of Metropolitan District Council Intelligence Bulletin

Understanding Bradford District: Unemployment Claimant Count monthly update for May 2021

(Please note: the April 2021 figures released in May 2021 have been revised and finalised in this month’s release by the Office for National Statistics, and therefore differ slightly from those in last month’s bulletin)

Date: 18 June 2021 District Headlines • The May 2021 unemployment-related claimant count rate for the District is 9.3%. This is the same level as at the end of last year and a fall from the 9.7% of the past few months. It was 9.3% at the end of 2020 and 5.2% in March 2020 before the impact of the pandemic - a 4.1 percentage point increase since March 2020. • The claimant count number is 30,925. This is over 1,000 less than last month; 125 higher than December 2020, although 13,835 more than in March 2020, an 81.0% increase in total. • Bradford West has the highest 16-64 years unemployment-related claimant rate at 12.4% and Shipley the lowest at 4.9%. • In terms of all local authorities in the UK, Bradford District has the 15th highest rate in the country; excluding the London Boroughs, the 7th. In terms of cities - the 3rd after Birmingham and Wolverhampton. The district rate is significantly above the UK rate of 6.0%. • The 18-24 year old claimant count rate is particularly high at 14.2%. It was 7.8% in March 2020, a 6.4 percentage point increase. The May 2021 number is 6,545; 285 claimants lower than April 2021. The number of 18-24 years claimants increased substantially during the first lockdown of the pandemic and continued to increase gradually last year to a peak in March 2021 of 6,930. The May 2021 number takes the level close to that of May/June 2020. In total 18-24 years claimant numbers have increased by 2,945 since March 2020, this is a 81.8% increase. • Bradford East has the highest 18-24 years claimant rate at 17.6% and Shipley the lowest at 9.6%. • In terms of all local authorities in the UK, Bradford District has the 7th highest 18-24 years rate in the country. In terms of cities - the 2nd after Wolverhampton. It is significantly above the UK rate of 8.2% and some Bradford wards have the highest rates in the country. Bradford District 16-64 years claimant rate

Claimants as proportion of 16-64 years residents: Bradford District (%) • The May 2021 Bradford District 12.0 unemployment-related claimant rate 9.7 (percentage of 16-64 year old residents) is 10.0 9.3 9.3 9.3%. This is the same level as at the end of 9.0 last year and a fall from the 9.7% of the 8.0 past few months. It is a 4.1 percentage

point increase since March 2020, when it 6.0 5.2 was 5.2%. • In terms of all local authorities in the UK, 4.0 Bradford District has the 15th highest rate in the country; excluding the London 2.0 Boroughs, the 7th. In terms of cities - the 3rd after Birmingham and Wolverhampton. The 0.0 district rate is significantly above the UK rate of 6.0%. West 16-64 years claimant rates

Claimants as proportion of residents aged 16-64 (%) January 20 - May 21 • The Bradford District unemployment- 12.0 related claimant rate at 9.3% is the highest in , which has 10.0 an average rate of 7.1% in May 2021. It is significantly above the rate for 8.0

the City Region (6.4%) and for 6.0 the UK (6.0%). • At 4.1, the District has experienced 4.0 the highest percentage point increase in West Yorkshire since March 2020. 2.0 The average for West Yorkshire is a 0.0 3.2 percentage point increase. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

Bradford Calderdale Kirklees Leeds Wakefield Bradford District claimant numbers and rate - monthly increase Since March 2020 claimant numbers have increased by 13,835, a rise of 81.0%. In terms of the monthly change in the claimant rate, the highest increases were in the spring of 2020, although there was a significant increase earlier this year during the most recent lockdown. The fall between April and May 2021 nearly compensates for this rise.

Claimant Count numbers: Bradford District Claimant rate - % point monthly change: Bradford District 35,000 2.5 31,995 30,800 30,925 29,865 30,000 2

25,000 1.5 20,000 17,090

15,000 1

10,000 0.5

5,000 0

0

Mar-Apr Apr-May

Jul-20 -0.5

Jun-Jul Jun-Jul 20

Jan-20 Jan-21

Jun-20

Oct-20

Apr-20 Apr-21

Feb-20 Sep-20 Feb-21

Jul-Aug 19 Jul-Aug 20 Jul-Aug

Dec-20

Aug-20

Nov-20

Ma-Apr 21 Ma-Apr

Jan-Feb20 Jan-Feb21

Mar-20 Mar-21

Dec-Jan 20 Dec-Jan 21 Dec-Jan

Sep-Oct Sep-Oct 19 Sep-Oct 20

May-20 May-21

Apr-May21

Oct-Nov 19 Oct-Nov 20 Oct-Nov

Aug-Sep 19 Aug-Sep Aug-Sep 20 Aug-Sep

May-Jun 20 May-Jun

Nov-Dec 20 Nov-Dec Nov-Dec 19 Nov-Dec

Feb-Mar 20 Feb-Mar 21 Feb-Mar

-1 Ward claimant rate Claimant rates range from 17.1% in Manningham to 2.1% in , both lower than for April 2021. The rates in the Bradford inner city wards are amongst the highest rates in the UK. % Manningham 17.1 15.8 Bowling and 15.1 14.3 City 13.8 13.7 12.6 11.4 Heaton 11.3 Central 10.9 Eccleshill 10.5 9.4 Royds 9.1 Clayton and Fairweather Green 8.9 8.9 8.6 Windhill and 8.0 7.9 7.7 6.2 Shipley 6.0 Queensbury 5.4 Idle and 4.8 4.4 Rural 4.4 Bingley 3.8 3.3 2.8 2.7 Wharfedale 2.1 Ward claimant rate percentage point increase March 2020 - May 2021 Some of the highest increases have been in the wards not affected by highest unemployment levels pre-COVID, for example Toller & Heaton. Toller has seen an increase in it’s 16-64 years claimant rate from 6.1% to 12.6%. PP inc. Manningham 7.5 Bradford Moor 7.4 Little Horton 7.0 Great Horton 6.6 Toller 6.5 6.2 City 5.8 Heaton 5.7 Tong 4.6 4.3 Eccleshill 4.3 Bolton and Undercliffe 4.2 Clayton and Fairweather Green 4.2 Thornton and Allerton 3.9 Royds 3.7 Wibsey 3.6 Wyke 3.2 Keighley West 3.0 3.0 Shipley 2.7 Queensbury 2.5 Keighley East 2.5 Baildon 2.4 2.4 2.2 Worth Valley 1.8 Bingley 1.7 Ilkley 1.6 Wharfedale 1.3 Craven 1.3 Ward claimant numbers May 2021

nos. City 2,565 Manningham 2,210 Little Horton 2,200 Bowling and Barkerend 2,095 Bradford Moor 1,880 Toller 1,620 Great Horton 1,585 Tong 1,575 Heaton 1,275 Eccleshill 1,240 Keighley Central 1,210 Bolton and Undercliffe 990 Royds 970 Thornton and Allerton 965 Clayton and Fairweather Green 925 Keighley West 805 Windhill and Wrose 800 Wibsey 775 Wyke 715 Keighley East 625 Shipley 605 Queensbury 580 Idle and Thackley 510 Bingley Rural 480 Bingley 415 Baildon 380 Worth Valley 295 Craven 270 Ilkley 220 Wharfedale 140 Ward claimant number change March 2020 – May 2021 Most of the increase in the claimant count came during the first lockdown in 2020. Following the most recent lockdown many wards experienced an increase, but this month has seen a fall in most wards. Bradford Moor, City and Toller are continuing to be the hardest hit by the pandemic.

Claimant number change March 2020 - May 2021 : Bradford District wards 1300 Mar20-May21 1100 Mar-May20 Jun-Dec20 900 Jan-May21 700

500

300

100

-100

City

Tong

Ilkley

Wyke

Toller

Royds

Craven

Shipley

Bingley

Wibsey

Heaton

Baildon

Eccleshill

Wharfedale

Queensbury

Little Horton Little

Bingley Rural Bingley

Worth Valley Worth

Keighley East Keighley

Great Horton Great

Manningham

Keighley West Keighley

Bradford Moor Bradford

Keighley Central Keighley

Idle and Thackley Idle

Windhill and Wrose Windhill

Thorntonand Allerton

Bolton and Undercliffe Bolton and

Bowling and Barkerend and Bowling Clayton and Fairweather Green Fairweather and Clayton Bradford District 18-24 years claimant numbers

18-24 years claimant count numbers: Bradford District • The number of 18-24 years claimants for 8,000 7,000 6,700 May 2021 is 6,545. This is 285 claimants 6,430 6,545 lower than April 2021. The number of 18- 24 years claimants increased significantly 6,000 during the first lockdown of the 5,000 pandemic and continued to increase 4,000 gradually last year to a peak in March 3,600 2021 of 6,930. The May 2021 number 3,000 takes the level close to that of spring of 2,000 2020. In total 18-24 years claimant numbers have increased by 2,945 since 1,000 March 2020, this is a 81.8% increase 0 overall. Bradford District 18-24 years claimant rate

18-24 years claimants as proportion of residents 18-24 (%) Jan20 - May 21 • The May 2021 Bradford District 18-24 years 16.0% claimant rate is 14.2%. This is lower than the peak this year in February of 15.0%. It was 14.0% 7.8% in March 2020, therefore there has been a 6.4 percentage point increase since 12.0% the start of the pandemic. 10.0% • It is significantly above the West Yorkshire average of 9.4% and the UK rate of 8.2%. 8.0%

• In terms of all local authorities in the UK, 6.0% Bradford continues to have the 7th highest 18-24 years claimant rate in the country. In 4.0% terms of cities - the 2nd after Wolverhampton • The Bradford East constituency has the 2.0% highest 18-24 years rate at 17.6% and Shipley 0.0% the lowest at 9.6%. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

Bradford Calderdale Kirklees Leeds Wakefield Ward 18-24 years claimant rate Claimant rates range now from around one in five 18-24 year olds in some wards in Bradford, such as Eccleshill and Manningham, to one in seventeen in Ilkley and Worth Valley. % Eccleshill 20.1% Manningham 19.9% Great Horton 19.0% Bradford Moor 18.9% Little Horton 18.8% Tong 18.7% Bowling and Barkerend 18.6% Thornton and Allerton 17.2% Toller 16.7% Royds 16.1% Heaton 16.0% Bolton and Undercliffe 15.2% Wibsey 14.5% Wyke 14.2% Windhill and Wrose 14.2% Clayton and Fairweather Green 13.8% Keighley West 13.6% Keighley Central 13.3% Queensbury 11.2% Keighley East 10.9% Shipley 10.6% City 9.6% Idle and Thackley 9.3% Bingley Rural 8.8% Bingley 7.8% Baildon 7.4% Wharfedale 6.4% Craven 6.2% Ilkley 6.0% Worth Valley 5.7% 18-24 years claimant rate percentage point increase March 2020 - May 2021 Some of the highest rate increases in wards not affected by highest youth unemployment pre-COVID e.g. Bradford Moor with a March 2020 claimant rate of 8.3% which has increased to 18.9%, and Toller, now with a rate of 16.7%, from 7.9% in March 2020. PP inc. Bradford Moor 10.7 Bowling and Barkerend 8.9 Toller 8.8 Manningham 8.3 Great Horton 8.0 Thornton and Allerton 8.0 Eccleshill 7.7 Heaton 7.5 Tong 7.2 Little Horton 7.0 Clayton and Fairweather Green 6.7 Wibsey 6.6 Wyke 6.2 Idle and Thackley 6.1 Royds 6.1 Queensbury 6.0 Bolton and Undercliffe 5.9 Windhill and Wrose 5.4 Keighley Central 5.3 Shipley 5.3 Bingley Rural 5.1 Keighley West 5.1 Ilkley 4.6 Wharfedale 4.6 Bingley 4.4 Baildon 4.3 Keighley East 4.0 City 3.7 Craven 3.4 Worth Valley 3.4 Ward 18-24 years claimant numbers May 2021

nos. City 490 Manningham 465 Bowling and Barkerend 440 Bradford Moor 440 Little Horton 440 Toller 390 Great Horton 330 Tong 325 Eccleshill 300 Heaton 290 Keighley Central 225 Bolton and Undercliffe 220 Thornton and Allerton 215 Royds 210 Clayton and Fairweather Green 205 Keighley West 175 Windhill and Wrose 170 Wibsey 165 Wyke 150 Keighley East 135 Queensbury 130 Shipley 110 Bingley Rural 105 Idle and Thackley 100 Bingley 80 Baildon 60 Craven 55 Worth Valley 50 Ilkley 45 Wharfedale 35 Ward 18-24 years claimant number change March 2020 - May 2021 The vast majority of the increase has been between March and May 2020. Despite a general decrease in numbers in May 2021, some wards have still experienced an increase this year, such as Bradford Moor and Toller.

18-24 years claimant number change March 2020 - May 2021 : Bradford District wards 290

Mar20-May21 240 Mar-May20 Jun-Dec20 190 Jan-May21

140

90

40

-10 Bradford District male and female claimant rates

• Claimant numbers for males as a Claimant count as % of residents aged 16-64 yrs proportion of working-age residents is 11.2% for May 2021, an increase of 5.1 14.0 percentage points since March 2020. It was 6.1% in March 2020. The current 12.0 rate is above the average for West Bfd males 10.0 Yorkshire, 8.6% and the UK rate of West Yorks males 7.1%. 8.0 • For women the claimant rate is 7.5%, Bfd females an increase of 3.2 percentage points 6.0 since March 2020. It was 4.3% in West Yorks females March 2020. Currently it is also the 4.0 highest in West Yorkshire, the average being 5.6% and above the UK average 2.0 of 4.9%. 0.0

• The increase in the claimant count this

Jul-20

Jan-20 Jan-21

Jun-20

Oct-20 Apr-21

year has also been predominantly Apr-20

Feb-20 Sep-20 Feb-21

Dec-20

Aug-20

Nov-20

Mar-20 Mar-21 May-21 male workers. May-20 Definition: __

The claimant count is a measure released monthly of the number of people claiming unemployment related benefits and gives a timely sense of how the local labour market is performing. It gives a good indication of the places hardest hit economically by the COVID-19 crisis.

It includes those claiming Job Seekers Allowance and those claiming the unemployment-related element of Universal Credit. In some cases claimants are not unemployed but are eligible because of low wages and hours. This is increasingly so as more people are moved onto Universal Credit and because of recent changes to Universal Credit eligibility as part of the COVID-19 response.

Within the data it is not possible to identify the different circumstances of claimants. Hence it includes some people claiming benefits while working, as well as the self-employed who have seen work dry-up and employees who have lost jobs.

The Office for National Statistics point out that although the claimant count is used as a proxy measure for unemployment, it is increasingly more difficult to make comparisons with historical data. Data sources and further information:

__ Centre for Cities: https://www.centreforcities.org/data/uk-unemployment-tracker/

West Yorkshire Combined Authority Economic Monitor: https://www.westyorks-ca.gov.uk/documents/economic-monitor/

Unemployment data: https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/

Labour market economic commentary: https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabou rmarket/june2021

More information about Bradford District: https://ubd.bradford.gov.uk/

Contact for enquiries: [email protected], Office of the Chief Executive, Metropolitan District Council