New Zealand Faces the Real Danger of Covid-19 Variants Those Branches
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The English Fortnightly (Since November 1999) Issue 454 | February 1, 2021 | Free phone editor@ website facebook twitter linkedin 09 533 6377 indiannewslink.co.nz www.indiannewslink.co.nz /indiannewslink /indiannewslink /indiannewslink Indian Newslink Indian Business Awards 2018 Multi-Ethnic staff from India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Japan, Winner Tonga, Iraq, Samoa and China Supreme Business of the Year Business Excellence in Marketing Raj Pardeep Singh Shyama Sharma Best Employer of Choice Specialists in Sale and Purchase of Property & Business, Leases, Principal Partner Barrister and Solicitor Best Medium-Sized Business Employment Law, Criminal Law, Family Law, Wills & Trusts, Immigration LLB/BA (Hons.) LLB/MIT/B.Com LLB/ DBM/ BA( Hons) Ashima Singh, Winner of the email: [email protected] Law- all types of visas and appeals (Initial Consultation Free) E: [email protected] E: [email protected] E: [email protected] Best Businesswoman of the year 2016 Ph: (09) 2799439 | Level-1, 31 East Tamaki Road, Papatoetoe, Auckland 2025 | PO Box 23445 Hunters Corner, Papatoetoe, Auckland 2155 | www.legalassociates.co.nz New Zealand faces the real danger of Covid-19 variants those branches. If we see 100 branches, we have very few restrictions and it is Increasing calls to 50 of one variant and 50 of another, summer, R for the standard virus might reduce the number of grow into 200 branches, we would be around 2. A multiplicative effect of expect to end up with about 100 of each 70% would increase R to 3.4, while an international arrivals variant. additive effect would just add the same Whole genome sequences of viral cas- amount — 0.6 — seen in the restricted es sampled across the UK let researchers UK environment, putting R at 2.6. construct the family tree of the virus The difference between 2, 2.6 and 3.4 and watch it grow. What they observed may seem small. But after four weeks of was 501Y-V1 outgrowing other variants: spread starting from one case it could be Dr David Welch the split was more like 115 501Y-V1 the difference between 30, 120 and 450 branches and 85 of the other type. new cases. hen a Covid-19 case Of course, chance may also be What can New Zealand do now? was found in Northland involved here. The big factors that As New Zealand moves into the cooler on February 24, 2021, influence transmission are how we weather of autumn and winter, the Aotearoa’s second-longest respond as a society through preventive background R number will creep up. Wperiod with no detected community Director General of Health Dr Ashley Bloomfield (left) and Covid-19 Response Minister Chris measures. So far we have been somewhat lucky case came to an end. Hipkins (right) assure New Zealanders of the government’s prompt action to contain the spread of the Covid-19 Variant (Getty Images) Seasonal influences are increasingly with the community cases detected since ESR scientists worked late into being recognised, too. the first wave. With the notable excep- that night to obtain a whole genome As the UK variant spread, cases rose tion of the Auckland outbreak in August sequence and reported next day that as winter set in and students returned to 2020, the index case has always been it was one of the “variants of concern” education. Growth in case numbers was quickly identified, linked to the border, that we have heard so much about no surprise. and has not been a super-spreader. since mid-December 2020. But the higher growth rate for 501Y- While many of the individual cases So far, close contacts of the infected V1 has now been observed repeatedly. involved have done everything right in woman have tested negative. But this Estimates typically put it around 30-70% getting tested early, at some point our is the ninth community incursion more transmissible. “dumb good luck“ may run out, with a detected since August 2020. With a Rapid growth has also been observed case triggering a super-spreading event. makeshift Managed Isolation and in 501Y-V2 in South Africa, and genetic It has been estimated that around Quarantine (MIQ) system using hotels similarities suggest 501Y-V3 may also 15-20% of cases are super-spreaders and in the country’s biggest city, rather Community Checkpoints were set up as fears of Covid-19 community spread increased share this trait. these cause 70% to 90% of infections. than purpose-built facilities, further (Stuff on Twitter) The known unknowns Seeing one major outbreak from nine community cases have been expected. seen multiple times in several countries, Before December 2020, there was We should be cautious about border incursions tallies with these And the increasing prevalence of the what makes these three variants of only evidence that one variant, with transferring these numbers to other estimates. new variants worldwide meant it was particular interest is that they are spike protein mutation 614G might have environments. The most obvious and cheapest way inevitable that we would eventually see all accompanied by multiple other a higher rate of transmission. This is The UK was at a fairly high alert to reduce the risk of a rapid outbreak one in the community. Unless there are mutations that are not seen together now the dominant strain worldwide. level, which reduced the reproduction would be to reduce the number of peo- major improvements at the border, we elsewhere. But it might have achieved its current number (or R number, the average ple returning from high-risk countries can expect more cases. It is thought that the combined effect dominance by simple luck as it spread number of people each infected person (though not necessarily the number of How concerned should we be? of these mutations helps the virus to new and fertile grounds for transmis- is expected to infect) to about 0.9 for the people overall). The Three Variants spread more quickly and potentially sion. Scientists spent much of the last standard strain. We can also reduce the chance of Briefly, there are three variants that helps it evade parts of our immune year batting down suggestions that new The R number for 501Y-V1 was super-spreading events by adding extra all share a common mutation known response. Very early and incomplete mutations were changing the dynamics above 1, at around 1.2 to 1.5, hence post-quarantine testing requirements as 501Y in the region of the genome evidence suggests they may pose a of the pandemic. the claim it was up to 70% worse. It and having those leaving quarantine that codes for the spike protein, the part slightly greater risk of death than the Reports from the UK of 501Y-V1, the is not yet clear, though, whether the severely limit their contacts for the first of the virus that binds to our cells and original virus. first variant of concern, changed that. effect is multiplicative (meaning that week in the community. establishes infection. Risk of increased transmission Here was a variant competing with we multiply the observed R number by The three variants are most simply Trying to establish whether one many others in the same location and it 170%), or additive (we simply add the known as 501Y-V1 (or B.1.1.7, first Dr David Welch is Senior Lecturer at variant spreads faster than any other is seemed to be growing faster. difference between the higher and lower the University of Auckland. The above detected in the UK), 501Y-V2 (B.1.351, very difficult. Winter plays a role R numbers to make the adjustment, so article and pictures have been published detected in South Africa) and 501Y-V3 (P1 A huge range of factors influence We can think of viral transmission as up to 0.6 based on the UK data). under Creative Commons Licence. or B.1.1.28.1, first detected in Brazil). viral spread and there is a lot of random a tree, new infections being branches If there was an undetected outbreak Please read related stories under While the 501Y mutation has been chance involved. budding off and current cases the tips of in New Zealand right now, given that Homelink. 24 Roberta Avenue, Glendowie, Auckland 1071 Get into your First Home with as little as PO Box 82338, Highland Park, Auckland 2143 Phone: (09) 5336377 Email: [email protected] deposit* Take advantage of record-low interest rates To know your borrowing capacity call-Rachna Dave on 0800RACHNA Email: [email protected] 24 Roberta Avenue, Glendowie, Auckland 1071 Website: www.0800rachna.co.nz Mobile: 021-02290344 Phone: (09) 5336377 Email: [email protected] Toll-Free: 0800RACHNA (0800 722 462) *Subject to lending Terms and Conditions 02 Homelink FEBRUARY 1, 2021 Experts say Covid Variant threatens lockdown in New Zealand Professors Michael Plank & Shaun Hendy same way as the original one: through close contacts between ith new, more people, especially in crowded or infectious variants poorly ventilated environments. of Covid-19 detected This means all the tools that we around the world, and have developed to fight the virus Wat New Zealand’s border, the risk will still work. These include testing, of further level 3 or 4 Lockdowns is contact tracing, masks and physical increased if those viruses get into distancing. the community. But any variant that is more trans- missible has a higher R number. These include a variant called Roadblock in Christchurch Shutterstock/Lakeview Images Some countries have cancelled flights from the UK (Shutterstock/Rarrarorro) B.1.1.7 that has spread very quickly To control an outbreak, we need to bring the R number under 1 and so within the UK, with other new infected person with Covid-19 passes already had Covid-19.