Paradox of Value Examples
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Anintrapersonaladditionparadox
An Intrapersonal Addition Paradox Jacob M. Nebel December 1, 2017 Abstract I present a new problem for those of us who wish to avoid the repugnant conclu- sion. The problem is an intrapersonal, risky analogue of the mere addition paradox. The problem is important for three reasons. First, it highlights new conditions at least one of which must be rejected in order to avoid the repugnant conclusion. Some solu- tions to Parfit’s original puzzle do not obviously generalize to our intrapersonal puzzle in a plausible way. Second, it raises new concerns about how to make decisions un- der uncertainty for the sake of people whose existence might depend on what we do. Different answers to these questions suggest different solutions to the extant puzzles in population ethics. And, third, the problem suggests new difficulties for leading views about the value of a person’s life compared to her nonexistence. 1 The Mere Addition Paradox Many of us want to avoid what Parfit (1984) calls The Repugnant Conclusion: For any population of excellent lives, there is some population of mediocre lives whose existence would be better. By “better,” I mean something like what (Parfit 2011, 41) calls the impartial-reason-implying sense. One thing is better than another in this sense just in case, from an impartial point of view, we would have most reason to prefer the one to the other; two things are equally good in this sense just in case, from an impartial point of view, we would have most reason 1 to be indifferent between them. -
On the Nature of Moral Ideals PART II
12 On the Nature of Moral Ideals PART II In chapter 11 , we saw that Parfi t appealed to an Essentially Comparative View of Equality in presenting his Mere Addition Paradox, and that Parfi t now believes that his doing so was a big mistake. More generally, Parfi t now thinks that we should reject any Essentially Comparative View about the goodness of outcomes, which means that we must reject the Essentially Comparative View for all moral ideals relevant to assessing the goodness of outcomes. I noted my agreement with Parfi t that we should reject an Essentially Comparative View of Equality. But should we take the further step of rejecting an Essentially Comparative View for all moral ideals, in favor of the Internal Aspects View of Moral Ideals? Do we, in fact, open ourselves up to serious error if we allow our judgment about alternatives like A and A + to be infl uenced by whether or not A + involves Mere Addition? It may seem the answers to these questions must surely be “Yes!” Aft er all, as we saw in chapter 11 , adopting the Internal Aspects View would give us a way of reject- ing the Mere Addition Paradox. More important, it would enable us to avoid intran- sitivity in our all-things-considered judgments (in my wide reason-implying sense), allow the “all-things-considered better than” relation to apply to all sets of comparable outcomes, and license the Principle of Like Comparability for Equivalents. More- over, in addition to the unwanted implications of its denial, the Internal Aspects View has great appeal in its own right. -
HES Book of Abstracts
45th Annual Meetings of the History of Economics Society Book of Abstracts Loyola University Chicago Chicago, Illinois June 14 - 17, 2018 1 Abstracts of Papers to be Presented at the 2018 History of Economics Society Annual Conference Loyola University Chicago, Chicago, Illinois June 14 - 17, 2018 TABLE OF CONTENTS Friday, June 15 FRI Plenary Session: Douglas Irwin, "The Rise and Fall of Import Substitution" .................. 3 FRI1A Session: “Smith and his Intellectual Milleu (IASS)” .............................................................. 3 FRI1B Session: “Remembering Craufurd Goodwin” .......................................................................... 5 FRI1C Session: “American Political Economy” ..................................................................................... 5 FRI1D Session: “Constitutional Economics” .......................................................................................... 7 FRI1E Session: “European Issues" ............................................................................................................. 9 FRI1F Session: “Biology” .............................................................................................................................11 FRI2A Session: “Smith and his Contemporary Issues (IASS)” ......................................................14 FRI2B Session: “Archival Round Table” ................................................................................................15 FRI2C Session: “French Economics in the Long 19th Century” ...................................................16 -
The Economics, Neurobiology and Pharmacology of Intertemporal Choice in Humans
The Economics, Neurobiology and Pharmacology of Intertemporal Choice in Humans A thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Alexander J Pine University College London September 2009 2 Preface I, Alexander J Pine confirm that the work presented in this thesis is my own. Where information has been derived from other sources I confirm that this has been indicated in the thesis. AJ Pine 3 Abstract In intertemporal choice, decision-makers must choose between options whose outcomes occur at different times in the future and are associated with different magnitudes of gain or loss. Previous neuropsychological research on this problem is dominated by a behavioural- economic model which proposes that choice outcome is solely determined by a process of devaluing rewards with time, termed temporal discounting. This thesis investigates the veracity of this assumption by developing a new mathematical model of choice which takes into account another fundamental feature of human preference, namely the non-linearity of the relationship between the utility and magnitude of gains. Using behavioural data, methodologies are developed to demonstrate that this model is superior to previous models in accounting for human intertemporal choices. Specifically, using existing terminologies ‘impulsive’ and ‘self-controlled’ to describe preference in choices between smaller-sooner and larger-later monetary rewards, it is shown that the discounting of increasing magnitudes implied by the law of diminishing marginal utility exerts a significant effect in determining choice outcome. In addition to high rates of temporal discounting, it is shown that impulsivity can be engendered by higher rates of diminishing marginal utility and vice-versa. -
The Allais Paradox: What It Became, What It Really Was, What It Now Suggests to Us
Economics and Philosophy (2019), 35, 423–459 doi:10.1017/S0266267118000469 ARTICLE The Allais paradox: what it became, what it really was, what it now suggests to us Philippe Mongin GREGHEC, 1 rue de la Libération, F-78350 Jouy-en-Josas, France Email: [email protected] (Received 11 June 2018; revised 24 August 2018; accepted 27 August 2018; first published online 30 January 2019) Abstract Whereas many others have scrutinized the Allais paradox from a theoretical angle, we study the paradox from an historical perspective and link our findings to a suggestion as to how decision theory could make use of it today. We emphasize that Allais proposed the paradox as anormativeargument, concerned with ‘the rational man’ and not the ‘real man’,touse his words. Moreover, and more subtly, we argue that Allais had an unusual sense of the normative, being concerned not so much with the rationality of choices as with the rationality of the agent as a person. These two claims are buttressed by a detailed investigation – the first of its kind – of the 1952 Paris conference on risk, which set the context for the invention of the paradox, and a detailed reconstruction – also the first of its kind – of Allais’s specific normative argument from his numerous but allusive writings. The paper contrasts these interpretations of what the paradox historically represented, with how it generally came to function within decision theory from the late 1970s onwards: that is, as an empirical refutation of the expected utility hypothesis, and more specifically of the condition of von Neumann–Morgenstern independence that underlies that hypothesis. -
I'll Have What She's Having: Reflective Desires and Consequentialism
I'll Have What She's Having: Reflective Desires and Consequentialism by Jesse Kozler A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Bachelor of Arts with Honors Department of Philosophy in the University of Michigan 2019 Advisor: Professor James Joyce Second Reader: Professor David Manley Acknowledgments This thesis is not the product of solely my own efforts, and owes its existence in large part to the substantial support that I have received along the way from the many wonderful, brilliant people in my life. First and foremost, I want to thank Jim Joyce who eagerly agreed to advise this project and who has offered countless insights which gently prodded me to refine my approach, solidify my thoughts, and strengthen my arguments. Without him this project would never have gotten off the ground. I want to thank David Manley, who signed on to be the second reader and whose guidance on matters inside and outside of the realm of my thesis has been indispensable. Additionally, I want to thank Elizabeth Anderson, Peter Railton, and Sarah Buss who, through private discussions and sharing their own work, provided me with inspiration at times I badly needed it and encouraged me to think about previously unexamined issues. I am greatly indebted to the University of Michigan LSA Honors Program who, through their generous Honors Summer Fellowship program, made it possible for me to stay in Ann Arbor and spend my summer reading and thinking intentionally about these issues. I am especially grateful to Mika LaVaque-Manty, who whipped me into shape and instilled in me a work ethic that has been essential to the completion of this project. -
The Art of Thinking Clearly
For Sabine The Art of Thinking Clearly Rolf Dobelli www.sceptrebooks.co.uk First published in Great Britain in 2013 by Sceptre An imprint of Hodder & Stoughton An Hachette UK company 1 Copyright © Rolf Dobelli 2013 The right of Rolf Dobelli to be identified as the Author of the Work has been asserted by him in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means without the prior written permission of the publisher, nor be otherwise circulated in any form of binding or cover other than that in which it is published and without a similar condition being imposed on the subsequent purchaser. A CIP catalogue record for this title is available from the British Library. eBook ISBN 978 1 444 75955 6 Hardback ISBN 978 1 444 75954 9 Hodder & Stoughton Ltd 338 Euston Road London NW1 3BH www.sceptrebooks.co.uk CONTENTS Introduction 1 WHY YOU SHOULD VISIT CEMETERIES: Survivorship Bias 2 DOES HARVARD MAKE YOU SMARTER?: Swimmer’s Body Illusion 3 WHY YOU SEE SHAPES IN THE CLOUDS: Clustering Illusion 4 IF 50 MILLION PEOPLE SAY SOMETHING FOOLISH, IT IS STILL FOOLISH: Social Proof 5 WHY YOU SHOULD FORGET THE PAST: Sunk Cost Fallacy 6 DON’T ACCEPT FREE DRINKS: Reciprocity 7 BEWARE THE ‘SPECIAL CASE’: Confirmation Bias (Part 1) 8 MURDER YOUR DARLINGS: Confirmation Bias (Part 2) 9 DON’T BOW TO AUTHORITY: Authority Bias 10 LEAVE YOUR SUPERMODEL FRIENDS AT HOME: Contrast Effect 11 WHY WE PREFER A WRONG MAP TO NO -
Intransitivity and Future Generations: Debunking Parfit's Mere Addition Paradox
Journal of Applied Philosophy, Vol. 20, No. 2,Intransitivity 2003 and Future Generations 187 Intransitivity and Future Generations: Debunking Parfit’s Mere Addition Paradox KAI M. A. CHAN Duties to future persons contribute critically to many important contemporaneous ethical dilemmas, such as environmental protection, contraception, abortion, and population policy. Yet this area of ethics is mired in paradoxes. It appeared that any principle for dealing with future persons encountered Kavka’s paradox of future individuals, Parfit’s repugnant conclusion, or an indefensible asymmetry. In 1976, Singer proposed a utilitarian solution that seemed to avoid the above trio of obstacles, but Parfit so successfully demonstrated the unacceptability of this position that Singer abandoned it. Indeed, the apparently intransitivity of Singer’s solution contributed to Temkin’s argument that the notion of “all things considered better than” may be intransitive. In this paper, I demonstrate that a time-extended view of Singer’s solution avoids the intransitivity that allows Parfit’s mere addition paradox to lead to the repugnant conclusion. However, the heart of the mere addition paradox remains: the time-extended view still yields intransitive judgments. I discuss a general theory for dealing with intransitivity (Tran- sitivity by Transformation) that was inspired by Temkin’s sports analogy, and demonstrate that such a solution is more palatable than Temkin suspected. When a pair-wise comparison also requires consideration of a small number of relevant external alternatives, we can avoid intransitivity and the mere addition paradox without infinite comparisons or rejecting the Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives Principle. Disagreement regarding the nature and substance of our duties to future persons is widespread. -
AFFECTIVE DECISION MAKING and the ELLSBERG PARADOX By
AFFECTIVE DECISION MAKING AND THE ELLSBERG PARADOX By Anat Bracha and Donald J. Brown Revised: August 2008 June 2008 COWLES FOUNDATION DISCUSSION PAPER NO. 1667R COWLES FOUNDATION FOR RESEARCH IN ECONOMICS YALE UNIVERSITY Box 208281 New Haven, Connecticut 06520-8281 http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/ A¤ective Decision Making and the Ellsberg Paradox Anat Brachayand Donald J. Brownz August 18, 2008 Abstract A¤ective decision-making is a strategic model of choice under risk and un- certainty where we posit two cognitive processes — the “rational” and the “emoitonal” process. Observed choice is the result of equilibirum in this in- trapersonal game. As an example, we present applications of a¤ective decision-making in in- surance markets, where the risk perceptions of consumers are endogenous. We derive the axiomatic foundation of a¤ective decision making, and show that af- fective decision making is a model of ambiguity-seeking behavior consistent with the Ellsberg paradox. JEL Classi…cation: D01, D81, G22 Keywords: A¤ective choice, Endogenous risk perception, Insurance, Ellsberg paradox, Variational preferences, Ambiguity-seeking This paper is a revision of Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1667. We would like to thank Eddie Dekel, Tzachi Gilboa, Ben Polak and Larry Samuelson for comments and advice. Bracha would like to thank the Foerder Institute for Economic Research and the Whitebox Foundation for …nancial support. yThe Eitan Berglas School of Economics, Tel Aviv University zThe Economics Department, Yale University 1 1 Introduction The theory of choice under risk and uncertainty is a consequence of the interplay between formal models and experimental evidence. The Ellsberg paradox (1961) introduced the notion of ambiguity aversion and inspired models such as maxmin ex- pected utility (Gilboa and Schmeidler 1989), and variational preferences (Maccheroni Marinacci and Rustichini [MMR] 2006). -
UC Merced Proceedings of the Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society
UC Merced Proceedings of the Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society Title A Unified, Resource-Rational Account of the Allais and Ellsberg Paradoxes Permalink https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4p8865bz Journal Proceedings of the Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society, 43(43) ISSN 1069-7977 Authors Nobandegani, Ardavan S. Shultz, Thomas Dubé, Laurette Publication Date 2021 Peer reviewed eScholarship.org Powered by the California Digital Library University of California A Unified, Resource-Rational Account of the Allais and Ellsberg Paradoxes Ardavan S. Nobandegani1;3, Thomas R. Shultz2;3, & Laurette Dube´4 [email protected] fthomas.shultz, [email protected] 1Department of Electrical & Computer Engineering, McGill University 2School of Computer Science, McGill University 3Department of Psychology, McGill University 4Desautels Faculty of Management, McGill University Abstract them can explain both paradoxes (we discuss these models in the Discussion section). Decades of empirical and theoretical research on human decision-making has broadly categorized it into two, separate As a step toward a unified treatment of these two realms: decision-making under risk and decision-making un- types of decision-making, here we investigate whether the der uncertainty, with the Allais paradox and the Ellsberg para- the broad framework of resource-rationality (Nobandegani, dox being a prominent example of each, respectively. In this work, we present the first unified, resource-rational account 2017; Lieder & Griffiths, 2020) could provide a unified ac- of these two paradoxes. Specifically, we show that Nobande- count of the Allais paradox and the Ellsberg paradox. That is, gani et al.’s (2018) sample-based expected utility model pro- we ask if these two paradoxes could be understood in terms vides a unified, process-level account of the two variants of the Allais paradox (the common-consequence effect and the of optimal use of limited cognitive resources. -
Microeconomics
AQA A Level Economics Course Companion Year 2 Topics Microeconomics Author: Geoff Riley www.tutor2u.net Copyright tutor2u: www.tutor2u.net/economics 1 Individual economic decision making ................................................................................................ 4 Imperfect Information ........................................................................................................................ 6 Behavioural Economics ...................................................................................................................... 8 Public and Private Sector Organisations ...................................................................................... 15 Profit and Not-for-Profit Organisations ........................................................................................ 15 Production and productivity ............................................................................................................ 18 Specialisation, division of labour and exchange ............................................................................... 18 The Law of Diminishing Returns ....................................................................................................... 21 Long Run Returns to Scale ............................................................................................................ 22 Costs of Production .......................................................................................................................... 24 Costs of production in the short -
The Ethical Consistency of Animal Equality
1 The ethical consistency of animal equality Stijn Bruers, Sept 2013, DRAFT 2 Contents 0. INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................................................ 5 0.1 SUMMARY: TOWARDS A COHERENT THEORY OF ANIMAL EQUALITY ........................................................................ 9 1. PART ONE: ETHICAL CONSISTENCY ......................................................................................................... 18 1.1 THE BASIC ELEMENTS ................................................................................................................................. 18 a) The input data: moral intuitions .......................................................................................................... 18 b) The method: rule universalism............................................................................................................. 20 1.2 THE GOAL: CONSISTENCY AND COHERENCE ..................................................................................................... 27 1.3 THE PROBLEM: MORAL ILLUSIONS ................................................................................................................ 30 a) Optical illusions .................................................................................................................................... 30 b) Moral illusions ....................................................................................................................................