Cumulus Consultants Ltd Changing livestock numbers in the UK Less Favoured Areas – an analysis of likely biodiversity implications Final Report for the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds Issue: 3.0 Report No: CC-P-545 Date of Issue: 4 December 2012 Changing livestock numbers in the UK Less Favoured Areas – an analysis of likely biodiversity implications Final Report prepared for the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds Report prepared by: Paul Silcock Jonathan Brunyee Jeni Pring Report reviewed by: Paul Silcock Cumulus Consultants Ltd, The Palmers, Wormington Grange, Wormington, Broadway, Worcestershire. WR12 7NJ Telephone: +44 (0)1386 584950 Email: [email protected] Internet: http://www.cumulus-consultants.co.uk Front cover picture credits: Mixed cattle (Andy Hay, rspb-images.com); Curlew (Chris Gomersall, rspb- images.com); Sheep (Andy Hay, rspb-images.com), Welsh Black (Cumulus Consultants). Changing livestock numbers in the UK LFA – Final Report i Cumulus Consultants Ltd - CC-P-545 Issue 3.0 Date: 4 December 2012 Executive Summary Since the decoupling of subsidies in 2005, under the last Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reform, there has been a reduction in the total number of cattle and sheep in the UK. A number of reports have highlighted concerns that the rate of livestock losses has been greatest in the most disadvantaged areas and there has been a debate on the effects of reduced grazing activity on upland habitats and wildlife. However data has been lacking on the detailed pattern of livestock losses across different regions of the four countries of the UK and the potential implications of these changes for habitats and species. This research explores the changes in cattle and sheep grazing in the Less Favoured Areas (LFA) within England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland and assesses the potential implications for biodiversity. The focus of the work is an analysis of June Survey data for the LFA at the finest level possible, together with a review of literature and site condition data, and a survey of expert opinion. A series of case studies illustrate the different circumstances from around the UK and explore the linkage between changes in livestock numbers, grazing regimes, habitats and species. There has been a general reduction in grazing livestock numbers in the LFA across the UK over the past 10 years or so, with the decoupling of payments in 2005 reinforcing this trend. This follows a period during which dairy cattle have fallen in number and beef cattle and sheep numbers have increased, largely in response to the availability of headage payments. The reduction in sheep numbers over the past 10 years has been much greater than that for cattle across the UK. Cattle numbers have reduced more sharply in the Severely Disadvantaged Areas (SDA) compared to the Disadvantages Areas (DA), however there is a less clear-cut pattern for sheep numbers. The greatest reductions in LFA cattle and sheep numbers have occurred in Scotland and Northern Ireland, followed by Wales then England. Northern Ireland has experienced the greatest decrease in LFA beef cows (-19%) and breeding ewes (-34%), although Scotland has also seen a significant reduction in breeding ewes in particular. The number of LFA dairy cows decreased most in Wales (-25%). Overall grazing pressure in the LFA has reduced most in Scotland (-16.3%), followed by Wales (-14.6%), Northern Ireland and England; the greatest contribution to this has come from a reduction in sheep LU (livestock units), although cattle LU has also fallen in all countries. The greatest decreases in grazing pressure have occurred in the North of England, South Wales, the Western Isles of Scotland (Eileanan an Iar) and the Western part of Northern Ireland (Fermanagh). A minority of regions have experienced an increase in grazing pressure including the Peak District, Welsh Borders and South West of England, principally due to more cattle grazing. Changes in livestock numbers and grazing pressure vary considerably at local area level (with adjoining areas sometimes experiencing significant increases and decreases). There are notable differences between countries in the proportion of LU arising from cattle and sheep and overall stocking density. Key observations include the dominance of cattle in Northern Ireland, and by contrast, the relative importance of sheep in the LFA in Wales. Stocking density varies significantly by country, from an average of 0.25 LU/ha in Scotland to 1.06 LU/ha in Northern Ireland (although this figure relates to LFA and non- LFA land). There are also significant variations within each country – for example, from 0.05 LU/ha in Eileanan an Iar (Scotland) through to 1.27 LU/ha in South West DA (England). These variations are likely to reflect in part the proportion of semi-natural vegetation in a region and potentially provide an indicator of how High Nature Value (HNV) an area is. The differences in grazing pressure and stocking density could have important implications for biodiversity which require further analysis. For example, the data indicates that, in Wales, there is less opportunity for mixed grazing due to the relative dominance of sheep which could lead to difficulties accessing cattle grazing to Changing livestock numbers in the UK LFA – Final Report ii Cumulus Consultants Ltd - CC-P-545 Issue 3.0 Date: 4 December 2012 manage unimproved ‘coarser’ vegetation types such as rhos pasture. Overall, grazing pressure is notably higher in Northern Ireland and Wales and further analysis is needed to understand the biodiversity implications of this – for example, by overlaying stocking rate and biodiversity data. Alongside changes in livestock numbers, there have been a number of other changes in grazing regimes in the LFA in recent years. Common changes across all four countries include: less cattle and mixed grazing; greater use of continental/improved breeds of cattle and sheep; summer grazing on the hill starting later; less out-wintering and feeding on the hill; less hefting and shepherding, less common grazing, less burning, more housing of cattle and indoor lambing, more intensive use of in-bye land, a shift from hay to silage and more finishing of stock. There are fewer holdings and farmers with stock, fewer active commoners and more part-time farmers in the LFA. Other changes, specific to certain areas, include a decrease in pony grazing and a reduction in grazing on crofts. The drivers behind these changes in livestock numbers and grazing regimes include the poor profitability of livestock farming, changing market demands, a switch from headage to decoupled payments, the introduction and widespread uptake of agri-environment schemes, outbreaks of livestock diseases including Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE), Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) and Bovine Tuberculosis (bovine TB), and socio- economic factors such as an aging farmer population and growth in off-farm income leading to a demand for simpler systems requiring less labour and management including less and/or a different type of stock. Regional differences are likely to have been influenced by differences in land productivity and suitability, remoteness, options for alternative management, policies, schemes available and socio-economic context. Single Farm Payments (SFP) and LFA payments are currently important in maintaining financial viability for farms in the LFA, but lack conditionality to reward those farms which deliver most environmental services. In terms of the biodiversity implications of these changes in livestock numbers and grazing regimes, there has been a polarisation between semi-natural areas, which have experienced a reduction in grazing pressure and a recovery of habitats, which has been broadly positive for biodiversity, and improved areas which have been more intensively used and managed with a negative impact on biodiversity. In particular, a move from traditional breeds to continental or improved breeds of cattle and sheep has changed the grazing pressure on different parts of farms. The higher nutritional requirements of continental/improved breeds has led to an intensification of use and management of in- bye and marginal land, leading to a loss of semi-natural grassland habitats due to agricultural improvement. However, this change has also contributed to under-grazing on the hill. Upland habitats such as dry heath, wet heath and blanket bog have recovered (and continue to recover) as a result of reduced grazing by sheep in particular, contributing to the improving condition of many sites. However undergrazing and loss of vegetation structure is now occurring in some areas, with adverse impacts for some species such as golden plover and other waders. Less cattle and mixed grazing is contributing to the spread of ranker grasses, rush, scrub and bracken and hampering restoration efforts. A decline in hefting and shepherding is leading to overgrazing and undergrazing on different parts of the same site. Less burning is leading to older stands of heather and loss of vegetation structure. Less grazing is contributing to both native woodland regeneration but also conifer regeneration. On the other hand, less livestock has allowed an increase in grazing by deer and other herbivores. This project has found there is a proven need for the use of cattle with hardy traits. However, not all traditional herds have these traits as they have been bred out of them in favour of intensive production values, illustrating the importance of careful stock selection. More intensive use and agricultural improvement of the in-bye land has resulted in a loss of floral diversity and structure for nesting birds such as lapwing and skylark, as well as nutrient enrichment. The biodiversity impacts vary greatly at local level. The nature of the impact depends on the mix of habitats and species, the history of grazing in a particular area, and the nature Changing livestock numbers in the UK LFA – Final Report iii Cumulus Consultants Ltd - CC-P-545 Issue 3.0 Date: 4 December 2012 of the change in grazing regime.