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A Case for Building Resilience Into Western Australia's Lithium Industry

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A Case for Building Resilience Into Western Australia's Lithium Industry A case for building resilience into Western Australia’s lithium industry Chamber of Minerals and Energy and Association of Mining and Exploration Companies June 2020 i Disclosure and Disclaimer This report has been prepared by Australian Venture Consultants Pty Ltd (ACN: 101 195 699) (‘AVC’). AVC has been commissioned to prepare this report by the Chamber of Minerals and Energy Western Australia (CME) and the Association of Mining and Exploration Companies (AMEC) and has received a commission from CME and AMEC for its preparation. While the information contained in this report has been prepared by AVC with all reasonable care from sources that AVC believes to be reliable, no responsibility or liability is accepted by AVC for any errors, omissions or misstatements however caused. Any opinions or recommendations reflect the judgment and assumptions of AVC as at the date of the document and may change without notice. AVC, its officers, agents and employees exclude all liability whatsoever, in negligence or otherwise, for any loss or damage relating to this document to the full extent permitted by law. Any opinion contained in this report is unsolicited general information only. AVC is not aware that any recipient intends to rely on this report or of the manner in which a recipient intends to use it. In preparing this information it is not possible to take into consideration the information or opinion needs of any individual recipient. Recipients should conduct their own research into the issues discussed in this report before acting on any recommendation. ii Table of Contents Executive Summary .............................................................................................................................. 1 1. Background and Purpose of the Study ...................................................................................... 9 1.1. Background to the study ....................................................................................................... 9 1.2. Purpose of the study ............................................................................................................ 11 1.3. Structure of the report ......................................................................................................... 12 1.4. Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................. 12 2. Trends, status and outlook for demand along the Lithium-ion battery value chain ........... 13 2.1. Derived demand for lithium materials and chemicals .................................................... 14 2.2. Demand for lithium chemicals............................................................................................ 20 2.3. Impact of policy changes ................................................................................................... 21 2.4. Summary of the demand outlook ...................................................................................... 33 3. Trends, status and outlook for lithium raw materials supply ................................................... 34 3.1. Global reserves ..................................................................................................................... 34 3.2. Global production................................................................................................................ 35 3.3. Summary of raw material production outlook ................................................................. 59 4. Trends, status and outlook for lithium chemical manufacture .............................................. 62 4.1. People’s Republic of China ................................................................................................ 62 4.2. Japan ..................................................................................................................................... 64 4.3. Republic of Korea................................................................................................................. 65 4.4. Western Australia .................................................................................................................. 65 4.5. International Government Incentives for Downstream Investment ............................... 68 4.6. Lithium chemical demand and supply forecasts ............................................................. 68 4.7. Summary of lithium chemical manufacturing outlook .................................................... 69 5. Impact of COVID-19 .................................................................................................................... 71 5.1. Declining wealth impact on EV demand ......................................................................... 71 5.2. Manufacturing ...................................................................................................................... 72 5.3. Energy supply and storage ................................................................................................. 74 5.4. Summary of likely impact of COVID-19 ............................................................................. 77 6. Implications for the Western Australian lithium industry .......................................................... 79 6.1. Strong medium-term outlook .............................................................................................. 79 iii 6.2. Short and medium term threats ......................................................................................... 80 6.3. Significant Western Australian spodumene concentrate production and hydroxide manufacture is at risk ...................................................................................................................... 81 7. Western Australian Government policy settings ...................................................................... 82 7.1. Industry recommendations ................................................................................................. 82 7.2. Lithium sector specific policy settings ................................................................................ 83 8. Lithium sector royalty efficacy ................................................................................................... 88 8.1. Efficacy with the Royalty Regime ....................................................................................... 88 8.2. Western Australian lithium sector efficacy ........................................................................ 91 9. Recommendations ...................................................................................................................... 92 9.1. The case for policy intervention ......................................................................................... 92 9.2. Nature of these recommendations ................................................................................... 94 9.3. Immediate-term initiatives ................................................................................................... 95 9.4. Medium-term initiatives ..................................................................................................... 104 9.5. Longer-term initiatives ........................................................................................................ 107 iv Executive Summary A faltering Western Australian lithium industry? The operational footprint of Western Australia’s spodumene production and emerging lithium hydroxide manufacturing sectors spans the Perth metropolitan area, South West, Goldfields- Esperance and Pilbara Regions. Regarded by many as fait accompli and the basis for an inevitable domestic battery manufacturing industry only 18 months ago, millions of tonnes of spodumene concentrate capacity that has come on-stream only in the past several years and the State’s yet to be commercialised lithium hydroxide manufacturing sector, despite an encouraging medium-term outlook, is now at a critical cross-roads facing some significant short-term challenges. The absence of domestic upstream chemical manufacturing capacity would nullify any aspirations the State may have with respect to developing downstream lithium-ion battery manufacturing sectors. The price of lithium (measured as Lithium Carbonate Equivalent) is currently four times below its 2017-18 peak and has been the subject of downward pressure for the past two years, with most forecasts expecting depressed conditions to continue for the next few years. These circumstances have arisen despite strong demand for lithium, which increased by 30 percent between 2018 and 2019. Indeed, the medium-term outlook for the demand profile presents favourably for Western Australia’s upstream industry. Demand for lithium-ion batteries across portable devices, energy storage systems (ESS) and particularly electric vehicles (EV) will continue to grow from 50 percent of lithium demand currently to over 80 percent in the next several years. Importantly for Western Australia, EVs will be the largest driver of demand in the battery sector, growing from just over 60 percent of battery derived demand for lithium currently to just under 90 percent in the next few years. Most importantly for Western Australia, the nickel-rich cathode chemistries should see demand for lithium hydroxide substantially outstrip demand for lithium carbonate. While ESS is also a growing source of derived demand, the fact that most applications do not require the same performance characteristics of EV batteries and there
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