Memorandum for the President
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The Defense Program and the Economy Hearings
THE DEFENSE PROGRAM AND THE ECONOMY HEARINGS BEFORE THE SUBCOMMITTEE ON ECONOMIC GOALS AND INTERGOVERNMENTAL POLICY OF THE JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES NINETY-SEVENTH CONGRESS FIRST AND SECOND SESSIONS PART 1 OCTOBER 7, 13, 22, AND 29, 1981, AND DECEMBER 15, 1982 Printed for the use of the Joint Economic Committee U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 9-760 WASHINGTON:.1983 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to see. 5(a) of Public law 304, 79th Cong.) HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES SENATE HENRY S. REUSS, Wisconsin, Chairman ROGER W. JEPSEN, Iowa, Vice Chairman RICHARD BOLLING, Missouri WILLIAM V. ROTH, Ja., Delaware LEE H. HAMILTON, Indiana JAMES ABDNOR, South Dakota. GILLIS W. LONG, Louisiana STEVEN D. SYMMS, Idaho PARREN J. MITCHELL, Maryland PAULA HAWKINS, Florida FREDERICK W. RICHMOND, New York' MACK MATTINGLY, Georgia CLARENCE J. BROWN, Ohio LLOYD BENTSEN, Texas MARGARET M. HECKLER, Massachusetts WILLIAM PROXMIRE, Wisconsin JOHN H. ROUSSELOT, California EDWARD M. KENNEDY, Massachusetts CHALMERS P. WYLIE, Ohio PAUL S. SARBANES, Maryland JAMES K. GALBRAITH, Executive Director BRucE R. BARTLETT, Deputy Director SUBCOMMITTEE ON ECONOMIC GOALS AND INTERGOVEBNMENTAL PoLIor HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES SENATE LEE H. HAMILTON, Indiana, Chairman LLOYD BENTSEN, Texas, Vice Chairman RICHARD BOLLING, Missouri PAULA HAWKINS, Florida STEVEN D. SYMMS, Idaho MACK MATTINGLY, Georgia 1 Representative Richmond resigned from the U.S. House of Representatives on Aug. 25, 1982, and Representative Augustus F. Hawkins, of California, was subsequently appointed to the committee on Sept. 23, 1982. CONTENTS WITNESSES AND STATEMENTS WEDNESDAY, OCTOBEB 7, 1981 Reuss, Hon. Henry S., chairman of the Joint Economic Committee: Open- Page ing statement ------------------------------------------------- 1 Weidenbaum, Hon. -
Technical Paper Series Congressional Budget Office Washington, DC
Technical Paper Series Congressional Budget Office Washington, DC MODELING LONG-RUN ECONOMIC GROWTH Robert W. Arnold Congressional Budget Office Washington, D.C. 20515 [email protected] June 2003 2003-4 Technical papers in this series are preliminary and are circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. These papers are not subject to CBO’s formal review and editing processes. The analysis and conclusions expressed in them are those of the author and should not be interpreted as those of the Congressional Budget Office. References in publications should be cleared with the author. Papers in this series can be obtained from www.cbo.gov. Abstract This paper reviews the recent empirical literature on long-run growth to determine what factors influence growth in total factor productivity (TFP) and whether there are any channels of influence that should be added to standard models of long-run growth. Factors affecting productivity fall into three general categories: physical capital, human capital, and innovation (including other factors that might influence TFP growth). Recent empirical evidence provides little support for the idea that there are extra-normal returns to physical capital accumulation, nor is there solid justification for adding a separate channel of influence from capital to TFP growth. The paper finds evidence that human capital—as distinct from labor hours worked—is an important factor for growth but also that there is not yet a consensus about exactly how it should enter the model. Some argue that human capital should enter as a factor of production, while others argue that it merely spurs innovation. The forces governing TFP growth are not well understood, but there is evidence that R&D spending is a significant contributor and that its benefit to society may exceed its benefit to the company doing the spending—that is, it is a source of spillovers. -
Regional Oral History Office University of California the Bancroft Library Berkeley, California
Regional Oral History Office University of California The Bancroft Library Berkeley, California Charles Schultze Slaying the Dragon of Debt: Fiscal Politics and Policy from the 1970s to the Present A project of the Walter Shorenstein Program in Politics, Policy and Values Interviews conducted by Martin Meeker in 2010 Copyright © 2011 by The Regents of the University of California ii Since 1954 the Regional Oral History Office has been interviewing leading participants in or well-placed witnesses to major events in the development of Northern California, the West, and the nation. Oral History is a method of collecting historical information through tape-recorded interviews between a narrator with firsthand knowledge of historically significant events and a well-informed interviewer, with the goal of preserving substantive additions to the historical record. The tape recording is transcribed, lightly edited for continuity and clarity, and reviewed by the interviewee. The corrected manuscript is bound with photographs and illustrative materials and placed in The Bancroft Library at the University of California, Berkeley, and in other research collections for scholarly use. Because it is primary material, oral history is not intended to present the final, verified, or complete narrative of events. It is a spoken account, offered by the interviewee in response to questioning, and as such it is reflective, partisan, deeply involved, and irreplaceable. ********************************* All uses of this manuscript are covered by a legal agreement between The Regents of the University of California and Charles Schultze, dated January 19, 2011. The manuscript is thereby made available for research purposes. All literary rights in the manuscript, including the right to publish, are reserved to The Bancroft Library of the University of California, Berkeley. -
Henry Aaron, Brookings Insitution Gilbert Metcalf, Tufts University
An Open Statement Opposing Proposals for a Gas Tax Holiday In recent weeks, there have been proposals in Congress and by some presidential candidates to suspend the gas tax for the summer. As economists who study issues of energy policy, taxation, public finance, and budgeting, we write to indicate our opposition to this policy. Put simply, suspending the federal tax on gasoline this summer is a bad idea and we oppose it. There are several reasons for this opposition. First, research shows that waiving the gas tax would generate major profits for oil companies rather than significantly lowering prices for consumers. Second, it would encourage people to keep buying costly imported oil and do nothing to encourage conservation. Third, a tax holiday would provide very little relief to families feeling squeezed. Fourth, the gas tax suspension would threaten to increase the already record deficit in the coming year and reduce the amount of money going into the highway trust fund that maintains our infrastructure. Signers of this letter are Democrats, Republicans and Independents. This is not a partisan issue. It is a matter of good public policy. Henry Aaron, Brookings Insitution Gilbert Metcalf, Tufts University Joseph Stiglitz, Columbia University (Nobel Prize in Economics, 2001) James Heckman, University of Chicago (Nobel Prize in Economics, 2000) Daniel Kahneman, Princeton University (Nobel Prize in Economics, 2002) Charles Schultze, Brookings Institution (President of the American Economic Association, 1984, Chairman Council of Economic Advisers 1977-1981, Director, Bureau of the Budget, 1965-1967) Alice Rivlin, Brookings Institution (President of the American Economic Association, 1986, Director of O.M.B. -
"What Can an Economic Adviser Do When the President Adopts Bad Economic Policies?"
"What Can An Economic Adviser Do When the President Adopts Bad Economic Policies?" Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor, KSG, Harvard University The Pierson Lecture, Swarthmore, April 21, 2005 Summary: What would you do if you were appointed Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers under a president who was committed to one or more specific policies that you considered to be inconsistent with good economics? A look at the experiences of your predecessors over the last 40 years might help illustrate your alternative options. The lecture will review the history. It will then go on to suggest that such conflicts should be particularly acute in the current Administration. The reason is that Republican presidents have increasingly adopted policies-- with regard particularly to budget deficits, trade, the size of government, and inflation -- that deviate from the principles of good economics, and that used to be considered the weaknesses of Democratic presidents. It is a great honor to be giving the Pierson lecture.1 I must confess that I never had Frank Pierson for a course. But he was the senior eminence of the Economics Department when I attended Swarthmore in the early 1970s, having already been associated with the department more than 40 years. In that time, Frank Pierson was known as one of the last professors who still regularly held his honors seminars at his house, with an impressive series of desserts, including make-your-own sundaes, and Irish coffee. The early 1970s were a volatile time of course, with the War in Viet Nam still on.2 In 1972 the big split on campus was between those of us working for McGovern on the left, and the 1 The author wishes to acknowledge help from Peter Jaquette, Arnold Kling, Jeff Miron, Stephen O’Connell, Francis Bator, Michael Boskin, David Cutler, Jason Furman, Gilbert Heebner, William Gale, Jeff Liebman, Peter Orszag, Roger Porter, Charles Schultze, Phillip Swagel, Laura Tyson, Murray Weidenbaum, Marina Whitman, and Janet Yellen. -
Front Matter To" American Economic Policy in the 1980S"
This PDF is a selection from an out-of-print volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research Volume Title: American Economic Policy in the 1980s Volume Author/Editor: Martin Feldstein, ed. Volume Publisher: University of Chicago Press Volume ISBN: 0-226-24093-2 Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/feld94-1 Conference Date: October 17-20, 1990 Publication Date: January 1994 Chapter Title: Front matter, "American Economic Policy in the 1980s" Chapter Author: Martin S. Feldstein Chapter URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c7751 Chapter pages in book: (p. -12 - 0) This Page Intentionally Left Blank American Economic Policy in the 1980s A National Bureau of Economic Research Conference Report American Economic Policy in the 1980s Edited and with an Introductory Essay by Martin Feldstein s The University of Chicago Press LW Chicago and London MARTINFELDSTEIN is George F. Baker Professor of Economics at Har- vard University and president and chief executive officer of the National Bureau of Economic Research. He was chairman of the Council of Eco- nomic Advisers from 1982 to 1984. The University of Chicago Press, Chicago 60637 The University of Chicago Press, Ltd., London 0 1994 by the National Bureau of Economic Research All rights reserved. Published 1994 Printed in the United States of America 02 01 00 99 98 97 96 95 94 1 2 3 4 5 ISBN: 0-226-24093-2 (cloth) Library of Congress Cataloging-in-PublicationData American economic policy in the 1980s / edited by Martin Feldstein. p. cm.-(A National Bureau of Economic Research conference report) Includes bibliographical references and indexes. -
Political Pressures on Monetary Policy During the US Great Inflation†
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 2012, 4(2): 33–64 http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/mac.4.2.33 Political Pressures on Monetary Policy During the US Great Inflation† By Charles L. Weise* Drawing on an analysis of Federal Open Market Committee FOMC documents, this paper argues that political pressures on the( Federal) Reserve were an important contributor to the rise in inflation in the United States in the 1970s. Members of the FOMC understood that a serious attempt to tackle inflation would generate opposition from Congress and the executive branch. Political considerations contributed to delays in monetary tightening, insufficiently aggressive anti-inflation policies, and the premature abandonment of attempts at disinflation. Empirical analysis verifies that references to the political environment at FOMC meetings are correlated with the stance of monetary policy during this period. JEL D72, E32, E52, ( E58, N12 ) hat accounts for the Federal Reserve’s failure to control inflation in the WUnited States in the 1970s? One important set of factors has been highlighted in recent research by Romer and Romer 2002 , Nelson 2005 , Orphanides 2002, ( ) ( ) ( 2003, 2004 , and others. The argument set forth by these authors, which Romer ) 2005 calls the “ideas” hypothesis, is that the Federal Reserve’s errors were rooted ( ) in the beliefs that policymakers held about the structure of the economy. These beliefs included an unrealistically low estimate of the natural rate of unemploy- ment, the belief that observed inflation had little to do with monetary policy and that monetary policy could do little to combat it, and an overly pessimistic estimate of the costs of disinflation. -
Arthur Burns and G. William Miller: the Hapless Inflators
Excerpt from Fed Watching for Fun and Profit Edward Yardeni March 2020 Chapter 3 Arthur Burns and G. William Miller: The Hapless Inflators Fueling the Great Inflation Arthur Burns served as Fed chair from February 1, 1970 to January 31, 1978 under Presidents Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, and Jimmy Carter. Burns was an academic, and the first PhD macroeconomist to head the Fed. He taught economics at both Rutgers University (starting in 1927) and Columbia University (1945), having earned his PhD at the latter. As a doctoral student at Columbia, Burns studied under Wesley Clair Mitchell, a founder of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and its chief researcher. Mitchell brought Burns into the NBER, where Burns began his lifelong research into the business cycle. Together, in 1946, they published Measuring Business Cycles, which introduced the characteristic NBER methods of analyzing business cycles empirically.32 It was Burns who started the NBER’s academic tradition of determining recessions—a role that has been continued by the organization’s Business Cycle Dating Committee. The NBER remains the preeminent authority on dating recessions.[33] Burns served as president and chair of the NBER at points throughout his teaching career. He also chaired the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) from 1953 to 1956 under President Dwight Eisenhower. The CEA was established by the Employment Act of 1946, which stated that it is the responsibility of the federal government to create “conditions under which there will be afforded useful employment for those able, willing, and seeking work, and to promote maximum employment, production, and purchasing power.” The CEA was created to help President Eisenhower and successive Presidents make sure another Great Depression would never happen. -
American Economic Policy in the 1980S: a Personal View
This PDF is a selection from an out-of-print volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research Volume Title: American Economic Policy in the 1980s Volume Author/Editor: Martin Feldstein, ed. Volume Publisher: University of Chicago Press Volume ISBN: 0-226-24093-2 Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/feld94-1 Conference Date: October 17-20, 1990 Publication Date: January 1994 Chapter Title: American Economic Policy in the 1980s: A Personal View Chapter Author: Martin S. Feldstein Chapter URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c7752 Chapter pages in book: (p. 1 - 80) American Economic 1 Policy in the 1980s: A Personal View Martin Feldstein The decade of the 1980s was a time of fundamental changes in American eco- nomic policy. These changes were influenced by the economic conditions that prevailed as the decade began, by the style and political philosophy of F’resi- dent Ronald Reagan, and by the new intellectual climate among economists and policy officials. The unusually high rate of inflation in the late 1970s and the rapid increase of personal taxes and government spending in the 1960s and 1970s had caused widespread public discontent. Ronald Reagan’s election in 1980 reflected this political mood and provided a president who was commit- ted to achieving low inflation, to lowering tax rates, and to shrinking the role of government in the economy. In our democracy, major changes in government policy generally do not occur without corresponding changes in the thinking of politicians, journalists, other opinion leaders, and the public at large. In the field of economic policy, those changes in thinking often reflect prior intellectual developments within the economics profession itself. -
Interview with Frederick H. Schultz Former Vice Chairman, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Federal Reserve Board Oral History Project Interview with Frederick H. Schultz Former Vice Chairman, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Date: January 7, 2008, and January 8, 2008 Location: Jacksonville, Florida Interviewers: David H. Small and Lynn Fox Federal Reserve Board Oral History Project In connection with the centennial anniversary of the Federal Reserve in 2013, the Board undertook an oral history project to collect personal recollections of a range of former Governors and senior staff members, including their background and education before working at the Board; important economic, monetary policy, and regulatory developments during their careers; and impressions of the institution’s culture. Following the interview, each participant was given the opportunity to edit and revise the transcript. In some cases, the Board staff also removed confidential FOMC and Board material in accordance with records retention and disposition schedules covering FOMC and Board records that were approved by the National Archives and Records Administration. Note that the views of the participants and interviewers are their own and are not in any way approved or endorsed by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Because the conversations are based on personal recollections, they may include misstatements and errors. ii Contents January 7, 2008 (First Day of Interview) .................................................................................... 1 Background .................................................................................................................................... -
Perceived FOMC: the Making of Hawks, Doves and Swingers
Perceived FOMC: The Making of Hawks, Doves and Swingers Michael Bordo1 Klodiana Istrefi2 [email protected] [email protected] Economics Working Paper 18108 HOOVER INSTITUTION 434 GALVEZ MALL STANFORD UNIVERSITY STANFORD, CA 94305-6010 May 18, 2018 Narrative records in US newspapers reveal that about 70 percent of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members who served during the last 55 years are perceived to have had persistent policy preferences over time, as either inflation-fighting hawks or growth-promoting doves. The rest are perceived as swingers, switching between types, or remained an unknown quantity to markets. What makes a member a hawk or a dove? What moulds those who change their tune? We highlight ideology by education and early life economic experiences of members of the FOMC from 1960s to 2015. This research is based on an original dataset. Keywords: monetary policy committees; Federal Reserve; policy preferences JEL No. E03, E50, E61 The Hoover Institution Economics Working Paper Series allows authors to distribute research for discussion and comment among other researchers. Working papers reflect the views of the authors and not the views of the Hoover Institution. 1Michael Bordo, Department of Economics, Rutgers University, 75 Hamilton Street, New Brunswick NJ 08901. 2 Klodiana Istrefi, Monetary Policy Research Division, Banque de France. Introduction Monetary policy decisions in recent years typically arise from the deliberation and vote of a committee.3 The setting of policy in a committee -
Remarks at the Memorial of Charles L. Schultze the Brookings Institution November 4, 2016
Remarks at the memorial of Charles L. Schultze The Brookings Institution November 4, 2016 Remarks by Ted Gayer Vice President, Economic Studies at Brookings Good afternoon, everyone. My name is Ted Gayer, I’m Vice President and Director of the Economic Studies program here at Brookings. I’d like to start by thanking Charlie’s children—Chris, Carol, Lynn, Kathleen, Kevin, and Karen—for asking us to host his memorial service at Brookings. The Economics Studies program is a vibrant intellectual community, a community of experts who analyze, assess, opine, debate (and even at times, argue) about the most critical of economic questions. Most days we are up on this stage discussing big, weighty, global problems. But we should not forget that this place is a local community—a community of colleagues and friends, of people kibitzing about sports and politics and books and music, of people caring for each other and for each others’ families, and of people missing those of our community who are no longer with us. By allowing us to host this memorial service for Charlie, his family has recognized this place as the community that it is, a community of people who deeply respected and cared about Charlie. While I knew of Charlie professionally for much of my adult life given his prominence in the field, I only met him and grew to know him personally about 7 years ago when I first came to Brookings. It’s a heady thing to meet a legend in one’s profession. Heady, but not intimidating, since Charlie was eminently approachable.