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ORRICK OFFSHORE WIND ENERGY UPDATE and OUTLOOK January 2020 II

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ORRICK OFFSHORE WIND ENERGY UPDATE and OUTLOOK January 2020 II ORRICK OFFSHORE WIND ENERGY UPDATE AND OUTLOOK January 2020 II II The global offshore wind market has grown nearly 30 percent per year since 2010 and is projected to be a US$1 trillion industry over the next two decades. Markets around the world are seeing significant increases in offshore wind activity driven by more evolved regulatory structures and cost reductions due to technological advancements and growing competition. In 2019, wind (both onshore and offshore) led overall renewable energy investment with US$138.2 billion globally and offshore wind capacity investment was up 19 percent compared to 2018. In the United States, offshore wind energy is progress in China with well over a gigawatt quickly transitioning to a viable and game- (GW) of installed offshore wind capacity changing market sector. The 30 megawatt and many more projects planned or under (MW) Block Island wind project off the construction. Half of all global offshore wind coast of Rhode Island has completed its installed in 2018 was located in China, which third full year of operation. The first large- is currently projected to be the market leader scale offshore wind project off the coast for installed offshore wind capacity by 2021. of Massachusetts is in an advanced stage While these markets, and others, are seeing of project development. A demonstration exciting growth in this space, countries project is under construction by Dominion around the world continue to chase the Energy in Virginia. Numerous power mature offshore wind energy platform in purchase agreements (PPAs) and offshore Europe. Europe now has a total installed wind renewable energy credit (OREC) offshore wind capacity of approximately 20 contracts have been awarded with coastal GW, with more than 4,500 offshore turbines states from Maine to California in various in 11 countries. Offshore project installation stages of offshore wind program planning. and investment continues at an impressive Things are moving quickly and energy rate, with nearly a gigawatt of installed investors from North America, Europe and offshore wind capacity in the UK in 2019 and Asia are lining up to get involved. more than 5 GW of new project contracts in In a number of Asian countries, offshore the pipeline at record low prices. Countries wind is on a similar trajectory. Taiwan’s 128 such as Denmark, Belgium, Germany and MW Formosa 1 project recently achieved France are also advancing their offshore completion, with the first demonstration wind programs. turbines in commercial operation since A significant, steady buildout of offshore 2016. Japan’s Offshore Wind Promotion Act wind energy in the decade starting in 2020 and lucrative feed-in-tariff (FIT) regime are is all but certain across Europe, Asia and resulting in accelerated progress towards the U.S., as well as in other regions that a robust Japanese offshore wind project are just beginning to plan how and when platform, similar to the progress made in to capitalize on the immense potential of onshore wind and solar energy in Japan over offshore wind energy. the past few years. There is also significant 1 Continuing Decline Bloomberg New Energy Finance reported Maryland project and Deepwater’s Skip Jack a second-half 2019 global benchmark price project is US$132/MWh. And the price on the in Offshore Wind of just US$78/MWh, a 32 percent drop from Long Island Power Authority’s PPA for the Energy Prices the previous year. In June 2019, the planned South Fork project is reported at US$160/ 600 MW Dunkerque project off the coast of MWh for the first 90 MW and US$86/MWh One of the reasons for the increasing global France announced a strike price of just €44/ buildout of offshore wind is the decreasing for the additional 40 MW. The New Jersey MWh. And the United Kingdom’s contracts price curves that we have seen in Europe OREC price for Orsted’s Ocean Wind project for difference auction scheme accepted and are now seeing in United States power is US$98.10 (year 1). And in New York’s recent bids from three offshore wind projects at purchase transactions. The trend is similar OREC awards, NYSERDA announced average approximately US$50/MWh in 2019. to that of U.S. onshore wind and utility-scale all-in development costs of US$83.86 and solar over the last 10 years. Prices in the U.S. are not far behind. The expected average OREC costs of US$25.14/ National Renewable Energy Laboratory MWh for the Empire Wind and Sunrise Wind The rapid decline in prices around the world (NREL) analyzed the planned 800 MW projects (note that the projects retain energy for the power from new offshore wind Vineyard Wind project off the coast of sales revenue). Pricing on the recently projects is driven by a number of factors, Massachusetts, ran a bottom-up cost awarded Revolution Wind PPAs for power including market competition, increasing estimate, and found the price premium for supply to Connecticut and Rhode Island was supply chain efficiency, technology the U.S. market as compared to the more $94 and $98.43, respectively, and the recently advances, and improving forecasts of established European markets might be less performance based on operational history. awarded Mayflower Wind PPA for power to significant than had been widely expected In the coming years, these factors are Massachusetts utilities is forecasted to be or might otherwise be presumed. The year 1 projected to continue driving prices below the original price cap of $84.23. price under the Vineyard Wind PPA signed in downward. Although various numbers and July of 2018 is US$74, escalating to US$118 When comparing prices, it is important to projections are available, nobody debates in year 20 for the first 400 MW, and US$65 consider such factors as the allocation of the declines are already striking. The U.S. in year 1 for the second 400 MW. This price energy and capacity revenue, tax benefits Department of Energy (DOE) released a does not factor in the project’s revenue from (ITC/PTC and local credits), price escalation report in 2018 that found power prices in tax benefits and revenue from capacity sales factors, and whether the cost of transmission European offshore wind auctions and PPAs outside of the PPAs. is included. dropped from approximately US$200/ MWh for projects commencing operation By way of contrast, the initial price under between 2017 and 2019 to approximately Deepwater’s Block Island Power Purchase US$75/MWh for projects expected to Agreement was US$244. The pricing of begin operation between 2024 and 2025. the Maryland OREC program for US Wind’s 2 2 Structure of Energy • MARYLAND • NEW YORK Maryland passed the Maryland Offshore New York set a goal for offshore wind Purchase Transactions Wind Energy Act in 2013, amending the energy of 9 GW by 2035, with the (PPAs and OREC state’s renewable portfolio standard to procurement led by the New York State include Maryland ORECs. In 2017, the Energy Research and Development Transactions) Maryland Public Service Commission Authority (NYSERDA). NYSERDA’s OREC Two different transaction structures have (MDPSC) awarded the state’s first OREC program has NYSERDA procuring ORECs been utilized for the purchase and sale of agreements to the 120 MW Skipjack and from the project owners on behalf of offshore wind energy and related products 248 MW US Wind projects. Then in 2019, load serving entities, which in turn in the United States. Starting with the Maryland increased the requirement for are required to purchase ORECs from early PPAs for the Bluewater Wind project energy obtained from offshore wind by NYSERDA. Project owners retain all in Delaware and the Cape Wind project in 2030 by an additional minimum of 1.2 energy and capacity revenues generated, Massachusetts, the majority of offshore GW. The 2017 awards set forth OREC while the ORECs act as an additional wind energy transactions have been agreed prices and maximum OREC quantities for support mechanism. In 2019, New York’s upon using traditional bilateral PPAs with the two winning bidders. The Maryland first solicitation of proposals for offshore the state utilities. These PPAs have been OREC program requires “retail electricity wind power, two projects were selected: similar to utility PPAs for U.S. onshore suppliers” (as defined by state law) to the 816 MW Empire Wind (Equinor) and wind and solar, but with customized and purchase ORECs from the project owners the 880 MW Sunrise Wind projects (JV of highly negotiated transaction terms related in accordance with guidance set out Ørsted A/S and Eversource Energy). The to offshore wind and project-specific by the MDPSC. To be eligible for OREC projects have an expected average OREC considerations, including for pricing, project payments, the project owners must sell cost of US$25.14/MWh and an average timeline, transmission, permitting and all energy, capacity and ancillary services all-in development cost of US$83.36/ variations in project size and technology. associated with the OREC into the MWh. NYSERDA’s procurement methods Utility PPAs have been used for the recent regional PJM Interconnection-operated operate separately from that of public offshore power purchase transactions in markets and then distribute the resulting power authorities, including the Long Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island proceeds to the electricity suppliers Island Power Authority and its 20-year and for the South Fork project in New York. purchasing the associated ORECs from PPA with the South Fork Wind project. an escrow account. The MDPSC set With New York law mandating 9 GW of The second transaction structure is for the an initial price schedule equivalent to offshore wind by 2035, further NYSERDA purchase and sale of ORECs, representing US$131.93/MWh for US Wind and the procurements are likely.
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