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0-22 RNI NO. 28587/75 REGISTERED NO. DL(ND)-11/6068/2021-22-2023; LICENSED TO POST WPP NO. U(C )-88/2021-23; FARIDABAD/05/202 )-88/2021-23; U(C NO. WPP POST TO LICENSED DL(ND)-11/6068/2021-22-2023; NO. REGISTERED 28587/75 NO. RNI

FROM THE EDITOR-IN-CHIEF

or over half a century, every election in Tamil Nadu India Today State of the States survey in 2020, Tamil Nadu has unfolded against the backdrop of its towering had registered a growth rate higher than the national average political personalities. The state’s politics has been for a third consecutive year. At 8.03 per cent, it was double F intertwined with its film industry unlike in any the all-India average of 4.2 per cent in 2019-20. The state’s other Indian state. The century-old Dravidian movement per capita income in the same year was Rs 1,53,853, taking it used the charisma of popular stars like MGR and scripts by from 12th place in the previous year to sixth position. Since M. Karunanidhi and C.N. Annadurai to further its ideology. 1994, poverty in Tamil Nadu has declined steadily both in The movement combined Tamil identity and language to urban and rural areas. oppose caste, temple worship and rituals. This combination worked spectacularly in a cinema-obsessed state where the he two national parties—BJP and Congress—are only bit lines between stardom and idol worship often got blurred. T players in this arena. However, the BJP’s performance this The DMK first captured power from the time could be part of a larger design to expand Congress in 1967. Since then, the two Dravid- its electoral footprint. The fact that the party is ian parties, the DMK (Dravida Munnetra in power at the Centre makes it a strong ally for a Kazhagam), and its offshoot, the AIADMK (All THE DRAVIDIAN regional party like the AIADMK, especially in the India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam), LEGACY absence of a powerful icon like Jayalalithaa. have ruled the state. The DMK has won on five Our cover story, ‘The Great Poll Opera’, has occasions since 1967 and the AIADMK seven been written by Deputy Editor Amarnath K. times since 1977. The first AIADMK govern- Menon, who has covered Tamil Nadu for 43 ment was dismissed in three years but the party years now. “The AIADMK,” he says, “is invok- won the following election in 1980. ing Amma’s benevolence, welfare measures and In 2016, J. Jayalalithaa’s magnetism and her development to woo voters, while the DMK is populist politics helped her buck anti-incum- targeting it for alleged poor governance and cor- bency and return to power. She passed away ruption.” AIADMK leaders are famously wary later that year. Her principal opponent, DMK of sharing access and information freely. The patriarch and the state’s longest-serving chief February 15, 1989 only time Jayalalithaa granted Menon a media minister, Karunanidhi, died two years later at interview was in June 1982, days before MGR the age of 94. The demise of these two Dravid- inducted her into the AIADMK. Scheduled to ian stalwarts and the unprecedented vacuum meet at her Poes Garden residence, Jayalalithaa it left in the state’s politics was heightened last asked her staff to bring a bulky Panasonic cas- December when superstar Rajinikanth an- sette player to record their conversation. The nounced his exit from political contention. DMK, like most regional parties in the south, This is what makes the upcoming election continues to be a family affair and equally intol- in Tamil Nadu so different. Yet, one also feels erant of anything adverse in the media. a sense of anticipation in the run-up to the This time around, the election looks poised election just two months away. Chief Minister May 30, 2011 for what could be a nail-biting finish. The E.K. Palaniswami and Deputy CM O. Pan- AIADMK, which won 40.88 per cent of the votes neerselvam have successfully run the AIADMK in 2016, was only marginally ahead of the DMK, government in the past four and a half years. Having car- which garnered a 39.85 per cent vote share. Voting in the ried forward the dole politics of MGR-Jayalalithaa, they are state is not based on any one dominant caste but on multiple invoking Amma’s legacy again to ask for another five-year caste groups. Hence, both parties have turned to smaller term, dedicating museums and memorials to the leader caste-based parties like the PMK and the DMDK to shore up and, more recently, a Rs 12,000 crore farm loan waiver. their winnability. The AIADMK, which needs a majority in Pitted against them is the 67-year-old M.K. Stalin, the 234-seat assembly, is unlikely to cede more than 70 seats Karunanidhi’s political heir and the present DMK chief. to alliance partner BJP and the smaller parties. There is also Jayalalithaa’s long-time associate V.K. Sasikala There is also movie star Kamal Haasan’s recently-launched a.k.a. ‘Chinamma’. She seemed poised to seamlessly inherit political party Makkal Needhi Maiam (MNM), which is con- Jayalalithaa’s mantle till she was sent to prison in Karnataka testing all seats as a third front. However, while Haasan may in a disproportionate assets case in 2017 and ejected from be a popular actor, politically, he is a bantamweight. the party. Her recent return to Chennai at the head of a long- The forthcoming Tamil Nadu poll is certainly an un- winding motorcade was movie star-like. However, it remains precedented one and the result uncertain. For that reason, to be seen whether her influence will extend beyond the four perhaps, it is also a most-awaited election. districts dominated by her Thevar community. At stake in this political battle is a state which sends 39 members to the Lok Sabha, the fifth-largest block of seats. It is also a heavily industrialised state and boasts of having India’s second-largest economy by nominal GDP—Rs 18.45 lakh crore—nearly the same as Pakistan’s. According to the (Aroon Purie)

FEBRUARY 22, 2021 INDIA TODAY 5 UPFRONT LEISURE WEST BENGAL: A DALER MEHNDI: THREE-FRONT WAR PG 7 AT LARGE PG 59 www.indiatoday.in MINE GAMES Q&A WITH AT PANNA VIDHU VINOD CHAIRMAN AND EDITOR-IN-CHIEF: Aroon Purie VICE CHAIRPERSON: Kalli Purie PG 10 CHOPRA PG 66 GROUP CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER: Dinesh Bhatia GROUP EDITORIAL DIRECTOR: Raj Chengappa CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER: Manoj Sharma GROUP CREATIVE EDITOR: Nilanjan Das; GROUP PHOTO EDITOR: Bandeep Singh MANAGING EDITORS: Kai Jabir Friese, Rajesh Jha EXECUTIVE EDITORS: S. Sahaya Ranjit, Sandeep Unnithan, Manisha Saroop; MUMBAI: M.G. Arun SENIOR DEPUTY EDITOR: HYDERABAD: Amarnath K. Menon DEPUTY EDITORS: Kaushik Deka, Shwweta Punj SENIOR EDITORS: Sasi Nair, Anilesh S. Mahajan MUMBAI: Suhani Singh; JAIPUR: Rohit Parihar SENIOR ASSOCIATE EDITORS: Ashish Mukherjee MUMBAI: Kiran Dinkar Tare; PATNA: Amitabh Srivastava ASSOCIATE EDITORS: Sonali Acharjee KOLKATA: Romita Sengupta; BHOPAL: Rahul Noronha ASSISTANT EDITORS: Zinnia Ray Chaudhuri, Aditya Wig PHOTO DEPARTMENT: Yasir Iqbal (Deputy Chief Photographer), Rajwant Singh Rawat (Principal Photographer), Chandra Deep Kumar (Senior Photographer); MUMBAI: Mandar Suresh Deodhar (Chief Photographer) PHOTO RESEARCHERS: Prabhakar Tiwari (Chief Photo Researcher), Saloni Vaid (Principal Photo Researcher), CHIEF OF GRAPHICS: Tanmoy Chakraborty ART DEPARTMENT: Sanjay Piplani (Senior Art Director); Angshuman De (Art Director); Devajit Bora (Deputy Art Director); Vikas Verma (Associate Art Director); Siddhant Jumde (Senior Illustrator) PRODUCTION DEPARTMENT: Harish Agarwal (Chief of Production), Naveen Gupta (Chief Coordinator)

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BMC POLLS: NEW DELHI’S MISSION MUMBAI MYANMAR TEST PG 14 UPFRONT PG 18

JOINT ACTION A CPI(M)-Congress demonstration in Kolkata against the Hathras gangrape

SUBIR HALDER

WEST BENGAL ELECTION THE THIRD DIMENSION By Romita Datta

broad ‘secular’ alliance is in Siddiqui is the 33-year-old pirzada Dalits, Adivasis, backward classes the works in the run-up to the of the Furfura Sharif shrine, which and the Hindu Matuas, and promises West Bengal assembly election, controls over 3,000 mosques in Bengal Muslims and other ‘weaker sections’ with the Congress-Left com- and holds sway among Muslims in a new deal based not on appeasement bine warming to influential the South Bengal districts of Hooghly, politics but their rightful place in soci- AMuslim cleric Abbas Siddiqui and his Howrah, South 24 Parganas and ety. “We will play kingmaker this time Indian Secular Front (ISF), launched North 24 Parganas. His ISF includes (assembly election),” Siddiqui tells the on January 21. eight organisations, representing surging crowd at one of the numerous

FEBRUARY 22, 2021 INDIA TODAY 7 UPFRONT

GETTY IMAGES rallies he has been holding. They cheer Scheduled Tribes and marginalised in support. Hindus,” said Mishra. Congress leader The Congress and the Left have Abdul Mannan wrote to party chief finalised seat distribution in 230 of the Sonia Gandhi that an alliance with 294 constituencies and are reportedly Siddiqui could be the “game changer” ready to give Siddiqui a chunk of the re- in the election as the cleric is popular maining 60-odd seats. Siddiqui is cold “not only among Muslims but Dalits to the offer. “If interested in an alliance, and tribals [as well]”. they (Congress-Left) should begin seat- Muslims make up about 30 per sharing negotiations with me. I gather cent of Bengal’s 100 million electorate. they have finalised 230 seats between A quarter of them are concentrated in themselves. That does not leave too many options for me,” he says. Seat distribution isn’t the only im- SEAT-SHARING pediment. Any electoral pact between ISN’T THE ONLY the three parties will also hinge on HURDLE. THE Siddiqui willing to dissociate him- CONGRESS-LEFT self from Asaduddin Owaisi and his AIMIM (All India Majlis-e-Ittehad- EXPECT SIDDIQUI ul-Muslimeen)—seen by many as the TO DISSOCIATE ‘BJP’s B team’. Owaisi plans to contest HIMSELF FROM the Bengal election and has been in ASADUDDIN OWAISI talks with Siddiqui.

he Congress and the Left want the four districts where the Furfura party. Muslims have come to realise to keep Owaisi at arm’s length Sharif (read: Siddiqui) has mass fol- that Mamata and the BJP complement given how the AIMIM queered lowing. Of the 125 Muslim-dominated each other,” he says. T the pitch for the opposition assembly seats in the state, the Con- Congress leaders feel a pact with grand alliance in the Bihar election by gress and the Left won 40 in 2016 and Siddiqui—but without the AIMIM— splitting the Muslim vote. They are also finished runner-up in the remaining will help their party retain its hold over apprehensive that Owaisi’s brand of 85. With Siddiqui on their side, the its traditional bastions of Murshidabad politics, laced with communal rhetoric, new front could make a killing at the (South Bengal) and North Dinajpur may further polarise the electorate. expense of the TMC. “After pulling and Malda (North Bengal). For over Bengal delivered a highly polarised away the Muslim vote from us, Ma- a year, the AIMIM has been trying to verdict in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, mata Banerjee has tried to retain them make inroads into these districts and with the TMC and the BJP garner- with tall promises. But now, Muslims chip away at the Congress’s Muslim ing about 83 per cent of the total votes are ready to abandon the TMC—they base built over decades by heavy- (43.3 per cent and 40 per cent, respec- are exploring a safer alternative that weights like Adhir Chowdhury and the tively). A post-poll survey by CSDS- can fight the BJP ideologically,” says late A.B.A. Ghani Khan Chowdhury. Lokniti showed how the religious CPI(M) politburo member Md Salim. The Congress is dead against giv- binary ate into Left and Congress votes. The BJP is well aware of the dam- ing up any seats for Siddiqui in South The survey found that about 40 per cent age the Congress-Left can inflict, with Dinajpur, Malda and Murshidabad. of the traditional Left supporters voted none other than Prime Minister Nar- The ISF founder reportedly wants 40 for the BJP and over 30 per cent for the endra Modi leading the charge against seats in South Bengal, where 72 of TMC. Among the Congress supporters, them. At a rally in Haldia on February the 125 Muslim-dominated seats are 32 per cent shifted to the BJP and 29 7, Modi accused the Congress-Left located. The Left is okay with the de- per cent to the TMC. and the TMC of “match-fixing” to mand as it believes this will help break So far, the Left and the Congress defeat the BJP. the TMC stranglehold on the Muslim have made all the right noises to get Siddiqui, on his part, has been vote and cost Mamata dear. In the 2011 Siddiqui on board. Left Front chair- punching holes into Mamata’s image assembly poll, a 7 per cent swing in man Surjya Kanta Mishra called the of being a messiah of Muslims and the Muslim vote in favour of the TMC ISF a secular platform representing questions her claims of working for ended the Left’s 34-year rule in Bengal. the backward and the oppressed. their development. “Under Mamata’s “Muslims in Bengal want an end “Siddiqui has said that he is not only rule, the BJP secured 18 Lok Sabha to appeasement politics, but that won’t advocating the cause of Muslims seats in Bengal for the first time and be possible while the TMC is around. but also the Scheduled Castes, emerged as the principal opposition Rather than government doles, edu-

8 INDIA TODAY FEBRUARY 22, 2021 A NEW FORCE Abbas Siddiqui launches the Indian Secular Front in Kolkata on January 21

vote] from the Trinamool is visible. It will be complete once Muslims sense Mamata’s electoral prospects to be dim,” says former Presidency University principal Amal Kumar Mukhopadhyay. “Mamata is desper- ate to project that, despite defections from her party, her house is in order. She has been claiming at rallies that she will return to power and all her welfare schemes will continue.” The TMC and the BJP are, meanwhile, fighting the perception of being mirror images of each other. “The BJP made the Left’s task easier by filling its ranks with Trinamool leaders. People now see the two par- ties as one and the same,” says a Left- cated Muslim youth want jobs and a leaning professor from a renowned place in the administration and the university in Bengal. police,” says Abdul Khalek Mollah, In the previous general election, a TMC supporter from South 24 the Left Front had a vote share of just Parganas, who believes Siddiqui can 7 per cent, down from 30 per cent in truly empower Muslims. 2014. The erosion in support trans- If Muslims desert Mamata, they lated into a 20 per cent gain in vote will invariably opt for the proposed share for the BJP. In the upcoming Congress-Left-ISF combine, feel election, though, sections of the Left analysts. “A shift [of the Muslim cadre may have a rethink on voting for the BJP. With several question- able imports from Mamata’s party, including some facing corruption charges, many see the BJP as a worse 30 version of the TMC. million According to some Left workers Muslims in West Bengal’s 100 million electorate on the ground, once the dust settles, the electoral battle will narrow down to BJP vs. TMC. “The Left cadre, who have been at the receiving end of the 125 Trinamool’s atrocities for a decade, Assembly seats with a high will again vote with a vengeance for concentration of Muslims a change of government. While the presence of strong Muslim leader (Siddiqui) may swing some of the 40 Muslim vote, the Left’s Hindu voter Muslim-dominated has made up his mind,” says a former seats the Congress and Left local committee leader, probably Left won in the 2016 alluding to a slogan doing the rounds assembly election in poll-bound Bengal—‘Duhajar Ekushe Ram, Chhabishe Baam (Ram (read: BJP) in 2021, Left in 2026)’. n DIAMOND MINING MINE GAMES By Rahul Noronha

n January 1, diamond the closure of mining operations has locals support the mine and want it to mining operations in led to conservationists and govern- continue functioning,” Singh asserts. Madhya Pradesh’s Panna ment authorities butting heads. The NMDC operates the mine district, the biggest centre On January 3, Chief Minister in Majhgawan village, India’s only O for diamond mining in Shivraj Singh Chouhan announced mechanised diamond mine. The local India, came to a halt after its wildlife that the diamond mine in Majhgawan government also leases around 700 clearance ended on December 31, 2020. in Panna will not be closed down con- plots, each measuring 8x8 metres, to Panna is also home to a critical sidering the important role it plays in prospective private miners in the rest tiger reserve and, according to U.K. the lives of the people who live in the of the district. These small mining Sharma, field director of the Panna areas located nearby. “The Majhgawan units employ around 6,000 to 7,000 Tiger Reserve, the park manage- mines contribute over Rs 5 crore to people. For now, the state government ment wrote to the National Mineral the local economy,” says Shyamendra has put on hold any fresh leases for the Development Corporation (NMDC) of Singh, a former member of the state smaller mines. the government of India about shut- wildlife board. That estimate includes According to the Indian Bureau ting down operations as soon as the what mine employees spend as also of Mines, Madhya Pradesh, Andhra wildlife clearance expired. Predictably, the CSR initiatives of the NMDC. “The Pradesh and Chhattisgarh are the

10 INDIA TODAY FEBRUARY 22, 2021 UPFRONT

IN THE ROUGH The Majhgawan mine in Panna, Madhya Pradesh only states with diamond deposits in 84,000 only two shifts, our production remains the country, with Madhya Pradesh CARAT/ YEAR lower,” says Samar Bahadur Singh, gen- accounting for more than 90 per cent Capacity of Majhgawan eral secretary of the INTUC (Indian of these deposits. The mining capacity mine, Panna National Trade Union Congress) unit of the Majhgawan mine, according to of the Majhgawan mine. In 2019, the the NMDC website, is 84,000 carats a diamonds auctioned fetched around year. It claims that a total of 10,05,064 1,005,064 Rs 60 crore after payment of 11.5 per carat diamonds have been recovered CARAT cent royalty to the state government so far from the area and that the mine Diamonds mined and GST. In 2020, the action was called has an incidence of 10 carats per 100 so far off on account of Covid. tonnes of tuff material. “The diamond mines have given the people of Panna or around 3,000 years, India recognition across the world, [an hon- was the only producer of dia- our] which they would like to retain,” 847,000 F monds in the world until depos- adds Singh. CARAT its were found in Brazil and South However, a senior forest depart- Estimated unmined Africa. The Majhgawan mine, the ment official, who requested ano- diamonds in only source of diamonds in Asia, is nymity, tells a different story. “The Majhgawan, worth spread over 275 hectares of land of the production of the mine is low and approx. Rs 1,000 crore Gangau sanctuary, which is part of besides starting a bus service run- the Panna Tiger Reserve. Its lease was ning from Hinauta to Panna town, the last renewed in 2005 for 15 years on NMDC does not do much by way of the condition that it would phase out CSR,” he reveals. “Some areas should 785 operations by 2020. Madhya Pradesh People employed be left inviolate for wildlife, espe- mining minister Brajendra Pratap cially considering the fragile ecology in Majhgawan mine Singh, a native of Panna, has sup- of the region and history of threat to ported the extension of the lease and the tiger.” The Panna Tiger Reserve the state board for wildlife, which ear- is the only viable tiger habitat in the 80% lier supported a phased closing of the Bundelkhand region, spanning both India’s share of global mine, approved a proposal for wildlife Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh. polished diamond market clearance for the mine till 2035 on The mining activities, conservationists January 16. NMDC officials claim that have argued, harm the forest areas and the empowered committee of the hinder free movement of wildlife. The Supreme Court and the state wildlife Panna reserve saw a revival after being THE MINING board in 2005 had not mentioned declared bereft of tigers in December ACTIVITIES, a specific date by when the mining 2008. A tiger reintroduction pro- operations should cease. Interestingly, gramme was launched in March 2009 CONSERVATIONISTS Chief Minister Chouhan is also the and currently the tiger count at Panna SAY, HARM THE chairperson of the state wildlife board. is around 50. FOREST AREAS The proposal is now pending A senior NMDC official admitted, AND HINDER clearance by the National Board for on condition of anonymity, that the Wildlife. Insiders suggest that the viability of the mine had been impacted FREE MOVEMENT NMDC wants to expand the mine pit by the rules and regulations of the OF WILDLIFE by 10 hectares, of which 1.8 hectares national park. “There are 8.47 lakh falls within the Gangau sanctuary. carat diamonds worth Rs 1,000 crore Sources at Majhgawan, however, deny in the reserves. There is also a security that any extra area is being sought and issue. What happens to the diamonds operate a third as we can’t switch on say the broken area they have asked to if we have to close down the mine lights at night.” be cleared for mining falls within their indefinitely? The diamonds will have On average, the production from leased area. to be secured,” he says. “We are suf- the Majhgawan mine is around 40,000 It seems that, for now, the two jew- fering financially because of the park. carats a year. “Our target is around els of Panna, the diamonds and the We operate two shifts a day, but can’t 70,000 carats, but since we operate tigers, will have to learn to coexist. „

FEBRUARY 22, 2021 INDIA TODAY 11 UPFRONT

AERO INDIA 2021 LOCAL TAKEOFF INDIGENISATION OF INDIAN DEFENCE AVIATION GETS A BIG PUSH

By Sandeep Unnithan

n international airshow that will be retired this decade. Waiting in the wings are a spate with thousands of global India is the world’s second-largest of indigenous orders that could help visitors spending several importer of defence hardware and, reduce imports and build military avia- days in close proximity between 2014 and 2019, accounted for tion muscle, including a Rs 3,000 crore A would seem unlikely and 9.5 per cent of the world’s sales of weap- order for 15 Light Combat Helicopters possibly even controversial during a ons. Fighter jets and transport aircraft (LCH) for the IAF and an order esti- pandemic. The world’s two largest air- make up the costliest import compo- mated to be worth over Rs 7,000 crore shows—held in Farnborough, scheduled nent by value. The IAF, for instance, for 106 HAL HTT-40 trainer aircraft, for July 2020, and in Paris, due in June plans to acquire 110 multirole combat which are to be concluded soon. The 2021—were cancelled. Possibly the big- aircraft for close to $20 billion (Rs 1.4 government-owned HAL (Hindustan gest achievement, then, of Aero India, lakh crore) and the Centre plans to Aeronautics Ltd) is currently India’s the biennial Bengaluru airshow, Asia’s spend around $130 billion (Rs 9.47 prime aircraft-making contractor, but largest, was the fact that it was held as lakh crore) on military modernisa- this monopoly could end soon when a a physical event. However, attendance tion over the next five years. Achieving Rs 15,000 crore order for a joint ven- was less than half of what earlier edi- self-reliance in defence production is a ture between European aviation major tions have seen, and the only flight dis- key target for the government. Defence Airbus and Tata Advanced Systems for plays and parked aircraft were those of minister Rajnath Singh announced building 56 C-295 medium transport the Indian Air Force. Yet it was a signal a plan to slash defence imports by $2 aircraft locally will create a parallel that India was open for business. billion (Rs 14,564 crore) by the end capability in the private sector. The other big achievement of Aero of 2022 and also hoped to increase “Aero India was the first major event India was showcasing the government’s defence exports by $5 billion (Rs 36,410 after the launch of the Aatmanirbhar clear focus on the indigenisation of the crore) by 2025. There is also the ongo- policy last May and it showed our com- defence aviation industry. Military avia- ing military standoff with China in mitment to self-sufficiency in defence tion is the acme of the arms industry eastern Ladakh driving the need for in action,” says Raj Kumar, secretary and enormously expensive. A single IAF top-of-the-line military hardware. (defence production). Over the past Rafale fighter jet can cost as much as 20 few months, the political and IAF brass T-90 tanks. Militaries operate a massive have flown sorties in indigenous aircraft range of aircraft—trainer aircraft, fight- to endorse Indian designed and built ers, tankers, various transport aircraft helicopters and fighter jets. The change and helicopters. Nurturing an indig- in focus driven by the political execu- enous aviation ecosystem is time-con- tive has brought together agencies that suming and needs huge investments of otherwise operate in silos. The LCA cost and attention. India has only begun Tejas, for instance, was going nowhere to take baby steps in this direction. in a three-legged race between the IAF, As part of its ‘vocal for local’ pitch, the DRDO’s Aeronautical Development the government placed a Rs 48,000 NURTURING AN Agency (ADA) and HAL. The LCA crore order for 83 LCA Tejas light com- INDIGENOUS was, for the most part, an ADA project. bat aircraft for the IAF at the airshow— AVIATION ECOSYSTEM The IAF, disappointed by develop- the single-largest contract for the Indian IS TIME-CONSUMING ment delays, looked for off-the-shelf defence industry. The 123 LCAs (40 jets imported fighter aircraft to replenish in a basic variant were ordered a decade AND CALLS FOR HUGE its depleted fighter squadrons—it has ago) will replace an equal number of INVESTMENTS OF only 30 as against a sanctioned strength ageing MiG-21 Bison fighter aircraft COST AND ATTENTION of 42. HAL, meanwhile, sought easier

12 INDIA TODAY FEBRUARY 22, 2021 WALKING THE TALK

IN A BONANZA FOR INDIGENOUS DEFENCE AVIATION, THE GOVERNMENT HAS AWAR CONTRACTS WORTH Rs 4 E, WITH options, like build-to-print solutions ANOTHE CRORE WORTH such as licensed assembly of the Russian ORDERS IN THE PIPELIN designed Su-30 MKI. This led to a situation where a heavy fighter like the 17-tonne Su-30MKI, rather than a medi- um-weight aircraft, became the IAF’s most numerous fighter aircraft. A senior IAF official mentions how the LCA began appearing in HAL calendars only after 2015. HAL officials mention how the IAF’s lack of faith has had promis- LCA Tejas ing projects like the LCH and HTT-40 der value circling the skies for orders for the past five years. The massive order for the LCA Tejas significantly boosts the prospects of an indigenous family of fighter aircraft. Status: Contract handed over to HAL on Feb 3 he ADA is rolling out the first pro- totype of the Tejas Mark-2 next Tyear. A prototype of the ambitious Gen 5 fighter aircraft, the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), will THE PIPELINE fly in 2024. The Twin Engined Deck- HTT-40 basic Based Fighter (TED-BF), an indigenous trainer aircraft programme to replace the navy’s fleet Estimated value of carrier-borne MiG-29Ks, will fol- ` low two years later. No other country in 7,000 cr recent years will have rolled out as many prototypes in such a short time-frame as Status: Cleared by Defence ADA plans to this decade—churning out Acquisition Council (DAC) in fighter aircraft to replace imported vari- August 2020; RFP issued by IAF to ants like the MiG-29, Mirage-2000 and HAL for 70 aircraft on Feb 4 Jaguar. ADA director Girish Deodhare predicts India will be entirely self-suf- ficient in fighter aircraft by 2035 and will produce manned and unmanned jet fighters in every category other than the heavy Su-30MKI segment. These are ambitious deadlines and the government will do well to hold developers to them. C-295 Transport Status: Pending There are technological breakthroughs CCS (Cabinet yet to be made. Only 50 per cent of the aircraft Estimated value Committee 83 Tejas LCA, for instance, is indig- To be manufactured by a ` on Security) enous. The phased array radar and the Tata-Airbus combine 15,000cr approval engines are being imported from Israel and the US, respectively. The indigenous versions are still in development and will Light Attack equip later variants of the Tejas Mark Helicopter 1A fighters. The AMCA calls for a range timated value of cutting-edge technologies like stealth ` and supercruise and data fusion if it is to 3,000 cr qualify as a true Gen 5 fighter jet. But a huge start has been made and the future, atus: To be signed at least for now, appears bright. „ March 2021

FEBRUARY 22, 2021 INDIA TODAY 13 UPFRONT

BMC ELECTION 2022 Mission Mumbai By Kiran D. Tare MANDAR DEODHAR MANDAR

n January 29, Maha­ in electoral politics in 1997. This time, departure from his earlier practice of rashtra chief minister political observers believe he faces a mainly working from his personal/ Uddhav Thackeray stiff challenge from the BJP, which has official residence, he is now making unveiled the first driver­ greatly expanded its base in the city in frequent field visits. On December 27 less coach of the Mumbai the past couple of years. last year, he inspected the work on the Metro.O The moment was significant in The driverless coach will run on 29.2 km coastal road, which connects light of the controversy that rages over the Dahisar­D.N. Nagar metro line 2A south Mumbai to the north through the the future of the three metro lines in the and Dahisar­Andheri East metro line sea route. On January 11, he revisited city. The Thackeray­led Maharashtra 7, which are scheduled to open in May. the spot at Priyadarshini Park in south Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government is Thackeray says the next 3­4 years are Mumbai to launch a coastal road tunnel fighting a legal battle with the Centre important for the city as many metro boring machine, which he named the over possession of a 210 acre plot of corridors will start operations. ‘Mavla’ (a soldier in Shivaji’s army). The land in Kanjurmarg, where the metro The Thackeray government has road is expected to open by July 2023. car depot is supposed to be built. other city infrastructure and beautifica­ Two days later, Thackeray reviewed the While inaugurating the coach, tion projects lined up over the next year progress of two important city projects, Thackeray called the metro a future or so, which Uddhav must hope will the Bandra­Versova Sea Link (BVSL) attraction for Mumbai. “I was criti­ demonstrate his commitment to the city and its extension till Virar. The 43 km cised for staying works but that is ahead of the BMC poll. Also, in a visible sealink will be completed in two phases not true…you can see that work on by 2025. Once open, it will reduce travel a lot of public infrastructure is near­ time between Nariman Point in south ing completion,” he said. Critics say Mumbai and Virar in Palghar district— Thackeray’s enthusiasm is directly THE SHIV SENA’S HOLD a distance of 90 km—to one hour from linked to the BMC (Brihanmumbai OVER THE BMC, ASIA’S the current three hours. Municipal Corporation) election, due RICHEST CIVIC BODY, A month after taking over as chief in February 2022. The BMC happens IS BEING CONTESTED minister on November 28, 2019, to be the richest civic body in Asia, with BY THE BJP, WHICH Thackeray had instructed bureaucrats an annual budget of Rs 39,000 crore. to focus on Mumbai’s beautification. The Shiv Sena has kept a tight grip on HAS EXPANDED “If someone takes a bird’s eye view of the BMC ever since Uddhav’s debut GREATLY IN MUMBAI Mumbai, he will find cables hanging on

14 INDIA TODAY FEBRUARY 22, 2021 THE NEW WAY Coastal Road work in progress at Marine Drive in Mumbai, Jan. 31

in 2017, the BJP (82) fell only two seats short of the Sena’s tally of 84. This is a phenomenal rise considering the saff­ ron party had only 32 members in the previous elections in 2012. The 2022 BMC poll will test Thack­ eray’s mettle as the BJP is likely to have an alliance with the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), another champion of Marathi votes. “If the BJP does not object, we are ready for an alli­ ance,” says Bala Nandgaonkar, second­ in­command in the MNS. If the party manages to cut into the Shiv Sena’s vote share, the BJP will gain, and might even emerge the single­largest party. Thackeray is aware of this. He has already begun talks with the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the Samajwadi Party (SP) about roads and dirty pavements,” Thackeray, joining hands for the BMC election. also an avid wildlife photographer, said Observers say such an alliance could at a meeting. A facelift for the city has BATTLE LINES hurt the Sena’s Hindu support base. The been on the agenda ever since and sev­ DRAWN Mumbai Congress president, Ashok eral traffic islands, flyovers and bridges The Shiv Sena has so far held Jagtap, has already made it clear that are getting a makeover. its own in Mumbai but the his party will go solo in the election. On January 28, the CM launched a BJP is catching up Sena spokesperson Sanjay Raut says the heritage walk programme at the iconic party’s position in Mumbai is stronger BMC building, situated in front of the BMC than before: “Mumbai has always voted Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj Terminus, (227 seats) for the Shiv Sena. The next election will a world heritage site. The walk is not be an exception.” Atul Bhatkhalkar 75 31 designed as a tour of the historic build­ 52 84 of the BJP, who is in charge of Mumbai, 69 82 ing from where Mumbai’s administra­ 31 2012 2017 30 has other ideas though. “Mumbai needs tion has run since 1885. The tour lasts a change if it’s looking for good gover­ an hour and includes a question­and­ LOK SABHA nance,” he says. “We are the only option.” answer session at the end. The heritage (6 seats) Thackeray may review his BMC tours will be conducted on the week­ strategy after the next phase of ends and citizens, who are otherwise 3 3 3 3 municipal corporation elections in not allowed into restricted areas, can 2014 2019 Navi Mumbai, Aurangabad, Kalyan­ book tickets for Rs 300. Dombivli, Vasai­Virar and Kolhapur. ASSEMBLY These are likely to be held in March. ipping at Uddhav’s heels, how­ (36 seats) Uddhav is also trying to woo the city’s ever, is the BJP whose rise can Gujarati voters, sending out signals 5 5 be judged from the party’s per­ that he is an inclusive leader. If the N 15 14 16 14 formance in the assembly as well as 2014 2019 Sena wins the Navi Mumbai and BMC election. The party had 16 MLAs 2 1 Aurangabad corporations, he will from the city (out of 36) in the 2019 continue with his inclusive politics. A BJP Congress election while the Sena maintained its Shiv Sena Others defeat, though, might push him back to 2014 tally of 14. As for the BMC poll, his ‘Marathi manoos’ agenda. n Graphic by TANMOY CHAKRABORTY

FEBRUARY 22, 2021 INDIA TODAY 15 GLASSHOUSE DOWN WITH DYNASTY

onal Modi, niece of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Swas recently denied a V-DAY ticket by the BJP to contest the Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation DIVERSION election, to be held on February he BJP’s Madhya Pradesh 21. In the first week of February, Tunit had to shift a training the Gujarat unit of the BJP issued session for its MLAs and a new set of rules, including one executive members, sche du- against the distribution of tickets led for February 12 and 13, to relatives of any party leader, from Pachmarhi. The hotels and even Sonal’s impressive family at the picturesque hill station, connections failed to persuade it turned out, were all booked state BJP president C.R. Paatil to up for the Val entine’s Day make an exception. An upset Sonal weekend. The organisers claimed she wanted to contest the finally zeroed in on the temple election as a sincere BJP worker town of Ujjain. Frivolous and not as the PM’s relative, but distractions, after all, can’t her protests were in vain. Paatil, stop serious-minded pursuits. though, has won the PM’s praise for his firm decision. Could this be a subtle message to the dynasts in the saffron party? ANI

Illustration by SIDDHANT JUMDE

TWITTER’S NEW BIHARI BABU MILIND SHELTE ormer Bihar chief minister KRISHNA FJitan Ram Manjhi is the state’s newest Twitter celebrity. By Virtually M the look of it, the 766-year-old has URARI Speaking taken to tweetingg like a fish KI

to water. He recently asked S n February 5, Uttar opposition leaders criticising HA N OPradesh deputy the Bihar police to give CM Keshav Prasad Need for Speed up security if theyy Maurya launched a didn’t believe in the “Samadhan e-Complaint” aharashtra chief minister Uddhav state police. He also web portal and a “Janta MThackeray has entrusted the responded to somme Darshan” mobile app for Maharashtra State Road Development anti-Nitish (Kummar, people to digitally log Corporation Ltd (MSRDC) with the task Bihar CM) tweetts their complaints. The app of documenting his government’s efforts by the LJP’s can be downloaded from to battle Covid. So, why did he not pick Chirag Paswan the Google Play Store or one of the three health agencies in the and RJD’s Tejashhwi from the Public Works state instead? Turns out, MSRDC man- Yadav, asking Department website. aging director Radheshyam Mopalwar them to make This is meant to replace is known for his speedy implementation their alliance pubblic. the janata darshan held of projects and the CM needs the docu- Manjhi has now in Lucknow, which was ment ready well ahead of the BMC requested Twitter to suspended during the election due in February 2022. verify his accountt. lockdown.

—Sandeep Unnithan with Kiran D. Tare, Amitabh Srivastava, Rahul Noronha and Ashish Misra UPFRONT

BOOKS

journalism to make a slightly differ- ent point. For a long spell, particularly A HALF-OPEN during prime minister P.V. Narasimha Rao’s years, Nikhil Chakravarty was WINDOW the most well-informed journalist in New Delhi. It is difficult to imagine By Saeed Naqvi such a colleague during the current bleak phase. Never has India’s capital city been so short on information. Sources of information now shrink even from each other. Nikhil da would set out early in the morning. After touching every pos- sible information base, including P.V. himself, he would turn up at the India BYY MANY A International Centre where a bevy of HAPPYP ACCIDENT pundits would accost him. Nikhil da Recollectionse of a Life by Mohammmad Hamid Ansari kept the authorities’ confidence for the RUPA simple reason that he needed them for `7955; 350 pages replenishment of his information diet in an ever-continuing system. It was all cleverly consumed and without annoy- ing the sources of information. n honest critique of former among others, was arrested. Najibul- Hamid bhai has no such constraints vice-president Mohammad lah contacted the cabinet secretarial in now that he is out of office. Years of Hamid Ansari’s autobiog- New Delhi seeking Sarwari’s repatria- wisdom can no longer be prisoner to the A raphy, By Many a Happy tion for which he even sent a special Official Secrets Act. His career follow- Accident, is difficult. plane. “The Home Ministry insisted on ing his years in the foreign office was There is, in our society, no tradition legal processes being followed,” writes even more spectacular. Vice-chancellor for clinical criticism. Instead, we have a Ansari. In other words, repatriation of Aligarh Muslim University, vice-pres- culture of literary appreciation—polite was being delayed. ident of the Republic and, particularly, and deferential. In this culture, my per- “At a reception in the palace, the his role as chairman of Rajya Sabha— sonal equation with Hamid bhai, one President (Najibullah) asked me to stay these are all replete with events that of warmth, cannot but intervene. Even back until others had departed,” he make history. Each event deserves his so, reading the book, a question formed writes. He then walked up to An- reflection: where, when, why, how? itself in my mind quite spontaneously: sari and said in chaste Urdu: “Do you Now is the time for Hamid bhai to where are the sharp insights on events know that if I were not here, the flag shake himself out of a lifetime of bu- in this otherwise compelling narrative? of Pakistan would be flying over this reaucratic habits. He must now inform It is not that insights are absent. Some- building?” Only when Ansari touched us not only about what happened, but times they are embedded in the nar- all bases in New Delhi did the issue get provide diagnostics on when the rot rative itself. But where is Hamid bhai, resolved. An ambassador less resource- began to set in. We need collaborators in full form, when he had the universe ful than Ansari may well have failed. exposed from the inside. Hamid bhai, in his ken, analytical and penetrating, An incident like this would form a pay heed to Iqbal. in his ample drawing rooms in Kabul, nugget in Essence of Decision, Graham “Achha hai dil ke paas rahey Tehran or New York. T. Allison’s masterly analysis of the pasban-e-aql, Take this anecdote picked random- decision-making process in US presi- Lekin kabhi kabhi isey tanha bhi ly from the book: former president of dent Kennedy’s Washington during the chhod de Afghanistan, Mohammed Najibullah’s Cuban missile crisis—a seminal book. (Mind must guide the heart, rival for power, Asadullah Sarwari, Hamid bhai has in him several such But, occasionally, let the heart have was sent to pasture in Mongolia and studies which he could have farmed its way).” ■ Yemen. From Aden in Yemen, Sar- out to research scholars, but are such wari escaped to New Delhi where he studies even possible in an atmosphere Saeed Naqvi is a journalist was detected by the Afghan security of intellectual suffocation? and author of Being the Other: personnel. A scuffle followed. Sarwari, Let me turn to an example from The Muslim in India (2016)

FEBRUARY 22, 2021 INDIA TODAY 17 UPFRONT

GUEST COLUMN

GAUTAM MUKHOPADHAYA India’s Myanmar Tightrope

he February 1 military takeover in Myanmar over partnership with the military enterprise, Myanmar Economic what was essentially an election dispute marks yet Holdings, on its flagship ‘Myanmar’ beer. Thailand, which faces another fateful intervention against the popular will its own public movement against the military, will be watch- T in the country. Peaceful protests and civil disobedi- ing carefully. Both ASEAN and the UN Security Council have ence movements have erupted across Myanmar against the expressed “deep concern” at the declaration of emergency and military action that came on the day the new parliament was called for the release of all those detained, and respect for the to convene following a third landslide victory (after 1990 and popular will, stopping short of outright condemnation to recon- 2015) for the incumbent National League for Democracy cile differences among their members. Bangladesh will be mon- (NLD), headed by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi (now in detention), itoring the regime’s promise on repatriation of the Rohingyas. in the November 2020 national election. India, too, will be conflicted. Since its pragmatic engage- Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, on February 8, prom- ment with the Tatmadaw (Myanmar’s military administra- ised a return to multi-party democracy—once the poll results tion) around the turn of the millennium, India has developed could be rectified by a new Election Commission during the trust with both the military and the NLD, by keeping its one-year emergency period. So far, the defence training, supply and security military has refrained from use of force ties with the military separate from its and relied on telecom/ internet/ social political support for the popular will in media bans and partial curfews, but it Myanmar. This will be put to test. may just be a matter of time before ten- The view in some quarters that sions spill over into violence. India will be forced to do business with The coup has widespread implica- the Tatmadaw to keep China in check tions for the region and the world. In is flawed. While China enjoys greater 2016, as the US was transiting from leverage over Myanmar through its President Barack Obama to Donald strategic investments, influence over Trump, Suu Kyi’s resounding victory ethnic armed groups and veto power in in the November 2015 election stood the UNSC, it lacks the trust India has out as a vindication of democracy. acquired. India’s current term in the Now, after the US’s own brush with a UNSC will give it added weight. India’s near-right-wing ‘coup’, it is logical that response should keep in mind not just President Joe Biden makes the struggle So far, India has kept its China but its own long-term interest in for democracy a major plank of his for- military ties separate from nurturing ties with the people and econ- eign policy—Myanmar being its first its political support for the omy of Myanmar. The unusual joint visit test. Yet, first indications are that Biden by India’s foreign secretary and army is likely to continue a firm line with popular will in Myanmar. chief last October may have been crafted China on security issues, and given his This now faces a test with this in mind. appointment of veteran diplomat Kurt In the tussle between military and Campbell as point man for the Indo- people’s power, India should stand Pacific, the US is unlikely to determine its ‘Burma’ policy on a clearly with the people. But it should preserve its trust and rely single event or rely on blunt sanctions. on quiet diplomacy. It could curb economic ties, if any, with the China, which had been managing relations with Suu Kyi Tatmadaw while building on investments in connectivity infra- quite well, seems to have been caught off-guard, although it will structure and capacity-building, with a focus on the neglected take advantage of any international censure or sanctions against agro-economy on which most people in Myanmar depend. It Myanmar. The Tatmadaw’s relationship with Russia, a major could also take a lead in working with ASEAN and Japan in defence partner, has grown under Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, who bringing civilian rule back in Myanmar. ■ last July chose a Russian media channel for a veiled criticism of China’s support to Myanmar’s ethnic armed groups. Gautam Mukhopadhaya is a former ambassador to Syria, Europe and Australia have openly criticised the coup. Japan Afghanistan and Myanmar and currently Senior Visiting has been more circumspect, but Kirin Beer terminated its Fellow, Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi

18 INDIA TODAY FEBRUARY 22, 2021 Illustration by TANMOY CHAKRABORTY

COVER STORY TAMIL NADU THE POLL POTBOILER It’s Tamil Nadu’s first assembly election without its towering leaders. But the contest is still very much between the Dravidian heavyweights DMK and AIADMK. The national parties are likely to be bit players

By AMARNATH K. MENON

HORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK ON FEBRUARY 9, Vivekanan- da Krishnaveni Sasikala, released after four years in a Ben- galuru jail on charges of corruption, returned to Chennai to a grand welcome by supporters as well as some of the ruling AIADMK (All-India Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam) leaders. At several places en route, well-wishers greeted the 66-year- old leader with firecrackers and flowers (one reason why the usual six-hour journey took almost a day). She also stopped at a few temples on the way. At one point, she was offered a garland so heavy that it took a crane to bring it to her side. The breakaway AIADMK faction, the Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK), and her loyalists within the on the show. “The party (AIADMK) faced several struggles in the past, too, but has still risen like a phoenix. Amma (the late J. Jayalalithaa) told us how to run the AIADMK for another 100 years after her, and continuing her legacy, I’ll live the rest of my life for the development of the party. The party is family and the family is party…all the children of Jayalalithaa are my children too,” Sasikala told supporters, projecting herself as the heir to Jayalalithaa in the run-up to the assembly election in Tamil Nadu in April-May.

Photo illustration by NILANJAN DAS COVER STORY TAMIL NADU THE POLL TREND The AIADMK alliance has won two consec- utive assembly elections and also did well in the 2014 Lok Sabha poll when J. Jayalalithaa The ruling AIADMK has reason still led the party. But the party was routed in the 2019 general election. Both the BJP and to be worried. Its vote share has been Palaniswami the Congress have tested their strengths on the decline in every election since showed tact individually this decade in Tamil Nadu, only to 2011, hitting rock bottom at 18.7 per discover that piggybacking on Dravidian par- cent in the 2019 Lok Sabha election in burying the ties is the only way to better their vote share (see The Poll Trend). Then, there’s hatchet with the anti-incumbency from being 10 O. Panneer- years in power. In a swift reprisal, ASSEMBLY POLLS therefore, the AIADMK expelled selvam, getting SEATS party members who had facilitated the break- Total seats 234 Sasikala’s return-from-jail welcome 5 convoy, sending a clear signal that away faction 23 8 ‘Chinnamma’ (mother’s sister), as back and 150 136 89 allies still call her reverentially, re- 56 mains an outcast. forestalling a The Sasikala sideshow in the disintegration 1 past few days had taken the att- 2011 2016 ention away from the upcoming of the AIADMK VOTESHARE battle between the AIADMK and the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam 18.3% 27.7% (DMK), the first without its iconic leaders J. Jayalalithaa and M. 38.4% 6.4% 40.9% Karunanidhi. The two big parties of Dravidian politics had long 9.3% depended on these larger-than-life figures, worshipped by the rank % 31.6% and file. This time, the DMK is projecting M.K. Stalin, Karunani- 22.4 dhi’s son, as its chief ministerial candidate while the AIADMK 2.2% 2.8% too is pitching the incumbent E.K. Palaniswami (EPS) as its chief ministerial candidate.

THE ANTI-INCUMBENCY CHALLENGE LOK SABHA POLLS Chief Minister Palaniswami faces a particularly stiff challenge, for the SEATS AIADMK is trying to win a third successive term. He, too, is invok- Total seats 39 ing the Jayalalithaa legacy, which has the greatest resonance, while 1 also putting out his record in attracting investments and in gover- 37 24 8 nance—including a slew of welfare measures, notably the “Amma of 6 all loan waivers” for farmers. Announced on February 5, it seeks to write off Rs 12,110 crore worth of farm loans and benefit 1.64 million 11 farmers. It’s a continuation of the dole politics Dravidian parties have 2014 2019 followed since their early days in the 1960s, beginning with the rice VOTESHARE for ‘One Rupee per Madras Measure (slightly less than a kg)’ scheme announced by the first DMK chief minister C.N. Annadurai. “I am a % 22.3% 18.7 farmer. I waived the outstanding crop loans only because I intended 31.5% to remove all challenges facing farmers,” says CM Palaniswami. 4.3% 44.3% The collective impact of the sops, though, has been that Tamil 5.5% % 12.9% 33.2 Nadu has moved from being a revenue-surplus state to a revenue- 23.6% 3.7% deficit one between 2012 and 2019. On the positive side, as the 15th Finance Commission report noted in 2020, the state has been a frontrunner in many metrics in sustainable development goals like AIADMK DMK BJP INC Others poverty reduction, good health and well-being and quality education. Latching on to the development pitch, EPS has been travelling The DMK alliance includes the Congress and the extensively since the early Covid-19 days, proclaiming that the state AIADMK alliance includes the BJP except when TANMOY CHAKRABORTY TANMOY they contested separately was ahead of others in implementing containment measures during Others include the vote share of minor parties who the lockdown (except in the large Koyambedu market in Chennai, were not part of any alliance, independents

which turned out to be a super-spreader). At his rallies, he has em- by Graphic

22 INDIA TODAY FEBRUARY 22, 2021 THE TAMIL NADU GALAXY AIADMK K STARS RSRS

Amit Shah Thol. Rahul M.K. Stalin Vaikoo Thirumavalavan Gandhi

SATELLITES

S. Ramadoss

Vijayakant E.K. Palaniswami Kamal Haasan Rajinikanth V.K. Sasikala

SUPPORTING CAST The two Dravidian majors, DMK and AIADMK, have dominated the political landscape in Tamil Nadu, with the national parties, Congress and BJP, and several caste/ community cohorts content to play small parts. Prominent among these parties which secured more than one per cent of the vote in the past 10 years are:

PATTALI MAKKAL DESIYA MURPOKKU MARUMALARCHI VIDUTHALAI KATCHI (PMK) DRAVIDA KAZHAGAM DRAVIDA MUNNETRA CHIRUTHAIGAL S. Ramadoss (DMDK) KAZHAGAM (MDMK) KATCHI (VCK) The PMK founder is a fan of Vijayakant Vaiko Thol. the RSS, wants the cadre to The actor, also known as A Rajya Sabha MP for long, the Thirumavalavan follow its methods the ‘Karuppu (Black) MGR’, ex-Karunanidhi acolyte is a Has a militant streak, The party of the Vanni- is ailing; the party is now staunch supporter of the rights espouses the cause of yars, a dominant OBC steered by wife Premalatha, of Sri Lankan Tamils Dalits and Tamil nationalism caste in northern Tamil also the party treasurer A DMK breakaway group, Formerly the Dalit Nadu, has a 5 five per The DMDK is demand- it has returned to the fold Panthers, the VCK is an cent share of the vote. ing 41 seats, the same after a few years in the unrecognised registe- The party is known to number it had got from wilderness and defeat in red party. Its confron- use violence for political the AIADMK (it had won the 2016 assembly election. tation with the PMK has gains. Economic develop- 29 seats then) in 2011. But The alliance helped Vaiko’s led to frequent clashes ment has enabled a large the party has since seen party win a seat in the 2019 between the Dalits and section of Vanniyars to bad times, not winning Lok Sabha poll under the the Vanniyars. Thiru- evolve into a land owning a single seat in the 2016 DMK’s symbol. This elec- mavalavan was elected agricultural caste in rural assembly or the 2019 Lok tion, the MDMK may fight to the Lok Sabha in 2019 Tamil Nadu. The party did Sabha election under their own symbol with the DMK’s help not win a seat in the 2016 assembly or 2019 Lok Of these parties, the PMK and DMDK are likely to be AIADMK allies. The others, including the CPI Sabha polls and CPI(M), enjoy a small but stable vote base with the potential for reliable transfer to the DMK

FEBRUARY 22, 2021 INDIA TODAY 23 COVER STORY TAMIL NADU

phasised how the AIADMK, “following in the footsteps of of the party’s anecdotal history. Amma”, strives for people’s welfare and has drawn inves- But, then, there’s also the tact he showed in burying tors and created job opportunities. Of course, Amma still the hatchet with his immediate predecessor O. Panneer- remains central to all plans and hence EPS has been unveil- selvam, and the way he got the breakaway faction led by ing memorials and statues of Jayalalithaa all over the state. OPS back into the AIADMK, forestalling the anticipated The political trajectory of EPS, barely a year younger disintegration of the AIADMK after Jayalalithaa. All this than Stalin, in Tamil Nadu politics is neither as rich nor as while also steering the government and never losing sight long as that of the DMK chief. A farmer by profession, he joined the AIADMK in the 1980s, and threw his weight behind Jayalalithaa when the party split after the death In a swift reprisal, the of founder M.G. Ramachandran (MGR) in 1987. Inside the AIADMK, he is perceived as a doer, and in the state AIADMK expelled partymen administration as a pragmatic, down-to-earth politician. who facilitated Sasikala’s This has contributed to his smooth transition into the role of chief minister. But after the developments of 2017, people welcome convoy, sending are also a bit wary of him. The manner in which he won a clear signal that the confidence of Sasikala, who was calling the shots after Jayalalithaa’s untimely demise, or the way he turned on her ‘Chinnamma’ was after she’d handpicked him for the top job ,is all now part still an outcast

24 INDIA TODAY FEBRUARY 22, 2021 In Amma’s Name Invoking the AIADMK icon is the party’s topline strategy for the upcoming poll

odelled after the mytho- and said the ‘convict’ tag was logical phoenix bird, the removed after her death. “DMK MRs 80 crore memorial chief M.K. Stalin used a benami to for J. Jayalalithaa can be easily oppose the memorial. It shows his spotted from a distance, tower- evil intentions,” Palaniswami said ing above those of her political at the inauguration. predecessors—C.N. Annadurai, The next day, the CM also M.G. Ramachandran (MGR) and M. inaugurated another memo- Karunanidhi—whose remains are rial—Veda Nilayam, Amma’s home also interred within the complex in Chennai. This, however, was built on Chennai’s Marina beach. a low-key event in view of the With the assembly poll due in Madras High Court order against April, the memorial’s inaugura- opening the memorial to the pub- tion on January 27 by CM E.K. lic. Jayalalithaa’s legal heirs, niece Palaniswami was a strategic J. Deepa and nephew J. Deepak, move by the ruling AIADMK. had objected to the inaugural on The memorial complex also the grounds that the inventory of houses a museum and a knowl- the articles inside the bungalow edge park, which offer state- was not done in their presence. of-the-art digital experiences On February 4, while hearing and interactive content about the petition filed by Jayalalithaa’s Jayalalithaa’s life, both personal legal heirs against the act passed and political. The complex will by the state to build a memorial open for the public on February for Jayalalithaa, Chief Justice 24—Amma’s birth anniversary. Sanjib Banerjee said, “We don’t Still Going In April 2019, the Supreme mean any disrespect, but you Strong Court had declined to consider a can’t keep doing this for succes- Sasikala’s supp- plea challenging the construction sive chief ministers.” orters throng of the memorial. In the plea, the For Palaniswami, though, her car as she arrives in petitioner had argued that since keeping Amma’s memory alive is Chennai, Feb. 9 Jayalalithaa was a convict in a essential for the AIADMK in the disproportionate assets case, the upcoming poll. The government state shouldn’t spend money from also has plans to set up a new of governance goals. EPS may have started off the public exchequer for the me- university in her name by bifur- as the lesser-known leader, but he built on his morial. The petition came before cating the existing Thiruvalluvar accidental accession with canny opportunism the apex court after the Madras University. Amma may be gone, and is now a familiar face through his travels and High Court dismissed it in 2019 but she will never be forgotten. publicity blitz.

DRAVIDIAN BASTIONS LARGER THAN LIFE But 10 years in power do take a toll and DMK chief EPS inaugurates Stalin is hoping to capitalise on this. He has run a Jayalalithaa’s spirited and nuanced campaign since March last memorial in year. The 67-year-old has been around since the Chennai early 1970s, has been the mayor of Chennai and deputy chief minister under his father and, as party president, is the undisputed leader of the DMK. Ahead of the previous assembly election in 2016,Stalin went on the ‘Namakku Naame (By us, for us)’ roadshow, travelling 1,100 km over five months to take stock of conditions of the ground realities across the state. The tour helped present

ANI COVER STORY TAMIL NADU

Stalin as a mass leader, but the DMK alliance still ended up crippled by the lockdown. Anyone in need of a service could losing the 2016 election narrowly (by a mere one percentage call a Stalin helpline number and a party volunteer would point vote share, 39.8 to 40.9 per cent) to the AIADMK. shoe up to address those needs. The AIADMK got a second term with 136 seats in the Alongside, the DMK also launched ‘Ellorum Nam- 234-seat house, the DMK got 89 but was let down by allies, mudan (All Are with Us)’, an online membership drive including the Congress, which managed just eight seats. through which over two million people have registered as For the 2021 election, Stalin has been banking on a members of the party. Stalin says the drive was to bring lot more than roadshows. In February 2020, despite the together like-minded people to tackle issues pertaining to scepticism of DMK veterans, he hired Prashant Kishor’s education and access to healthcare. With this, the party Indian Political Action Committee (I-PAC) to devise novel has streamlined the process of the district secretaries con- strategies to mobilise support after Covid-19 made physi- necting and discussing issues with the leader. This two- cal campaign tours of rural Tamil Nadu impossible. In its way communication is not just with party appointees and initial days, Stalin, through the Ondrinaivom‘ Vaa (Power members, but also with other supporters and well-wishers. of togetherness)’ campaign, reached out to migrant work- Later, under ‘Vidiyum Vaa (The Dawn Will Come)’, ers, daily wagers and the homeless, whose lives had been the DMK identified individuals who had worked for the

EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW M.K. STALIN

“We are driven by a desire to deliver the best to the people”

Q. How is this assembly cent by the BJP—that is election different from what makes this assembly earlier ones for the DMK? election different for us. A. Tamil Nadu was a People across the state are flourishing state, and looking to the DMK to over the past 10 years, the save Tamil Nadu and bring AIADMK has single- back its glory. handedly brought down its progress. Paazhaipona Q. What are the new ele- in the opposition. That is hundreds of thousands of pathu varudangal (10 ments in your campaign the real victory. petitions we have received years gone to waste) is and how is the strategy The biggest compli- shows the trust that people how I would describe the different this time? ment we have received is have in us and their eager- AIADMK’s rule. It has A. In the past five years, from the chief minister ness to see us win. completely surrendered my partymen and I have himself, who repeats every the rights of the state to continuously been among issue we raise and copies Q. What promises are you the Centre and is acting at the people, have constantly every promise we make. making to voters to sway the behest of the BJP-led interacted with them to Despite being an opposi- them in favour of central government, which understand their concerns, tion party, we are receiving the DMK? is completely detrimen- their dreams and aspira- petitions from the people, A. My first and foremost tal to the interests of the tions and have been with and we have provided an promise to the people is people of Tamil Nadu. them through their difficult assurance that they will to do whatever it takes to The state government is times. People have trusted be addressed within the preserve the rights of the controlled 50 per cent by us and constantly reached first 100 days of the DMK people of Tamil Nadu, un- the AIADMK and 50 per out to us, even while we are coming to power. The like the current AIADMK development of Tamil society and sent out personal ap- in different areas. The party has leveraged this to create preciation letters, signed by Stalin. He has also unveiled a close-knit neighbourhood WhatsApp groups to resolve Stalin ANI app to help ordinary people connect with party challenges. More than a million households across the state leaders online as well as to share party news and events. are linked through this network. By November, the DMK chief was holding a series of ‘Tamilagam Meetpom (Retrieve Tamil Nadu)’ virtual party CHALLENGES GALORE meetings with over 10,000 select party activists to step up There’s no denying that this election is poised for a keen the poll propaganda. “Our goal is Mission 200 (assembly battle between the DMK and AIADMK. The DMK sweep seats). We need just 117 seats to form the government but in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, when it won 38 of the total that will not make us proud. We can’t settle for anything 39 seats, and later the local body polls, where the AIADMK less than 200 seats,” Stalin said, addressing party activists made a comeback of sorts but still ended up second-best from all 234 constituencies. (214-plus district panchayat wards to the 243-plus for the To enhance the party’s public image, ‘Nallor Koodam DMK) makes for a heady contest now. The two parties also (All of Us)’, a proactive relief mechanism to connect those face common challenges, the biggest of which is handling in need roped in local kitchens to deliver food to the poor allies. Both the Congress and the BJP have, over the years, tried to offset their diminishing clout in the state by flaunt- ing their influence in Delhi. But they still have not made any major dent in the Dravidian bastions. Both will try to get a larger number of seats for themselves, but the DMK and AIADMK also have a string of minor allies to be kept in line and accommodated. It hasn’t helped their cause that government which has to everything we do and neither the BJP (less than 3 per cent) nor the Congress (less sold out the state’s inter- will also apply when we than 10 per cent) has managed a decent vote share in the ests to the Centre. My form the government past two assembly elections. In recent months, the BJP has second promise is to hear with the blessings of the flexed its muscles in an attempt to expand its influence people out—I am there people. In any case, this in the state, but hasn’t seen much success. “From a politi- and will be there for my is not unique—we are not cal perspective, the Dravidian polity has outsmarted the people, whether during the first party to do so, Hindutva leadership. The latter’s hopes of upstaging the the pandemic or other- nor will we be the last. In DMK and the AIADMK by, first, projecting Rajinikanth wise. My third promise the past, people used to as a third alternative, and then by promoting the National is to ensure that no one is design their own houses. Democratic Alliance (NDA) as a politico-electoral entity left behind when it comes Nowadays, architects has not quite panned out the way they had hoped,” says to support from the are hired. However, the political commentator N. Sathiya Moorthy. government. Beyond this, vision and resources Indeed, for the BJP, it has been a case of elaborate plans our manifesto committee belong to the owners of gone all wrong in 2020, be it the Vel Yatra, where it tried to has met with individuals, the house. stoke communal Hindutva sentiments or the propping up organisations and ex- of Rajinikanth as a counter to the AIADMK. The latter’s JAISON G perts, and is working on Q. The AIADMK has political no-show after keeping everyone on tenterhooks developing a manifesto raised the development- for the most part of last year forced the BJP to get back in that reflects the people’s versus-dynasty rheto- line with the AIADMK’s constellation of minion parties. wants and needs. ric, too. Will your son The domination of the two Dravida majors has in recent Udhayanidhi contest this decades spawned several smaller parties that are ever ready Q. Why has the DMK election? What will his to strengthen the coalitions, provided their demands are hired a political strate- role be hereafter? met. Among them, the parties that secured a vote share of gist for this election? A. At present, he is the one per cent or more, either on their own or by piggybacking How is it contributing to party’s youth wing sec- on the two big parties, since 2011, are still in negotiations for the growth and support retary. Like other DMK 2021. Both alliances will need every vote they can get and for the party? leaders, he has to work hence have to take their allies seriously. An analysis of the A. We are driven by a hard and prove him- vote share garnered by various parties since 1989 shows that desire to bring the best self on the ground. His taken together, the AIADMK and DMK have secured 60 per talent and expertise journey going forward cent or more in every election. When alliance partners are on-board to amplify will be decided by his accounted for, the Dravidian majors and their allies have the party’s vision, help performance and what us reach more people the people think of him. effectively and deliver In any case, it is for the the best to the people of party executive council Tamil Nadu. This applies to take a call. FEBRUARY 22, 2021 INDIA TODAY 27 COVER STORY TAMIL NADU

secured between 70 and 89 per cent of the vote share. Among those likely to be in the AIADMK alliance (besides the BJP) are the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) and the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), who have placed demands that will not be easy to fulfil. The PMK has a transferable, proven 5.5 per cent vote share while the BJP has about 2.9 per cent (2016 assembly poll). The AIADMK does not appear to be too keen to accom­ modate the DMDK, whose demands have always been far in excess of the popular support they have in terms of votes. The PMK, a party of the Vanniyars, a dominant OBC group in northern Tamil Nadu, is now demanding an exclusive quota among the Most Backward Classes. As for the DMDK, party treasurer Premalatha Vijayakanth, wife of its ailing founder, the actor Vijayakanth, is demanding 41 seats, the number the AIADMK had conceded in 2011. Back then, the DMDK had won 29 seats to emerge as the second­largest party, pushing the DMK to third position. But since then, the DMDK, fighting alone, has not won a single seat in any major election.

nd what does Sasikala do to this mix? Well, over 25 years, she had evolved as the power behind the Athrone as Jayalalithaa’s acolyte, and she seems determined to show that she is still a formidable force in Tamil Nadu politics. Sasikala is barred from holding any Some DMK leaders feel the elected office till 2027, has been expelled from the party party will get the votes and her legal troubles continue, so any move on the party or to regain her assets will have to factor in these challenges. of alliance partners Analysts speculate that she will mark time and wait for the election outcome. If the AIADMK loses, it will be her mo­ even if they quit over ment to discredit the current leadership who, incidentally, seat-sharing differences. were her protégés, and call for a change. Notwithstanding the continuing crackdown on the There are worries the allies section of the AIADMK cadre who went to welcome her, posters of Sasikala continue to appear on the walls of may not have the necessary Chennai, indicating a clear division in the party over the pull to win the allotted seats issue. Some argue that deputy chief minister O. Panneer­ selvam, who does not see eye to eye with EPS on several issues, may come under pressure to extend tacit support to her, especially if his supporters from among the Thevar gress, Vidu thalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), Marulamal­ community, to which Sasikala also belongs, are not accom­ archi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK), CPI, CPI(M) modated with party tickets. Her breakaway AMMK is still and several smaller parties—to ensure a dependable transfer to announce its plans for the election. of votes. As individual parties, their vote share, except for That said, as of now, Sasikala does not seem to have the major ally Congress, is negligible, especially when compared inclination or the wherewithal to stop the AIADMK leaders to their demand for seats. Indeed, some DMK leaders feel from going ahead with their plans for the election. Even if they would get the votes of the alliance parties even if the she tries to intervene by mobilising her supporters lurking cohorts were to quit over seat­sharing squabbles. There are at various levels within the party organisation (the much apprehensions about losing the seats given to allies who hyped ‘Mannargudi mafia’), it would only boomerang on either do not have winnable candidates or a self­supporting her as the AIADMK could lose its voters and the election. voter base. The DMK leaders cite the 2016 and 2019 poll Meanwhile, what applies for the AIADMK holds good results to prove their point. for the DMK too. It will rely on trusted old allies—the Con­ Which is exactly the source of friction with the Congress,

28 INDIA TODAY FEBRUARY 22, 2021 JAISON G

which is worried about being allotted fewer constituen­ cies than the 40 it got in 2016 (the party won just eight seats with a 6.4 per cent vote share). The seat­sharing talks have also been sullied by the DMK making claims on neighbouring Puducherry, where a Congress gov­ ernment is in power. The DMK feels they should be heading the alliance there too, when the state goes to polls in the summer.

THE ONE PER CENT MATRIX There are several ‘one per cent parties’ (who have no more than a one per cent vote share) who matter as they represent different caste groups. These parties thrive, even though the Dravidian ideology underlines a caste­ less society. “Caste is definitely a factor and a decisive People one in pockets. But it’s only the PMK in the north that has repeatedly proved that it has over five per cent vote Power Kamal Haasan share since its founding in 1991,” points out Moorthy. during an MNM The Vellalar Gounders dominate politics in the roadshow western region and the Thevars, a.k.a. Mukkulathores, in Madurai; in the south of the state. Both are traditional AIADMK Rahul Gandhi (below) helps strongholds, but occasionally, as in the 1996 election a girl on to the and even later, the two regions have voted out the party roof of his car on charges of corruption. They did not vote for the at a Congress AIADMK alliance in the 2019 general election. Only rally in Karur the western region stayed with the AIADMK in 2016 while the DMK and its partners shared the honours in the north and south of the state. Then, there are the Nadars in the southernmost part of the state, a region the community dominates, and they are divided between the Congress and the BJP. Overall, it depends on individual constituencies and the caste of contestants, especially from the DMK and the AIADMK. There are also instances where castes join hands to run down the dominant one. Here, party identity at times comes to the rescue of the contestant. Consequently, seldom have non­Dravidian fronts managed to get a respectable vote share in the past 50 years (the highest was the Congress with 19.8 per cent in 1989). This is also why a party like the actor­turned­ politician Kamal Haasan’s Makkal Needhi Maiam (MNM) will be unable to make a significant dent. And with Rajinikanth reluctant to try on the politician’s garb (after raising everyone’s hopes for much of last year), what seems probable is that film stars may fight shy of launching political ventures in the future. As for the 2021 outcome, Prof. Ramu Manivannan, head, de­ partment of politics and public administration, Mad­ ras University, says, “Prospects for the DMK are 50 plus one (per cent). The thing to watch will be how best the AIADMK and its BJP­PMK­DMDK alliance counters this to make it a close contest.” Even minus the star cast, it seems there is a promise of excitement. n ANI

FEBRUARY 22, 2021 INDIA TODAY 29

ENVIRONMENT | UTTARAKHAND GLACIER TRAGEDY

AAddevastatingt ti flashfl h floodfldini thethHHimalayani l statet t highlights the urgent need to protect the region’s fragile environment and review unbridled development activity

By Anilesh S. Mahajan

MISSION RESCUE ITBP troopers look for survivors inside a tunnel at a hydropower plant in the aftermath of the flash floods in Chamoli, Uttarakhand, on February 7 he disaster that unfolded on February 7 in the higher reaches of Uttarakhand after a portion of a ‘hanging glacier’ on the slopes of Nanda Devi broke off and triggered flash floods strikes yet another environmental alarm bell for India’s Himalayan regions. The glacial T collapse, near Raini village above Joshi- math in the state’s Chamoli district, sent a wall of water and debris down the Dhauliganga and Rishiganga tributaries of the Alaknanda river, causing significant destruction along the route, including dam- age to major hydropower projects. At least 32 people are dead and over 170 are reported missing. The devastation evoked memories of the June 2013 flash floods in the state, caused by a cloudburst near the Kedarnath shrine, which left nearly 700 dead. By afternoon, though, such fears receded as the gates of a downstream dam in Srinagar, in Pauri Garhwal, were opened while the gates of the Tehri Dam were shut to allow passage of the surging waters of the Alaknanda into the Ganga at the confluence in Devprayag. The floods wrecked NTPC’s Tapovan Vishnugad 520 MW hydel project and wiped out the under-construc- tion Rishiganga mini-hydel project, roads, bridges as well as homes. A majority of those missing are feared stuck in tunnels at these two power projects. Reports also suggest major damage to THDC India’s 444 MW Pipalkoti and the Jaypee Group’s 400 MW Vishnu- prayag hydropower projects. Teams of the National Disaster Response Force (NDRF), army, air force and state agencies are engaged in rescue and evacuation.

WHAT CAUSED IT? There is no clarity yet on what caused the disaster. Both the Centre and the Uttarakhand government have put experts on the job. They include scientists from the Geological Survey of India. H.C. Nainwal, a noted glaciologist at the Hemvati Nandan Bahuguna Garh- wal University in Srinagar, says there is no identified glacial lake in the affected region. “We need to study where the water came from,” he says. According to Mohd Farooq Azam, assistant profes- sor with the glaciology and hydrology department of IIT-Indore, “Glacial bursts are very rare. Satellite and Google Earth images do not show any glacial lake, but there is possibility of water pockets—lakes inside gla- ciers—in the region. A water pocket may have erupted, leading to this event. But we need further analysis of weather and other data to arrive at a conclusion.” The meteorological department had reported sun- ny weather for February 6-7 around the disaster site. Though avalanches are common in the Himalayas,

AP GLACIER TRAGEDY DEVASTATION IN A FLASH On the morning of February 7, a part of a ‘hanging glacier’ on the slopes of Nanda Devi in Uttarakhand’s Chamoli district broke off, triggering flash floods in tributaries of the Alaknanda river and causing widespread damage

Graphic by NILANJAN DAS

Alaknanda

FLOOD CONTTROL The gates of thee Srinagar Dam were openednedtoallowto allow the flood waters to recede, and the gates of the Tehri Dam on Bhagirathi river were shut to allow passage CONTENTIOUS of the water from the PROJECTS Alaknanda into the Ganga

RED FACING FLAGGED THE AXE Despite the National Objections were Green Tribunal’s raised on various 1 Raini village objections, the Centre platforms, including 2 Vishnuprayag and Uttarakhand the Supreme Court, government are pushing over the 10-metre for completion of the width of the highway, 3 SrinagarSrina 816 km Char Dham which would require 5 Rishikesh Highway more trees to be cut

POWER CONCRETE HUNGRY CALAMITY Some 200 Construction 6 Haridwar hydropower projects material, such as of various sizes are concrete, is known 4 Devprayag in different stages to generate heat and of development in raise temperatures, Uttarakhand affecting glaciers HIGH WATER WHITE HOT The retreat of glaciers A report by the Nepal- temperature rise is restricted across the Himalayas based International Centre under 1.5° C, a rise of at least frequently results in the for Integrated Mountain 1.8° C is expected in the formation of proglacial Development (ICIMOD) warns HKH region due to elevation lakes that are often bound of rising temperatures in the dependent warming only by sediments and Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) boulders. A breach can region. Even if the global ‘Hanging send large amounts of glacier’ water down to nearby NANDA DEVI rivers and streams. The PEAK rising water picks up sediments, rocks and other debris along the way,

turning more ferocious

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Rishiganga meets Dhauliganga near Raini village. Both tributaries were flooded

The Rishiganga hydropower project near Raini village was completely destroyed 32 DEAD*

The NTPC’s 520 MW hydel project on the Dhauliganga near Tapovan was wrecked. More than a hundred workers 170 Six graziers A BRO (Border were engaged in building a 900-metre- MISSING* and their herds Roads long tunnel here. Some 20 of them were swept Organisation) were rescued through a freshly-dug Of the dead, the away by the bridge on the 150-metre tunnel before the rising bodies of at least 15 flash flood. Joshimath-Malari water level halted the evacuation were recovered from A few village highway and two Chamoli and four from Two Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) homes also ‘jhula’ bridges, Rudrapryag. Many teams, totalling about 200 personnel, went under connecting among the rescued were moved to the affected areas from water villages on either were construction Joshimath. Teams from the National side of the flooded workers at the Disaster Response Force (NDRF), air hydropower projects rivers, were force, army and Uttarakhand agencies devastated by the washed away joined the rescue mission flash floods

Cross section view not to scale; artist impression *As on February 10, 7 pm ENVIRONMENT | UTTARAKHAND GLACIER TRAGEDY such an occurrence alone is unlikely to have caused the in the original plan. Mallika Bhanot, who works with the sudden and alarming rise in water levels in Alaknanda’s Uttarkashi-based citizens’ forum Ganga Ahvaan and moni- tributaries. Tweets by Dan Shugar, associate professor with tors the Bhagirathi eco-sensitive zone, says the Char Dham the department of geosciences at Canada’s University of Cal- Highway construction is focusing on maximising slope- gary—featuring satellite images captured before and after cutting in the shortest possible time. “Tall slopes—often the catastrophe—suggest a portion of the glacier may have inclined more than 45 degrees and as high as 60-70 me- fallen after it was struck by a massive rockslide. tres—have been cut without considering the vulnerability of the local geological features. It’s a high-risk approach that THE COST OF DEVELOPMENT has triggered several major landslides.” While it’s too early to draw conclusions, some experts are In recent years, the hill states have been making major blaming the tragedy on global warming and the continuing efforts to exploit their water resources for power genera- ecological degradation of Uttarakhand. The incident has tion. Some 200 large, medium and small hydro projects put the spotlight back on unrestrained development work are in various phases of development in Uttarakhand. Such in the upper regions of the state, including the environs of projects consume vast quantities of concrete, a material Nanda Devi, Badrinath and Kedarnath. The topography of known to generate heat, raising temperatures and destabi- these areas makes rivers all the more prone to flash floods, lising snowfields and glaciers in the vicinity. Manju Menon, whether triggered by construction activity or climate change. senior fellow at the Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi, Studies, including one by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel says engineering projects executed in the upper regions of on Climate Change (IPCC), have warned that the tempera- Uttarakhand have made the mountains more fragile. “A ture profile of ice in these regions is rising. It is -2 ˚C now, as better understanding of the ecology will not only help save against a temperature range of -20 ˚C to -6 ˚C at one time, the mountains but also guide investors on the best technol- making the ice highly susceptible to melting. ogy to be used for their projects,” she says. Clearly, no lessons seem to have been learnt from the In a 2016 affidavit in the Supreme Court, the then 2013 floods in Uttarakhand, which claimed hundreds of Union ministry of water resources, river development and lives and destroyed an esti- Ganga rejuvenation said that mated 2,000 homes, 1,300 several mountainous areas, roads and 150 bridges. The including the higher reaches following year, the Uttara- of Uttarakhand, should be khand government had de- left untouched by hydropower veloped an action plan on projects. But the environment climate change with inputs and power ministries took a from UNDP, but today there contrarian view. Uttarakhand appears to be little evidence of cites its own compulsions. The action on the ground. state generates about 3.8 GW Uttarakhand is an eco- of electricity and needs to buy logically fragile state, with additional power from the na- 71 per cent of its area under tional grid. The state govern- forests. The past decade has TRAIL OF DESTRUCTION ment aims to more than double The flash flood in the Dhauliganga tributary seen successive governments its power generation capacity in the state struggle to balance over the next few years. ecological realities with development requirements—the In June 2018, the Uttarakhand High Court had stalled result being the rampant damming of rivers to generate all hydropower projects in the state over improper disposal hydropower, mushrooming of settlements on river banks, of debris along the rivers. The Supreme Court, in August and the drilling and tunneling of mountains to expand the 2020, permitted the projects to proceed, provided the de- road network. bris was disposed of without ruining the rivers. Both the Union and Uttarakhand government, for in- While the precise mechanism that triggered the latest stance, are aggressively pushing for completion of the 816 calamity remains unknown for the moment, we do know km Char Dham Highway, connecting the pilgrimage centres that the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region has over 8,000 of Kedarnath, Badrinath, Yamunotri and Gangotri. The glacial lakes, of which 200 are classified dangerous. Ut- state authorities and NHAI (National Highways Author- tarakhand alone has some 1,000 glacial lakes. The glacial ity of India) are at loggerheads with the National Green collapse in Chamoli will not be the last such tragedy unless Tribunal (NGT) for clearances. The NGT wants the width India’s hill states take credible action to sync their develop- of the under-construction road restricted to 5.5 metres ment models with the environment, begin round-the-clock (it’s 10 metres now) to minimise the damage caused to the assessment of the Himalayas and their delicate ecology, forests and mountains. But with 537 km of road length and deploy more scientific methods to map the effects of already completed, there is only a dim chance of any change climate change. n

36 INDIA TODAY FEBRUARY 22, 2021

THE BIG STORY FARMERS’ PROTEST THE JAT ENGINE Rakesh Tikait’s impassioned appeal has resuscitated the farmers’ movement and given the Jats a leader to rally around, making the government’s task that much more difficult

BY ASHISH MISRA AND ANILESH S. MAHAJAN

RALLYING CRY BKU national spokesperson Rakesh Tikait on stage at the Ghazipur border on January 30

f the events of this year’s Republic Day— Before long, Rashtriya Lok Dal when lumpen youth hijacked what had (RLD) president Chaudhary Ajit Singh, hitherto been a determined yet peaceful son of the legendary Chaudhary Charan farmers’ protest and led a siege of the Singh, buried his long-standing differ- iconic Red Fort—threatened to derail ences with the sons of Mahendra Singh the movement, Rakesh Tikait’s tears on Tikait, the renowned farmer leader of UP. Beating Retreat Day (January 28)—when The Tikait brothers, the elder Naresh, police tried to force-clear protesters from president of the Bharatiya Kisan Union Ghazipur—put it right back on track. His (BKU), and Rakesh, its national spokes- I emotional outburst not only re-energised person, were widely believed to have the movement, it also led to something been behind Singh’s defeat from Muzaf- more momentous—bringing the Jats of farnagar in the 2019 Lok Sabha election. Uttar Pradesh and Haryana together The rivalry ran deep till very recently—for in solidarity with the Punjab farmer, instance, instead of attending the BKU undermining the central government’s dharna on the Ghazipur border, Ajit insinuations that the movement was Singh’s son and RLD general secretary confined to Punjab, that it was being Jayant Chaudhary attended the farmers’ used by Khalis tani forces to further their dharna in Baraut in Baghpat district. own radical agenda and was the work of Tikait’s passionate appeal on January 28 ‘andolanjeevis’, professional protesters changed all that, with Chaudhary tweet- who live off agitations. ing in support the same night. ANI

In neighbouring Haryana, too, LOSING THE PLOT IN UP er in western UP. After 2013, the Jat after dissociating themselves from the It is in UP that the consolidation of the and Muslim voters found themselves movement in the wake of the Republic Jat vote spells the maximum trouble on opposite sides. The Jats left the RLD Day hooliganism, the khaps in the state for the BJP, given that the state goes to and went with the BJP. As a result, once again backed the agitation. The polls a year from now. According to the the BJP became stronger with the mahapanchayat convened by the Sarva 1931 caste census, 99 per cent of the Jat support of the Jat vote in western UP Jatiya Kandela Khap on February 4 population in the state is concentrated while RLD became weaker.” The BJP had thousands turning up in solidarity. in the 26 districts of the Agra, Aligarh, now controls 70 per cent of the seats Attending it were the newly-anointed Saharanpur, Moradabad, Meerut and in western UP. It has 11 Jat MLAs in Jat leader Rakesh Tikait, BKU (Rajew- Bareilly divisions. Together, these six the UP assembly, of which four—Lak- al) chief Balbir Singh Rajewal and Aam divisions account for 136 of UP’s 403 shmi Narayan Choudhary, Bhupendra Aadmi Party leader Gurnam Singh assembly seats and 27 of its 80 Lok Chaudhary, Baldev Singh Aulakh and Chanduni, all three of whom have Sabha seats. RLD’s Ajit Singh had been Uday Bhan Singh—are ministers in worked closely as part of the Sanyukt a prominent Jat leader in western UP the Yogi Adityanath government. The Kisan Morcha, the umbrella organisa- till the Muzaffarnagar riots of 2013 left party also has three Jat MPs—Satyapal tion of all farmers’ unions protesting the region deeply polarised and saw Jat Singh in Baghpat, Sanjiv Baliyan in the contentious farm laws. For the BJP, loyalties shift to the BJP. “Before the Muzaffarnagar and Rajkumar Chahar the silence of Jannayak Janata Party Muzaffarnagar riots,” says R.K. Singh, in Fatehpur Sikri. Mohit Beniwal, the (JJP) leader and Haryana deputy chief a former professor in the political sci- regional president of western UP in the minister Dushyant Singh Chautala can ence department of Meerut University, BJP party organisation, is also a Jat. only have sounded ominous. “Jats and Muslims used to vote togeth- Over the past few years, the state’s

FEBRUARY 22, 2021 INDIA TODAY 39 Saharanpur THE BIG STORY division Meerut Moradabad division FARMERS’ PROTEST division Bareilly Counting division Aligarh division sugar economy has also played a role in social and political realignments. the Jat The Muslims here usually work as Agra division farm labour on cane plantations. The schisms of 2013 not only upset this Vote easily available source of farm labour, unremunerative prices for his produce UTTAR PRADESH have left the cane farmer increasingly restive. So when the farmers’ move- ment regained momentum under % the leadership of Rakesh Tikait, the 99 55136 Muslims found themselves making of the Jat of the state’s of the 136 Jat- common cause with their Jat brethren population is 403 assembly dominated assembly in the state. They were present in concentrated in seats and 27 of seats have more large numbers at the Muzaffarnagar the 26 districts of 80 LS seats fall than 30 per cent and Shamli mahapanchayats held in the Agra, Aligarh, in these six Muslim population. the first week of February. Saharanpur, divisions. The A Jat-Muslim Moradabad, BJP holds more consolidation in his cannot be good Meerut and than 70 per these seats would news for the BJP. In Bareilly divisions, cent of these account for at least 55 of the 136 per the 1931 seats 40 per cent of assembly seats caste census the vote T where the Jat vote matters, Muslims constitute more than 30 per cent of the population. If the Jat-Muslim vote were to combine, it would form 40 per cent of the total vote. For perspective, that Ajit Singh’s waning influence left pressure on JJP leader and deputy CM soon after the Muzaffarnagar riots in in Jat politics. If Singh’s RLD won Dushyant and his grand-uncle Ranjit 2013, not a single Muslim MP was 14 seats in the 2002 assembly poll in Chautala, an Independent MLA and elected in the 2014 parliamentary alliance with the BJP, 10 on its own in cabinet minister, from the Chautala election. However, Jat-Muslim unity 2007, nine in 2012 in alliance with the village panchayat to either find a solu- was in evidence in the 2019 Lok Congress, it won just one seat in 2017. tion or exit the government. Sabha poll, when UP sent six Muslim It could not even open its account in the Dushyant did meet Prime Minister MPs to Parliament, five from western 2019 Lok Sabha poll, with both father Narendra Modi and home minister UP. In fact, BSP candidates Danish and son losing their respective seats. Amit Shah on January 13. They assured Ali and Haji Fazlurrahman, who The Jats themselves have now him that the MSP would stay. However, fought from the Amroha and rallied around Tikait. All khaps of the grand renewal of Jat support for the Saharanpur constituencies, respec- western UP came together under farmers’ agitation has mounted fresh tively, won with 51 per cent of the vote. the aegis of a Sarvkhap and held a trouble for Dushyant. This could not have been possible mahapanchayat in Baraut in Baghpat His own MLAs have, for the mo- without a combined Jat-Muslim vote. district on January 31. Three other ment, decided to hold on, despite the Faheem Usmani, who runs a school in mahapanchayats in Mathura, Muzaff- outreach by Bhupinder Singh Hooda Deoband in western UP, says, “With arnagar and Shamli districts saw an and the Congress and pressure from the Jat and Muslim voters coming equal groundswell of support. local khaps. Among them is Amarjeet together on one platform—as was Dhanda, the JJP MLA from Julana, evident in the large crowds that HULLABALLOO IN HARYANA according to whom some khaps were gathered in the panchayat of the Things look equally shaky for the BJP planning to boycott their party on Indian Farmers’ Union—its impact in Haryana. The survival of the BJP Hooda and Congress’s insistence. But, will be seen in 2022.” government in the state depends on he adds, “It doesn’t reflect the collec- Meanwhile, the rise of Rakesh the support of 10 JJP MLAs and six tive will of the Jats. I haven’t faced any Tikait has filled the leadership vacuum Independents. And there is increasing hostility in my constituency.” However,

40 INDIA TODAY FEBRUARY 22, 2021 ANI SEA OF PROTEST RLD leader Jayant Chaudhary addresses a mahapanchayat in Shamli, UP

to village and convince people about the new farm laws. With panchayat polls due in April, the panchayati raj minister in the Yogi government, Bhupendra Chaudhary, who happens to be a prominent Jat leader, is expected to start campaigning from February 16. He hopes to visit every district in the region, meet the BJP office-bearers and HARYANA JAT-DOMINATED SEATS PARTY-WISE instruct them on how to sell the govern- IN 90-MEMBER JAT MLAS ment’s new farm laws. HARYANA ASSEMBLY Simultaneously, the party has BJP Congress named district unit presidents and More More entrusted them with the task of pub- than 50% than 30% 27 5 10 licising the Yogi government’s policies Percentage of among farmers. BJP state president voters from Swatantra Dev Singh has reviewed Jat community 10 25 seats seats the Meerut and Saharanpur divisions, where Dalit leader Chandrashekhar Azad’s Azad Samaj Party is also plan- ning to mount a village-to-village JJP Independents campaign against the farm laws. Chandramohan, the state-level BJP 5 5 spokesman and Muzaffarnagar district

Graphic by TANMOY CHAKRABORTY in-charge, betrays the tone the BJP’s campaign will take when he says, “The farmers’ movement is a conspiracy of the opposition parties against the with one cabinet slot vacant in the JJP uneasy relationship with Khattar since Centre and the UP government. The quota, his MLAs are exerting pressure 2016, when they staged protests to work we have done in farmers’ interests on Dushyant to announce his pick. drive their demand for backward caste is unprecedented, and the farmers Jats in Haryana rally around two reservation. It doesn’t help that Khat- understand it. The BJP government is poles: the Deswali Jats led by former tar is a non-Jat chief minister and has fully committed to farmers’ welfare.” CM Bhupinder Hooda, and the Bagri made no effort to appease the commu- In Haryana, which has some years Jats, who owe their allegiance to the nity. Of the 25 Jat MLAs in the current to go before it elects a new assembly, Chautalas. To build pressure on Dushy- assembly, only five are from the BJP, Khattar is banking on reverse polarisa- ant and regain the support base that which banks more on the JJP’s accep- tion of the Dalit and OBC communities had shifted from the INLD (Indian tance among young Jat voters and the to compensate for the loss of the Jat National Lok Dal), Abhay Chautala limited appeal of its state unit chief, vote. Both the Jats, and the Dalits in resigned as Fatehabad MLA. Om Prakash Dhankar. northern Haryana, had drifted towards What does this mean for the BJP? the Congress in the 2019 assembly poll. Jats constitute 27 per cent of the state’s THE SAFFRON COUNTER The BJP is now on an overdrive to win electorate. They voted overwhelm- How does the BJP plan to overcome the Dalits back. Their strategy will be ingly in the party’s favour in the 2019 this consolidation of the Jat vote, given put to test soon enough, in the forth- general election, helping it win all 10 that the Centre seems dead against a coming Dalit-dominated Kalka bypoll. seats. However, in the assembly elec- repeal of the farm laws as demanded With both the farmers and the tion soon after, its tally was reduced to by the agitating farmers? The prime Centre digging in their heels, it will 40 seats in the 90-member assembly. minister reiterated that MSP was here be interesting to see who blinks first. This was perhaps because voting in to stay, and quipped that a new kind of Meanwhile, as the farmers’ protests the general election was on the plank FDI—foreign destructive ideology—was gather increasing global attention, the of nationalism, while the state elec- holding the nation’s development to government may find its international tion verdict was based on Khattar’s ransom. In UP, the party has instructed reputation suffering along with its performance. And the Jats have had an all its MPs and MLAs to go from village electoral prospects. n

FEBRUARY 22, 2021 INDIA TODAY 41

PRASANTH VEMBAYAM GIFTS GALORE CM Pinarayi Vijayan at the house-warming ceremony of a Life Mission awardee in Thiruvananthapuram BATTLE FOR KERALA Pinarayi in Poll Position The local body election results have injected new life into the Left Front election campaign. Can the CPI(M) chief minister ride them to victory?

By Jeemon Jacob adopt new technologies to improve state since its term began. It started delivery of government services and with the Nipah virus outbreak, then got experts onboard as advisors (in- the consecutive floods in 2018 and cluding Gita Gopinath, chief econo- 2019 and, finally, Covid-19. mist of the International Monetary The CM’s hands-on approach Fund). His bigg est visible successes during the calamities has to an extent were the four ‘missions’—‘Haritha endeared him to the people of Kerala. F (green) Keralam’ to make the state It’s hard to believe that just a decade eco-friendly and sustainable, the Life ago, in the battle for top honours Mission to provide homes for the poor, in the state CPI(M), the media was ‘Aardram’ to develop infrastructure painting Pinarayi as the arrogant, in government hospitals and the corrupt and reactionary leader while For almost four decades now, Kerala Education Mission to set up high-tech projecting veteran Communist leader has voted the Left Democratic Front classrooms in state-run schools. V.S. Achuthanandan as the leader (LDF) and United Democratic Front Under the garb of the ‘Nava (New) of the masses. But Pinarayi has now (UDF) to power alternately. The Kerala’ initiatives, he also brought emerged as Kerala’s most credible 2021 assembly election, though, his unruly party workers to heel, chief minister in a long time with a could spring a surprise. The ruling banning the ‘nokkukooli’ practice in major fan following on social media. LDF’s surprise performance in the the markets where head-load workers “During the post-flood peri- local body election in December (just demanded pay even for not doing the ods, the CM’s Disaster Relief Fund as everyone thought it was down and job and making attendance compul- received Rs 4,912 crore in dona- out after the gold smuggling scan- sory in government offices. tions; Rs 523 crore during Covid-19. dal and Enforcement Directorate “We managed to create a novel But more than these donations, it’s investigations) suggests a change in platform to integrate three major sec- Pinarayi’s appeal for land to build the script for the assembly election tors—waste management, agriculture homes for the homeless that proves in May. The worry lines are gone and conservation of water resources his standing among the people. and Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan under the Haritha mission. The We got around 100 acres of land as is back to his imperious self. He is best part was developing the many donations from the public,” points keen that the LDF, led by his CPI(M), great models in managing waste out a senior IAS officer. Of course, consolidate the 40.2 per cent vote with people’s participation,” says Dr this was all before the gold smuggling share it got in the local body polls T.N. Seema, a former CPI(M) Rajya racket in 2020 implicated some of his (the Congress steered UDF managed Sabha MP and vice-chairperson of the trusted officials in the CM’s office. 37.9 per cent while the BJP-led NDA Haritha Keralam Mission. got 19 per cent of the vote). But if there’s anything that will Second-term strategy The true Marxist that he is, give Pinarayi’s government a chance There’s no denying that the local body Pinarayi, now 75, has never believed at a second term, it is the goodwill poll results have lifted a faltering LDF in fate. Nothing’s come easy for generated by its performance during campaign going into the ass embly him, which may be why when he the multiple crises that have hit the election. After the results, the CM was finally chosen to head the LDF has had elaborate discussions with governm ent in 2016, he already had opinion-makers in the districts to a blueprint in mind for his tenure. chart out the election manifesto, the It helped that, unlike with earlier The CM’s hands-on government’s annual progress card Left Front regimes, there was little is being widely circulated and, most interference from AKG Centre, the approach during importantly, the party cadre have a state party headquarters. “Pinarayi the calamities spring in their step again. The CPI(M) has had full control over the decisions leadership, meanwhile, is trying to of his government. No chief minister end eared him consolidate the community votebanks of Kerala has had such privileges. to the people, and topmost on the agenda is getting He has used the opportunity to leave which explains back the upper-caste Hindu Nair his imprint on the government while voters (who abandoned the party after also emerging as a sole power centre,” the overwhelming protests against the entry of women in says a former state chief secretary, on response to his call Sabarimala) and winning more of the condition of anonymity. for donations minority community votes. Pinarayi has also worked to widen A big boost has been the Kerala the LDF’s mass base from day one, Congress-Mani or KC-M faction

FEBRUARY 22, 2021 INDIA TODAY 45 BATTLE FOR KERALA

joining the LDF. It improves the pension for 5.5 million poor people game, unleashing a “communal virus front’s chances considerably in central when they went to the polling booths. that could be more dangerous than Kerala; the 2.5 per cent vote swing The Congress is now pinning its Covid in the coming days”. He says will be a major drain on the UDF’s hopes on reviving the Sabarimala the “Congress is playing a loser’s final secure base. But more than the vote issue and is drafting a new legisla- in Kerala. They are spreading multi- drain, Pinarayi has found a new tion banning menstruating women viruses into a democratic system invok- ambassador, KC-M leader Jose K. from entering the hill shrine with a ing caste and religion to gain space”. Mani, to connect to the Syro-Malabar two-year jail term for violators. The Catholic community in the region. party says it will implement the new A BJP ‘super winner’? He is also trying to link with Muslim rule if it wins the election. The move Like the Congress, the BJP, too, is community leaders to counter the In- looks like a futile exercise aimed solely perplexed by their current political dian Union Muslim League (IUML)’s at minimising the BJP’s hold over the position in the state. The issues they dominance in Malabar in the north. Sabarimala issue and winning over the have held up for long—Sabarimala Youth and women are the other Nair votes, especially since the matter and the gold smuggling scandal—have focus groups. Pinarayi has already little oxygen left, and they need new had a series of personal interacti ons weapons to fight Pinarayi. There’s also with youth to assess their problems a realisation that banking on the CM’s and aspirations. The intention is detractors like former vigilance direc- to get a 45 per cent-plus vote share tor Jacob Thomas to do the job may from these two groups and undercut not get them votes. But since 2016, the the caste/ minority card using the BJP-led NDA has gained political mo- development agenda. Plans are also mentum in Kerala and improved its afoot to field the best possible can- vote share. In the 2016 assembly poll, didates against prominent Congress “The Congress is the NDA got a 15 per cent vote share leaders (and his fiercest critics) such playing a loser’s and by the time of the local body polls as Ramesh Chennithala, Mullappally final in Kerala... in 2020 had improved it to 19 per Ramachandran, Oommen Chandy cent. According to Rajendran, if the and V.D. Satheeshan. unleashing a BJP improves its vote share by another Veteran journalist and former communal virus 3 percentage points, the Congress will Kerala Press Academy chairman N.P. be routed in the state. Rajendran argues that the “biggest that could become And that seems to be the cur- advantage for the CPI(M) and the CM more dangerous rent gameplan of the BJP. The party’s is that they have to a large extent won than Covid in campaign manager-in-chief and Union the confidence of the Muslims, who home minister Amit Shah wants make up 27 per cent of the population. coming days” the party to focus on victories in 25 The community feels secure under A. VIJAYARAGHAVAN constituencies (in the 140-seat house). LDF rule and their shift from the CPI(M) state secretary and The BJP state leadership will be happy Congress to the CPI(M) may play a LDF convenor if they win seven, including Nemom, decisive role in the assembly election”. the first seat it won in Kerala (in 2016). Seven constituencies and a 23 per The Congress gameplan is under the consideration of a consti- cent vote share in the coming election The Congress seems to be in a flux tutional bench of the Supreme Court. will make the BJP the “super winner” after the poll debacle in December. And this is a big fear now. “Analysing in Kerala. BJP sources say they don’t Party leaders had banked on the gold the voting pattern, trends indicate that mind Pinarayi winning another term; smuggling scandal and the corrup- if the BJP gains in Kerala, it will be at their agenda is to decimate the Con- tion alleg ations in the Life Mission the Congress’s expense. The UDF will gress after playing its B-team against to carry them through, but the vocal need a miracle to return to power, and Pinarayi for the last four years and nine campa igns seem to have had little stunts like reviving the Sabarimala months. A Congress rout will also offer impact and, as one media critic put it, sentiments alone will not help it win,” the BJP a chance to become the main it’s as if the voters only remembered Rajendran points out. opposition and have its leaders flock to the family kits during the pandemic, LDF convenor and CPI(M) state their side. The strategy has worked in the 250,000 houses delivered and secretary A. Vijayaraghavan warns that other states, but may falter in Kerala the Rs 1,600 social security monthly the Congress is playing a dangerous with its caste and community mix. n

46 INDIA TODAY FEBRUARY 22, 2021 FIRING RANGE Indian Army troopers in Akhnoor near the Line of Control (LoC)

SPECIAL REPORT DEFENCE THE YASIR IQBAL FIREARMS India’s armed forces suffer due to crippling dependence on whimsical global TRAP weapons manufacturers. By SANDEEP UNNITHAN Behind the crisis is the country’s flawed firearms production-acquisition policy and low R&D SPECIAL REPORT DEFENCE

June 2020, as India’s special forces were planning medium machine gun and a self-loading rifle—have been a countermove against China’s heavy military mo- serially produced in India’s state-owned ordnance factories bilisation in Ladakh, one of their units was facing a for over four decades. FNH, though, has not participated critical weapons shortage. Belgian small arms manu- in any of the Indian armed forces’ recent small arms buys. facturer FN Herstal (FNH) walked out of a contract (The firm took part in a 2016 bid to supply a new assault to supply some 1,500 small arms to the Special Fron- rifle to the Pakistan Army.) Despite these likely hurdles, the tier Force (SFF), a covert paramilitary unit under Indian Army’s Para Special Forces have taken a circuitous the cabinet secretariat. The estimated Rs 70 crore route to acquire FNH weapons—a ‘foreign military sale’ contract for P90 carbines and SCAR assault rifles from the US government. had been under negotiations for three years before Another leading arms-maker, the German firm Heckler being signed in 2019 for delivery within a year. & Koch, whose MP5 submachine guns were used by the NSG (National Security Guard) and MARCOS (Marine Com- In late August, the SFF were deployed against the mandos) during the 26/11 attacks in Mumbai, steers clear of PLA (People’s Liberation Army) in a massive ‘area de- the Indian market. The manufacturer says German export nial operation’ on the southern banks of the Pangong laws do not allow supply of weapons to India because of the Lake, without the imported weapons they were sup- ‘situation in Jammu and Kashmir’. “In Germany, the federal posed to get. An FNH spokesperson declined com- government must approve the export of small arms. Against ment on the failed contract, citing confidentiality. the background of the situation in the Kashmir region, the The incident illustrates the pitfalls of India’s crippling de- German government has repeatedly indicated to our com- pendence on imported small arms in the face of tensions with pany that arms deliveries to the Indian MoD (ministry of both its adversaries, China and Pakistan. What complicates defence) would not be approved,” an H&K spokesperson said. matters is that foreign arms firms are likely to pull the plug on contracts, even in the midst of a national security crisis in the THE INDIGENOUS ROAD importing country, due to various factors, ranging from their India has the world’s second-largest army—over 1.2 million- own countries refusing export clearances to human rights strong—and nearly one million paramilitary forces. The issues in the country of sale. government’s inability to create a modern indigenous small The reasons for FNH’s withdrawal are not known but need arms industry has created an ironical situation—a coun- to be seen in the light of a similar instance last August, when it try that can send an indig- suspended small arms deliveries to Saudi Arabia, its biggest cli- enous spacecraft to Mars ent. Saudi Arabia, according to an Al Jazeera report, ‘accounted Dependency on is one of the world’s largest for 225 million euros (about Rs 1,988 crore) in a 950 million foreign arms can importers of small arms, euro (about Rs 8,396 crore) industry in 2018’. The suspension, hit operational importing hundreds of the report stated, was prompted by a complaint from a human readiness, like thousands of assault rifles, rights group over the Saudi military intervention in Yemen. the Indian Army pistols and submachine The reputation of an arms firm can override the foreign guns each year. The Indian policy of its country of origin. FNH, for instance, is no Bel- faced at the time Army alone is slated to im- gian waffle-maker. One of the world’s top five small arms- of the Balakot port rifles, carbines and makers, its weapons are used by the US Special Operations operation in 2019 light machine guns (LMGs) Command. Three of its well-regarded products—a pistol, a worth over Rs 3,500 crore

48 INDIA TODAY FEBRUARY 22, 2021 LIMITED IMPORTS, UNLIMITED LIABILITIES Indian special forces’ imports from European gun-maker FN Herstal have run into rough weather. The army’s Para Special Forces are buying from the same manufacturer but routing it through the United States

INDIAN ARMY PARA SPECIAL SPECIAL FORCES FRONTIER FORCE 100100 P90 Personal Defence 1,400 Weapons FN Scar L 5.56x45 assault rifles

100 1,050 FN SCAR FN Scar H 7.62x51 H&L rifles assault rifles

100 Barrett M107 A1 heavy sniping rifles

715 Mk 48 ‘Maximi’ General Purpose CONTRACT: Rs 500 crore CONTRACT: Rs 70 crore (approx.) Machine Guns STATUS: Under negotiation with the US STATUS: Cancelled. FN Herstal indicated via the ‘Foreign Military Sale’ route inability to supply weapons in June 2020 Graphic by TANMOY CHAKRABORTY

to modernise its infantry and special forces. multiple weapons firing them. Global militaries are acutely The army knows how foreign dependency can affect the conscious of the problems of fielding multiple weapon types operational readiness of its frontline units. Around the time of with different spares and ammunition. For instance, the US tensions with Pakistan following the 2019 Balakot airstrikes, military, which has seen the most conflict since the end of the army urgently needed spares and replacements for its anti- World War II, has changed its rifle calibre and standard materiel rifles. These weapons, meant to destroy light armoured issue rifle just twice in the past 75 years. The in-service vehicles and bunkers, had been purchased from the South Afri- M16 is a modified variant of a rifle first introduced in 1965. can arms firm Denel following the 1999 Kargil War. The supply The solution to whimsical foreign suppliers could be of spares dried up after Denel was blacklisted by the MoD in what an exasperated defence secretary once suggested 2005. The army discovered to its shock that the firm had gone in a closed-door meeting with military officials at South bankrupt and was unable to supply weapons. Block—import weapons only from four of New Delhi’s The leverage that producing weapons indigenously offers strategic partners because they would always ‘find a way’. is well known. During the 1971 Bangladesh War, the Indian This perhaps explains the rush of small arms imports government had supplied the ‘Mukti Bahini’ freedom-fighters over the past four years, two of them being contracted under with rifles and carbines produced by the ordnance factories. emergency fast-track provisions. Last year, the army pur- The present-day inability of the ordnance factories to replace chased 72,000 rifles worth Rs 700 crore from US gun-mak- the army’s frontline infantry weapons, introduced between the er SIG Sauer under a fast-track process. The army also wants 1960s and 1990s, with modern firearms has led to the current to import 93,895 carbines from the UAE, a country with no deluge of imports by the armed forces, police and paramilitary. history of arms manufacturing. Waiting in the wings is a The army’s frequent changes in weapons and calibres could be contract to produce 750,000 AK-203 rifles in partnership another reason for its own troubles. The world’s largest ground forces have not standardised on a single rifle calibre and are now equipped with a hodgepodge of three major calibres and

FEBRUARY 22, 2021 INDIA TODAY 49 SPECIAL REPORT DEFENCE

with Russia. Army chief General M.M. Naravane said on January 12 that the contract would be signed soon.

QUESTIONABLE IMPORTS Imports lead to more imports. The army has already

placed a repeat order of 72,000 rif les with the US man- RAJWANT RAWAT ufacturer. Several other acquisitions make no sense BULLSEYE A 9x19 mm carbine designed by Indian Army’s because cheaper, indigenous options exist. The AK-203, Lt Col Prasad Bansod and unveiled ahead of Army Day (Jan. 15) for instance, is a modernised version of the iconic Rus- sian rif le developed by General Mikhail Kalashnikov in 1947. Other than the wooden ‘furniture’ replaced by polymers and The recent import of 16,447 LMGs from Israel is a case in the addition of a Piccatiny rail (for clamping weapon sights) point, say the officials. A larger order for 30,000 LMGs will on the dust cover, little has changed. be placed with Indian industry. The MoD already has two weapon factories producing Not just quality and reliability, lack of innovation is an- cheaper AK-47 clones (the original unpatented AK-47 rifle has other concern with OFB products. It took a serving Indian been freely copied across the world)—the ‘Trichy Assault Rifle’ at Army officer from the Infantry School, Lt Col Prasad Ban- Ordnance Factory Tiruchirappalli and ‘Ghatak’ at Rifle Factory sod, to recently design in-house the replacement for the OFB- Ishapore, West Bengal. The Trichy Assault Rifle and the Ghatak produced World War II-era 9 mm Sterling submachine gun. cost over Rs 50,000 each. The AK-203 will cost Rs 75,000 each The trust deficit explains why India’s small arms units— because India has to pay Russia licensing fees. among the world’s largest—are starved of fresh orders, with infrastructure established over decades lying idle. Three he larger problem, as Lt Gen Sanjay Kulkarni, former ordnance factories in Ishapore, Trichy and Kanpur—capable director general-Infantry, says, is that all stakehold- of producing nearly 100,000 rifles and carbines every year— ers—users, designers and producers—work in silos. stopped getting major orders after production of the INSAS T Gen. Kulkarni was part of a 2016 Ordnance Factory rifle stopped two years ago. These factories are the only ones Board (OFB)-army collaboration, which developed the INSAS in the country that can manufacture gun barrels using im- 1C, the most improved variant of the 1980s’ rifle. The weapon ported barrel-making machines, each costing Rs 40 crore. was shelved after the army changed its requirements. The road to imports is littered with carcasses of promising CALL FOR R&D indigenous weapon prototypes. In 2020, the Joint Venture Basic firearms technology has changed little in close to a Protective Carbine (JVPC), a collaborative effort of DRDO century, which explains the continued utility of the vin- (Defence Research and Development Organisation) and OFB, tage AK-47. Waiting around the corner are breakthrough became the first such Indian designed and produced weapon to technologies that could transform a soldier’s basic weapon. pass army trials. It has yet to get orders from the army. The MoD These include caseless ammunition cartridges encased in threw open the small arms sector to private players in 2005. A lightweight polymers instead of brass, developing new inter- handful of private manufacturers are in the fray, mostly in part- mediate calibre rounds like the 6.8 mm (which could solve nership with global arms-makers, but are yet to bag any orders. the army’s dilemma of choosing between a lighter 5.56 and Interestingly, only one major small arms calibre—assault rif les heavier 7.62 mm round) and day-and-night weapon-aiming in the 7.62x39 mm calibre (the AK-47 calibre)—has so far been sights that allow for dramatically improved accuracies. De- placed on the MoD’s negative list, prohibiting their import after fence analyst Rear Admiral Sudarshan Y. Shrikhande (re- December 2021. This, as worried indigenous manufacturers tired) says future-proofing the armed forces can come only point out, means all other calibres can continue to be imported. with substantial R&D by both the army and industry. No Supporting indigenous weapons with orders brings inno- such investments are being made. This technology gap in the vation. Ordnance Factory Tiruchirappalli used the experience years ahead means the inevitable—more imports. gained from supplying around 15,000 Trichy Assault Rifles to “Aatmanirbhar Bharat should not just be about buying the Union home ministry and state police units to produce a an Indian weapon, it should be about future-proofing the breakthrough compact AK-47 carbine last year. The shadow army to ensure that they don’t look anywhere else for the of the INSAS rifle—dogged by quality and reliability issues in next 50 years. That can only happen by investing in Indian its service life—though, continues to loom over OFB projects. industry,” says Vivek Krishnan, CEO of SSS Defence, the Senior army officials say most OFB products have failed only private sector firm with its own range of sniper rifles, the army’s stringent trials while all imported weapons had carbines and assault rifles. In the absence of such hand- passed trials and were the lowest bidders. Imports, though, holding efforts, arms imports will continue to remain the are only a short-term solution to immediate operational needs. attractive option well into the future. n

50 INDIA TODAY FEBRUARY 22, 2021 PROFILE KISHORE BIYANI

Stress Test From having to sell his business to facing legal challenges on his deal with Reliance and a one-year ban from the capital markets, retail icon Kishore Biyani finds himself in distinctly inglorious circumstances

By M.G. ARUN

ishore Biyani, 59, CEO of the Future Group, whose name became a byword for corporate innovation, is also a close observer of human psychology, a street-smart entrepre- neur who often ignored PowerPoint presentations and instead backed his business instincts. Often called the pioneer of organised retail in India, Biyani consistently bet K on the Indian consumer’s penchant for physical shopping before the onslaught of online retail shook up his busi- ness empire. The Republic Day sales of Big Bazaar, his grocery retail chain, regularly attracted tens of thousands, to the point that in some cases—as he wrote in his 2007 memoir It Happened in India—the fear was not running low on stocks but the safety of shoppers. In time, Big Bazaar became a hugely popular one-stop shop for the Indian RACHIT GOSWAMI RACHIT PROFILE KISHORE BIYANI

middle class. As the popularity of Big The e-commerce challenge pushing him closer to defaulting on his Bazaar soared, Biyani’s ambitions took After a decade of high growth, the Fu- loans. The absence of an e-commerce wing, too. However, the e-tail boom ture Group’s business began to slow post arm closed all doors on his business. disrupted his business, compelling him 2010. The success of e-tailers such as The deal that Biyani stuck with to overhaul the group in 2015. More Flipkart, Snapdeal and Amazon, on the Reliance Retail during the pandemic recently, the Covid pandemic played back of discounts and doorstep-delivery was just what the doctor ordered. havoc with his offline business model. convenience, was a big threat. So was Mukesh Ambani, 63, chairman of In- Forced to strike a deal with Reliance the growth of rival Reliance Retail. Bi- dia’s largest private sector firm Reliance Retail to sell the family silver, Biyani yani had no option but to shake his firm Industries, harboured big ambitions in now finds himself in a legal quagmire, out of slumber in 2015, with new initia- e-tail but had little to boast of in offline with e-tail giant Amazon challeng- tives he said would mark the group’s retail except for electronics (compris- ing the deal in a Singapore court. In a ‘rebirth’—white-label FMCG products ing three-fourths of Reliance Retail’s far cry from the accolades he won at under Future Consumer Enterprises, al- stores and giving it Rs 45,000 crore the height of his career, he now faces lowing shoppers to shop from anywhere in annual sales). He found in Future a one-year ban from the bourses— and take deliveries anywhere, and so on. Group the perfect platform for his retail market regulator Sebi (Securities and (Under the white label strategy, prod- play. Many feel that at Rs 24,713 crore, Exchange Board of India) has pressed ucts made by one company would be the deal came cheap for Ambani, but insider trading charges in a 2017 case, packaged and sold by other companies Biyani could not have asked for better. an order he has challenged. under various brand names.) While valuations have been soaring Over the next few years, Biyani, for e-commerce players and have at- ig Bazaar made Biyani an who prefers to be spartan in his per- tracted global giants such as Amazon icon in the retail business, sonal life and has a connect with his and Walmart to the Indian market, but that was not his start- staff due to his accessibility, continued there are not many takers for brick-and- ing point. After dabbling in to increase his store count, taking the mortar businesses—especially during his family’s fabric trading number to 1,800 across formats, from a pandemic that caused almost total business in Mumbai (his apparel and lifestyle to groceries. Flush economic paralysis. In short, Ambani grandfather had moved with funds from banks, he acquired was nothing less than a saviour for there from Rajasthan’s as many as six companies in the past Biyani. The deal was a steal for Ambani. Nimbi Jodha to open a textile shop), seven years to expand his reach. By When complete, it would create a Rs 1.2 heB ventured into making fashion- 2019-20, revenues from the business lakh crore business for him, four times ready fabric in 1983. The Manz Wear he ultimately sold to Reliance Retail bigger than Reliance Retail’s nearest brand he launched in 1987 would later stood at Rs 28,272 crore. But his debt rival, Avenue Supermart, which runs become Pantaloons. In 1992, he listed was mounting too. Future Retail’s the popular DMart stores. Pantaloon Retail on the stock market debt, which Reliance took over as part to fund his expansion plans. In 2012, of the deal, stood at Rs 19,000 crore. Amazon, Reliance at war as the debt pile kept mounting, he sold The final blow came in the form of the But e-tail giant Amazon threw a span- his majority stake in Pantaloon Retail pandemic, halting his business and ner in the works. In 2019, Amazon had to Aditya Birla Nuvo for Rs 1,600 acquired a 49 per cent stake in Future crore. What remained were Big Bazaar, Coupons, a promoter group entity of Central, Ezone, Brand Factory and Future Retail, for around Rs 2,000 HomeTown brands. “What worked for With his retail crore. The deal would help place Future him (in the early years) was that his business model Retail’s products on Amazon’s online group was willing to try out different market, and also gave Amazon a ‘call’ [business] concepts and did not shy done in by the option—it could acquire all or part away from failure,” says Devangshu pandemic and of Future Coupon’s promoter, Future Dutta, CEO of Third Eyesight, a con- Retail’s shareholding in the company, sultancy. This innovative spirit gave the e-tail competition, in three to 10 years of the agreement. Future Group a bigger footprint than Biyani will Amazon challenged Biyani’s sale to many others. Balancing the raising of Ambani at the Singapore International capital, deploying it into ventures and desperately hope Arbitration Centre (SIAC), arguing that figuring out which ones worked and his deal with the Future-Reliance deal violated its which didn’t was a tough juggling act, right-of-first-refusal agreement and a which Biyani managed well. But fresh Reliance Retail non-compete clause it had signed with trouble was in the offing. goes through the Future Group in 2019. In October

52 INDIA TODAY FEBRUARY 22, 2021 1987: Biyani enters the 2016: Forays into con- 2021 apparel business by sumer goods by launch- launching the Manz ing 27 private labels Feb 2: A single bench Wear brand, later in 64 categories of the Delhi High Court orders a renamed Pantaloons Dec 2019: Amazon freeze on the Future- 1992: He lists acquires 49 per cent Reliance deal Pantaloon Retail in Future Coupons, a on the stock market promoter group entity of Feb 3: Sebi bars Biyani, his brother Anil, 2001: Plans diversifi- Future Retail, for around and a few others from cation, sets up Big Rs 2,000 crore the stock market Bazaar grocery stores Aug 2020: Future for a year in an insider Retail sells its retail, 2012: Sells his majority trading case dating wholesale, logistics and stake in Pantaloon back to 2017 Retail to Aditya Birla warehousing units to Feb 8: A two-judge Nuvo, with the latter Reliance Retail for bench of the Delhi investing Rs 1,600 Rs 24,713 crore High Court stays JOURNEY crore in the firm Oct 2020: Following the order of the single an appeal by Amazon, 2015: Launches white- bench. The next a single bench of the label FMCG products un- hearing of the Singapore International der Future Consumer case is slated for OF A Arbitration Centre bars Enterprises, allowing February 26 shoppers to shop from Future Retail from taking anywhere and take any step to sell its assets RETAILER deliveries anywhere to another party

2020, a single bench of the court of the equally aggressive and cash-rich player became public knowledge on April 20, SIAC barred Future Retail from taking like Reliance should lock horns with Biyani and his associates had been buy- any step to sell its assets to another Amazon, he adds. In the recent past, ing Future Retail shares from March party. On February 2 this year, a single brick-and-mortar retail players have onward that year. The funds to buy these bench of the Delhi High Court ordered found the going tough as e-tailers, with shares were transferred from Future a freeze on the Future-Reliance deal, their deep discounts and aggressive Corporate, a Biyani family-controlled but on February 8, a two-judge bench advertising have stormed the market. entity. Biyani has moved the Securities of the court stayed that order. The next Only corporates with deep pockets, Appellate Tribunal against the order. hearing is slated for February 26. such as the Tata Group, the Aditya Birla According to Sonam Chandwani, Most experts see the battle between Group and Reliance Industries have managing partner at KS Legal & As- the Future Group and Amazon over been able to stand up to this challenge. sociates, “it is evident that the Sebi the Future-Reliance deal as a fight for Biyani’s aggression, which helped him order is unsustainable as it treats a control of the Indian e-tail landscape. grow in the initial years, boomeranged publicly-known reorganisation of the While Covid-19 hit the retail segment during his foray into FMCG, where he Future Group business as unpublished badly, e-commerce has seen some was pitted against established players price-sensitive information. How- traction with an increasing number such as Britannia, ITC and HUL. ever, whether Biyani’s trading in 2017 of people ordering products and fresh amounts to [exploiting] unpublished goods online. A report by Deloitte and Fresh trouble price-sensitive information remains a the Retailers Association of India said If that weren’t enough trouble already debatable issue in this case.” In a state- in 2019 that Indian e-commerce, val- for Biyani, on February 3, Sebi barred ment to the BSE, Future Retail said that ued at $24 billion (Rs 1.75 lakh crore) him, and several related entities, includ- the Sebi order barring Biyani from the in 2017, would jump to $84 billion ing his brother Anil, from trading in the capital market will have no impact on (Rs 6 lakh crore) by 2021. India is an securities market for one year, follow- the Future-Reliance merger process. attractive market for global e-tail giants ing an insider trading case dating back A man who regularly made the such as Amazon and Walmart (which to 2017. Biyani has also been barred headlines, Biyani is again in the spot- bought Flipkart in May 2018) as they from transacting in securities of Future light—but for the wrong reasons. Now, eye growth in emerging markets. With Retail for two years. As per the case, Fu- as the retail world watches the unfolding China out of bounds for these players, ture Retail consolidated its home retail battle in the e-commerce space, the big India is the land of promise, but they business in April 2017, which benefitted question is whether this is the end of need to invest big, deep and early, says the company’s stock. Sebi’s investiga- the road for Biyani, or whether he has Dutta. It is only natural, then, that an tion found that while the consolidation something else up his sleeve. n

FEBRUARY 22, 2021 INDIA TODAY 53

CINEMA

With cinemas operating at full capacity again, producers and studios are announcing HIBASISH SARKAR, GROUP CHIEF EXECUTIVE OF- FICER OF RELIANCE ENTERTAINMENT, was one of release dates for the the many Bollywood studio executives to keenly follow the daily box office collections of the Tamil film Master. blockbusters they Starring the industry’s two popular actors—Thalapathy have been sitting on ethupati—the drama since its release on January 13 has collected over Rs 150 crore domestically, with an additional Rs 100 crore for the past year worldwide. The figures were impressive given that until February 1, cine- mas in India were operating at 50 per cent occupancy. “It has given oxygen to the Indian film industry,” says Sarkar. “Its success proves that audiences are hungry for outdoor entertainment experience.” Ever since the Centre permitted cinemas to operate at full occupancy, the focus is on Sarkar who has held on to two of Reliance’s prized assets—the Rohit Shetty-directed BY SUHANI SINGH Sooryavanshi with Akshay Kumar and Kabir Khan’s ’83 which restages India’s maiden World Cup title. For exhibitors, the two Hindi films are instrumental to revive the bad- ly hit theatrical industry, one of the last businesses to reopen fully. Sarkar is hopeful that they will be able to release one of the two films during the Holi-Good Friday period in the last week of March or early April with the second scheduled for June. But the official release date will come only after he has reached an understanding with distributors for his biggies made on an estimated budget of Rs 200 crore each. “We have been sitting with the films for the past year and the cost and commercials have gone for a toss,” says Sarkar. “We have lost so much that we are no longer in a place to take

advantage of the situation.” Since cinemas reopened on October 15, 2020, only a handful of films managed to lure audiences back to the big screens—Tenet and Wonder Woman 1984 in multiplexes, a few Bengali titles such as Dracula Sir during Durga Puja in West Bengal and Ravi Teja’s Krack in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. The business was muted as cinemas ran on old releases and producers opted to release small, independent films. Master then became the ailing industry’s beacon of hope. “It turned the whole argument, that customers will take a long time to return to theatres, on its head,” says Kamal Gianchandani, CEO, PVR Pictures Limited, and president of the Multiplex As- sociation of India. “It is just a question of a massive film with a big star cast releasing [to get audiences back].”

uoyed by Master’s success, producers in the South have already announced Bac in B release dates for star-driven films [see acti n box]. Bollywood, though, remains cautious. (clockwise Salman Khan was the first Bollywood star to from left) confirm the release date of his next, Radhe, Ranveer Singh on Eid, after a consolidated social media in ’83; Akshay Kumar in campaign by cinema owners to request the Bellbottom; and actor-producer to save the exhibition indus- Salman Khan try. Among other big-budget releases, Aamir in Radhe Khan’s Laal Singh Chadha will arrive only on December 24, while of the multiple Akshay Kumar releases, only Bellbottom has a release date yet, April 2. Neither Yash Raj Films nor Dharma Entertainment has blocked any dates. For producer Bhushan Kumar, managing director of T-Series, the wariness stems from the fact that the theatre-going audience in the South is quite different from those in the North and West. (Master earned Rs 138 crore in Tamil Nadu alone.) “They are big movie buffs,” says Kumar, while talking about how crowds jostled to buy tickets for Master in the state. “We [Bollywood] cannot be too excited by Master’s performance. We are worried about the OTT-viewing habits of people.” Kumar in 2020 sold at least three titles to OTT platforms—Chhalaang and Durgamati to Amazon Prime, and Ludo to Netflix—with another one, Bhuj: Pride of India, lined up for release on Disney+ Hotstar, to reduce its backlog. “My inventory is a lot more compared to any other studio,” says Kumar. “Had I not taken the OTT route and waited for theatres

Despite Master’s success in the south, Bollywood remains cautious because of the audience’s OTT viewing habits CINEMA 2021 RELEASES April to open and the public to return like they Karnan did in pre-Covid times, my films would not Dhanush stars get many shows in a crowded calendar.” in this Tamil drama directed he battle for holiday weekend dates by Mari Selvaraj has begun. There are at least two big of Pariyerum Perumal fame T clashes: Radhe will vie for the public’s attention along with John Abraham-starrer March 26 Satyameva Jayate 2, and October 13 will May 13 see the Ajay Devgn-led football drama Haathi Mere Maidaan face a formidable rival in RRR, Saathi/ Kaadan/ Acharya S.S. Rajamouli’s first film since Bahubali 2. Aaranya Father-son duo While Kumar felt it wasn’t an issue and said The multilingual film sees Chiranjeevi and Ram that audiences “need variety like how they Rana Daggubati save Charan come together get on OTT”, Boney Kapoor was peeved with the habitat of elephants in this action-packed Rajamouli as he had locked the release date from the evil grasp of a potboiler corporation for Maidaan last year itself. “When the call of the film industry should be to stand by each April 9 July 2 other...a date clash of two big multilingual films is the last thing that we could expect,” Vakeel Saab Major he told a news agency. “We have to give space The Telugu remake of Produced by Telugu star to each other so as to optimise the numbers.” Hindi drama Pink, it Mahesh Babu, this action The year 2021 will not only see held over marks the comeback drama is inspired by the 2020 titles, which includes many Hollywood of Pawan Kalyan who life of NSG commando Sandeep Unnikrishnan, offerings as well, but also a slate of new films, plays the part that won Amitabh Bachchan the a martyr in the 26/ 11 at- resulting in a crammed release calendar. It National Award tack on Taj hotel, Mumbai doesn’t help that “India is a terribly under- screened market”, notes Gianchandani. India July 16 has less than 10,000 screens for a country which tops in maximum releases yearly. And K.G.F. the screen count is only dwindling further Chapter 2 post-lockdown. PVR closed three properties, The stakes get equalling 14 screens, last year. Meanwhile, higher for the follow- hundreds of single-screen cinemas perma- up to one of Kannada nently ceased operations. Nonetheless, some cinema’s biggest films which sees cinema owners remain optimistic. “We have Sanjay Dutt and been saying that 2021 is the year of cinema,” Raveena Tandon join says Rajender Singh Jyala, chief program- the cast ming officer, INOX Leisure Ltd. “With over 50 titles in Hindi and other Indian languages expected to hit the screens, the industry is poised to see major blockbusters through the year.” Gianchandani declared that “2021, waived any theatrical revenue earned after the film released online. Interna- especially the second half, will see business tionally, too, Hollywood studios have cut short the interval between theatre to like we haven’t seen in almost a decade”. streaming release. Universal will now have its films streaming online merely Such a scenario is dependent on how 17 days after they hit theatres, while Warner Bros, much to the dismay of US producers and cinema owners agree on issues cinemas, will do a simultaneous theatrical and online release. A producer, who such as virtual print fee, charged by theatres chose to not be named, says theatre owners in the South were more supportive from producers to have their films show- and flexible compared to those elsewhere. “There is a fear that people won’t cased, and window for theatre-to-digital come to theatres,” he says. “If we shorten the window, we get extra money from releases. Master was available on Amazon our digital partners and recover the loss we incur in theatres.” Prime just 16 days after it hit the big screens, Gianchandani, though, sees Master as “an exception to the rule rather than deviating from the traditional pattern of a the rule, going forward”. He cites the film’s decent showing in Tamil Nadu even one-month waiting period for Tamil and after its release on OTT—Rs 2.78 crore in the third week—and says: “It shows Telugu films and two for Hindi. To enable the resilience of theatres despite OTT being the more inexpensive proposition.” a quick OTT release, Master’s producers Meanwhile, Bollywood awaits its own Master to save the day. „ SHREYA GHOSHAL: SAJAN MANI’S ADDING ANOTHER BODY OF WORK OCTAVE PG 61 PG 63

KITCHEN SINK Q&A WITH REALISM VIDHU VINOD PG 64 CHOPRA PG 66

MUSIC ALWAYS AT LARGE

By making headlines alongside his new music, the real Mehndi Daler is again standing up

DALER MEHNDI’S latest track, ‘Ishq Nachave’, already has a million views on YouTube JUAN PÉREZ-FAJARDO JUAN LEISURE

fund their own music videos, making pop music an unviable option for veterans like him. “A Daler Mehndi video usu- ally costs Rs 30 lakh to make. Even the ‘Ishq Nachave’ video must have cost Eros some Rs 55 lakh. Mind you, this doesn’t include the Rs 6 lakh for my costumes. I paid for that.” Hearing Mehndi refer to himself in the third person, it’s hard not to think of him as iconic. Helped by hyperbole, the myth of Daler Mehndi is one he perpetuates himself. “During the lockdown, it was Daler Mehndi’s songs that were most downloaded on Spotify,” he claims. “If there is a party happen- ing anywhere in the world, it’s a given that three or four of my songs will play. My fans are everywhere, from Bengal to South Korea.” In hindsight, it was his 1995 debut album, Bolo Ta Ra Ra, that helped Punjabi music enter the pop mainstream. The singer says, “It was Daler Mehndi who created a parallel industry to Bollywood, one that continues to thrive today.” Mehndi’s celebrity, it must be noted, has lasted all of 25 years. While ‘Ishq Nachave’ already has more than a million Daler Mehndi, it would seem, is back. Weeks after farm- views on YouTube, he also has over 600,000 followers on ers burnt his effigies in Punjab, calling him a govern- Twitter. Not all his tweets, sadly, are loved as much as, say, ment stooge, the singer enjoyed a pop resurgence last ‘Dardi Rab Rab’ or ‘Ho Jayegi Balle Balle’. In September last month. His latest track, ‘Ishq Nachave’, was released by a year, for instance, he tweeted a video urging farmers to sup- reputed music label—Eros Music. The music video, much port the BJP government’s controversial farm bills. “I had to like the song, felt like a throwback to the late 1990s. The suffer crores of galis. They called me Modiji’s chamcha. I am foreign locations, svelte dancers and amateur special now scared to go to Punjab. I don’t know what they will do. effects were all typical of the Mehndi formula we once I’m not a politician. I don’t have much security.” bought unthinkingly. Watching Mehndi again groove Speaking to INDIA TODAY from Delhi a day after the to his beat in glittery and garish gowns, you rea lised an capital’s Red Fort was overrun by protesting farmers, Mehndi obvious truth: Times have changed. Mehndi has not. says he was saddened by the images he saw, “but I didn’t make In the past few years, public appearances have been a a video byte because people are so quick to call you a pithu bittersweet experience for Mehndi. “I’m loved by everyone (stooge)”. Speaking of the agricultural land he owns in Sohna, from Kashmir to Kanyakumari. They smile the minute Haryana, Mehndi says his problems are even greater than they see me, but when they come to click selfies, they all those of a common farmer. “I only use cow dung as manure, ask, ‘Paaji, where have you been?’” The singer says he can- you see. I have 70 desi cows. I don’t allow any pesticides. I not help his petulance at such times. He reminds his fans know the pain of farmers, but I also know that artistes like me of films—Dangal (2016), Bahubali 2 (2017), Uri (2019)— will never be able to find a solution to the present crisis.” that featured his “super-hit” songs. “I tell them that all the As Mehndi talks about his philanthropy—he says he motivational songs on their playlists are mine.” planted 800,000 trees in Delhi in 1998—one wonders if his Mehndi is surprisingly candid about his fee. “If you charity is atonement. In 2018, he was convicted in a 2003 want Daler Mehndi to sing a song for your film, it’s human trafficking case and sentenced to two years in jail. Rs 12 lakh plus GST. For friends, my rate is “The whole case was a fraud,” he says. Rs 6 lakh plus GST, but for religious films—about “All I understand is rhythm, ragas Mata Rani—I tell producers they can pay and lay (melody). I know noth- me what they like,” he says. Other LER MEHNDI’S ing about the law. I am lucky I got singers, he points ouut, are usually DALE bail. We’re still fighting the case. sent home with cheqques of only Rs I’m sure truth will win, but I’ll 18,000. “I’m lucky people CELLEBRITY, WHICH tell you what I lost—shows, ads still come to me.” and awards. I would have gotten Making the casee that BEEGAN WITH HIS awards bigger than the Padma the music industry is DEBUT ALBUM Vibhushan.” Like everything else often exploitative, 995 about Mehndi—clothes, music, Mehndi, 53, talks , persona—his assertions too are of how artistes are BOLOB TA RA RA flamingly opulent. ■ now expected to HASH LASTED ALL —Shreevatsa Nevatia OF 25 YEARS Another

With some he p rom her brother, Shreya Ghoshal is widening an already brimming repertoire

ccording to Spotify, never needed to think about Shreya Ghoshal’s what I want to do or the 2020 was noth- new kind of music I should A ing short of ter- explore,” she says. “But he rific—256.5 million streams, kept asking, ‘What do you 17.1 million hours and 15.8 want to do?’” million listeners in 92 coun- Though both siblings tries. The 36-year-old singer were musically trained ranked seventh in the list of from a young age—Ghoshal most-streamed artistes in learnt classical vocals, India and was one of only two and Soumyadeep the tabla female artistes to feature in and guitar—it was she who the top 10. Ghoshal, though, wanted to pursue a career in has never cared for such performing arts. Having won figures. “It has never given the talent show, Sa Re Ga Ma me a feeling of satisfaction,” Pa Lil Champs, she was only she says. They also don’t 17 when she made her Hindi dictate the films or records playback debut with Devdas she lends her voice to. (2002). In a career spanning “There is constant pressure nearly two decades, Ghoshal from labels on artistes for has recorded songs in Tamil, creating commercial value Telugu, Malayalam, Kannada, with everything you do,” she Marathi and Bengali and won adds. “There is no meaning to four National Awards along it. What will be remembered the way. is what was created for the Not until the pandemic pure love of music.” Ghoshal has always avoided the well-trodden path. She hasn’t “What will be judged a talent show on remembered television in over five years is what was and her social media feeds created for the pure love of aren’t inundated with covers, music” remixes or paid promotions. Instead, she operates at a rare, measured rhythm. had Ghoshal taken a break. Produced by her younger The singer took up gardening brother Soumyadeep, and set up a tiny studio at Ghoshal’s latest single, home. She performed virtual ‘Angana Morey’, might have concerts and engaged with a contemporary pop vibe, her fans on social media. She but the song, it is clear, plays released a single with Shan- to the singer’s classical tanu Moitra and worked on strengths. After ‘Nah Woh a project with Sanjay Leela Main’, a track that released Bhansali. But it was working in March 2020, this is the with Soumyadeep that led second time Ghoshal has col- her to adopt a new resolu- laborated with Soumyadeep, tion. “I’m proactively going a US-based techie. Ghoshal to do more collaborations,” credits him with broadening she says. “I want to welcome her sensibilities. “With a full- new lyricists, composers and fledged film music career, I instrumentalists.” n —Suhani Singh omposing a lines to denote striated fields landscape is of sky or water; and crafted, inherently an with the labour involved so act of taming evident that it almost seems nature. There mechanical. One has to step Cisn’t necessarily a direct back from the frame to make relation between the rules of sense of this confusing thicket. artistic composition (perspec- A few works offer greater tive, thirds, movement within visual relief. Some are set in the frame) and the order of oval frames, others include nature (the internal symmetry a man-made element, like a of flowers, heliotropic growth, bamboo-thatched house, cut- topography formed by centu- ries of erosion). Chandan Bez Baruah’s woodblock land- Bez Baruah’s scape prints acknowledge this series is an dichotomy in several ways. allusion to the On view till March 1 at Delhi’s famous thought Gallery Latitude 28, the series experiment is titled If A Tree Falls (Some- about where in Northeast India), an reality and allusion to the famous thought perception experiment about reality and perception. An opening note by curator Waswo X. Waswo (artist and a collector of Indian prints) refers to a con- ting through the frame. One ART troversial 1884 investigation of two larger tetraptychs is in Scientific American, which pleasantly illustrative, captur- The concluded, “If there be no ears ing a dappled, tree-flanked to hear [a tree fall], there will road, possibly somewhere in Nature of be no sound.” Bez Baruah’s home state of In a majority of these Assam. Though still devoid monochrome prints, Bez Ba- of people, it recalls the fine Things ruah works to erase his own detailed, bucolic works of presence in the landscape by Haren Das, a throwback and a A rare exhibition in Delhi forces you to see privileging detail and natural departure from the more pho- both the woods and the trees patterns over the conventions toreal works surrounding it. of compositional balance. All these prints are a stark Most of his frames are marked departure from Bez Baruah’s by lush chaos and overgrowth, previous lithographs, par- with tiny, detailed leaves and ticularly a series centred on twigs overwhelming the larger military motifs. The works in picture. In terms of compo- If A Tree Falls are less literal sition, some of the frames and metaphoric, still they appear as careless glances produce subtle layers of mean- over a landscape rather than ing. To indulge in the idea that studied meditations, which perception creates reality is a CARVING A is strangely at odds with the dangerous human presump- NICHE (top to bottom) painfully meticulous hand- tion, the trees seem to mur- Chandan Bez carved nature of each wood- mur. The digital or human Baruah’s work on block. At once, the images are eye (or ear) is omnipresent; display as part photorealistic (Bez Baruah the question is not whether a of his exhibition, If A Tree Falls uses digital photos for refer- falling tree makes a sound, but (Somewhere in ence); graphic, with technical whether we’re listening. n Northeast India) patterns such as thin parallel —Sonal Shah

62 INDIA TODAY FEBRUARY 22, 2021 LEISURE

ART hirty-nine-year-old Sajan largely outcomes of the “Brahmanical Mani is a Berlin-based knowledge production”. His critically- intersectional artist, but acclaimed show, Alphabet of Touch >< T he identifies himself as Overstretched Bodies and Muted Howls a “Black Dalit Body”. It’s for Songs, at NOME Gallery, Berlin, which the idiom of Mani’s work, opened last year, stands as testimony. As HIS which has recently fetched him the part of the performance, Mani filled the much-feted Berlin Art Prize. The annual room with artistic renderings of protest prize—a cash component of €5,000 songs by Dalit activist and poet Poykayil (Rs 4.3 lakh) and a citation—was instituted Appachan (1879-1939). “Performance is by Berlin’s Akademie der Künste in 1971, a suitable art form. And my tryst with my and it is presented to artists as well as own body as a meeting point of history BODY cultural practitioners in six categories. and the present instigated me to concen- Mani received the honour in the vi- trate on my body as a socio-political sual arts category. Yet, he feels, metaphor,” he adds. “I don’t think art happened to Through his Currently, Mani is working me; rather, I happened to art.” art, SAJAN on an ongoing artistic research hopes to Mani, who was born into MANI project, ‘Political Yoga’, which OF a family of rubber tappers in provide a Dalit is supported by Berliner a remote Kannur village in Ker- perspective in Projekfonds Kulturelle Bildung. ala, chose to pursue the path of postcolonial “Indian nationalists are using narratives performance art after completing yoga as a soft-power strategy his Bachelor of Fine Arts from Kar- and trying to obliterate the other WORK nataka State Open University, Mysore. issues. The cultural influence of yoga Mani’s personal stories are critical to serves to hide the repression of various his work. “I don’t really differentiate my minorities such as Dalits, Adivasis and Winner of this year’s life from my work,” he says. “I have been Muslims,” he reasons. “Through this proj- carrying my postcolonial Black Dalit Body ect, I hope to explore how social, cultural Berlin Art Prize, around. The experiences and discrimina- and geopolitical power dispositions are Sajan Mani will keep tion it has faced—at airports in north India reproduced in one’s own meditation and using his body to fight or in other parts of the world—made me body practices.” He will thus draw atten- discrimination want to confront the pain, shame, fear, tion back again to his “Black Dalit Body”, and power in a rather critical way.” which serves both as a medium of art Through his performance art, Mani and expression. „ hopes to provide the Dalit perspec- —Reema Gehi tive in postcolonial narratives that are

ART ATTACK (clockwise from left) Sajan Mani’s performance titled Caste-pital in Munich; #MakeinIndia in Bangladesh; and another titled Citizen Ship Burn It Down! in Canada

MARION VOGEL

FEBRUARY 22, 2021 INDIA TODAY 63 LEISURE

CINEMA KITCHEN SINK REALISM By telling the story of a woman imprisoned in her kitchen, Jeo Baby’s new film speaks for all women

ne of the first films water from the drainage pipe— to trend and make disturbs her every day. It is a headlines in 2021, The stark reminder of what her life Great Indian Kitchen is has, in a sense, become. defined by both its em- From his home in Cochin, Opathy and rigour. In one of the Jeo Baby, the film’s director, Malayalam film’s many power- says this detail—much like the ful scenes, we see the film’s film itself—was drawn from nameless protagonist—sym- his own life. “Every night, after bolic, perhaps, of every Indian spending time in the kitchen, woman—smell her hands after sharing its load equally with my a long, arduous day. Besides an wife, I would struggle to get that abundance of chores, she has smell off my hands,” he says. “I had to rustle up three elaborate found myself unable to focus on meals. The strange, unfamiliar anything; the more I smelt my smell of her hand—a combina- hand, the more I thought about tion of food, kitchen sink and my mother, my wife, my sister,

CINEMA A Great Leap of Faith Kajal Aggarwal’s refusal to be bound by limitations posed by language and platform has paid off

MILIND SHELTE/INDIA TODAY GROUP/GETTY IMAGES

64 INDIA TODAY FEBRUARY 22, 2021 and so many other women. The The film’s success is the kitchen itself became, for me, nuance with which it examines a prison, one that women were the male gaze, bringing to fore trapped in.” the complexity of emotions Streaming on Nee Stream, that its protagonist grapples a platform exclusively dedi- with. Small, subtle objects—the cated to Malayalam cinema, drumstick, for instance—be- The Great Indian Kitchen, come powerful metaphors of starring Nimisha Sajayan and patriarchy. In many ways, the Suraj Venjaramoodu, is a film also is an intensely stunning work of art. personal film, not just With a treatment for audiences, but also marked by accuracy JEO BABY’S its director. “For film represents and sensitivity, the patriarchy the longest time, I film serves up realistically, discussed this with painstakingly re- but without the my colleagues. We aggression alistic representation had to make a film that of patriarchy. Its voice, was different; a film for though, doesn’t reek of ourselves.” Produced entirely entitlement, nor is it patronis- in-house, The Great Indian ing in any way. “We were very Kitchen also toasts the sheer joy particular,” Baby says. “The that comes from creative free- film is not, in any way, aggres- dom, of breaking free from the sive. We did not want to make a clutches of society and its many villain of the man, you see. The expectations. In the end, it’s this HOME PROJECT men in the film are symbolic of very sensation that the film stirs On the sets of The Great Indian Kitchen the common man like me, too, up in us. n sometimes.” —Akhila Krishnamurthy

hen Kajal Aggarwal Covid-19 pandemic which disrupted the tries have also given her fame, including bagged her debut film theatrical business and brought OTT plat- a wax statute at Madame Tussauds in at 21, not only did she forms to the forefront. “Back then, it was Singapore last year, and films such as W not speak a word of like, ‘let’s see how this goes since it is go- Magadheera, Mr Perfect, Thuppakki and Telugu, the Mumbai- ing to be the next thing’. Now it is already Mersal. born Punjabi hardly fol- the big thing and it is here to stay forever. After 16 years of facing the camera, lowed Hindi cinema. But then Aggarwal It only validated my decision to do it.” she is no longer preoccupied only by has never shied away from a challenge. There are other decisions Aggarwal work. On October 30, 2020, Aggar- “I have been harping [on about] language took that have paid off. She left a job with wal married her best friend, Gautam not being a barrier for acting,” she says. a multinational beauty company and put Kitchlu. “My priorities have changed. “I believe that cinema establishes an her MBA plans on hold to Now I want to keep a bal- emotional connection regardless of work in the film industries ance,” says Aggarwal. The language.” in Hyderabad and Chennai. Kajal 18-hour work day, though, With Live Telecast, the Tamil horror “It was a massive cultural Aggarwal’s continues. She has signed web series which released on Disney+ shift,” says Aggarwal, who decision to do a three new films and has a Hotstar on February 12, she takes taught herself acting and release every month until another risk. Aggarwal signed the show two languages on the job. show for an OTT May—Mosagallu (March), in 2018 despite warnings that it would “But I am so glad I started platform stood Hey Sinamika (April) and sound the death knell for her film career. my career in the South. The her in good Acharya (May). It only reaf- “I was told ‘you are going to dilute your discipline and profession- stead in 2020 firms Aggarwal’s stance market, you won’t get big films after alism practised there have that “one’s marital status this’,” she recalls. She shot for the show shaped my ideology of should never be a hindrance in 2019. The next year brought the cinema.” The two indus- in your profession”. n —Suhani Singh

FEBRUARY 22, 2021 INDIA TODAY 65 Q. Apart from several QA anecdotes about filmmaking, you also talk about your personal life in this book. Was that kind of sharing hard? FRANKLY Abhijat has known me for over 26 years and he remembers more about my life than I do. He is like a brother to me. It was great fun. I think this was the best and possibly the only way I SPEAKING could share my life experiences be- cause I was not writing a book, I was actually talking to a friend. Filmmaker Vidhu Vinod Chopra has always been forthright, funny and fascinating. Unscripted, a book that records conversations between him and screenwriter Abhijat Joshi, is also all of those things Q. There are some beautiful moments in the book—Amitabh Bachchan reciting his father’s poetry in your house; R.D. Burman funding a song in Parinda. Is the industry still as Q. Unscripted reads like a warm, do you think? memoir, but it is, in fact, a My home is full of warmth. My of- conversation. How did the idea fice, where I make cinema, is full of of the book take shape? warmth. And frankly, whether the When Abhijat [Joshi] and I started industry is still warm or not is for you talking, we never imagined this could guys to decide, I don’t care one way be a book. We were just talking in a or the other. All I care about is keeping friendly way through the course of my life full of warmth and that I am our script sessions, and we did this always striving for. five years back. Much later, [author] Nasreen Munni Kabir looked at the reams of these manuscript pages lying in the closet and said, “Oh my god! There is a book here.” We said, “Sure, why not!”

Q. You were raised in a small mohalla in Kashmir. Today, you are one of the most success- ful filmmakers in the Hindi film industry. What have been the keys to your success? Frankly, my success baffles me. As we said in 3 Idiots, I have always chased excellence in my work and not success. That I am successful today is a miracle. DEODHAR

—with Shreevatsa Nevatia MANDAR

66 Volume XLVI Number 8; For the week February 16-22, 2021, published on every Friday Total number of pages 68 (including cover pages)