Bank. This report summarizes the findings of the Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment that was carried out between April and June 2020. The report is based on data as of June 5, 2020 gathered during the assessment which was coordinated by the Ministry of Construction and Physical Planning. Respective sector assessments are the work of the line ministries: Ministry of Construction and Physical Planning, Ministry of Culture, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Health, Ministry of Interior, Ministry of Regional Development and EU Funds, and Ministry of Science and Education, with contributions from the City of Zagreb, Krapina-Zagorje County, Zagreb County, Faculty of Civil Engineering - University of Zagreb, Croatian Seismological Survey – Faculty of Science, University of Zagreb, Croatian Bureau of Statistics, and the World Bank. English Language Editor Jonathan Bousfield Graphic Design Petra Slobodnjak Photos CROPIX (Damjan Tadić, Ronald Goršić, Tomislav Kristo, Željko Puhovski, Goran Mahkek, Ranko Šuvar, Marko Todorov), Saša Zinaja / NFOTO, Igor Pavlović, Ivan Marinković, Ministry of Cul- ture and Anto Magzan Cover photo Anto Magzan 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS Abbreviations and Acronyms 6 Acknowledgments 9 Foreword 10 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 11 Context 13 Summary of Damage and Losses 14 Summary of the Macroeconomic Impact Assessment 17 Summary of Human and Social Impacts 18 Summary of Recovery and Reconstruction Needs 20 INTRODUCTION 21 Croatia’s Disaster Risk Profile 23 The Socioeconomic Context of Zagreb and the Surrounding Counties 27 Description of the 2020 Zagreb Earthquake 28 Assessment Objectives and Methodology 36 SECTORS: DAMAGE, LOSSES, AND NEEDS 39 Housing 42 Education 47 Health 53 Culture and Cultural Heritage 58 Business 64 MACROECONOMIC AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT IMPACTS 71 Macroeconomic Impact 73 Human Development Impact 78 RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION 87 Disaster Risk Reduction 89 Recovery Needs and Guiding Principles 92 ANNEX 95 Additional Information on the RDNA Methodology 97 3 LIST OF TABLES Table 1 Damage and losses by sectors (in million EUR) 16 Table 2 Damage and losses by county (in million EUR) 16 Table 3 Number and percentage of damaged buildings in the protected historical urban complex of the City of Zagreb 17 Table 4 Summary of recovery and reconstruction needs (in million EUR) 20 Table 5 Major earthquakes in the Zagreb area – historical overview of key events 25 Table 6 Select socio-economic indicators for the City of Zagreb, Zagreb County, and Krapina-Zagorje County 27 Table 7 Type and number of activated participants and hours spent until May 15, 2020 30 Table 8 Damage and building usability assessment levels 32 Table 9 Number of damaged buildings and surface area affected in the housing sector 44 Table 10 Total damage in the housing sector (in million EUR) 44 Table 11 Total losses in the housing sector (in million EUR) 45 Table 12 Recovery needs in the housing sector (in million EUR) 46 Table 13 Education sector at a glance 48 Table 14 Number of damaged buildings and surface area affected in the education sector by subsector 49 Table 15 Total damage and losses in the education sector by subsector (in million EUR) 49 Table 16 Total damage and losses in the education sector in the affected counties (in million EUR) 50 Table 17 Reconstruction needs in the education sector by subsector (in million EUR) 52 Table 18 Recovery needs over time in the education sector (in million EUR) 52 Table 19 An overview of healthcare service delivery nationwide 54 Table 20 Damaged health facilities 55 Table 21 Total damage and losses in the health sector by subsector (in million EUR) 55 Table 22 Total damage and losses in the health sector per county (in million EUR) 55 Table 23 Public and private health sector reconstruction needs (in million EUR) 57 Table 24 Reconstruction and recovery needs in the health sector (in million EUR) 57 Table 25 Statistical data on the culture and cultural heritage sector 59 Table 26 Number and percentage of damaged buildings in the protected historical urban complex of the City of Zagreb 60 Table 27 Number of damaged buildings and surface area affected by subsector in the culture and cultural heritage sector 61 Table 28 Damage and losses by subsector in the culture and cultural heritage sector (in million EUR) 61 Table 29 Total damage and losses by county in the culture and cultural heritage sector (in million EUR) 61 Table 30 Total recovery and reconstruction needs in the culture and cultural heritage sector (in million EUR) 63 Table 31 Structure of the business sector by size 64 Table 32 Economic operators and area affected by the earthquake in the area of the City of Zagreb, Krapina-Zagorje County and Zagreb County 67 Table 33 Total damage and losses by ownership and county in the business sector (in million EUR) 68 Table 34 Total recovery and reconstruction needs in the business sector (in million EUR) 69 Table 35 Main macroeconomic and fiscal indicators 77 Table 36 Damage and building usability assessment levels 98 4 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1 Surface area of buildings affected by the earthquake by sector (in m2) 17 Figure 2 Seismic hazard map for the return period of 475 years 25 Figure 3 Territorial distribution of surface level deformations in the City of Zagreb 26 Figure 4 A preliminary intensity map of the earthquake of March 22, 2020 at 5:24 AM (UTC) 28 Figure 5 Temporal succession of earthquakes with magnitudes above 1.0 that oc- curred in the period from March 22 to May 31, 2020 in the Zagreb area 29 Figure 6 3D view of Lower and Upper Town of City of Zagreb buildings based on the usability classifications 32 Figure 7 Zagreb’s protected Zones A and B 37 Figure 8 Residential building stock in the earthquake affected area 43 Figure 9 Distribution of housing units by year of construction 43 Figure 10 Distribution of damaged buildings and of the total number of square meters damaged in the education sector 49 Figure 11 Share of total damage by county in the culture and cultural heritage sector 59 Figure 12 Number of employees 65 Figure 13 Sales and exports by county 65 Figure 14 Number of firms by sector 66 Figure 15 Sales revenues by sector 66 Figure 16 Number of crafts in Croatia and the three counties affected by the earthquake 66 Figure 17 Monthly change in number of employees in crafts in Croatia and the City of Zagreb (2020) 67 Figure 18 Interruption of service (private sector) 68 Figure 19 Interruption of service (public sector) 68 Figure 20 Poverty in Zagreb by district 79 Figure 21 Estimated poverty impact of COVID-19 crisis 79 Figure 22 Exposed population during the earthquake in Zagreb, Croatia 81 Figure 23 3D view of the Lower and Upper Towns of the City of Zagreb based on the 99 usability classifications 5 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AeDES Post-Earthquake Damage and Safety Assessment and Short-Term Countermeasures form ArcGIS Aeronautical Reconnaissance Coverage Geographic Information System AROP At-Risk-of-Poverty Rate BBB Build Back Better CAB Current Account Balance CAD Current Account Deficit CBS Croatian Bureau of Statistics COVID-19 Coronavirus Disease 2019 CoZ City of Zagreb CPI Consumer Price Index CSS Croatian Seismological Survey, Department of Geophysics, Faculty of Science, University of Zagreb DaLA Damage and Loss Assessment DInSAR Differential Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry DRM Disaster Risk Management DRR Disaster Risk Reduction EC8 Eurocode 8 EE Energy Efficiency EMS European Macroseismic Scale ENV ENV Eurocode - Version of Eurocode published by CEN as a pre-Standard ENV (for subsequent conversion into EN) EOC Emergency Operations Center EQ Earthquake ERCC Emergency Response and Coordination Center ESA European System of Accounts EU European Union EUR Euro Currency EUSF European Union Solidarity Fund FCE Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Zagreb FINA Financial Information Agency GDP Gross Domestic Product GIS Geographic Information System 6 GoC Government of Croatia HBOR Croatian Bank for Reconstruction and Development HCPI Croatian Center for Earthquake Engineering HNS Host Nation Support HRK Croatian Currency Kuna HZZ Croatian Employment Service IFI International financial institution ISDR International Strategy for Disaster Reduction KB University Hospital KBC University Hospital Center KZC Krapina-Zagorje County LOS Line of Sight M Magnitude MCS Mercalli–Cancani Scale MoC Ministry of Culture MoCPP Ministry of Construction and Physical Planning MoEEC Ministry of Economy, Entrepreneurship and Crafts MoF Ministry of Finance MoH Ministry of Health MoI Ministry of Interior MoRDEUF Ministry of Regional Development and EU Funds MoSE Ministry of Science and Education Mw Moment Magnitude Scale N1 Unusable due to external risks N2 Unusable due to damage NDS National Development Strategy NSI National Statistical Institutes OECD Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development OSCE Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe PDNA Post-Disaster Needs Assessment PN1 Temporarily unusable and requiring a more detailed inspection PN2 Temporarily unusable with suggested short-term countermeasures PPP Purchasing Power