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Future Role and Contribution of Regional Capitals to Australia

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Future Role and Contribution of Regional Capitals to Australia Future role and contribution of regional capitals to Australia Senate Standing Committees on Rural and Regional Affairs and Transport Submission by Tweed Shire Council 30 April 2015 THIS PAGE IS BLANK Table of Contents Table of Contents Terms of Reference ......................................................................................... 1 Committee Secretariat contact ......................................................................... 1 Drivers of population change ............................................................................ 2 Development History ........................................................................................ 2 Migration Patterns ............................................................................................ 2 Historical migration flows, Tweed Shire, 2006-2011 ......................................... 3 Overseas Migration - Emerging groups ............................................................ 3 Forecast Growth - Tweed Shire ....................................................................... 3 Urban Coastal Growth - Tweed Shire ............................................................... 4 Northern Rivers Regional Capital ..................................................................... 4 Conclusions ..................................................................................................... 8 References....................................................................................................... 9 Appendix: North Coast Regional Statistics .................................................... 10 Contents i Senate Inquiry - Regional Capitals Terms of Reference On 11 February 2015, the Senate moved that the following matters be referred to the Senate Rural and Regional Affairs and Transport References Committee for inquiry and report by 1 December 2015. The future role and contribution of regional capitals to Australia, including: a. an assessment of current demographic trends and the changing role of regional capitals; b. an analysis of current funding provided to regional capitals; c. an analysis of the benefit of additional funding regional capitals could receive based on population, demand for services and their strategic importance for the region, state or country; d. investment challenges and opportunities to maintain or grow regional capitals, including infrastructure, community and human services, communications and natural resources; e. incentives and policy measures that would support sustainable growth in regional capitals; f. the impact the changing environment will have on regional capitals; and g. any other related matters. Note: the terms of reference do not define ‘regional capitals’. The committee is interested in receiving submissions not just from representatives of regional capitals, but also from other towns and cities who have relevant views to express about the current and future role of regional capitals. Any person, organisation, town or city may contribute to the inquiry through making a submission by 30 April 2015. Committee Secretariat contact Committee Secretary Senate Standing Committees on Rural and Regional Affairs and Transport PO Box 6100 Parliament House Canberra ACT 2600 Phone: +61 2 6277 3511 Fax: +61 2 6277 5811 email: [email protected] Page 1 Senate Inquiry - Regional Capitals Drivers of population change Tweed Shire is located in the far north coast of New South Wales. The Shire is adjacent to the Gold Coast in Queensland - in fact the northern suburbs of Tweed Shire are essentially an extension of the Gold Coast urban area. European settlement of the Shire dates from 1844, with land used mainly for timber-getting and farming. Once timber supplies were exhausted the Tweed Valley became a centre for sugar cane and banana growing. The Shire contains large tracts of national parks and environmentally sensitive areas, including part of the UNESCO heritage listed Gondwana Rainforests. Development History There was minimal population in the Tweed up until the 1880s. The inland areas of the Shire were the early focus of population, with Murwillumbah the major centre. The Murwillumbah Municipality was formed in 1902. The Tweed Heads area developed as a tourist area assisted by a direct rail connection to Brisbane. In the post war period, Tweed Heads has grown from a small holiday resort to a large urban centre, with the population of the Shire increasing from about 19,000 in 1947 to 22,000 in 1961, then to 25,000 in 1971. Rapid growth took place from the 1980s, aided by tourism, with growth particularly in the areas along the coast and to the south of Tweed Heads. The population increased from about 40,000 in 1981 to 54,000 in 1991, and then to about 81,500 in 2006. Areas such as Tweed Heads South, Tweed Heads West, Banora Point and Bilambil have experienced significant growth from the 1960s onwards. In more recent years, coastal growth has extended further south with towns such as Kingscliff, Casuarina and Pottsville expanding rapidly. Today Tweed has the largest population of the local government areas in the Northern Rivers with 91,210 residents (ABS 2014). It is estimated that Tweed's population will grow to more than 125,000 by 2036 (http://forecast.id.com.au/tweed/), representing an increase in population of close to 40%. The majority of this growth will be accommodated within two major urban release areas which are currently under development. These are Cobaki (5500 lots) and Kings Forest (4500 lots). Migration Patterns In recent years population growth has been driven by migration from other areas of New South Wales and to a lesser extent Queensland. This migration has included large numbers of retirees as well as families with children. In the 2006-2011 period, the Shire attracted large numbers of persons from overseas as well from Sydney and south east Queensland. It is expected that there will be continued demand for residential development in Tweed Shire due to its high amenity level, coupled with transport improvements that have shortened commuting distances to the Gold Coast in particular. Page 2 Senate Inquiry - Regional Capitals Historical migration flows, Tweed Shire, 2006-2011 Population and household forecasts, 2011 to 2036, prepared by .id the population experts, July 2014. Note: The migration flows depicted above do not represent future or forecast migration flows. The arrows represent migration flows to the area as a whole and do not indicate an origin or destination for any specific localities within the area. Overseas Migration - Emerging Groups Between 2006 and 2011, the number of people born overseas increased by 1,498 or 13.3%, and the number of people from a non-English speaking background increased by 607 or 18.5%. The largest changes in birthplace countries of the population in this area between 2006 and 2011 were for those born in New Zealand, United Kingdom, South Africa, China. Forecast Growth - Tweed Shire The Tweed Shire population is forecast to grow to 125,953 by 2036. The number of dwellings in Tweed Shire is forecast to grow from 40,452 in 2011 to 48,427 in 2026, with the average household size rising from 2.38 to 2.39 by 2026. Between 2011 and 2026, the age structure forecasts for Tweed Shire indicate a 28.3% increase in population under working age, a 27.3% increase in population of retirement age, and a 15.5% increase in population of working age. The main point here is that there is going to be an increasing dependency of youth and retirees in the Tweed over the next 20 years. Page 3 Senate Inquiry - Regional Capitals Urban Coastal Growth - Tweed Shire A majority of the urban growth within the North Coast of New South Wales over the past 70 years has occurred along the coast. With the coastal towns of Ballina, Kingscliff and Tweed Heads experience some of the highest growth rates in the state. The urban development within the Tweed traditionally fitted within the concept of Cristaller's Central Place Theory. That being the hierarchical model of rural service centres. This model has historically fitted the Northern NSW regions development pattern with Murwillumbah representing the centrally located medium scale rural service centre and Lismore providing higher order regional services in health, law and commerce. This trend has changed in recent years with increasing mobility and more recently early retirement and semi retirement and easier access to communications and the internet has been some of the driving factors behind the growth in the Tweed's coastal areas. This coastal growth has broken the trend for the Tweed to follow the traditional model of rural service centres in Northern New South Wales, becoming a major regional city centre in its own right, with its shared economy with Coolangatta in South East Queensland and therefore is unarguably the Regional Capital on the NSW Far North Coast. For example, in 2011 the Tweed local government area had twice the population of Lismore local government area. Where Lismore's population was 42,766, Tweed's population was 85,105. This growth has primarily come from the coastal urban areas at Tweed Heads and in the coastal villages along the Tweed Coast. This high growth has led to unique social problems including retirees being isolated from social services and an increase in the social services economy (Murphy; 2002). These issues are demonstrated in the Tweed where there is a large intra shire migration from the rural areas towards Tweed Heads which hosts most of the medical services and aged care
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