THINK TANK ANALYSIS Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. USA DR. CÉLINE-AGATHE CARO Would Trump prefer 28 phone numbers? March 21, 2017 AN ASSESSMENT OF THE US ADMINISTRATION’S POLICY ON EUROPE BY www.kas.de/usa LEADING AMERICAN THINK TANKS Henry Kissinger’s famous question Perception of the EU about whom to call when one wants to speak to Europe arose a time when the “Consortium” US considered dialogue with the Euro- peans to be vital, particularly in ques- During the election campaign and into the tions of foreign affairs and security. beginning of his tenure, there were several Having launched his presidency under occasions when President Trump voiced crit- the motto “America First”, Donald icism of the European Union. This may be Trump has sown uncertainty as to the due in part to a general mistrust of multilat- future of the transatlantic partnership. eral organizations. Consequently, he sees the EU mainly as an ineffectual bureaucratic How does the new US administration structure—incapable of creating jobs and fgf perceive the EU? How does it envisage growth in Europe—which makes life difficult its relations with Europe in the key ar- for entrepreneurs like himself because of its eas of trade and security? Which poli- tendency towards overregulation. During a cies are think tanks close to the gov- press conference with the British Prime Min- ernment recommending, and what do ister Theresa May on January 27, 2017, he other political experts think about the referred to the EU member states as a future of the Trump administration’s “consortium”.1 policy towards Europe? This analysis attempts to provide possible answers to these questions. 1 CNN, “Entire Trump-British PM News Confer- ence”, January 27, 2017. http://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2017/01/27/d 2 Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. Trump also seems to consider the EU a su- The only person in the White House who pranational body that seeks to homogenize appears to have a positive attitude towards its individual member states by restricting the EU is Vice President Mike Pence, who USA their sovereignty, particularly on immigra- reaffirmed the traditional US position to- DR. CÉLINE-AGATHE CARO tion. Due to this belief, he has stated that wards Europe on February 20, 2017 in Brexit will prove to be a “great thing”, and Brussels. During a press conference with EU March 21, 2017 that further member states will leave the EU Council President Donald Tusk, he said that because “people, countries want their own President Trump had asked him “to express identity”.2 the strong commitment of the United States www.kas.de/usa to continued co-operation and partnership For Steve Bannon, Trump’s top advisor and with the European Union”. He went on to chief political strategist in the White House, say: “Whatever our differences, our two there is no desirable alternative to national continents share the same heritage, the sovereignty, in the United States or for the same values and above all the same pur- USA’s traditional Western European allies. pose, to promote peace and prosperity He also supports Brexit as a way for the through freedom, democracy and the rule of 6 British to regain their sovereignty, and en- law”. courages similar movements in other EU countries. As far back as 2014, he made Integration vs. solidarity positive statements about nationalist movements in Europe during a conference The Heritage Foundation shares President 3 in the Vatican. According to Reuters, Ban- Trump’s negative stance towards the EU.7 non told the German ambassador to the In a report published on January 12, 2017, United States, Dr. Peter Wittig, in mid- it argued that European integration is caus- February 2017 that he considered the EU a ing increasing restrictions of political free- “flawed construct”, and preferred bilateral dom, greater economic tensions, and a dim- ties with European countries. After the inution of the transatlantic partnership in meeting, a Reuters source confirmed that the area of security. According to the au- the Europeans had better prepare for a poli- thors, this is due to the fact that the EU in- 4 cy of “hostility towards the EU”. terferes with national sovereignty, prevents the establishment of genuine transatlantic Businessman Ted Malloch, the US govern- free trade areas, is damaging to transatlan- ment’s pick for ambassador to the EU, is tic security, distorts European immigration also a Brexit supporter, who believes that policy, and wastes taxpayers’ money. Con- the euro will fail in the not too distant fu- sequently, the Heritage Foundation rec- ture. After an interview with the BBC at the ommends that the Trump administration end of January 2017, he ruffled feathers in should re-examine its support for this su- Brussels by comparing the EU to the Soviet pranational organization and instead forge Union, among other things.5 closer relations with individual European governments. The Foundation believes that the National Security Council (NSC) should conduct a study on how the USA can better advance its long-term interests in Europe.8 onald-trump-theresa-may-entire-news- conference-sot.cnn 2 “‘Ich mag Stärke. Ich mag Ordnung’ – Donald Trump spricht exklusiv im Bild-Interview”, Bild- Zeitung, January 15, 2017. http://www.bild.de/bild- taming”. See BBC video: “Donald Trump pick for plus/politik/ausland/donald-trump/das-grosse- EU Ambassador Ted Malloch hints at destruction of bild-interview-49790140 EU”, YouTube. 3 Frances Stead Sellers, David Fahrenthold, “‘Why https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7mxFUa1wzE even let ’em in?’ Understanding Bannon’s w worldview and the policies that follow”, Washing- 6 Gardiner Harris, James Kanter, “Mike Pence, in ton Post, January 31, 2017. Europe, Says Trump Supports Partnership With https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/bannon- E.U.”, New York Times, February 20, 2017 (with explained-his-worldview-well-before-it-became- video of the press statement). official-us-policy/2017/01/31/2f4102ac-e7ca- https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/20/world/euro 11e6-80c2- pe/pence-european-union-trump.html?_r=0 30e57e57e05d_story.html?utm_term=.21938f37b 7 On the links between the Heritage Foundation d51 and the Trump administration, see for instance: 4 Noah Barkin, “Exclusive - White House delivered Dr. Céline-Agathe Caro, “Welche Agenda für die EU-sceptic message before Pence visit: sources”, Trump-Regierung? Erste Projektionen aus den Reuters, February 22, 2017. amerikanischen Think Tanks für die zukünftige http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-europe-trump- Innen- und Außenpolitik der USA”, Think Tank idUKKBN1601D6 Analyse, Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, January 17, 5 “I had in a previous career a diplomatic post 2017, p. 1-2. http://www.kas.de/wf/de/33.47689/ where I helped bring down the Soviet Union. So 8 Ted Bromund PhD, Luke Coffey, Daniel Kochis, maybe there’s another union that needs a little “Recommitting the United States to European Se- 3 Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. During a hearing in the House of Represent- governments, which must answer to voters, atives in early February, one of the Herit- maintain their independence and enter into age directors, Nile Gardiner, described the specific cooperative ventures. According to USA EU as an inward-looking and declining entity the authors, Trump’s preference for the sol- DR. CÉLINE-AGATHE CARO with a protectionist mindset and outright idarity model is a logical consequence of his hostility to economic freedom. He called up- nationalist stance, which stresses the need 12 March 21, 2017 on the representatives to turn away from for democratic legitimacy. the EU and concentrate on expanding bilat- eral relations with the UK.9 John Bolton www.kas.de/usa Dangerous break with tradition from the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), who for a while had been tapped as Several experts, especially from left-leaning a candidate for a high-ranking position in think tanks, stress that Donald Trump is the the Trump administration, took a similar first US president not to represent the tradi- stance. He also believes that it is a mistake tional, pro-European stance of his predeces- to think that Trump will actively work to dis- sors in the White House. They express con- rupt the EU—the Europeans are quite capa- cern about the fact that Trump appears to 10 ble of doing that themselves. be at best indifferent to the European Un- ion, and has not articulated the traditional The Hudson Institute is considered close mantra that a stable and united Europe ad- to the administration because of its strong vances the USA’s economic and security in- relationships with Vice President Mike Pence terests. By contrast, most US foreign policy and several Republican Members of Con- think tanks agree that the United States gress. Many Hudson experts have also dis- largely benefits from a strong EU.13 played skepticism towards the European project. At the center of their criticism is the According to Hans Kundnani from the Ger- belief that the EU diminishes national identi- man Marshall Fund (GMF), this negative ties. Furthermore, many of them regard the stance towards the EU could hamper coop- EU as an illegitimate authority. Peter Rough, eration with EU institutions. He underlines, for instance, has called on the US govern- however, that tense relations between ment to support the UK in the Brexit pro- Washington and Brussels are not entirely cess, and hopes this development will lead atypical, and this stance may provide active 11 to a “democratic renaissance” in Europe. encouragement to Euroskeptics in the EU.14 In an article he wrote jointly with his col- Trump’s election victory has already put league Michael Doran, he stressed that wind into the sails of some nationalist there are two models of integration for movements in the EU.