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I: Introduction I: INTRODUCTION In Utttrakhand, state assembly elections were conducted on February 21, 2007 for 70 assembly constituencies. A pre-poll survey conducted in 20 out of 70 assembly constituencies in Uttrakhand. The objective of the survey was to reflect the nature of voting behaviour and attitudes of people on electoral politics in the state. The survey was an attempt to understand the people’s perception on the performance of state government as well as the government at the Centre. Table -1: Background of the Assembly election in Uttrakhand, 2007 Total Number of Assembly Constituencies(AC) 70 Number of seats for General Category 55 Number of seats reserved for Scheduled Caste 12 Number of seats reserved for Scheduled Tribe 3 Total Number of Voters 5985302 Source: Indian election statistics are available at the Election Commission of India’s website: www.eci.gov.in. Table-2: Survey Frame Number of assembly constituencies surveyed 20 Number of polling station survey 80 Number of Respondents 1379 Type of Survey Pre poll Survey Table-3: Sample Profile: Census of India vs. Survey Variables Uttrakhand* (percent) Survey (percent) Rural 74 79 Urban 26 21 Women 49 12 Scheduled Caste 18 51 Scheduled Tribe 3 3 Hindu 85 90 Muslim 12 8 Sikh 2 1 Other** 1 1 *Census 2001, ** Christian, Jain and Buddhist 1 II: SURVEY DESIGN Selection of Assembly Constituency (AC): For the pre poll survey, it was decided to cover 20 assembly constituencies which were selected randomly using the probability proportionate to size (PPS) method. PPS method assures the same probability of larger as well as smaller sites. Probability Proportionate To Size (PPS) A list of all assembly constituencies were arranged in ascending order along with total number of electorates per AC then cumulative population of electorates was calculated. It was decided to conduct a survey in 20 assembly constituencies in the state out of the 80ACs. Thus, to arrive at sampling interval (SI) (or sampling constant), total population of electorates divided by 20 (suppose total electorates of the state was 20, 00000, divided by 20 then sampling interval becomes 100000). After that, a number less than calculated sampling interval is selected randomly i.e. between one and SI, in the column of cumulative population of electorates (suppose, randomly selected number was 10,000). This number is Random Start (RS). Random start is the first Assembly constituency. Calculate the following series: RS; RS+SI, RS+2SI; RS+3SI…, and these numbers of calculated series were matched in the column cumulative population of electorates and thus, lead to random selection of the ACs. Selection of Polling Stations (PS): It was predefined to interview respondent from randomly selected four polling stations of each assembly constituency. In order to select the polling station from each AC, a comprehensive list of PS in each AC was prepared and the total number of polling stations were divided by four (a pre determined number from each AC) to arrive at the sampling constant or sampling interval. First Polling station was selected randomly which ought to be less than sampling constant thereafter, sampling constant was added to the randomly selected PS to arrive at the second PS . This process was repeated for the selection of next polling stations in an assembly constituency. It is how; different polling stations were selected in each assembly constituency. Selection of respondent: Thirty respondents were randomly selected from the voter list of each polling station. The reason for sample size was to circumvent clustering and it also has logistic and methodological concerns. For this, a list of voters at each polling station was obtained and the total number of voters (at each PS) was divided by thirty to arrive at sampling 2 constant1.Sampling constant was added to the first respondent number to get next respondent and so on till selection of 30 respondent has completed. For the present household survey a structured interview schedule was used and fieldworkers were cautiously selected. Only those who have acquaintance with the region were selected and given training thereafter as it facilitate in improving interviewer performance and subsequently, of the whole survey. Table-4: Questionnaire Design 1. Language Designed Hindi 2. Language Translated -- 3. Language Administered Hindi 4. Number of Variables 103 5. Themes • Respondent’s Background • Comparison on performance of previous and present government • Performance of the MLAs • Public opinion about the politics in the state. • Question of Leadership Table-5: Details of Training Workshop of Investigator: 1. Date 10, Feb,2007 2. Venue Rishikesh and HNB Garhwal University, Srinagar Uttrakhand 3. Number of Investigator 40 4. Resource person(s) • Dr. Aditya Gautam, veerbhadra Rishikesh • Dr. Annpurna Nautiyal, deptt Political Science, HNB Garhwal University, Srinagar. • Sanjay Kumar,Praveen Rai and Vikas Gautam, , Delhi, CSDS Table-6: Data Collection and Processing Details 1. Date of Field work 11th -14th, Feb, 2007 2. Date of Data checking 15th -16thFeb, 2007 3. Venue of Checking Centre for Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) 4. Date of Data Entry 17th -18th Feb, 2007 5. Venue of Data Entry Centre for Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) 1 If there are 3000 respondents of a polling station, divide 3000 by 30 that will be equal to 100. Thus 100 is the sampling constant for sampling respondents for the survey. The first respondent should be less than 100 drawn from random number table. Thus , if 89th voter is the first respondent selected then keep on adding 100, that is 89+100=189(second respondent), 189+100=289(third respondent) and so on till select 30 respondent 3 Table-7: Details of Data Dissemination Electronic Media Name Date Time CNN-IBN 20th Feb, 2007 8.00pm 4 III: DETAILS OF SURVEY TEAM III. Details of Survey Team Sanjay Kumar of Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) Delhi directed the workshop. The fieldwork of the survey in the state was supervised by Aditya Gautam (Uttrakhand ), and Annpurna Nautiyal (Department of political science, HNB Garhwal University, Srinagar). The Central team which designed, coordinated and analysed the survey comprised of Dhananjai Joshi, Praveen Rai, Himanshu Bhattacharya, K.A.Q.A Hilal, Kanchan Malhotra, and Vikas Gautam of CSDS. 5 I: ANNEXURE-1 DETAILS OF SURVEY PROFILE Assembly Constituency Ac. No PS No No. of respondent 2 24 15 GANGOTRI 48 13 72 11 96 6 Total 45 GHANSALI 6 25 9 50 8 75 16 99 7 Total 40 CHAKRATA (ST) 10 30 27 90 18 Total 45 LAXMAN CHOWK 13 47 14 99 20 Total 34 RISHIKESH 17 36 11 73 12 110 12 147 18 Total 53 BHAGWANPUR (SC) 19 25 10 50 12 75 6 100 13 Total 41 MANGLOR 22 27 16 54 13 81 16 108 15 Total 60 BAHADRABAD 25 1 10 36 12 71 12 106 11 Total 45 LALDHANG 27 1 13 30 8 59 8 88 5 Total 34 6 BIRONKHAL 31 15 22 37 24 59 28 81 20 Total 94 RUDRAPRAYAG 36 15 23 30 23 45 24 60 25 Total 95 KARANPRAYAG 40 7 21 34 23 61 25 88 22 Total 91 DWARAHAT 45 13 22 34 25 55 21 76 25 Total 93 SOMESHWAR (SC) 49 6 22 26 20 46 22 66 20 Total 84 DHARI 53 1 25 36 25 71 13 106 26 Total 89 NAINITAL 55 25 19 52 15 79 18 106 15 Total 67 KASHIPUR 58 35 26 70 25 105 25 140 24 Total 100 PANTNAGAR- 60 18 25 GADARPUR 36 25 54 25 72 25 Total 100 CHAMPAWAT 64 9 22 7 38 22 67 24 96 24 Total 92 DIDIHAT 68 6 20 25 20 44 19 63 18 Total 77 Source: CSDS Data Unit 8 II. ANNEXURE-2 MARGINAL OF ALL QUESTIONS Q1: Have you heard about the Assembly Election to be held in the next month? Valid Cumulativ Frequency Percent Percent e Percent Valid No 168 12.2 12.2 12.2 Yes 1211 87.8 87.8 100.0 Total 1379 100.0 100.0 Q2: If Assembly Elections held tomorrow, who would you vote for? Valid Cumulativ Frequency Percent Percent e Percent Valid 01: Congress 629 45.6 45.6 45.6 02: BJP 442 32.1 32.1 77.7 03: JD(U) 1 .1 .1 77.7 04: CPI 6 .4 .4 78.2 05: CPI(M) 1 .1 .1 78.2 06: BSP 58 4.2 4.2 82.5 07: NCP 2 .1 .1 82.6 08: Samajwadi Party 5 .4 .4 83.0 30: AGP(P) 8 .6 .6 83.5 50: MIM 1 .1 .1 83.6 62: JKDP 1 .1 .1 83.7 66: KEC 1 .1 .1 83.8 93: UKD 98 7.1 7.1 90.9 96: Independent 18 1.3 1.3 92.2 97: Other smaller parties 12 .9 .9 93.0 98: DK 55 4.0 4.0 97.0 99: NA 41 3.0 3.0 100.0 Total 1379 100.0 100.0 Q3: Would you vote for the same whom you did vote right now? Valid Cumulativ Frequency Percent Percent e Percent Valid Will vote for the same 961 69.7 69.7 69.7 party Can change the party 156 11.3 11.3 81.0 Cannot say/D.K. 262 19.0 19.0 100.0 Total 1379 100.0 100.0 9 Q4: Were you able to vote in the Assembly Election held five years (2002) ago? Valid Cumulativ Frequency Percent Percent e Percent Valid No 256 18.6 18.6 18.6 Yes 979 71.0 71.0 89.6 Do not remember 52 3.8 3.8 93.3 Not a Voter then 92 6.7 6.7 100.0 Total 1379 100.0 100.0 Q4a: (If yes), Who did you vote for? Valid Cumulativ Frequency Percent Percent e Percent Valid 01: Congress 427 31.0 31.0 31.0 02: BJP 328 23.8 23.8 54.7 03: JD(U) 2 .1 .1 54.9 04: CPI 8 .6 .6 55.5 05: CPI(M) 1 .1 .1 55.5 06: BSP 49 3.6 3.6 59.1 07: NCP 2 .1 .1 59.2 08: Samajwadi Party 4 .3 .3 59.5 20: AUDF 2 .1 .1 59.7 30: AGP(P) 2 .1 .1 59.8 93: UKD 86 6.2 6.2 66.1 96: Independent 15 1.1 1.1 67.2 97: Other smaller parties 10 .7 .7 67.9 98: DK 43 3.1 3.1 71.0 99: NA 400 29.0 29.0 100.0 Total 1379 100.0 100.0 Q5: What do you give importance while voting? Valid Cumulativ Frequency Percent Percent e Percent Valid Candidate 607 44.0 44.0 44.0 Party 620 45.0 45.0 89.0 Caste-community 42 3.0 3.0 92.0 Something else 35 2.5 2.5 94.6 Cannot say/DK 75 5.4 5.4 100.0 Total 1379 100.0 100.0 10 Q6: What is your opinion about the performance of UPA government at the Centre? Valid Cumulativ Frequency Percent Percent e Percent Valid Very satisfied 363 26.3 26.3 26.3 Somewhat satisfied 514 37.3 37.3 63.6 Not at all satisfied 255 18.5 18.5 82.1 Cannot say/DK 247 17.9 17.9 100.0 Total 1379 100.0 100.0 Q7: What is your opinion about the performance of present Congress govt.
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