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Developing a New Methodology for Analyzing Potential Displacement

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Developing a New Methodology for Analyzing Potential Displacement Developing a New Methodology for Analyzing Potential Displacement University of California, Berkeley Principal Investigator: Karen Chapple Co-Principal Investigators: Paul Waddell Daniel Chatman With Miriam Zuk University of California, Los Angeles Principal Investigator: Anastasia Loukaitou-Sideris Co-Principal Investigator: Paul Ong With Silvia R. Gonzalez, Chhandara Pech, and Karolina Gorska Prepared for the California Air Resources Board and the California Environmental Protection Agency By the University of California, Berkeley and the University of California, Los Angeles ARB Agreement No. 13-310 April 26, 2017* * Updated from the March 24, 2017 version to clarify terms The statements and conclusions in this Report are those of the contractor and not necessarily those of the California Air Resources Board. The mention of commercial products, their source, or their use in connection with material reported herein is not to be construed as actual or implied endorsement of such products. Acknowledgements This Report was submitted in fulfillment of ARB Agreement No. 13-310 by the University of California, Berkeley under the partial sponsorship of the California Air Resources. Board. Work was completed as of 10/9/15. Chapter 2 and 5: The UC-Berkeley team is grateful for the advice of its advisory committee at MTC/ABAG, including Vikrant Sood, Carlos Romero, Peter Cohen, Gen Fujioka, Wayne Chen, Bob Allen, Duane Bay, Jennifer Martinez, and Johnny Jaramillo. Our case study research (groundtruthing and policy) in East Palo Alto, Chinatown, Marin City, the Mission, and San Jose benefited deeply from the participation of local community groups, including San Francisco Organization Project/Peninsula Interfaith Action, Chinatown Community Development Center, Marin Grassroots, PODER, and Working Partnerships. Chapter 3: Development of UrbanSim has been previously supported by the National Science Foundation Grants CMS-9818378, EIA-0090832, EIA-0121326, IIS- 0534094, IIS-0705898, IIS-0964412, and IIS-0964302 and by grants from the U.S. Federal Highway Administration, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, European Research Council, Maricopa Association of Governments, Puget Sound Regional Council, Oahu Metropolitan Planning Organization, Lane Council of Governments, Southeast Michigan Council of Governments, Metropolitan Transportation Commission and the contributions of many users. The application of UrbanSim to the San Francisco Bay Area was funded by the Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC). The following persons participated in the development of the research to adapt UrbanSim to address displacement issues in its application to the San Francisco Bay Area: Paul Waddell, City and Regional Planning, University of California Berkeley Samuel Maurer, City and Regional Planning, University of California Berkeley Samuel Blanchard, City and Regional Planning, University of California Berkeley This project has been done in close collaboration with the staff of the Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) and of the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG). In particular, we wish to acknowledge the leadership of Mike Reilly at MTC, with additional assistance from Aksel Olsen at ABAG. Many other staff at MTC and at ABAG have participated in the development of the data, the scenarios and the analysis described in this report. Chapter 4: Many thanks to those who provided assistance with NHTS and CHTS confidential data, and the remote system for using the CHTS, including Brennan Borlaug, Evan Burton, Jeff Gonder, Susan Liss, Jasmy Methipara, and Adella Santos. Thanks also to Karen Chapple for helpful comments that improved the paper, and for a large set of comments from numerous anonymous reviewers, organized by the California Air Resources Board. Table of Contents List of Tables………………………………………………………………………….…… i List of Figures………………………………………………………………………..……i ii Abstract………………………………………………………………………………..……v Executive Summary………………………………………………………………..…..v i Introduction………………………………………………………………………….…… 1 Chapter 1: Literature Review of Gentrification, Displacement, and the Role of Public Investment……………..…………………….…… 3 Chapter 2: Analysis of Historic Patterns of Neighborhood Change….…. 45 Chapter 3: Developing Tools for Analyzing Potential Displacement Impacts in SCS…………………………………………….………….…. 93 Chapter 4: Effects on Auto Use of Household Displacement from Rail Station Areas……………………….…………………………..… 156 Chapter 5: Anti-Displacement Policy Analysis…………………………….... 181 Conclusions…………………………………………………………………………..… 262 References…………………………………………………………………………….… 263 Appendices…………………………………………………………………………..… 285 Appendix A: Summary of Racial Transition and Succession Studies…………………………………………………………..285 Appendix B: Summary of the Impact of Rail Transit Facilities on Residential and Commercial Property Values……….. 291 Appendix C: Summary of Studies on TOD and Gentrification…….. 295 Appendix D: TOD Impacts in Los Angeles…………………………….... 297 Appendix E: Summary of Simulation Models of Gentrification…... 302 Appendix F: Census Tract Datasets……………………………………….. 304 Appendix G: Parcel-Level Datasets……………………………………….. 308 Appendix H: Data Cleaning Protocol for DataQuick Assessor and Transaction Data……………………………………….. 314 Appendix I: Sources and Definitions of Affordable Housing Data for Section 2E.2………………………………………… 317 Appendix J: Ground-Truthing Methodology for the Bay Area……. 318 Appendix K: Los Angeles Ground-Truthing Neighborhoods……..… 333 Appendix L: Detailed Ground-Truthing Methodology for Los Angeles…………………………………………………………… 336 Appendix M: Survey Instruments in Los Angeles……………………… 339 Appendix N: Interview Protocol for Los Angeles…………………….… 348 Appendix O: Detailed Assessments for LA Ground-Truthing Case Studies………………………………………………….... 352 Appendix P: Bay Area UrbanSim Models as Used in Plan Bay Area……………………………………………………………..… 361 Appendix Q: SCAG PECAS Estimated Aggregated TOD Impacts....381 Appendix R: In- and Out-Migration Regression Results…………..… 389 Appendix S: Average Daily VMT by Income and Rail Access……...391 Appendix T: Anti-Displacement Strategies and Sources…………..… 399 Appendix U: Policies adopted by each LA County City……………..401 Appendix V: Challenges Facing Inclusionary Zoning………………... 402 List of Tables Table 1.1 Indicators and Data Sources for Analyzing Gentrification and Displacement ......................... 36 Table 2A.1: Common Neighborhood-level Datasets Collected for Both Regions ........................................ 49 Table 2A.2: Common Address-level Datasets Collected for Both Regions ..................................................... 49 Table 2C.1: Summary Statistics for Transit Station Types in the Bay Area (Means) ................................. 53 Table 2C.2: Transit Neighborhood Tracts, Gentrified With/Without Development for Los Angeles County ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 54 Table 2C.3: Summary Statistics for Transit Neighborhood Types in the Bay Area (Means) .................. 55 Table 2C.4: Number of tracts that gentrified and did not gentrify in the 9-County Bay Area, Categorized by Transit Neighborhood Typology ..................................................................................................... 56 Table 2D.1: In-Out Migration, Parsimonious Multivariate Regressions ......................................................... 61 Table 2D.2: Bivariate Analysis by Subgroups, LA County and the Bay Area, 2009-2013 ........................ 62 Table 2D.3: Modeling Share of In-Movers by Subgroups, Multivariate Regressions for Los Angeles County, 2009-2013 ............................................................................................................................................................... 63 Table 2D.4: Modeling Share of In-Movers by Subgroups, Multivariate Regressions for the Bay Area, 2009-2013 ................................................................................................................................................................................ 64 Table 2E.1: Gentrification Criteria for Los Angeles, County Averages ............................................................ 65 Table 2E.2: Gentrification Criteria, Medians for the Nine-County Bay Area ................................................. 67 Table 2E.3: Logit Regressions of Gentrification, 1990-2000 and 2000-2013, Los Angeles ................... 70 Table 2E.4: Logit Regressions of Gentrification, 1990-2000 and 2000-2013, Bay Area ......................... 71 Table 2E.5: Changes in Affordable Housing, Linear Regressions (Los Angeles), ........................................ 72 Table 2E.6: Changes in Affordable Housing, Linear Regressions (Bay Area) ............................................... 73 Table 2E.7: Evictions and Condominium Conversions, Linear Regressions, San Francisco................... 73 Table 2E.8: Change of Low-income Households, Linear Regressions (Bay Area) ...................................... 75 Table 2F.1: Changes in Neighborhood Characteristics, LA County, 2000-2013* ........................................ 76 Table 2F.2: Table 2F.2: Neighborhood Change Multivariate Regressions, LA County, 2000-2013*... 77 Table 2F.3: Changes in Neighborhood Characteristics, SF Bay Area, 2000-2013*..................................... 78 Table 2F.4: Neighborhood Change Multivariate Regressions, SF Bay Area, 2000-2013 ........................
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