ANNUAL REPORT 2019-2020

GOVERNANCE...... DOCUMENT ANDCOMMUNICATE FINDINGS..... RESEARCH ANDDEVELOP RISKMETHODS...... CORE ACTIVITIES...... Contents Key performance indicators...... SAC reviewers for 2019–2020 ...... reference...... Scientific AdvisoryCommitteeterms of CEBRA AdvisoryBoard members...... community awareness worldwide...... Chair’s report: Biosecurityat theforefront of Media articles...... Presentations...... Publications...... intervention utilisingCSPsensitivityanalysis. Impact andadoptioncasestudy:Risk-based Institutional contracts andconsultancies ...... Graduate students...... Deliverables andmilestonesachieved...... Continuing projects ...... Project summaries ...... 2019–2020 research projects...... Director’s introduction ...... 20 28 34 36 24 22 32 25 33 35 37 19 16 14 21 31 8 6 5 7

3 CEBRA ANNUAL REPORT 2019–2020 4 CEBRA ANNUAL REPORT 2019–2020 OUTLOOK...... FINANCIAL STATEMENTS...... Glossary...... 2020–2021 research projects...... Future outlook...... Auditor’s report...... CEBRA in-kindstatement...... Financial report summary ...... 48 44 49 46 50 43 45 47 Managing director, CEBRA Professor AndrewRobinson must continue. proactivity. Inthesetumultuous times,biosecurityremains of key importance. Ourwork members of theteam. Nathaniel, ChrisandNatasha havealready contributed greatly andbecome integral applied mathematician withaninterest ininvasivespecies.Since joiningCEBRA,John, Imperial CollegeLondon andabackground inoptimisation. DrChrisBaker isan and ballastwater systems.Natasha PagehasaMastersinScience (Computing)from Nathaniel Bloomfield hasworked onprojects relating topestsurveillance effectiveness background inclimate changeand biodiversity. FormerABARESquantitative scientist members totheteam.DrJohn Baumgartnerisacomputational ecologist witha and thenewengagementopportunitieswithourvaluedcolleagues andstakeholders. pleased, andwegreatly lookforward to continuing thisstrong, collaborative partnership an independentevaluation of thecentre, finalised inearly2020. We couldn’t bemore and wehopethat theministrywillalsoco-invest. Thisfollows thepositivefindingsfrom centre’s fundingarrangementwiththeuniversityfor afurtherfour years,toJune2025– to theincredible workdonebytheCEBRAteamthat thedepartmentwillcontinue the the USNational Academyof Sciences, amomentousaccolade. in thewideracademiccommunity; earlierthisyear, Professor JaneElithwaselectedto professional staff prove theirvalueagainandagain.Indeed,thisisalso recognised CEBRA. Anorganisation isonlyasgooditsmembers,andourresearchers and knowledge continues. of greater accessibility andconvenience. Importantly, thesharingof research and spontaneous interactionsthat canbirthideasandconnections, ithastheadvantage with Zoom asourauditorium.Althoughtheonlinespace islessconducive tothose Conferences andmeetingshavemigrated online: webinarsare replacing seminars, learned toworkfrom home,withthechallengesandopportunitiesthat thisentails. impact withasyetunknownrepercussions for socialwellbeing.Andmanyof ushave coronavirus andotherinfectious diseasesyethavehadanunavoidableeconomic restrictions imposedbytheVictorianstate governmenthavesavedmanylivesfrom but thepandemichasbrought withitincreases inmailandsomecargo volumes.The – andconcomitantly ourproductivity. has impactedtrade,travel,humanhealth,andperhapssurprisingly, thewaywedowork and consequently at graverriskfrom theimpactsof invasivespecies.AndCOVID-19 bushfires attenuate habitat, whichinturnpushesvulnerablespeciesclosertoextinction (perhaps more accurately, theKansasinfluenza!) withouttheinternet. hundred yearsto findadeadlierpandemic.Imaginenavigating theSpanishinfluenza these timesare unprecedented, butstudentsof historyonlyhavetolookbacka currently findourselves are, tosaytheleast,challenging.It’sa common claimthat summer’s bushfires totheinconvenient arrival of COVID-19, thetimesinwhichwe New Zealand’s Ministry for PrimaryIndustriesunderthecurrent deeds. last yearwiththeAustralianDepartmentof Agriculture, Water andtheEnvironment and welcome readers toourannualreport for theyearended30June2020–oursecond As managingdirector for theCentre of Excellence for BiosecurityRiskAnalysis,I Excellence forBiosecurityRiskAnalysis(CEBRA)annualreport. It ismyprivilegeandpleasure tointroduce the2019–20Centre of Director’s introduction I wanttothankallthestaff here at CEBRA for their continuing dedication and Finally, CEBRAisgrowing again!Thisfinancialyear, wewelcomed four new I notedthat thisisCEBRA’s second lastyearunderthepresent deeds.It’satribute In thesetimes,more thanever, Iamgrateful for thequalityof theteamhere at At CEBRA,thepandemichaschangedwayweinteractasacademicresearchers. The movementsof international anddomestictravellershavebeenlargely restricted, The biosecurityimplications of theserecent crisesare stillbecoming clear. Extensive The pasttwelvemonthshavebeenanythingbutbusinessasusual.From last

5 CEBRA ANNUAL REPORT 2019–2020 6 CEBRA ANNUAL REPORT 2019–2020 CORE ACTIVITIES 2019–2020 research projects

Biosecurity Plant Biosecurity Animal NZ MPI Division Division

Project ID: 190606 Project ID: 190801 Project ID: 19NZ02 Project Title: Estimating worldwide Project Title: Automated image analysis Project Title: Strength of evidence: brown marmorated stink bug risk of for identifying biofouling risk on vessels Definition and measurement establishment Division: Data and information TvG Division: Strengthening surveillance

JC NB

Project ID: 19NZ03 Project Title: Risk–return: Economic measurement of impacts TK Project ID: 190804 Project ID: 190803 Project Title: Re-evaluating management Project Title: Updating the Vessel Check of established pests including the biofouling risk assessment framework European wasp, Vespula germanica using Division: Data and information biocontrol agents Project ID: 170621 (continuation) Division: Data and information Project Title: Proportional value of SH EA interventions across pathways and layers of the biosecurity system Theme: Strengthening surveillance

AR

Biosecurity Compliance Biosecurity Operations Project ID: 180702 (continuation) Project Title: CEBRA research: Harnessing Division Division past and new work to improve uptake and impact of best practice risk analysis approaches in MPI Theme: Building scientific capability

SH Project ID: 190810 Project ID: 190808 Project Title: Advanced profiling for Project Title: Ensuring a whole-of- travellers and mail department approach to the prioritisation Theme: Data and information of biosecurity risk and the setting of regulatory intervention levels Theme: Data and information AR AR Key AR – Andrew Robinson SH – Susie Hester TK – Tom Kompas JC – James Camac EA – Edith Arndt NB – Nathaniel Bloomfield TvG – Tim van Gelder – Collaborative with NZ MPI

ANNUAL REPORT 2019–2020 CEBRA ANNUAL 7 8 CEBRA ANNUAL REPORT 2019–2020 the greatest numberof hitchhikers intoAustralia.ForBMSB the BMSBvulnerable tariff codes that are likely tointroduce establishment of BMSB. Furthermore, ourmodelidentified identified tobemostexposed toincursionandsubsequent contamination data, thesamesetof countries were parameterised usingBMSB-specific interception orgeneral data asacasestudy. (BMSB; Halyomorphahalys)andAustralianinterception illustrate thismethodusingbrown marmorated stinkbug partners obtaininganewhigh-threat pestordisease.We estimate theexposure risk of potentialandcurrent trading occurrence records andclimate suitabilitymodelsto that integrates border interceptions, tradedata, pest immediately detectedbyexportingcountries. emerging threats that are fastspreading andmaynotbe for slow-movingpestsordiseases,itisproblematic for approach isusefulfor allocating border surveillance goods are accepted byarecipient country. Whilethis (e.g. treatments orotherrestrictions) before thesusceptible rates and/orberequired tomeetadditionalobligations threat, itwilltypicallyexperience greater border inspection disease. Specifically, ifa country isknowntohavethe are madebasedonthecurrent distributionof apestor for goodssusceptible tohigh-threat pestsordiseases Commonly, traderestrictions andborder inspectionrates Project leader:DrJamesCamac establishment brown marmorated stinkbugriskof 190606: Estimating worldwide Project summaries Strengthening surveillance We found that, irrespective of whether themodelwas Here, wepropose anovelandpragmatic method project leaders. The report iscurrently underinternal review bydepartmental and subsequentpost-border movementof propagules. climate suitabilitywithoutaccounting for pathways of entry termed riskmaps),whichtend tofocus onmodelling standard invasivespeciesdistributionmodels (sometimes generally ignore climatic suitability, andisalsocontrary to This iscontrary tostandard pathway analyses,which secondly, thesuitabilityof theclimate at thedestination. the abilityof thepest/diseasetoreach a location; and, barriers toestablishmentof apestordisease:firstly, attempts toaccount for twofundamentalgeographic suitability models.Thiseffectively meansourmodel method explicitlyintegrates pathway analysiswithclimate all countries. Finally, andperhapsmostimportantly, our outwards focused, inthat itestimates exposure riskacross into anindividualcountry, ourmodelisbothinwards and models that focus onidentifyingriskpathways of entry pest ordisease.Third, relative tostandard pathway data). Second, theworkflowisapplicabletoanyplant other publiclyavailabledata (e.g.tradedata andclimate (e.g. interception records) andintegrate thesedata with the useof internallycollected border surveillance data a consequence, theanalyticalworkflowaimstomaximise with theend-users(biosecuritypractitioners)inmind.As the existingapproaches. First,ourmodelwasdesigned and 8708(motorvehicles)posedthegreatest importrisk. organism) codes 0810(fresh fruit),7318(screws andbolts) general contaminations (i.e.thepresence of anyforeign (seats), 8609(containers) and8701(tractors),whilefor specifically, thehighestrisktariffswere HS codes9401 This modelprovides substantialimprovements over These inspectionscanbeexpensiveasapotentiallylarge approaches requires conducting in-water inspections. challenging asevaluating theeffectiveness of different However, settingrequired managementactionsis of biosecurityrisksassociated withbiofouling of vessels. internationally consistent direction inthemanagement recommended developingregulations tosetanew, (Department of Agriculture andWater Resources, 2015) severe social,environmental andeconomic impacts. introduction of non-indigenousmarinespeciescausing Biofouling isrecognised asasignificantpathway for the Project leader:Nathaniel Bloomfield biofouling riskonvessels identifying 190801: Automated imageanalysisfor The 2015review of national marinepestbiosecurity expanded. biofouling riskof vesselsandallowinspectionactivitytobe will significantlydecrease thetime required toassessthe close toexpertaccuracy. Ifimplemented,thisinnovation and severityof biofouling inanimageof avesselhullwith convolutional neuralnetworkthat candetectthepresence and othersources wasusedtotrainaproptype deep inspections for biofouling. Data collected byDAWE, MPI to analyseimagestaken aspartof in-water vessel outcomes. to beexpandedandreduce thevariabilityinassessment identify biofouling riskonvesselswouldallowthisactivity expert. Thedevelopmentof anautomated systemto amount of data needstobeassessedbyabiofouling This project utilised modernimageanalysistechniques

9 CEBRA ANNUAL REPORT 2019–2020 10 CEBRA ANNUAL REPORT 2019–2020 for vesselownersand operators. Check, anonline pre-arrival biofouling riskassessment tool and Regional Development(WA DPIRD)developedVessel the Western AustralianDepartmentof PrimaryIndustries on itspriorbiofouling managementpractices. In2015, assess theriskassociated withavessel’sbiofouling based Water andtheEnvironment istorapidlyandconsistently biosecurity risksassociated withbiofouling of vessels. internationally consistent direction inthemanagementof 2015) recommended developing regulations tosetan Review of National Marine Pest Biosecurity(DAWR, prior toenteringAustralianwaters. However, the2015 for international vesselstohavemanagedbiofouling the QuarantineAct1908orBiosecurity2015 Currently, there are nolegislative requirements under environmental andeconomic impacts(MEPC, 2011). indigenous marinespeciesthat cancausesevere social, most significantpathways for theintroduction of non- (Barry etal,2015).Itiswidelyrecognised asoneof the vessels whichcanestablishpopulations at newlocations mussels, clams,fanworms)attached tohard surfaces on Biofouling isthetransportof sessileorganisms (e.g. Project leader:DrEdithArndt biofouling riskassessmentframework 190803: Updating theVessel Check A key businessneedof theDepartmentof Agriculture, Check. an updated riskassessmentframework basedonVessel the Vessel Check toolwiththeaimtodevelopandvalidate assumptions andriskfactors used inthecurrent versionof end of September2020. in early2020. Theworkisexpectedtobefinalised bythe reallocation of project resources toanotherCEBRAproject of the unexpectedchangeof direction andthetemporary The timelinesfor thisproject have beenextendedbecause iii. ii. i. three deliverables: plan for thisproject wasrevised andincludesthefollowing new Vessel Checkportalwasnotavailable.Thebusiness suitable data for thevalidation of theeffectiveness of the CEBRA project 190803could notbeundertaken because most of theactivitiesoutlinedininitialbusinessplanfor which wasreleased inNovember2019. Asaconsequence, developed asignificantlyaltered version of Vessel Check, and, togetherwithDHIWater andEnvironment (Australia), This project hastested,reviewed andrefined the In 2018, WA DPIRDundertookareview of Vessel Check Vessel Checkportal an assessmentof theriskmetricsimplementedin a simpleprocess modelof biofouling influence biofouling a comprehensive literature review of thefactorsthat 190804: Re-evaluating management • Non-market impacts of European wasp outweigh of established pests, including the market impacts. Without a formal management European wasp (Vespula germanica), program, the impacts on biodiversity, use of public using biocontrol agents places for recreation and human health were estimated to be more than four times the market impacts over a Project leader: Dr Susie Hester 50-year period. Established pests such as the European wasp (Vespula • Benefits of biological control outweigh the costs. Four germanica) are often overlooked as candidates for plausible biological control scenarios were chosen for management programs (eradication and/or containment) analysis. In all cases the introduction of the control because the use of traditional control techniques over agent reduced damages. very large areas becomes economically infeasible. Usually, Additional scientific research and experiments to the only economically feasible option, in these contexts, refine key parameter values is required before a formal is the use of biocontrol agents. However, the processes recommendation to introduce a biocontrol program can around approvals for release of biocontrol agents can take be made. Undertaking specific case studies to determine significant amounts of time and resources, especially if not only whether biological control should take place, but screening and testing of potential agents is required. where it should take place, would also provide additional This project investigated whether the European insights. wasp could be a candidate for a renewed management program, given the availability of a biocontrol agent, following successful screening and testing of an agent (Sphecophaga vesparum vesparum) in the 1980s. Whether a biological control program is worthwhile pursuing depends on the size of the benefits to industry, community and the environment from a reduction in European wasp abundance. Benefits and costs of European wasp management were explored using a decision analysis model. While the full set of parameter values for the population dynamics of the European wasp and the biocontrol agent were not readily available for Australia, plausible estimates of parameters based on New Zealand studies and available Australia data allowed the exploration of scenarios in which biological control would succeed in supressing the European wasp. Given the parameter values used in the modelling, the preliminary findings are as follows: • Impacts of European wasps are significant, and if allowed to continue spreading across Australia without a formal management program, damage could be in the order of $2.7 billion in present value terms over a 50-year time horizon. More than half of this is due to the damage that European wasps cause to the use of public places for recreational and sporting activities. ANNUAL REPORT 2019–2020 CEBRA ANNUAL 11 190808: Ensuring a whole-of-department approach to the prioritisation of biosecurity risk and the setting of regulatory intervention levels Project leader: Professor Andrew Robinson

The department develops and implements policies and programs to ensure that Australia’s agricultural, fisheries, food and forestry industries remain competitive, profitable and sustainable. An ability to effectively manage biosecurity risk, given the available operational workforce, is critical to the success of these activities. However, due to the increasingly complex and dynamic risk environment, the department faces substantial challenges when attempting to effectively prioritise and manage new and emerging biosecurity risks. In conjunction with the relevant policy divisions, the Biosecurity Operations Division (BOD) is responsible for delivering inspection, assessment, audit, veterinary, 190810: Advanced profiling for air quarantine, scientific and surveillance services, as well as travellers and mail community engagement and contact centre services. To ensure the optimal allocation of resources in real time, Project leader: Professor Andrew Robinson an improved prioritisation model that leverages the work The department faces significant challenges in the inbound previously undertaken by the department, including for air traveller and mail pathways due to increasing volumes risk–return resource allocation, is required as the current and the resources required to manage the increased arrangements are unsustainable and not sufficiently biosecurity risk that this presents. responsive in a dynamic risk environment. In 2009 the Quarantine Operations Division (now This project comprised two key phases to assist Compliance Division) commenced work with ACERA (now in establishing a whole-of-department approach to CEBRA) to develop a national profiling methodology to biosecurity risk prioritisation and operational resource support the reform to move from the mandatory at-border allocation. These were: intervention introduced under the Increased Quarantine 1. The assessment of selected items on an existing list Intervention (IQI) towards a risk-based approach for of low-return biosecurity risk management activities the management of biosecurity risks associated with currently delivered by BOD that may be reduced or the clearance of international travellers (as also applied stopped in the event of a greater priority activity. In to mail). The national cohort profiling methodology addition to the development of a list of low-return was subsequently endorsed on 10 August 2011. This activities, the first phase also identified potential data methodology has not been reviewed and remains the basis sources and options to establish a systematic approach for international traveller and mail profile development. to informing regulatory intervention levels, which Effective profiling is a critical control system and enabler would be delivered under a second phase, if approved. for the management and intervention of biosecurity risk 2. Scoping for the development of an evidence-based posed by the inbound movement of people, goods and biosecurity risk activity prioritisation model and mail at the border. The application of advanced analytics, associated resourcing tool to assist BOD, and thus the statistical methods and border system deployment department, in delivering a systematic and responsive for international air traveller profiling methods will be approach to the prioritisation of its operational activity critical for the department’s delivery of biosecurity risk in the longer-term. management outcomes into the future. The proposed combination of activities are intended to The objective of this project is to deliver improvements enable BOD to more effectively and efficiently address its to automated profiling that will further enhance the short-term need to reduce the demands on the regulatory department’s approach to baseline targeting of high-risk workforce to within the available resource base, while air travellers. It will guide the priority alignment of the simultaneously laying the foundations for (i.e. scoping the allocation of limited inspection resources at the border to feasibility of) a more sophisticated resource allocation tool. biosecurity risk. ANNUAL REPORT 2019–2020 CEBRA ANNUAL 12 New Zealand Ministry for Primary Industries 19NZ02: Strength of evidence: Definition 19NZ03: Risk–return: Economic and measurement measurement of impacts Project leader: Dr Tim van Gelder Project leader: Professor Tom Kompas

Some MPI decisions, such as import health standards This project was a continuation of work completed in decisions, are informed by MPI reports, and specifically CEBRA projects 1606E and 170621. The goal for this by the evidence and arguments presented in import risk year was to complete the pathway-based decision analysis reports. Since 2015 MPI has been taking steps support tool to provide performance information on the to improve the presentation of evidence and arguments relative contribution of various intervention measures to in these reports. These have included introducing biosecurity performance. Building on previous progress, the CASE (contention, arguments, sources, evidence) this stage involved developing the final part of the decision argument mapping framework as basis for drafting report support tool, to provide an overlay of the economic cost sections. To what extent have these steps improved the of interventions, giving an overview of the greatest returns presentation? And have these improvements made a (risk reduction) on investment, as well as developing difference to decisions? More generally, how does the and implementing workflows for the capture and use of manner of presentation of arguments and evidence in existing MPI data resources. reports affect decision-making on the basis of those The work undertaken this financial year focused on the reports? To the best of our knowledge this question has biosecurity organisms already evaluated within the earlier had very little attention. risk part of the project. These were Queensland fruit fly, To determine what difference, if any, CASE argument brown marmorated stink bug, brown mussel, red imported mapping has made to decisions, we have been qualitatively fire ant and especially gypsy moth, as the key case study. coding MPI reports for CASE instantiation, and comparing pre-2015 reports with post-2015 reports. Results so far suggest that CASE mapping has indeed been making a significant impact. To gain independent verification that these changes are improving the presentation of arguments and evidence, an additional study on Mechanical Turk using a “forced choice” methodology is being conducted. Combining our own coding results with the forced choice data should allow us to determine with reasonable confidence what impact CASE argument mapping is having on MPI reports. To assess the difference these changes may have made to decision-making, we are studying the alignment of import health standards decisions with the recommendations made in the relevant import risk analysis reports. The core idea is that the stringency of the requirements imposed by the import health standards decisions should reflect (or align with) the level of risk identified in the import risk analyses. It is hypothesised that there will be better alignment post-2015, due to the improved presentation of arguments and evidence. Coding of import health standards decisions in order to test this hypothesis is currently underway. Based on the results from these exercises, and additional qualitative insights gained in the course of the work, we will make recommendations regarding continuation and/or modification of the overall MPI strategy for improving decision making by improving presentation of arguments and evidence. The final report will be delivered in late 2020. ANNUAL REPORT 2019–2020 CEBRA ANNUAL 13 Continuing projects

The following projects were first approved in earlier work actions of the biosecurity system against a pest. plans, and continued during 2019–2020. The second year of the project (2017–2018): • established that New Zealand Ministry for Primary a. the simple framework advanced in the first year Industries was unable to capture the complexities of the interactions of post-border investment choices 170621: Proportional value of b. often, pre-border activities did not fall neatly into interventions across pathways and layers the three pre-border layers of the biosecurity system c. the structure of the three pre-border categories Project leader: Professor Andrew Robinson implied a hierarchy that was unsupported by reference to the activities being undertaken This project is an extension of project 1606E: Scoping the value of performance of interventions across New • trialled a two-stage approach whereby more detailed Zealand’s biosecurity system. snapshots of pathways will be used to estimate the The ministry’s biosecurity system faces increasing impacts of activities, and simpler representations pressure from significant increases in goods and (namely, pre-/at-/post-border) used as summary tools passengers, changing pathways and types of goods. • reviewed candidate bio-economic models to best With this increasing pressure, all layers of the system represent the impacts of post-border investment need to work together cost-effectively to maximise the • developed a suitable representation of uncertainty reduction of biosecurity risk to New Zealand under sharply • developed a means of handling pest groups efficiently, constrained resources. e.g., timber pests To increase the efficiency of biosecurity investment The project is now representing the system across three and to identify opportunities for substantial improvement, main areas (pre-, at- and post-border) with four main the ministry needs to determine the relative contribution pathways (craft, cargo, mail and passengers) overlaid of each layer towards biosecurity effectiveness. Presently, with the seven groups of biosecurity risk assessment/ there is no agreed framework or process available to management activities (anticipate, prevent, screen, prepare, evaluate the comparative value of biosecurity activities direct, respond and recover) as identified in CEBRA project implemented at intersecting sites across the biosecurity 1607A: The health of the Australia biosecurity system. system matrix. Without knowledge on the likely Year 3–4 of the project (2018–2020): effectiveness and costs of activities and control measures, risk management decisions on measures and allocation • tested and finalised the biological component of resources at different ‘nodes’ cannot be systematically (specifically, estimates of risk reduction across evaluated. intervention activities of the system) of the risk decision This project’s objectives are an extension to those provided support tool by running four priority pests identified by for 1606E: MPI though the matrix 1. develop a fit-for-purpose pathway-based framework • identified the need to handle marine and terrestrial using the seven layers of New Zealand’s biosecurity pests differently, because of their different approach system that will allow risk management decisions to be pathways and post-border dispersal vectors made on a risk–return basis • programmed an end-to-end case study example that 2. provide specific performance outputs for specified provided useful intelligence about the impact of the pests such as fruit fly, BMSB and selected pathways system upon the biosecurity risk of an example pest Comparative analyses will ultimately, after the completion (namely, gypsy moth) and propagated expert and data of this scoping project, appropriate generalisation of its uncertainty outcomes, and implementation of its recommendations: Year 5 of the project (2020–2021) will: • illustrate the value of the current allocation of • identify opportunities for enhancements, automation or biosecurity activities and resources simplification including acquisition and use of MPI data and resources • inform and justify reallocation of resources where needed • develop a scaleable version of the model that can be implemented by MPI • provide evidence-based information for adjustment of existing measures at specific nodes in the biosecurity system matrix Support communication of the holistic and interdependent nature of the biosecurity system to all stakeholders. The first year of the study (2016–2017) initiated a framework through which MPI could summarise the ANNUAL REPORT 2019–2020 CEBRA ANNUAL 14 on theoretical foundations from awiderange of disciplines ministry. Knowledgemanagement isadisciplinethat builds project focused onknowledgemanagementwithinthe ’knowledge base‘.Aspartof achievingthisobjective, the research projects, their outcomes andimpacts–aCEBRA in access for MPIstaff toatangible repository of CEBRA project wastodevelopamechanismthat wouldresult ACERA andCEBRA,theoverarching objectiveof this Industries capitalisesonexistingresearch outputsfrom To ensure that NewZealand’s Ministryfor Primary Project leader:DrSusieHester approaches inMPI and impactof bestpracticeriskanalysis past andnewworktoimprove uptake 180702: CEBRAresearch: Harnessing • • • repository wascompleted in 2020andnowallows: in thefuture. recommendations for improving knowledgemanagement culture at theministry ingeneral,andwere thebasis of the current useof CEBRAresearch andresearch structured interviewswithstaff were usedtounderstand from theknowledgemanagementliterature andsemi- related tomanagement andorganisational design. Insights Development of apubliclyavailableandsearchable investment from CEBRAprojects an improved understandingof theministry’sreturn on staff the efficientdevelopment ofnew projects byministry CEBRA research outputs the efficientcapture anddissemination ofexisting 15 CEBRA ANNUAL REPORT 2019–2020 Deliverables and milestones achieved

The following table lists the key project outputs. It also details which outputs will be submitted to the Commonwealth for endorsement in accordance with clause 3.9 of the funding agreement.

Table 1: Research outputs NZ MPI Project ID Output Milestone date For endorsement Status

19NZ02 1 Interim report 1 Jul 2020 Complete

2 Interim report 2 Aug 2020 In progress

3 Draft final report Oct 2020

4 Final report Nov 2020 ✓

19NZ03 1 Methodology and data sources identified Sep 2019 Complete

2 Provision of data from NZ MPI Dec 2019 Complete

3 Alignment of return methodology with risk model completed Jan 2020 Complete

Estimates of returns on investments for organisms completed, with an 4 May 2020 In progress emphasis on gypsy moth as a key case study

5 Final report delivered Jun 2020 ✓ In progress

180702* 1 Interview questions completed May 2019 Complete

2 Interviews with MPI staff June 2019 Complete

3 System design Aug 2019 Complete

4 System available for use and evaluation Oct 2019 Complete

170621* 1 Priority pests identified Sep 2018 Complete

2 Workshop to discuss analytical strategies Feb 2019 Terminated

3 Balance of twenty studies Jun 2019 ✓ Complete

*continuing projects

Strengthening surveillance Project ID Output Milestone date For endorsement Status

190606 1 Meeting between CEBRA and DAWE project leaders Jul 2019 Complete

2 Estimate country by goods trade volumes Dec 2019 Complete

3 BMSB climate suitability model Feb 2020 Complete

4 Draft country risk table and map provided to DAWE for comment Jun 2020 Complete

5 Draft final report sent to DAWE for comment Jul 2020 Complete

6 Draft final report sent to SAC Sep 2020 In progress

7 Final report Nov 2020 ✓ In progress ANNUAL REPORT 2019–2020 CEBRA ANNUAL 16 Data and information Project ID Output Milestone date For endorsement Status

190801 1 Literature review Aug 2019 Complete

2 Data identification and provision Oct 2019 Complete

3 Software scoping workshop Aug 2019 Complete

4 Preliminary software identification Oct 2019 Terminated

5 Building analytical pipeline Dec 2019 Complete

6 Project workshop Jan 2020 Complete

7 Refine and test analytical approach Mar 2020 Complete

8 Draft report (SAC) May 2020 Complete

9 Peer reviewed publication of report Jun 2020 In progress

10 Final report Jun 2020 ✓ In progress

190803 1 Literature review Aug 2019 Complete

2 Data identification and provision Aug 2019 Terminated

Data summary and strategic assessment (stop-go 3 Aug 2019 Terminated milestone

Testing of vessel check with existing data, 4 Oct 2019 Terminated including any data cleaning required

5 Sensitivity analysis of the inputs into the tool Nov 2019 Terminated

6 Workshop Dec 2019 Terminated

7 Amend and test assumptions Feb 2020 Terminated

8 In-depth literature review of risk factors influencing biofouling May 2020 Complete

9 Assessment of current metrics used in vessel check 2.0 Aug 2020 In progress

10 Expert elicitation workshops for weightings (if needed) Sep 2020 Terminated

11 Draft process model for biofouling on commercial vessels Sep 2020 In progress

12 Report writing and internal approvals Sep 2020 In progress

13 Final report Sep 2020 ✓ In progress ANNUAL REPORT 2019–2020 CEBRA ANNUAL 17 Data and information Project ID Output Milestone date For endorsement Status

190804 Review of European wasp management in 1 Aug 2019 Complete Australia

2 Meeting to discuss model and data Sep 2019 Complete

3 Simulation model: complete conceptual model Nov 2019 Complete

4 Meeting to discuss progress Feb 2020 Complete

5 Non-market valuation (benefit transfer) Mar 2020 Complete

6 Final report and recommendation Jun 2020 ✓ Complete

190808 1 Project initiation meeting Jul 2019 Complete

2 BOD stakeholder interviews Oct 2019 Complete

Divisional priority nomination (including 3 Dec 2019 Complete supporting data stocktake)

4 Desktop review/analysis Aug 2020 In progress

5 Preliminary framework for consultation Aug 2020 In progress

6 Feasibility scoping Aug 2020 In progress

7 Final report sent to DAWE Aug 2020 ✓ In progress

190810 1 Stocktake and horizon scan workshop Aug 2019 Complete

2 Updated profile development methodology using existing data Jul 2020 Complete

Survey sample sizes required to inform profiling are recommended to 3 Aug 2020 In progress DAWE

4 Possible triggers for a profile update are identified Nov 2020

Development of processes for semi-automated profile creation via R 5 (with preparatory scripts and reports), including self-reporting with Jan 2021 process checks

6 Examine the approach survey method Mar 2021 ANNUAL REPORT 2019–2020 CEBRA ANNUAL 18 RESEARCH AND DEVELOP RISK METHODS 20 CEBRA ANNUAL REPORT 2019–2020 Table 2:Current 2019–2020PhDstudents Australia andaround theworld. develop specialisttechniquestotacklereal-world problems, buildingbiosecurityriskanalysiscapacityandcapability in CEBRA continues tomake substantialinvestmentsinpostgraduate research training.OurPhDstudentsresearch and Graduate students Gayan Dharmarathne Nayomi Attanyake Thiripura Vino Student PhDStudents Current Exploring the statistical aspects of expert-elicited experiments Exploring thestatistical aspectsofexpert-elicited Efficient estimationofhazardcut-points forrisk-basedfleetmanagement Human mobilitymodelswithimperfectdata Title Professor Andrew Robinson Professor Andrew Robinson Professor Andrew Professor Andrew Robinson Professor Andrew Supervisor Table 3:Institutionalcontractsandconsultancies institutional contracts andconsultancies wehavebeenawarded, relevant tothe2019–2020financialyear. CEBRA conducts robust scientificanalysisandprovides expertadvice toarange of biosecuritystakeholders. Here are the consultancies Institutional contracts and Water andtheEnvironment of Agriculture, Department Protection Authority NSW Environment Protection Authority NSW Environment Water andtheEnvironment of Agriculture, Department Board Institute TrustCawthron Protection Authority NSW Environment Council Australian Research Council Australian Research Client (extended to 2019–2021 2016–2018 2017–2019 2020) 2020 2020 2020 2020 2019 Year African swine fever disease spread(AADIS)modeltoinclude Extended capabilityofthe Australian animal guide prioritisationofchemicalsinterest Developing anexpert-derived riskmodelto Detecting emergence ofchemicalconcern Australian ports in-water cleaningscenarioswithinkey concentrations ofcopperunderdifferent Theoretically predictenvironmental productivity andsecurity Aquaculture healthstrategiestomaximise technologies forecologicalsurvey Maximising thebenefitsofemerging DP160100745 Chemical riskanticipationtoolvalidation outcomes oftrade Predicting theecologicalandeconomic DP170104795 Project Amount (exGST) A$350 600 A$588 500 A$75 000 A$45 949 A$44 966 A$23 447 A$80 000 A$41 200 Dr RichardBradhurst Professor Andrew Robinson Professor Andrew Hanea Dr Anca Dr Libby Rumpff Dr KellydeBie Professor TomKompas Jason Whyte Dr Mr NathanielBloomfield Dr JamesCamac Hanea Dr Anca Robinson Professor Andrew Dr Aaron Dodd Dr Aaron Dr Joslin Moore Adjunct Professor Andrew (Sandy) Liebhold Robinson Professor Andrew Professor MarkBurgman Professor TomKompas Brendan Wintle Professor Jason Whyte Dr Robinson Professor Andrew Investigators 21 CEBRA ANNUAL REPORT 2019–2020 22 CEBRA ANNUAL REPORT 2019–2020 a givenpathway. the qualification numberandrisk-based inspectionrate for to choosethemostsuitableCSP parameterstodetermine make iteasierfor officers intheBiosecurityPlantDivision The project soughttodevelopadecisionsupport toolto fresh produce, nuts,grainsandprocessed seed. plant-product pathways, including driedfruitandherbs, requires inspection.Thishasbeenappliedonarangeof algorithms todeterminewhetheragivenconsignment The CBISusestwocontinuous samplingplan(CSP) Scheme (CBIS). further rollout of theCompliance BasedIntervention risk-based inspectionprotocols at theborder, including information could enhance implementation of biosecurity This project setouttoinvestigate howdiversetypesof compliance rates, and thusapproach rates at the border. chains that maydecrease orincrease biosecurityrisks, of understandingaboutcharacteristicsof importsupply based interventionprotocols isoften limitedbyalack The department’sabilitytoimplementbiosecurityrisk- sensitivity analysis Risk-based interventionutilisingCSP Impact andadoptioncasestudy: The decisionsupport tooltranslates astatistical problem suitable plantcommodities for CBIS(such asrecent corn simulation models that officers use whenassessing scenarios. For example,immature corn wasusedtotrialdifferent by officers inthePlantImportOperations (PIO)branch. thresholds andCSPmodes. to four questions onfailure definitions, maximumleakage compliance. To utilisethemodel,officers mustanswer up of inspections savedandtherate of post-interventionnon- parameters onpestleakagefor agivenpathway. if’ scenario testingtoshowtheeffects of different CSP choosing different CSPparameter choices. recommendations basedonthetrade-offs associated with officers canusethesensitivityanalysistooltodevelop strategies. Where limitedornoinspectionhistoryexists, interactively explore andassessalternative inspection into ariskmanagementsettingbyallowingofficers to The toolisbeingtestedinparallel totheABARES The toolisstillinitsinfancy andisactivelybeing tested It hasalsobeenenhanced toestimate thepercentage The toolprovides agraphicalrepresentation of ‘what CBIS sensitivity toolinaction define environmental risk. and theEnvironmental BiosecurityDivision’sworkto better model outputs,theValue of theBiosecuritySystem project Implementation Branch’sRisk-Return Resource Allocation branch’s workonpestriskanalyses, Biosecurity collaboration withthePlantSciences andRiskAssessment establishment andspread. monetary consequences associated withpestleakage, other policyareas tohelpinform quantification of thelikely There isaneedtodrawonadvice andevidence from Next steps pest leakage. establishment andspread costs associated withagiven the teamtoproduce range estimates for the likelihood, decisions onrenewing importpermits.Thisrequires threshold tolerances for non-compliance that willinform animal products. are alsoexploringtheapplication of this toolfor arangeof to verifyoffshore devitalisation treatment. AnimalDivision decisions. to officers asastand-alonetooltoguide preliminary CBIS assessmentmethodologybutwillalsobeavailable tool willbeconsidered for incorporation intothe routine tool andprovides confidence that itcanbe relied on.The analyses). Thisallowstimetotesttheboundariesof the This information willneedtobedevelopedor derivedin The tooliscurrently beingadaptedtodetermine PIO are triallingthetooltodesignsamplingprotocols 23 CEBRA ANNUAL REPORT 2019–2020 DOCUMENT AND COMMUNICATE FINDINGS Table withaveragecitations andInCitesimpactfactorasat 4:CEBRApublications 30/07/2020 summary please visitwww.cebra.unimelb.edu.au/engage/journal-articles. Our research ispublishedinarangeof peer-reviewed journalsandotherpublications. Forafulllistof publications, At CEBRA,wecollaborate withresearchers across manydisciplinestoapplyanddevelopscientificmethods. Publications . F forest provenancesintheCanadianboreal andhybridspruce white spruce Ahmed, S, LeMay, V, Yanchuk, A, Robinson, A, Marshall, P&Bull, G(2020)Meta-modellingtoquantifyyieldsof Whyte, identifiability: andstructural What? J(accepted)Modelstructures Why?How? MatrixAnnalsof2019 ScienceandPractice eradication onislands.Conservations Baker, CM&Bode, invasive M(inpress)Recentadvances species ofquantitativemodellingtosupport Key: Table 5:CEBRApublications withInCitesimpactfactorandcitations asat 30/07/2020 Hanea, AM, Nane, GF, Bedford, T &French, judgement inriskanddecisionanalysis.Springer T (2020) Expert analysis. Springer judgement’ inHanea, AM, Nane, GF, Bedford, T &French, judgement inriskanddecision S(eds)Expert French, S, Hanea, AM, Bedford, T &Nane, GF(2020) expert ofstructured ‘Introduction andoverview covariates. PLOSONE farm-level incorporating T (2020)Transmission forfoot-and-mouthdiseaseoutbreaks networkreconstruction Firestone, SM, Hayama, Y, Lau, MSY, Yamamoto, T, Nishi, T, Bradhurst, R, Demirhan, H, Stevenson, M& Tsutsui, N & Vickery, research, Press JA policyandpractice.CambridgeUniversity (eds)Conservation to evidence-based policy-making’ inSutherland, WJ, Brotherton, Peter, NM, Davies, ZG, Ockendon, N, Pettorelli, Arndt, E, Burgman, M, Schneider, K&Robinson, A (2020) ‘Working withgovernment –innovative approaches challenges. Epidemics andnew mathematicalmodelsofinfectiousdiseases: Recentdevelopments health policywithdata-informed Ross, JV, Shearer, FM, Tun, STT, Walker, J, White, L, Whyte, JM, Yan,Alahmadi, A,AWC &Zarebski, Belet, S,AE (2020)Influencingpublic Black, A, Cromer, D, Flegg, JA, House, T, Jayasundara, P, Keith, JM, McCaw, JM, Moss, R, IN PRESS/EARLY VIEW IN 2020 CEBRA publicationswithInCitesimpactfactorandnumberofcitations Calendar

2019 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 year CEBRAproject-specificpublications publications Total 16 27 16 29 29 39 26 citations Total 5866 1294 785 853 906 306 71 citations Average 217.26 49.06 44.62 29.41 23.23 11.77 orests 4.44 Average InCites impact factor 3.77 5.46 5.43 3.89 3.53 3.88 5.41 InCites impact factor 2019 2.976 2.221 2.74 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a CEBRA project-specific publications citations asat 12 14 11 6 3 8 8 30/07/20 No. of 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 25 CEBRA ANNUAL REPORT 2019–2020 26 CEBRA ANNUAL REPORT 2019–2020 finance. Econometrics Kim, JH&Robinson, hypothesis testinganditsapplicationstoeconomics and AP (2019) Interval-based . Scientific Reports computational geometry Keith, JM, Spring, D&Kompas, T (2019)Delimitingaspecies’ geographic range usingposteriorsamplingand Emerging Diseases sensitivityforthemegalocytivirus. Transboundary infectiousspleenandkidney and necrosisvirus surveillance Johnson, S, Hick, P, Australia Veterinary. Preventive Medicine into andpathway fishimported analysissystemforornamental ofarisk-basedsurveillance development Hood, Y, Sadler, J, Poldy, J, Starkey, CS, &Robinson, andthe AP (2019)Biosecuritysystemreforms recent climate change on terrestrial floraandfauna:Someemerging climatechangerecent onterrestrial Australian examples.Austral Ecology B, Joseph, L, Hill, SJ, Andrew, NR, Camac, JS, Bell, N, Riegler, M, Gardner, JL& Williams, SE (2019) Impactsof Hoffmann, AA, Rymer, PD, Bryne, M, Ruthrof, KX, Whinam, J, McGeoch, M, Bergstrom, DM, Guerin, GR, Sparrow, elicitationprotocols.QualityandReliabilityEngineeringInternational forstructured Application andevidence Hemming, V, Armstrong, N, Burgman, M&Hanea, inreliability: forecasts AM (2019)Improvingexpert . Safetypredictions Science Hanea, AM &Nane, GF2019Calibratingexperts’ probabilisticassessmentsforimproved S, Wheeler, S, Williams, J& Wyrwoll, fordecision-making.NatureSustainability P(2019)Realizingresilience Helfgott, A, Jiang, Q, Katic, P, Kompas, T, Little, R, Matthews, N, Ringler, C, Squires, D, Steinshamn,Grafton, S, R, Doyen, Villasante, L, Bene, C, Borgomeo, E, Brooks, K, Chu, L, Cumming, G, Dixon, J, Dovers, S, Garrick, D, Reports foot-and-mouth diseaseoutbreaks: A methodscomparisonoftransmission networkmodels.NatureScientific Firestone, SM, Hayama, Y, Bradhurst, R, Yamamoto, T, Tsutsui, T &Stevenson, MA(2019)Reconstructing Ecology Letters Ecology speciesrange(2019) Forecasting dynamics withprocess-explicitmodels:Matchingmethodstoapplications. Kearney, MR, McMahon, S, Phillips, BL, Regan, TJ, Rhodes, JR, Vesk, PA, BA,Wintle Yen, JDL&Guillera-Arroita, G Briscoe, NJ, Elith, J, Salguero-Gómez, R, LahozMonfort, JJ, Camac, JS, J, Giljohann, KM, Holden, M, Hradsky, BA, totrade.PLOSONE offoot-and-mouthdiseaseandtheimpactonreturn animals afteranoutbreak Bradhurst, R, Garner, G, East, I, Death, C, Dodd, A &Kompas, T (2019)Management strategiesforvaccinated Biology projects.Conservation conservation Wu, CH, Dodd, AJ, Hauser, CE&McCarthy, MA(2020)Reallocatingbudgets amongongoing andemerging effect andBayesianupdating.Safety Roscoe, K, Hanea, AM, Jongejan, R& Vrouwenvelder, modelling: systemreliability T (2020)Levee The length impactsofwarmingreduced uponwintersnow ablation. GeophysicalResearchLetters Marshall, AM, Link, TE, network analysis?ComputationalStatistics Marcot, B&Hanea, AM (2020)Whatisanoptimalvalue ofkink-foldcross-validation Bayesian indiscrete Nane, GF, Bedford, T &French, judgement inriskanddecisionanalysis.Springer S(eds)Expert Nane, GF&Hanea, AM (2020) ‘Building onfoundations: withRoger Cooke’The SEJinterview inHanea, AM, judgements. EcologicalApplications Hemming, V, Hanea, AM, Walshe, T &Burgman, ecological M(2020)Weighting andaggregating expert Bedford, T &French, judgement inriskanddecisionanalysis.Springer S(eds)Expert Hanea, AM &Nane, GF(2020) ‘An in-depthperspective ontheclassicalmodel’ inHanea, AM, Nane, GF, 2019 Robinson, AP, Rimmer, A, Tweedie, A &Becker, J(2019)Theimpactofpoolingsampleson Robinson, AP & Abatzoglou, JT(2020)Highersnowfall intensityisassociatedwith 2.139 3.998 4.188 2.304 1.551 1.718 4.105 12.08 3.998 8.665 5.405 4.497 0.744 4.248 2.74 1.87 n/a n/a 16 11 11 15 2 1 2 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 The Kompas, T, Chu, L, Van Ha, P&Spring, allocation forbiosecuritymeasures. D(2019)Budgeting andportfolio Management . Forestand species: Habitat implicationsforanendangered marsupial Ecology tree decline ofamidstorey Trouvé, R, Nitschke, CR, Andrieux, L, Willersdorf, T, Robinson, AP &Baker, PJ(2019) Competitiondrivesthe . Springer perspectives Computer simulationvalidation –Fundamentalconcepts, methodological frameworksandphilosophical Robinson, AP (2019) ‘Testing SimulationModelsUsingFrequentistStatistics’ inBeisbart, C&Saam, NJ(eds) within mixedconsignments. Neobiota Lane, SE, Cannon, RM, Arthur, AD &Robinson, AP (2019) Samplesizeforinspectionintendedtomanage risk inlarge dimensionalmodelling. EconomicModelling barriers Kompas, T & Van Ha, P (2019)The ofdimensionalityresolved’: ‘curse The effectsofclimate change andtrade Australian Journal of Economics Agricultural and Resource 2.643 1.386 3.17 1.93 n/a 0 1 2 0 4 27 CEBRA ANNUAL REPORT 2019–2020 28 CEBRA ANNUAL REPORT 2019–2020 Table 6:Presentations (talksandworkshops)givenbyCEBRAresearchers in2019–2020 biosecurity andriskanalysis.We regularly chair, address andfacilitate workshopsandconferences. meetings inAustraliaandinternationally, toshare ourresearch andstayknowledgeableaboutthelatest developmentsin Building networksandcommunicating ourresearch keeps CEBRAconnected andaccountable. Ourresearchers attend Presentations 2019 13 22 July–2 4–6 July2019 9–11 July2019 Dates ofEvent

August 2019

August

Data assimilationanditsapplications|Summerschool Accord | ANU seminar Global economicgains fromcomplyingwiththeParis to structured expert judgement expert to structured Introduction MOOC: Decision-makingunderuncertainty: RepliCATS workshop |SCOREprogram Topic |Event Romania Timisora, Canberra Romania Timisora, Netherlands Rotterdam, The Location TU Delft&Equinor Economics of Department and Arndt–Corden of PublicPolicy Crawford School and Equinor Technology (TUDelft) Delft University of DARPA Organisation Dr Anca Hanea Dr Anca Kompas Professor Tom Dr Anca Hanea Dr Anca Dr Anca Hanea Dr Anca Facilitator(s) 2019 5 5 September2019 2019 4–5 2019 3–6 2019 2019 4–8 November 31 31 6 23 11 October2019 19–21 13 November 2019 13 November 2019 13 November 2019 3–6 2019 3–6 September Dates ofEvent

September 2019 November 2019

October 2019 October 2019 October 2019

September September September

November Epidemiological modellingworkshop featuring AADIS system |BiosecurityQueenslandPartners Forum Public good researchandinnovation forthebiosecurity andNationalRoundtable Biosecurity Partners Forum national researchandinnovation agenda |Queensland andprogress conundrum onthe The technology inspection |IPRRG Annual Meeting Predictive propagule pressurereductionfrombiosecurity out? |IPRRG Annual Meeting Is biosecuritydoingagood jobinkeeping invasive pests impacts, mitigation andinequality and climatemodel|Engage workshop onintegrating emissions reductioninalarge dimensionalglobaltrade Economic damages, inequalityandthecostof country Footprints CommunityForum The benefitsofmoving toacleaneconomy|Lighter management system|BiosecurityResearchSeminar The development of Australia’s ballastwaterrisk Australian animaldiseasemodel(AADIS) Epidemiological modellingworkshop featuringthe economics) class Guest lecture| AGRI30043 (resourcemanagement Roundtable andNational | QueenslandBiosecurityPartners Forum APPDIS – The Australian plantpestanddiseasemodel RepliCATS workshop |SCOREprogram ANZ/ABNMS Conference toidentifybiofouling riskofvessels?learning |SRA– Neural networks, dronesand GPUs:Canwe usemachine discharge |SRA–ANZ/ABNMSConference Oh bother, where thou?Predictinglocationsofballast art (ABNMS) CombinedConference Australasian Bayesian Network ModellingSociety Analysis – Australia and New Zealand(SRA–ANZ)and manufacturing|SocietyforRisk customized furniture judgement expert forcostpredictionin Structured Pest RiskResearchGroup(IPRRG) Annual Meeting an invasive |International speciesundersurveillance A matterofsurvival: A simplemodelforthedetectionof Topic |Event Ottawa, Canada Brisbane Brisbane Poznan, Poland Poznan, Poland Germany Potsdam, Melbourne Canberra Fort Collins,Fort USA Melbourne Brisbane Melbourne Zealand Wellington, New Zealand Wellington, New Zealand Wellington, New Poznan, Poland Location Inspection Agency Canadian Food Queensland Biosecurity Government Queensland IPRRG IPRRG Research for ClimateImpact Potsdam Institute Lighter Footprints the Environment Agriculture,and Water of The Department Animal Health and Epidemiology USDA Centreof Melbourne University of Queensland Biosecurity SCORE SRA–ANZ SRA–ANZ SRA–ANZ IPRRG Organisation Dr RichardBradhurst Dr Aaron Dodd Dr Aaron Dodd Dr Aaron Raphael TrouvéDr Edith Arndt Dr Kompas Professor Tom Kompass Professor Tom Nathaniel Bloomfield Dr RichardBradhurst Dr SusieHester Dr RichardBradhurst Dr Anca Hanea Dr Anca Nathaniel Bloomfield Robinson Professor Andrew Hanea Dr Anca Robinson Professor Andrew Facilitator(s) 29 CEBRA ANNUAL REPORT 2019–2020 30 CEBRA ANNUAL REPORT 2019–2020 1 26 2020 10–14 February 31 19 February 2020 19 February 20 2019 26–28 November 2019 1–6 December 2019 1–6 December 28 January 2020 28 January 29 Dates ofEvent

June 2020

May 2020 2020 February 2020 January 2020 January from global warming | from globalwarming Australian ClimateRoundtable County inequality, Australia and theeconomicdamages The wicked risksofbiosecurity exposure-at-default simulationmodelling meetingonincorporatingwildlifepathwaysExpert in group meetingforEuFMDiS Advisory Agricultural andResourceEconomicsSociety(AARES) justified? |64th Annualconferenceofthe Australasian Under what conditionsisbiocontrolofestablishedpests Expert elicitationworkshopExpert EuFMDIS outbreaksimulationmodel Assocation Conference |New ZealandStatistical species undersurveillance A simplemodelforsize-at-detectionofaninvasive on ModellingandSimulation(MODSIM) Congress |23rdInternational species undersurveillance A simplemodelforsize-at-detectionofaninvasive International CongressInternational onModellingandSimulation WeedSearch: atollforweed eradicationprograms |23rd disease model(EuFMDiS) User group meeting fortheEuropeanfoot-and-mouth Topic |Event Webinar Radio interview Rome, Italy Rome, Italy Perth Canberra Podcast interview Zealand Dunedin, New Canberra Canberra Rome, Italy Location Roundtable Australian Climate RRR Radiostation EuFMD FAO UN EuFMD FAO UN Western Australia AARES, University of Australia New Zealand Food Standards EuFMD FAO UN Statistical Association New Zealand MODSIM MODSIM (EuFMD FAO UN) the UnitedNations Organisation of and Agriculture Food Disease withinthe Foot-and-mouth for theControlof European Comission Organisation Kompas Professor Tom Nathaniel Bloomfield Dr RichardBradhurst Dr RichardBradhurst Dr SusieHester Dr Anca Hanea Dr Anca Dr RichardBradhurst Robinson Professor Andrew Robinson Professor Andrew Dr SusieHester Dr RichardBradhurst Facilitator(s) Table 7:Mediaarticlescontributedby/quotingCEBRAresearchers in2019–2020 research tocommunicate onissuesfacingtheworld. CEBRA researchers readily share insightswithawiderreadership, drawingontheirreservoir of scientificknowledgeand Media articles 2 June2020 2020 24 April 2020 23 April 2020 7 April 2020 7 April 2020 7 April 2020 1 April 2020 1 April 30 March2020 30 March2020 30 March2020 30 March2020 30 March2020 30 March2020 2020 29 February 2020 22 February 2020 18 February 2020 17 February 2020 14 February 2020 28 January 2020 22 January 2020 8 January 16 December2019 Date environmental health The interconnectednessofhuman, animaland There’s noone-size-fits-all approachtoCOVID modellingmasksflawedVirus inputs lives andhelptheeconomy Modelling suggests going andgoing early hardwillsave COVID-19: The scytheandthehammer scythe? Is Australia’s thehammeror coronavirus strategy Coronavirus: Hopefulsigns butcautionadvised slow thespread Coronavirus: We’re playing andit’s apart ourpart helping cases COVID-19 cautiondespiteslowing modellerwarns ofvirus Sums, germs andfear days Australia’s coronavirus cases settohit5,000incoming coming days ANU modellingshows COVID-19 casestohit5,000in despitesignsCOVID-19 growth wary iseasing Experts lives andhelptheeconomy Modelling suggests going andgoing early hardwillsave Political warfareover climatechange action you what itcosts Labor commitstonot-zeroemissionsby 2050, butcan’ttell The wicked risksofbiosecurity China tofast-trackbiosecuritylaw incoronavirus aftermath change? What arethefulleconomiccoststo Australia fromclimate flora andfauna(invited blogpost) The bushfirecrisis:implicationsfor Australia’s uniquealpine Tackling climatechange ina ‘post-truth’ world and it’s going tocost Australia billions, warn experts Ross Garnaut’s climatechange predictioniscomingtrue governmentMorrison delays $300mbiosecuritylevy Topic Melbourne Pursuit, The University of Times Canberra ReviewFinancial Sify Asia & The Pacific Policy Forum Times Canberra The Australian The Australian ABC News Asia & The Pacific Policy Forum Medical Express The Guardian ReviewFinancial The Conversation The Saturday Paper SBS News Melbourne Pursuit, The University of PostSouth ChinaMorning Institute SustainableSociety Melbourne Mountain ResearchInitiative Forum Asia andthePacific Policy ABC News The Age Publication/organisation Dr RichardBradhurst Professor TomKompas Professor TomKompas Professor TomKompas Professor TomKompas Professor TomKompas Professor TomKompas Professor TomKompas Professor TomKompas Professor TomKompas Professor TomKompas Professor TomKompas Professor TomKompas Professor TomKompas Professor TomKompas Professor TomKompas and NathanielBloomfield Robinson Professor Andrew Robinson Professor Andrew Professor TomKompas Dr JamesCamac Professor TomKompas Professor TomKompas Robinson Professor Andrew Staff member 31 CEBRA ANNUAL REPORT 2019–2020 32 CEBRA ANNUAL REPORT 2019–2020 GOVERNANCE research. Ilookforward toworkingwiththem aswe bring copious experience inhighly relevant applied Melbourne Professors JodieMcVernon andAnnaMeredith experience totheCAB. Additionally, Universityof Ormsby bringawealthof policy, technical andoperational board membersthrough itsrecent appointments. has beenabletoreplace the experience anddiversityof its domain. Inthiscontext, CEBRAhasbeenfortunate that it of interests andtechnical disciplinesinthebiosecurity requires that theCABberepresentative of thebroad range Agreement withDAWE that governsCEBRA’s operations present opportunityfor renewal andrefocus. TheDeedof remain ontheboard. peak plantproduction industrybody, andhasagreed to employment andisnowCEO of PlantHealthAustralia,the who joinedtheboard lastyear, recently changedher contributions toCEBRAovertheyears.MsSarahCorcoran, professional responsibilities. Ithankthemfor theirvaluable for reasons rangingfrom retirement tochangeof Hatfield-Dodds andMsChristine Reed alllefttheboard to board membershipduringtheyear. been challenging,asthere hasbeenconsiderable change its businessthrough visualonlinetechnology. Thishas Advisory Board (CAB)hasalso,for thefirsttime, conducted cohesion through theuseof electronic media.TheCEBRA have maintainedahighdegree of professional andsocial thrives oninteractionandcommunication. However, staff challenges for amultidisciplinaryresearch culture that moved toaworkingfrom homepractice. Thispresented mitigate impactsof thevirusinbothcountries. management practices introduced by governmentsto evident withCOVID-19, where itismanifest inthe risk biosecurity isacomplex challenge.Thishasbecome Australia andNewZealand bytheirislandstatus, managing incursion, establishmentandspread of pestsanddiseases. environments and agriculturalproduction systemsfrom assists bothcountries toprotect humanhealth,thenatural Zealand’s Ministry for PrimaryIndustries(MPI)–workthat Agriculture, Water andtheEnvironment (DAWE) andNew it undertakes onbehalfof theAustralianDepartmentof which CEBRAisfounded. Theyare central tothework the virus.Biosecurityandriskare thecore concepts on communities andindividualsgrapplewiththeimpactsof understood, asgovernments,healthsystems,economies, concepts of biosecurityandriskhavebecome widely As aconsequence of theCOVID-19 pandemic,the awareness worldwide the forefront of community Chair’s report: Biosecurityat Dr Robyn Martin,MrPeter GoodayandDrMichael Changes to theboard require some adjustment, but also Professor HelenSullivan,DrMarionHealy, DrSteve Like manyorganisations inthisenvironment, CEBRA Notwithstanding thenatural protection conferred on BSc (Hons),PhD JCUOA Dr ColinJGrant countries. enter thelastyearof thecurrent fundingcyclefrom both behalf of theCAB, Icommit ittothisendeavouraswe biosecurity protection inAustraliaandNewZealand. On to assistDAWE andMPItoachieveahighstandard of communities. IbelieveCEBRAiswellplaced tocontinue and challengingresponsibility for governments and the globe,managingbiosecurityisaconstantly evolving outputs byDAWE andMPI. especially pleasingtonotethehighrate of adoptionof its indictors establishedunderitsagreements. Ithasbeen terms of governance, CEBRAmetallthekey performance restrictions inthesecond half of thefinancialyear. In This wasdespitetravellimitations imposedbyCOVID-19 fifty workshops, conferences, seminarsand mediaarticles. to abroad audience through participation inmore than achieve systemimprovements. insights intoareas where biosecurityinvestmentcanbest endorsed byDAWE, will,whenadopted,provide valuable using agreed performance indicators. Bothprojects, or theperformance, of thesystemagainstrelevant criteria, project’ establishedaframeworkfor evaluating thehealth, foster aculture of regular evaluation reporting. The‘health assets protected bythebiosecuritysystemandaimsto evaluation of the costs andbenefits of maintainingthe system. The ‘valueproject’ establishedabaseline focussing onthevalueandhealthof Australia’sbiosecurity included completion of twostrategic three-year projects CAB membership,CEBRAhadaproductive yearthat continue totacklethecomplex challengesof biosecurity. As hasbeenseenwiththeoutbreak of COVID-19 across CEBRA staff alsodisseminated their research findings Despite thechangesinworkingenvironment and

33 CEBRA ANNUAL REPORT 2019–2020 34 CEBRA ANNUAL REPORT 2019–2020 *retired 2019–20board members CEBRA AdvisoryBoard members Name Professor TomKompas Robinson Professor Andrew Meredith Professor Anna Professor Jodie McVernon Peter TaylorProfessor Professor Pauline Ladiges Professor IanRobertson Professor HelenSullivan Ms Sarah Corcoran Dr MichaelOrmsby Ms ChristineReed Dr Robyn Martin Dr MarionHealy Mr Peter Gooday Dr SteveHatfield-Dodds Dr ColinGrant Position Board member(exofficio) Board member(exofficio) Board member(host) Board member(host) Board member(host) Board member(host) Committee Chair) Board member(Scientific Advisory Board member* Board member Board member Board member* Board member Board member* Board member Board member* Chair Organisation The University ofMelbourne Centre ofExcellenceforBiosecurityRisk Analysis, University ofMelbourne Director, CentreofExcellenceforBiosecurityRisk Analysis, The Head, Melbourne Veterinary School, The University ofMelbourne Immunity Director, InstituteforInfectionand Peter Epidemiology Doherty School ofMathematicsandStatistics, The University ofMelbourne Frontiers Director, ARC CentreofExcellenceforMathematicalandStatistical The University ofMelbourne School ofBioSciences Professor Emeritus, Botany Medicine, MurdochUniversity Professor Emeritus, Veterinary Epidemiology, College of Veterinary University Director, Crawford SchoolofPublicPolicy, The Australian National CEO, PlantHealth Australia New Zealand Industries Biosecurity ScienceandRisk Assessment, forPrimary Ministry New Zealand Industries Biosecurity ScienceandRisk Assessment, forPrimary Ministry of Department Agriculture, Water andtheEnvironment Division, Biosecurity Animal Secretary, Assistant First of Department Agriculture, Water andtheEnvironment Biosecurity PlantDivision, Secretary, Assistant First Economics andSciences Assistant Secretary, Australian Bureauof Agricultural andResource Economics andSciences Executive Director, Australian Bureauof Agricultural andResource Independent The compositionof theSAC is: • • • • • The role of theSAC isto: of allfinal reports. approves alldraft project plansandprovides anassessment The ScientificAdvisoryCommittee(SAC) reviews and of reference Scientific AdvisoryCommitteeterms psychology; philosophy; andstatistics. biosecurity; physical, mathematical andsocialsciences; fields of environmental, animalandplantsciences; a broad committee of memberscovering relevant chair: Professor EmeritusIanRobertson CEBRA projects, asrequested bythedirector. provide relevant advice toresearchers conducting Environment for endorsement to theDepartmentof Agriculture, Water andthe obtain peerreviews of final reports priortosubmission - - - based oncriteriaof: assist thedirector inevaluating research proposals

budget viability capacity/capability todeliver scientific andpracticalmerit for riskanalysis director. called at the discretion of thechairinconsultation withthe be conducted electronically. Formalmeetingsmaybe It isanticipated that mostof thebusinessof theSAC will The responsibilities of SAC membersare asfollows: • • • on SAC matters. The chairwillattend advisoryboard meetingstoreport the SAC. without obligation, toprovide advice toresearchers or proposals orinterimreports, andmaybeinvited, SAC membersmaybeprovided withcopies of project consideration. Reviews willbeforwarded toinvestigators for their proposals, andinterimfinal reports, asappropriate. appropriate SAC membersandothercolleagues on The chairwillseekadvice andpeerreviews from 35 CEBRA ANNUAL REPORT 2019–2020 36 CEBRA ANNUAL REPORT 2019–2020 SAC reviewers for 2019–2020 Emeritus Professor Richard Whittington Associate ProfessorBen White John WeissDr WardDarren Dr Reid Tingley Dr Professor ShashiSharma Professor John Rolfe Dr Craig Phillips Associate ProfessorRoger Paskin Dr HughMillar Professor SimonMcKirdy Dr JustinMcDonald Liebhold Dr Andrew Dr John Kean Dr StephenJohnson Professor PhilipHulme Dr Keith Hayes Dr Jonathan Happold Froud Dr Karyn Professor David Fox Professor John Edwards Dr ChristinaDevorshak Dr BrendanCowled Caton Barney Dr RobCannon Campbell Dr Arthur Professor OscarCacho Dr John Brennan Associate ProfessorMichaelBode Name The University ofSydney of Western AustraliaUniversity The Agriculture Victoria, ofJobs, Department PrecinctsandRegions Landcare Research, New Zealand Monash University Independent consultant Central QueenslandUniversity AgResearch LtdNew Zealand Independent consultant Hugh Millar& Associates PtyLtd Murdoch University IndustriesandRegionalDevelopment ofPrimary Department WA of United StatesDepartment Agriculture ForestService AgResearch LtdNew Zealand Industries ofPrimary NSW Department Lincoln University Commonwealth ScientificandIndustrialResearchOrganisation Ausvet Biosecurity ResearchLtd, New Zealand The University ofMelbourne Ausvet of Animal andPlantHealthInspectionService, UnitedStatesDepartment Agriculture Ausvet Center forPlantHealthScienceand Technology, of UnitedStatesDepartment Agriculture Independent consultant Monash University University ofNew England Independent consultant Queensland University of Technology Organisation Key performance indicators

Activity – Research Strategic Objective Accountability Rating Key Progress/Outcome To research and develop methods relevant to biosecurity Director Over performance On target risk by engaging a range of disciplines relevant to the On target analysis of biosecurity risk, to that the Australian and New Zealand governments remain at the forefront of practical Target at risk biosecurity risk assessment. Target not achieved Completed Key Performance Indicator Measure Officer Delivery Date Rating Progress/Outcome 1.1 Research project quality and At least 90% of Director, Ongoing 2020–2021 project proposals have been completion rates achieve a high project proposals are Biosecurity approved and MPI projects are currently standard approved, pending Research Team, under development budget allocations SAC At least 90% of Director, Ongoing The satisfactory completion of outputs output (milestones, business continues to track above 90% reports, systems, manager software, guidelines etc.) completed satisfactorily At least 80% outputs Director Ongoing The on-time completion of project completed on time deliverables is currently tracking toward the per year 80% target At least 90% of Director, Ongoing Projects continue to track on or below projects to be business budget delivered on budget manager 1.2 Research project s contribute Organisational H-Index Director Ongoing CEBRA’s H index is 38 positively to the University’s ranking CEBRA/ACERA’s combined H index is 75 Excellence in Research for Australia Number of Director Ongoing CEBRA staff have published numerous (ERA) ranking based on standard Publications per year journal articles badged as CEBRA work measures by CEBRA staff (details are provided in Table 5)

1.3 Biosecurity risk analysis capacity Number of research Director Ongoing CEBRA has supported two higher degree in Australia and New Zealand is higher degree students students over the past twelve months. enhanced enrolled These students have now completed/ graduated and CEBRA has taken on no further students as we are nearing the end of our funding agreement. Number of research Director Ongoing Two PhD students have graduated in the higher degree students past twelve months: graduated Nayomi Attanyake Gayan Dharmarathne Number of Director Ongoing Eight postdoctoral research fellows are postdoctoral research funded through the CEBRA grant and work fellows employed directly on CEBRA projects: Edith Arndt John Baumgartner Richard Bradhurst James Camac Aaron Dodd Anca Hanea Raphael Trouvé Jason Whyte There are two additional research fellows funded through the CEBRA grant and working directly on CEBRA projects: Nathaniel Bloomfield Natasha Page ANNUAL REPORT 2019–2020 CEBRA ANNUAL 37 Activity – Research Strategic Objective Accountability Rating Key Progress/Outcome To research and develop methods relevant to biosecurity Director Over performance On target risk by engaging a range of disciplines relevant to the On target analysis of biosecurity risk, to that the Australian and New Zealand governments remain at the forefront of practical Target at risk biosecurity risk assessment. Target not achieved Completed Key Performance Indicator Measure Officer Delivery Date Rating Progress/Outcome 1.4 Engagement and collaboration Director engages Director BRISC The centre’s executive management have between CEBRA funding bodies with DAWE (BRISC) meetings held been represented at each BRISC meeting and other organisations in planning and MPI to discuss on: to report on centre activities and to foster and conducting CEBRA research context and details of 5 Sep 2019 engagement with funding bodies projects research projects 4 Dec 2019 19 Mar 2020 22 Jun 2020

Director engages Director Ongoing The director visits MPI at least four times with the Ministry for per year to discuss projects and practices Primary Industries to (NB: video link used in place of physical discuss context and visit) details of research projects

At least three Director Ongoing No new collaboration agreements have substantial been executed in 2019–2020, however collaborations with collaborations continued with: other research The Australian National University organisations per year University of New England Scion Research, New Zealand Lincoln University, New Zealand

1.5 Peer review of all draft project Scientific Advisory Director, SAC Ongoing The SAC will review all submitted business plans Committee chair cases and provide constructive feedback to successfully reviews proponents to improve proposals and oversees revision of all project reports ANNUAL REPORT 2019–2020 CEBRA ANNUAL 38 Activity – Communications Strategic Objective Accountability Rating Key Progress/Outcome To document and communicate research findings to Director, Over performance On target governments and others engaged in biosecurity decision business On target making in order work to promote excellence in risk analysis manager, communications Target at risk PR Target not achieved Completed Key Performance Indicator Measure Officer Delivery Date Rating Progress/Outcome 2.1 An effective flow of media At least two Director, Ongoing CEBRA e-newsletter distributed quarterly information and publicity about informative media business and news items regularly placed on the objectives and achievements stories per year manager, website and social media of CEBRA Use of website, blogs communications CEBRA Facebook page and Twitter and social media PR account are regularly updated to increase brand awareness. An average of 1000 website page views per month. At least three working CEBRA staff have completed at least groups conducted and three workshops in the reporting period summaries completed (detailed information is provided in per year Table 6) 2.2 Regular involvement in national At least twelve national Director Ongoing CEBRA staff have made at least twelve and international conferences and presentations by presentations badged as CEBRA work similar forums CEBRA participants (detailed information is provided in (badged as CEBRA Table 6) work) per year At least two CEBRA staff have made at least six international international presentations badged as presentations by CEBRA work (detailed information is CEBRA participants provided in Table 6) (badged as CEBRA work) per year 2.3 Broad recognition of CEBRA as At least three Director Ongoing CEBRA staff have made at least a centre of standing in quality invitations to chair three plenary presentations (detailed research or host conferences, information is provided in Table 6) or participate in key advisory forums, or similar At least one CEBRA has hosted: international visitor Professor Birute Mikulskiene, Faculty per year of Politics & Management, University of Lithuania Davina Saccaggi, DAFF South Africa B3 Economics Workshop in October 2019 attended by Melissa Welsh (Scion, NZ), John Kean (Agresearch NZ), Michael Ormsby (MPI NZ), Rebecca Epanchin- Neill (RFF, USA), Andrew Liebhold (USDA Forest Service, USA), Eckehard Brockerhoff (WSL, Switzerland) At least one visit In September 2019 Professor Andrew to international Robinson visited and presented seminars laboratories by CEBRA to the Bundesinstitut Fur Riskobewertung personnel per year (BFR) and the Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife research (IZW) In Berlin, Germany ANNUAL REPORT 2019–2020 CEBRA ANNUAL 39 Activity – Adoption Strategic Objective Accountability Rating Key Progress/Outcome To improve the adoption of CEBRA outputs by Director, Over performance On target the Australian and New Zealand biosecurity government On target authorities in support of strengthening the CEBRA Advisory integrity of biosecurity systems based on risk Board members Target at risk management Target not achieved Completed Key Performance Measure Officer Delivery Date Rating Progress/Outcome Indicator 3.1 Use of CEBRA Each CEBRA project Biosecurity Prior to project Each business case in the workplan has a clearly materials is routine in proposal has at its Research Section approval articulated adoption/uptake section government biosecurity inception a clearly (DAWE) and MPI management articulated and measurable adoption/ uptake strategy (one page) Director to report on Director Ongoing Director provides summary of completed research completion of CEBRA findings to DAWE and MPI research outputs to DAWE and MPI DAWE and MPI CAB Biosecurity Twice per year Biosecurity Research Section confirms progress members to provide Research Section towards adoption reporting is on track. advice on adoption (DAWE) and MPI DAWE and MPI provide adoption summary report to of project outputs CEBRA Advisory Board biannually. to CEBRA Advisory Board twice per year, including details of transfer of capability 3.2 Achievement of a high At least 90% of Director, BRISC Ongoing The following reports were submitted for rate of research project submitted project endorsement: endorsement by DAWE outputs are endorsed 1505A final report by DAWE per year 1502D final report 1608C final report 170606 final report 170615 final report 170621 final report 170714 final report (phase 2) 170714 final report (phase 3) 170820 final report 180601 final report Endorsements received: 1505A (16/2/20) 1502D (20/3/20) 170606 (30/6/20) 170621 (17/4/20) 170714 Phase 2 (3/10/19) 170714 Phase 3 (26/6/20) 170820 (2/11/19) ANNUAL REPORT 2019–2020 CEBRA ANNUAL 40 Activity – Governance Strategic Objective Accountability Rating Key Progress/Outcome To manage CEBRA in accordance with the Director, chair Over performance On target funding agreement, strategic objectives and On target key performance indicators, taking account of relevant industry standards and best practice Target at risk guidelines Target not achieved Completed Key Performance Measure Officer Delivery Date Rating Progress/Outcome Indicator 4.1 Budget and workplan Submit to DAWE and Business 14 Jul The budget and workplan was submitted to DAWE and developed and MPI a budget and manager MPI on 12/7/19 approved annually workplan for research projects each financial year Review budget DAWE, MPI 31 Jul DAWE and MPI approved the budget and workplan on and workplan and 24/7/19 approve (subject to amendments) 4.2 Payment of funding in DAWE and MPI to DAWE, MPI 31 Jan, 31 Jul Invoices issued to: support of CEBRA pay CEBRA funding DAWE payments twice • Invoice No. 781157 issued on 3/7/19 annually • Invoice No. 791359 issued on 6/1/20 MPI • Invoice No. 781401 issued on 3/7/19 • Invoice No. 791408 issued on 6/1/20

The University Business Mar 2019 • $300 208 received from The University’s Chancellery of Melbourne manager Strategic Investment (DVCR) on 28/1/20 contributes $450 • $75 052 received from the Faculty of Science on 312 in funds and 14/2/20 $1 000 364 in-kind • $75 052 received from the School of BioSciences per annum, the on 31/2/19 latter being support • In-kind contribution has been calculated at $948 for CEBRA Staff, 260.50 for 2019–2020 including space for the CEBRA IT system maintenance and general administrative support 4.3 Provide regular reports CEBRA to provide Business 31 Mar, 31 • PR #18 was submitted to DAWE and MPI on to funding partners on DAWE and MPI with manager Jul, 30 Nov 30/7/19 CEBRA activities as progress reports as • PR #19 was submitted to DAWE and MPI on required in the funding set out in schedule 29/11/19 agreement 3 of the funding • PR #20 was submitted to DAWE and MPI on agreement 30/3/20 CEBRA to provide Business 21 Jan, 16 Jul • FR #12 was submitted to DAWE and MPI on DAWE and MPI with manager 12/7/19 a financial report • FR #13 was submitted to DAWE and MPI on for the preceding six 22/1/20 months biannually as set out in schedule 3 of the funding agreement. 4.4 Provide an annual CEBRA to supply Business Annual report: The annual report was submitted to DAWE and MPI on report on CEBRA DAWE and MPI with manager 30 Sep 30/9/2019 and the auditor’s report was submitted to activities and an annual report and Auditor’s DAWE and MPI on 15/8/2019 performance annually, auditor’s report as report: 31 Aug and an auditor’s set out in schedule report confirming that 4 of the funding CEBRA has managed agreement funding and maintained appropriate accounts and records ANNUAL REPORT 2019–2020 CEBRA ANNUAL 41 Activity – Governance Strategic Objective Accountability Rating Key Progress/Outcome To manage CEBRA in accordance with the Director, chair Over performance On target funding agreement, strategic objectives and On target key performance indicators, taking account of relevant industry standards and best practice Target at risk guidelines Target not achieved Completed Key Performance Measure Officer Delivery Date Rating Progress/Outcome Indicator 4.5 Provide a final report CEBRA to supply Business 30 Sep, 2021 Not required in the reporting period on Centre activities at DAWE and MPI manager the completion of the with a final report term of the funding for the term of the agreement agreement as set out in schedule 4 of the funding agreement 4.6 CEBRA Advisory Board CEBRA Advisory Board chair, 23 Aug 2019 To date, all meetings were held as indicated advises on broad Board meets four director 22 Nov 2019 direction setting for risk times per year with a 28 Feb 2020 analysis research minimum attendance 15 May 2020 of 80% of members (maximum of two members missing) Conduct one CEBRA Board chair, 15 May Board meeting #28 was scheduled to be held in Advisory Board every director, NZ Wellington NZ on 15/5/2020 but this meeting was second year in New member changed to an online Zoom meeting due to COVID-19 Zealand commencing restrictions. The NZ meeting will be rescheduled. 2018 The board comprises Board chair, Annual The board is comprised of an independent chair and a range of experience director review of members drawn from DAWE, MPI, the University of appropriate to membership Melbourne, a state jurisdiction and tertiary institutions the objectives of CEBRA, as set out in schedule 2 of the funding agreement 4.7 Conduct a twice yearly Twice yearly review Board chair May–Aug Review completed and presented at CAB meeting #24 review of advisory questionnaire 2019 on 31/5/2019 board performance completed by all with a view to achieving board members best practice in and discussed at quality of advice appropriate board and organisational meeting management ANNUAL REPORT 2019–2020 CEBRA ANNUAL 42 FINANCIAL STATEMENTS Financial report summary

CEBRA FINANCIAL STATEMENT 2019–2020

INCOME

Balance brought forward $323 684

Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment $1 807 000

Ministry for Primary Industries $377 546

Host contribution $450 312

Interest $9 915

SUBTOTAL $2 644 773

OPERATING FUNDS (REVENUE + BALANCE CARRIED FORWARD) $2 968 457

LESS EXPENDITURE

Salaries $240 031

Operations $10 979

Business development $152 520

Research contracts $2 033 434

SUBTOTAL $2 436 965

BALANCE $531 492 ANNUAL REPORT 2019–2020 CEBRA ANNUAL 44 CEBRA in-kindstatement TOTAL SUBTOTAL G Dharmarathne SUBTOTAL Ms EKecorius C Watts Ms Ms NPage Mr NBloomfield Ms KSchneider J Whyte Dr R TrouvéDr Hanea Dr A Dodd Dr A Dr JCamac Dr JBaumgartner Dr RBradhurst Dr CBaker E Arndt Dr Kompas Professor T Robinson Professor A Infrastructure costs: RHD student (on campus laboratory) $39000/FTERperannum Infrastructure costs:RHDstudent (oncampuslaboratory) $86490/FTERperannum(grantInfrastructure costs:staff(oncampuslaboratory) funded) andUniversityofMelbourne 100% 100% 100% 50% 55% 91% 96% 62% 25% 60% 50% 60% 35% 83% 40% 67% 50%

$19500 $948 260 $928 760 $51 894 $19 500 $86 490 $47 631 $78 631 $82 886 $53 283 $21 622 $51 894 $43 245 $30 272 $72 075 $34 596 $58 015 $43 245 $86 490 $86 490

45 CEBRA ANNUAL REPORT 2019–2020 46 CEBRA ANNUAL REPORT 2019–2020 Auditor’s report OUTLOOK 48 CEBRA ANNUAL REPORT 2019–2020 4 3 2 1 showed agrowth of approximately 5.2% perannum 2018–2019. However, thefive-yeartrend upto2020 a reduction of approximately 26%,compared with sea intoAustraliaduringthefinancialyear2019–2020, approximately 16millionpassengerarrivalsviaairand the AustralianDepartmentof HomeAffairs,there were with anuncertain outlookfor thefuture. According to detected for thefirsttimeinEngland. pest prioritylists.Thishighlydamagingwasrecently bug remains highonnational, state and international Strait andCapeYork Peninsula. Brown marmorated stink in CairnsandfallarmywormwasdetectedtheTorres and abroad. InFebruary, panamadiseasewasdetected have beenanumberof incursions,bothclosetohome by invasivespeciesare stillconsiderable. Recently, there remains ascience of vitalimportance. Therisksposed Biosecurity inAustralia,NewZealand andtheworld Future outlook volumes once restrictions are eased. a compensatory greater-than-usual increase intraveller forced tocancel holidayplans,the future yearsmaysee to enterandAustralianNewZealand residents remains uncertain. With short-termstaytravellersunable of international travellersandcruiseships emergency perioduntilDecember 17, restricting arrivals The Australiangovernmenthasextendedthebiosecurity community borders, similarly, remain closedtothewiderinternational https://www.immigration.govt.nz/about-us/covid-19/border-closures-and-exceptions https://auspost.com.au/business/marketing-and-communications/access-data-and-insights/ecommerce-trends https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/research-and-statistics/statistics/visa-statistics/live/overseas-arrivals-and-departures https://www.health.gov.au/ministers/the-hon-greg-hunt-mp/media/human-biosecurity-emergency-period-extended-by-three-months COVID-19 hasledtoadecrease ininternational travel 3 . Thefuture outlookfor traveller volumes 2 . NewZealand’s 1 . fresh relationship in2021! for the future. Look toseeushittheground runningwitha 2013–2021. We’ll alsobeinvestinginafew pastprojects as wecement thewonderfulcontributions of CEBRA checking processes and documentation –essentialwork loose endsandcheckingproject outcomes anddouble- Accordingly, animportantpartof ourworkwillbetyingup the departmentandministryunderexistingdeed. be thefinalyear of engagementbetweentheuniversity, analyse andbenefitfrom data andintelligence. Thiswill and screening toolsandhowourstakeholders can improving theeffectiveness of surveillance, diagnostics as ever. economy andagriculturalindustriesremains asimportant Australia’s andNewZealand’s people,environment, New Zealand’s Ministryfor PrimaryIndustries.Protecting Department of Agriculture, Water andtheEnvironment and well placed tocontinue itssupportof theAustralian increase isindomesticpurchases. in onlinecommerce According toAustraliaPost, there hasbeenasurge volume of mailhasincreased asaresult of COVID-19. Our research prioritiesfor 2020–2021are riskanalysis, In theface of this uncertain future, CEBRAstands Mail andfreight volumeshavealsobeenaffected. The 4 , althoughalarge portionof the 2020–2021 research projects

Department 2020–21 themes NZ MPI

Surveillance, Data and Risk analysis (assessment, management diagnostics and intelligence Project ID: 20NZ01 and communication) screening Project Title: Design a statistically valid pathway slippage audits system Division: MPI

AR Project ID: 19081002 Project ID: 20110801 Project ID: 20121001 Project Title: Advanced Project Title: Improving Project Title: Using pest profiling for travellers and the methodology for establishment likelihood mail consequence assessment of maps to inform multi-pest Division: Compliance amenity and environmental early detection surveillance Project ID: 20NZ02 pests designs Project Title: Design a Division: Biosecurity Plant Division: Biosecurity Plant framework for responding to inspection success or failure AR SH JC Division: MPI

AR

Project ID: 20100201 Project ID: 20110901 Project ID: 20121501 Project Title: Review of Project Title: Improved Project Title: Modelling the document assessment profiling of risks associated spread and control of African processes in relation to their with seed interceptions in the swine fever in feral pigs and Project ID: 17062102 management of biosecurity international mail pathway the epidemiological impact Project Title: System risk Division: Biosecurity Plant on domestic pig herds implementation of risk–return Division: Biosecurity Division: Biosecurity Animal Model Operations Division: MPI NB RT RB AR

Project ID: 20100401 Project ID: 2011101 Project ID: 19NZ02 Project Title: User Project Title: Environmental Project Title: Impact of consultation to guide uptake biosecurity risk assessment evidence on decision-making of, and improvements to, for conservation areas Division: MPI the spatio-temporal asset Division: Chief Environmental damage model developed Biosecurity Office Key during CEBRA Project AD – Aaron Dodd TvG 170713 Division: Biosecurity Policy AR – Andrew Robinson and Implementation SH – Susie Hester

AD TK TK – Tom Kompas JC – James Camac NB – Nathaniel Bloomfield RT – Raphael Trouvé RB – Richard Bradhurst TvG – Tim van Gelder ANNUAL REPORT 2019–2020 CEBRA ANNUAL 49 50 CEBRA ANNUAL REPORT 2019–2020 Zealand SRA–ANZ: Societyfor RiskAnalysis–AustraliaandNew SAC: ScientificAdvisoryCommittee PIO: PlantImportOperations MPI: Ministryfor PrimaryIndustries MEPC: MarineEnvironment Protection Committee IQI: Increased QuarantineIntervention IPRRG: International Pest RiskResearch Group FMD: foot-and-mouth disease Nations FAO UN: FoodandAgriculture Organization of theUnited mouth disease EuFMD: TheEuropean Commissionfor thecontrol of foot and and Regional Development DPIRD: (Western Australia’s)Departmentof PrimaryIndustries (precursor of DAWE) DAWR: Departmentof Agriculture andWater Resources DAWE: Departmentof Agriculture, Water andtheEnvironment CSP: continuous samplingplan CEBRA: Centre of Excellence for BiosecurityRiskAnalysis compliance-based inspectionscheme) CBIS: compliance-based interventionscheme(formerly, mapping) CASE: contention, arguments, sources, evidence (argument CAB: CEBRAAdvisoryBoard BOD: BiosecurityOperations Division BMSB: brown marmorated stinkbug ARC: AustralianResearch Council ANU: TheAustralianNational University (precursor of CEBRA) ACERA: AustralianCentre of Excellence for RiskAnalysis ABNMS: AustralasianBayesianNetworkModellingSociety and Sciences ABARES: Society AARES: AustralasianAgriculturalandResource Economics AADIS: Australiananimaldiseasemodel Glossary Australian Bureau of AgriculturalResource Economics

WEB http://www.cebra.unimelb.edu.au EMAIL [email protected] PHONE +61 (0)3 8344 4405 POST Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis (CEBRA) School of BioSciences, The University of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia 3010