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Historical, Current, and Future Energy Demand from Global Copper Production and Its Impact on Climate Change

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Historical, Current, and Future Energy Demand from Global Copper Production and Its Impact on Climate Change resources Article Historical, Current, and Future Energy Demand from Global Copper Production and Its Impact on Climate Change Nadine Rötzer * and Mario Schmidt Institute for Industrial Ecology, Pforzheim University, Tiefenbronner Str. 65, 75175 Pforzheim, Germany; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected] Received: 3 March 2020; Accepted: 9 April 2020; Published: 16 April 2020 Abstract: Copper has always played an important role in human development. Demand for copper is going to rise, which makes its future supply a key issue for society. However, the oft-discussed declining ore grade and, therefore, the assumed enormous increase in energy demand and global warming potential could lead to a supply constraint. To develop suitable strategies to ensure copper availability, it is important to better understand the relationship between energy and ore grade and also its development. Therefore, in this paper we describe the development of the cumulative energy demand of copper production over the last eight decades and give an outlook into the future using a holistic process-based modelling approach. We also discuss how technological progress has thus far been able to offset the decreasing ore grade. However, if geological factors are becoming less favorable, technological improvements such as renewable energies are vital to keep this trend going. Keywords: ore grade; energy demand; development; copper; resource depletion 1. Introduction Copper has always been an indispensable part of our development, and the demand for copper increased continuously throughout the 20th century. A growing population, improving living standards and the expansion of copper-intensive technologies such as energy transition will continue to drive this trend forward [1]. According to Elshkaki et al. [2] a doubling of copper demand until 2050 is likely, and some studies even expect a five to eightfold increase if CO2 neutrality is to be achieved [3]. Securing the copper supply is therefore a major issue for our society to enable a sustainable future [4]. Despite increasing recycling, primary resources will still be necessary to meet demand in the foreseeable future [2]. In addition, copper is a base metal; its ores often contain other elements such as gold, silver, molybdenum, cobalt, and selenium [5], which makes copper mines an important source for these by-products [6,7]. However, the amount of primary copper is limited and the quality, i.e., the ore grade of the resources, varies. The largest proportion is rocks with minimal concentrations [8,9] which are worthless to us, at least under current conditions. Therefore, geological accumulations of metals in deposits are of high importance. However, historical data show a decline in the ore grade of the mined material [10,11]. There are many reasons for this: for example, the enormous increase in demand and thus a change in the type of deposit mined as well as the development of the technologies used for extraction and production [12,13]. While this trend does not indicate a purely geological shortage, it is often interpreted as an indication that the availability of raw materials is limited. This is based on the assumption that the energy costs of extracting metals are inversely proportional to the ore content, and therefore follow a 1/x curve [14]. Northey et al. [15], as well as Calvo et al. [16], use data from sustainability and other company reports to assess the relationship between energy consumption and ore grade. They both confirm Resources 2020, 9, 44; doi:10.3390/resources9040044 www.mdpi.com/journal/resources Resources 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 2 of 35 Northey et al. [15], as well as Calvo et al. [16], use data from sustainability and other company Resourcesreports2020 to assess, 9, 44 the relationship between energy consumption and ore grade. They both confirm2 of the 31 negative influence of the ore grade on the energy demand. Koppelaar and Koppelaar [17] also investigated the energy demand of copper production based on report data, and came to a similar theresult. negative Besides influence the ore of grade the ore they grade also on consider the energy other demand. influencing Koppelaar factors, and such Koppelaar as the extraction [17] also investigatedmethod and the mine energy depth, demand but neglect of copper some production importan basedt parameters, on report data,such andas the came stripping to a similar ratio result. (SR), Besidesi.e., the theamount ore grade of waste they alsoper considertonne of otherore. In influencing addition, factors,approaches such based as the on extraction data from method company and minereports depth, take butno other neglect auxiliary some important and operating parameters, materi suchals like as sulphuric the stripping acid ratio into (SR),consideration, i.e., the amount which ofalso waste contribute per tonne remarkably of ore. Into the addition, environmental approaches impacts based [18]. on Approaches data from company based on reportsa process-based take no othermaterial auxiliary flow model and operating offer a more materials holistic like approach. sulphuric The acid first into works consideration, date back which to the also 1970s contribute [19–21], remarkablybut the approach to the environmentalis also used in impactsmore recent [18]. Approachespublications based[22–24]. on These a process-based studies again material confirm flow a modeldisproportionate offer a more increase holistic approach.in energy The demand first works with date decreasing back to the ore 1970s content. [19–21 ],However, but the approach what is isneglected also used is ina temporal more recent view. publications Thus far, only [22 –a24 change]. These in the studies geological again factors confirm is aassumed, disproportionate but other increasedevelopments in energy also demand have an withinfluence, decreasing e.g., technological ore content. improvement However, what led isto neglected a shift of the is a curve temporal itself view.(see Figure Thus far,1). only a change in the geological factors is assumed, but other developments also have an influence, e.g., technological improvement led to a shift of the curve itself (see Figure1). Figure 1. Schematic representation of the relationship between ore grade and cumulative energy demandFigure 1. (CED) Schematic and the representation influence of di offferent the relationship events. between ore grade and cumulative energy demand (CED) and the influence of different events. In this paper, we show the development of the cumulative energy demand (CED) of primary copperIn production this paper, and we itsshow effects the on development climate change of the using cumulative a holistic process-basedenergy demand modelling (CED) of approach. primary Forcopper each production of the three and periods its effects considered—the on climate 1930s,change 1970s, using and a holistic 2010s—the process-based model was modelling adjusted accordinglyapproach. For to representeach of the the three global periods average consider of primaryed—the copper 1930s, production 1970s, and (from 2010s—the extraction model of rawwas materialsadjusted accordingly to finished copperto represent cathode the atglobal refinery) averag ate that of primary time. Therefore, copper production time-specific (from mining extraction and processingof raw materials technologies, to finished metallurgy, copper andcathode parameters at refiner havey) at been that researched time. Therefore, and included time-specific in the mining model. Theand three processing time periods technologies, were chosen metall tourgy, be ableand toparameters include all have major been technological researched improvementsand included in and the hence,model. to The show three the long-term time periods trend. Adaptingwere chosen technologies to be able and parametersto include also all allowsmajor possible technological future developmentsimprovements to and be assessed.hence, to show the long-term trend. Adapting technologies and parameters also allowsWith possible the approach future developments used we are ableto be to assessed. provide a better understanding of the past and future developmentWith the of approach the cumulative used we energy are able requirement to provide ofa better metal productionunderstanding and of its the main past influencing and future factors.development The work of shouldthe cumulative be understood energy as requiremen an analysis oft of a long-termmetal production trend and and the influenceits main influencing of possible futurefactors. developments. The work should Of course, be understood the energy as consumption an analysis ofof specifica long-term mines trend can di andffer substantially.the influence of possible future developments. Of course, the energy consumption of specific mines can differ 2.substantially. Materials and Methods This section describes the materials and methods used. Here, we refer to the CED. However, the2. Materials calculation and of Methods the global warming potential (GWP) and also other indicators follows the same methodology. Resources 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 3 of 35 This section describes the materials and methods used. Here, we refer to the CED. However, the calculation of the global warming potential (GWP) and also other indicators follows the same Resourcesmethodology.2020, 9, 44 3 of 31 2.1. Model of Global Copper Production 2.1. Model of Global Copper Production 2.1.1. Total Copper Production 2.1.1. Total Copper Production For the three time periods considered, primary
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