EVALUATION of the 1988 ETHIOPIAN DROUGHT ASSISTANCE PROGRAM Submitted To
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EVALUATION OF THE 1988 ETHIOPIAN DROUGHT ASSISTANCE PROGRAM Submitted to: USAID/Ethiopia FUA Africa Bureau Submitted by: Nancy Metcalf Ellen Patterson Brown Michael Glantz Hope Sukin DEVRES, INC. 7201 Wisconsin Avenue Suite 500 Bethesda, MD 20814 Cable: DEVRES WASHINGTON Telex: 440184 Contract No. PDC-0085-I-00-6095-00-21 March 1989 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The Evaluation Team would like to express its gratitude to the many persons both in Washington and in the field who gave of their time, experience and expertise in helping carry out this evaluation of the US Emergency Assistance Program for Ethiopia during 1987-88. Their frank assessments of the program and its successes and shortcomings provided guidance to the team on the appropriate focus for the evaluation and the most important aspects of the program to be analyzed for future programming guidance. The Government of the People's Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, USAID/Ethiopia, the US Embassy, private voluntary organizations and international and UN organizations all gave generously of their time. Without their help it would have been impossible to cover the necessary ground in the three weeks spent in Ethiopia. The USAID, government and voluntary and international agency personnel who assisted the team during their field trips provided an invaluable opportunity to look at on-going program and project operations and their impacts. A special thank-you goes to Amsaletch and Aster without whose help this report could never have been done. Nancy Metcalf Team Leader Ellen Patterson Brown Sociologist/Anthropologist Hope Sukin Health/Nutrition Michael Glantz Environmental Scientist i LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS AID Agency for International Development AJDC American Joint Distribution Committee AMC Agriculture Marketing Corporation CRDA Christian Relief and Development Association CRS Catholic Relief Services CRS-MC CRS-Missionaries of Charity CRS-MCH CRS-Mother Child Health CSA Central Statistics Authority DCC Development Coordination Committee ECS Ethiopian Catholic Secretariat EECHY Ethiopian Evangelical Church Mekane Yesus EOC Ethiopian Orthodox Church EWS Early Warning System EEWS Ethiopian Early Warning System FA Farmers Association FHI Food for the Hungry International FIS Food Information System GPDRE Government of the People's Democratic Republic of Ethiopia HCS Hararghe Catholic Secretariat ICRC International Committee of the Red Cross JRP Joint Relief Partnership (Formerly Church Drought Action Africa) LICROSS League of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies LWF Lutheran World Federation MOA Ministry of Agriculture MT Metric Tons NGO Non-governmental Organization NMSA National Meteorological Service Agency OXFAM/UK Oxford Famine Relief/United Kingdom PA Peasant Association PVO Private Voluntary Organization RRC Relief and Rehabilitation Commission SAVE Save the Children/USA SCF/UK Save tht Children/United Kingdom UNDRO UN Disaster Relief Office UNEPPG UN Office for Emergency Prevention and Preparedness iii UNHCR UN High Commission for Refugees UNICEF UN Childrens Fund USAID US Agency for International Development USG United States Government WFP World Food Program WTOE World Food Program Transport Operation in Ethiopia WVRO World Vision Relief Organization (Also known as World Vision Relief and Development) iv TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .......... ................... i LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS .... .......... iii TABLE OF CONTENTS ........ .................. v LIST OF TABLES ........ ....................... xiii LIST OF FIGURES ......... ................... xv EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ....... ..................... xvii I. INTRODUCTION ......... ................... 1 A. Purpose, Scope and Methodology of the Evaluation 1 B. Overview of Ethiopia's Drought History . 1 C. Emergency in Ethiopia Impact upon an Already "At Risk" Population ...... ............. 2 D. The 1988 Drought Emergency ..... .......... 2 E. The Donor Response ....... .............. 2 II. EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS IN ETHIOPIA .... ......... 5 A. Introduction ........ ................. 5 B. The Political Context of Early Warning in Ethiopia ........ ................. 5 C. A Brief Overview of the Ethiopian Early Warning System ........ ................ 6 D. Other Ethiopian Early Warning Systems .. ..... 8 E. Other Early Warning Systems ... .......... 14 F. What Actually Happened with EEWS in 1987 and the 1988 Emergency .... ............ .. 14 G. Conclusions and Recommendations .... ........ 22 v III. FOOD NEEDS ASSESSMENTS ..... ............. ... 27 A. Introduction ..... ................ ... 27 B. Differing Mechanisms Used in Defining Needs ....... .................... ... 27 C. Timing of Needs Assessments .. ......... ... 28 D. What the Food Needs Assessment for 1988 Indicated ...... .................. ... 29 E. The Importance of Logistical Capacity, Infrastructure and Political Conditions in Needs Assessments .. ........... .. 29 F. Conclusions and Recommendation .......... 34 IV. THE US RESPONSE TO THE 1988 DROUGHT EMERGENCY ..... ....................... 35 A. Introduction .... ............... ... 35 B. The Level and Timing of the U.S. Response 35 C. The Objectives of the US and Other Donors in Mounting Their Early Response Programs 36 D. Program Implementation .. .............. 36 E. Conclusions and Recommendations ... ....... 55 V. IMPACT OF THE EMERGENCY FOOD PROGRAM ... ...... 59 A. Introduction ..... ................ ... 59 B. The Social Impact of Emergency Food Distribution ..... ................ ... 63 C. Targeting Populations ... ............ ... 66 D. Rations ......... ................... 69 E. The Nutritional Impact of Emergency Food Distribution ..... ................ ... 70 F. Conclusions and Recommendations .... ....... 79 -Vii Page VI. AGRICULTURAL RECOVERY ..... ............... .85 A. Introduction ....................... .. 85 B. The Condition of Farmers in 1984/85 and 1987/88 ........ .................... .85 C. The Impact of the Agricultural Rehabili tation Projects ...... ............... .. 88 D. Conclusions and Recommendation .. ........ 89 VII. REGULAR PVO FOOD AID PROGRAMS ............. 91 A. Introduction ........ ................ 91 B. The Role of the US PVOs and the Contribu tion of Their Regular Programs to the Emergency Relief Effort ... ........... ... 92 C. The Impact of Regular Programs on Drought Preparedness and Famine Prevention ..... .. 95 D. Conclusions and Recommendations ........... 98 VIII. THE U.S. RESPONSE TO THE 1987/88 FOOD EMERGENCIES; CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS .. ........ .101 A. Major Recommendations .... ............. .101 B. Early Warning Systems .... ............ .. 102 C. Food Needs Assessment .... ............ .. 103 D. The US Response ...... .............. .. 104 E. Program Impact ..... ............... .. 105 F. Agricultural Recovery .... ............ .. 107 G. Regular Food Aid Programs ... .......... 107 ix ANNEX 1: Scope of Work ANNEX 2: Early Warning Systems: An Overview ANNEX 3: Questionnaires Used By Evaluation Team On Field Trips and Interviews ANNEX 4: Summary of 1988 US Supported Voluntary Agency Emergency Relief Programs ANNEX 5: Bibliography xi LIST OF TABLES Table Number 1 USAID/ADDIS Food Need Assessent CY 1988 Food Deficit ......... .............. 30 2 FAO Estimates of Cereal Import and Food Aid Requirement for 1988 .. .......... ... 32 3 Number of People Likely to Depend Entirely on Relief Food in 1988 . ....... ... 33 4 USG Food Aid Assistance to Ethiopia, FY 1988 ....... ...................... 37 5 USG Non-Food Aid Assistance to Ethiopia, FY 1988 ....... ...................... 38 6 Final Report on 1988 Emergency Food Aid . 39 7 1988 Non-Food Relief Pledges .. ......... ... 40 8 1988 Stocks Carried Over Into 1989 .......... 45 9 Location and Number of People Affected 1984-88 ....... ...................... 47 10 RRC Preliminary Report on Food Distri butions - Eritrea, Tigray, Wello, Gonder . 48 11 1988 JRP Relief Activity ... ........... ... 51 12 Agricultural Recovery Programs .......... 86 xiii LIST OF FIGURES Figure Number Paize 1 Generalized Rainfall Regimes .. ......... ... 15 2 Histograms of the Mean Monthly Rainfall (mm) of Selected Stations .... ............. ... 17 3 Nutritional Status and Trends, Wollo, 1987-88 ....... ...................... 74 4 Nutritional Status and Trends, Showa, 1987-88 ....... ...................... 76 5 Nutritional Status and Trends, Hararghe, 1987-88 ....... ...................... 78 xv EXECUTIVE SUMMARY A. Purpose. Scope and Methodology The principal purposes of the evaluation were to assess the timeliness, appropriateness and impact of the U.S. emergency response, to the 1987-88 Ethiopian Emergency, analyze the importance of the in place U.S. government and voluntary agency infrastructure in this response; examine the results to date of drought preparedness and famine prevention projects; and make recommendations on future progrnmming. 'he scope of the evaluation (see Annex 1) illustrates the many issues dealt with during the course of the preparation, field work and writing of the evaluation report. Methodologically, the Team relied heavily upon secondary source review, interviews and observations, both in Washington, D.C. and Ethiopia. B. Ovei.-iew 1. Background The 1987-88 Emergency was not Ethiopia's first. In fact, famine has been a recurrent feature of Ethiopian history. The first recorded occurrence dates from the 13th century. In the last one hundred years, there have been 10 famines, including the great famine of 1888-92 in which as many as one-third of Ethiopia's people died.