Foresight Advises government about how to ensure today’s decisions are robust to future uncertainties 2

About Foresight

About Foresight ...... 2 This annual review summarises Foresight’s programme of work for 2012/13 Highlights of 2012/13 ...... 3 Foresight is the part of the Government Offi ce for Science, which is tasked with advising government about how to ensure that current policies are robust in the light Government Chief Scientific Adviser’s Foreword ...... 4 of future uncertainties. Foresight is led by the Government Chief Scientifi c Adviser, who reports directly to the Prime Minister and the Cabinet Secretary. Head of Foresight’s Report ...... 5 By working with a wide range of leading experts, Foresight combines the latest Completed Projects ...... 6 science and evidence with futures analysis to aid policy makers tackling complex issues by giving them a better understanding of the potential opportunities and challenges that lie ahead. Our work is used to stimulate and inform the Current Projects ...... 11 development of more effective strategies, policies and priorities at both national and international levels. Horizon Scanning ...... 12 Our main activities are: Global Food and Farming Futures ...... 16 • Two-year Foresight studies: in-depth projects which build a comprehensive evidence base on major issues looking 10–80 years into the future Further Impact of Past Projects – • Policy Futures Projects: shorter projects which provide futures and analysis of Flood and Coastal Defence 17 evidence to fi ll a specifi c gap in current policy • The Foresight Horizon Scanning Centre: which provides training, toolkits and networks to strengthen the capacity for futures thinking and shares best practice Key Expert Collaborators ...... 18 within and across government 3

Highlights of 2012/13

January – Foresight fostered closer interaction with the global scientifi c community by June 2012 – International summit on Improving Future Disaster Anticipation and Resilience hosted June 2012 participating in the Science and Innovation Network biennial conference held January 2013 by Foresight and the Government Offi ce for Science and attended by government by the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills and the Foreign and representatives and non-governmental international development organisations Commonwealth Office Publication of a working paper on MiFID II policy measures by the project on Foresight organised a high-level workshop in Accra in partnership with the Future of Computer Trading in Financial Markets Government of Ghana and the Global Forum for Migration and Development on migration and environmental/ Foresight promoted a UK/Australia collaboration at a symposium in Brisbane to raise awareness of international and Australian approaches to fl ood risk UK and international high-level stakeholders met to review the impact of the management in strategic fl ood risk planning and policy development Foresight report Global Food and Farming Futures Publication of the Foresight report The Future of Computer Trading in Financial Publication of the One-Year Review of the Foresight report Global Food and Markets – An International Perspective Farming Futures Foresight presentation on The Future of Computer Trading in Financial Markets to Foresight presented at the high-level UK/India Science and Innovation Council the Co mmittee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON), European Parliament

Westminster Forum Food Security 2012 – a major seminar taking forward the Publication of the One-Year Review of the Foresight report Migration and Global Foresight project on Global Food and Farming Futures Environmental Change – Future Challenges and Opportunities highlighted the breadth of international impact of this work

David Willetts, Science Minister, published a refresh of the Foresight report Technology and Innovation Futures reviewing the range of developments with the potential to support sustained economic growth in the next 20 years

Foresight presentation on The Future of Computer Trading in Financial Markets to the European Commission Joint Research Council

Publication of a Foresight Policy Futures report on Reducing Risks of Future Disasters

Foresight presentation on The Future of Computer Trading in Financial Markets to the European Securities and Markets Authority

Foresight Policy Futures report on Future Identities: Changing identities in the UK: the next 10 years is published

4 Government Chief Scientifi c Adviser’s Foreword

As we prepare for the challenges ahead, we must 2012 has also been the year of three new Foresight As I come to the end of my fi ve-year term in offi ce, I understand what those challenges are. 2012 was reports: The Future of Computer Trading in Financial have great pleasure in handing over to my successor, a dynamic year for Foresight futures work, which Markets, Reducing Risks of Future Disasters, and Sir . In the year ahead, Sir Mark will seeks to achieve just that – a better understanding of recently, Future Identities. Each provides analysis of lead a new Foresight study on the future of cities, complex major issues and actions need to respond the implications of a wide range of robust scientific whilst also overseeing the completion of a major to them, informed through the analysis of the best evidence to help us meet some of the major project on the future of manufacturing. science available. challenges of the next decade and beyond. I want to extend my thanks to the innumerable In the last fi ve years, I have published a number of The report on the Future of Computer Trading in colleagues nationally and internationally who, reports that provide a strong scientifi c foundation Financial Markets was commissioned to address through the Foresight programme, have turned their for “some of” the most urgent of those challenges. two critical challenges: the pace of technological considerable skills to some of the key challenges As the world’s population grows, urbanisation changes coupled with the ever-increasing complexity faced by this and future generations. Mental health continues and we face major demographic trends of fi nancial trading and markets; and the relative and wellbeing, migration, food security, fl ooding and against a backdrop of climate change, I am pleased lack of evidence and analysis to inform new computer-based fi nancial trading are just some of the that in 2012 this vital work continued to be used regulation currently being considered within the diverse topics which have come under the Foresight by governments and agencies nationally and European Union.The European Securities and spotlight.The undoubted success and impact of internationally to formulate effective policy designed Markets Authority (ESMA), and the Task Force on such projects could not have been possible without to help local populations. Microstructural Issues (encompassing a number of their support. European securities regulators) have already engaged Foresight has also formed high-level collaborations substantially with the findings. across a range of projects.This year alone it has worked with the African Union to address In November, I published the report Reducing Risks the spread of infectious disease; the UN High of Future Disasters.Today there are more people Professor Sir John Beddington CMG, FRS Commission for Refugees on global migration and at risk than ever from natural hazards, and this Chief Scientifi c Adviser to HM Government and disaster risk reduction; the Bank of England and the important work asked whether more can be done Head of the Government Offi ce for Science EU Commission on computer-based fi nancial trading to anticipate infrequent, high-impact events, and Professor Sir John Beddington CMG, FRS and the UK Government’s agri-tech strategy, in the to limit the destruction they cause. Already since Chief Scientifi c Adviser to HM Government and context of global food security issues. publication, the World Bank, European Commission Head of the Government Offi ce for Science and Cabinet Offi ce have been reviewing the findings, It has also worked with governments in China and while Research Council UK and other UK funders India, and at home with the Government’s Science of development research are now looking at the Minister to review the technologies and innovations research priorities highlighted. that will provide opportunities for UK growth in the next two decades. 5

Head of Foresight’s Report

This has been an exceptional Much of the year has been invested in the two-year Foresight will continue to work across government project on the Future of Manufacturing, sponsored over the next year, providing evidence to help tackle year. The Foresight team has by the Secretary of State for Business, Innovation some of the greatest challenges we face in preparing delivered three Foresight and Skills, Vince Cable, MP. We have built on our for the future. We will strengthen our relationships reports, all published in the previous experiences of bringing in some of the best with the Cabinet Offi ce and support the cross- last quarter of 2012, each of academic and industry expertise into policy making, government horizon scanning function, and continue consulting with more than 350 individuals to date. to expand our networks in government and beyond. which has a robust evidence This exemplifi es open policy making principles and I look forward to the challenges of 2013. base and looks forward provides a strong foundation on which to develop between 10 and 30 years. policy. Three workshops, in Berlin, Singapore and Washington, DC, will bring international perspectives These reports will inform to the analysis, which will report in the autumn thinking at the highest levels of 2013. in government, in other organisations and, in some In m aking our reports freely available Foresight aims to make our work highly accessible. The Foresight cases, internationally. The follow-up team ensures that even after report topics are diverse, ranging publication, our fi ndings are not only disseminated from the highly technical The widely, but also lead to tangible impacts. Working closely with governments, industry, international Future of Computer Trading in organisations and academia, a wide range of impacts Financial Markets to the Future has been achieved this past year, particularly in of Identity, where a wide range the topic of the future of migration and global Professor Sandy Thomas of evidence from the social environmental change. Head of Foresight sciences made a particular contribution. Completed projects 7

Computer Trading

The Future of Computer The project published a working paper in August effects of computer-based trading and incentivise Foresight fostered close relationships with EU 2012 which considered the costs, risks and benefits accident-avoiding practices and behaviour Commission offi cials and as well as national Trading in Financial Markets of six legislative proposals in the European Union’s regulators across the major EU countries and – An International Perspective • A larger role for standards: Implementation of Markets in Financial Instruments Directive MiFID accurate, high-resolution, synchronised timestamps regulatory communities in Asia and the USA to was published by Sir John under consideration by the EU Parliament, EU should be considered as a key means for helping promote the report’s findings. Beddington on 23 October 2012 council and EU Commission. analysis of fi nancial markets and presented to the UK and • Better surveillance of fi nancial markets: Software The work benefi ted in particular from the strategic ❝ Well-functioning fi nancial markets European Parliament. advice of the 29-strong High Level Stakeholder should be developed for automated forensic Group, composed of end users, leading practitioners analysis of adverse/extreme market events are vital for everyone. They The main fi ndings of the report were also presented and regulators including Paul Tucker, Deputy • Improved understanding of the technology: support business and growth to legislative Directors and Chiefs of Staff at the Governor of the Bank of England and Xavier Rolet, In the longer term, more needs to be done to across the world and provide US Senate Banking Committee and the US House CEO of the London Stock Exchange.. Overall, improve understanding of the effects of computer- important services for investors. Financial Services Committee. over 150 independent academics and over 350 based trading. The report suggests unlocking the industry experts from over 20 countries were power of the scientifi c community to play its This research provides evidence The report aimed to shed new light on technological involved, producing over 50 studies in the most role in addressing the considerable challenge of to policy makers concerning the advances which enable computer algorithms, rather comprehensive research on the subject to date. developing better evidence-based regulation effect of HFT on fi nancial markets, than humans, to drive high-speed stock trades, ❞ and which have transformed market structures in Project conclusions Early impact looking out to 2022. recent years. Professor Sir John Beddington The study found no direct evidence that computer- The topic and international scope of the report based high frequency trading (HFT) has increased How we did the project have resonated with the European policy and volatility in fi nancial markets, nor any evidence to legislative community where computer trading, and ❝ The most comprehensive effort This two-year project drew upon scientifi c evidence suggest it has led to an increase in market abuse. HFT in particular, are at the top of the regulatory to date to understand the from across the world to consider how computer- agenda. Foresight lead experts briefed the European computerized trading…the based trading will affect fi nancial markets globally However, it found that in specifi c circumstances Commission Joint Research Council in a workshop over the next 10 years. It was guided by a group computer-based trading can lead to market instability focusing on the role of science in fi nancial stability. committee’s findings are likely of leading experts, including Professor Charles and periodic illiquidity, and that policy makers are to become a touchstone in Goodhart and Andy Haldane, Executive Director of right to consider measures to address this risk. The project lead experts were also invited to global debates about how to Financial Stability at the Bank of England.The group present at the European Securities and Markets deal with the fast rise of high- was chaired by Dame Clara Furse. The report suggests immediate priorities for action Authority (the European Financial Regulator) Task to limit future market disturbances.These include: Force on Microstructural Issues.The Task Force speed trading firms. ❞ • Immediate evidence-based regulatory action: encompasses a number of European securities New York Times European authorities working together with regulators and delivers regulatory advice to the practitioners and academics should assess and Commission on topics related to algorithmic ❝ We should follow the example trading and HFT. introduce ways to manage the adverse side and model of the UK Foresight http://www.bis.gov.uk/assets/foresight/docs/computer-trading/12-1086-future-of-computer-trading-in-financial­ project on computer trading.❞ markets-report.pdf European Union Commissioner Michel Barnier 8 Red ucing Risks of Future Disasters

❝ The UK Research Councils welcome this report and look forward to working with the UK Collaborative on Development Sciences to The Foresight Policy Futures How we did the project Achieving this new culture will require action in three explore how we can help deliver priority areas: project Reducing Risks of Future Policy Futures projects aim to synthesise and its recommendations. As a fi rst • Improved forecasting of natural hazards: Disasters makes the case that supplement existing evidence on specifi c policy step NERC is funding a Hazard questions, and to put it into a form that highlights Hazard forecasting depends on expensive and the rising risk of disasters in the main issues for policy makers and other decision complex infrastructure to gather and analyse and Risk Science coordinator, developing countries can be makers in the public, private and third sectors. enormous amounts of data. Satellites and sensor with a view to expanding this role tackled with the effective use networks observe the planet, feeding data to across RCUK. He will work with of science. The catalyst for this project was the call in the supercomputers that run complex forecasting Humanitarian and Emergency Response Review led models.The report argues that if the next UK and international stakeholders by Lord Ashdown to make better use of science and generation of these facilities are to be affordable, to ensure science and engineering If effective action is not taken, millions more people technology in addressing disaster risk.The project careful consideration should be given to where in developing countries will be at serious risk from contributes to key information was overseen by a lead expert group of 11 senior infrastructure can be shared or co-ordinated disasters resulting from natural hazards.These requirements such as forecasting, representatives from academia, NGOs and the between countries disasters have impacts across the world through the private sector, chaired by Professor Angela Mclean risk assessments and best global connections of trade, family, commodity prices • Improved information about vulnerability to from the University of Oxford. It drew on more and security. hazards: The same hazard will have very different practices.❞ than 400 existing reports from around the world, impacts depending on the local context. To make Professor Duncan Wingham, CEO NERC commissioned 20 synthesis papers, and was guided an accurate forecast of disaster risk, detailed by a high-level summit of senior practitioners of and Chair UK Collaborative on information is needed about the vulnerability of Development Sciences disaster risk reduction. people and assets at a local level. The significant improvements needed can only come from Project conclusions engaging those at risk from the hazards. Emerging experience. The report argues for systematic and technology and traditional knowledge must both The project found that disaster and death are not routine evaluation of initiatives to reduce disaster be harnessed to build up a detailed picture from the inevitable consequence of greater exposure to impacts, and for the sharing of this evidence the ground up of where risk is highest, so that hazards. It is possible to stabilise disaster impacts, worldwide save lives and protect livelihoods if science is used decision makers can target their efforts effectively more effectively. However, achieving this will require • Improved evidence on what actions are effective Early impact a change in culture and a new approach. Everyone in reducing disaster risk: Even if disaster risk is with a stake in developing countries needs to play well understood, there remains the question of The report was well received, and fi ndings from the their part in reducing risk. what should be done to manage it. The report report are due to be presented to the World Bank, highlights some actions that are clearly effective, European Commission, UK Research Councils and but emphasises that there is often no robust the Government of India. evidence on whether an action is likely to reduce disaster impacts, or whether its benefi ts outweigh The UK Government Chief Scientifi c Adviser the costs. Because large disasters are rare, one chaired the Offi ce for Disaster Risk city or country cannot learn simply from its own Reduction Scientifi c and Technical Advisory Group. http://www.bis.gov.uk/assets/foresight/docs/reducing-risk-management/12-1289-reducing-risks-of-future­ disasters-report.pdf 9 Changing Identities in the UK: The Next 10 Years

This report makes the case How we did the project that people have many The Foresight study Future Identities – Changing different, co-existing identities. Identities in the UK: the next 10 years was commissioned to provide policy makers with a Hyper-connectivity, will have better understanding of how identities in the UK are a transforming effect on how changing. The project, carried out over a year and ❝ “Perhaps the most convincing overseen by 10 leading academic experts, considered we see ourselves and others example of multidisciplinary work • Social integration: The government needs in the next decade. The report a range of areas affected by identity, including social that I have ever come across.❞ to acknowledge and adapt to new forms of inclusion and mobility, education and skills, crime and highlights that to create effective communities, such as virtual communities, as mental health. It published 20 driver reviews. Professor Anthony Heath, Emeritus they emerge policy, government has to keep Professor of Sociology, University of Oxford up with how people’s identities The study has shown that traditional ideas of identity • Police and law enforcement: The police and will become less meaningful as boundaries between other organisations will need to take account of are changing. changing identities: for example, the legal system people’s public and private identities disappear, with While religion, ethnicity and nationality continue to will need to keep pace with developments and potentially wide ramifi cations for policy makers. be infl uential aspects of identity, rapid developments continue to ensure that people’s identities online in technology and social media are likely to overtake and offl ine are protected. Public data will become Project conclusions these established notions and enable people to more important for detecting patterns of criminal create more complex personas. Hyper-connectivity will have a transforming effect behaviour, but the large volume of data will make on how we see ourselves and others in the next location and analysis challenging decade. The benefi ts for identity offered by advances Violations of identity and privacy online will continue in communications technology are highlighted. Being to be an area of public concern. But changing • Government responsiveness: The speed of part of a hyper-connected society can increase the identities can also be a positive resource, building modern communications is increasing public pace and turbulence of social change. Increasing social capital and promoting wellbeing. expectations that government will respond quickly social plurality, where society is more diverse, and to change. Policy making across many different the blurring of public and private identities are also The report makes the case that the government areas will need to be more agile, taking into important emerging trends for the next decade. needs to be agile in responding to the challenges consideration how policies might affect different raised by changing defi nitions of identity, particularly groups, or individuals, at different times and places in the following areas: • Equality: To avoid new forms of inequality, universal levels of access to the internet and development of computer skills are essential http://www.bis.gov.uk/assets/foresight/docs/identity/13-523-future-identities-changing-identities-report.pdf Current projects 11 Future of ❝ The UK is an important manufacturing economy, but if we Manufacturing think about what manufacturing is going to look like in a few decades, it will be different from what we see today. Consider the technological The manufacturing sector The Foresight Future of Manufacturing Project is advances, changing business has a key role to play in examining how the UK can gain long-term future models and increased competition value from manufacturing activities by investigating from emerging economies we driving economic growth, areas of future uncertainty, up to 2050 where possible. particularly in driving exports The innovative evidence base and futures analysis have seen in the last 10 years. provided by the project will inform policy makers and productivity, and in The work is sponsored by the Secretary of State This project will help ensure that for Business, Innovation and Skills,Vince Cable, MP. throughout the course of the project and beyond, policies affecting UK manufacturing rebalancing the economy. helping the UK to maximise opportunities in A fi nal project report will put forward a range of activities are resilient to future This makes it increasingly options for UK policy makers to consider. manufacturing, mitigate risks and deal effectively important to understand the with future uncertainties. uncertainties.❞ The project is building a robust evidence base, Professor Sir John Beddington long-term picture, including using research commissioned specifi cally for the The project is due to publish its fi nal report in the potential impacts of project from leading UK and international experts autumn 2013. changes in such areas as the on a range of sociological, technological, economic, nature of manufacturing and environmental and political uncertainties. Additional valuable input from non-UK experts is being sought the role of manufacturing in via a small number of international workshops in the national and global Berlin, Singapore and Washington, DC. So far, the economy. project has engaged with over 350 academic and industry experts from 20 countries.

Work is being guided by a multidisciplinary lead expert group chaired by Sir Richard Lapthorne, Chairman of Cable & Wireless plc, with an industry High Level Stakeholder group chaired by Vince Cable providing strategic input. Horizon Scanning 13

Horizon Scanning

The Horizon Scanning Centre (HSC) in Foresight helps deliver long-term, futures analysis and capability in government. Our work with government departments and agencies of government improves the resilience of policy and decision making.

This year, Jon Day, Chair of the Joint Intelligence In government Capability Professional networks Committee, reviewed strategic thinking and horizon The HSC worked with a variety of departments The HSC trained more than 100 offi cials in futures HSC networks have thrived over the past year, scanning functions across government for the and agencies in 2012 to carry out internal horizon analysis in 2012, providing advice and coaching, sharing work and experience among analysts in Cabinet Offi ce. The Civil Service Reform Plan (2012) scanning projects on social mobility, identities, running networks for analysts and aiding strategy government, and exploring some of the key issues commits to ‘improving the ability to scan the horizon aviation, technology and innovation, and the or policy development.Training delivered by HSC facing the UK.The HSC is continuing to expand into better for threats and opportunities ahead’. HSC Government Science and Engineering professional for 2013 is being updated and integrated into the areas external to government, enabling external networks (Fusion and Heads of Horizon Scanning) community. These ranged from delivering workshops Civil Service Learning syllabus, with new materials organisations, academics and private sector contacts were integral to meeting that commitment. and facilitating events held by other government that refl ect the latest developments in tools and to share information, consult widely and gain access departments, to undertaking more in-depth work techniques. to the networks. to identify drivers of change and develop futures scenarios. In November 2012, the Minister for Universities and Science, David Willetts MP, published a report updating the HSC’s 2011 review Technology and Innovation Futures to identify new opportunities for UK growth.

http://www.bis.gov.uk/assets/foresight/docs/horizon-scanning-centre/12-1157­ technology-innovation-futures-uk-growth-opportunities-2012-refresh.pdf Foresight’s Impact 15 Migration and Global Environmental Change

The One-Year Review of this The fi nal report, published in 2011, highlighted how profound changes in environmental conditions, report was published in 2012. such as fl ooding, drought and rising sea levels, It highlighted the breadth will infl uence and interact with patterns of global of the international impact human migration over the next 50 years. The report of this research, through revealed that the major challenges associated with migration in the context of environmental change collaborative work with a range have been underestimated. By focusing solely on of major development partners, those who might leave vulnerable areas, we risk including UN High Commission neglecting those who will be ‘trapped’ and those who will move towards areas that are also at risk. But it for Refugees, Global Forum on also showed that migration can have a transformative The follow-up programme of work has included Work with United Nations organisations Migration and Development, role in helping communities adapt to environmental the following: Foresight provided a briefi ng for the UNHCR and pressures. This was a critical fi nding for policy makers International Organisation for attended the inaugural meeting of the Nansen working to avert costly humanitarian disasters in Work with the UK government (DFID) Migration, Organisation for initiative’s consultative committee focusing on an the future. Economic Co-operation and A workshop took place in Accra with senior inter-governmental exchange of experiences on the Ghanaian stakeholders from government, NGOs assistance and protection of people displaced due to Building on the foundations laid in the months Development, UNICEF and the and civil society organisations, which stimulated natural disasters. following publication, Foresight has continued to Department for International the development of policy briefi ngs on migration, work with major international stakeholders to ensure climate change and social protection to support In the coming months Foresight will be working with Development that the fi ndings inform initiatives at the country senior Ghanaian policy makers. Foresight and DFID the International Organisation for Migration (IOM) and regional levels. are now developing a similar event with the Indian to develop training materials for use by policy makers government and other Indian stakeholders in the Asia-Pacifi c region. Foresight will continue its work with DFID to explore opportunities to Work with the European Commission support country-level initiatives; in particular, in India in the fi elds of climate-resilient development and Following a major launch at the European urbanisation. We also look forward to contributing Commission involving the Government Chief to a UNICEF report to deepen our understanding Scientifi c Adviser, Commissioners and other senior of the links between youth, adolescents and children offi cials, Foresight worked with DG DEVCO and and migration in the context of environmental change. others to develop three papers to inform the Commission’s Staff Working Paper on Adaption scheduled for publication in early 2013. Foresight experts will develop papers on migration, the impact on urban destination areas, and the South Mediterranean region. 16 Global Food and Farming Futures

Nearly one billion people go to bed hungry every night. The Future of Food and Farming: Challenges and choices for global sustainability is a study addressing the consumption of the world’s natural resources at an unsustainable rate and the failure to meet the needs of the world’s poorest. The report set out the case for urgent action on several fronts and A review of the report’s impact, published in March In addition, the report has generated: • A high-level Foresight workshop on fertilisers, to 2012, highlighted that the study continues to have explore innovation in product development and • High-level debate with policy makers, researchers showed that policies on the signifi cant UK and international impact. use, the move towards sustainable consumption major global challenges of and other stakeholders, at the Westminster Forum and Foundation for Science and Technology in of resources, and the reduction of agriculture’s food security, climate change, The fi ndings from the Global Food and Farming May 2012 environmental impacts Futures project are being used to inform the economic growth and the • A collaboration with China, via the UK:China development of the government’s Agri-Tech eradication of poverty are Sustainable Agriculture Innovation Network, to Strategy, as part of its UK industrial strategy.This identify where in particular the report aligns with all inextricably linked. aims to harness and exploit the UK’s world-leading China’s priorities and to identify where it might agricultural science base to help deliver solutions usefully inform and aid development of policy and to the worldwide challenges of economic recovery, research agendas and action global food security, climate change and sustainable development. 17 Further Impact of Past Projects – Flood and Coastal Defence

This project looked at future Detection and Identifi cation of Infectious fl ood risks and fl ood risk Diseases management. The report, In the future, the UK and other countries cannot effectively manage the risks of infectious disease at Future Flooding, continues to their borders: they must be addressed at their source. inform debate and action eight years after its publication, a The report Infectious Diseases: Preparing for the testament to the robustness Future analysed the science and social context of the future long-term risks for plant, animal and human and relevance of the original health in the UK and Africa and set out how we analysis might develop integrated and innovative policies and technologies in response. The African Union (AU) There has been considerable international interest in commissioned Foresight’s lead African experts to the report in recent years, highlighting the potential develop the African Union Science and Technology benefi ts for supporting the transfer of lessons and Framework for the Detection, Identifi cation and techniques from the report. For example, Foresight Monitoring of Infectious Diseases in Africa, which supported an international symposium in Brisbane is founded on Foresight’s pan-African ‘vision’ and in September 2012 to increase awareness of calls for the creation regional networks of disease international and Australian approaches to fl ood risk surveillance. The Framework was endorsed by the management. In particular, the event explored how AU Executive Council at the January 2013 summit, the report could inform Queensland’s approaches an important step towards its implementation by on fl ood risk management and its strategic fl ood risk member states, regional economic communities planning and policy development. and other stakeholders.

International impact is also refl ected through the publication of a special issue of the Journal of Flood Risk Management which comprises a suite of papers developed through the Foresight-inspired China/ UK scientifi c cooperation project: Scenario Analysis Technology for River Basin Flood Risk Management in the Taihu Basin. Key Expert Collaborators 19

Key Expert Collaborators

Many academics, experts and High Level Stakeholder Group for • Kerim Derhalli, Managing Director and Global • Professor Charles Goodhart, Professor of Finance, the Future of Computer Trading in Head of Equity Trading and Head of Equities London School of Economics policy makers contribute to Financial Markets EMEA, Deutsche Bank Foresight’s work. Our lead • Andy Haldane, Executive Director for Financial • Paul Tucker, Deputy Governor, Bank of England • Olivier Osty, Deputy Head of Global Equities and Stability, Bank of England expert groups bring together Commodity Derivatives, BNP Paribas specialist from a wide range of • Martin Wheatley, Financial Services Authority, • Kevin Houstoun, Chairman, Rapid Addition; Managing Director (Designate), Consumer and • Andrew Bowley, Managing Director, Head of co-Chair, Global Technical Committee, FIX scientific and other disciplines Markets Business Unit Electronic Trading Product Management, Nomura Protocol Limited to ensure that our work is of • Dr Kay Swinburne MEP, European Parliament • Mark Northwood, Global Head of Trading, Fidelity • Professor Oliver Linton, Professor of Econometrics, London School of Economics the highest technical standard • Dr Adrian Blundell-Wignall, Deputy Director • David Harding, Chief Executive Offi cer,Winton and relevant to policy. A High- (Financial and Enterprise Affairs), OECD Capital • Dr Jean-Pierre Zigrand, Reader in Finance, London School of Economics Level Stakeholder Group (HLSG) • John Bates, Senior Vice President and Chief • Dr Ali Toutounchi, Managing Director (Index Technology Offi cer, Progress Software Funds), Legal & General Investment Management of relevant organisations in Lead Expert Group for the Reducing the public sector, research • Laurent Useldinger, Chief Executive Offi cer, ULLink • Stephen O’Connor, Chairman, International Swaps the Risk of Future Disasters and Derivatives Association community and business advise • Thomas Secunda, Founding Partner, Bloomberg • Chair – Professor Angela McLean, Professor of • Danny Truell, Chief Investment Offi cer, Foresight on the strategic • Jon Robson,Thomson Reuters Mathematical Biology, University of Oxford Wellcome Trust direction of projects and the • John McCarthy, General Counsel, Erco • Rowan Douglas, Chief Executive Offi cer, actions that should result from • Chris Marsh, Managing Director (Advanced Global Analytics,Willis Group; Chairman, Richard Gorelick, Chief Executive Offi cer, RGM • Execution Services), Credit Suisse Willis Research Network the the work. Membership of Advisors LLC • Stijn Claessens, Deputy Director (Research), • Professor Jan Willem Gunning, Professor of the lead expert groups and Nicholas Nielsen, Global Head of Trading, • International Monetary Fund Development Economics, Amsterdam Institute Marshall Wace HLSG are published in this for International Development section. • Rob McGrath, Global Head of Trading, Schroders Lead Expert Group for the Future of Computer Trading in Financial Markets • Professor Peter Guthrie, Professor of Engineering • Scott Cowling, Global Head of Scientifi c Equity for Sustainable Development, University of Trading, BlackRock • Chair – Dame Clara Furse DBE, former Chief Cambridge Executive Offi cer of London Stock Exchange and Xavier Rolet, Chief Executive Offi cer, London • a non-executive director of Legal & General plc, • Carolyn Miller, Chief Executive, Merlin Stock Exchange Amadeus IT Holding SA, Nomura Holdings Inc. • Professor Tim Palmer, Royal Society Anniversary • Dominique Cerutti, President, Deputy Chief Research Professor, University of Oxford • Professor Philip Bond, Oxford Centre for Industrial Executive Offi cer and Head of Global Technology, and Applied Mathematics • Professor Mark Pelling, Professor in Geography, NYSE Euronext King’s College London • Professor Dave Cliff, Professor of Computer The Honourable Ronald Arculli, Chairman, • Science, University of Bristol Hong Kong Stock Exchange 20

• Professor John Rees, Professor of Medical Lead Expert Group for the Future • Professor David Delpy, Chief Executive, • Ian Scott, Group Supply Director, Mulberry Education, British Geological Survey of Manufacturing Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Group plc. Council • Dr Emma Tompkins, Geography and Environment, • Chair – Sir Richard Lapthorne CBE, Chairman, • Terry Scuoler, Chief Executive Offi cer, EEF University of Southampton Ron Dennis, Executive Chairman, McLaren Cable & Wireless plc. • • Nigel Stein, Chief Executive, GKN plc. Brendan Gormley, Chief Executive Offi cer, Group Ltd. • • Professir Nicholas Crafts, Professor of Economics • Trevor Williams, Chief Economist, Lloyds Banking Disasters Emergency Committee and Economic History and Director of the • Warren East, Chief Executive Offi cer, ARM Group plc. Holdings plc. • Robert Muir-Wood, Chief Research Offi cer, Risk Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy Management Solutions Research Centre, University of Warwick • Mark Elborne, President and Chief Executive High Level Stakeholder Group for • Professor Steve Evans, Professor of Life Cycle Offi cer, GE UK & Ireland, General Electric Global Food and Farming Futures Lead Expert Group for the Future Engineering and Director of Research in Industrial Company • Chair – Jim Paice MP, Minister of State for of Identity Sustainability, Institute for Manufacturing, University • Ronnie Fisher, Director, Specialties General Agriculture and Food, Department for of Cambridge • Chair – Professor Chris Hankin, Professor of Manager, Pentagon Chemical Specialties Ltd. Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Computing Science and Director of the Institute Professor Anne Green, Professorial Fellow, Institute • • Mark Florman, Chief Executive Offi cer, British • Chair – Stephen O’Brien MP, Parliamentary Under- for Security Science and Technology, Imperial for Employment Research, University of Warwick Private Equity & Venture Capital Association Secretary of State for International Development, College London and UK Commission for Employment and Skills • Fiona Kendrick, Chief Executive Offi cer, Nestlé Department for International Development Professor Michael Hulme, Director, Social Futures Expert Panel • UK Ltd. • Professor Sir John Beddington, Government Chief

Observatory, an independent futures ‘think tank’ • Professor Richard Harris, Professor of Applied Scientifi c Adviser, Government Offi ce for Science (formerly Director of Applied Research, Henley Economics and Director of the Centre for Public • Tim Luke, Senior Adviser on Business,Trade and Management College and Fellow of the Institute Policy for Regions, University of Glasgow Innovation, No 10 Policy Unit • Dr Pedro Arcuri, Coordinator, EMBRAPA Labex Europe Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa for Advanced Studies, Lancaster University) • Dr Siavash Mahdavi, Chief Executive,Within • Professor Alan Hughes, Margaret Thatcher Agropecuária • Dr Adam Joinson, Reader in Information Systems, Professor of Enterprise Studies at the Judge Technologies Ltd. School of Management, University of Bath Business School and Director of the Centre for • Juergen Maier, Managing Director, UK Industry • Dr Tariq Banuri, Director, Division for Sustainable Business Research, University of Cambridge Development, UN • Professor Nigel Rapport, Professor of Social Sector, Siemens plc. Anthropology, St Andrews University • Professor Chris Lowe, Professor of Biotechnology • John Martin, Senior Vice President, Manufacturing, • Dr John Barrett, Deputy Director Policy and and Director of the Institute of Biotechnology, Research Division, DFID • Professor Anthony Heath, Professor of Sociology, Purchasing and Supply Chain, Nissan Motor Co. University of Cambridge Institute for Social Change, Manchester University • Geoff Mulgan, Chief Executive, Nesta • John Bensted-Smith, Director, Directorate-General • Dr Hamid Mughal, Executive Vice President, for Agriculture, European Commission • Professor Mark Levine, Professor of Social • Frances O’Grady, General Secretary,TUC Psychology, University of Exeter Manufacturing Engineering and Technology, Rolls • Sam Bickersteth, Head of Programme Policy Royce plc. • Dick Olver, Chairman, BAE Systems plc. Team, Oxfam • Dr Maureen Fordham, Principal Lecturer in • Sir John Parker, President,The Royal Academy Professor Joachim von Braun, Director General, Disaster Management, School of the Built and High Level Stakeholder Group for • of Engineering International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) Natural Environment, Northumbria University the Future of Manufacturing • Professor John Perkins, Chief Scientifi c Adviser, • Eckhard Deutscher, represented by Stephen Groff, • Professor Ann Phoenix, Professor and Co-Director • Will Barton, Head of Manufacturing,Technology Department for Business, Innovation and Skills Deputy-Director, Development Co-operation of the Thomas Coram Research Unit, Institute of Strategy Board Education, • Jeremy Pocklington, Director, Enterprise and Directorate, OECD • Jeremy Bentham,Vice President, Global Business Growth, HM Treasury • Dr Nina Fedoroff, Special Advisor on Science and Environment, Royal Dutch Shell plc. • Angus Robertson, Chief Executive Offi cer, Technology to the US Department of State • Lucy Thornycroft, Head of Industrial Policy, PowerPerfector Ltd. • Iain Ferguson CBE, Chief Executive,Tate & Lyle plc. Enterprise and Innovation, CBI • Rachel Sandby-Thomas, Director General, Business • Anne Guttridge, Supply Chain Manager, Grain and • Roger Connor, President, Global Manufacturing and Skills Group, Department for Business, Oilseeds, Europe, Cargill and Supply, GlaxoSmithKline plc. Innovation and Skills 21

• Brian Harding, Director, Food and Farming • Ross Warburton, President, Food and Drink • Chris Field, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Group, Department for Environment, Food and Federation Change (IPCC) Rural Affairs Lead Expert Group for Global Food and • Andrew Watkinson, Living with Environmental • Patrick Holden, Director, Soil Association Farming Futures Change (LWEC) • Michael Jacobs, Senior Policy Adviser to the • Chair – Professor Charles Godfray FRS, Hope • Alan Thorpe, Natural Environment Research Prime Minister Professor, Oxford University Council (NERC) • Professor Doug Kell, Chief Executive, • Professor Lawrence Haddad, Director, Institute of • Steven Wilson, Natural Environment Research Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Development Studies, University of Sussex Council (NERC) Council and Research Councils UK • Professor Ian Crute, Director, Rothamsted • Barrie Stevens, OECD Peter Kendall, President, NFU • Research • Goran Svilanovic, Organisation for Security and • Laurie Lee, Director,Agricultural Development, • Professor Jules Pretty, Environment and Society, Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Global Development Program, Bill and Melinda University of Essex • Madeleen Helmer, Red Cross/Red Crescent Gates Foundation • Dr David Lawrence, Head of Research and Climate Centre Dr Will Martin, Acting Research Manager, • Development, Syngenta • Robin Mearns,The World Bank Development Research Group,Trade,World Bank • Dr Camilla Toulmin, Director, International Institute • Jeni Klugman, United Nations Development • Dr Jeff McNeely, Chief Scientist, International for Environment and Development Programme (UNDP) Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN ) • Professor Sherman Robinson, University of Sussex • Veerle Vandeweerd, United Nations Development • Professor Richard Mkandawire, Head of the Programme (UNDP) Comprehensive African Agriculture Development High Level Stakeholder Group for Programme, New Partnership for Africa’s Migration and Global Environmental • Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum,World Health Development (NEPAD) Change Organization (WHO)

• Alexander Mueller,Assistant Director, General • Mehari Maru, African Confl ict Prevention Lead Expert Group for Migration and Sustainable Development Department, Food and Programme (ACPP) Global Environmental Change Agricultural Organisation (FAO) • Richard Edwards, Asian Development Bank (ADB) • Chair – Professor Richard Black, Head of the • Dr Namanga Ngongi, Director, Committee on School of Global Studies, University of Sussex Agriculture and Rural Development (AGRA) • Andy Bearpark, CARE International UK Professor , Chief Scientifi c Adviser, • Professor Neil Adger, Environmental Economics, • Nancy Roman, Head of Public Policy and • School of Environmental Sciences, University of Communications,World Food Programme (WFP) Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs East Anglia and Programme leader,Tyndall Centre • Professor Andrew Rosenberg, Director, Ocean for Climate Change Research Process Analysis Laboratory, University of • David Warrilow, Department for Energy and • Professor Nigel Arnell, Director,Walker Institute New Hampshire Climate Change for Climate System Research, University of • Alan Winters, Chief Scientifi c Advisor, Department • Dr Harsha Vardhana Singh, Deputy Director- Reading General,World Trade Organization (WTO) for International Development • Professor Stefan Dercon, Developmental • Paul Boyle, Economic and Social Research Council • Achim Steiner, Executive Director, United Nations Economics, Oxford University Environment Programme (UNEP) UK (ESRC) • Professor David Thomas, Head of School of • Heike Buss, European Commission • Ajay Vashee, President, International Federation of Geography and the Environment, Oxford Agricultural Producers • Frank Laczko, International Organization for University and Deputy Leader,Tyndall Centre for Migration (IOM) • Jan Kees Vis, Director Sustainable Agriculture, Climate Change Research Unilever • Kris Ebi, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate • Professor Andrew Geddes, Department of Politics, Change (IPCC) Sheffi eld University