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EDITOR-IN-CHIEF Ruben Banerjee MANAGING EDITOR Sunil Menon FROM EXECUTIVE EDITOR Satish Padmanabhan FOREIGN EDITOR Pranay Sharma THE POLITICAL EDITOR Bhavna Vij-Aurora SENIOR EDITOR Giridhar Jha (Mumbai) CHIEF ART DIRECTOR Deepak Sharma EDITOR WRITERS Lola Nayar, Qaiser Mohammad Ali (Senior Associate Editors), G.C. Shekhar (Associate Editor), Jeevan Prakash Sharma (Senior Assistant Editor), Ajay Sukumaran, Puneet Nicholas Yadav, Jyotika Sood, Lachmi Deb Roy (Assistant Editors), Naseer Ganai (Senior Special Correspondent), Preetha Nair (Special Correspondent), Salik Ahmad (Senior Correspondent) COPY DESK Rituparna Kakoty (Senior Associate Editor), Anupam Bordoloi, Saikat Niyogi, Satyadeep (Associate Editors), Syed Saad Ahmed (Assistant Editor) PHOTOGRAPHERS S. Rakshit (Chief Photo Coordinator), Jitender Gupta (Photo Editor), Tribhuvan Tiwari (Deputy Photo Editor), Sandipan Chatterjee, Apoorva Salkade (Sr Photographers), Suresh Kumar Pandey (Staff Photographer) J.S. Adhikari (Sr Photo Researcher), RUBEN BANERJEE U. Suresh Kumar (Digital Library) Digitally Yours EDITOR IN CHIEF DESIGN Saji C.S. (Chief Designer), Leela (Senior Designer), Devi Prasad, Padam Gupta (Sr DTP Operators) the near-collapse of our daily routine. Printing a magazine DIGITAL Neha Mahajan (Associate Editor), Soumitra Mishra (Digital Consultant), when movements are severely restricted poses immense Jayanta Oinam (Assistant Editor), challenges. Even if we print, distribution of copies at a time Mirza Arif Beg (Special Correspondent), Neelav Chakravarti (Senior when flight and train services have been halted, and sever- Correspondent), Charupadma Pati (Trainee EAR is in the air and I am Journalist), Suraj Wadhwa (Chief not entirely exempt from it. al states have ordered border closures, would be a veritable Graphic Designer), nightmare. 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racy that provides shade to ON E-MAIL tise society—what is the pro- ON E-MAIL the deprived and disenfran- Harish S.: The cover story on cess?” No politician thinks of Vishwanath Dhotre: chised. Kanhaiya Kumar is the Kanhaiya was a waste of democatising society. The pres- Kanhaiya does not deserve product of that culture, giving space. There were so many ent state of affairs suits them to be on a magazine cover. It FROM THE Daak Room
voice to the voiceless. important stories that week better. The reason is simple, as looks like you are leaning 20 November 1941 and you chose one not worth Osho points out: “The majority towards leftist ideas. Mr LUCKNOW the time and effort. consists of fools, utter fools. Banerjee, have you buried the My dear wife and sons, I’m sure that you understand M.C. Joshi: There have been Beware of the majority. If many principles with which Outlook that I would like to know more details about your so many presidents of JNU GOA people are following a thing, was founded? situation, which worries me greatly. I received the Students’ Union and M.N. Bhartiya: Kanhaiya is that is enough proof that some- packages that you sent, including a food parcel…As BANGALORE for me, I am fine. I am still hopeful that we will Kanhaiya was just one of neither hero nor hype; the thing is wrong. Truth happens be together again as we were in the past. One of them till he shot to fame for perception is that he is a great to individuals, not to crowds.” Rangarajan T.S.: The my friends was released from here, Ehrlich, did he the wrong reasons. After the leader in the making. Kanhaiya The present majoritarian name Kanhaiya instantly visit you? If you can, send me a little oil and row at the event on Afzal very aptly said in his interview: governments are proof enough evokes a strong spiritual vinegar in a bottle and some onions in the next Guru in February 2016, he “Democracy has been reduced of who they are feeling among millions in package. I ask you my dear ones that in the next started speaking against to elections. How to democra- representing—damn fools. our nation because Lord card, each one of you three write in your own handwriting. I am signing off. [You need to] be Modi and his policies. As Krishna is fondly called by even more courageous, and don’t lose hope that soon happens in the case of that name. After JNU, we will be together again, as we were in the past. I Modi-baiters, he became the Kanhaiya Kumar is now hug you very tight, and again, one more time, we hero of Opposition parties trying to make himself will see each other soon. and leftists. For others, he is relevant in politics. JNU has just a rabble-rouser. It is become a paradise for Your husband and father. No tobacco or cigarettes in the next package surprising that Outlook took so-called deprived students p.s. regards to little… Send him a hug from me Kanhaiya to be a leader of who, on the pretext of getting such calibre that you dedi- a degree, enjoy a highly sub- cated a cover story to him and sidised life. Biharis who vote Hope above all Excerpts of last letter from Isaac K., discussed whether he would later this year won’t take a Jewish man, during the Holocaust be able to prevent a seasoned much time to choose Hero Or Zero? leader like Nitish Kumar between a seasoned adminis- from winning a fourth trator like Nitish and a MUMBAI VARANASI consecutive election. novice like Kanhaiya. Arun Malankar: This Indu Shankar Dube: This refers to the refers to Curse Of The DIGIMAG.OUTLOOKINDIA.COM
cover story Hero Or Hype (March 23). Coronavirus (March 16). Nowadays, Opposition leaders try to Whispers in political corri- become famous by criticising the Prime dors as well as the interna- Minister and his decisions. They relent- lead to a revolt in power, but also sends out a tional media say that the lessly endeavour to create a third front or Congress? Will more lead- clarion call to ‘the grand pandemic might have been of cards. Till only the other fourth front to defeat BJP. Same is the case Party’s ers emulate him and leave old party’, which refuses to the result of a failed exper- day, Yes Bank was consid- with Kanhaiya Kumar. After the collapse the sinking ship? That will let go of the Gandhis. That iment to create a biological ered one of the better pri- of communist states across the world, the Over be the case if the party once formidable power weapon of mass destruc- vate sector lenders, people of India too have rejected the SECUNDERABAD does not correct its style of centre that has lost rele- tion. Unconfirmed reports enjoying enormous good- YOUTUBE.COM/OUTLOOKMAGAZINE ideology. The defeat of Kanhaiya in Padmini Raghavendra: functioning. It must first vance and become redun- are pointing fingers to a will among the public and Begusarai against the BJP candidate by a This refers to Royal Shift resolve the leadership dant in India’s radically secret collusion between the financial community. margin of more than four lakh votes Ruffles The Middle crisis. This decision has to changed political milieu. the ruling clique of a theo- P. Chidambaram says that instantiates this. Moreover, the charges of Kingdom (March 23). be taken within the family. cratic country and the gov- the mismanagement of sedition are often difficult to substantiate, Congress seems to be Then comes the reorgani- ON E-MAIL ernments of a couple of financial institutions that is why Kanhaiya is confident of his doing everything to make sation and restructuring of L.J.S. Panesar: There have nations professing the under the BJP government acquittal. Sometimes, the media exagger- itself extinct. If the plan is ings, BJP allows for a the party. The Congress been no serious attempts doctrine of atheism. is responsible. The ates—this reflects in this cover story too. to die, there is no better degree of internal discus- has to fight not only by party leaders to break Congress leader would do FACEBOOK.COM/OUTLOOKINDIA
The media should maintain a balance way to kill it than the sion and dissent. Congress national parties, but also away from the Nehru- MYSORE well to remember that while reporting about any movement or course being followed in is living in its own cocoon. regional forces emerging in Gandhi dynasty’s leader- J. Akshobhya: This refers during his tenure as tenderfoot like Kanhaiya. the past few months. The This is a sad situation for a many states. ship. Whenever the to Yes, You Are In Queue finance minister, UPA was Congress is not devoid of party once associated with question of leading the (March 23). So deep- was embroiled in several DEHRADUN good leaders, but they India’s freedom struggle. KOCHI party comes up, why is the rooted is the rot in the scandals. At that time, the Rakesh Agrawal: I was a scholar for years simply cannot muster the George Jacob: The defec- focus only on the first country’s financial system, Opposition had been pro- in the vibrant JNU campus and witnessed courage to think beyond BANGALORE K.S. tion of Jyotiraditya Sinha family when there is no there is no knowing when active in pointing them the seeds of debate, discussion and dissent the Gandhi family. Jayatheertha: Will to BJP shows not only the dearth of talent among the the best in the business out. The pot should cease TWITTER.COM/OUTLOOKINDIA being sown, growing into a tree of democ- Whatever its other fail- Jyotiraditya Scindia’s exit hunger for trappings of younger generation? would collapse like a house calling the kettle black.
00 OUTLOOK4| DECEMBER OUTLOOK |16,APRIL 2019 6, 2020 OUTLOOKINDIA.COM DECEMBERAPRIL 16, 6, 2019 2020 | |OUTLOOKOUTLOOK 005 THE Cops across the country have POLIGLOT enforced the lockdown with the lathi. NEWS Here’s an example from Calcutta. MIXED SHOTS A Tale of Two Kashmiris Omar Abdullah is free, but Yasin Malik could be in for a long haul
Naseer Ganai in Srinagar
T was quite a sight outside the Hari INTERVIEW Petrol and diesel prices can rise further Nagar guesthouse as the Finance Bill passed by Parliament Inear former CM Omar allows the special additional excise Abdullah’s official ‘BSP wants duty to be hiked by Rs 18 and residence in Srinagar on Rs 12, respectively. The present limit March 24. Surrounded by is Rs 10 for petrol and Rs 4 for diesel. people wearing masks due Bahujans to the Covid-19 pandemic, Former J&K CM Omar the National Conference Abdullah after his only to leader stepped out of the release (left); JKLF guesthouse where he had chairman Yasin Malik hoist the been detained for 232 days. He was sporting the white beard and the line gets disconnected when- party flag’ he had vowed not to shave until his ever he starts speaking. My brother SURESH K. PANDEY release. In his first post-release tweet, has decided to go on hunger strike Omar said it is “a very different world from April 1.” Bhim Army chief Chandrashekhar Azad has launched a new responsibilities, the government becomes dictatorial. Did today to the one that existed on Yasin’s family has shared with the party—the Azad Samaj Party. In an interview to Preetha anyone question this government on the sale of public-sector August 5, 2019” when J&K was put media an open letter written by him in Nair, Azad explains why he thinks his party will be an companies? I have tweeted to PM Narendra Modi that our under lockdown to prevent unrest jail after the charges were framed. alternative to the Bahujan Samaj Party. Excepts: private hospitals should be nationalised the way it was done following the abrogation of Articles “During my stay in jail in 1992, top in Spain. We need public-sector institutions more than ever. 370 and 35-A. intelligence officers and several civil so- The Bhim Army has been an organisation fighting for Do Dalits need a separate party? How different will the The Delhi government increased the Days before Omar’s release, a TADA ciety members, like Kuldip Nayar, the rights of Dalits. What will be the Azad Samaj Party’s Azad Samaj Party be from other parties? 2020-21 budget for water and sanitation court in Jammu framed charges Rajmohan Gandhi, ex-Chief Justice main focus? ➞ If the National Population Register and National Register by around 70 per cent. Up to 20,000 against Jammu Kashmir Liberation Rajinder Sachar and Wajahat ➞ As a political party, our effort will be to mobilise historically of Citizens exercises are implemented, the Dalit community litres of free water and 200 units of free Front chairman Yasin Malik and six Habibullah, visited me,” he writes. marginalised castes and communities, and to build an alliance will be the most affected. But nobody is talking about it. We power were key to catapulting AAP to others in a case involving the killing of “They wanted me to give peace a among them. We will ensure that the Constitution is imple- called a Bharat Bandh on February 22 to protest against the power in Delhi for a third time. four air force personnel in an attack by chance. I was told that if I shunned the mented in letter and spirit, and will agitate against any law Supreme Court’s ruling that reservation is not a fundamen- militants in Srinagar on January 25, path of armed struggle and returned to that is against the interest of society. Our ideology is rooted in tal right. How many parties came out on the street against it? 1990. The framing of charges three peaceful non-violent struggle, we would the ideals of Kanshi Ram, Babasaheb Ambedkar and other No party raised a hue and cry. Every day, there are reports of decades after the CBI filed the charge- be provided with a genuine political revolutionaries. Kanshi Ramji floated the BSP so that leaders atrocities against Dalits and the parties use Dalits solely for sheet in August 1990 could mean a space and efforts would be made for the of Bahujan society could lead the party. If the BSP had worked electoral benefit. Our aim is to put an end to the caste sys- long haul in jail for the former militant resolution of the Kashmir dispute.” on Kanshi Ram’s ideology, the status of the backward commu- tem, and seek equal representation for young people, currently held in Delhi’s Tihar Jail in Referring to his decision to declare nity would have improved by now. Unfortunately, the party women and all the marginalised communities. Like the connection with a case of alleged ter- “unilateral ceasefire” in 1994 and has lost its direction and is represented by Brahmin leaders in scheduled castes and schedule tribes, the OBCs and the mi- ror funding of separatist activities adopt non-violent means of struggle, Parliament. What is the difference then between the BSP and norities also need political representation, which is now being probed by the NIA. Yasin writes: “It was an unpopular the BJP-Congress? We need leaders from Bahujan society to being enjoyed only by Brahmins and other elite castes. On March 7, the court of the addi- decision and I was declared a traitor by lead the party. The BSP has compromised on its ideology and Will you contest the forthcoming Bihar assembly polls tional sessions TADA judge III, desig- many. I miraculously escaped a bid on wants Bahujans only to hoist the party flag. It has used the and Uttar Pradesh panchayat elections? Any talk of nated for hearing the 1990 case, said my life when I was kidnapped by some Dalit community only as a vote bank. That’s alliances? there was enough evidence to frame militants. Many of my colleagues lost why I had to launch a party for the Dalits and ➞ We will contest in Bihar and Uttar Seventeen security personnel were killed charges. Yasin’s family members claim their lives…. All the governments from the backward community. “We are willing Pradesh. First, we have to strengthen our during an encounter with Maoist guerrillas he has been wrongly charged in a 1994, led by prime ministers like P.V. What do you think of the existing opposition cadre in all states. I will embark on a Jan in Chhattisgarh’s Sukma district. Twelve of trumped-up case. “Why have they Narasimha Rao, H.D. Deve Gowda, I.K. parties? to join hands Jagriti Yatra after the coronavirus pandemic the slain personnel were from the District raked up a 30-year-old case now?” asks Gujral, Atal Behari Vajpayee and ➞ Opposition parties have failed to question with like-minded is over. No discussion with parties has taken Reserve Guard and five from the Special Yasin’s sister Abida. “He is not being Manmohan Singh, honoured the the BJP government on price rise, unemploy- place in Bihar so far, but we are willing to Task Force. Their bodies were recovered in produced before the court. The hear- pledge made to us by the Indian gov- ment and economic crisis, among other press- parties to defeat join hands with like-minded parties to de- a search operation on Sunday. ing is done through video conferencing ernment in 1994.” O ing issues When the Opposition fails to fulfil its the BJP.” feat the BJP. That’s our strategy in UP too. O
6 OUTLOOK | APRIL 6, 2020 OUTLOOKINDIA.COM APRIL 6, 2020 | OUTLOOK 7 POLIGLOT one sheet for number brevis PUNJAB one MLA Harpal Singh Cheema, was appointed Look Who’s AAP in Khaira’s place. Though the Punjab unit appears more stable now, it needs a strong People dashed to markets And Around organisational structure to take on the even before the PM finished well-entrenched Congress, Shiromani his lockdown address. But something was missing from Football icon G.P. Singh in Chandigarh Akali Dal and the BJP. “Things are chang- Pradip Kumar the Indian shopping list. Toilet Banerjee, aka P.K. Banerjee, ing for our party, and the results will be vis- AAP was hot paper. We don’t need them. We has died aged 83 in Calcutta. ible soon,” says Cheema. Things seem to AAP’s newly appointed favourite in the have changed for AAP’s state unit presi- have the ‘shooter’, sprinkler, He represented India in 36 HEN Punjab affairs in-charge, Jar- 2017 Punjab polls, dent, Bhagwant Mann, too. At a recent mugga, lota, or plastic cola official matches, wearing the bottle. That’s not the case in nail Singh, along with other until it lost the plot press conference, Mann announced he the West. When Europe and captain’s armband in six. Wleaders walked the parikarma of Darbar would welcome Navjot Sidhu into the America went into a shell to Sahib, Amritsar, early in March, there party, though he had opposed the cricket- stop the coronavirus from was a bounce in their steps and much er-turned-politician’s entry before the spreading, people emptied out display of hope for the assembly polls 2017 polls. “I have made him (Sidhu) an entire shelves of toilet paper. due in 2022. The appointment of the offer, but there has been no formal meeting No wonder, the pandemic young Sikh, who represents Tilak Nagar so far,” the second-time MP from Sangrur has come to be known as the Country music legend Kenny in the Delhi Assembly, came alongside A close confidant of Delhi CM Arvind and all other sections of society.” told media. Sidhu, who resigned from the Great Toilet Paper Crisis. But Rogers, whose hits include internal discussions on how to avoid Kejriwal, Singh is now making regular Ahead of the 2017 polls, Kejriwal had led state cabinet last year, met Sonia Gandhi how much do you really need? songs like Coward of the county the mistakes that pushed AAP to No. 2 trips to Punjab. “I spoke to people in AAP’s Punjab campaign from the front, this February, and said he was given a pa- At www.blitzrechner.de/ and The Gambler, has died aged in Punjab despite a groundswell of the ruling Congress who are unhappy holding rallies across the state. The party tient hearing. toilettenpapier, curious users support ahead of the 2017 assembly with the way their government is func- predicted winning 100-plus seats in the Meanwhile, AAP’s Punjab core commit- 81 in Georgia, US. can work out how long their elections. “We don’t want to repeat tioning,” says Singh. “Like people of 117-member assembly, but ended up with tee chairman Budh Ram, a first-time MLA stockpile will last. The website those mistakes,” says Singh. “We Delhi, in Punjab, too, they want af- just 20. Later, Sukhpal Singh Khaira, who from Budhlada, has said AAP will ann says: “For a ‘number one’, one became the principal opposition party fordable health facilities, cheap power had taken over from H.S. Phoolka as leader ounce its CM candidate by August 2021, or two sheets should suffice.” in the last elections, and are confident and quality education. Our party has in of opposition, was removed from the post realising perhaps that not doing so before We say, use a lota; or a bidet of a better show in 2022.” mind the needs of farmers, students following allegations of bribery. First-time the 2017 polls cost it many seats. O at least. O
Albert Uderzo, who drew Love Lock the Asterix and Obelix comics, ICC, SHARMA KARO has died aged 92 at his home in HI, MUMBAI Who knew Kanye West’s from home has not 2008 song Love Lockdown Neuilly, France. ORKING been kind to social media F Venice can have its dolphins would come prophetic in managers. After an back after the crowds left, so India 2020? But in these dire can Mumbai. Videos of times, everything is possi- W“unknown malfunction” led to the I humpback dolphins swimming ble—evident from the surge PIB Twitter handle liking along the south Mumbai coast in sale of condoms and pills. random pornographic and are swooning social media. Ardent lovers are stocking up on vital personal protec- Fugitive diamond merchant Japanese tweets, the latest in “Shutdown of cities is not so bad tion equipment. But those , accused in the the dock is the International after all,” Juhi Chawla pontificates. Nirav Modi envisioning a bacchanalian Cricket Council. The ICC had US$ 2 billion Punjab National Another theory ascribes their lockdown locked in their lov- Bank fraud, has been remand- tweeted a picture asking fans resurgence to the lack of fishing ENEMY? ME? er’s arms, beware! In neigh- ed in custody by a UK court to pick a batsman with the and movement of ships due to bouring China, coronavirus OW many roads must a man walk until April 15. best pull shot. Their options? the shutdown. O propelled casualty figures, Viv Richards, Ricky Pointing, down…before he realises there is a and divorce rates. Time to pay lockdown? The answer, my friend, is Virat Kohli and Herschelle Gibbs. heed to the Bollywood song, Hblowing in unique public advisories. Police in lockdown kiya to nibhana… O This incensed a certain gentleman, Madhya Pradesh have been handing out who retorted, “Someone’s missing here? pamphlets that say, “I am an enemy of society. I Not easy to work from home, I guess.” Quite will not stay at home,” to people stepping Tamil movie director, produc- understandable considering he is the only batsman to score three double outside. Many other governments are pasting er, actor, playwright M.R. hundreds in ODIs and four centuries in the shortest format of the game, notices outsides the houses of those advised to Viswanathan, popular as the most for any player. The gentleman, you ask? A certain Rohit Visu, has died aged 74. His mov- self-quarantine. And in case they still sneak Sharma, we hear. O ies include Dowry Kalyanam. out? They have also stamped their hands lest they decide to go gallivanting about town. O
8 OUTLOOK | APRIL 6, 2020 ILLUSTRATIONS: SAAHIL; TEXT CURATED BY ALKA GUPTA APRIL 6, 2020 | OUTLOOK 9
DELHI/SHAHEEN BAGH
Empty Garden A flat-topped truck carries away installations from Delhi’s Shaheen Bagh after police removed protestors from the site
protesters have to retreat at this point and prepare for future plans,” Habib tells Outlook. Protests in other cities like Lucknow, Patna, Bangalore and Calcutta too had been called off in the wake of the corona pandemic. Political activist and Congress worker Sadaf Jafar agrees with Habib. Jafar was jailed by the Uttar Pradesh gov- ernment for leading an anti-CAA march in Lucknow in December. An active participant of the Lucknow sit-in, she says the women protesters “We will be have written a letter to the police commissioner, saying they are calling off their 66-day-long protest tempo- rarily in the wake of the outbreak. “We are taking a break, we will con- tinue the fight,” says Jafar. They have no faith in the government since it shows no intention of budging from back”Anti-CAA protesters aren’t dispirited and say its stand, she says, but nor will they. “We did not start the protest thinking they will come back in full force it will impact the government,” she tells . JITENDER GUPTA Outlook On March 12, Union home minister Preetha Nair start functioning soon, the lockdown nary women coming out to claim their The fate of the protest had been though few know it was Delhi Traffic Amit Shah assured the Rajya Sabha that permitting. But there’s one thing she’s voice and space in public discourse. hanging ever since the Delhi govern- Police that had actually barricaded the no one will be marked as doubtful citi- certain of: the protests have only hit a The manner and mode of its disband- ment imposed a post-corona lock- main arteries. “In the past 100 days, we zens during the NPR exercise and docu- OR over three months now, part comma, not a full stop. It merely goes ing—at least a temporary dispersal down. It had appealed to the braved many things. There were at- ments are not necessary. However, of Shagufta Ahmad’s daily into hibernation for the duration of became increasingly inevitable, in protesters, who were not ready to tacks on us, the government ran fake concerns have been exacerbated by the routine was to pass through the the COVID-19 emergency. She wants view of the social distancing protocol— budge. Ritu now says the protests will news campaigns against us, they try to recent affidavit filed by the government Fmirror between two worlds. On one the government to revoke the new citi- itself was a matter of controversy. Had resume with vigour after normalcy blame us for the Delhi riots,” says in the Supreme Court. In its reply to the side was the crushing banality of life in zenship law, and the NPR/NRC pro- the protest lingered beyond its utility? returns: “It’s a temporary phase. The another protester. PILs on CAA, the government said the the ‘ghetto’—no wonderland. On the cess: she sees them as the enemy of her It had survived the severest winter, protests will grow. It’s not about num- For Syed Taseer Ahmad, Shaheen Citizenship Amendment Act, 2019, is a other, the call of history. And as if on a future, and that of her children. She is and stayed resolute as ‘riots’ convulsed bers alone…Gandhi ran a campaign Bagh is not a traffic-stopper but a path- “benign” piece of legislation, and that mission, she toggled between the two. among lakhs of debutante protesters another part of the city. Would it now alone. The government will have to breaker for all of India. “We’ll come there is limited scope for judicial review After winding up her household in India—none of them career activ- not heed the public responsibility bow before the public.” back in full force. We were planning a on a law passed on the issue of citizen- chores, the 43-year-old would join ists—who behold the CAA as a discrim- brought on by a pandemic? Women’s right activist Kalyani jail bharo campaign before the corona ship by Parliament. The government thousands of women at the Shaheen inatory law, a harbinger of Shagufta is affronted that the ques- Menon Sen sees it as part of the state’s scare. We will intensify our agitation has also said the proposed NRC is a nec- Bagh protest site at 6 am and leave for statelessness. tion is even asked. They had shifted to hostility. “Our thaali-banging leaders when things become normal,” says essary exercise. Constitutional expert home at 7pm. Her beauty salon was The leaderless Shaheen Bagh move- a symbolic protest, with only five have removed them from a safe space Ahmad. Yet, questions about its future Faizan Mustafa says the affidavit has temporarily closed and her school- ment has been heralded by many for women, during the ‘janata curfew’ on where they were maintaining COVID- shape are not coming from only critics. many contradictions. “It’s shocking that going children’s life was in chaos. But creating a new narrative, one that Sunday, she says. Political activist 19 protocols in a socially responsible One section feels the protests in their the government affidavit is at variance her children are proud of their mother invoked the Constitution and saw ordi- Kavita Krishnan tweeted that the po- way, and shoved them into a place present shape have stretched on too with the promise made by the prime being a part of an iconic protest. It lice cleared away “a protest site that where their safety is compromised in long, with diminishing returns, and minister at the Ramlila grounds and the unfolded “in a corner of Okhla”, as a the brave women had already cleared”. every sense,” says Sen. they should be given a new shape. categorical assurance given by the right-wing commentator had scoffed, Ritu Kaushik, a protester, wonders The protest, started by a handful of Another argues that a movement that Home Minister barely a week ago. The but it was a corner that attracted Some feel the why the government removed them women in mid-December, had hit sparked a new political awakening affidavit does not answer any of the international attention, and will lure protest stretched since they adhered to all the COVID-19 many roadblocks in its 101 days. must continue. objections raised by the petitioners,” historians in the future. protocols. “We used to sit in small Shaheen Bagh was widely berated in Syed Irfan Habib, the Delhi-based Mustafa tells Outlook. In short, the rea- Now that the Delhi government on for too long groups, followed all the guidelines. If the media for allegedly blocking traffic historian, belongs to the first lot. He son that brought Shaheen Bagh to life cleared the Shaheen Bagh protest site and must be the government was concerned about between south-east Delhi and Noida— believes the Shaheen Bagh women still lives, and the body politic too has on March 25—everyone seemed to be us, why didn’t they discuss our de- the Supreme Court itself has found have “made their point” emphatically. developed the antibodies necessary to itching for it—Shagufta’s salon may reshaped. mands?” she asks. time to be seized of the matter— “They can’t stretch it forever. The resist it and keep itself healthy. O
10 OUTLOOK | APRIL 6, 2020 OUTLOOKINDIA.COM APRIL 6, 2020 | OUTLOOK 11 THE AUTHOR IS A CULTURAL CRITIC AND COMMENTATOR. HIS NEWEST BOOK IS GOD IS OPINION/ Shajahan Madampat NEITHER A KHOMEINI NOR A MOHAN BHAGWAT
nity feels is ripe to form reliable elec- toral alliances. Sixth, it should build This Rubicon Must Be Crossed bridges with civil society groups to fight communal forces, environmental Indian Muslims have lost faith in national institutions and destruction and the denial of civil lib- erties and human rights. The differ- ‘secularism’. They must mobilise politically. ence between most such civil society groups and so-called secular parties is that the former is less likely to betray their ideals for temporary gains than communal violence that mob with equanimity: “Friends, the President of America is here. The the latter, which are prone to compro- THE rocked Northeast Delhi image of the country will suffer if you kill us and torch my house. Please mises and deception. One example of two weeks ago, the mas- come back a couple of days later”. this is that a majority of ‘secular’ par- sive human and material Second, dependence of Indian Muslims on ‘secular’ parties benefited ties have formed alliances with the losses Muslims had to suffer and the the latter immensely throughout the period after Independence, but did BJP at one point or the other. indifference of all political parties to little to protect the former during communal riots or to improve their Seventh, it should not do or say any- their plight make one conclusion inev- material condition. No top leader from any ‘secular’ party had the cour- thing that will provoke more Hindus itable: the only option left for Indian age to descend on the scene during the violence and offer their support into the Sanghi fold. They should al- Muslims is to organise themselves po- to victims, primarily because they feared the loss of Hindu votes. They ways maintain in their words and deeds litically. All other choices they have so believed, perhaps correctly, that a substantial segment of Hindus has JITENDER GUPTA the distinction between Hindutva and far exercised have been utterly futile. bought into the Sangh Parivar propaganda about Hindu victimhood. Muslims know that hate against them is spreading like wildfire Sangh Parivar on the one hand and the A political formation led by members Had there been a strong political leadership within the Muslim commu- larger Hindu society on the other. from within would have improved nity in Delhi, they would not have had the luxury of shirking their re- the Constitution—emerges within the community, the existing leadership Eighth, the new political formation their chances of effective resistance sponsibility. Apart from the possibility of such a Muslim leadership vacuum will be filled by impetuous zealots and cynical rabble-rousers. should keep away the temptation to in- against marauding mobs. That Delhi standing by their people, they would also have been able to curb fanati- dulge in identity assertion and focus on did not have a single recognisable cal elements within the community that went berserk, attacking inno- Contours of a New Muslim Politics citizenship assertion. Harsh Mander leader from the Muslim community to cent Hindus in neighbouring areas. This new Muslim politics should be Gandhian in its inclusivity, in its acc recently said: “The Muslim brothers speak and act on its behalf in this cru- Third, our political history has demon- eptance of diversity within and outside the community, in its commit- cial hour is proof that the usual prac- strated that marginalised communities ment to Hindu-Muslim unity, in its adherence to non-violence. It should tice of dependence on, and tasted political empowerment and a modi- not only be open to, but must proactively include within its ranks and exploitation by, the so-called secular cum of self-confidence only when they or- leadership its overwhelming diversity—various sects, devout, atheist, irr parties is no longer tenable. Our history ganised themselves politically--BSP, SP, eligious, Sunni, Shia, gay, lesbian, transgender, freethinkers. In other Muslim women shows that RJD, IUML are some examples. Fourthly, words, anyone who is likely to be targeted as Muslim by Hindutva forces taking charge Four Reasons a right-thinking social and political lead- should have equal space in it. Second, women should take the lead in the There are four reasons why Indian marginalised ership for Muslims now is the best bet formation and running of the political formation. History shows us that can be the Muslims should seriously think about communities against possible radicalisation and fool- menfolk, imbued with macho patriarchy, have always subordinated beginning of a bringing a major chunk of the commu- hardiness. The political situation now is so greater common good to selfish motives. Shaheen Bagh has shown us nity under a single political umbrella. are empowered completely pitted against the community spectacularly how a women-led movement can be qualitatively different, social churning First, the subjectivity of an Indian that extremist elements wanting to fish in not prone to violence and remarkably stubborn. The coming out of Muslim at the current juncture is very when they orga- troubled waters will find their task much Muslim women to take charge can be the beginning of a much-needed within the different from that of even her ardent nise politically. easier. Our pride in the fact that only a few social churning within the community. community. non-Muslim secular supporter. hundred Indian Muslims out of 200 mil- Third, the new formation should eschew religious symbols and slogans, Tweets by Yogendra Yadav and Nidhi lion ever joined the ranks of global Jehadi and instead choose symbols and icons of Indian nationhood. Shaheen Razdan during the violence are illus- outfits may soon become passé. Indian Bagh proved the efficacy of that approach not just as a tactic, but also as an trative of this difference in subjectivi- Muslims never fell for jehadi adventurism precisely because the sense of inspiring model of citizenship assertion. The impassioned resort to the and sisters and children who are pres- ties. Both worried about the equal citizenship the Constitution granted them made them feel at home symbols and icons of India’s pluralist history and the reading of the pre- ent here are Indian by choice. The rest reputational damage to India during in spite of it being far from equal in reality. Now they feel a sense of be- amble to the Constitution there and elsewhere created a new idiom of of us are Indians by chance. We had no the visit of the US President. Although trayal by allies on one hand and a sense of psychological disenfranchise- secular, yet not deracinated resistance. Fourth, it should not be a mono- choice. We had only this country. But their commitment to Indian pluralism ment and imminent denial of citizenship, even physical annihilation by lith, but a loose umbrella of regional or state-based outfits. Because the you (Muslims) had a choice and your is beyond reproach, their social loca- enemies, on the other. political situation in the states differs from each other, a monolith will be ancestors chose to live in this country. tion allowed them the luxury of wor- Muslims have lost faith in all institutions in the country—government, counterproductive. It can also lead to a particular region or state develop- Today, those who are in the government rying about the country’s image, while police, judiciary, media, civil society and political parties. They know that ing hegemony over others. The only common ingredient at the national are trying to prove that Jinnah was a Muslim citizen could have only hate against them is spreading like wildfire among Hindus. They also level should be a set of ethical principles and the dream of restoring India right and Mahatma Gandhi was wrong.” prayed for survival. For the Muslim, know that among the disseminators of hatred are people who hold the to its saner self. It is the moral and historical duty of the pogrom threatened to kill her and highest positions in the land, who meticulously work on new laws and Fifth, it should keep out of electoral participation for at least a period of the Indian Muslims to prove Jinnah her family and destroy her property. policies aimed at consigning Muslims to an infernal existence in their 10 years, focusing instead on organisational work, political education, so- and Savarkar wrong, for that is the best The CAA/NRC/NPR posed a direct own country. This kind of an abject situation is fertile for radicalism and cial welfare and interfaith communication. Jumping into the fray will tribute they can pay to their forefa- threat to her citizenship. She cannot extremist tendencies to take root. Unless a political and social leader- make it susceptible to all that is wrong in Indian politics. The suggestion thers who chose to stay on in India. O open her door and tell the murderous ship—with a strong moral fibre and committed to the values and ideals of is not to boycott polls, but to avoid them until such time that the commu- (Views are personal.)
12 OUTLOOK | APRIL 6, 2020 OUTLOOKINDIA.COM APRIL 6, 2020 | OUTLOOK 13 OPINION/ LAWYER AND MP. MANISH TEWARI FORMER UNION MINISTER
society has not as yet sufficiently evolved. The expectation from the judi- A Case in Point ciary, to safeguard the rights of the citi- zens of this country, can only be ensured, Judicial independence needs a fresh look in the context by keeping it absolutely insulated and independent, from the other organs of of jurisprudence of checks and balances governance,” Justice J.S. Khehar, the presiding judge on the five-judge Constitution Bench, explained in his individual judgment. Later, justice enormous difference tive to distribute work amongst the different courts under him/her. Judges in Kurien Joseph, one of the judges ruling THE between former Chief a district, be it a sessions judge or a judicial magistrate first class, are selected in favour of striking down the NJAC, Justice of India Ranjan by a written examination and are transferred once every three years. expressed regret over his judgment. Gogoi’s nomination and Under our constitutional scheme, district and sessions courts are The whole question of judicial inde- previous selection-elections of administered by the high courts. Ordinarily, each district is superin- pendence needs a fresh look in the con- retired Supreme Court judges to the tended by a judge of the high court who is known as the ‘administrative text of the jurisprudence of checks and Rajya Sabha need to be evaluated in judge’. The administrative judge pens the annual confidential reports and balances. The two critical issues are the context of the vast increase in oversees the general working of a particular district. These reports are appointments and transfer of judges to powers of the office of the CJI before placed before the full court of the high court, i.e. all high court judges sit- ILLUSTRATION: SAAHIL the higher judiciary. The collegium sys- and after the Advocates-on-Record ting together. Administrative judges, therefore, are capable, at least in tem can be allowed to continue. How- versus Union of India case in 1993, theory, of exerting pressure on the judges in the district as annual confi- So to recap, district court judges report to their administrative judge who ever, the collegium recommendation’s Re–the Second Judges case. This dential reports written by them form the basis of promotions of the sub- is a high court judge. A high court judge, after the Second Judges case, is after security vetting by the government case tripped both the intricate doc- ordinate judiciary. Actually this oversight is meant to bolster public appointed by a SC collegium and can also be transferred by the said colle- must be sent to Parliament. Parliament trine of balance of power between confidence and act as a check against corruption, bias and prejudice. gium. Finally, for a high court judge to make his way to the SC, he/she must must constitute a Permanent Standing the executive, judiciary and the legis- Constitutionally, high courts are insulated institutions removed from all be approved by the second SC collegium. Committee co-chaired by both the chair- lature, as well as the theory of checks other branches of government. Everything from their workings to their This is where the CJI comes in. Being the de-facto chairperson of both SC person of the Rajya Sabha and the and balances that lies at the heart of procedures is self-regulating. Each high collegiums, he in theory can exert ‘control’ over any high court judge. A the Indian constitutional scheme. court is charged with evolving its own proce- non-cooperative high court judge may find himself being transferred. He or With the institutionalisation of dures. Impeaching a high court judge re- she can wake up one day to hear that his/her services have suddenly become the collegium system post the If you can control quires a two-thirds majority of Parliament. essential in a far-flung state away from the present place of posting. The CJI has Second Judges case, the chief jus- In theory, this isolation and insulation is re- tice, being the de facto head of the the CJI, you can in quired so as to enable the court (high courts) HE authority of transfers also gives the powers that be capacity to become the respective Supreme Court collegi- theory control the to check executive overreach. The only con- mould high court collegiums. Often free-spirited and independent fulcrum that has ums, has become the fulcrum that trol that any institution has over high court judges in high court collegiums find that just as they enter the collegium has the propensity, given an inclina- judiciary, thereby judges is that of appointment and transfer. Ton account of their seniority their legal acumen is suddenly in greater demand the propensity to tion, to exercise weight upon the This lacunae has been exploited overtime to in another high court where they are less senior and where they don’t come in entire judicial apparatus of the raising the spec- unfortunate effect. the collegium. The threat of transfer like the sword of Damocles hangs over exercise weight country from a civil judge to a high tre of institution- The SC like the high court is responsible every high court judge and through him over the district he administers. At the upon the entire court Chief Justice. for evolving its own procedures and its centre of this great power is none other than the chairman of the Supreme India’s judicial apparatus is divided al capture. judges are equally insulated from Court collegiums, the CJI. If you can control the CJI, you can in theory control judicial apparatus. into three distinct levels. At the bot- removal—unlike the high court they cannot the judiciary, thereby raising the spectre of institutional capture. tom are the district courts and its sub- be transferred out. The constitutional insu- It is in this context that the recent Rajya Sabha nomination of Justice ordinate infrastructure—the tehsil/ lations provided should, in an ideal world, make them the perfect guardians Gogoi needs to be understood. Justice Hidayatullah’s unanimous election as Speaker of the Lok Sabha. It must have munsif courts on the civil side and the of our fundamental freedoms. Constitutionally, the apex court is not the vice president of India or former CJI Ranganath Misra or for that matter eleven other members. All judicial magistracy courts on the criminal administrative superior of any high court. It possesses no power to give any Justice Bahrul Islam’s Rajya Sabha sinecures happened when the powers of appointments must require two-thirds side. These judicial organs are the ori- direction or mandate to any facet of the working of any high court. the CJI were severely restricted. majority for confirmation of every judge. gin point of adjudication of most civil Yet, over the years, the constitutional paradigm has broken down. The The UPA government, in its second avatar, tried to correct the skewed bal- A similar process must be put in place in disputes and criminal matters. These Second Judges case, initially hailed as epoch making, introduced the colle- ance by introducing the Judicial Standards and Accountability Bill 2010. I the states also for the subordinate judici- include both civil courts wherein a gium system. The judiciary assumed to itself powers of appointment and had personally led the discussion on that bill from the treasury benches on ary over time. The committee in that party/individual first goes to report a transfer of high court judges and appointment of SC Judges. The collegiums the December 28, 2011. Even though the bill was passed unanimously in the case should be chaired by the Speaker of dispute or where minor criminal themselves exist in a hierarchy. There is a high court collegium made up of Lok Sabha on March 29, 2012, it lapsed as the then government did not take the Vidhan Sabha and where legislative offences are prosecuted, followed by the top three high court judges which recommends names for elevation from it to the Rajya Sabha for inexplicable reasons. councils exist, chaired jointly. The the district and sessions courts where, amongst eligible candidates to the Supreme Court collegium. The SC itself When the NDA/BJP government assumed office, it brought the National Judicial Standards and Accountability in most cases, the first appeal lie. The has two collegiums. The top three judges (we can call them SC collegium 1) is Judicial Commission Appointment Act and the 99th Amendment to the Indian Bill should be reintroduced in Parl- two most important individuals in a responsible for approving or disapproving names sent by the high court colle- Constitution Though passed near unanimously by both houses of Parliament iament and passed. Similarly, all post re- district court are the sessions judge gium and is also responsible for overseeing transfer of judges from one high and ratified by more than half the state legislatures, it was struck down by the tirement reappointments must go and the chief judicial magistrate. The court to another. The top five judges (we can call the SC collegium 2) are Supreme Court on the specious premise that it subverted judicial independ- through a similar confirmation process. sessions judge is senior most officer in responsible for selecting individuals to fill vacancies that might arise in the ence. “It is difficult to hold that the wisdom of appointment of judges can be This is an idea whose time has come. the district and it is his/her preroga- apex court. Both SC collegiums are headed by the CJI. shared with the political-executive. In India, the organic development of civil (Views are personal.)
14 OUTLOOK | APRIL 6, 2020 OUTLOOKINDIA.COM APRIL 6, 2020 | OUTLOOK 15 MP/CHANGE OF GUARD
Puneet Nicholas Yadav In the 2018 polls, BJP veterans The comeback man, Shivraj Singh Chouhan Rustam Singh, Lal Singh Arya, Jaibhan after he was sworn in as the Madhya Singh Pawaiya, Ramlal Rautel and FTER a 15-month interlude, Pradesh chief minister Rakesh Shukla were defeated by the BJP maneouvered its way Jyotiraditya loyalists. Of these, back to power in Madhya the BJP a slender but comfortable Pawaiya has been the fiercest critic of PradeshA on March 23 with Shivraj majority for now, along with the possi- not just Jyotiraditya and his father, the Singh Chouhan sworn in for the fourth ble support of seven legislators who late Madhavrao Scindia, but of the time as chief minister. That the BJP’s won independently or on BSP and SP entire Gwalior royal family. A former return to power in the state it ruled for tickets. However, results of the bypolls Bajrang Dal leader with strong bonds 15 years from 2003 to 2018 was not on to 24 constituencies could significantly in the Sangh Parivar, Pawaiya tells the back of a popular mandate but one impact the stability of the Chouhan Outlook that “Jyotiraditya is welcome aided by rebellion within the Congress government if the BJP doesn’t win a in the BJP but must work like an ordi- is public knowledge. Earlier this bulk of the seats. nary karyakarta now… we will not treat month, erstwhile Gwalior royal “The MLAs who resigned had sought him like a maharaj, he has to earn his Jyotiraditya Scindia ditched the votes against the BJP in 2018 and were place”. The BJP will also need to pacify Congress to join the BJP and triggered elected because of the promises the Guna parliamentarian K.P. Singh a rebellion by loyal MLAs against Congress made. With what face will Yadav who defeated Jyotiraditya in the Chouhan’s predecessor, Kamal Nath. they now go to the people and explain Lok Sabha polls. A former confidante For nearly a fortnight, Nath and the betrayal?” asks Laxman Singh, of Jyotiraditya, Yadav had switched to Congress veteran Digvijaya Singh Congress legislator from Chachoura the BJP in 2017. made desperate efforts to win back the and younger brother of Digvijaya Singh. There is yet another challenge that the rebels. Singh, along with a dozen party The Chachoura MLA also expressed BJP may find difficult to navigate. Over leaders and ministers in the Nath gov- confidence of the Congress’s return to the past 15 months, Chouhan and his ernment, went to Bangalore to “rescue power within six months. colleagues had vociferously alleged that the legislators held captive by the BJP” BJP leaders concede that the party the Nath regime was corrupt and a lot of at a resort but was detained by the will have to walk a tightrope. “Even the allegations centered on portfolios Karnataka police. Governor Lalji PTI assuming that we give tickets to all that were held by the six Jyotiraditya Tandon demanded that Nath prove his rebels, will they all win? Some of them loyalists. Now that these loyalists are in majority through a floor test in the was lobbying for the post of deputy defeated our senior leaders in 2018. the BJP, can Chouhan afford to have the Vidhan Sabha but the CM dithered, chief minister if Chouhan returns as Will these veterans work for the new- alleged scams—particularly in Nath’s arguing that the 22 MLAs must first the CM. comers? There is bound to be some scheme of combating food adulteration return to Bhopal. The now familiar “I have been an MLA for 40 years and sabotage. If we field the veterans again, which was piloted by Tulsi Silavat’s Supreme Court intervention for desta- have never lost an election. Even when the rebels may get disillusioned and ministry—investigated? bilising an incumbent government on Heartland the BJP had only two seats in start working against the BJP,” says a Nath has, for now, said he would stick the ground that it had lost confidence Parliament, I had won my assembly senior BJP leader. to state politics and ensure that the was sought. Nath’s time ran out. seat. I am not in politics for power but “welfare schemes started by our gov- There is no denying that for the cri- I hope the party will keep my record in ernment are continued by the BJP” sis-hit Congress, the loss of its govern- mind to decide what responsibility I and that steps taken by the new gov- ment in MP—and frontline leader Heartburn should get,” Bhargava tells Outlook. ernment out of political vendetta will Jyotiraditya—is a twin blow. Yet, Caught between aspirations of loyalists and new entrants, Chouhan may be able to hold off be resisted. Congress sources say the within the party’s state leadership, the Jyotiraditya’s pressure for ministerial party also plans to launch a campaign heartburn over losing hard-earned Shivraj Chouhan will have to walk the tightrope as he berths for his loyalists on the ground soon to inform the electorate of “the power aside, there are also muffled assumes charge as MP chief minister that they must spend the next few good work that the Nath government whispers about the “possible long- months in their constituencies to did in 15 months and how the BJP used term benefits” of the loss. Likewise, explain to their voters the reasons for money and muscle to topple the gov- within the BJP, under the loud cheers eclipsing their own political mobility. Can Chouhan accommodate all of quitting the Congress. The 22 legisla- ernment”. Much of the responsibility of victory, there is disquiet over the Now, he will have to tread more cau- them with cabinet berths? Of these tors have resigned from the state of reviving the Congress now, say “many compromises” that Chouhan tiously because his party heavyweights former ministers, at least four are from assembly and bypolls will be held for sources, will lie on Digvijaya Singh, and the party may be forced to make from the Gwalior-Chambal region— the Gwalior-Chambal region. If their constituencies over the next six whose area of political influence and how difficult it may be for the lead- some of whom are his rivals—will not Chouhan brings them into the cabinet, months. Besides these 22 seats, there includes the Gwalior region. ership to “strike a balance between old want to play second fiddle to can he ignore ministerial berths to the were also vacancies in the Vidhan Irrespective of what may become of loyalists and new entrants.” The com- Jyotiraditya,” says Bhopal-based polit- BJP veterans including Jyotiraditya’s Sabha on account of the death of two the Congress’s plans, Chouhan’s mon factor between these myriad feel- ical commentator Rakesh Dixit. aunt, Yashodhara Raje Scindia, who elected BJP members. Chouhan’s second coming is not expected to be as ings is Jyotiraditya. The chief minister’s immediate chal- held important portfolios in the earlier In the Vidhan Sabha, the BJP cur- immediate smooth as his earlier chief ministerial “For Chouhan, the real test begins lenge will be in forming his council of Chouhan government and represent rently has 107 MLAs while the stint which continued uninterrupted now. During nearly 13 years that he ministers. Six of the 22 Congress the Gwalior-Chambal division? Even Congress, which had won 114 seats in challenge will be for nearly 13 years despite personal was chief minister before 2018, he had rebels who helped topple the Congress when machinations were still on to 2018, is left with 92 members after the to form his allegations of his alleged involvement managed to rein in dissenters within government and are now in the BJP topple Nath’s government, BJP vet- resignation of the 22 rebels. The cur- in the Vyapam scam and the state’s the state BJP who saw his popularity were cabinet ministers under Nath. eran Narottam Mishra, sources say, rent half-way mark of 103 seats gives new ministry. thriving sand mining mafia. O
16 OUTLOOK | APRIL 6, 2020 OUTLOOKINDIA.COM APRIL 6, 2020 | OUTLOOK 17 ANNIE ZAIDI IS A MUMBAI-BASED WRITER OF ESSAYS, REPORTAGE, OPINION/ Annie Zaidi STORIES, POEMS AND PLAYS
JITENDER GUPTA
Justice relayed Citizens exult in front of Our Violating Society Delhi’s Tihar jail after the executions A screed of horrific rapes; a litany of justice miscarried. More than deterred through his torture and incarceration? the closure offered by executions, society needs an overhaul. In 2017, India was reporting 92 rapes a day. Rape is discussed in newspapers and on TV often because it is clubbed with murder and torture, and grave often make lists. Words, lined up badly mutilated. Reports mention ‘intestines’, like in the Nirbhaya case. familial betrayals. Men have raped sis- neatly on a page, add up to some- Death sentence. ters and nieces. The rape and torture of thing—meaning, or purpose. 2016: Delta Meghwal’s body was found in a water tank. She lived in a hos- men in custody barely make the news. Is I Some lists, however, add up to tel and had supposedly informed her parents about being raped by a PT it because that kind of crime is not ‘rare’, numb horror. Sample this: teacher. Police allegedly took away her body in a municipal garbage vehi- or do we not view it as crime at all? And if cle. Three men booked for abetment of suicide, not for rape or murder. it can deter perpetrators, then why do we 2013 College student. Abducted while 2019: Six-year-old in Tonk raped and strangulated with her own school not hear loud demands for the death she was walking home, gangraped in a uniform belt. penalty after riots or pogroms? factory. They slit her throat after tear- 2019: In Bharatpur, eight men arrested for killing an eight-year-old boy. We sort of know. Police, judiciary, ing her up between her legs, up to her They tried to rape the child’s mother, who is disabled. The child had tried politicians are human. At their best, navel. They called it the Kamduni to protect her. prone to prejudice and egotism; at rape case. 2019: Woman set on fire while she was on her way to testify against her their worst, rapists and torturers. We Nine men accused. Death to three; rapists. The case was from Unnao, but it cannot be called the Unnao rape would do well to remember how rac- life sentences for three; two acquitted. case because there’s more than one. ism has coloured law enforcement in One died during the trial. In the other case, an MLA was the accused rapist. The victim’s father the global west. The case of the 2014: More than one case from died after being taken into police custody. Ultimately, the victim herself ‘Central Park Five’ in the US is warn- Badaun has made headlines, so they was in a suspicious road accident that nearly killed her. The MLA got ten reports. Some of those ‘rarest of rare’ crimes were undertaken after the ing enough. Five teenage boys were call it the ‘Badaun sisters’ case. Two years for rape. accused in the Nirbhaya case were arrested, and people were baying for accused of raping a white woman in teenage girls strung up on a tree. Post Which crime was rarer, which more hor- blood. A death sentence was almost a foregone conclusion. Yet, the rarest mortem report initially said rape and rific? We can’t be certain, but we can of rare crimes recurred. Individually, and in gangs, men emulated the tor- death from ‘strangulation while still wager a guess about who will be executed tures they heard of during media coverage of the Nirbhaya case. One thing alive’. CBI report later said, no rape. Individually, based on how much property they own, was different though: they made sure to kill the victims. If it can deter Three men arrested, granted bail. (In individually and collectively; local caste In Uttar Pradesh, a 2019 report mentions five incidents where rape vic- the other Badaun case, the victim and in gangs, equations; the investigating officers’ integ- tims were burnt. Unnao, Fatehpur, Chitrakoot, Sambhal. In Bihar, a perpetrators, struggled to get the police to file a rity. Consider the 2018 Kathua case. 16-year-old’s body was found with the head hacked off and burnt with report, then killed herself) men emulated Eight-year-old Asifa was abducted, raped, acid, making identification difficult. The police called it an honour killing, why no 2014: The Sowmya case. Fatal head tortures they killed inside a temple. Seven men were but there were protests from people who allege a faulty probe. In demands for injuries. Thrown off a train and arrested, four of them police officers. Telangana, a veterinarian was gangraped, killed, the body burnt. raped. The accused, a history heard of during Nobody got the death penalty. Investigations were not even concluded, when the police shot the accused the death sheeter, was sentenced to death, but coverage of the Which aspect of this case was most hei- dead in an ‘encounter’, after the men supposedly tried to flee. We are penalty after commuted to life imprisonment by nous? The child’s age? The venue of the expected to simply trust the police version of events. the Supreme Court. Nirbhaya case. crime? The fact that several people actu- Let’s recall the Ayesha Miran case then. In 2007, in Vijaywada, a 19-year- riots? 2014: Esther Anusuya. Raped, ally took out rallies in support of the old student was raped and murdered in her hostel bathroom. A man called murdered, body burnt. Accused accused? Or the fact that policemen had Satyam Babu was arrested. He was accused of fleeing from police custody, was sentenced to death. conspired and they got only five years. but was quickly ‘apprehended’. A lower court sentenced him to fourteen 2015: Man accused of raping a five- We like to believe that justice is served when a murderer goes to the gal- years imprisonment, even though he had a disease that didn’t allow him 1989, beating her badly and leaving year-old child. He was the victim’s lows. Death offers closure. It also shields us from the awful truth that a to walk properly. He alleged third degree torture, and had to be carried her for dead. In 2002, all five were neighbour. The Supreme Court com- society where such crimes happen with alarming regularity is broken, and into court hearings. Even the victim’s family wasn’t persuaded; they said exonerated, after the actual rapist muted the death sentence to life. requires a drastic overhaul. We experienced it as broken in 2012, when that the police had implicated Babu in order to shield another man, who confessed. 2015: Woman abducted, gangraped in details of the Nirbhaya case emerged. The masses roared on the streets, was politically connected. That we are in a hurry to take a life Haryana. Stones, blades, sticks forced demanding that something get fixed. The accused were arrested, and In 2017, a High Court judgment acquitted Babu, and awarded compensa- because we believe a man guilty does inside her. Seven men sentenced to seven years later, have been executed. tion for having imprisoned him for eight years. The CBI was ordered to not say much about our thirst for jus- death. The eighth was a minor. One Someone mentioned videos. I didn’t want to look. I didn’t want any more investigate. In 2019, a news report suggested that the politically con- tice. It might say something about us killed himself. detail about those men. Already, I find it hard to forget that they were des- nected person was interrogated. Not arrested. Not given the third degree. being in denial about our own limita- 2015. Manipur court sentenced some- perate to stay alive, filing appeal after appeal. I confess, I don’t know what Definitely not taken to a spot that was neither his home nor a police tions. We are not God. We cannot bring one to death for raping and murdering they deserved. Fourteen, twenty-five or fifty years does not seem to balance station, where he might do something that would require someone to anyone back to life. And if the idea of a four-year-old. the scales of justice. But it is also true that I feel neither relief nor cheer. I shoot him in self-defence. executing the innocent does not appall 2016: The Jisha case. Law student feel weary, and much, much more afraid than I was in 2012. What if Babu had been given the death penalty or was ‘encountered’ by us, there is very little left to say. O killed inside her own home, her body The cases I’ve mentioned above are a tiny selection from English press the police during his alleged escape bid? And how many rapists were (The author’s views are personal)
18 OUTLOOK | APRIL 6, 2020 OUTLOOKINDIA.COM APRIL 6, 2020 | OUTLOOK 19 COVER STORY ECOVID-19 Lola Nayar and Jyotika Sood LOCKDOWN
CALCUTTA SANDIPAN CHATTERJEE COVER STORY ECOVID-19 LOCKDOWN
NEW DELHI KANPUR
JITENDER GUPTA PTI
By March 11, 2020, when the WHO declared COVID-19 as a from 8.5 per cent to 6.5 per cent. But this time, given the affected sectors, expect higher corpo- According to one of the various assess- pandemic, its impact was being felt across the globe, by the 7.8 pre-existing economic slowdown on which the COVID-19 cri- rate layoffs and bankruptcies through- ment studies, major European econo- billion humans living on the planet. With an overwhelming sis is acting, the fears are of GDP growth falling below 4 per out 2020, feeding a self-reinforcing mies will experience dislocations as majority of them in no position to help themselves. India has cent—officially. To put India in perspective, the overall global downward spiral. The financial system the virus spreads and countries adopt not evolved to a stage where those ratios—of humanity feeling economic health is itself expected to be hit—especially in will suffer significant distress too, but restrictive responses that curb manu- the pain—can be assuaged by the State in any appreciable countries that depend on exports, tourism and other services a full-scale banking crisis will most facturing activity at regional hubs, manner. In an evolving crisis, when no one is able to say for sectors, some worse than others. likely be averted because of the strong including in northern Italy. The UN sure when it will be contained and what its long-term impact There’s one crucial difference, though. The biggest saving capitalisation and the macroprudential projects that foreign direct investment could be, the stress will be placed unequally on the individual grace has been technology—the internet and telecommunica- supervision now in place. (In simple lan- flows could fall between 5 and 15 per cent and society, and on the government—which takes the respon- tion—that is enabling a lot of people to be working around the guage: don’t run on the banks.) Yet, our fis- to their lowest levels since the 2008-2009 sibility for anticipating risk and putting in the structural buff- globe without compromising or running a risk to their own cal and monetary policy responses may prove global financial crisis. ers. And the structural risk, which affects everyone, is as and other people’s health in their pursuit to keep working and insufficient to break the downward spiral. At the sector levels, tourism and travel-related economic as it is biological. the economy ticking. Especially given that the global economic impact is industries will be among the hardest hit. Also, social India has the recent experience of demonetisation: a sud- Still, that’s only a buffer. A lot of our economic life still severe, expected to exceed the 2008 crisis on scale. Also forms of consuming art/culture/entertainment. The Inter den, unannounced alteration to our basic economic grammar. unfolds offline. That’s why someone like Madan Sabnavis, expect the GDP to contract significantly in most major econo- national Air Transport Association warns that COVID-19 Globally, many are drawing parallels with the financial crisis chief economist at CARE Ratings, feels the impact will be mies in 2020, and for any sign of recovery to begin only in Q2 could cost global air carriers between $63 billion and $113 bil- of 2008 and the Great Depression in the 1930s. The present stark: COVID-19 has already affected several nations, includ- 2021—a year from now. lion in revenue in 2020, and the international film market IMF chief, Kristalina Georgieva, is only the second woman to ing the main drivers of world economy—the US and Europe, “As a best-case scenario,” says Viswanathan Rajendran, part- could lose over $5 billion in lower box-office sales. Thank pre- be in that position—at a time when the IMF chief economist China and Japan. “It does look like that growth for 2020 could ner, global management consultant Kearney, “a lot of busi- vious governments for the information connectivity back- too is an Indian woman, Gita Gopinath. Which is appropriate be in the region of 1 per cent—from the 2.25 per cent expected nesses are hoping for a V-shaped economic recovery—a sharp bone on which you consume content on YouTube and OTT because the effects of most economic crises are unequally earlier, going by the way the virus has spread, affecting global decline, followed by an equally sharp recovery, once restric- platforms like Netflix and Amazon. borne by women. Our “financial systems are more resilient output and trade in both goods and services,” says Sabnavis. tions are relaxed.” But there’s a caveat. “One of the scenarios But before clicking the play button on your favourite web now,” Georgieva said, to assuage anxieties, comparing it to Going by experience, adds Georgieva, about one-third of the we are looking at is also a much more prolonged slowdown, series, contemplate the world—and India. Even before this 2008. But, given that no one is sure how long the crisis will last economic losses will be direct costs: from loss of life, work- driven by a longer phase of restrictions.” crisis, the global economy had been faced with mounting or unfold, even she found it necessary to say: “Under any sce- place closures and quarantines. The remaining two-thirds will There are studies now that indicate the virus could poten- structural challenges with total global debt reaching $188 tril- nario, the global growth in 2020 will drop below last year’s be indirect, reflecting a retrenchment in consumer confidence tially come back again in communities that have “flattened lion at the end of 2018, up by $3 trillion from just 2017. Says level. How far it will fall, and for how long, is difficult to pre- and business behaviour and a tightening in financial markets. the curve” and then relaxed restrictions, potentially needing Ajay Sahai, director general & CEO at Federation of Indian dict, and would depend on the epidemic, but also on the time- Which means an economic effect enduring way beyond the governments to impose multiple waves of lockdowns till a Exports Organisation (FIEO): “We’re already seeing disrup- liness and effectiveness of our actions.” lockdown, or the immediate health emergency. Demand will vaccine is discovered. In such a scenario, we are potentially tions in global trade, global economy and Indian exports. As India’s internal buffers ensured that it was not too affected suffer as consumers cut spending throughout the year, as even looking at an economic impact lasting for 12-18 months, which per a rough estimate, roughly 30 per cent of orders have been by the financial crisis of 2008, even if our GDP growth slipped McKinsey agreed in an assessment on March 16. In the most is the earliest timeframe expected for a potential vaccine. put on hold. And we expect that 50 per cent of that may not
22 OUTLOOK | APRIL 6, 2020 OUTLOOKINDIA.COM APRIL 6, 2020 | OUTLOOK 23 COVER STORY ECOVID-19 LOCKDOWN
materialise subsequently.” As of now, the shipping, tourism, hotels, restaurants, travel agency portals future. Much depends on how long the crisis stretches. Even situation is extremely bad for labour-in- et al. In manufacturing, supply chains, especially for auto, the usual data-backed analysis is cramped for space, and we tensive sectors because they are heavily MUMBAI electronics, engineering, chemicals, metals, would be af- will need to wait for future economic historians for a final dependent on exports to advanced econ- fected for sure. Recovery too will be phased out: it will start tally. At the present moment, “this crisis is disturbing how all omies of Europe and North America. with services and only then, gradually, move over to the the economic activity is conducted,” says Bhanumurthy. “The And both are going through a tough manufacturing sector. impact is going to be across the board. Now we have to wait phase. Think leather footwear, apparel, Dr Sachin Chaturvedi, director general at the Research and and watch how the India story is going to play out. We will handicraft, carpets…and the countless Information System for Developing Countries (RIS), points know only after this lockdown period...... ” workers and specialised artisans de- to the larger global picture that is emerging. Given the dis- We will have abundant leisure to count our losses later.
pendent on it. ruption in China, its ability to supply SANDIPAN CHATTERJEE Profits? Well, humans have invested The first lockdown order that related goods is expected to be hit by 2.5-4.7 in and profited from various forms of to 75 districts had already covered pro- per cent. And it could get worse if the social misery. But staying alive and duction hubs like Varanasi, Ludhiana, current situation continues. There viable in tough times is a natural Erode, Chennai and Mumbai among are expectations that China could instinct. An overall economic shock others. But when Prime Minister Modi emerge out of all of this only by April obviously means millions of individ- announced at 8 pm on March 24 that 15. Many countries, like the US, ual repercussions, many of them “every state, every district, every lane, Australia and the EU nations, which drastic: loss of jobs and earnings, and every village will be under lockdown” for depended on China for many of their temporary shortages of several prod- 21 days, those were words that could af- essential supplies, are now pushing ucts and services. At the same time, fect lifetimes. “This is going to hit the domestic industries to help reduce the crisis will test, at least in the short MSMEs in particular as they will be bur- import dependence. India too iws and medium term, the ability of indi- dened by fixed costs without business, looking at improving its own supply viduals to think in terms of savings putting a lot of pressure on them. A lines. That will especially be the case and investments. Will this bring tough aspect is that they are supposed to with medical devices and pharma- about a philosophical change in how pay wages to the workers, who will oth- ceutical products, given the new people approach their lives? If there erwise be in a difficult situation. I don’t plans for setting up special zones and are interim income losses, will sav- know whether they will have enough switching to productivity-linked ings and investments rise? And can liquidity to sail through the crisis,” Sahai incentives. So there will be some that make up? At present, the answer told Outlook. The human effect? As NYT concentrated buzz there. to the last one seems to be a huge ‘No’. reported: “Long lines of migrant wokers This is one of those rare, and horrify- streamed out of recently closed railway UT make no mistake. The sce- ing, situations when all asset catego- stations, with thousands of men, almost nario is particularly challeng- ries are down. Globally, stockmarkets none wearing masks, marching close ing for developing countries have crashed by a third, or more. together to far-off villages, potentially Blike India, which do not have effi- Ditto with India. We are already into spreading the virus deep into the cient public health systems, a real estate slump that has lasted for countryside.” response capacity or social security. a few years—2020 was supposed to be A recent IMF paper projects that the But the seeds of a recovery are the turnaround! After coronavirus, it growth decline would be extremely always embedded within a crisis. seems like realty will be down for the sharp, with a huge rise in global unem- “Looking at the economy globally, next several quarters. The indices will ployment, an almost 9 per cent expan- this is definitely a strenuous phase stay at home. sion, mostly in the informal sector and millions of jobs are going to be How should investors think about across the globe, more so in developing affected. Nonetheless, history has this moment? Well, the extreme vola- countries like India. Think millions of enough examples to demonstrate tility in commodities and crude oil can daily-wagers, small entrepreneurs, that after a time of economic diffi- be both helpful and stressful to nations. rehriwallahs—sabzi is essential service, culty, industry and countries have But for investors, even the professional but not pakoda, samosa, bhelpuri, chana, always bounced back,” says Prof Janat ones, it is risky as the price swings are bade ka tikka, cut fruit and the hundreds Shah, director, IIM Udaipur. We need to huge, and one doesn’t know when the tide of other things you take for granted. And be prepared for the recovery, and remember may change within a few hours, or because of self-employed carpenters, plumbers, car the vital lessons learnt, he says, with fundamen- one event. Everyone initially felt that bullion, or mechanics, and small shops that would tal changes that need to be made in how we rather gold, would be the safe place to park one’s have been buzzing in a week from now approach health, in India as well as globally. A simple but money. Initially, gold prices zoomed, which indicated the with orders to clean ACs, and the rest of enduring aphorism from him: “We cannot expect economic truth of such a belief. However, in the past few weeks, gold it. You, as a member of the elite or mid- growth if public healthcare is kept on the backburner”. prices have come down by 10 per cent. One isn’t sure if it is dle class, may manage to survive on good Calling COVID-19 the biggest global issue after the Great safe. More importantly, how much gold can one buy? In the WiFi bandwidth and WFH. Down the Depression, with all of 165 countries affected, N.R. following series of articles, we talk about the impact of the class pyramid, things will be way more Bhanumurthy, professor at the National Institute of Public coronavirus on different asset categories, as also the invest- desperate. Finance and Policy, points out that the impacts on both the ment strategies that can help you safeguard your principal, if Then there’s the formal sector, which global and Indian economy are still evolving. Only the disrup- not help you earn profits, and also keep your financial head gets counted. The biggest challenges tions have started, he says, and at this stage it is going to be above the turbulent waters. And also, plenty scope to think here would be for services: aviation, very difficult to predict anything very concretely about the about the human fundamentals that gird all of that. PTI
24 OUTLOOK | APRIL 6, 2020 OUTLOOKINDIA.COM APRIL 6, 2020 | OUTLOOK 25 COVER STORY EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, ECOVID-19 OPINION/ THE ENERGY FORUM, AND INVESTORS SHREERUPA MITRA ENERGY EXPERT AT HPCL
Yagnesh Kansara in Mumbai
TOCK markets across the globe Slippery as Oil have been bleeding post-Val- entine’s Day, since the outbreak COVID-19 has infected crude oil producing countries in more ways Sof the COVID-19 contagion assumed dangerous proportions. And everyone than one, threatening economies of some politically fickle states associated with the markets have been forced to undergo quarantine in terms of their investment. With the COV- ID-19 outbreak declared a pandemic by 5 will be marked in red chained in sanctions. Also, Riyadh has the lowest cost of producing oil at the World Health Organization (WHO), MARCH in crude chronicles. $8.98 per barrel and can sustain itself on very low prices for a long time. panic gripped financial markets, That day, a carefully- Irrespective of any clever calculus that Riyadh may make, the carnage including in India, where the bench- seamed pact to cut of the war will be daunting if prices fall below $25 for a sustained period, marks have shed in excess of 37 per cent global oil supply—between rivals Saudi prompting a fiscal-runaway budget given the kingdom’s ambitious Vision in only 25 trading sessions. This works Arabia and Russia, among other produc- 2030 plan and one-commodity-dependent economy. Russia, with a diversi- out to be a fall of 1.48 per cent on an ers—was torn apart. Its demise kick- fied economy has $50 bn in emergency reserve funds, which Kremlin claims average a day in the past five weeks. started a war between the US, Saudi can sustain it for seven years if prices remain at $30. A slip below that will All the leading global benchmark indi- Arabia and Russia that threatens to col- pinch. The Middle East petro states, which witnessed protests for the lack ces of Nikkei, Hang Sang, Dax, CAC, AP lapse prices to unprecedented levels. of investment in the social sector, are sitting on ruinous circumstances. FTSE, DJIA have been bleeding pro- Such a scramble for market share has The question is: how low can prices fall fusely. Back home, Indian benchmarks, been seen before. However, this time before the producers devise a face-saving Nifty and S&P Sensex, have also lost From Valentine two black swans twist the tale into method? A $10-barrel is a possibility with 37.15 per cent and 37.02 per cent unprecedented, and menacing, territory. global storages quickly filling up. The earli- respectively as on March 23, in 25 ses- Unlike earlier, there are no swing pro- est ramp down could be in the June OPEC+ sions beginning February 13, 2020. ducers today with a discretionary grip ministerial meeting, which could see crea- The severity of the panic is that in less to Quarantine to swerve supplies. In addition, demand tive solutions. than a week’s time benchmark indices destruction due to COVID-19 shows a US President Donald Trump will in India have hit circuit-breakers. The Indian bourses tanked over 37% in 25 sessions amidst massive silhouette across collapsing initially rake in windfalls through lower bourses have clocked alarming level of consuming centres, like Europe and the prices. However, a less-than-$30 price will trading volume and dramatic rise in the sharp jump in trading volume and turnover US. The International Energy Agency set off alarms through the shale oil patch, turnover. The trading volume (number (IEA) has three demand cases: a base the impacts of which will ricochet to other of shares traded) of Nifty during the break, it is difficult to assess the extent navirus and the, still as yet unascer- case where the virus’ impact lasts till industries. Trump can ill-afford this in an period has risen from 62.35 crore of impact completely. That said, FY21 tained, damage to the global economy March, a low one where it spills into the election year. In an unprecedented move, shares to 107.23 crore. This indicates earnings estimates are expected to be and also to India especially, coming on second quarter, and a high one where it OPEC, reportedly, has held talks with US a rise of 72 per cent. During the same downgraded anywhere between 10-20 the back of an already slow economic extends beyond. Oil markets are skit- shale producers and a government entity period, the average daily Nifty turnover per cent vis-à-vis estimates at the end growth of 4.7 per cent in Q3FY20. The tish with plunging demand and a supply Two black swans about co-ordinated cuts to oil output to has risen 44.38 per cent, from Rs of the December quarter.” difference in this market scenario is overhang of about 3.5 million barrels twist the tale of prop up prices. 20,760 crore to Rs 37,321 crore. What that there is a definite recovery point per day (mb/d) in the first quarter. The OPEC group may decide to plod is a more worrying fact is that the Way ahead for investors for which investors can look out for. A There are three price-bands to play the ongoing crude through production cuts without Russia. broader index Nifty-500 and BSE-500 Investors would do well to note that slowing growth rate in new infections around with, given the emerging sce- But the efficacy of this deal is open to ques- have lost more value than benchmark the markets have historically faced around the world, or especially in the nario: a low one with $20 or less a barrel, price slump into tion given the state of its frayed members, indices. Both these measures have lost such situations and, more importantly, developed nations, could be a trigger a bounce-back to about $50, or a high of unprecedented, like Venezuela and Iran. Assuming that 37.33 per cent and 37.72 per cent recovered from it, albeit over varying for the market recovery. $80 or more. In the short-term, low OPEC+ alliance, with the US in the loop, respectively during the period. time periods. If it was a banking crisis Chinese infections have dropped off prices will be the norm as crude negoti- and menacing, manages to stitch a new deal or extend the Ankur Maheshwari, CEO, Equirus in 2008, now it is due to the novel coro- while the infection rate in other coun- ates a free, unconstrained market. Saudi territory. old one, prices may snap back to around Wealth says, “COVID-19 has disrupted tries seems to be following the same Arabia has vowed to pump 12.3 mb/d, $50 end of the year—provided the virus economic activity in multiple ways. trajectory. We will reach a point when and Russia could ramp up to 500,000 wanes over the next two months. With what started in China largely as that rate starts tapering off, and that b/d. Other oil producers may follow suit. A price of $80 is the most improbable scenario, given the prolific advent supply chain disruption, given that it is A slowing would be a good indication that the Riyadh slashed its official selling prices of US shale. This can be triggered only from severe supply shocks—for a manufacturing hub for many firms growth rate in new virus threat is being controlled. The drastically, particularly for the US and instance, in the event of a war in the Middle East. A sharp escalation of hos- across the globe, the economic impact sharpness of the recovery would Europe, although the Asian premiums tilities is unlikely in the near future, given the elections in Iran and the US, has now spread to more than 100+ infections around depend on how fast the threat recedes remain intact. Freight fares soared as and an ongoing re-calibration of power structures in the Middle East. countries. Domestically too, almost all the world, especially and how fast the global economy is Saudi crude set sail to capture the Recently, the US carried out strikes against weapons facilities belonging sectors have got impaired in varying expected to get back on track. Long- Russian market. Though the kingdom to Kataib Hezbollah, an Iran-backed militia group based in Iraq. Such degrees owing to disruption in eco- in developed nations, term investors would do well to buy needs $83 a barrel to balance its budget, proxy wars, which also involve the Islamic State terrorist group, may nomic activity and 4QFY20 earnings could be a trigger into the extreme bouts of volatility that it has drawn plans for $12 and $20 sce- increase after 2021, and impact oil prices. Price wars usually have a will be severely impacted. Given that for market we may witness and ensure to accumu- narios. But it can rely on external loans, stimulating impact but the current blip in demand-supply graph eludes we are still in midst of COVID-19 out- recovery. late quality stocks during this period. O unlike Moscow whose economy is precedence. It is a bad time for ego games. (Views are personal.)
26 OUTLOOK | APRIL 6, 2020 OUTLOOKINDIA.COM APRIL 6, 2020 | OUTLOOK 27 COVER STORY ECOVID-19 BANKING
the economy. pected to be presented in Parliament So where should people invest in during the current session, but has these times? According to Rohit been delayed because of Yes Bank and Khandelwal, managing director of other issues. Moneymatters, given the volatility in The proposed bill has a provision that the gold and silver market, people wish if any bank fails, it will not be bailed out. to sit on cash rather than invest in com- Instead, a part of the depositors’ money modity, shares or real estate. Devan would be appropriated or kept on hold Choksey, managing director of K.R. and turned into equity for restoring the Choksey Investment Managers Private banking operations. Currently, the gov- Limited, says, “I think the RBI and the ernment cannot afford to allow even a government are handling the crisis in small bank to fail. As the RBI governor Duty Under the banking system very well. I don’t has stated, the position of Federal Bank Lockdown think they will let any investor or is improving. In fact, it is among the Banks keep their depositors suffer. It is a different issue better managed banks. What is worry- operations going that depositors have had to suffer some ing at this juncture is that NRI remit- with minimal anxiety in the case of Yes Bank, but tances to it have actually declined, staff there is no reason for them to lose faith which may lead to some constraints. in the banking system or the govern- But, as far as Federal Bank loans and ment, which have been alert in taking advances are concerned, there is no timely steps.” cause for concern as they are all very Some corporate lending is needed, carefully given. because you cannot expect growth without that. “What is worrying about N face of the deteriorating the banking sector is that in the wake of financial environment, if mergers and failures of banks, the num- bank lending starts to get too ber of branches of merged entities are “Iprudent, then bank customers may coming down, particularly in the rural start to move to NBFCs (non-banking PHOTOGRAPH: PTI areas,” says D.T. Franco, general secre- financial companies) as an alternative,” tary of the All India Bank Officers says Sanjay Sharma, managing director tors, all of which have bearing on the from 32.4 per cent in the last fiscal Confederation. “As lending rates are and founder, Aye Finance. “At the same likelihood of frauds. A score of 41-54 to 30.1 per cent in the current. quite low, the spread is becoming thin- time, it is possible that some of the The BanksAre means least vulnerability, while 0-15 Households contribute about 60 per ner. So I don’t expect lending rates to weaker NBFCs may have to merge indicates high vulnerability. cent of the country’s savings. A falling come down further.” with stronger NBFCs or with banks.” But can such due diligence help in rate could lead to companies borrow- Are the government actions adequate In this crisis, according to Sharma, the averting more debacles of the PMC ing more from overseas markets, to support these banks? As of today, NBFCs would be best served if their and Yes Bank kind, especially when weakening India’s external position as there is nothing to be worried. No bank borrowers stay financially healthy. To Alright. Sort Of such information is not in the public it would raise the country’s external will be allowed to fail unless they bring enable this, the first step is to allow the domain? More importantly, how does debt. With lockdowns and companies in the Financial Sector Development NBFCs to offer deferment of their one strengthen public trust in banks? announcing pay cuts, the economy is and Regulation (FSDR) Bill, 2019, instalments or repayments to help bor- Debacles like Yes Bank reveal its weak spots, but the Should people put their money in the heading towards an uncertain crisis. which has been circulated to a limited rowers tide over the peak impact of the system is neither broke nor broken. And it may get better. banks, or hoard it as cash? The “Covid-19 has come at a time when number of people. It is being brought challenges. These deferred instalments NABARD official says such compliance our economy is on a weak footing with in place of the Financial Resolution should not be classified as impaired reports are an internal matter and are the GDP slowdown. But, although the and Deposit Insurance draft bill, which loans, else the NBFC books themselves This issue of circular divergence in always in the notice of the regulator. next few quarters look tough, there is was withdrawn. The new bill was ex- will be marred despite having good Jyotika Sood and Lola Nayar NPA classification was elaborated just a Making them public could cause mar- no recession in India,” says Siddharth long-term assets. week before the Yes Bank moratorium. ket chaos and panic. But then, how can Mehta, Founder & CIO, Bay Capital. Secondly, the government should sig- According to NABARD officials, they the public trust the banks or the regula- Recession refers to negative growth in nificantly lower the interest rates of N February 27, NABARD’s chief have become extra cautious since the tor without access to these reports? economic activity for at least two debt markets to improve the net inter- general manager K.S. Raghu- Punjab and Maharashtra Cooperative “I agree that the IL&FS case could simultaneous quarters, which may hap- est margins of new-age NBFCs—this pathi wrote, “It is observed that Bank debacle. They don’t want a similar have been handled better and what is pen in the US, whereas what we are see- will help them manage the situation Odespite the divergence being pointed episode, and inspection teams are extra happening is taking a toll. But the fact ing in India is just a deceleration of better. Thirdly, to facilitate improved out in the IRs (inspection reports)... vigilant. “As the primary responsibility is this clean-up just had to happen,” growth. Long-term investors need to transmission of funds to good borrow- and despite the accounts continuing to to contain frauds lies with the con- says a senior finance ministry official. keep in mind that India won’t experi- ers, the facility to do online KYC remain non-performing at the end of cerned bank, we issued a fraud vulnera- The worry, he adds, is declining ence recession, and could, in fact, be far validation through Aadhaar should be the next financial year, some bank/stat- bility index (VINFRA) of banks on savings, which the government has better positioned three years later than immediately reinstated. In such times, utory auditors have not been ensuring February 6,” says a senior official, add- ignored at the cost of growth. Coupled it is today. Mehta adds that although fis- it is absolutely important to remove proper classification of such assets ing that the 27-point index tries to cap- with coronavirus and lockdowns, there cal room is limited, these are extraordi- all the friction in the processes to allow while finalising the books of accounts ture policies and their implementation, is a much bigger crisis India is staring nary times that call for extraordinary focus on good credit assessment as at the end of the next financial year.” control, systems and problem indica- at. India’s gross savings rate dropped measures to protect the downside to instead of routine operational items. O
28 OUTLOOK | APRIL 6, 2020 OUTLOOKINDIA.COM APRIL 6, 2020 | OUTLOOK 29 AVP, FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCH (COMMODITIES), SHAREKHAN ASSOCIATE EDITOR, OUTLOOK COVER STORY: OPINION/ Praveen Singh BY BNP PARIBAS COVER STORY/OPINION/ ANUPAM BORDOLOI Mostly a Bear Run The Deadlier Virus Copper, aluminium and nickel are going down as the pandemic Racism against people from the Northeast is part ravages the world economy, while gold is unable to hold its gains of India’s ‘constitution’
its tragic health down. Although the US economy is still doing well, it won’t be long before is a deadly virus. A The inherent racism among Indians—against even other Indians—shows BESIDES consequences, data start showing a sharp deterioration. The LME cash-to-3-month RACISM global scourge that up often. Even inadvertently. Like a tweet by Ashok Swain, whose bio says he COVID-19’s impact spread (difference between 3-month forward price and spot price) of the has no known cures is a Professor of Peace and Conflict Research at Uppsala University in on the global econ- metal is weak and doesn’t betray any signs of a tight supply. Currently yet. Its manifesta- Sweden. He faced a backlash, mostly from Northeasterners, when he tried to omy will be far-reaching. Monetary trading at around $4,800, the red metal can fall another 10-15 per cent. tions are ugly, even fatal. And who would compare “exotic” Chinese food habits with “Frogs in Sikkim & Goa, Red Ants and fiscal stimulus have their own lim- Although lower crude oil prices act as a stimulus for the global economy, know that better in independent India Chutney in Chhattisgarh 3. Snail stew, steamed hornet larvae in Nagaland 4. itations in fixing a worldwide medical lower production cost and demand concerns due to the contagion portray a than a native of the Northeast—that part Dog meat in Nagaland, Mizoram & Manipur 5. Pig Brain in Meghalaya 6. problem. Despite the major central bearish picture for aluminium, an energy intensive product. The metal has which is still mysterious and exotic for Silkworm curry in Assam”. A rough ethnography that ended up, doubtless in- bankers adopting loose monetary poli- fallen nearly 15 per cent in past two months. The OECD, IMF and World many of their countrymen. It’s not famil- advertently, appearing even more racist. So widespread have been such ins cies, the IMF and World Bank offering Bank have slashed their estimates for global iarity which breeds contempt here—it’s tances that political leaders of the Northeast have often appealed to the monetary help to affected countries PTI growth rates sharply. LME cash-to-3-month the lack of a capacity to be familial. An Centre to take harsh action against these racist attacks. A small irony there. and talk of coordination between spread of the metal remains in a wide con- outright refusal by “mainland India” to Northeasters who live across different major economies, we are seeing that tango of $23. The outlook is deteriorating as see beyond its nose, to truly understand cities of India, for work or study, face such risk assets are simply unable to find US automakers close their plants and trou- and appreciate anything beyond what it racism almost daily. Sometimes even the bottom. bles mount for airplane manufacturers. already thinks and knows. Here, they are ending in tragedies. Like the case of Nido Safe haven assets like gold, Japanese Suppliers of processed aluminium are re- presented with a diverse people, with Tania from Arunachal Pradesh, who died Yen and the US treasuries have rallied portedly selling their product at a zero pre- diverse cultures, languages and food after he was assaulted in Delhi’s Lajpat sharply during this time of distress. mium to the raw metal as they want cash. habits, with one commonality: that for Nagar in January 2014, following an alt However, unlike treasuries, gold hasn’t Shanghai inventories continue to rise all of them, their home is not a remote ercation over his hairstyle. He was 19. The been able to hold its gains. Currently, it sharply. The virus peak impact remains a big corner of a huge country, but the centre death led to the creation of a Special is trading at a price of $1,490/Oz, lower unknown. Considering all the factors, we are of their universe. Police Unit for the North East Region than what it was before the surfacing bearish on aluminium, which needs large But racism is a global pandemic, and (SPUNER) in Delhi, and a dedicated of coronavirus. It surged past $1,700/ production cuts to steady itself. also a local one. Taunts, abuses and even helpline for members of the Northeast Oz mark on March 9, before correcting Some investors Nickel has fallen over 15 per cent in the physical assault directed at people from community in the national capital. sharply lower. The US treasuries have past two months. It could be months before the Northeast, with distinctly Mongoloid The virus of racism, however, continues done the best. Gold, in a way, is suffer- are dumping Chinese stainless steel production starts features, are a symptom that any road- to claim more victims. Even internally. ing on two counts: Firstly, in this panic everything in recovering from the disastrous impact of side checking can catch. Just the other This is another, often overlooked part of sell-off, some investors are dumping the contagion. The demand for the metal day, a Mizo girl, apparently a student, the story. When the victim is also the ac- anything and everything. Secondly, panic. Others may contract in the near-term. Although was accosted by a woman at a Pune de- Northeast natives cused. Large sections of Northeast nat some investors are selling gold to re- sell gold to nickel inventories across Chinese ports partment store. For the Pune woman, face racist slurs, ives have been guilty of the same racism main liquid and cover losses else- have fallen sharply in the past two weeks, the Northeast girl was a “Chinese”, a car- in their own states, when they have acted where. Also, many investors keep gold cover losses demand remains weak. The LME cash-to-3 rier of COVID-19. Her abuses, caught on assaults across with utter contempt for the “outsider”. In in their portfolio only up to a certain month spread reflects no supply concerns mobile phone video and widely circu- India. They have a region with close-knit societies, the proportion, so their portfolio’s shrink- elsewhere. as the spread remains in a wide contango of lated online, were only the latest proof of “outsider” is often seen as the aggressor, ing value due to falling markets is forc- $78. Concerns related to Indonesian supply supreme ignorance. In Delhi, another been guilty of the usurper. And this sentiment has often ing them to sell some of their gold could offer some support to the metal, but incident saw racism and sexism at work led to racist behaviour. I can say this with holdings too. Yet, considering the prospects of recovery in prices in the current circumstances remain dim. together when a 40-year-old man spat at reverse-racism in conviction as I have been part of the same sharp decline in global yields, hefty Nickel can fall to as low as $10,000 in the next few months. But, once the a woman from Manipur and called her their own states. society which sees an “illegal cuts in interest rates and unprece- contagion starts diminishing, we are likely to see a sharp recovery in the “corona”, following on some lewd com- Bangladeshi” in every Bengali—even if dented stimulus from governments, prices. In that scenario, the metal can bounce back quickly as demand ments. (The man has since been arr Assam has had a turbulent history on the we are positive on gold prices and look from electric vehicles remains a supportive point. ested, mercifully) That was no exception. issue of illegal immigration. In Meghalaya, Bengalis have faced racist taunts for steady gains of 10-15 per cent in the At times, there are sharp rallies in the risk assets and industrial com- Angelica Aribam, a former general secre- and even hate crimes for just being an dkhar, an outsider in Khasi. The Bihari near to medium term. modities on oversold conditions and bargain hunting buoyed by support- tary of NSUI and gender activist from migrant worker—who pulls our rickshaw and builds our homes—is often seen Copper, the bellwether metal suscep- ing steps of the governments and central banks. However, these rallies are Manipur, was viciously trolled on as the lowest form of life, abused and insulted by anyone who wants to. In the tible to the global economic down- proving to be abortive. It is to be noted that the outlook described in this Twitter recently—inter alia, she was height of the anti-CAA movement in Assam, a widely-circulated video clip swing, has fallen sharply and could go article is logically and reasonably assuming that the COVID-19 contagion, called a ‘chinki’, one of the most fre- showed a group of Bihari migrant workers being abused by some women for further down amid prolonged sell-off. in all probability, will continue to hurt financial market sentiments for at quently used racist term to target people not “speaking in Assamese while you work in our state”. If that’s not racism, Its Shanghai inventories are rising least a few more months before the virus peak occurs. O with Mongoloid features. She too filed a what is? It’s only a matter of time before humanity wins the war against coro- sharply as China faces a sharp slow- (Views are personal.) police complaint about it. navirus. If only we could hope the same for the virus of racism. O
30 OUTLOOK | APRIL 6, 2020 OUTLOOKINDIA.COM APRIL 6, 2020 | OUTLOOK 31 COVER STORY ECOVID-19 REAL ESTATE
would like to relocate to Gurgaon, he is reduce by June 2020”. Shah, moreover, unable to do so, given the low market is banking on a government stimulus rates of his properties. While every package if the COVID-19 threat con WAITING FOR body is saying it’s a buyers’ market tinues in the form of lower investment (where buyers determine prices), for and debt cycle to help developers get people stuck in a limbo like Mr X it is cheaper loans for construction. “RBI is neither a buyers’ nor a sellers’ market. The Curve likely to revise the monetary policy in A BREEZE The year 2020 started with a hope that line with global trends to allay fear of Coronavirus hits a sluggish real estate things would look up. COVID-19 is IS FLAT massive recession. This may also help likely to delay the good news. in lowering interest rates for home sector, but experts predict a recovery However, Jaxay Shah, chairman, DELHI NCR loans to a record low,” he says. CREDAI National, is optimistic that the Avg price per sq ft: Rs 4,432 current slowdown will not have addi 22,905 22,596 22,976 AKIM Lakdawala of Goodwill tional repercussions on the realty sec 15,819 Developers, expects the real tor as it deals with tangible assets. “Real estate sector to be booming in estate remains the safest investment Hthe coming financial year thanks to ref option in spite of odds. It will see slower orm initiatives, including RERA (Real global production cycle due to ‘supply Estate Regulatory Authority), GST, 2008 2019 2008 2019 chain issues’ which may lead to delayed REIT, Benami Transaction Amen- deliveries of critical components espe Number of new Number of new dment Act and Pradhan Mantri Awas cially Chinese, Southeast Asian and units launched units sold Yojana. “The new tax regime and exten European components,” says Shah. sion of the date to sanction housing Despite a supply side impact, loans by a year introduced during the MUMBAI non-lending by banks and unfinished Union Budget for the FY20 will ensure Avg price per sq ft: Rs 7,014 projects, the government has contin surplus funds in the hands of potential ued to emphasise infrastructure devel 74,363 79,810 home-buyers, acting as a positive tool in opment andincentivised affordable recuperating consumer confidence and housing and initiatives which have 31,481 prompt investments,” Lakdawala states. been supporting Real Estate 27,212 With banks beginning to reduce Investment Trusts (REITs), co-living lending rates, more people are exp A luxury housing and student housing in India, points 2008 2019 2008 2019 ected to take advantage of the incen project in Greater out Anshuman Magazine, chairman tives to buy residential property as the Noida, Uttar Pradesh and CEO, India, Southeast Asia, Number of new Number of new lower EMIs would almost match their Middle-East, Africa, CBRE. units launched units sold current rents. Knight Frank in a report JITENDER GUPTA Farshid Cooper, MD, Spenta states that housing prices either rem Lola Nayar and Jyotika Sood would have benefited real estate. coming quarter. Corporation, is hopeful that the indus CHENNAI ained flat or fell during 2019, and 61 However, considering the present sce Indeed, such a cautious sentiment try will witness an upward trend in the Avg price per sq ft: Rs 4,170 per cent of the project launches were nario and its inherent challenges, inv may even extend the slowdown period next six to eight months. A large 11,542 under the affordable housing segment. EVIVAL of the Indian real estors will largely stay away from this in the real estate sector, which wit amount of foreign capital is also seen 10,373 Saurabh Garg, chief business officer of estate sector, one of the largest sector as well,” states Anuj Puri, chair nessed a sharp fall in demand post the to be chasing commercial assets as 7,401 7,980 nobroker.com, points out that as buying employment generators, seems man, Anarock Property Consultants. global financial crisis in 2008. India’s they continue to yield 8-10 per cent is impacted when economy goes up or Rto have hit another brickwall in the He feels the bloodshed in the financial demonetisationin November 2016 did returns annually. down “there might be a short-term wake of the panic generated by the markets will further dampen home further harm. Currently, the tourism and the hospi impact due to COVID-19 but overall we spreading coronavirus, the rising death buyers’ sentiments for investing in The raft of problems plaguing the tality sector have borne the brunt of 2008 2019 2008 2019 are still positive and feel 2020 should toll and an economy in temporary cost-intensive real estate. As such, the ordinary buyer of property is exempli the global pandemic—cancellation of be a good year. Interest rates have come Number of new Number of new lockdown. Many had been looking wait-and-watch scenario will get exte fied by say, Mr X, a former ICICI emp visas for foreigners as well as strong down and builders may also offer better units launched units sold forward to 2020 heralding the return nded, affecting housing sales in the loyee who bought a house in 2015 in travel advisories issued by many coun deals”. Based on the queries on his por of buyers for commercial and housing Gardenia Aims Glory in Sector 46, tries, including India, has hit it hard. tal, Garg states that around 64 per cent properties, given the government Noida. “The developer gave us an alibi Reports abound of weddings and con CALCUTTA people living on rent are interested in incentives, particularly for affordable With banks that due to some government intrica ferences being postponed, leading to Avg price per sq ft: Rs 3,359 buying properties in 2020. housing segment, and the recent cies, registration process would take cancellation of bookings at venues and 12,015 Magazine shares this hope. Real est lowering of interest rates. In addition, reducing time but will happen within a year. hotels. Luxury hotels, in particular, are ate investments are expected to rem the recent turmoil witnessed in the Four years later there is no sign of reeling under the blow. With many ain stable in 2020, he says, pointing lending rates, 5,654 6,140 6,678 financial markets had raised hopes that,” says Mr X, who doesn’t wish to states closing borders to keep away out that PE funds, foreign developers, that investors would look at real estate people would be identified. His second property at even domestic tourists just ahead of sovereign funds, etc. are taking an act as a safer investment option, consider Neemrana, bought for Rs 25.5 lakh in the holiday season, things look bad. ive interest in these assets. The only buy property as 2008 2019 2008 2019 ing that property prices have dipped in 2012 has depreciated in value, and is Many project developers are, how catch is the lack of built-up and leased many cities. lower EMIs worth Rs 18 lakh. Similarly, the Noida ever, optimistic that real estate may Number of new Number of new office, retail/logistics assets, which is “One could previously have surmised match rents. property which he got for Rs 48 lakh is not face any significant long-term imp units launched units sold expected to push buyers towards alter that the downfall in the stock market now worth Rs 38 lakh. Though Mr X act “as confusion and fear is likely to nate segments/greenfield options. O Source: All data is from the India Real Estate report by Knight Frank India
32 OUTLOOK | APRIL 6, 2020 OUTLOOKINDIA.COM APRIL 6, 2020 | OUTLOOK 33 COVER STORY ECOVID-19 PHOTOFEATURE
It is tiniest of tiny, doesn’t even have a DNA of its own to replicate (thus needs a host to multiply, like a cuckoo). It is just a protein cell and RNA strand inside a layer of fat. Visualise a hen egg. Soap can wash away that fat and kill it, like breaking the shell of a breakfast egg. Yet, the new coronavirus is a formidable killer. It has forced about three billion people indoors around the world— unprecedented in human history.
One Flu Over
A plane flies with a The Cuckoo’s Nest banner that says it all in Hamburg, Germany.
PHOTOGRAPH: AP COVER STORY ECOVID-19 PHOTOFEATURE
PHOTOGRAPHS: GETTY IMAGES
A man wearing a hazmat suit and a mask (Top left) The yellow van at Trafalgar Square, (Below left) Street artist TV Boy’s Roman holds a sign, at Times Square, New York London; the message is universal. Holiday scene with Gregory Peck and Audrey City, that mirrors the mood of the people in Hepburn on a wall near the Colosseum in the world’s most powerful nation, currently central Rome. Hepburn is carrying a card battling a tiny bug rather than bombing that says Clear Air Now—a positive effect ‘rogue regimes’. of the lockdown in Italy, this pandemic’s worst-hit nation thus far.
36 OUTLOOK | APRIL 6, 2020 OUTLOOKINDIA.COM APRIL 6, 2020 | OUTLOOK 37 COVER STORY ECOVID-19 PHOTOFEATURE
Panic buying leaves this supermarket (left) in Toronto empty. Similar scenes played out across the globe. A worker (top) disinfects the central market in the face of the pandemic in San Jose, Costa Rica. (Above) An eerie emptiness envelops the sacred Kaaba in Mecca’s Grand Mosque, Islam’s holiest site.
38 OUTLOOK | APRIL 6, 2020 OUTLOOKINDIA.COM APRIL 6, 2020 | OUTLOOK 39 COVER STORY SLUGGG/ECOVID-19SUBSLUG PHOTOFEATURE
Mannequins deck out with protective masks at the display window of a famous bridal dresses store in Zagreb.
40 OUTLOOK | APRIL 6, 2020 OUTLOOKINDIA.COM APRIL 6, 2020 | OUTLOOK 41 COVER STORY ECOVID-19 Lockdown / ART AND CULTURE MEDICINE
Keep It Light With Kubbra Sait DIY Cure? With the lockdown, everyone has been suggesting we watch Contagion and Pandemic. But I want to keep things light and easy, fun and giggles. Stuff that will make you get up from your couch, take a break and compel you to do something more productive. Don’t Do It Something that may make you wonder, but not leave you sleepless. My list of easy watches while we’re shut up at home are: Rumours of panaceas for COVID-19 abound. But some might do more harm than good. GETTY IMAGES
Lethal cocktail There has been a spike in demand for antivirals that purportedly cure COVID-19
The Goop Lab With Dil Dhadakne Do Daniel Sloss: Live Ajay Sukumaran in Bangalore only, for a healthcare worker who is differently. “The SARS virus receptors Gwyneth Paltrow Shows treating a COVID-19 patient,” ICMR are in the lungs, none in the upper res- chief Balram Bhargava emphasised at piratory tract. Therefore it did not FTER US President Trump and a recent briefing. The only other spread efficiently,” writes T. Jacob WhatsApp forwards endorsed circumstance the recommendation John, retired professor of clinical the anti-malarial drug hydroxy- applies to—as a preventive measure— virology, in Current Science. In this Achloroquine (HCQ) to fight COVID-19, is that of a person caring for a labora- case, the virus receptors are in the authorities and chemist associations tory-confirmed positive case. upper respiratory tract and lungs. Super Deluxe Night On Earth have cautioned people against buying Meanwhile, in the US, Trump’s con- “So, infection spreads easily and is it—and other antiviral drugs. On troversial description of HCQ as a more virulent than flu,” March 24, the Delhi drugs control potential “game changer” has he adds. department sent out an advisory to drawn criticism. An Arizona Other antivirals, like chemists after observing that “some man died and his wife became HIV drugs lopanavir and consumers were buying the medicines critically ill, apparently ritonavir, are being for prophylactic use”. The National after ingesting chloro- tested based on the Sex Education Explained Love Is Blind Pharmaceuticals Pricing Authority of quine phosphate, learning from the experi- India too put out a tweet warning which they had been ments with SARS and against self-medication. using to clean their MERS—in Saudi Arabia, for instance, “Only by prescription, it will be sold,” fish tanks. there is an ongoing trial using these Rajiv Singhal, general secretary of the Across the world, researchers are drugs against MERS. All India Organisation of Chemists and testing several antiviral drugs for So far, only the results of an early Mard Ko Dard Angamaly Kuch Kuch Druggists (AIOCD), told Outlook. their efficacy in treating COVID-19. Chinese trial on hospitalised adult Nahi Hota Diaries Hota Hai Singhal says his association, which cov- So far, no therapeutic drugs have patients with severe COVID-19 at the ers about 8.5 lakh chemists, has sent proven to be effective against the Jin Yin-tan Hospital in Wuhan are out strict instructions not to give out novel coronavirus. There are more available, and the results aren’t prom- azithromycin, HCQ, chloroquine, than 20 ongoing treatment studies in ising—no benefit was observed with As told to Lachmi Deb Roy lopanavir and ritonavir unless pre- China using chloroquine, according the lopinavir–ritonavir treatment scribed by a registered medical practi- to a WHO research blueprint in mid- beyond standard care, say the tioner. “HCQ normally isn’t a medicine March. Chloroquine is being evalu- researchers, pointing to the need for in high demand, but early this week ated because it was reasonably active more trials to confirm or exclude the there was a sudden spurt in queries,” he in vitro (laboratory experiments) possibility of a benefit. Don’t Stop The Music adds. “Rumours are creating the issue. against SARS-CoV, MERS CoV and In India, the Central Drugs Standard Ali Sethi is another and doesn’t take Our doctors are doing a wonderful job SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Control Organisation has approved VAYU lyricist, com- includes many apt track because precautions. Marz and people shouldn’t panic.” COVID 19. But how that translates in the restricted public health use of poser and singer: soulful romantic everybody needs by The Yellow Diary. On March 22, the Indian Council for vivo isn’t clear, it said. Chloroquine lopinavir-ritonavir combination I think this unfor- tunes, such as Baari to know where you It means infection. Medical Research (ICMR) had put out has shown in vitro activity against among symptomatic COVID-19 tunate period and by Bilal Saeed and have you been and And surely, Paradise a note regarding the recommendation viruses causing chikungunya, dengue patients. The approval, explains a sen- isolation present an Momina Mustehsan. whether you have by Coldplay because by the National Taskforce for COVID- and influenzas, but in-vivo studies in ior scientist, was based on the need to opportunity to intro- The song is about the virus. Dil Bep- I want to run away 19 on the use of HCQ as a prophylactic animal models and randomised con- have some drug to be able to use on spect and establish quarantining the arwah by Prateek from quarantine to agent. But this was intended for use trolled trials in humans have been compassionate grounds, which is a closer rapport with heart from love Kuhad and Ankur paradise. O largely disappointing, it noted. allowed in public health emergencies. only in exceptional circumstances that oneself. In these dire and I can relate to Tewari because the As told to Lachmi called for the protection of high-risk The novel coronavirus belongs to the “There are a lot of global trials going on times, my playlist it. Chan Kithan by heart is still careless Deb Roy individuals. family of SARS (severe acute respira- right now. In India, we haven’t yet “It is recommended only, and I mean tory syndrome) viruses, but behaves started any trials,” says the scientist. O
42 OUTLOOK | APRIL 6, 2020 OUTLOOKINDIA.COM APRIL 6, 2020 | OUTLOOK 43 BOOKS/LOCKDOWN READ
Saikat Niyogi need for imagination to surpass one’s imme- diate confines is the subject of Rabindranath EING cut off from all social interaction Tagore’s immortal play Post Office (Dak Ghar). is depressing, and a lightening up of Amal, a small boy, is confined to his room Bmood is in order. Comic writing can be with an incurable disease and expresses an a perfect pick-me-up. P.G. Wodehouse, Gerald insatiable curiosity about the outside world Durrell and Tom Sharpe are, we take it, well- to all he accosts—the dairyman, the village thumbed. Now read the comic genius you’ve pradhan, fellow boys, a fakir, and Sudha, a probably not read—the immortal, laugh-out- little flower gatherer. News of a new post loud, linguistically inventive Damon Runyon. office fires Amal’s mind, and he fantasises Narrated by an anonymous person in New about receiving a letter from the King, of being York, these stories, told in street skaz, inhabit His postman. A letter does arrive, borne by the the world of speakeasies, diners and horse royal physician, announcing the King’s arrival. races, populated by gangsters, dropouts and Deeply allegorical and life-affirming, Post lowlife of every dimension who all live by their Office resonated around the world—Yeats wits. Broadway in the ’20s and ’30s was never produced the English staging; Andre Gide so much fun as here. read it on Radio Paris the night before the city On Broadway: Damon Runyon fell to the Germans and Polish author-educa- Also Recommended: Cold Comfort Farm by tor Janusz Korczak produced a version with Stella Gibbons children (doomed later in Treblinka) in the Fever Pitch by Nick Hornby Warsaw Ghetto. Capture The Castle by Dodie Smith The one novel that mirrors exactly what happens in a town cowering under an Crime never pays, but it pays to shut out the Amar Chitra Katha epidemic is Albert Camus’s The Plague. Set world (when the world is shut to you) with and Tinkle are during a fictional outbreak in the Algerian city absorbing crime fiction. We take the opportu- of Oran in the 1940s, it chillingly goes through nity to plug the work of the unique and great offering a month- the various stages—the first glimmer of Georges Simenon and his fictional sleuth, long digital pestilence; a breezy dismissal by authorities; Inspector Jules Maigret. The chief detective the steady growth of deaths; perplexity and inspector of Paris’s police judiciaire is not an subscription for panic; declaration of quarantine; an inept eccentric genius like Holmes, he doesn’t keep free. Sign up at administration dealing with inadequate his hands clean (and his moustache waxed) healthcare; attempts to escape; looting and like Poirot, and certainly he isn’t as damaged bit.ly/ACKFree and breakdown of law; curfews; a stiffening as the brilliant Philip Marlowe, John Rebus and bit.ly/TinkleFree resolve and a gradual retreat of the disease. Kurt Wallander. He is as bourgeois as you and But how Dr Rieux, Father Paneloux, Rambert, me, but thorough, extraordinarily sensitive Tarrou and others react to isolation and dan- and with a remarkable ‘sixth sense’. In spare, ger is reflective of Camus’s unique vision—the lyrical prose, Simenon splits open fissures utter absurdity of the human condition, as of society to reveal its ulcers, tumours and also the resilience of human spirit. cancers—reason why so many consider the Depression and loneliness are handmaid- Maigret series (and his other ‘hard’ novels) to ens to confinement, and over the ages, be treasures of modern literature. Remember, authors have suffered from it, fought it and you’re in the hands of the Master. then exteriorised it in their works. Going The Inspector Maigret Series by Georges through their experience may help us Simenon understand it better, then overcome it. Some suggestions: For those taking pleasure in matters su- Humboldt’s Gift and Herzog by Saul Bellow pernatural there’s a virtual treasure trove. Try The Bell Jar by Sylvia Plath Stephen King’s The Shining (then watch Stan- Revolutionary Road by Richard Yates ley Kubrick’s classic, chilling movie version), It The factually and forensically inclined can and Children of the Corn. read about a society stalked by the plague Gothic settings melded with weird fantasy is in Daniel Defoe’s A Journal of the Plague the dark domain of H.P. Lovecraft: The Call of Year. It chronicles daily life during the horrific Cthulhu, The Dunwich Horror. outbreak of the disease in Britain in 1665-66. Yet what’s any genre without its masters? We Then there are histories of the older, more have in mind M.R. James (Collected Stories), infamous pan-European outbreak—the Sheridan Le Fanu (In a Glass Darkly) and J.H. dreaded Black Death in the 14th century. We Riddel (Night Shivers). recommend The Great Mortality: An Intimate Escape from oppressed captivity and the History of the Black Death by John Kelly. O
44 OUTLOOK | APRIL 6, 2020 APRIL 6, 2020 | OUTLOOK 45 la dolce vita
PTI The New Moon’s Down, Sir Against a pale blue sky, they clap for those who are putting themselves in grave danger in this hour of crisis—Abhishek, Aishwarya, little Aaradhya, other family-members and the patriarch, Amitabh Bach chan. The latter apparently re-tweeted a post on the deleterious effect of state-sponsored clangour on the virus on March 22-an amavasya. Can’t believe your ears? You won’t if you’re a fan, but do investi gate and decipher these revealing interstices of unreason. You’ve got time on your hands. Doll Up, The Crooner Sings For All Is this the face that uncorked a thou sand scares? Begowned thus, Helen Follow The herself would have been glad to let herself Four At Your be cast in marble; like her, singer Kanika Kapoor has launched a conflagration in Peril this towered Ilium of ours—three parties, 160 guests, the spectre of coronavirus Flanked by an orange halterneck sprinkling a fine dust over all, waves (teamed defiantly with track of indignation, police complaints, the pants), and an yellow halterneck tearful infector (this we imagine) dress pinched invitingly up front, sunk in quarantine. One day, Kan with a printed, kaftanesque dress ika will sing of all this. heart-stoppingly abbreviated in between, you could be forgiven for taking the scene as LA, circa 1971. Alas, that bunched up red gown Her Sleeve Notes spoils the effect. Our subjects (L to The off-shoulder black dress that makes R, Bani J, Kirti Kulhari, Manavi Gagroo us puckish, those slippery, sheer sleeves, and Sayani Gupta) are the leads of that hint of a necklace, the picture snuck the series Four More Shots Please! behind a giant phone that an errant finger The first season was slammed for blocks…no lockdown can dampen Ananya not being nuanced enough. Why, Panday’s spirit. Reading, painting, baking that heavily tattooed arm extending chocolate chip cookies with her sister do itself to support an aching limb is certainly help, but dressing up in black eats subtlety personified! the whole cake.
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46 OUTLOOK | APRIL 6, 2020 OUTLOOKINDIA.COM APRIL 6, 2020 | OUTLOOK 47 ISOLATION
Suresh Menon Contributing Editor, The Hindu
The Shortest Work soap. But then, those who enjoy the stuff (the The 17th century French mathema- video of the cow urine party went coronavi- tician and philosopher Blaise ral recently) will probably end up Pascal said that all the touching their face even more often. troubles of humanity came about because of Globe-Trotting Armchair the difficulty men had In 1790, a French artistocrat in simply being happy to Xavier de Maistre was sen- sit alone in their rooms. tenced to house arrest for 42 days for More than half the world is fighting an illegal duel. He spent his currently sitting alone in time writing a travelogue, Voyage their rooms—and many are Around My Room. “Heading north thinking of happiness past from my armchair,” goes an early and happiness future, but chapter, “we discover my bed, which remain uncertain about sits at the back of the room and cre- happiness present. ates a most agreeable perspective….” More men and women are If that was all there was—a physical being forced to work from home (or description of his room—the book wouldn’t have lasted the two centuries ‘WFH’ to give its scientific name). it has. But there is much more. ‘Social distancing, but digital close- The epigraph tells us where he will take us: In many an author of ness’ is the new mantra. “Only con- great learning I have read/ that one gains nothing by roaming the world nect,” E.M. Forster told us, and we too much. haven’t really had the time to gather There you have it—how to see a world in a grain of sand, or from within our fragments together. Now is the a single room. It is an inward voyage too, and sometimes reads like a time, since we are disconnected from youngster talking to the world on Instagram. everything else. “They may have forbidden me to travel through a city,” de Maistre I am one of the lucky ones, and grate- writes of his confinement, “but they left me the entire universe: infinity ful for that. When other professionals and eternity are at my command.” complain about their daily commute, I That ought to be as inspiring as Newton discovering gravity or refining get a glazed look in my eyes—or so they his laws of motion or optics when forced to stay at home during the Great tell me. That’s because my daily com- Plague of the 17th century. Many forced to stay home during the Great mute is a few seconds: from my bed- Demonetisation, too, might not appreciate it so much, though. room to the study. This has been my WFH routine for years. It is amazing Do Mind The Gap how much of our daily rush is avoida- Post-virus, let’s hope some of the good practices remain. Like better ble, how many meetings are actually hygiene and social distancing, especially in queues. unnecessary. We are terrible in queues. Stand in one at a bank, at the airport Staying home is punishment for check-in, or waiting to board a flight and you will feel the breath of the some, exciting for others, and a way of person behind you in your ear. Sometimes a chin on your shoulder too, connecting with the family for all. This as an attempt is made to check out your newspaper or book. Personal last can be a mixed blessing, though, as space is an alien concept for many. parents with bored children and chil- dren with boring parents are discover- Later, Said Shakespeare’s Great Dane ing now. All these years I have had no problem with WFH. I take breaks, I read, I Hand-washing is fine, but my prob- plan to organise my books or clear my desk (occasionally getting beyond lem is face-touching (the virus has the planning stage), watch television, speak to friends, make to-do lists inspired double-barreled, over-hy- and stick to them. phenated expressions). According to Now that I am forced to do it, the system has gone haywire. When you one study, we touch our faces 23 times can do anything you want, you end up doing nothing. Lethargy rules. You an hour. One way out would be to wash procrastinate. You make excuses. You blame the virus. You suddenly our hands with cow’s urine rather than discover the power of Pascal’s isolation.
48 OUTLOOK || APRIL 6, 2020 ILLUSTRATION: SAAHIL