Visualization of Roll Call Data for Supporting Analyses of Political Profiles Complementary Material: Case Study

SIBGRAPI paper ID: 76

I.CASE STUDY:PARTY COHESIVENESS OVER TIME (36) To illustrate how CivisAnalysis 2.0 can be used in practice, 1992 was a turbulent year in Brazilian politics, culminating we conducted an informal case study analyzing party cohe- in the of president Collor following a corruption siveness over time. Our analysis covered each presidential term scandal. Vice-president Itamar Franco (PMDB) took over the included in our data and was based on each legislature’s t-SNE presidency amidst an economic crisis (with annual inflation scatterplot visualization and chamber of deputies composition at over 1000%) and built a government based on a broad infographic. The analysis was also complemented by historical coalition. The political and economic turmoil deeply affected information that helps contextualize and understand what is the behavior and voting patterns of the deputies, as can being seen. be clearly seen in CivisAnalysis 2.0 (Figure 2). Although leftwing PDT and PT managed to maintain party unity, centrist A. Collor (PRN) – 1990-1992 PSDB became considerably less cohesive, and the previously Main parties (at least 20 deputies): PFL (76), PL (20), close-knit PMDB and the somewhat cohesive PFL became PTB (27), PDS (46), PP (27), PDC (20), PMDB (104), PSDB completely loose. Also notable were the growth of PSDB, (41), PDT (44), PT (35) which gained 10 seats, and the 1993 incorporation of the The first election after the military period resulted in a very PDS and the PDC into the previously tiny PPR (Progressive fragmented parliament and a president, Fernando Collor de Reformist Party), which grew from 14 to 66 deputies and Mello, from a very minor party, PRN, which had only four behaved in a mostly united way. seats in the chamber of deputies. The two largest parties were C. FHC (PSDB) – 1995-1999 the democratic reinventions of the two parties that existed dur- ing the dictatorship: the rightwing PFL (Liberal Front Party), Main parties (at least 20 deputies): PFL (110), PTB (25), which emerged from the conservative, pro-regime ARENA, PSDB (91), PPB (79), PMDB (86), PDT (24), PT (53) and the PMDB (Brazilian Democratic Movement Party), a The success of Fernando Henrique Cardoso’s (PSDB) term rebranding of opposition party MDB (Democratic Movement as finance minister under president Itamar Franco brought him Party), which served as an umbrella for ideologies covering the to the presidency and restored political and economic order, entire political spectrum. Other sizable parties include right- with most of the major parties’ deputies voting in cohesive leaning ARENA offshoots PDS (Social Democratic Party), PP patterns (Figure 3). The exception to the rule was the PMDB, (Progressive Party), and PDC (Christian Democratic Party), whose deputies divided into smaller clusters. Notable changes the social-liberal PL (Liberal Party), the centrist MDB spin- include the shrinking of the PMDB and the growth of the PFL off PSDB (Party of the Brazilian Social Democracy) as well (which became the largest party in the chamber of deputies), as the centrist PTB (Brazilian Labor Party) and the leftwing the PSDB (which almost doubled in size), and the PT. Also PDT (Democratic Labor Party) and PT (Workers’ Party). notable was the fusion of the PP and the PPR into the PPB In CivisAnalysis 2.0 (Figure 1), we can see that some (Brazilian Progressive Party), which formed a mostly cohesive deputies form well-defined clusters, revealing the cohesiveness bloc of deputies. of their parties in terms of how similarly deputies voted. D. FHC (PSDB) – 1999-2003 From this, we can see that PDT, PSDB, PT, and PMDB were very cohesive in this first legislature of ’s new Main parties (at least 20 deputies): PPB (50), PFL (96), democracy. PFL was slightly less cohesive and most of the PSDB (95), PMDB (86), PTB (35), PL (23), PT (63) other parties were a lot less so while not straying too far from Changes in voting patterns during president Fernando Hen- the PFL’s positions (their deputies are spread over a large area rique Cardoso’s second term were not too drastic (Figure 4). overlapping PFL’s, but they remain far from the other major The PFL and the PSDB behaved almost like a single party, parties). with the latter being more cohesive. The PMDB became more united that it was in the previous term, but many of its deputies B. Itamar (PMDB) – 1992-1995 still did not vote together. Also notable were the continued Main parties (at least 20 deputies): PPR (60), PFL (85), growth of the PT and the considerable decreases in size in PTB (29), PP (46), PMDB (101), PSDB (51), PDT (32), PT both the PPB and the PFL, which lost its place as largest Fig. 1. (PRN) – 1990-1992

Fig. 2. Itamar Franco (PMDB) – 1992-1995

Fig. 3. Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB) – 1995-1999

Fig. 4. Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB) – 1999-2003 party in the chamber of deputies to the PSDB. The PDT also (PT), and the further erosion of the opposition. However, continued on the downward trend that took it from 44 deputies being less skilled as a negotiator than her predecessor and in the Collor government to only 16 in Fernando Henrique’s facing harsher economic conditions and a growing number of second term. The PTB grew a little in size but remained very parties, Dilma had more difficulty in maintaining cohesiveness loose. The PPB, in turn, remained mostly the same in both between the parties that made up her ample and mostly size and cohesiveness. ideology-less coalition (Figure 7). The two main opposition parties, PSDB and DEM, remained as two isolated and very E. Lula (PT) – 2003-2007 cohesive clusters. DEM, however, lost about half its deputies Main parties (at least 20 deputies): PT (89), PSB (28), to offshoot PSD (Social Democratic Party), a roughly cohe- PTB (46), PL (36), PMDB (76), PP (51), PDT (20), PFL (59), sive, sizable group (37 deputies) that joined the government PSDB (53) coalition. Among Dilma’s supporters, the largest and most The election of Lula (PT) followed another economically cohesive group is still the PT. The PMDB is still second in turbulent period that resulted in the growth of leftwing and the alliance and is also cohesive, although not very tightly populist parties, such as the PT (now the largest party in so. Other considerable government allies include the smaller the chamber of deputies), the PSB, the PTB, and the PDT but reasonably cohesive PR and the much looser PSB and PP. and the considerable shrinking of the PFL and the PSDB, Traditional ally PDT shrunk to 17 deputies but remained very which became the only substantive opposition parties, forming close-knit. Also notable is the emergence of the Solidarity, two similar and close-knit opposition blocs (Figure 5). Of the a reasonably-sized (22 deputies) but very in-cohesive party. remaining parties of significant size, the PT was the only one A noteworthy political event that might have shaped voting whose voting behavior was very cohesive, although both the patterns during this period were mass protests held in 2013 PL and the PTB had sizable cohesive clusters along with many that reflected a growing but still very vague dissatisfaction of deputies that voted their own way. Also notable is the change the population with the political class. in the PPB, which was renamed PP and became a lot less cohesive despite retaining the same size. F. Lula (PT) – 2007-2011 H. Dilma (PT) – 2015-2016 Main parties (at least 20 deputies): PT (83), PTB (20), PDT (24), PR (46), PMDB (85), PSB (27), PP (41), DEM (50), PSDB (59) Main parties (at least 20 deputies): DEM (29), PSDB Despite a vote-buying scandal that threatened to bring down (51), PSB (31), PP (48), PSD (36), PMDB (67), PRB (22), Lula’s (PT) government during his first term in office, an PR (38), PDT (20), PT (57) economic boom led to his reelection and to very high approval Dilma’s (PT) reelection followed a very hotly contested ratings. This was reflected in the voting behavior of deputies election and a controversial campaign, in terms of both funding and can be very clearly seen in CivisAnalysis 2.0 (Figure 6): and method. Facing an unprecedented economic crisis, Dilma the opposition, made up mostly of the PSDB and the DEM did the opposite of what she promised during the campaign. (—a rebranded PFL), forms a small and cohesive What’s more, the PT found itself at the center of a major but completely isolated bloc. All other parties are bundled corruption scandal (uncovered by the now famous Operation together, although roughly overlapping and cohesive clusters Car Wash, which would soon engulf the two other larger can still be seen. It is interesting to note that the PT is still parties as well—the PMDB and the PSDB). Dilma and the especially cohesive, but there is now a breakaway cluster that PT’s newfound unpopularity and her difficulty in dealing with is very far from the main “body” of the party. Closer to the congress resulted in a breakdown of her coalition, which, along PT’s main clusters are the PDT and about half of the PSB. with fiscal mismanagement by her government, culminated in After years of being very loose, the PMDB is again very her impeachment and removal from office after a series of cohesive. Slightly less so are the PP and the PR (Party of the large-scale protests all over the country. Throughout this very Republic), a new party resulting from the fusion of the PL and turbulent period, the PT not only lost several of its major allies, the tiny PRONA (Party of the Reconstruction of the National such as the PSB and the PMDB, but it also found itself a Order). Also notable during this period was the beginning of little less cohesive than it used to be. Of the two remaining the proliferation of very small parties after the Supreme Court larger parties, the PSDB managed to stay slightly cohesive; struck down an electoral threshold as unconstitutional. the PMDB imploded, with its deputies rebelling against the government (theoretically their ally, as they hold the vice- G. Dilma (PT) – 2011-2015 presidency) and voting all over the political space (Figure 8). Main parties (at least 20 deputies): PT (91), PP (36), PSB DEM and PSB (which moved to the opposition during the (30), PMDB (74), PR (32), SDD (22), PSD (37), DEM (27), election) managed to stay reasonably cohesive, but the same is PSDB (44) not true for almost all other medium parties (the PDT being a Lula’s high approval ratings and the continued economic notable exception). Also worth noting is the continued growth growth led to the election of his successor, in the number of parties. Fig. 5. Lu´ıs Inacio´ Lula da Silva (PT) – 2003-2007

Fig. 6. Lu´ıs Inacio´ Lula da Silva (PT) – 2007-2011

Fig. 7. Dilma Rousseff (PT) – 2011-2015

Fig. 8. Dilma Rousseff (PT) – 2015-2016 Fig. 9. (PMDB) – 2016-2017

I. Temer (PMDB) – 2016-20171 Main parties (at least 20 deputies): PMDB (67), PRB (21), PSDB (51), DEM (27), PP (47), PSD (34), PR (40), PSB (33), PDT (20), PT (58) With Michel Temer (PMDB), who was vice-president under Dilma, the PMDB found itself again in the presidency after an impeachment. Once in power, Temer managed to form a broad and loose coalition including the PSDB, DEM, and most of the PT’s old allies (with the notable exception of the most leftwing parties, which stuck with the PT). Temer was able to break the parliamentary gridlock of Dilma’ second term, and also put together a new team, trying to get the economy back on track. However, along with prominent cabinet members and influential leaders of both the PMDB and the PSDB, he soon found himself engulfed by corruption accusations and investigations partly related to the Car Wash scandal, eroding his already feeble popularity and political capital. The effect of these events on party cohesiveness can be clearly seen in the voting patterns: the only significant party that managed to remain reasonably cohesive was the PT — in the visualization, deputies of all other parties are scattered all over the place (Figure 9).

1His term ends in 2019