Gerald Knaus Why ThEy LOOk WEST – , POVERTy AND ThE EU

Gerald Knaus - ESI’s founding chairman. After having studied in Oxford, Brussels and Bologna, he taught economics at the State University of Chernivtsi in Ukraine and spent five years working for NGOs and international organisations in and . From 2001 to 2004, he was the director of the Lessons Learned Unit of the EU Pillar of the UN Mission in . Gerald Knaus has published many articles and reports that have triggered wide public debates, including "Travails of the European Raj" on Bosnia (2003) and "Member State Building and the Helsinki Moment" on the EU’s role in the Balkans (2004). In 2011, he co-authored, alongside Rory Stewart, the book “Can Intervention Work?” He has also co-authored more Gerald Knaus than 60 ESI reports as well as scripts for 12 TV documentaries on South East . He is a founding member of the on Foreign Relations and Associate Fellow at the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy at Harvard University’s Kennedy School, where he was a Visiting Fellow in 2010/2011 lecturing on state building and intervention

dear friends, geopolitics and the average household

in recent months large numbers of ukrainians focus for one moment on the situation of braved first the cold, and then snipers, ordinary citizens, the lives of average protesting and waving the -spangled households living between lviv and kharkiv. the flag of europe. this has angered leaders in the most basic fact about ukraine is that it is poor. kremlin, leading to the dramatic confrontation in fact, ukraine is one of the poorest countries over crimea. it also left many in the eu in europe; only , and armenia confused how to respond. are poorer. the gross national income per Should the eu, or future ukrainian head in ukraine is lower today than it is in governments, withdraw the promise of deeper kosovo, which is the poorest country in the integration in order to placate a grim and balkans. threatening russia, as some in the eu are arguing behind closed doors? is ukraine's still Country 2012 % undefined "european perspective" worth the eu (28 countries) 33,641 100.00 risk of offending russia? 10,830 32.19 or have ukrainians, by defending their right to bulgari (poorest eu member) 6,840 20.33 macedonia 4,620 13.73 ratify an association agreement with the eu – kosovo 3,600 10.70 and to pursue deeper integration in the future ukraine 3,500 10.40 – in fact kept open the single most promising georgia 3,270 9.72 path for their country to transform itself for the moldova 2,070 6.15 benefit of its ordinary citizens? Table 1: GNI per capita current value of the U.S. dollars at * original text, with authorization for the publication market exchange rates in 2012 taken from the site evropske inicijative za stabilnost (european Stability initiative – eSi) 74 The New century No 07 -May2014 in a new rumeli observer - Why they look West (russia, venezuela); chile; and four european – ukraine, poverty and the eu – you find a table countries: estonia, latvia, and . of the forty-six richest countries in the world in even in 2002 many countries that appeared 2012. to be rich or poor is, of course, a matter among the rich for the first time then had of comparison. here we take as reference point focused for years on joining the eu the richest country in the world and consider countries to be prosperous if they have at least The story of one eighth the gross national income per head of the frontrunner. in 2012 the richest country once an eu member joins the club of rich in the world was norway, followed by nations it remains there, despite severe crises Switzerland and denmark . later. this holds true for countries that were poor five decades ago (, Spain, greece) The most exclusive club of countries in but remain in the club of the prosperous top the world forty. this is not obvious: other countries, which remained on their own, such as mexico or a few things are remarkable in this list. argentina, have dropped out. first, most of the forty-six countries were take the case of greece. its recent economic already prosperous in global terms half a plight has been seen by some as evidence of the century ago (north america, Western europe, limits of the 's ability to bring Japan, australia). most emerging economies are about convergence. however, look at the story not yet members of this club: not china, not of the greek economy, seen through gross brazil, not india, not turkey. russia barely makes national income per head since 1980 (greece the list. joined the eu in 1981). becoming prosperous relative to traditionally greece's gni dropped in the first years after wealthy countries is very hard. it takes decades accession, then grew sharply, most of stable growth. Still only a minority of the spectacularly after 2000. between 2010 and world's population lives in these prosperous 2012 it dropped again. and yet, this is still a states: in 2012 about 1,3 billion people , u crisis in a country that has remained one of the odnosu na globalnu populaciju od 7 milijardi. most prosperous in the world, and the richest in the balkans. dout of an estimated global population of 7 billion. godina BDP Second, all but two members of the european union are on this list, members of the club of 1980 6,190 1985 4,780 the world's rich countries. there are only two 1990 8,590 exceptions: bulgaria and . 1995 11,750 2000 12,460 third, the most promising strategy to become 2005 21,400 part of this exclusive club is to make the effort 2010 26,410 to join the european union. to see this, 2012 23,260 compare the 2012 list of the world's richest Table 2: GNI per capita Greece 1980 – 2012 countries with that of 2002 .

the 2002 list contains forty-one countries, historically, rich countries have formed home to 1.1 billion people. in the decade contiguous geographical blocks. this remains between 2002 and 2012, mexico and lebanon true. growth spreads through intense contact, fell out of the list of the prosperous. only seven openness and exchange between neighbours. newcomers broke through: two petrol states

The New century No 07 -May 2014 75 Why the protestors on Maidan are right however, no one interested in the welfare and long-term stability of the ukrainian people can the experience of eu integration and prosperity expect them to renounce the possibility to has strong implications for enlargement policy. follow in the path of poland or the baltic states when it comes to eu integration. this also holds the protestors on maidan, kiev's central square, true for moldovans and georgians. it is also to were right: the most promising strategy for be hoped that the eu as a whole will respond ordinary ukrainians to live a better life is not to by following the recommendations to offer a stay on the sidelines or to look east, as they had long-term membership perspective, as recently done since gaining independence in 1991, but proposed by enlargement commissioner Stefan to integrate with their Western neighbours. fule and the european people's party. as the eu integration is not a magic wand. in the case epp declared in dublin on 7 march, ukraine „ has of greece it has taken a generation to become a european perspective and may apply to prosperous. eu integration also does not become a member of the union .“ prevent future crises. but as a medium-term this is not a matter of geopolitics, spheres of strategy to catch up it has worked, again and influence, or the prestige of autocratic leaders. again, for countries from the atlantic coast to holds out the prospects the baltic Sea. this is because it is a process for better lives for millions of households. no based on openness, on meeting demanding one can legitimately ask ukrainians, moldovans, standards, on learning from the most successful and georgians to give up their european economies in the world and on receiving perspective just to please the kremlin. it would feedback from them. be far too big a sacrifice, with consequences for ukrainians, like finns or austrians during the the next generation. cold War, might well decide to remain neutral in terms of military alliances. is also unlikely to offer ukraine the kind of security guarantee it has offered to the baltic States.

76 The New century No 07 -May 2014