Northern Afghanistan Drought Impact Assessment April 2008 • A drought impact assessment was conducted in northern Figure 1. Current estimated food security conditions, April 2008 Afghanistan, by FEWS NET, to identify high risk zones where lives and livelihoods were at risk due to below‐ average rainfall (50‐90 percent below normal). • The impact of the current drought is most severe in areas which depend on d rain‐fe agriculture, rather than irrigation. Ninety percent of rain‐fed wheat acreage has no yield while irrigated wheat yield is likely to decrease by 20‐30 percent in areas of the northwest where farmers are faced with water shortages. • Provision of food aid is essential to save lives and livelihoods in Almar, the Astana areas of Shirin Tagab district, the Pashtun Kut areas of Faryab Province, Dari Suf Payin, and the rain fed areas of the Hazrat Sultan District Source: FEWS NET of Samangan Province. • Scarcity of adequate pasture and animal feed has reached critical levels in the northwestern provinces and urgent attention is needed in order to prevent further deterioration in agro‐pastoralist livelihoods. Seasonal calendar and critical events Methodology The main objective of the northern drought impact assessment was to identify high risk zones where lives and livelihoods were at risk due to the impact of drought. Affected populations were defined as households using irreversible coping strategies (e.g., distress sales of key assets) or households with no remaining resources toe cop with any further shocks. Two criteria were used to select districts for the northern Afghanistan assessment. First, areas where rain fed agro‐ pastoralism was the common livelihood approach were chosen because these areas are comparatively more vulnerable to drought than regions where other types of livelihoods, like carpet weaving,d an irrigated agriculture, are more common. Second, the assessment team used remote sensing data (the water requirement satisfaction index) to identify the districts where crops had been most severely affected by below‐normal precipitation during the production season (Figure 2). In the selected areas (Faryab, Sari Pul, Jawzjan, Balkh, Samangan, Baghlan, Kundoz, and Takhar Provinces), data was collected through direct observation and key informant interviews with farmers and livestock owners, NGOs and UN agencies, food traders, and government officials, particularly those from provincial departments of agriculture. FEWS NET Washington FEWS NET Afghanistan 1717 H St NW FEWS NET is a USAID funded activity. The authors’ views expressed in Kabul this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Washington DC 20006 Agency for International Development or the United States Government. [email protected] www.fews.net Northern Afghanistan Drought Impact Assessment April 2008 Figure 2. Median Year Water Requirement Summary Satisfaction Index Across northern Afghanistan, the impact of the current drought is most severe in areas which depend on rain‐fed agriculture, rather than irrigation. Ninety percent of rain‐fed wheat acreage has no yield while irrigated wheat yield is likely to decrease by 20‐30 percent in areas of the northwest where farmers are faced with water shortages, particularly in the northern districts of Jawzjan Province. Access to drinking water has also started to deteriorate in the rain‐fed zones of the assessed area. From the perspective of food security, districts in Samangan, Faryab, Jawzjan, and Sari Pul provinces are the most seriously affected by drought. Source: USGS The severity of the drought’s impact is directly associated with elevation. In areas over 2,000 m, like the mountainous districts of Faryab and Sari Pul provinces called “Kohistanant”, rain fed agriculture is doing well and the harvest is expected to be average. At elevations between 700 m and 2,000 m, wheat germination rates were good but little or no grain was harvested due to poor heading and ripening. Below 700 m, wheat had poor germination rates. Anticipation of a poor 2008 harvest and a reduction in wheat imports from neighboring countries have contributed to rising prices for wheat flour, increases which are compounded in Samangan and Faryab provinces by unofficial bans on wheat/flour movement, and illegal taxation. These price increases are also occurring in other areas of the country not covered by this assessment. Meanwhile, livestock prices have decreased by 40 to 70 percent since March 2008 in all visited provinces, with the largest reduction in the northwest. These declines, in combination with the high price of wheat flour, have seriously affected the purchasing power for rain‐fed agro‐pastoralists. For example, two months ago in Faryab Province, one sheep could be traded for four 50 kg sacks of wheat flour. Now, the value of the same sheep has dropped to less than one sack. This deterioration in the terms of trade has led to significant livestock depletion, limited access to purchased wheat, and reduced the availability of dairy products at the household level. In response to the drought, the majority of livestock owners have taken their herds to mountainous areas in search of better pasture. However, this practice may cause tension between the migrating herders and the area’s native population, whose livestock use these same grazing areas. In addition, the carrying capacity of the mountainous areas may be overwhelmed by the increased numbers of livestock. In the Faryab and Samangan provinces, the majority of men have left their homes to seek work in other parts of the country and abroad, primarily in Iran. However, there is limited demand for low‐skill workers within internal labor markets, and Iran has implemented immigration restrictions on labor migrants. Thus, this coping strategy is likely to fail, with significant negative implications for food security, including reduced access to food and household asset depletion. Provincial Findings Faryab Province The entirety of Faryab Province is acutely hit by drought. However, taking into consideration other factors, including the availability of other sources of income and livelihood options and the fact that last year’s harvest was average in some areas (as compared to the five‐year average), the assessment team prioritized three districts as highly affected areas which need external assistance, both food aid distribution and animal feed provision: Almar, the Astana areas of Shirin Tagab District, and rain‐fed areas of Pashtun Kot District. In the past month, livestock market prices have decreased by 60‐70 percent in the Faryab Province. For example, two months ago, one sheep could be traded for four 50 kg sacks of wheat flour. Now, the value of the same sheep has dropped to less than one sack. Meat prices have also declined (30 percent) in the last month and farmers in the province are facing acute shortages of animal feed due to drought. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2 Northern Afghanistan Drought Impact Assessment April 2008 There are currently less than 100 MT of wheat flour in the province’s major market (Maymana), significantly less (90 percent) than at the same time in 2007. This is due mainly to high wheat prices which prevent traders with limited capital from buying in large quantities. Also contributing to high prices and limited supply are bribes and additional “taxes” which traders report are being collected by Mazar‐Maymana highway police. The rain‐fed zones of Qaisar, Khawja Sabz Push, and Maymana districts were also identified as moderately affected areas which require external food assistance, for both household consumption and livestock. Kohistan and Bilchiragh districts are prioritized as mildly drought affected areas which may, however, face problems with animal feed shortages during the 2008‐09 winter (November‐March, depending on elevation) due to a high concentration of livestock on their pastures. These districts are situated at high elevations which are less vulnerable to the drought, but are remote and poorly connected with road and market infrastructure. Chaharbagh, Ankhoy, Qamarcol, and Dawlatabad districts of Faryab Province have been identified as unlikely to need external humanitarian assistance because 80‐90 percent of population’s income is derived from carpet sales. Despite this, it should be noted that this area has very salty drinking water and has been badly affect by drought. Samangan Province After Faryab Province, Samangan Province was identified by the team as the second most drought affected province. As Samangan Province is predominately rain fed, it is highly vulnerable to low precipitation. Rain‐fed areas of Dara‐i‐Sup Pain and Hazarat Sultan districts and the rain‐fed areas of Aybak Districts were identified as highly drought affected areas, while Dari Sup Bala District was identified as a moderately drought affected area. Livestock owners reported that demand for animals has dropped significantly since March and that in the last month livestock mortality has increased due to a lack of pasture. These districts are in urgent need of food assistance, both food aid distribution and animal feed provision. The majority of men in Samangan Province have migrated to Kabul in search of day labor in the construction sector. However, uncertainty around the political and civil security situation in Afghanistan has led to reduced investment in this sector and limited employment opportunities. The Department of Agriculture of Samangan Province has received complaints from local food traders that government officials in Balkh Province are preventing traders from transporting Kazakh wheat flour from Balkh to Samangan. This is not an official policy of the Afghan government, but instead a decision by local officials designed to stabilize wheat prices within Balkh province at the expense of other provinces’ food needs. All wheat flour from Kazakhstan, the nation’s second most important source of wheat imports after Pakistan, is transited though Balkh Province into northern Afghanistan. Jawzjan Province Wheat production in Jawzjan Province is predominately irrigated, with the exception of Darzab District (which borders Faryab Province), where households rely mainly on rain‐fed crops.