LEBANESE DEMOCRACY BATTERED, FLAWED, AND UNMATCHED IN THE ARAB WORLD

WILLIAM HARRIS Lebanon Renaissance Foundation Lebanese Democracy: Battered, Flawed, and Unmatched in the Arab World 02 03

with multi-communal cohabitation, Some of the imperfections were not the predatory attentions of Arab An unmatched can show the Arab East a brighter absent from 20th-century Western regimes, and freewheeling Lebanese pluralist pedigree political future. If Lebanon’s post-2004 democracies. It is more important politics eased their penetration. After democratic revival founders because to remember that the confessional the June 1967 Israeli defeat and Lebanon’s pluralist politics and of continuing assault by the Syrian democracy of mid-20th century humiliation of the Arabs, political representative institutions, however autocracy, there will be little hope for independent Lebanon became the activation of the large Palestinian battered and flawed, have a historical democratization in the Arab Levant. bedrock of flourishing civil liberties, refugee population in Lebanon pedigree unmatched anywhere in vociferous political debate, successive interacted balefully with Lebanese the Middle East. They date back to parliamentary elections involving Muslim grievances about the Maronite the administrative council of the Lebanese genuine competition, and repeated advantage in Lebanon’s domestic autonomous Ottoman province of pluralism and constitutional transfers of presidential affairs. The new Syrian Baathist Mount Lebanon, established in 1864 social reality and government authority. After the regime, as it consolidated its power as an elected multi-sectarian advisory mid-1950s, the contrast with the in Damascus in the early 1970s under body for the provincial governor. In rest of the Arab world was like that Hafiz al-Assad, looked to command other words, Lebanon acquired a From the outset, Lebanon’s pluralist between day and night. its Lebanese flank against both proto-parliament decades before politics evolved to accommodate the Lebanon’s tolerance and openness, and other Arabs. The modern the emergence of either Israel or pre-existing social reality of popular however, made Lebanese democracy Syrian state was not reconciled to the Turkish republic, and far in identification with various Muslim vulnerable to disruption, especially Lebanon’s existence, as indicated advance of the creation of modern and Christian sectarian communities, by Syrian refusal of diplomatic Arab states. When France and Britain each with its own leaders and relations between Damascus and cobbled together such entities as preoccupations. The communities . In the 1970s, a combination of Syria and Iraq in the 1920s, Mount crystallized in medieval times, Palestinian armed assertion, Israeli Lebanon already had half a century between the Islamic conquest of the military intrusion, Syrian interference, of experience of council elections and Levant in the 640s and the Ottoman conflicting Lebanese communal pluralist discourse. overthrow of the Egyptian Mamelukes responses, and Lebanese regime in 1517. It distorts history to represent incompetence brought large-scale Apart from Lebanon, the modern Lebanese sectarianism simply as a violence and degradation of the Arab world divides between two product of 19th-century European Lebanese state. almost equally dismal historical interventions. trajectories. In Syria, Iraq, Jordan, power structures by installing safety The eclipse of Lebanon’s confessional «We thougth of ways of salvaging the and , bourgeois political valves, not to move toward genuine Out of the late 19th-century Ottoman Lebanese situation. We had exerted political democracy, with no truly free competition flickered briefly in representative government. The post- autonomous province and French efforts; we had also earlier sent weapons and parliamentary elections between the ammunition, which were not in short supply the mid-20th century before the 2003 Iraqi experiment is different, but mandatory tutelage in the 1920s to begin with. We were left with the only last poll before the war years in 1972 curtain of autocracy descended. it took foreign invasion to uproot a and 1930s the modern Lebanese option of directly interfering in the conflict so and the first poll after the lifting of we ordered our troops to move in under the Elsewhere, in the Arabian Peninsula vicious dictatorship and the outcome state developed its eccentric banner of the Palestinian Liberation Army, a Syrian Baathist hegemony in 2005, and North Africa, new Arab states has been bloody fragmentation. confessional democracy, to balance fact which was unknown to all». lasted three decades. Fifteen years of proceeded without a break from the interests of the sectarian Hafez Al-Assad’s speech at the University of mayhem were succeeded in 1990 by Damascus July 20th 1976 Ottoman or European hegemony Only Lebanon, with a 144-year communities (“confessions”), fifteen years of subjection to Baathist to monarchical or republican representative tradition, has a serious mediated through their bourgeois Syria, one of the authors of Lebanon’s authoritarianism. From the 1980s, history of a parliamentary role in elites. The balance has been a from Lebanon’s unsympathetic wartime miseries. It is a tribute to the some Arab regimes implemented government, political pluralism, product of power relations and elite neighborhood. The country’s resilience of Lebanon’s deep pluralist limited political liberalization, with and public freedoms. Only Lebanon, manipulation, has never been fully geographical centrality in the traditions that a free press, a dynamic elections and political party activity, with its intellectual and commercial fair, and its operations ossified Middle East and its position on the civil society, and a functioning but the objective was to secure ferment and its long trial and error sectarian compartmentalization. Arab-Israeli front line attracted parliament survived the dark decades, Lebanon Renaissance Foundation Lebanese Democracy: Battered, Flawed, and Unmatched in the Arab World 04 05

to re-emerge in good order in the and poor accountability, but it is by allocations roughly aligned with Full elaboration of modern Lebanon’s obligation to fulfill the terms of the Greater Lebanon was intended to early 21st century. light years the most inclusive and population. This had antecedents confessional democracy took place mandate, a duality that gave rise to all be a viable territorial platform for a participatory political system in the stretching back to 1845 multi- between 1920 and 1943, under sorts of tensions. Maronite dominated state, but in fact After renewed independence in 2005, Arab world. Its resurgence since 2005 communal advisory councils for the French Mandatory rule. France, it established a political entity with no Lebanon remains what it was when does not deserve to be emasculated qa’im-maqams (administrators) which had long-standing special France contributed fundamental majority community. Mount Lebanon it initially gained its independence by the steady, cunningly modulated of Mount Lebanon. The style of relations with the Maronite Catholics elements to modern Lebanon. First, with Beirut could have become a in 1943: a multi-communal country attrition coordinated from Damascus representation after 1864 set the of Mount Lebanon, took advantage in September 1920, in coordination Maronite dominated state; Greater with no majority community in which against it. pattern for subsequent confessional of the Ottoman collapse in 1918 to with leading Maronites, France Lebanon could only function on the sectarian diversity colors national democracy. In functions, including a extract a mandate from the new enlarged the Ottoman province of basis of multi-communal pluralism, identity. Confessional democracy, veto power over tax increases, and League of Nations to control the Mount Lebanon into a “Greater with a tentative Maronite primacy. if adjusted periodically in line with FouNdation of electoral arrangements, the council area of modern Lebanon and Syria, Lebanon” that pulled in the coastal The French adjusted to this reality demography, therefore continues to confessional of the autonomous province was theoretically to guide the local cities of Beirut, Tripoli, and Sidon, more quickly than the Maronites, and reflect the country’s social reality. democracy, qualitatively different from other sought to build the large Sunni and Whatever the faults of this framework, 1860-1943 Ottoman provincial councils. Shiite Muslim populations of the newly it allows popular participation incorporated districts into enlarged in politics and government in a Mount Lebanon’s formal autonomy The council advised the governor, a representative institutions. particularly complex corner of the within the Ottoman Empire, extracted Christian appointed from elsewhere Middle East. Confessional democracy by the European powers in the early in the empire, on the domestic affairs Second, France organized population can also be a way station, within which 1860s, was a bid to stabilize the rural of Mount Lebanon, the geographical counts, including a full-scale census the Lebanese become sufficiently hinterland of Beirut after almost core of modern Lebanon. A Christian in 1932. Multi-communal pluralism integrated to proceed to a non- two centuries of Maronite Catholic majority of seven out of 12 members could only operate in the context of communal framework. However, expansion, increasingly impinging reflected in subdued fashion solid data regarding the demographic the persistent absence of large on the dominant Druze clans. the Christian 80 percent of the balance of the communities. The cross-sectarian political parties Druze clan chiefs led a distinctive population. In the arrangement the 1932 census showed a razor-thin indicates that practical democracy mountain community that emerged dominant Maronite community came Christian majority of 51 percent in is not yet separable from communal out of Ismaili Shiite Islam in the out a little badly – despite amounting Greater Lebanon, with the Maronites sensitivities. Overall, Lebanon’s early eleventh century. European to nearly 60 percent of Mount as the largest of the three major reconciliation of representative intervention, with a French landing Lebanon’s inhabitants, Maronites communities (29 percent), followed by government with its communal near Beirut, followed the 1860 Druze received four council seats, the the Sunnis (23 percent) and the Shiites compartments is a precious victory over the poorly organized largest communal bloc but only one- (20 percent). The trend since a 1921 counterpoint to the notion that Christians, involving widespread third of the total. Druze, Shiites, and survey indicated that the Christians autocracy is the best form of political massacres of Christian villagers. The Sunnis received seating somewhat would soon lose their edge, but the practice in the fractured Middle East. events culminated escalating interplay above their demographic shares. In From 1861 to 1914, Lebanon was at peace, as it had been for most of its history, the one notable numbers gave interim legitimacy of Maronite peasant rebellions against each constituency male residents exception being the period between 1840 and 1860 and, in particular, the civil war of 1860. By 1861 to the Maronite political advantage. peace reigned, Lebanon had been reorganized, and its factions learned to live together in relative It is worth reviewing the long, Maronite and Druze lords encouraged voted for a group of headmen, harmony, a harmony that lasted until the end of the Ottoman Empire. By the 1930s, the presidency was a difficult development of Lebanon’s by the Maronite church, Druze and who in turn all voted for all district virtual Maronite preserve. Leila Fawaz - An Occasion for War p. 218 confessional democracy, because the Muslim resentment of increasing representatives. Again, apart from historical record indicates the depth Christian wealth, and defensive the later shift to direct voting, the and magnitude of the investment in coalescence of Druze chiefs and method of filling the multi-sectarian political pluralism, and the high level peasants. allocations persisted. Administrative populations to independence and the Beqaa Valley to the east, and of the stakes in the early 21st century. Successful stabilization involved an councils succeeded one another representative government. To some rural districts in the northern and Lebanon’s democracy remains a work innovative representative institution for five decades, until the Ottomans degree, the mandate was colonialism southern extremities of the coastal in progress, riddled with imbalances, – a council elected from single and abolished the autonomous province in under new vocabulary, but France mountain range. This created today’s corruption, patron-client networks, multi-member districts with sectarian 1915, in the midst of World War I. was nonetheless under an explicit Lebanese territorial boundaries. Lebanon Renaissance Foundation Lebanese Democracy: Battered, Flawed, and Unmatched in the Arab World 06 07

stability, and was attentive to Shiite Confessional democracy in Confessional and Druze sensitivities. As early independent Lebanon proceeded on democracy as the Druze and Arab nationalist the basis of the 1926 Constitution in independent revolt in interior Syria in 1925-1926, operated according to the unwritten the reticence of many of Lebanon’s 1943 “National Pact” among Khoury, Lebanon, 1944-1975 Muslim and Druze leaders showed al-Solh and other politicians. Under divergence of interests. the pact the president would be a Vigorous political pluralism within and Maronite, the prime minister a Sunni, among the communities characterized The critical extra element was the and – an afterthought precipitated by mid-20th century Lebanon. This fraying of Franco-Maronite relations Shiite protests – the parliamentary was not simply a matter of electoral in the 1930s. Some Maronites speaker a Shiite. British General competition and generally peaceful always regarded the tutelage of the Edward Spears introduced the idea transfers of power. It also involved an Mandate as an insult in view of Mount of splitting parliamentary seats ethos of dynamic, free public debate Lebanon’s preceding half-century between Christians and Muslims and organizational activity beyond the of representative experience, but (including Druze) according to a state, which both the political class accepted it for the sake of a more 6:5 ratio. The Maronite president and most of the population conceived viable territory. The French attempt would retain preponderant executive as having only limited command of to enforce a tobacco monopoly in authority and appoint the Sunni prime society. The ethos grew naturally out 1934, however, alienated the Maronite minister, but in reality could not of the strengthening cosmopolitanism patriarch and small producers. Added exercise effective authority except of Beirut and the Maronite assertion to the 1932-1934 French suspension in partnership with a prime minister in Mount Lebanon through the 19th of the Lebanese constitution, such enjoying the confidence of the Sunni century. In the mid-20th century it challenges pushed some Maronite Muslim community. The marginal supported the flourishing diversity Fighters in the 1860 civil war politicians together with Sunnis in Christian advantage in parliament did of the Lebanese media and an conceiving an independent Lebanon, not mean much because governments elaborate range of autonomous civil balancing between the West and the depended on support from multi- society groups, from professional Third, the French commissioned deputies via an electoral college, and politics through its determination Arab world. In the early 1940s, after sectarian blocs of deputies mobilized guilds to family associations. Beirut the initial post-1920 Lebanese up to 1939, parliaments contained to stay indefinitely in Beirut, and its France’s June 1940 defeat by Nazi by shifting alignments of communal towered over the rest of the Arab representative council to suggest a a fluctuating minority of appointed oscillation between flexibility and Germany and the British military bosses (zu’ama – singular za’im). world in development of such social long-term constitution, and in 1926 members. high-handedness in dealing with occupation of Lebanon and Syria underpinnings for democracy, the confirmed a political order in line with Lebanon’s political bosses. By the in June 1941, the most influential more so in the 1960s and early 1970s the recommendations. After a brief The 1926 constitution featured an mid-1930s, many Sunni politicians of Maronite and Sunni leaders, Bishara as the media and civil society in experiment with a senate as well as executive president on the French the coastal cities, who strenuously al-Khoury and Riyadh al-Solh, Syria and Iraq passed under Baathist a lower house, a 1927 constitutional model, elected by a two-thirds opposed their incorporation into crystallized an understanding on dictatorship. amendment established a single- majority of the chamber of deputies. It Lebanon through the first fifteen power sharing. The final French chamber parliament, with electoral stipulated that “the sects be equitably years of the Mandate, became contribution to Lebanese communal Confessional democracy could be a laws defining more elaborate represented in public employment and habituated to Greater Lebanon. Their coalescence was the brief arrest rough game. President Bishara al- versions of the multi-communal in the composition of the Ministry.” Arab nationalism became tempered of the senior politicians of all the Khoury manipulated state patronage, allocation of seats pioneered in the Much of the original document, with by enjoyment of political influence significant communities in November client networks, and alliances of 1860s. In any constituency, all voters a major adjustment in 1989, persists that they could not expect in a 1943. zu’ama to gain a parliamentary (universal male suffrage) would vote into the 21st century, and it is the Greater Syria ruled from Damascus. With firm British backing and majority in the 1947 elections for all seats, whatever the sectarian oldest constitution in the Arab world. France guaranteed the Sunni elite reluctant French acquiescence, sufficient to override the constitution distribution. Up to 1934, according to France injected dynamism into a substantial political role, clipping Lebanon became an independent in favor of a second presidential term. electoral regulations, the voters chose Greater Lebanon’s multi-communal Maronite wings for the sake of country at the end of 1943. Busting the constitutional six-year Lebanon Renaissance Foundation Lebanese Democracy: Battered, Flawed, and Unmatched in the Arab World 08 09

reflection in the 1947 vote, and his large cross-sectarian political parties flexibility of the political class that of an opposition Maronite journalist. Muslim discontent, and sported a attempt to rewrite political rules led that could anchor a presidency was a the division was contained within a Chamoun’s government lost control of decent relationship with Nasser to his demise. Leading politicians, serious weakness. framework of civilian politics and the country beyond Mount Lebanon, while firmly guarding Lebanese including Maronite presidential fierce but peaceful debate for years and only a fortuitous U.S. military independence. Chamoun’s presidency aspirants, turned against him, the Chamoun tried to find an exit from – until external pressures became landing in Beirut because of the July thus ended with a second peaceful press became hostile, and he barely frustration with his own manipulation overwhelming. 1958 coup in Iraq ended the fighting. transition of executive authority and retained a parliamentary advantage of 1953 and 1957 parliamentary reaffirmation of the National Pact. in the 1951 elections. In 1952 his elections – gerrymandering In February 1958, neighboring Syria Having glimpsed the abyss, prime minister deserted him because constituency sizes and boundaries to joined Egypt in the United Arab Lebanon’s communal bosses Between 1958 and 1970, under of Khoury’s corrupt practices and undercut opponents, and pressure Republic (UAR), under Nasser’s took the opportunity offered by Chehab and his successor and ally, French High Commissioner Henrie Gouraud, attempts to muzzle the media. When , Lebanon moved to flanked by the Maronite Patriarch and the the army commander refused to mitigate communal imbalances. Grand Mufti, declares the formation of the State of Greater Lebanon on 1 September intervene against street protests, Chehab was conscious of the relative 1920. Khoury had to resign. Democracy deprivation of the Shiite Muslim prevailed. community, which became more obvious through the 1960s because of From 1952 to 1958, under President Shiite migration from the peripheries , the basic to Beirut and a Shiite demographic compromises of the National Pact growth rate higher than that of the came under strain. Chamoun faced Maronites and Sunni Muslims. By mainly Muslim demands that Lebanon the 1970s the Shiites had nosed past join the pan-Arab trend led by Gamal In February 1958, neighboring Syria joined Egypt in the United Arab Republic (UAR), under Nasser’s Maronites and Sunnis to become the command. Lebanese Arabist fervor for Lebanon to submit to Nasser soared, and spurred Christian Abdul Nasser of Egypt, thereby apprehension. largest single community, up from abandoning the understanding that 20 percent in 1932 to probably 25-30 The creation of the UAR, however, brought Lebanon to the brink of violence, and in May it went over Lebanon would balance between the brink with the killing of an opposition Maronite journalist. Chamoun’s government lost control percent. Muslims were undoubtedly the Arab world and the West. The of the country beyond Mount Lebanon, and only a fortuitous U.S. military landing in Beirut because now above 50 percent of the country, Riyadh al-Solh (L) and Bishara al-Khoury (R), president raised the temperature of the July 1958 coup in Iraq ended the fighting. even without the Druze, and all the architects of the National Pact. An unwritten agreement which came into by tilting toward the West. Sunni indicators showed that Christians being in the summer of 1943, the terms of Muslim politicians also questioned were down from 51 percent to not which reinforced the sectarian system of government begun under the French Mandate the Christian-Muslim demographic command. Lebanese Arabist fervor for American mediation to step back. much above 40 percent. Maronites and by formalizing the confessional distribution balance and privileged Christian Lebanon to submit to Nasser soared, The establishment of a resolution Sunnis were perhaps each a quarter of high-level posts in the government based on the 1932 census six-to-five ratio favoring access to administrative appointments and spurred Christian apprehension. satisfactory to public opinion in both of Lebanon’s population in the 1970s. Christians over Muslims. The terms of the in violation of the constitution. A commemorative plate at the Nahr al-Kalb Chamoun asserted Lebanese main camps and the swift recovery National Pact were believed to have been river, east of Beirut, marking the exodus of enunciated by the first cabinet in a statement Chamoun gave the vote to women in independence, but suspicion that of the political system demonstrated Chehab’s mild reformism the last remaining occupying armies from to the legislature in October 1943. 1952 and buttressed the independence Lebanon on 31 December 1946 during the he wanted to precipitate Western the underlying strength of multi- recognized the trend. He mandated term of Bishara al-Khoury http://www.country-studies.com/lebanon/ of the judiciary, but otherwise intervention to emulate Khoury in communal pluralism. Chamoun implementation of the constitutional the-national-pact.html had little room for maneuver in a securing a second term cost him served out his term until late 1958 and provision for Muslim-Christian deadlocked country. Angry reaction dearly. A majority of the elite was then departed, avoiding any disruption equality in administrative to his pro-Western foreign policy and patronage through security against him, including the Maronite of the constitution. Maronite army appointments. He also massively limit was an unfortunate precedent intensified his frustration. He lost agencies. He pushed leaders from all patriarch, and for many it had little commander became increased state spending in social to be set by the republic’s first head his initial parliamentary support in communities out of parliament but, to do with Arabism. The creation of president as a civilian to widespread infrastructure and development of state. Nonetheless, Khoury was part because he did not have the like Khoury, produced insuperable the UAR, however, brought Lebanon acclaim, having studiously kept the projects in the Shiite rural areas. The genuinely popular for several years, cross-sectarian social connections opposition in the press and the to the brink of violence, and in May it military out of the domestic conflict. measures were obvious precursors even if this received exaggerated that Khoury had enjoyed. The lack of streets. It was a tribute to the went over the brink with the killing Chehab promised reform to answer to a political debate on modest Lebanon Renaissance Foundation Lebanese Democracy: Battered, Flawed, and Unmatched in the Arab World 10 11

recalibration of shares in confessional democracy. On the other hand, the pluralism. Chehab carried over faire outlook on society, joined in Lebanon shone as a bright light of in 1989 and against Lebanon’s largest democracy, meaning Muslim- precedents in 1943 and 1958 showed scorn for civilian politicians from his parliament to defeat the Chehabist freedom in a region submerged in militia, the Christian Lebanese forces, Christian equality in parliament, that the elite could adjust when the military past. He resorted to officer candidate and elect Suleiman Franjieh autocracy. in 1990. Instead, the paroxysm of attention to the Shiite deficit, and viability of the state was at stake. friends, technocrat advisors, and from the conservative opposition, by violence brought American and Arab adjustment in the relative powers Further, the leading personality in military intelligence (the so-called a margin of one vote. Franjieh cut Eclipse intervention in favor of giving Syria a of president, prime minister, and the Shiite community in the 1960s, Deuxième Bureau) to bypass the back military intelligence, Lebanon’s 1975 - 2005 mandate to control and “stabilize” the parliamentary speaker. In the Iranian born cleric Musa al-Sadr, was prime minister and government and eyes and ears, and terminated the Lebanese. event, limited recalibration was anxious for a modus vivendi with the to get sympathizers into parliament activist state. He proved incompetent Lebanon’s constitutional apparatus delayed twenty years, until the 1989 other communities, and had excellent in the 1964 elections. Lebanese in coping with Palestinian weaponry, persisted through the dark years of To function at all, even under Syrian Taif Accord. Externally provoked personal relations with Maronite civilian politics, however, were not the machinations of his friend Hafez violence, militia cantons, and foreign hegemony. Lebanon needed an inflammation of Lebanese politics al-Assad, Syria’s tough new master, military interventions between 1975 updated constitutional understanding again intervened from the late 1960s, and the sectarian splintering of the and 1990. Three presidencies came among its communities. The Arab this time so dire as to bring 15 years Lebanese elite as Lebanon became an and went on schedule, the 1972 League and the United States of warfare on Lebanese territory after Israeli-Palestinian front. Nonetheless, parliament renewed itself repeatedly, sponsored a meeting of surviving 1972 1975, with comprehensive paralysis of the crucial turning point toward and multi-communal governments parliamentary deputies in the Saudi the Lebanese state. chaos preceded Franjieh. It was succeeded one another. Democratic town of Taif in October 1989. On the the surrender of state sovereignty politics, even the peculiar Lebanese positive side, the deputies agreed Whether or not communal bosses by President Helou and army chief variety, were of course impossible constitutional amendments that would have had the maturity to Emile Boustany in Palestinian refugee in the absence of law and order. The would allow confessional democracy recalibrate the confessional system camps and areas along the Lebanon- democratic ethos in society, however, to develop once Lebanon recovered in the 1970s if Lebanon had been less Israel border to armed Palestinian lived on. Beirut continued to host the its independence. First, the Taif squeezed from outside is an open After the 1967 Arab-Israeli war Lebanon never had the chance to adapt its democratic affairs, and factions through the November 1969 most diverse publishing and media accord shifted main executive power question. Without such maturity there we shall never know what might have been achieved. . activities in the Arab world. In the late from the Maronite president to the would have been a domestic crisis and 1980s, unions and other associations, multi-communal council of ministers, breakdown sooner or later. There was spiritual and political leaders. Sadr so easily corralled. Through the Whatever the implications, Franjieh’s including women’s groups, protested chaired rather than commanded by the complication of other demands was a respected religious figure 1960s, Maronite politicians with election was a peaceful transfer of in the streets against militia the Sunni prime minister. Second, it – Druze leader Kamal Jumblatt and could deliver his community, significant followings – Chamoun, power between contending political tyranny, demanding restored central replaced the Christian advantage in wanted sectarianism taken out of regardless of social ferment and the , and Raymond Edde blocs. The 1972 parliamentary poll democratic authority. parliament with Christian-Muslim Lebanese democracy so that a Druze influence of the radical left among the – opposed Chehab’s bigger state and expressed confessional democracy Popular sentiment and mobilization, equality, also enhancing the authority like himself was not blocked from Shiites. Most Shiites simply wanted a military intrusion in civilian affairs. warts and all, but without notable expressed through Lebanon’s still of the Shiite parliamentary speaker. acceding to top state offices. It was fair deal, and their relative deprivation Chehab also alienated leading Sunnis, presidential interference. Urban and dynamic civil society, gave critical In any case, because a significant a fair demand, certainly to Western was a blot against confessional especially his first prime minister, rural bosses mobilized clients, and momentum to General Michel Aoun’s number of Christian deputies ears, but Lebanese realities were and democracy. The essential point is . The pattern of Khoury manipulated clan loyalties. About 54 drive to terminate militia rule and are elected in Muslim majority are unlike realities in most Western that after the 1967 Arab-Israeli war and Chamoun thus repeated itself in percent of eligible voters participated Syrian occupation in 1988-1990. constituencies, and therefore reflect societies – the communities were Lebanon never had the chance to more subdued fashion. Under Helou, in this jamboree, comparable to Aoun, who was Lebanon’s Maronite Muslim politics, too much should and are real foci of interests, and real adapt its democratic affairs, and we a weaker president, the Chehabists turnout in present-day America. The army commander from 1984 to 1990, not be read into continuing nominal political compartments. shall never know what might have lost ground in the 1968 parliamentary multi-sectarian lists in multi-member drove a chain of events that brought Christian overrepresentation. Third, been achieved. poll. This was a fair reflection of wider constituencies – 99 seats from 26 the post-1975 war period to an end. the Taif accord explicitly provided On the one hand, in view of the public disillusion with a stalled and districts – indicated a degree of multi- However, the events led not to renewed for dialogue on ending confessional hostility Chehab’s methods and Chehab’s impetus to increase seamy Chehabist machine. sectarian cohesion. Results for an democracy and independence but allocations at some indefinite future policies aroused in much of the the social role of the state and to The coup de grace was the 1970 array of factions and small parties to recovery of state authority under date. Christian and Sunni elite by the address sectarian and geographical presidential vote. Conservative reflected the will of a populace used Syrian hegemony. Aoun lacked the early 1960s, it is easy to be skeptical imbalances aroused a fierce debate and leftist forces, supporters and to influence peddling and communal capability to prevail when he took his On the negative side, the deputies about the flexibility of confessional that itself demonstrated robust opponents of Lebanon’s laissez- segmentation. In the early 1970s, brigades to war against Syrian forces agreed to an open-ended Syrian Lebanon Renaissance Foundation Lebanese Democracy: Battered, Flawed, and Unmatched in the Arab World 12 13

military presence in Lebanon and Hariri’s ambition was to rebuild eastern Mediterranean. In the end, play the role Hariri intended without Between 1989 and 1998, it suited Syria project achieved enough by 1998 for to “distinctive” Syrian-Lebanese central Beirut and revive Lebanon’s the project implied escape from Syria such outcomes. For the medium- to downgrade the Maronite president Lebanese economic viability under relations. Special treaties would standing as the freewheeling and renewed confessional democracy, term, however, Hariri accepted that to give more space to Sunni and Shiite Syrian hegemony. The Syrian priority follow to implement “coordination commercial and service hub of the because Lebanon could not ultimately he had to adapt to Syrian supremacy leaders. In 1995, Assad personally shifted to conclusive containment of and cooperation.” There was no word in security affairs and to the venality overrode the Lebanese constitution Lebanese civilian politics, including on the minimal mutual respect of of Syrian officials and their Lebanese to extend the term of the pliable Elias Hariri, with real authority in the hands establishment of diplomatic relations sidekicks. He had no choice. The Hrawi, observing: “I don’t see altering of a battery of security agencies under as part of “distinctive relations” – United States steadfastly backed one or two clauses as being of such President Lahoud and Syria’s military Lebanon was to be a protectorate of Syrian control of Lebanon, and great importance to justify debate.” In intelligence chief in Lebanon. From Syria. The United States, as a patron Israeli bombardment, most notably 1998, it suited Syria to transplant the 1998 to 2000, Hariri was out of office, of the Taif accord, must bear primary in 1993 and 1996, relentlessly responsibility for what followed – 15 inflated Syria’s ally Hezbollah, and years of Lebanon’s subjugation to a strengthened its grip on the Shiite foreign dictatorship. The outcome was third of the population. Syrian particularly insulting to the country in military intelligence and its Lebanese that it coincided with the liberation of security associates cracked down on Eastern Europe. public dissent, mainly from Christian followers of the now-exiled General Lebanon only acquired a government Aoun, with detentions, abductions with the capability to reconstruct and torture, documented in detail by infrastructure and improve the Human Rights Watch. economy in late 1992, after Syria found its clients dangerously In both 1992 and 1996, Syrian military incompetent and impoverished intelligence oversaw predetermined multitudes launched a street results in the parliamentary polls, rebellion. In the meantime, the with a respected al-Nahar journalist Syrian regime made sure of its observing that Syria deserved an security interests. It had militias Oscar for systematic manipulation. disbanded except for Hezbollah, The West exhibited little concern: U.S. The lasted for 15 years and left around 150,000 people dead and a country in which faced Israeli occupation in ambassador Richard Jones expressed ruins southern Lebanon; it supervised the “pleasure” of his country with “a reorganization of the Lebanese very interesting” opening round in the army commander into the presidency, and Lahoud’s security apparatus army under a dependable new 1996 parliamentary elections, despite again breaking the constitution, and oversaw a vindictive campaign commander, Emile Lahoud; and it the blatant rigging of the Mount to have the new president, Emile against the former prime minister imposed the Brotherhood Treaty Lebanon vote. Whenever Hariri tried Lahoud, as the focus of a Syrian style and his aides, even accusing Hariri of for effective integration of the two to exercise a little political autonomy, security machine. Regardless of colluding with Israel by scheming to countries. In October 1992, Syria in security arrangements for southern the constitution, Lahoud exercised have the army curb Hezbollah. Lahoud accepted the billionaire Rafiq al- Lebanon or relations with the West, upgraded power derived from Syrian and his partners, however, proved by Hariri as Lebanon’s prime minister Syrian President Hafiz al-Assad backing and his influence over the 2000 that they had nothing productive despite hostility to his Saudi and A Bus filled with Palestinian fighters was crossing the Christian suburb of Ain al-Rimaneh summoned and rebuked him. military, because Syria now wanted to offer the Lebanese people, and when an exchange of fire took place leading to the death of 30 people. This was the spark which Western connections. Continuing unleashed 15 years of civil war. Above, the front page of An-Nahar newspaper following the Nothing illustrated the Syrian to reduce Maronite discontent and efforts by Syrian military intelligence Syrian hegemony required Lebanon’s incident which reads “Arafat appeals to the Arab Kings and Presidents --- Gemayel Accuses regime’s contempt for Lebanon’s restrict the Sunni prime minister. and Lahoud to manipulate the 2000 Israel of instigating the incident”. financial recovery and a front man in institutions more than its abuse of parliamentary elections against Hariri Beirut with international credibility. the remodeled Lebanese presidency. For Syria, Hariri’s reconstruction backfired badly. Lebanon Renaissance Foundation Lebanese Democracy: Battered, Flawed, and Unmatched in the Arab World 14 15

around Beirut and in much of November 2004 termination, hence elections postponed until May The Syrian ruling clique overreached. Lebanon. Druze leader Walid Jumblatt maintaining presidential cover of the 2005, because of the presidential In an angry response to Assad’s joined Maronite patriarch Nasrallah security apparatus. Coercing Hariri issue. Assad duly summoned a brushing aside their appeals Sfeir in defiance. In April 2001 the and the Lebanese parliament into resistant Lebanese prime minister that Syria not dictate Lebanon’s Syrians moved troops into Jumblatt’s approving such an outrageous move to Damascus on 27 August 2004, presidential affairs, the United fiefdom in the Shouf district, and in would humiliate both. A triumphant and flatly ordered him to have the States and France sponsored UN August Lahoud’s security apparatus Syrian-Lebanese security machine Lebanese government and parliament Security Council resolution 1559 of arrested hundreds of Christian would then be in a powerful position override the constitution in favor of 2 September 2004. The resolution activists, Aounists and others, while to manipulate results in parliamentary Lahoud. required removal of all foreign – President Assad sent extra forces across the border. Prime Minister Hariri complained that he knew nothing about these moves. In October 2003, Hariri had a nasty experience in Damascus when Assad presided over a kangaroo court at which Syrian officials accused the prime minister of Syrian troops entered Lebanon under the banner of the Arab Deterrent Force, an working against Syria. sponsored military intervention force whose majority was entirely composed of Syrian forces with token contributions from other Arab states. With the U.S.-led invasion and With the U.S.-led invasion and occupation of Iraq in March-April 2003, and an unprecedented occupation of Iraq in March-April American assertion of “democratization” in The elections in August-September could still kick. The security 2003, and an unprecedented American the Middle East, the ruling Assad family and its entourage in Damascus were determined to 2000 came when Damascus was apparatus, however, could not allow assertion of “democratization” in lock down Lebanon once and for all. preoccupied with its own presidential such a precedent to stand. the Middle East, the ruling Assad transition from Hafiz al-Assad to family and its entourage in Damascus his son Bashar after the death of Unlike his father, who floated above were determined to lock down read Syrian – forces from Lebanon, the former on 10 June. In addition, Lebanese factions as long as they Lebanon once and for all. Bashar al- a Lebanese presidential election the then-head of Syrian military behaved, the new Syrian president, Assad played the dangerous game free of foreign interference, and intelligence in Lebanon, removed Bashar al-Assad, picked sides of confronting the U.S. presence disbandment of all remaining private by Bashar al-Assad in 2002, did not in Lebanese politics. He aligned in Iraq, in order to force the Bush armies on Lebanese territory – read have good personal relations with himself with Lahoud and Hezbollah Administration into a regional bargain Hezbollah’s armed wing and Syria’s the Lebanese president. The vote secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah, with his regime. By mid-2004 the Palestinian clients. Baathist Syria’s showed that in such conditions the and treated Hariri coldly. Lahoud Sunni Arab jihadist insurgency in Iraq, inflated strategic self-importance led Lebanese popular mood might still devoted himself to sabotaging Hariri’s plainly encouraged by Damascus, it to gamble recklessly, inaugurating be able to express itself in reasonable economic policies, and the security and American difficulties with Iraqi a crisis that has still not reached a pluralist representation. Hariri swept machine devoted itself to cracking Shiites, particularly Muqtada al-Sadr, resolution in late 2008, but which a Sunni community infuriated about down on an increasingly diverse gave Assad confidence of expanding produced a reassertion of Lebanese subordination of the Sunni prime opposition. room for maneuver. democracy amid a Syrian campaign to minister since 1998. He also profited abort this reassertion. from Christian disenchantment with Israel’s May 2000 withdrawal from Locking-down Lebanon against any Lahoud. In late 2000, the Syrians had southern Lebanon under Hezbollah challenge on Syria’s western flank no option but to accept Hariri again pressure raised questions about the involved yet another infraction of Unlike his father, who floated above Lebanese factions as long as they behaved, the new Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, picked sides in Lebanese politics. He aligned himself with Lahoud and as head of government. Lebanon’s justification for Syria’s overbearing the Lebanese constitution, to extend Hezbollah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah. recalcitrant confessional democracy military and intelligence presence President Lahoud’s term beyond its Lebanon Renaissance Foundation Lebanese Democracy: Battered, Flawed, and Unmatched in the Arab World 16 17

CEDAR of mid-20th century confessional Otherwise, the election process democracy in important respects. received intensive, unprecedented REVOLUTION, 2005 Most notably, three clearly defined attention from international and local blocs with recognizably distinct monitors. There were problems with Neither Prime Minister Hariri nor a orientations sought parliamentary unfair constituency boundaries that majority of the Lebanese public took seats, in contrast to the amorphous were legacies of the 2000 election, but their humiliation by Bashar al-Assad jostling of personalities, patronage there was little prospect of a properly easily, and the intervention of the networks, and loose factions that agreed new electoral law without international community encouraged dominated before 1975. Hariri’s son dangerously lengthy postponement surging waves of protest in Beirut. Saad and Walid Jumblatt led a “14 President Lahoud got his three- March” grouping with cross-sectarian year extension, assisted by death Sunni, Christian, and Druze backing “What we dream threats against parliamentarians. that emphasized independence, of is a state that Vociferous condemnations of Lahoud Samir Kassir, a Lebanese journalist and civilian political preeminence, scholar and one of the leading figures of is owned by all across a wide part of the communal the Cedar Revolution. He was an outspoken and economic liberalism. General spectrum evidently unnerved the opponent of the Syrian regime’s hegemony Michel Aoun, returned from exile of the Lebanese political system. Kassir was its citizens and security machine. The 1 October also very active in the democracy movement and feeling sidelined by “14 March”, 2004 attempted assassination of the in the region. Kassir was assassinated headed a separate bloc based on its citizens only, on 2 June 2005 when a bomb under his Druze politician Marwan Hamade, car seat exploded. Kassir’s role in the his Free Patriotic Movement, which fortified by an who resigned his ministerial post to Cedar Revolution and his links to Syrian campaigned against “corruption” intellectuals and politicians- the Damascus independent protest the Lahoud extension, began Spring- who opposed the Assad regime were and put forward the most systematic what became a long series of political Rafik al-Hariri is considered the modern architects of post-war Lebanon, spearheading the reasons for his assassinations. reform policy document hitherto reconstruction process and establishing relations with leaders of the international community. judiciary and murders and murder attempts. Hariri The Hariri Foundation established in 1979, provided scholarships and loans to a huge number seen in Lebanon. The Shiite bloc resigned and quietly dedicated himself of Lebanese students to study in Lebanon and abroad. The Syrian regime, always tried to curb of Hezbollah and Amal reiterated an unshakable Hariri’s outreach to the Lebanese restricting him to part of the Sunni community. Hariri’s objection to an opposition victory in the May to the Syrian extension of Emile Lahoud’s term in 2004 put him on a collision course with Bashar The “Cedar Revolution” also involved the importance of “resistance” popular support, 2005 parliamentary elections, which al-Assad. a special association of Lebanon against Israel. Their grip on a Shiite a state that could have seriously challenged the On 14 February 2005, after leaving the House of Parliament in downtown Beirut, which he with the international community, community that still felt left behind, Syrian presence in Lebanon. was responsible for rebuilding, a car bomb targeted his convoy killing him and 22 others. His because it went hand in hand with including in parliamentary seating, assassination was the spark of the Independence Uprising, where a month later on 14 March more is not held by than a million Lebanese took to the streets to demand for the truth about the assassination and an global disgust regarding the Hariri was overwhelming. The election On 14 February 2005, Hariri was end to the Syrian military occupation. murder, expressed in establishment results broadly reflected the popular sectarianism or assassinated in a massive truck of the UN’s first ever murder inquiry, weight of the three blocs, as indicated patronage.” bombing that killed more than 20 under Security Council Resolution by the March demonstrations. The Samir Kassir people. In the aftermath, Bashar substantially larger than the half vulnerable, because Lebanon’s 1595 of 7 April 2005. Lebanese and “14 March” grouping took a modest The Dream Statement : al-Assad’s friends and opponents million assembled by Hezbollah, sectarian jealousies limited it and international pressures together majority of 72 out of 128 seats. An-Nahar January 28, 2004 in Lebanon respectively mobilized largely Shiites wishing to emphasize provided opportunities for its enemies. forced a resentful Syrian regime to Aoun and allies took 21 seats in the their crowds on 8 and 14 March, in their existence. Nonetheless, it expressed the pull its troops and visible intelligence Christian heartland, reflecting pent- of the poll. The top priority in the demonstrations that also reflected resurgence of the democratic ethos – operatives out of Lebanon by the end up Maronite frustration. Hezbollah charged environment was to produce a divide between Shiites on the one The impetus of the majority toward freedom for all to express themselves, of April 2005. and Amal gathered 35 seats, including a properly representative parliament hand and a coalescence of Sunnis, freedom from hegemony, spurred to parade their popular capability, Christian allies in Shiite majority as quickly as possible. The monitors Christians and Druze on the other. by the dramatic provocations and to participate in decision taking Lebanon thus emerged from three constituencies. At more than one- all judged the elections generally free, The 14 March crowd, demanding between August 2004 and February roughly according to their popular decades of suspended democracy. The quarter of parliament this was as fair fair, and appropriately conducted. The immediate release from Syrian 2005, received the shorthand label weight. There was nothing else like May-June 2005 parliamentary poll, a representation as the Hezbollah-led Aounists complained of “14 March” hegemony and the security machine, “cedar revolution.” From the outset it in the Arab world of the early 21st the first free of foreign steerage since group would have gotten in Western abuses, but they got results they numbered about one million, the “revolution” was fragile and century. 1972, was an improvement on those elections. never could have dreamed of under Lebanon Renaissance Foundation Lebanese Democracy: Battered, Flawed, and Unmatched in the Arab World 18 19

Syrian hegemony. Hezbollah undercut murders of critics of the Syrian Regression toward politics sectarian rift. Hezbollah, Amal, and Aoun in the Baabda constituency regime, the UN investigation of the constrained by fear and intimidation, Michel Aoun, who headed Christians as part of a momentarily expedient Hariri assassination progressed and reasserted Syrian influence, suspicious of the Sunni and Druze understanding with Walid Jumblatt, vigorously. After the detention of began with the warfare between leaders of “14 March,” sponsored and ordered its followers to vote four Lebanese security chiefs in Hezbollah and Israel in July/August a protest encampment in central against Aoun’s candidates. Aoun, August 2005, UN inquiry reports of 2006, triggered by Hezbollah’s 12 Beirut. They demanded a blocking however, had no problem making October and December 2005 formally July raid into Israel to capture Israeli and therefore commanding third in his own deal with Hezbollah some fingered the Syrian-Lebanese security soldiers. Hezbollah turned the a “national unity government.” In months later. machine as the prime suspect. By tables on the Lebanese government, June 2007, the UN Security Council early 2006, indictments and a special demonstrating that it – not the confirmed the special murder Rafiq al-Hariri’s former close tribunal, overriding both Lebanese advisor Fouad Siniora formed a parliamentary paralysis and threats new government based on the of violence from Syria’s president, parliamentary outcome in July 2005. expressed to UN Secretary-General Syria’s allies, meaning Hezbollah, Ban Ki-moon in Damascus on 24 April Amal, and representatives of 2007. President Lahoud, received a minority A nasty rebellion of Sunni Islamic of cabinet posts – one short of the jihadists in the Nahr al-Bared one-third giving them a veto on refugee camp north of Tripoli came government decisions. Hence the hard on the heels of these Syrian parliamentary majority could govern, A nasty rebellion of Sunni Islamic jihadists in the Nahr al-Bared refugee camp north of Tripoli threats. Triangulation of multiple came hard on the heels of these Syrian threats. Triangulation of multiple sources of evidence and the part of the minority that indicated Syrian military intelligence sponsorship of the rebellion.The outbreak lasted from May to sources of evidence indicated Syrian agreed to join the cabinet received its September 2007, and severely stretched the Lebanese army. military intelligence sponsorship of fair share. Michel Aoun, dissatisfied the rebellion.The outbreak lasted with the cabinet portfolios on offer, from May to September 2007, and declined to enter the government and In November 2006, Syria’s Lebanese Siniora held that the question did not severely stretched the Lebanese led the parliamentary opposition. As Gebran Tueni, Editor-in-Chief of the Leading An-Nahar newspaper and member of the Lebanese allies, headed by a Hezbollah buoyed arise because he did not accept the army. Following a lull through 2006, Parliament. Tueni was a staunch opponent of Syrian meddling in Lebanese politics. His newspaper for the sectarian dimension, there was was a platform for all the pro-democracy activists to express themselves under the Syrian by the “divine victory” of holding out resignations. The UN Security Council there was also a new procession of a carefully agreed allocation of cabinet occupation. Shortly after his return from a trip from France, Tueni was assassinated when a against Israel and careless of the supported Siniora, unanimously political murders, from the gunning roadside bomb targeted his armored car on his way to work. During the March 14 rally Tueni posts among communities, within the addressed the crowds with his famous pledge. accompanying wreckage, closed stressing the international legitimacy down of “14 March” parliamentarian constitutionally mandated balance of in on the prospective UN murder of the democratically established and minister Pierre Gemayel in half Christian, half non-Christian. tribunal. When the government Lebanese government against the November 2006 to the blowing-up international tribunal appeared to be a institutions of a democratic state – moved to approve the protocol of a Syrian backed campaign to destroy of army captain Wissam Eid, head In retrospect, renewed Lebanese close and real prospect, promising to decided on war or peace for Lebanon. mixed international/Lebanese court, it. Speaker Berri meantime refused of communications investigations independence, state sovereignty, and free Lebanese politics from a crippling The Party of God also reemphasized all pro-Syrian ministers instantly to convene parliament, preventing in the Hariri case, in January 2008. exercise of democratic freedoms impunity for political murder that its hegemony over the Shiite resigned. The government still had a the parliamentary majority from All targeted persons actually or achieved their peak between mid 2005 had prevailed since the late 1970s. community, and put its weaponry, two-thirds quorum and endorsed the confirming the government decision potentially bothersome to the and mid 2006. All were flawed, and A national dialogue among senior communications system, and tribunal. Hezbollah, parliamentary on the tribunal. Parliament thus Syrian regime. Victims included their “14 March” standard-bearers politicians in early 2006 also put territorial sway in large tracts of the speaker and Amal leader Nabih Berri, became eviscerated through 2007, three legislators, a novel method failed to reach out to the Aounists and Hezbollah on the defensive regarding country beyond any right of criticism, and President Lahoud all declared while the government and its Sunni of whittling down a parliamentary Shiites by promoting serious reform its private army and defiance of the which it menacingly dismissed as that the government was illegitimate prime minister persevered in a state majority. of a deficient state and electoral right of the state to monopoly of force. “serving the Zionist enemy.” Behind because Shiite ministers no longer of siege. These conditions, added apparatus, but the country seemed Hezbollah loomed its patrons and participated, and hence there was not to Hezbollah’s highhandedness, When President Lahoud’s extended on an upward path. Despite further arms suppliers, Syria and Iran. a communal balance. Prime Minister exacerbated the Sunni/Shiite term expired in November 2007, Lebanon Renaissance Foundation Lebanese Democracy: Battered, Flawed, and Unmatched in the Arab World 20 21

deadlock over a successor led to a thus had no president, no effective dissenting Lebanese, and the seven-month presidential vacuum. government, and no sitting parliament. government promptly rescinded its There are many concerns about the Weighing lebanese Lacking options, “14 March” proposed offending decisions. parliamentary elections scheduled for pluralism in the army commander Michel Suleiman, In both the international and early 2009. The foremost is how there well connected with Hezbollah and domestic arenas, Lebanon’s “Cedar Hezbollah’s May 2008 coup broke can be a free, fair choice and a robust 21st century Revolution” lost ground. The new the political deadlock in favor of free debate if one party is armed to French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, Syria and the opposition, but the the teeth and controls a large portion Even with much of its territory beyond shifted French policy from supporting “14 March” camp remained in the of the country, and if political murder state authority, a flawed electoral Lebanese pluralism to pampering game and Hezbollah permanently continues to overshadow the whole system, and a heavily corrupted state Syrian autocracy. The Hariri murder alienated the great bulk of Lebanon’s arena. The US and France, having machine, Lebanon ranks far above inquiry and tribunal seemed to lose Sunni/Druze “third.” Qatar and the promoted international justice and all other Arab states in the 2008 all traction after the supposedly Arab League sponsored a Lebanese encouraged the “14 March” camp to Economist Intelligence Unit Index decisive UN Security Council move conference in Doha, which agreed stick its neck out in early 2005, have a of Democracy. Lebanon features in June 2007, causing increasing Michel Suleiman’s election as moral obligation in early 2009 to heed as a hybrid of democratic and despondency in the “14 March” president, opposition veto capability the consequences of backtracking authoritarian elements, just short of coalition. Given that there was weighty in a “national unity government,” on justice and engaging the Syrian “flawed democracy,” with virtually evidence against identified suspects and a new parliamentary election ruling clique. Fear, despondency, the same score as Turkey across five by early 2006, the chain-dragging law for 2009 that returned to the and a triumphant neighboring components of democracy (electoral into 2008 could only fuel suspicion small district constituencies of the autocracy may well bring the curtain process and pluralism, functioning of that international players were more 1960 law. On the one hand, President down on Lebanon’s brief renewed government, political participation, interested in exploiting the case as Suleiman proved predictably solicitous independence. Grudging Syrian political culture, and civil liberties). a bargaining chip than in truth and of Syrian interests in his first months, diplomatic recognition of Lebanon Lebanon ranks 89th out of 167 justice. Within Lebanon, Hezbollah no-one dared further challenge the is irrelevant – if in full health and countries. The next Arab states, Iraq Above March 8 fighters on the streets of piled up armaments in special military ‘state beyond the state’ of Hezbollah’s undeterred, Bashar al-Assad’s and Jordan, come 116th and 117th. Beirut zones closed to the Lebanese state “national resistance,” and the Sunni regime will make an embassy a Syria is a dismal 156th, beaten by On 8-9 May, Hezbollah and allied militias and extended an unauthorized secret stronghold of Tripoli became wracked high commissariat and secret police Zimbabwe and Equatorial Guinea. seized mainly Sunni West Beirut. The Party of God used heavy weapons in the mainly Druze phone system even into the mountains by violence plainly manipulated center. In the cruel, barren Arab political hills in its “operation smash the balance” north of Beirut. from outside Lebanon. On the other context, Lebanon exhibits democratic (amiliyat kasr al-tawazun). It demonstrated conclusively that it would deploy deadly hand, Fouad Siniora remained In the end, if the majority of Lebanese traditions that are worth buttressing. force against dissenting Lebanese, and the In early May 2008, Lebanon’s prime minister, the “14 March” want to put themselves in the hands government promptly rescinded its offending decisions. government responded with a parliamentary majority retained a of local demagogues and a Syria Several aspects of Lebanon’s forlorn, despairing bid to stop the majority of cabinet seats, which had that ranks near the rock bottom of contemporary circumstances deserve rot. It transferred the Hezbollah (incredibly) been in question, and the every global index of freedom and concluding observations. Syria, in the chancy hope that he aligned officer in charge of Beirut electoral arrangement was roughly human rights that is their democratic First, two cross-sectarian alignments, might develop autonomy in office. airport security and decided to probe neutral. Small constituencies (using privilege. They will throw out their with distinct ideological and foreign The opposition accepted Suleiman’s Hezbollah’s private communications. the administrative qada) answered the pluralism together with its defects. policy orientations, have emerged candidacy but refused his election On 8-9 May, Hezbollah and allied Christian grievance about swamping History has precedents. Lebanese since 2005, especially since the until they got their “national unity militias seized mainly Sunni West of Christian rural majorities in might ponder the twilight of Weimar Maronite General Aoun joined the government” and veto power. The Beirut. The Party of God used large districts, for example in the Germany in the early 1930s. Only Hezbollah-led “8 March” in February Siniora cabinet assumed presidential heavy weapons in the mainly Druze hinterland of Sunni Tripoli, but failure the decisive decay or disintegration 2006. “14 March” and “8 March” functions during the vacancy, in hills in its “operation smash the to implement a partially proportional of the present Syrian regime, or at present the voter with clear choices, line with the constitution, but the balance” (amiliyat kasr al-tawazun). system has made it difficult for least the prospect thereof, can secure an advance on the confused factional opposition warned it to do no more It demonstrated conclusively that it Shiites discontented with Hezbollah to Lebanese pluralism and induce the politics of pre-1975. than manage routine affairs. Lebanon would deploy deadly force against achieve representation. allies of Syria and Iran to respect it. Lebanon Renaissance Foundation Lebanese Democracy: Battered, Flawed, and Unmatched in the Arab World 22 23

March 14 demonstration 2005

Second, Lebanon remains a collection will largely head in one direction and communities with the lower house democracy will be imperiled. There Security Council resolution 1757 can space to a party like Hezbollah while of communities, with communal Shiites in the other, the distribution of parliament freed from sectarian can be no properly free politics as help restore an independent judiciary resisting total minority hijacking of politics represented by sectarian of the Christian vote will probably be allocations; and stronger district long as “14 March” politicians face to Lebanon. the country’s affairs. Outsiders have organizations like Hezbollah, Amal, decisive. authorities. death lists. a duty to assist Lebanon uphold this the Lebanese Forces, the Phalange Fifth, Lebanon cannot exist as a delicate golden mean of democracy. and so on. Lebanese politics will Third, at some point in the not too However, neither a proper census Further, the July 2005 murder decent society without a tolerant continue to differ from those of distant future, the credibility of nor political innovations are possible attempt against Defense Minister pluralism. It has to accommodate an more homogeneous societies. As parliamentary sectarian allocations until Rafiq al-Hariri’s murderers are Elias al-Murr, who had fallen out absolutist party, Hezbollah, which noted in the description of the 2005 will require a credible census, under apprehended. In the meantime, there with Syrian military intelligence, presently dominates but falls greatly election results and government close UN supervision, along with is no better Lebanese democracy in and the September 2008 killing of short of monopolizing the Shiite formation, numerical democracy is decisions on participation of Diaspora prospect than the present democracy, Druze opposition personality Saleh community and proclaims, according quite well served anyway in today’s Lebanese. All sorts of means are which demands full state sovereignty Aridi, demonstrate the perils that to billboards: “We are always right Lebanon – on the basis of Sunni/ conceivable to update confessional and state monopoly of force. This await members of the “8 March” (daiman ‘andna al-haqq).” In a Druze, Christian, and Shiite “thirds” democracy: a presidential council with democracy, this sovereignty, and this camp who become inconvenient. democracy people who are “always that reasonable estimates and a rotating chair; ending the communal monopoly of force must be upheld. And it is not just political life that right” are sometimes difficult to competitive demonstrations indicate monopolies on the three top offices is at stake. Given that chaos and accommodate. Their attitude implies are demographic reality. Also, the of state, with an understanding Fourth, no democracy and no political Syrian hegemony have terrorized and determination to coordinate everyone winner-take-all electoral system that no community will have more pluralism can coexist indefinitely with corrupted the Lebanese legal system to the “right” view and grudging means that the inadequate Shiite than one at any one time; partial political murder. If the UN murder into impotence, only the successful acknowledgment of pluralism only share of parliamentary seats has not proportional voting for parliament to inquiry and tribunal avoid pursuing operation of the mixed Lebanese- as long as the balance of forces in fact cheated the Hezbollah/Amal represent significant minorities within the masterminds, political murder international tribunal authorized compels acknowledgment. Lebanese alliance. For 2009, given that Sunnis communities; a senate to represent will be triumphant in Lebanon and under Chapter VII of the UN Charter in political life since 2005 has given fair Lebanon Renaissance Foundation Lebanese Democracy: Battered, Flawed, and Unmatched in the Arab World 24 25

Chronology

1845: Appointed multi-communal 1943: Sixth chamber of deputies 1970-1975: Suleiman Franjieh elected advisory councils for qa’immaqams of abrogates mandate, French briefly president, and cuts back Chehab’s 1998: Syria selects army commander 2005: Assassination of Hariri, “Cedar Ottoman Mount Lebanon. imprison communal leaders, and interventionist state. Hafiz al-Assad Emile Lahoud as president, supports Revolution,” Syrian withdrawal, first Lebanon achieves independence stabilizes Syria, and looks to influence de facto buttressing of presidency free parliamentary elections since 1864-1915: Indirectly elected under ‘national pact’ understanding Lebanon. Mounting external pressure as core of a Syrian style security 1972, first ever UN murder inquiry administrative council of Ottoman among communal leaders – oral on Lebanon, and internal friction. machine. Lahoud forces Hariri out of fingers Syrian/Lebanese security autonomous province of Mount arrangement for sectarian operation office. machine amid further political Lebanon. of the 1926 constitution. 1972: Seventh and last parliamentary murders. election under the “First Lebanese 2000: Shiite Hezbollah movement 1920: Inauguration of French rule 1948: President Bishara al-Khoury Republic.” compels Israel to withdraw from 2006: Outburst of hostilities between under League of Nations mandate, gets constitutional amendment to southern Lebanon. Hafiz al-Assad Hezbollah and Israel. and French extension of boundaries allow him an extended term. 1975-1990: Breakdown of the dies, and succeeded by Bashar al- of Mount Lebanon to create modern Lebanese state with prolonged, multi- Assad as president of Syria. Rafiq Lebanese territorial state. 1952: Bishara al-Khoury forced dimensional warfare in Lebanon. al-Hariri scores impressively in 2007: UN Security Council resolution out of office, smooth constitutional Constitutional framework and Lebanese parliamentary election 1757 establishes mixed international/ 1920-1926: Indirectly elected multi- installment of President Camille pluralist ethos persist nonetheless. despite hostility of Syrian/Lebanese Lebanese murder tribunal. More communal representative council Chamoun. New president introduces security machine, and returns as murders. Hostilities erupt between (electorate voting for electoral college, vote for women. 1989: Ta’if agreement to adjust prime minister. Lebanese army and Fath al-Islam which then elected members). constitution inaugurates “Second jihadists. Presidential vacuum 1953-1957: Gerrymandered Lebanese Republic.” Executive power 2000-2004: Rising discontent with when Lahoud’s term ends without a 1926: Lebanese constitution parliamentary elections as Chamoun shifted from president to council of Syrian presence among Christians, successor. introduced, with bicameral parliament struggles to assert authority. ministers. Druze, and Sunnis after Israeli (chamber of deputies and senate). departure. Hezbollah, Syria’s ally, 2008: Crisis between “Cedar First chamber of deputies appointed. 1958: Brief violent breakdown of 1990-2005: Lebanese state restored cements supremacy among Shiites. Revolution” government and Lebanese state. Pressures come from under Syrian hegemony. Hariri faces continuous friction with parliamentary majority and 1927: Change to single chamber creation of the United Arab Republic, President Lahoud and the security Hezbollah-led opposition culminates parliament, with senate abolished. and Chamoun’s interest in an 1991: Imposed “Brotherhood Treaty” machine. in 8 May Hezbollah takeover of West extended term. US mediation enables between Syria and Lebanon. Beirut. Arab League promotes Doha 1929: Six year non-renewable elite to step back from the brink. 2004: Bashar al-Assad forces Hariri agreement on army commander term fixed for president. First 1992: Parliamentary election under to agree to an extended term for Michel Suleiman as new president, parliamentary elections held. 1958-1964: Presidency of Fouad Syrian steerage. Rafiq al-Hariri Lahoud. The US and France sponsor national unity government, and new Chehab, with mild social welfare becomes prime minister, and UN Security Council resolution 1559 parliamentary election law for 2009. 1932: First and only Lebanese census. orientation and mitigation of launches reconstruction program. demanding Syrian military withdrawal 1932-1934: Mandatory power communal imbalances in the from Lebanon. suspends constitution. bureaucracy. 1995: Syria commands extension of presidency of Elias Hrawi. 1934: First direct elections to 1967: Arab defeat in Arab-Israeli parliament. war leads to Palestinian assertion in Lebanon, Israeli military incursions, 1939-1943: Mandatory power and consequent Christian-Muslim suspends constitution. tensions. Lebanon Renaissance Foundation Lebanese Democracy: Battered, Flawed, and Unmatched in the Arab World 26 27

Biography end notes

1-Sources for sectarian demographic 2-See the official UN transcript of 3-In al-Hayat (London and Beirut), William Harris is professor of politics trends for the period since the 24 April 2007 Ban Ki-moon 21 May 2007, the respected at the University of Otago, New Lebanon’s first and only census meeting with Bashar al-Assad, journalist Muhammad Shuqayr, Zealand. He is the author of «The in 1932 include Chamie, J. pages 3 and 4. President Assad told with information from Palestinian Levant: A Fractured Mosaic,» which “Differentials in Fertility: Lebanon, the secretary-general: “Instability informants in northern Lebanon, won an outstanding academic title 1971,” Population Studies 31:2 would intensify if the Special named Syrian intelligence officers award from Choice magazine, and (1977), 365-382; Faour, M. “The Tribunal were established. This who were coordinating the Fath al- «Faces of Lebanon: Sects, Wars, and Demography of Lebanon: A was particularly the case if the Islam jihadist group in Tripoli and Global Extensions.» He is currently Reappraisal,” Middle Eastern Tribunal were established under Nahr al-Bared. Al-Sharq al-Awsat working on a History of Lebanon for Studies 27:4 (1991), 631-641; Faour, Chapter 7 of the Charter. This could (London), 9 June 2007, reported Oxford University Press. M. “Religion, Demography, and easily ignite a conflict which would from “Jordanian judicial sources” Politics in Lebanon,” Middle Eastern result in civil war [in Lebanon] and that Fath al-Islam leader Shakir Studies 43:6 (2007), 909-921; and provoke divisions between Sunni al-Abssi ran a training camp in Harris, W. The New Face of Lebanon and Shi’a from the Mediterranean Syria “to house and equip suicide (Princeton: Markus Wiener, 2006), to the Caspian Sea … If the Tribunal bombers and elements involved in 82-86. Data come from fertility was achieved via Chapter 7, it would al-Qaeda before their dispatch to records and population surveys, have grave consequences that could battle in Iraq,” this before he moved for example the 1970 Lebanese not be contained within Lebanon.” to Lebanon from Syria in 2005. Al- government survey of 30,000 On the democratically elected Nahar (Beirut), 22 and 23 August households, a population count Lebanese parliamentary majority, 2007, interviewed former prisoners from the 1988 Hariri Foundation President Assad observed that “the in Syrian jails on Syrian intelligence food distribution program, and Syrian people hated the March 14 mobilization of imprisoned jihadists William Harris Lebanese government national Movement.” (“Have Syrian jails become a ‘land family surveys in 1996 and 2004. In of support’ for jihad in Iraq and the first decade of the twenty-first Lebanon?”). century, Christians are probably about 35% of the Lebanese population, with Maronites 20- 25%; Shiites have become 30-35%; Sunnis represent 25-30%; and Druze are around 5%. The Shiite natural increase rate has declined since the 1980s, and Muhammad Faour demonstrates that northern rural Sunnis have the highest fertility rate today. Differentials within communities are probably as high as between communities. 1701 Pennsylvania Avenue, Suite 300, Washington, DC 20006 | phone +1 202 465 4352 | fax +1 202 386 6394 [email protected] | www.lebanonrenaissance.org