THINK TANK ANALYSIS Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V.

USA DR. CÉLINE-AGATHE CARO Would Trump prefer 28 phone numbers? March 21, 2017 AN ASSESSMENT OF THE US ADMINISTRATION’S POLICY ON EUROPE BY www.kas.de/usa LEADING AMERICAN THINK TANKS

Henry Kissinger’s famous question Perception of the EU

about whom to call when one wants to speak to Europe arose a time when the “Consortium” US considered dialogue with the Euro- peans to be vital, particularly in ques- During the election campaign and into the tions of foreign affairs and security. beginning of his tenure, there were several Having launched his presidency under occasions when President Trump voiced crit- the motto “America First”, Donald icism of the . This may be Trump has sown uncertainty as to the due in part to a general mistrust of multilat- future of the transatlantic partnership. eral organizations. Consequently, he sees

the EU mainly as an ineffectual bureaucratic How does the new US administration structure—incapable of creating jobs and fgf perceive the EU? How does it envisage growth in Europe—which makes life difficult its relations with Europe in the key ar- for entrepreneurs like himself because of its eas of trade and security? Which poli- tendency towards overregulation. During a cies are think tanks close to the gov- press conference with the British Prime Min- ernment recommending, and what do ister Theresa May on January 27, 2017, he other political experts think about the referred to the EU member states as a future of the Trump administration’s “consortium”.1 policy towards Europe? This analysis attempts to provide possible answers to these questions.

1 CNN, “Entire Trump-British PM News Confer- ence”, January 27, 2017. http://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2017/01/27/d

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Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. Trump also seems to consider the EU a su- The only person in the who pranational body that seeks to homogenize appears to have a positive attitude towards

its individual member states by restricting the EU is Vice President , who USA their sovereignty, particularly on immigra- reaffirmed the traditional US position to- DR. CÉLINE-AGATHE CARO tion. Due to this belief, he has stated that wards Europe on February 20, 2017 in will prove to be a “great thing”, and Brussels. During a press conference with EU March 21, 2017 that further member states will leave the EU Council President Donald Tusk, he said that because “people, countries want their own President Trump had asked him “to express identity”.2 the strong commitment of the www.kas.de/usa to continued co-operation and partnership For , Trump’s top advisor and with the European Union”. He went on to

chief political strategist in the White House, say: “Whatever our differences, our two there is no desirable alternative to national continents share the same heritage, the sovereignty, in the United States or for the same values and above all the same pur- USA’s traditional Western European allies. pose, to promote peace and prosperity He also supports Brexit as a way for the through freedom, democracy and the rule of 6 British to regain their sovereignty, and en- law”. courages similar movements in other EU countries. As far back as 2014, he made Integration vs. solidarity positive statements about nationalist movements in Europe during a conference The Heritage Foundation shares President 3 in the Vatican. According to , Ban- Trump’s negative stance towards the EU.7 non told the German ambassador to the In a report published on January 12, 2017, United States, Dr. Peter Wittig, in mid- it argued that European integration is caus- February 2017 that he considered the EU a ing increasing restrictions of political free- “flawed construct”, and preferred bilateral dom, greater economic tensions, and a dim- ties with European countries. After the inution of the transatlantic partnership in meeting, a Reuters source confirmed that the area of security. According to the au- the Europeans had better prepare for a poli- thors, this is due to the fact that the EU in- 4 cy of “hostility towards the EU”. terferes with national sovereignty, prevents the establishment of genuine transatlantic Businessman Ted Malloch, the US govern- free trade areas, is damaging to transatlan- ment’s pick for ambassador to the EU, is tic security, distorts European immigration also a Brexit supporter, who believes that policy, and wastes taxpayers’ money. Con- the euro will fail in the not too distant fu- sequently, the Heritage Foundation rec- ture. After an interview with the BBC at the ommends that the Trump administration end of January 2017, he ruffled feathers in should re-examine its support for this su- Brussels by comparing the EU to the Soviet pranational organization and instead forge Union, among other things.5 closer relations with individual European governments. The Foundation believes that the National Security Council (NSC) should conduct a study on how the USA can better advance its long-term interests in Europe.8 onald-trump-theresa-may-entire-news- conference-sot. 2 “‘Ich mag Stärke. Ich mag Ordnung’ – spricht exklusiv im Bild-Interview”, Bild- Zeitung, January 15, 2017. http://www.bild.de/bild- taming”. See BBC video: “Donald Trump pick for plus/politik/ausland/donald-trump/das-grosse- EU Ambassador Ted Malloch hints at destruction of bild-interview-49790140 EU”, YouTube. 3 Frances Stead Sellers, David Fahrenthold, “‘Why https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7mxFUa1wzE even let ’em in?’ Understanding Bannon’s w worldview and the policies that follow”, Washing- 6 Gardiner Harris, James Kanter, “Mike Pence, in ton Post, January 31, 2017. Europe, Says Trump Supports Partnership With https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/bannon- E.U.”, New York Times, February 20, 2017 (with explained-his-worldview-well-before-it-became- video of the press statement). official-us-policy/2017/01/31/2f4102ac-e7ca- https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/20/world/euro 11e6-80c2- pe/pence-european-union-trump.html?_r=0 30e57e57e05d_story.html?utm_term=.21938f37b 7 On the links between the Heritage Foundation d51 and the Trump administration, see for instance: 4 Noah Barkin, “Exclusive - White House delivered Dr. Céline-Agathe Caro, “Welche Agenda für die EU-sceptic message before Pence visit: sources”, Trump-Regierung? Erste Projektionen aus den Reuters, February 22, 2017. amerikanischen Think Tanks für die zukünftige http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-europe-trump- Innen- und Außenpolitik der USA”, Think Tank idUKKBN1601D6 Analyse, Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, January 17, 5 “I had in a previous career a diplomatic post 2017, p. 1-2. http://www.kas.de/wf/de/33.47689/ where I helped bring down the Soviet Union. So 8 Ted Bromund PhD, Luke Coffey, Daniel Kochis, maybe there’s another union that needs a little “Recommitting the United States to European Se-

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Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. During a hearing in the House of Represent- governments, which must answer to voters, atives in early February, one of the Herit- maintain their independence and enter into

age directors, Nile Gardiner, described the specific cooperative ventures. According to USA EU as an inward-looking and declining entity the authors, Trump’s preference for the sol- DR. CÉLINE-AGATHE CARO with a protectionist mindset and outright idarity model is a logical consequence of his hostility to economic freedom. He called up- nationalist stance, which stresses the need 12 March 21, 2017 on the representatives to turn away from for democratic legitimacy. the EU and concentrate on expanding bilat- eral relations with the UK.9 www.kas.de/usa Dangerous break with tradition from the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), who for a while had been tapped as Several experts, especially from left-leaning a candidate for a high-ranking position in think tanks, stress that Donald Trump is the the Trump administration, took a similar first US president not to represent the tradi- stance. He also believes that it is a mistake tional, pro-European stance of his predeces- to think that Trump will actively work to dis- sors in the White House. They express con- rupt the EU—the Europeans are quite capa- cern about the fact that Trump appears to 10 ble of doing that themselves. be at best indifferent to the European Un- ion, and has not articulated the traditional The is considered close mantra that a stable and united Europe ad- to the administration because of its strong vances the USA’s economic and security in- relationships with Vice President Mike Pence terests. By contrast, most US and several Republican Members of Con- think tanks agree that the United States gress. Many Hudson experts have also dis- largely benefits from a strong EU.13 played skepticism towards the European project. At the center of their criticism is the According to Hans Kundnani from the Ger- belief that the EU diminishes national identi- man Marshall Fund (GMF), this negative ties. Furthermore, many of them regard the stance towards the EU could hamper coop- EU as an illegitimate authority. Peter Rough, eration with EU institutions. He underlines, for instance, has called on the US govern- however, that tense relations between ment to support the UK in the Brexit pro- Washington and Brussels are not entirely cess, and hopes this development will lead atypical, and this stance may provide active 11 to a “democratic renaissance” in Europe. encouragement to Euroskeptics in the EU.14 In an article he wrote jointly with his col- Trump’s election victory has already put league Michael Doran, he stressed that wind into the sails of some nationalist there are two models of integration for movements in the EU. Some commentators Western cooperation: integration or solidari- view the official visits to Washington by ty. Under the solidarity model, national Brexit campaign leader Nigel Farage, as well as the expansion of Breitbart News15 into different EU countries (incl. Germany and curity and Prosperity: Five Steps for the Incoming France) with Steve Bannon’s blessing as Administration”, Report Europe, The Heritage signs of this indirect support. Foundation, January 12, 2017. http://www.heritage.org/europe/report/recommitt ing-the-united-states-european-security-and- prosperity-five-steps-the 9 Foreign Affairs Committee, Next Steps in the “Special Relationship”: Impact of a U.S.-U.K. Free 12 Michael Doran, Peter Rough (Hudson Institute), Trade Agreement. Dr. Nile Gardiner, Director, “Trump's 'America First' Puts Britain 'at the Front Center for Freedom, The Herit- of the Line'”, Wall Street Journal, January 27, age Foundation. Testimony before House Commit- 2017. https://www.hudson.org/research/13276- tee on Foreign Affairs Joint Subcommittee Hear- trump-s-america-first-puts-britain-at-the-front-of- ing: Subcommittee on Terrorism, Nonproliferation, the-line and Trade; Subcommittee on Europe, Eurasia, and 13 See for instance: Charles Kupchan (Georgetown Emerging Threats, February 1, 2017. University/Council on Foreign Relations), “Trump https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearing/joint- and Merkel Need to Find a Way to Work Togeth- subcommittee-hearing-next-steps-special- er”, Foreign Policy, March 13, 2017. relationship-impact-u-s-u-k-free-trade- https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/03/13/trump-and- agreement/ merkel-need-to-find-a-way-to-work-together/ 10 John R. Bolton (AEI Senior Fellow), “The return 14 Hans Kundnani, “President Trump, the U.S. Se- of the ‘special relationship’ between the US and curity Guarantee, and the Future of European In- UK”, The Boston Globe, January 30, 2017. tegration”, Policy Brief, German Marshall Fund, http://www.aei.org/publication/the-return-of-the- January 17, 2017. special-relationship-between-the-us-and- http://www.gmfus.org/publications/president- uk/?utm_source=&utm_medium=social&ut trump-us-security-guarantee-and-future- m_campaign=boltonukusrelationship european-integration 11 Peter Rough, “Engaging Europe: A Strategy for 15 Breitbart News is a US news website that is the President-elect”, Hudson Institute, January 18, highly controversial due to its right-wing populist 2017. https://hudson.org/research/13246- contents. Steve Bannon, the US President’s Chief engaging-europe-a-strategy-for-the-president- Strategist, used to be Editor in Chief of this web- elect site.

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Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. In this context, James Kirchick, Fellow at Concluding a free trade deal quickly with the think tank Foreign Policy Initiative, the UK will be one of the US President’s pri-

believes that “with the Bundestag elections orities. USA coming up in the fall, [Merkel should] not DR. CÉLINE-AGATHE CARO only worry about Russian, but also about US At the Conservative Political Action Confer- 16 interference attempts”. Harold James, Pro- ence (CPAC) on February 23, 2017, Steve March 21, 2017 fessor at Princeton University, has a simi- Bannon laid out the fundamental principles lar view. He believes that the US criticism of upon which decisions on global trade issues the German trade surplus is influencing www.kas.de/usa will be made: “economic nationalism” (im- German domestic policy and encouraging plying protectionist measures) and “sover- Merkel’s critics, which inadvertently aligns eignty” (i.e. the aggressive defense of na- 17 the US government with the opposition. tional interests).21

Trade Relations with Europe “Special relationship”

“” Think tanks are already debating the future free trade agreement between the US and Donald Trump has stressed that he is not the UK. The Heritage Foundation has ad- against free trade per se, as long as it is vocated that London should be at the front “fair”.18 He believes that unfair international of the queue (referring to ’s trade agreements have caused a significant “back of the queue” comment) for negotia- trade deficit in the USA. He therefore has tions with Washington. Both partners should stated his intention to introduce protection- strive to agree upon the best possible deal ist measures for the benefit of US workers. quickly, even if it is not perfect. To this end, the think tank recommends that they should Trump sees trade distortions above all in focus on the following points: eliminating relation to China, but also Europe, and in tariffs and quotas on visible trade, ensuring particular Germany. According to a state- the continuation of the freedom of invest- ment Trump made in mid-January 2017, the ment, and developing a system of mutual EU is a simple “means to an end for Germa- recognition for standards in a few high- ny”, and was founded in part for the pur- value areas. According to the Heritage pose of “beating the U.S. in international Foundation, such a deal would be good for trade”.19 At the end of January, Peter Na- both nations, and would set a valuable ex- varro, head of the newly formed National ample of liberalization for the rest of the 22 Trade Council, declared the Transatlantic world. John Bolton (AEI) also hopes for an Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) to early deal with the UK, which Canada could be dead, and indicated that the new admin- join, with other non-EU nations in Europe 23 istration would focus on bilateral deals.20 coming on board in due course.

At his congressional hearing on February 1, Nile Gardiner (Heritage Foundation) fur- 16 James Kirchick, “Die Welt unter Trump - Merkel ther stated that such a trading area would gegen Bannon”, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, symbolize and foster the UK-US opposition February 22, 2017. to supranational control and express the http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/trumps- praesidentschaft/die-welt-unter-trump-merkel- common conviction that government must gegen-bannon- be based on sovereignty and freedom. He 14888334.html?printPagedArticle=true#pageInde believes that the deal should be implement- x_2 17 Prof. Harold James, “Trump’s Currency War ed within 90 days from the UK leaving the Against Germany Could Destroy the EU”, Foreign EU, i.e. during the first 6 months of 2019.24 Policy, February 2, 2017. http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/02/02/trumps- currency-war-against-germany-could-destroy-the- european-union/ 18 CNN, “Donald Trump's Congress speech (full text)”. http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/28/politics/donald- trump-speech-transcript-full-text/ See also: ARD, 21 For an explanation of these terms, see for in- “Trump und Merkel vor den Medien. Die Presse- stance the analyses by Prof. Daniel Kreiss (Univer- konferenz im Video”, Mach 17, 2017. sity of North Carolina) in: Max Fisher, “Stephen K. https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/trump- Bannon’s CPAC Comments, Annotated and Ex- merkel-pressekonferenz-101.html plained”, New York Times, February 24, 2017. 19 Bild interview with Donald Trump, see note 2. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/24/us/politics/ 20 Shawn Donnan, “Trump’s top trade adviser ac- stephen-bannon-cpac-speech.html cuses Germany of currency exploitation”, Financial 22 Heritage Foundation, see note 8. Times, January 31, 2017. 23 John R. Bolton, see note 10. https://www.ft.com/content/57f104d2-e742- 24 Dr. Nile Gardiner, Testimony before House 11e6-893c-082c54a7f539 Committee, see note 9.

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Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. For Peter Rough (Hudson Institute), a even though there are several free trade free trade agreement between the US and deal supporters in the Trump cabinet, it will

the UK would cement the UK’s foothold in more likely be ministers and advisors shar- USA North America and prove Trump’s commit- ing the President’s positions who will devel- DR. CÉLINE-AGATHE CARO ment to fair trade. In addition, it would not op the government’s future trade policies: only strengthen the “special relationship” (Commerce Secretary), Robert March 21, 2017 between the two countries, but also moti- Lighthizer (United States Trade Representa- vate the EU to conclude an agreement with tive nominee), and Peter Navarro. Regard- London so as not to lose any market shares ing the proposed border tax adjustments29, www.kas.de/usa in key sectors.25 Sparding and Liesenhoff argue that they might be incompatible with WTO rules and

TTIP is not an option for Gardiner. He sees would not improve the country’s competi- the project as “hugely flawed”, partly be- tiveness. They believe that the Trump ad- cause it would entail the importing of regu- ministration’s new economic policies of lations and the expansion of “big govern- higher government spending and tax reduc- ment”. His Heritage colleague Ted tions could stimulate demand in the US, re- Bromund has also declared TTIP’s untimely sulting in increased imports from Europe. demise.26 Irvin Stelzer from the Hudson However, they also argue that the disad- Institute believes that the Transatlantic vantages of such US policies would out- Trade and Investment Partnership has little weigh the benefits for Europe in the long chance of surviving in the present climate: run if the US decisions were to damage the “Our negotiator-in-chief wants to practice multilateral system of the WTO, cause the art of the deal one-on-one”.27 transatlantic disputes, or split the Europe- ans.30 Most important trading partner When speaking about the trade deal be- With respect to Trump’s commitment to fair tween the USA and the UK during a con- trade, US economists frequently mention gressional hearing on February 1, 2017, that global trade as such is not responsible Simon Lester from the ar- for job losses in the US, but that new tech- gued that London would not be able to work nologies, the modernization of production on a deal with the USA without taking the facilities, and a deficit in training among EU’s interests into account. In his view, it workers are to blame. Protectionist would be better for the American side to measures and efforts to bring manufactur- wait until the agreement between the EU ing back to the US would therefore have and the UK is finalized to then negotiate a little chance of improving life for the work- deal with London since the nature of future ing class in the USA.28 One outstanding economic relations between the United question is whether the risk of trade wars Kingdom and the EU would have conse- could potentially stop the US government quences for US products. Following libertar- from pursuing aggressive foreign trade poli- ian tradition, he recommended a “narrow” cies, for example towards the EU. deal between the USA and the UK that does not regulate all areas of cooperation, partly to avoid conflicting with WTO rules.31 Peter Sparding and Philipp Liesenhoff from the German Marshall Fund comment that During the same congressional hearing on February 1, Dan Hamilton (Johns Hopkins University SAIS) agreed with Simon 25 Peter Rough, see note 11. 26 Theodore Bromund, Senior Research Fellow, Heritage Foundation. Contribution to a discussion held on March 1, 2017 during a conference on: “The future of the European security order”, 29 On the proposed “Border Tax Adjustment . plans”, see Gary Clyde Huffbauer, Zhiyao Lu, https://www.brookings.edu/events/the-future-of- “Border Tax Adjustments: Assessing Risks and the-european-security-order/ Rewards”, Policy Brief, Peterson Institute for In- 27 Irwin M. Stelzer (Senior Fellow, Hudson Insti- ternational , January 2017. tute), “Getting a Feel for Trump's Trade Game”, https://piie.com/publications/policy-briefs/border- Weekly Standard Online, February 18, 2017. tax-adjustments-assessing-risks-and-rewards https://hudson.org/research/13374-getting-a- 30 Peter Sparding, Philipp Liesenhoff, “What Amer- feel-for-trump-s-trade-game ica’s Economy First Means for Europe”, Policy 28 See for instance the analyses by Martin Baily Brief, German Marshall Fund, February 15, 2017. (Brookings) in: Jeff Guo, “Why the White House http://www.gmfus.org/publications/what- seems a little jealous of Germany”, Washington america%E2%80%99s-economy-first-means- Post, February 2, 2017. europe https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/ 31 Simon Lester, Trade Policy Analyst, Herbert A. 2017/02/02/how-germany-was-able-to-win- Stiefel Center for Trade Policy Studies, Cato Insti- globalization-but-the-united-states-was- tute. Testimony before House Committee, see not/?utm_term=.2853b0c31a6d note 9.

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Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. Lester pertaining to the sequence of the Common Security Interests deals. They both believe that the US should

wait for the trade agreement between the It’s all good, isn’t it? USA EU and the UK before concluding a deal with DR. CÉLINE-AGATHE CARO London. Hamilton produced further argu- Donald Trump’s statements on NATO have

ments to dampen the expectations of the caused a great deal of anxiety in the US and March 21, 2017 US representatives with respect to an early in Europe. After his interview with the Bild free trade agreement between the US and newspaper on January 15, most commenta- the UK. For instance, he does not expect a www.kas.de/usa tors focused on his remark that the transat- deal between London and the EU to be lantic alliance was “obsolete”. During his signed before 2025, which would push a first speech to Congress on February 28, subsequent deal between Washington and 2017, the US President made his first clear London far into the future. Hamilton under- statement on the transatlantic alliance: “We scored the fact that the EU (even with 27 strongly support NATO, an alliance forged members) would still be the most important through the bonds of two World Wars that trading partner for both the US and the UK, dethroned fascism, and a Cold War that de- and that both London and Washington feated communism”.35 would benefit more from a strong agree- ment with the EU. He also pointed out that Trump’s criticism of NATO pertains first and the UK was a strategic gateway to the Eu- foremost to the fact that most of the Euro- ropean Single Market for US companies and pean states are not complying with the banks. Hamilton therefore proposed to inte- NATO obligation to spend at least two per- grate the deal between the US and the UK cent of their GDP on defense. Speaking in into a wider trilateral “North Atlantic Initia- Brussels in February, Secretary of Defense tive for Jobs and Growth”, in which all three Jim Mattis called upon his European col- sides of the triangle (USA, UK, EU) would leagues to meet the two percent target, or strengthen each other. To this end, the US risk the US scaling back its defense en- should continue in its efforts to reach an gagements in Europe. He requested that all agreement with the EU in parallel with the countries put forward plans to increase discussions with the UK.32 spending by the end of the year.

In agreement with Peter Sparding and Tense situation Philipp Liesenhoff (GMF), Hamilton also be- lieves that it is not very likely that TTIP will be signed any time soon. But the negotia- There is a broad consensus among US think tanks about the fact that NATO and the tions between the US and the EU could be continued under the auspices of the Trans- transatlantic partnership remain crucial to US security and to the defense of American atlantic Economic Council. Together with his SAIS colleague Niklas Helwig, he also advo- interests, particularly considering Russia’s cates US-EU deals in individual business aggressive foreign policy. Many observers, such as Mark Cancian from the Center for sectors to enhance the competitiveness of European and American companies in the Strategic and International Studies 33 (CSIS), emphasize that the new Secretary face of China’s foreign trade policy. Da- libor Rohac (AEI), for his part, advocates of Defense General Mattis is a firm support- 36 making TTIP a priority again in 2017. Creat- er of the transatlantic alliance. Several ex- ing an integrated Atlantic marketplace could perts (including Peter Rough from the Hud- potentially help the Eurozone to overcome son Institute, Damon Wilson from the At- lantic Council, and Harvard Professor its crisis, which would be in the USA’s inter- 37 est.34 Nicholas Burns) had called for a clear

2017. http://www.aei.org/publication/what-to-do- 2017-europe/ 32 Dr. Daniel S. Hamilton, Austrian Marshall Plan 35 CNN, “Donald Trump's Congress speech”, see Foundation Professor, Executive Director, Center note 18. for Transatlantic Relations, Johns Hopkins Univer- 36 See Mark Cancian’s (CSIS) analyses in: Aaron sity SAIS. Testimony before House Committee, Mehta, “With allies seeking reassurance, Mattis see note 9. heads to NATO”, Defense News, February 13, 33 Daniel Hamilton, Niklas Helwig, “Trump Faces 2017. http://www.defensenews.com/articles/with- Merkel’s Art Of The Deal”, The Huffington Post, allies-seeking-reassurance-mattis-heads-to-nato March 12, 2017. 37 Peter Rough, see note 11; Atlantic Council, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump- “Trump’s Victory is Brexit Gone Global. Interview faces-merkels-art-of-the- with Atlantic Council Executive Vice President Da- deal_us_58c2c22ee4b0a797c1d39bae? mon Wilson”, November 10, 2016. 34 Dalibor Rohac, “What to do 2017: Europe”, AE- http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new- Ideas, American Enterprise Institute, March 3, atlanticist/trump-s-victory-is-brexit-gone-global.

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Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. statement from Trump after the US elec- Sokolsky (Carnegie) emphasizes, however, tion, which he delivered in Congress on Feb- that the Trump administration has vastly

ruary 28. Prior to that date, those in the underestimated Europe’s past contributions USA Washington security community who were to NATO.41 DR. CÉLINE-AGATHE CARO happy with the administration’s reassuranc- es, such as Kurt Volker (McCain Institute) Like several CSIS and Brookings experts, 38 March 21, 2017 and Strobe Talbott (Brookings) , were he stresses that the two percent target does clearly in the minority. It now remains to be not guarantee that the NATO members will seen whether Trump’s speech to Congress www.kas.de/usa have an effective military structure in the will over time convince the others. Several future (“output guarantee”). Anthony experts, for instance at the Center for a Cordesman (CSIS) believes that the US

New American Security (CNAS), CSIS, government should therefore stop putting Brookings, and Council, are pressure on its European partners to drasti- still drawing attention to the fact that Steve cally increase their defense budgets as this Bannon and other Trump advisors are out- is not realistic and serves no clear strategic spoken NATO skeptics, and that it is too goal. However spurious the two percent tar- early to know which camp in the Trump get may be, Constanze Stelzenmüller and 39 White House will prevail on this issue. Bruce Jones (Brookings) think that it will remain the benchmark against which the US Be that as it may, all the experts (CSIS, government will measure Europe’s good- Brookings, etc.) agree that the Europeans will.42 will have to do more for their own defense 40 in future, both financially and strategically. The great majority of experts are not opti- The new NATO policy pursued by the US mistic about the two percent target being government could therefore provide the Eu- achieved, which is definitely not going to ropeans with a good opportunity to take on help improve the mood in the transatlantic a greater leadership role within the alliance. relationship. However, Christopher Chivvis The irony has not gone unnoticed among from the RAND Corporation advises the experts that President Obama, despite his Europeans against turning inward and away popularity in the EU, was unable to convince from their traditional partner, despite the his European partners to increase their de- current confusion in the USA.43 Ted fense spending, while an unpopular presi- Bromund (Heritage Foundation) notes dent spouting threats has succeeded in fo- that critical voices and threats among NATO cusing their attention on the issue. Richard partners are generally not helpful.44

Not all American NATO experts are con- vinced that Trump’s desire for NATO to re- For Prof. Burns, see: Steven Erlanger, “A Worried focus its priorities, especially on the fight Europe Finds Scant Reassurance on Trump’s Plans”, New York Times, February 19, 2017. against terrorism, is a realistic approach. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/19/world/a- According to Bruce Jones (Brookings), the worried-europe-finds-scant-reassurance-on- alliance is not equipped to fight against trumps-plans.html?_r=0 38 Kurt Volker, Executive Director, The McCain In- stitute for International Leadership. Contribution to discussion taking place on March 1, 2017 at Brookings, see note 26; for Strobe Talbott (Brook- 41 Richard Sokolsky, Gordon Adams, “Penny Wise, ings Director), see: Steven Erlanger, Alison Pound Foolish: Trump’s Misguided Views of Euro- Smale, “In Munich, Pence Says U.S. Commitment pean Defense Spending”, War on the Rocks, March to NATO Is ‘Unwavering’”, New York Times, Feb- 7, 2017. ruary 18, 2017. http://carnegieendowment.org/2017/03/07/penny https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/18/world/euro -wise-pound-foolish-trump-s-misguided-views-of- pe/pence-munich-speech-nato-merkel.html european-defense-spending-pub-68202 39 See for instance: Julianne Smith, Senior Fellow 42 Constanze Stelzenmüller, “Munich: A watershed and Director, Strategy and Statecraft Program, moment for Europe”, Brookings Institution, Febru- Center for a New American Security. Contribution ary 23, 2017. to discussion taking place on March 1, 2017 at https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from- Brookings, see note 26; Jeffrey Rathke, “Chancel- chaos/2017/02/23/munich-a-watershed-moment- lor Merkel Comes to Washington as Germany Nav- for-europe/; Bruce Jones, “Two cents on the 2 igates its Relationship with the Trump Administra- percent question. A dispatch from the Munich Se- tion”, CSIS, March 13, 2017. curity Conference”, Brookings Institution, Febru- https://www.csis.org/analysis/chancellor-merkel- ary 21, 2017. comes-washington-germany-navigates-its- https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from- relationship-trump-administration chaos/2017/02/21/two-cents-on-the-2-percent- 40 See for instance: Anthony Cordesman, “NATO question/; for A. Cordesman, see note 40. and the Delicate Balance of Deterrence: Strategy 43 Christopher Chivvis, Associate Director, Interna- versus Burden Sharing”, Center for Strategic and tional Security and Defense Policy Center, RAND International Studies, February 7, 2017. Corporation. Contribution to discussion taking https://www.csis.org/analysis/nato-and-delicate- place on March 1, 2017 at Brookings, see note 26. balance-deterrence-strategy-versus-burden- 44 Contribution to discussion taking place on March sharing 1, 2017 at Brookings, see note 26.

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Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. “” from Russia, refugee crises, or of classic Republicans and supporters of the domestic radicalization in Europe.45 In his transatlantic partnership such as Mike Pence

view, it is predominantly an instrument for and Jim Mattis are frequently out of sync USA territorial defense. The Heritage Founda- with statements made by Steve Bannon and DR. CÉLINE-AGATHE CARO tion concurs, and has recommended that other advisors to the US president, like Ste- NATO should concentrate on constraining phen Miller and , who at March 21, 2017 Russia, and the US on expanding its military least until now appear to have more direct presence in Europe. To work towards the access to the . For US think strongest possible alliance, Heritage has ad- tanks it remains to be seen which camp will www.kas.de/usa vised the US government to stop supporting prevail where transatlantic issues are con- further EU integration in the area of securi- cerned.

ty.46 In Anthony Cordesman’s opinion (CSIS), the alliance should both strengthen Given these circumstances, the Europeans its deterrence vis-à-vis Russia, and improve would be well-advised to seek dialogue with its limited capabilities in dealing with violent Washington. They should use this time of 47 Islamist extremism and terrorism. uncertainty to let Washington know Eu- rope’s wishes and visions in the areas of Ultimately, the Trump administration’s ex- foreign policy, security, and trade. After all, pectations of NATO might also have direct it is also in the EU’s interest to have a hand consequences for the future of the EU. in shaping the future of the transatlantic Compared to the clear conditions set forth partnership. In addressing the current state for US engagement in Europe, the Trump of transatlantic relations, think tank experts cabinet has created some uncertainty re- have made it clear that to be heard in the garding Article 5, NATO members’ commit- US, Europeans should speak with one voice. ment to mutual defense. If the Europeans do not succeed in developing a defense un- The statements made by President Trump ion of their own, this lack of certainty may during the Chancellor’s visit have confirmed exacerbate European tensions, argues Hans the compelling need for European decision- Kundnani (GMF). It could shift the balance makers to actively promote the EU. As An- of power in Europe between Germany as an gela Merkel did, representatives from EU economic power and France and the UK as states should always make a point of bring- nuclear powers, among other things. This ing up the EU in their talks with Washing- could potentially affect current crisis man- ton, and not restrict themselves to national agement in the Eurozone as well as the topics. This is all the more important as the 48 Brexit negotiations. US administration currently appears to be keeping all options on the table, to poten- Conclusion tially take advantage of tensions with Ger- many or the EU over trade and security is- The new US government’s policy toward Eu- sues. rope is not yet clearly defined. It will be Washington’s concrete decisions over the Current developments in the US are a fur- next few months, rather than its recent, ther reason for the EU member states to partly conflicting messages, that will deter- pull together and strengthen the European mine the future relationship of the transat- project. They might also want to respond to lantic partners. How the US government will Kissinger’s request and provide Washington position itself at the impending NATO, G7, with a phone number for Europe. and G20 summits also remains to be seen. Right-leaning think tanks tend to support Trump’s EU-skeptic and bilateral approach, particularly regarding trade, while US ex- perts are in general agreement about the relevance of the transatlantic alliance.

Currently, the US government seems to

comprise two very different camps that ex- ist in a kind of “cohabitation” or form a

“grand coalition”. The foreign policy stances

45 Bruce Jones, see note 42. 46 Heritage Foundation, see note 8. 47 Anthony Cordesman, see note 40. 48 Hans Kundnani, see note 14.

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Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. Recommended reading

Heritage Foundation USA DR. CÉLINE-AGATHE CARO “Recommitting the United States to Eu- ropean Security and Prosperity: Five

Steps for the Incoming Administration” March 21, 2017 Report Europe by Ted Bromund PhD, Luke Coffey, and Daniel Kochis www.kas.de/usa January 12, 2017

http://www.heritage.org/europe/report/reco mmitting-the-united-states-european- security-and-prosperity-five-steps-the

Johns Hopkins University SAIS Foreign Affairs Committee, Next Steps in the “Special Relationship”: Impact of a U.S.-U.K. Free Trade Agreement.

Testimony before House Committee on For- eign Affairs Joint Subcommittee Hearing: Subcommittee on Terrorism, Nonprolifera- tion, and Trade; Subcommittee on Europe, Eurasia, and Emerging Threats.

By Dr. Daniel S. Hamilton, Austrian Marshall

Plan Foundation Professor, Executive Direc- tor, Center for Transatlantic Relations. February 1, 2017. http://docs.house.gov/meetings/FA/FA18/2 0170201/105501/HMTG-115-FA18-Wstate- HamiltonPhDD-20170201.pdf

Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) “NATO and the Delicate Balance of De- terrence: Strategy versus Burden Shar- ing”

Report by Anthony Cordesman

February 7, 2017

https://www.csis.org/analysis/nato-and- delicate-balance-deterrence-strategy- versus-burden-sharing

About the author:

Dr. Céline-Agathe Caro is a Senior Policy

Analyst at the Washington D.C. office of the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung. [email protected] / @CelineACaro

Photo credit for title page Jay Allen/ Crown Copyright/ Flickr/ CC BY-NC-ND 2.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/b y-nc-nd/2.0/