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China Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK

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China Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK China State Information Center ACT Research Co., LLC • www.actresearch.net COMMERCIAL VEHICLES Forecast China Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK Q1 2014 Contributor to Blue Chip Economic Indicators and WSJ Economic Forecast Panel The China Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK is published quarterly by Americas Commercial Transportation Research Company, LLC (ACT), 4400 Ray Boll Blvd., Columbus, IN 47203. Phone: 812-379-2085, Fax: 812-378-5997, e-mail: [email protected] Copyright 2014 by ACT with all rights reserved. Reproduction, copying, or publication of this report in whole or part is not permitted without prior approval. This document is for internal use only. Questions and subscription requests should be directed to K.W. Vieth, Publisher. TABLE OF CONTENTS Page(s) Report Highlights ............................................................................................................................................................. 1 Preface: The Importance of China’s CV Market ............................................................................................................2 Macroeconomic Analysis ............................................................................................................................................ 3-8 Economic Overview Short-term Forecast Transport Environment & Industrial Policies .......................................................................................................... 9-19 Market Environment Industry Policies Commercial Truck & Bus Market Performance ..................................................................................................... 20-22 Forecast Summary ................................................................................................................................................... 23-30 Forecast Data .................................................................................................................................................... 31-32 Short Term Forecast to Q4’14 Long Term Forecast to 2018 Market Competition ................................................................................................................................................. 33-38 Special Features ...................................................................................................................................................... 39-41 Impact of NG Fuel on China’s Commercial Vehicle Market China NS4 Emission Standards Implementation Implications Appendix ....................................................................................................................................................................... A-1 Data Specifications OEM Alliances The China Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK is published quarterly by Americas Commercial Transportation Research Company, LLC (ACT), 4400 Ray Boll Blvd., Columbus, IN 47203. Phone: 812-379-2085, Fax: 812-378-5997, e-mail: [email protected] Copyright 2014 by ACT with all rights reserved. Reproduction, copying, or publication of this report in whole or part is not permitted without prior approval. This document is for internal use only. Questions and subscription requests should be directed to K.W. Vieth, Publisher. Q1 2014 • China CV OUTLOOK Copyright 2014 • All rights reserved HIGHLIGHTS Click paragraphs to zoom to more details FORECAST MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS Heavy and medium truck (including tractor) The pace of China’s economy eased slightly in markets will continue to grow in Q1’14, although Q4’13, with growth of 7.7% on a y/y basis. modestly. Infrastructure and manufacturing investments Declining growth is expected in the large and continue to be strong, but Q4 did see some medium bus segments in Q1’14, with growth slowing. forecast to enter the negative side of the ledger during Q2. Exports ended Q4 at 4.3% growth. Imports ended the year up 8.3%. The need for freight vehicles will rise corresponding to upticks in consumption and Confidence rose again in December, reaching foreign trade, but only after existing trucks are 102.3 and declined to 101.1 in January 2014. engaged. Q4’13’s CPI was lower than expected. The next two quarters will see moderation in PPI flat-lined in Q4 as a result of surplus business and leisure travel. Growth is expected production capacity. to be largest for the school bus and LNG transit bus markets. Expectations for the next two quarters call for growth in the neighborhood of 7.4% in Q1’14 and MARKET COMPETITION 7.6% in Q2. Dongfeng Group, CNHTC, and Shaanxi TRANSPORT ENVIRONMENT & INDUSTRIAL Automobile Group maintained their positions as POLICIES the three largest heavy truck manufacturers in Q4’13. Manufacturing investment was a drag to GDP in Q4, which fell to 7.7%. FAW maintained its first-place market share ranking in Q4. Manufacturing overcapacity continues to drag industrial investment. Major movement occurred in the medium duty market again in Q4, an indication of intense Concern continues regarding real estate inflation competition. pressures as well as speculative investment. Yutong Group’s Q4 sales skyrocketed to 34%, All investment, except power generation, from the previous quarter’s 24%, propelling them declined in Q4. over King Long and into the bus market’s lead position. New regulations restricting local debt are expected to pose downward pressure on SPECIAL FEATURES infrastructure per capita. Increasing costs of diesel and the growing China’s foreign trade situation continued its unacceptable levels of air pollution have created improvement in Q4 as domestic and international an opportunity for the development of LNG- economies improved. powered units. LNG buses comprise more than 50% of the total MEDIUM & HEAVY TRUCK MARKET new energy bus market. PERFORMANCE Heavy duty truck sales rose dramatically, ending Full implementation of China NS4 has been the quarter with 68% y/y growth. delayed until January 1, 2015. The major reason for the delay is the lack of availability of lower Significant heavy duty tractor demand continued sulfur fuel. in Q4, up 72% to 74,400 units. The major difference between the implementation Medium duty truck demand declined y/y for a process in China and the rest of the industrial second consecutive quarter in Q4, down -29.2% world is that China controls the change based on to 58,300 units. “registration” date rather than “manufacturing” Q4’13 domestic sales of large and medium buses date. rose 6% y/y to 36,100 units. Q1 2014 • China CV OUTLOOK • Page 1 Copyright 2014 • All rights reserved PREFACE THE IMPORTANCE OF CHINA’S MARKET: Although many second and third tier component With close to 50% of the world’s commercial providers continue to work with 1950s-1970s vehicle production, China’s medium and heavy technology, truck plants and key suppliers have duty truck markets are the largest globally, invested in state-of-the-art machine tools and according to data provided by the International manufacturing processes from around the globe. Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers Chinese suppliers are currently using the same (OICA). China’s economic revolution and design and analysis software used by their construction of the highway system have North American and European counterparts. spurred a boom in domestic Chinese Because they are working with large commercial vehicle demand. Infrastructure international firms, they are getting the same building is occurring at a frantic pace, and the quality and process certifications procured by new interstate system with new regulations is anyone who wants to work with big multinational changing the way freight is hauled. Progress in firms. logistics will result in more efficient freight EXCHANGE RATE: The exchange rate transportation, supporting the anticipated shift to between the Chinese Yuan (¥ or RMB) and the a more domestic-oriented economy, but will $US is shown in the graph below. From the likely moderate long-term commercial vehicle middle of 2008 to Spring 2010, the exchange demand. rate remained at approximately ¥6.80 for each The steady and sustained growth of China’s $US. By the end of February 2014, as reported economy will garner close attention from other by the Federal Reserve, the exchange rate had worldwide vehicle manufacturers and suppliers, weakened to ¥6.07/USD. and the country’s market share is set to continue at solid levels for years to come. China/U.S. Foreign Exchange Rate January 2008 - February 2014 Chinese Renmimbi to One U.S. Dollar Yuan per US$ 7.50 7.25 7.00 6.75 6.50 6.25 6.00 5.75 5.50 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Source: Federal Reserve Board, ACT Research: Copyright 2014 Q1 2014 • China CV OUTLOOK • Page 2 Copyright 2014 • All rights reserved MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS ECONOMIC OVERVIEW China Real GDP The pace of China’s economy eased slightly in Y/Y Percent Change Q1 '05 - Q4 '13 Q4’13, with growth of 7.7% on a y/y basis. That Percent was down slightly from the 7.8% pace of Q3, 18 16 which was the strongest since the 8.1% rate 14 posted for Q1’13. Full-year 2013 real GDP 12 growth was 7.7%, down slightly from 2012’s 10 7.8% expansion and above the 7.6% market 8 prediction. For perspective, 2012’s expansion 6 was the slowest annual advance since 1999, 4 and growth was 9.3% in 2011 and 10.4% in 2 2010. We expect growth to slow a bit with GDP 0 123412341234123412341234123412341234 increasing around 7.5% y/y during the first two 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 quarters of 2014. Source: People's Bank of China/National Bureau of Statistics ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2014 Two factors contributed
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