Monthly Forecast

November 2019 Monthly Forecast 1 Overview Overview 2 In Hindsight: Missing Monthly Assessments of Council Presidencies The UK has the presidency in November. It has Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed 3 Status Updates since chosen to hold an open debate on reconcilia- will brief Council members on her recent visit to our October Forecast tion which appears to be a follow-up to an open the Horn of Africa focused on women, peace and 5 Syria debate held during its last presidency in August security. A representative from the AU is also 2018, on mediation, in which reconciliation fea- expected to brief. 7 Libya tured in the discussion. Other Africa issues include: 8 Bosnia and There will be the regular briefings and consul- • Central African Republic, renewal of MINUS- Herzegovina tations on the Syria political and humanitarian CA’s mandate; 9 UN Peacekeeping situation. The OPCW will brief the Council in a • Democratic Republic of the Congo, consulta- 11 Somalia private meeting on the use of chemical weapons tions on the strategic review of MONUSCO; 12 DPRK (North Korea) in the country. • Sahel, a briefing on the Joint Force of the Other meetings on the Middle East include: Group of Five for the Sahel; and 14 Sudan/South Sudan • Iraq, briefing and consultations on UNITAD; • Sudan/South Sudan, the renewal of UNISFA 15 Central African • Israel/Palestine, the monthly briefing and in Abyei. Republic consultations; On Europe, the Council will hold its semi- 16 Reconciliation • Lebanon, consultations on resolution 1701; annual debate on Bosnia and Herzegovina and 17 Group of Five for the • Libya, briefing on the ICC by the Prosecutor will need to renew the authorisation of the EU-led Sahel and briefing and consultations on UNSMIL; multinational stabilisation force. There will also 19 Lebanon and be consultations on UNFICYP in Cyprus. 20 Yemen • Yemen, the monthly briefing, followed by con- Regarding the Democratic People’s Republic sultations, on implementation of resolutions of Korea (DPRK), the chair of the 1718 DPRK 22 Cyprus 2451 and 2452. Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Christoph 23 Iraq Several meetings on Somalia are expected. The Heusgen (Germany), will brief in consultations. Council is scheduled to adopt a resolution on the The sixth annual briefing with heads ofpolice Somalia sanctions regime, addressing the partial components of peacekeeping operations will be lifting of the arms embargo on Somali security held in early November. forces, the authorisation for maritime interdiction The 15 current Council members and the to enforce the embargo on illicit arms imports and incoming five (Estonia, Niger, Saint Vincent and charcoal exports, and humanitarian exemptions the Grenadines, Tunisia, and Vietnam) will par- to the sanctions regime, all of which expire on 15 ticipate in the annual “Hitting the Ground Run- November. It is also expected to adopt a resolu- ning” workshop organised by Finland. tion renewing the mandate of the 751 Somalia Several Arria-formula meetings are anticipat- Sanctions Committee Panel of Experts, which ed, including on radicalisation in prisons, children expires on 15 December. A briefing, followed by and armed conflict and reintegration, environ- consultations, on UNSOM is anticipated. ment and security, and human rights defenders. 30 October 2019 This report is available online at securitycouncilreport.org. For daily insights by SCR on evolving Security Council actions please subscribe to our “What’s In Blue” series at whatsinblue.org or follow @SCRtweets on Twitter. Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2019 securitycouncilreport.org 1 In Hindsight: Missing Monthly Assessments of Council Presidencies In 1997, Security Council members came up of Equitable Representation on and Increase decade or so, these formulations have disap- with the idea of producing monthly assess- in the Membership of the Security Council peared almost completely from the cover note, ments of their own Council presidencies as and also requested that the assessment be cir- reflecting a seeming shift in practice towards one means of introducing a more analytical culated as both a Council and an Assembly greater consultation among Council mem- component into the Council’s annual report document. This seemed to signal that some bers on draft assessments. to the General Assembly. With two excep- members saw the assessment as a transpar- The monthly assessments continued to be tions (in 1999 and 2014), all presidencies ency tool, affording the general membership issued by all but one presidency through May produced their respective assessments from a window into the Council’s functioning. 2015. Starting in 2016, published assessments July 1997 until May 2015. More recently, In the absence of any guidance on their dropped significantly. Only three assessments fewer than half of the Council members have format, the assessments differed in length, were published for that year, followed by five submitted monthly assessments, and most level of detail and analytical content. All tend- for 2017 and six for 2018, with only one at with considerable delay, in one case of more ed, however, to contain useful information press time for 2019. The time lapse between than two years. Meanwhile, the weak analyti- about aspects of Council work missing from the end of a presidency and the publication cal content of the Council’s annual report has official Council documents, such as Arria- of the assessment also increased consider- remained among the chief concerns voiced formula meetings or the horizon-scanning ably, ranging from two months to in some by UN member states. (See In Hindsight, briefings provided in consultations by the cases a year or more. Early on, assessments March 2019 Forecast.) Secretariat from 2010 through 2013. had come out quite quickly, sometimes dur- A note by the president from 1997, out- In the following two years, more assess- ing the month following the presidency and lining a new structure for the annual report, ments were issued as separate documents almost never taking more than a few months. specified that it would include, as an adden- (though with the exception of Canada’s for The diminished number of assessments dum, “brief assessments on the work of the April 2000, no longer as General Assembly may have to do with a heightened divisive- Security Council, which representatives who documents), and by 2001 all but one were ness within the Council overall having con- have completed their functions as President circulated as free-standing documents. They tributed to a more contentious consultative of the Security Council may wish to prepare, were usually sent to the president of the Secu- process. This would explain the long time under their own responsibility and following rity Council, accompanied by a cover letter lapses between a presidency and the publica- consultations with members of the Council stating that while the author had consulted tion of the respective assessment. It appears for the month during which they presided and other Council members, the assessment that, on some occasions, members have cho- which should not be considered as represent- should not be considered as representing the sen not to publish, rather than compromising ing the views of the Council” (S/1997/451). views of the Council. the text. In some recent cases, elected mem- As this language makes clear, monthly A note by the president of the Council bers may not even have been aware that they assessments were never mandatory. But issued on 22 May 2002 introduced several were expected to produce an assessment. In starting with Sweden’s July 1997 presiden- changes to the structure of the annual report. at least one case, the drafter, having received cy, all presidencies prepared their assess- Some changes aimed at reducing its volume, comments from other members, decided to ments, which were published as an appen- which by then had reached almost 600 pages. take on board only some of them and in the dix to the annual report. Some members did For one, the report would no longer repro- cover letter returned to the disclaimer lan- more: Costa Rica issued the assessment of duce the monthly assessments in full, but guage, stating that while other Council mem- its December 1997 presidency as a separate would simply list the assessments “issued bers had been consulted on the assessment, it document as well. In a letter to the Secretary- by the individual monthly Presidencies of should not be considered as representing the General, the country’s Permanent Represen- the Council on its work” (S/2002/199). Also views of the Council. tative asked that the assessment be circulated in 2002, the Council began the practice of During the discussion of the Security as a document of both the General Assembly assigning responsibility to the July presiden- Council’s 2018 annual report by the General and the Security Council, citing the note that cy for drafting an introductory essay for the Assembly on 10 and 12 September, several had established the practice and also under- annual report with some analytical content. speakers noted with concern the decrease lining that “this document has not been Following the 2002 switch to listing mere- in the number of assessments issued and agreed by Council members”. Canada fol- ly the document symbols in the annual report, highlighted their usefulness as a comple- lowed suit with the assessment of its Febru- the individual assessments still included a ment to the introduction to the report. They ary 1999 presidency. The cover letter referred note stating that while Council members expressed the hope that assessments would to the General Assembly’s discussions in the had been consulted, the document repre- again be produced by all members, and in a Open-ended Working Group on the Question sented the views of the presidency. In the past timelier fashion. 2 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2019 Status Update since our October Forecast Counter-Terrorism business” on 3 October to discuss the politi- South Sudan On 1 October, the 1267/1989/2253 Islamic cal unrest in Haiti.

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