MARATHWADA WATER SUPPLY

MASTER PLAN

Water Supply Master Plan For

MARATHWADA WATER SUPPLY MASTER PLAN

IDENTIFICATION TABLE

Client/Project owner Jeevan Pradhikaran (MJP)

Project Marathwada Water Supply Master Plan

Study Report 3.1 : Population and water demand projections

Date Version 1 :04/09/2018 ; version 2 : 6/11/2018 • Report 3 _ Population and water demand projections NP File name • Report_3.1_Population_and_water_demand_projections _NP_5.11.18 Language English

Number of pages 112

APPROVAL Version Name Position Date Signature Modifications Niv Chief Production 04/09/2018 Pintow Engineer Yaron Team 1 Check 04/09/2018 Geller Leader Yaron Team Approval 04/09/2018 Geller Leader Niv Chief Production 05/11/2018 Together with Pintow Engineer response to Yaron Team comments 2 Check 05/11/2018 Geller Leader documents Yaron Team submitted in Approval 05/11/2018 Geller Leader parallel

REPORT NO 3.1 : POPULATION AND WATER DEMAND PROJECTIONS

Water Supply Master Plan For Marathwada

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. SUMMARY OF CURRENT REPORT 1 1.1 POPULATION PROJECTIONS 1 1.2 BOVINE WATER DEMAND PROJECTIONS 7 1.3 PROJECTED WATER DEMAND OF THE INDUSTRIAL SECTOR 9 1.4 AGRICULTURE SECTOR WATER DEMAND PROJECTION 10 1.5 URBAN AND RURAL SECTORS WATER DEMAND PROJECTION 14

2. INTRODUCTION 16

3. DATA SOURCES 18

4. POPULATION PROJECTION 19

4.1 DATA AND ASSUMPTIONS 19 4.2 METHODOLOGY 20 4.2.1 EXAMINATION OF DATA RECEIVED 21 4.2.2 ARITHMETIC PROGRESSION METHOD 22 4.2.3 GEOMETRIC PROGRESSION METHOD 23 4.2.4 GEOMETRIC MEAN DEALING WITH NEGATIVE NUMBERS 24 4.2.5 INCREMENTAL INCREASE METHOD 25

4.3 DEALING WITH MISSING DATA 26 4.4 DEALING WITH POPULATION DECREASE RESULTS 27 4.5 RURAL POPULATION 28 4.5.1 CENSUS AND TRENDS 28

4.5.2 RURAL POPULATION PROJECTION 31 4.5.2.1 31 4.5.2.2 32 4.5.2.3 Hingoli 33 4.5.2.4 Jalna 34 4.5.2.5 Beed 34 4.5.2.6 Osmanabad 35 4.5.2.7 35 4.5.2.8 36

4.6 URBAN POPULATION 37 4.6.1 CENSUS AND TRENDS 37

4.6.2 URBAN POPULATION PROJECTIONS 40 4.6.2.1 Aurangabad 40

REPORT NO 3.1 : POPULATION AND WATER DEMAND PROJECTIONS

Water Supply Master Plan For Marathwada

4.6.2.2 Jalna 42 4.6.2.3 Beed 42 4.6.2.4 Nanded 43 4.6.2.5 Parbhani 44 4.6.2.6 Hingoli 45 4.6.2.7 Latur 46 4.6.2.8 Osmanabad 47

4.7 POPULATION PROJECTIONS– SUMMARY 48 4.7.1 PROJECTION RECIVED AND CALCULATED COMPARISON 53

4.8 LIVESTOCK (BOVINE) POPULATION 54

5. WATER DEMAND PROJECTIONS 56

5.1 DEFINITIONS: 56 5.2 METHODOLOGY 57 5.2.1 RURAL WATER DEMAND PROJECTIONS 58

5.2.2 URBAN WATER DEMAND PROJECTIONS 59

5.2.3 INDUSTRY WATER DEMAND PROJECTIONS 60

5.3 URBAN WATER DEMAND PROJECTIONS 60 5.3.1 AURANGABAD 61

5.3.2 JALNA 62

5.3.3 BEED 62

5.3.4 NANDED 63

5.3.5 PARBHANI 63

5.3.6 HINGOLI 64

5.3.7 LATUR 65

5.3.8 OSMANABAD 66

5.4 RURAL WATER DEMAND PROJECTIONS 67 5.4.1 AURANGABAD 68

5.4.2 JALNA 68

5.4.3 BEED 69

5.4.4 NANDED 69

5.4.5 PARBHANI 70

5.4.6 LATUR 70

5.4.7 OSMANABAD 71

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Water Supply Master Plan For Marathwada

5.4.8 HINGOLI 72

5.5 INDUSTRY WATER DEMAND PROJECTIONS 72 5.6 BOVINE POPULATION WATER DEMAND PROJECTIONS 74 5.7 DEMAND PROJECTION - SUMMARY 76

6. WATER SUPPLY PROJECTIONS 80

7. AGRICULTURE - WATER REQUIREMENTS 81

7.1 AGRICULTURE WATER REQUIREMENTS PROJECTION 88

7.2 MONSOON RAINFALL PROJECTIONS 88 7.3 EVAPOTRANSPIRATION PROJECTIONS 90 7.4 WATER REQUIREMENTS PROJECTION 91 7.5 WATER EFFICIENCY PROJECTION 94 7.6 WATER REQUIREMENT PROJECTION USING EFFICIENCY FACTOR 96 7.1 SUMMARY 97

8. LIVELIHOOD WATER DEMAND 98

8.1 PROJECT 99 8.2 UJNI PROJECT 100 8.3 LIVELIHOOD SUMMARY 102

9. WATER DEMAND SCENARIOS 103

9.1 DOMESTIC 103 9.2 DOMESTIC AND INDUSTRY 104 9.3 DOMESTIC, INDUSTRIAL AND LIVELIHOOD 104

10. SUMMARY 105

1.1 KEY UNDERSTANDING REGARDING DEMAND PROJECTION 105 10.1 DOMESTIC POPULATION PROJECTIONS 105 10.2 DOMESTIC WATER DEMAND 106 10.3 BOVINE POPULATION 107 10.4 INDUSTRY WATER DEMAND PROJECTIONS 107 10.5 IRRIGATION WATER REQUIREMENT PROJECTIONS 108 10.6 SECTORAL WATER DEMAND 109 10.7 DEMAND SCENARIOS 111 10.8 THE WAY FORWARD 112 10.8.1 TALUKAWISE SUSTAINABLE WATER BALANCE 112

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Water Supply Master Plan For Marathwada

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1. Marathwada - past and projections of urban and rural population 1981-2050 5 Figure 2. Marathwada - urban and rural population average yearly rate of change 1981-2050 (current and projections) 6 Figure 3. Marathwada - urban and rural population proportion change 1981-2050 6 Figure 4. – UN past population data and projection 1950-2094 7 Figure 5. Marathwada - water requirements from irrigation system (IWR) - (MM3) – using climate change and efficiency factors 13 Figure 6. Graphical representation of the relative portion of the area. 26 Figure 7. Marathwada Region – Districts Rural Populations Census data 1981 - 2011 29 Figure 8. Rural population between 1981 and 2011 and the linear rate of change 30 Figure 9. Growth rate in rural population, per district, for the period 1981-2011 30 Figure 10. Aurangabad district –population projection, Taluka wise 31 Figure 11. – population projection, Taluka wise 32 Figure 12. - rural population projections, Taluka wise 33 Figure 13. Average rate of population change in relation to the rest of the district population 33 Figure 14. Rural population projections per taluka 2020-2050 – 34 Figure 15. Rural population projections per taluka 2020-2050 - 34 Figure 16. Rural population projections per taluka 2020-2050 - 35 Figure 17. Rural population projections per taluka 2020-2050 - Parbhani district 35 Figure 18. Rural population projections per taluka 2020-2050 - 36 Figure 19. Marathwada – past (blue) and projected (orange) rural population 1981-2050 37 Figure 20. Marathwada urban population 1981 – 2050 38 Figure 21. Decadal urban population change per district 1981 - 2011 39 Figure 22. Urban population change between the decades per district 40 Figure 23. Urban population projections per taluka 2020-2050 - Aurangabad district 41 Figure 24. Urban population projections 2020-2050 - Aurangabad taluka 41 Figure 25. Urban population projections per taluka 2020-2050 - Jalna district 42 Figure 26. Urban population projections per taluka 2020-2050 - Beed district 43 Figure 27. Urban population projections per taluka 2020-2050 - Nanded district 44 Figure 28. Urban population projections per taluka 2020-2050 - Parbhani district 45 Figure 29. Urban population projections per taluka 2020-2050 - Hingoli district 46 Figure 30. Urban population projections per taluka 2020-2050 - Latur district 47 Figure 31. Urban population projections per taluka 2020-2050 - Osmanabad district 48 Figure 32. Marathwada - past and projections of urban and rural population 1981-2050 52 Figure 33. Marathwada - urban and rural population proportion change 1981-2050 52 Figure 34. Comparison between the received and calculated population projections 53 Figure 35. Aurangabad district – decadal year urban water demand projections per taluka (M3) – 2020-2050 61 Figure 36. Jalna District – decadal year urban water demand projections per taluka (M3) – 2020-2050 62 Figure 37. Beed District – decadal year urban water demand projections per taluka (M3) – 2020-2050 62 Figure 38. Nanded District – decadal year urban water demand projections per taluka (M3) – 2020-2050 63 Figure 39. Parbhani District – decadal urban water demand projections per taluka (M3) – 2020-2050 63 Figure 40. Hingoli District – decadal urban water demand projections per taluka (M3) – 2020-2050 64

REPORT NO 3.1 : POPULATION AND WATER DEMAND PROJECTIONS

Water Supply Master Plan For Marathwada

Figure 41. Latur District – decadal urban water demand projections per taluka (M3) – 2020- 2050 65 Figure 42. Osmanabad District – decadal urban water demand projections per taluka (M3) – 2020-2050 66 Figure 43. Aurangabad District – decadal rural water demand projections per taluka (M3) – 2020-2050 68 Figure 44. Jalna District – decadal rural water demand projections per taluka (M3) – 2020- 2050 68 Figure 45. Beed District – decadal rural water demand projections per taluka (M3) – 2020- 2050 69 Figure 46. Nanded District – decadal rural water demand projections per taluka (M3) – 2020-2050 69 Figure 47. Parbahani District – decadal rural water demand projections per taluka (M3) – 2020-2050 70 Figure 48. Latur District – decadal rural water demand projections per taluka (M3) – 2020- 2050 70 Figure 49. Osmanabad District – decadal rural water demand projections per taluka (M3) – 2020-2050 71 Figure 50. Hingoli District – decadal rural water demand projections per taluka (M3) – 2020-2050 72 Figure 51. Projected industrial water demand 2020 – 2050 73 Figure 52. Water demand projection by sector 2020-2050 77 Figure 53. Marathwada- water demand by sector as percentage of total demand ( %) 78 Figure 54. Marathwada districts – decadal water demand projections for 2020-2050 (M3) 79 Figure 55. Marathwada- urban water demand and supply (in MM3) 80 Figure 56. Seasonal CCA Water demand at plot area - (MM3) per district 85 Figure 57. Seasonal Water Requirements from irrigation system - (MM3) per District 86 Figure 58. Aurangabad districts: seasonal water required from irrigation system per taluka. 87 Figure 59. average monsoon rainfall projections per district 90 Figure 60. Marathwada - water requirements from irrigation system (IWR) - (Mm3) 93 Figure 61. Marathwada - Water requirements from the irrigation system (IWR) - (MM3) – using the efficiency factor 97 Figure 62. Projected water demand/supply by sector 2020-2050 (MM3) 110 Figure 63. Projected water demand/supply by sector 2020-2050 (MM3) 111

REPORT NO 3.1 : POPULATION AND WATER DEMAND PROJECTIONS

Water Supply Master Plan For Marathwada

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1. Decadal urban and rural population increases 1981 - 2011 3 Table 2. Urban and rural population projections for decades 2020 - 2050 3 Table 3. Past and projections of urban and rural population and their yearly average increase ( %) 1981 - 2050 4 Table 4. Marathwada bovine population by type classification 8 Table 5. Bovine population + demand per district 9 Table 6. Industrial water demand for 2018 and projections for 2050 (MLD) 9 Table 7. Marathwada industrial water demand projection 10 Table 8. Marathwada region abstract irrigation water use from SW resources per project size - Mm3, 2018 11 Table 9. Annual SW water for irrigation supply per sub basin - Mm3 11 Table 10. Irrigation water supply requirement projections (MCM) per season 13 Table 11. Applicable per capita norms for entitlement to DBWU - MWRRA 14 Table 12. Decadal urban and rural demand projections for 2020 – 2050 with relative percentage 15 Table 13. Urban and rural population projection received from MJP 20 Table 14. Rural population increases, from census data for decades 1981 - 2011 28 Table 15. Rural population projections for decades 2020 - 2050 36 Table 16. Urban population increase from census data for decades 1981 - 2011 37 Table 17. Urban population projections for decades 2020 - 2050 38 Table 18. Aurangabad Urban/council resident classification 40 Table 19. Jalna Urban/council resident classification 42 Table 20. Beed Urban/council resident classification 42 Table 21. Nanded Urban/council resident classification 43 Table 22. Parbhani Urban/council resident classification 44 Table 23. Hingoli Urban/council resident classification 45 Table 24. Latur Urban/council resident classification 46 Table 25. Osmanabad Urban/council resident classification 47 Table 26. Urban and rural population increase from census data for decades 1981 - 2011 49 Table 28. Urban and rural population projections - relation 50 Table 29. Past and projections of urban and rural population and their yearly average increase ( %) 1981 - 2050 51 Table 30. Urban and rural population projection received and calculated 53 Table 31. Marathwada bovine population by type classification 54 Table 32. Bovine population + demand per district 55 Table 33. Applicable per capita norms for entitlement to DBWU - MWRRA 58 Table 34. Criteria for rural demand (LPCD) : 59 Table 35. Recommended LPCD Supply for Designing Schemes 59 Table 36. Urban water demand and supply projections 2020-2050 61 Table 37. Rural water demand and supply projections 2020-2050 67 Table 38. Marathwada industrial water demand projection (Mm3) 73 Table 40. Bovine population + demand per district 75 Table 41. Water demand and supply projections for the bovine population for 2020-2050 76 Table 42. Districtwise water demand projections for 2020-2050 (in M3) 76 Table 43. Sectorwise water demand projections for 2020-2050 (in MM3) 77 Table 44. Percentage of water demand projections by sector 2020-2050 78 Table 45. Seasonal baseline requirements for agriculture (WR) and irrigation systems (IWR) 83 Table 46. Cultivated command area (ha) per season and district - 2017 83 Table 47. Potential area for irrigation (ha) per season in Marathwada 84

REPORT NO 3.1 : POPULATION AND WATER DEMAND PROJECTIONS

Water Supply Master Plan For Marathwada

Table 48. Total water requirement for agriculture per district (MM3) 84 Table 49. Water requirement for agriculture from irrigation systems per district (MM3) 85 Table 50. % of water required from irrigation system with relation to total agriculture water demand per district (water demand at CCA / water required from irrigation system ( %). 86 Table 51. Projected increase in monsoon rainfall per district for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050. 89 Table 52. Projected increase in evapotranspiration ( % increase from baseline) 2030, 2040, 2050 90 Table 53. Projected increase in evapotranspiration (MM3 increase from baseline) 2030, 2040, 2050 91 Table 54. Seasonal water requirements from irrigation system at root zone (30 % of IWR) - (MM3) 92 Table 55. Potential irrigation water supply requirements projections (in MM3) per season and per district 93 Table 56. Projected irrigation efficiency per water source 95 Table 57. Projected irrigation efficiency factor 95 Table 58. Projected efficient water requirements from irrigation (IWR) - (MM3) 96 Table 59. Livelihood - Rabi NCA* - (Ha and MCM/season) - Districtwise - Water allocation from Konkan project 100 Table 60. Livelihood - Rabi NCA* - (Ha and MCM/season) - talukawise - Water allocation from Ujni project 101 Table 61. Livelihood - Rabi NCA* - (Ha and MCM/season) - Summary - Water allocation 102 Table 62. Livelihood area (ha)- area increase during the Rabi season over time 102 Table 63. Total decadal domestic water demand projection 2020-2050 (MCM) 103 Table 64. Domestic sectoral relevant percentage over the years 2020-2050 ( %) 103 Table 65. Domestic and industrial decadal demand projections 2020 -2050 (MCM) 104 Table 66. Domestic, industrial and livelihood decadal demand projections 2020 -2050 (MCM) 104 Table 67. Domestic, industrial and livelihood relevant water demand percentage over the years 2020-2050 ( %) 104 Table 68. Urban and rural population projections for decades 2020 - 2050 106 Table 69. Urban and rural decadal demand projections for 2020 – 2050 with relative percentage 106 Table 70. Marathwada bovine population by type classification 107 Table 71. Current and projected industrial water demand 2018 - 2050 108 Table 72. Projected water requirements from irrigation (IWR) - (MM3) 109 Table 73. Domestic, industrial demand and iivelihood supply decadal projections 2020 -2050 (MCM) 110 Table 74. Water demand scenario projections 2020-2050 (Mm3) 112

REPORT NO 3.1 : POPULATION AND WATER DEMAND PROJECTIONS

Water Supply Master Plan For Marathwada

LIST OF APPENDICES

1 Marathwada Urban Population Census And Projections For 2020-2050 Per District And Taluka 2 Marathwada Rural Population Census And Projections For 2020-2050 Per District And Taluka 3 Marathwada Urban Water Demand Projections For 2020-2050 Per District And Taluka 4 Marathwada Rural Water Demand Projections For 2020-2050 Per District And Taluka 5 Marathwada Industrial Water Demand Projections For 2020-2050 Per District And Taluka 6 Marathwada Bovine Population By Animal Classification & Water Demand 7 Marathwada Bovine Population Water Demand And Supply Projections For 2020-2050 Per District And Taluka 8 Marathwada Irrigation Water Supply Requirements Projections For 2020-2050 (MCM) Per Season, Taluka And District 9 Marathwada Water Demand Per Crop per District (MCM) 10 Marathwada - Cultivated Command Area (Ha) Per Season, Per Taluka 11 Agricultural Water Requirements For Kaij Taluka In Beed District 12 CCA (Ha) And Water Requirements From Irrigation System Per Season - Taluka Wise 13 Marathwada CCA (Ha) Per Crop For Each District 14 Mean percentage rates of Increase in the Rural Population per taluka over the years 2020, 2050 15 Water demand for industrial use - Capacity of WSS in MLD data received from MIDC 16 Water Demand & Supply Decadal Projections Per Taluka 17 NCA calculation - livelihood Rabi water supply calculation talukawise

REPORT NO 3.1 : POPULATION AND WATER DEMAND PROJECTIONS

Water Supply Master Plan For Marathwada

ABSTRACT

The Water Supply Master Plan (WSMP) for the Marathwada region of the state of Maharashtra, India, was awarded to Mekorot Development & Enterprise Ltd (MDE), a subsidiary of Mekorot, Israel National Water Co., by the Maharashtra Jeevan Pradhikaran (MJP), the state government-run water company. The MDE-MJP contract was signed on February 21, 2018 under the umbrella of the memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed between the Government of Israel and the Government of Maharashtra as part of a broader government-to-government (G2G) collaboration between India and Israel. According to the contract, the Mekorot team is to prepare a comprehensive water supply master plan covering all types of water resources and demand categories (potable and urban, livestock and agricultural), in order to help achieve sustainable long-term water balance and avoid any water shortage crises. This will be done by promoting advanced management of the region’s water resources and advanced technology for increased efficiency in water use.

The entire study project is divided into 9 stages that are well defined in the technical appendix of the MDE-MJP contract. The proposed structure and phases of the WSMP was agreed upon by the two parties to it, and is attached as an annexure to the agreement.

The stages of reporting on the WSMP and the sequence of the entire study are summarised as:

1. Study of the current situation. 2. Water resources potential: Rainfall runoff, surface water, groundwater potential. 3. Population and water demand projections. (current report) 4. Water balance: Supply scenarios (WSMP). 5. Environment assessment: EIA. 6. Economic considerations. 7. Preliminary design report: WSMP key components. 8. Summary: The full WSMP report. 9. With full completion of all WSMP deliverables.

REPORT NO 3.1 : POPULATION AND WATER DEMAND PROJECTIONS

Water Supply Master Plan For Marathwada

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The WSMP team has compiled the report in hand, “Population and water demand projection”, with the honourable support of various organisations in Aurangabad and other key institutes in the Marathwada region and various MJP officials.

Special mention/acknowledgement must necessarily be made of: • The Office of the Additional Chief Secretary, Water Supply and Sanitation Department, Mantralaya, . • Member Secretary, Maharashtra Jeevan Pradhikaran-Mumbai • Secretary, Maharashtra Water Resources Regulatory Authority • The Office of the Divisional Commissioner, Department of Revenue, Aurangabad. • The Office of the Executive Director, Godavari Marathwada Irrigation Development Corporation, Aurangabad. • The Director, Groundwater Surveys and Development Authority, • The Chief Auditor and Administrator, Water and Irrigation Division, Government of Maharashtra, Aurangabad. • The Office of the Chief Engineer, Maharashtra Jeevan Pradhikaran (MJP) Region Aurangabad • The Office of the Chief Engineer, Aurangabad Division, Maharashtra State Electricity Distribution Company Limited. • The Office of the Chief Engineer, Maharashtra Industrial Development Corporation (MIDC), Aurangabad. • The Superintending Engineer Maharashtra Jeevan Pradhikaran (MJP) Circle Office, Aurangabad. • The Office of the Deputy Director, Groundwater Surveys and Development Authority, Aurangabad. • The Office of the Director, Groundwater Surveys and Development Authority, Pune. • The Office of the Deputy Director, Department of Agriculture: Latur Division and Aurangabad Division.

REPORT NO 3.1 : POPULATION AND WATER DEMAND PROJECTIONS

Water Supply Master Plan For Marathwada

• The District Deputy Commissioner Animal Husbandry, Aurangabad • The Office of the Superintending Engineer Hydrology Project, Water Resource Department, Government of Maharashtra- Circle. • The Office of the Executive Engineer Hydrology Project, Water Resources Department, Government of Maharashtra-Aurangabad Division.

• Avi Malul, Manager of the Steering Committee, Mekorot • Yaron Geller, Water Resources Expert and Team Leader, Mekorot • Dr. Diego Berger, Special Scientific Advisor, Mekorot • Niv Pintow, Chief engineer and deputy team Leader, Mekorot • Roi Shapira, Groundwater Expert, Mekorot • Dipen Shah, Chief engineer • Saar Mezuman Pesach, Water Supply Engineer, Mekorot • Sachin Lone, GIS Specialist • Namita Undegaonkar, Hydrologist Engineer • Shlomi Kostelitz, Water Quality Engineer, Mekorot • Tom Bimka, Reservoir Engineer, Mekorot • Shoval Ben Tal, Water Supply Engineer, Mekorot • Swapnil Anandrao Sardar, Coordinator • Sarosh Bana, Executive Editor, Business India

REPORT NO 3.1 : POPULATION AND WATER DEMAND PROJECTIONS

Water Supply Master Plan For Marathwada

ABBREVIATIONS

ABSL above sea level AW available water BoQ bill of quantities BH boreholes BWS bulk water supply Capex capital expenditure CCA cultivated command area DBWU domestic bulk water user DIA/D diameter DN diameter nominal EIA environmental impact assessment G2G government to government GCA gross command area GIS geographic information system GoI (The) Government of India GoM (The) Government of Maharashtra GW groundwater Ha hectare HH household HTH high test hypochlorite HQ headquarters ICA irrigation command area LPCD litre per capita per day KTW/KT Type Weir MI minor irrigation MM3 million cubic metre (Mm3) MDG (UN) Millennium Development Goals MDE Mekorot Development and Enterprise MIDC Maharashtra Industrial Development Corporation MJP Maharashtra Jeevan Pradhikaran MoU memorandum of understanding NGO non-government organisation O&M operations and maintenance OPEX operational expenses OPEX operational expenditure PDR preliminary design report/review

REPORT NO 3.1 : POPULATION AND WATER DEMAND PROJECTIONS

Water Supply Master Plan For Marathwada

RC reinforced concrete SAT soil aquifer treatment SPI standardised precipitation index ST storage tank SW surface water STP sewage treatment plant TOR terms of reference UFW unaccounted for water UWSS urban water supply system WALMI Water and Land Management Institute (India) WB The World Bank WSMP Water Supply Master Plan WSS water supply and sanitation WR water requirements IWR irrigation water requirements PIWR projected irrigation water requirements WTP water treatment plant WWTP waste water treatment plant

UNIT MEASUREMENTS

km kilometre m metre mm millimetre M3 cubic metre MM3 million cubic metre M3/d cubic metre per day M3/h cubic metre per hour LPCD litre per capita per day MLD million litres per day

REPORT NO 3.1 : POPULATION AND WATER DEMAND PROJECTIONS

Water Supply Master Plan For Marathwada

SUMMARY OF CURRENT REPORT

1.1 Population projections

The population projections in this report have been carried out using differenet calculation methods, namely: Arithmetic progressive, Incremental increase and Geometric progression methods. These provide qualitative support for the preparation of a long term water balance. Feasibile options will be created from them for an Integrated Marathwada (Aurangabad Division) Water Grid/BWS, planning, design and allocation of water to various uses, with priority given to the domestic water use in all sectors (both Urban and Rural).

Report 3 version 1 was submitted to MJP on 4.9.2018. On 17.10.18 WSMP received comments from MJP to the report. On date 29.10.2018 additional comments were received from the irrigation department. On October 30th in a meeting at Member secretary, MJP’s office in Mumbai, the following design priniciples were given:

1. Water can be delivered in Marathwada region through the BWS system with no limit as far as the water is dedicated to potable use of any sort (domestic, bovine and industrial)

2. Stored water in any dam (major, medium or minor) are addressed to the command area located downstream of the reservoir (or lift irrigation scheme). Water for irrigation from a specific project should not be allocated to any other irrigation scheme that belongs to a different project command area.

3. Water dedicated for livelihood irrigation use can be delivered and distributed through BWS if the origin of the sources is external to Marathwada.

REPORT NO 3.1 : POPULATION AND WATER DEMAND PROJECTIONS 1

Water Supply Master Plan For Marathwada

Two external water schemes are in different stages of development to supply water to the Marathwada region:

• Importing water from Ujni dam towards Osmanabad district and part of Beed district. Total water supplied to Marathwada is 650 MCM, out of which only 51 % will reach Marathwada due to losses along the way, meaning 331.5 MCM, the year of project completion being 2020. 155 MCM of the supplied volume is dedicted to potable use in the areas of designated water.

• Importing 115 TMC water from the Konkan scheme towards the Aurangabad area only for the 4 months of the monsoon period. The water will be for croplands in the Rabi period that are located outside the project command area and which are currently only rain-irrigated. Out of the 115 TMC, only 110 TMC will be available to the Marathwada region, the year of project completion being 2030.

4. Livelihood irrigation water supply was calculated at 5,000 M3/Ha And as it is designed to be supplied by pressurised pipes by 2050 % water use efficiency of 40 % will be achieved through the use of such advanced irrigation methods.

5. Data concerning the area irrigated outside the command area should be presented by the irrigation department by 5.11.2018. Until the data are presented, the assumption of calculating the non-cultivated area (rainfed irrigation) was made by subtracting the CCA from the total area of the taluka. The rest of the taluka area – potential NCA - was compared to the total project NCA and was presented as percentage from the total area. Then the total amount of water from the relevant external source was allocated according to the relative NCA size of each taluka. This was done in order to calculate the relative ratio of external water allocation to each taluka.

6. Following meetings held at the member secratery’s office on October 29th , it was concluded that report number 3 should be concerned mainly with potable and livelihood water demand and not agricultural demand. Agricultural demand will be considred in the current report only for the narrow aspect of the livelihood irrigation.

REPORT NO 3.1 : POPULATION AND WATER DEMAND PROJECTIONS 2

Water Supply Master Plan For Marathwada

In report number 3, we have shown the respective population increases for the years 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 in comparison with the base year 2011. A population projection for a design period of 40 years is necessary for designing a domestic water supply network for the Marathwada regional water supply scheme.

Basic data for the projection and the trend analyses were derived from the previous population censuses in India (1981-2011) and conveyed to the WSMP team at the stage of project data collection.

Table 1 shows the past urban and rural population increases from the census data for every decade 1981 – 2011 and their relative porportion ( %).

Table 2 shows the urban and rural population projections and their relative proportion ( %) to the period 2020 - 2050.

Table 1. Decadal urban and rural population increases 1981 - 2011

1981 1991 2001 2011 Urban Pop 1,978,281 3,042,564 4,140,433 5,072,074 Rural Pop 7,750,501 9,919,559 11,488,815 13,659,798 Urban/rural ( %) 26 % 31 % 36 % 37 % Urban/total ( %) 20 % 23 % 26 % 27 % Rural/total ( %) 80 % 77 % 74 % 73 % Total Pop 9,728,782 12,962,123 15,629,248 18,731,872 Source: census data 1981 – 2011 – received from MJP

Table 2. Urban and rural population projections for decades 2020 - 2050

2020 2030 2040 2050 Urban Pop 6,235,933 7,787,787 9,712,180 12,062,224 Rural Pop 15,310,988 17,548,418 20,250,393 23,485,454 Urban/rural ( %) 41 % 44 % 48 % 51 % Urban/total ( %) 29 % 31 % 32 % 34 % Rural/total ( %) 71 % 69 % 68 % 66 % Total Pop 21,546,921 25,336,205 29,962,573 35,547,678

REPORT NO 3.1 : POPULATION AND WATER DEMAND PROJECTIONS 3

Water Supply Master Plan For Marathwada

The proportional relation trend between the urban and rural populations remains similar through the projection period. Over time, more and more people will migrate to the urban areas, raising the ratio of the urban population segment to the rural population. Urban population will show a higher rate of growth.

The rate of change in the urban population will be higher than that of the rural sector (table 3), the latter growing yearly by 2.5 % while the rural population rises by 1.5 % as we approach the year 2050 % % (colours yellow and green in figures 1-3 represent projections).

Table 3. Past and projections of urban and rural population and their yearly average increase ( %) 1981 - 2050

1981 1991 2001 2011 2020 2030 2040 2050 Urban Pop - millions 1.98 3.04 4.14 5.07 6.24 7.79 9.71 12.06 Urban Pop - Average 5.4 % 3.6 % 2.3 % 2.5 % 2.5 % 2.5 % 2.4 % yearly increase Rural Pop - millions 7.75 9.92 11.49 13.66 15.31 17.55 20.25 23.49 Rural Pop - Average yearly 2.8 % 1.6 % 1.9 % 1.3 % 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.6 % increase

Total population - decadal 33.2 20.6 19.9 15.0 % 17.6 % 18.3 % 18.6 % increase ( %) % % %

The rural population is anticipated to increase by 53 % % from 2020 to 2050, in which period the urban population will surge by 93 % %.

As can be seen from figure 3 and table 1+2, the urban population had a share of only 20 % % share of the overall population in 1981, but will account for 34 % % of the overall population by 2050.

Besides, while the urban population was 26 % with relation to the rural population %in 1981, this tally is projected to rise to 51 % % by 2050. This trend underlines the phenomenon of urbanisation driven by migration from the rural to the urban areas (Figure 1). Figure 3 shows that the rate of change varies as we proceed further into the future.

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Water Supply Master Plan For Marathwada

Different studies on India’s urbanisation vary widely in their projections. The projections estimated in the 2001 census have been lower than those of most of the previous such surveys. Based on this trend, Kundu in 2006 estimated the urban population to increase to 45 % % of the total population by 2050. The NCIWRD assumed an increase to 60 % % of the urban population, while the UN population projections indicated an increase to 50 % % by 2050 (UN 2004).1

The urban population in the Marathwada region is expected to reach 34 % of the total population by 2050 (table 2). This is, however, less than the pan-India increase in urban population, primarily owing to the presence of a higher rural population in the region.

Figure 1. Marathwada - past and projected figures of urban and rural populations 1981-2050 (colours yellow and green in figures 1-3 represent projections)

1 India’s Water Future to 2025–2050: Business-as-Usual Scenario and Deviations, Upali A. Amarasinghe, Tushaar Shah, Hugh Turral and B. K. Anand, Research Report 123, IWMI

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Figure 2. Marathwada – average yearly rate of change in urban and rural populations 1981-2050 (current and projected)

Figure 3. Marathwada - urban and rural population proportion change 1981- 2050

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Figure 4 shows the UN WPP India’s past and projected population figures for 1950- 2094. Population increase in India is projected to achieve saturation around the year 2060, and then show a decline.

Figure 4. India – UN past population data and projection 1950-2094

The UN India population trend is similar to this report’s projections as they both show a decrease in the population growth rate over the years. Also India’s population will continue to grow more or less until 2060.

Detailed data for the above are presented in the following appendices: Marathwada Urban Population Census and Projections for 2020- Appendix 1 2050 per District and Taluka Marathwada Rural Population Census and Projections for 2020- Appendix 2 2050 per District and Taluka Mean percentage rates of Increase in the Rural Population per Appendix 14 taluka over the years 2020, 2050

1.2 Bovine water demand projections

Bovine population size by classification together with LPCD were provided by the Deputy Director - Agriculture, Aurangabad and Latur Division. (Appendix 6) Marathwada Bovine population by animal classification & Appendix 6 water demand

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Table 4 summarises the bovine population by type.

Table 4. Marathwada bovine population by type classification

Cows Buffs Total 3,722,162 1,276,929 4,999,091 Sheep Goat Total 304,319 1,555,729 1,860,048 Source: Deputy Director-Agriculture. Aurangabad and Latur Division.

As has been discussed with MJP and with relation to the article ‘Projections of irrigation water demand in India: What do recent trends suggest?2’, the annual growth of India’s bovine population between 1990 and 2000 was negligible and in the Buff population, growth rates were slightly negative.

For the purpose of this report, the bovine population is assumed to remain the same through the projected target years 2020-2050.

As regards the specific water demand for the Bovine population, the following values were received from the Department of Animal Husbandry - Aurangabad Region:

• 40 litres per head per day for the cattle and buffalo populations and, • 3 litres per head per day for sheep and goats.

Table 5 present a summary of the bovine population and demand

2 Article in International Journal of River Basin Management · Vol. 7, No. 2 (2009), pp. 157–166, June 2009 - DOI: 10.1080/15715124.2009.9635378 - © 2009 IAHR, INBO & IAHS

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Table 5. Bovine population + demand per district

Total water Total water Sheep Cow and consumption consumption District and goat buff class buffs + cows sheep + goats class (m3/day) (m3/day) Aurangabad 776,873 31,075 391,232 1,565 Beed 852,354 34,094 402,434 1,610 Hingoli 357,360 14,294 122,404 490 Jalna 491,514 19,661 156,590 626 Latur 600,146 24,006 164,159 657 Nanded 877,311 35,092 294,475 1,178 Osmanabad 667,239 26,690 210,148 841 Parbhani 376,294 15,052 118,606 474 Grand Total 4,999,091 199,964 1,860,048 7,440 Source: Department of Animal Husbandry -Aurangabad Region

Overall daily demand for bovine = 199,964 M3 + 7,440 M3 = 207,404 M3/day 207,404 M3/day x 365 days = 75.7 MCM/year

1.3 Projected water demand of the industrial sector

Industrial water demand for 2018 and projections for 2050 were provided by the Marathwada Industrial Development Corporation (MIDC) for each of the industrial centres in Marathwada (appendix 15). Table 6 summarises the total MLD f0r 2018 and projection for 2050.

Table 6. Industrial water demand for 2018 and projections for 2050 (MLD)

2018 2050 MLD 203 305

Source: Marathwada Industrial Development Corporation (MIDC)

By geometric progression, it was possible to calculate the water demand for the years 2020, 2030 and 2040 (appendix 5).

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Knowing the MLD, calculation of the maximum demand by day was made. Assuming a total 300 working days a year for industry, a calculation of yearly demand has been made. Table 7 shows the demand projections for the industrial sector. Figure 4 shows the projected industrial water demand for 2020 – 2050. Red boxes in table 7 and figure 4 present data received. At the meetings at the member secretary’s office on October 29th, MIDC representatives confirmed the industrial demand projections.

Table 7. Marathwada industrial water demand projections

Year 2020 2030 2040 2050 Mm3 62 68 76 91 Source: data for 2018 and 2050 received from Marathwada Industrial Development Corporation (MIDC)

Detailed data and projections per Taluka are presented in the following appendices Marathwada Industrial water demand projections for 2020- Appendix 5 2050 per District and Taluka Water demand for industrial use 2018 and 2050- Capacity of Appendix 15 WSS in MLD data received from MIDC

1.4 Agriculture sector water demand projections

The agriculture sector is the biggest water consumer in the Marathwada region. Data received from the agriculture department helped calculate the sector’s water requirements (Appendices 8-13). The irrigation department estimates that due to the prevailing water scarcity, only 15 %-25 % of the potentially irrigable area in Marathwada is being irrigated through irrigation canal systems. From the integrated state water plan for the Godavari Basin in Maharashtra Volume 1 - November 2017 report (table 8) - the total water supplied from SW to irrigation was estimated at 3,270 Mm3 (assumed average yield of SW). From report number 1 – revised (Mekorot Marathwada WSMP), it was estimated that annual irrigation from GW origin is 6,780 Mm3 - hence: 3,270 Mm3 +6,780 Mm3 = 10,050 Mm3 = estimate of total irrigation supply.

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Table 8. Marathwada region abstract irrigation water use from SW resources per project size - Mm3, 2018

Major+Medium minor Total completed projects 1,624 1,646 3,270 Source: integrated state water plan for Godavari Basin in Maharashtra Volume 1 - Nov 2017 - page 482

In order to estimate irrigation water supply at plot level, the following losses were assumed:

▪ 40 % % losses from GW system on plot level ▪ 60 % % losses from SW systems on convey systems + plot levels

Hence, 6,780*0.6 + 3,270*0.4 = 5,376 MM3 = average net water available to plot irrigated area.

Upon analysing the WALMI institute water audit data for past years (table 9), it is found that SW supplied for irrigation was calculated per project and per sub-basin (calculating left and right bank release and adding lift for irrigation for every project).

Table 9. Annual SW water for irrigation supply per sub-basin - Mm3

Year Sub Basin 2006 2008 2009 2010 Godavari 2,213 2,146 588 1,762 Krishna 49 77 49 65 Lower Terna - 37 14 - Others 324 355 199 671 Tapi - 2 2 5 Grand Total 2,586 2,616 851 2,504 source: Water audit section Aurangabad

Table 9 clearly marks the fluctuation in water supply to irrigation from SW sources due to annual rainfall. Report number 1 calculates 3,036 Mm3 for irrigation water use for the whole of Marathwada in the year 2014 (from Walmi data department) and this bears similarity to the Godavari report (3,270).

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Today, the demand for irrigation water is much higher than the water available. This report analyses and projects irrigation water requirement (IWR) in Marathwada (see table 10)

The analysis of the seasonal Irrigation Water Requirement (IWR) per District and per Taluka , considered the data in the climate change report regarding the effects of CC on water use in agriculture (Assessing Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Strategies for Maharashtra (MSAAPC) provides projections for 2030 and 2050) as well. The MSAAPC report projected around 20 % % increase in the monsoon rain intensities over the years 2030 – 2050. Report number 2 analyses the annual rainfall data for Marathwada covering a period of 36 years, 1981-2017, and drawn from different data sources like the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) and local authorities. The data present a decreasing trend in the annual rainfall, with a magnitude nearing 10 % % for the period for the past 30 years. The annual average was calculated as 677 mm to 707 mm, with a standard deviation of 184 mm.

In order to obtain a more conservative approach, this report assumes no increase in rainfall in future and uses the current average annual rainfall as the bottom scenario of 677 mm. This is to ignore the future projection regarding increase in rainfall in this area due to climate change effects.

Although this report assumes no increase in rainfall over the years, it assumes a rise in temperature as predicted in the MSAAPC report and, as a result, an increase in average evapotranspiration by up to 14.8 % above the current average by 2050. In this report, a 5 % decadal increase in average evapotranspiration of crops from 2030 to 2050 was assumed, rising to 15 % above the current baseline in 2050.

The IWR projection also includes the improvement in efficiency that will take place in the agriculture sector over time, and assumes efficiency to increase by 11 % with comparison to the current state. Table 10 and Figure 5 summarise the water requirement projections for the irrigation sector seasonwise and total. It is important to note that the figures are represented so as to understand the load of the agriculture sector on the water resources of the region.

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Table 10. Irrigation water supply requirements projections (MCM) per season

Total with Efficency Year Kharif Rabi Summer Total efficiency increase factor 2030 10,262.8 5,707.5 674.8 16,645.1 6 % 15,646.4 2040 10,415.6 5,791.8 690.2 16,897.7 8 % 15,545.9 2050 10,568.4 5,876.2 694.6 17,139.2 11 % 15,253.9

Irrigation water requirement with efficency factor seasonwise and total - MCM 18,000.0 16,000.0 14,000.0 12,000.0 10,000.0

8,000.0 MCM 6,000.0 4,000.0 2,000.0 0.0 2030 2040 2050 Total 15,646.4 15,545.9 15,253.9 Karif 9,647.0 9,582.4 9,405.9 Rabi 5,365.1 5,328.5 5,229.8 Summer 634.3 635.0 618.2

Figure 5. Marathwada - water requirements from irrigation system (IWR) - (MM3) – using climate change and efficiency factors

Detailed calculations are presented in the following appendices

Appendix 8 Marathwada irrigation water supply requirement projections for 2020- 2050 (MM3) per season, Taluka and District

Appendix 9 Marathwada - water demand per crop for each District (MM3)

Appendix 10 Marathwada - cultivated command area (ha) per season, per Taluka

Appendix 11 Agriculture water requirements for Parali Taluka in Beed district

Appendix 12 CCA (Ha) and water requirements for irrigation system per season - Talukawise

Appendix 13 Marathwada CCA (Ha) per crop for each District

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1.5 Urban and Rural sectors water demand projection

The decadal demand and supply projections for 2020 – 2050 were made from the rural and urban population projections by using the guidelines of MWRRA's order no 9 /2017 dt 22.9.2017 to denote different LPCD for each sector and category (table 11). The table of figures from the guideline is shown herewith.

Table 11. Applicable per capita norms for entitlement to DBWU - MWRRA

source: MWRRA's order no 9 /2017 dt 22.9.2017

Following are the criteria for classification of Municipal Coporation/Council and Nagar Panchayats: Municipal Corporation - Population above 3,00,000 - Classified as A,B,C,D based on:

i) Population ii) Per capita income iii) Per capita area

Municipal Council - Small Urban Areas classified as A,B,C based on population :

A - > 100,000

B - 40,000 - 100,000

C - up to 40,000

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Nagar Panchayat - Population of 10,000 - 25,000 within a 20-km distance of a Municipal Corporation or a class A Municipal Council, if non-agricultural activities are above 50 %.

While calculating water demand projections, we assumed that as the population rises there will be a shift from municipal council classification C to A with (more urbanisation) with relation to the population rise. Rural LPCD was assumed to be 40 during 2020 and to rise to 55 from 2030 onward.

Table 12 shows the decadal rural and urban demand projections for the years 2020 - 2050.

Table 12. Decadal urban and rural demand projections for 2020 – 2050 with relative percentages

2020 2030 2040 2050 Urban Demand, Mm3 263 334 435 543 Rural Demand, Mm3 224 352 407 471 Total, Mm3 487 686 842 1,014 Urban/Rural ( %) 117 % 95 % 107 % 115 % Urban/Total ( %) 54 % 49 % 52 % 54 % Rural/Total ( %) 46 % 51 % 48 % 46 %

Detailed water demand and supply projections are presented in the following appendices: Marathwada Urban water demand projections for 2020-2050 per Appendix 3 District and Taluka Marathwada Rural water demand projections for 2020-2050 per Appendix 4 District and Taluka

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2. INTRODUCTION

[NOTE: THIS IS REPETITIVE]Marathwada is a region in the Indian state of Maharashtra. The region coincides with the Aurangabad Division of Maharashtra. It borders the states of Karnataka and Telangana, and it lies to the west of the region and east of the region of Maharashtra. Aurangabad is the largest city of Marathwada.

The Marathwada region straddles 64,500 km2 and has eight main sub-districts. It has a population of 19.26 million, of whom 5.39 million are in urban areas, subdivided into corporations (COs) and municipal councils (MCs). In all, there are 4 municipal corporations, 51 municipal councils and 20 panchayats in Marathwada. Its rural population is organised into panchayats (village councils) and some 12,920 villages are recorded in the taluka-wise data received by MJP. The total rural population at present (2018) is 13.89 million.

The population projection for Marathwada for 2050 is about 35.5 million, of which some 12 million will be located in urban areas. This rural-urban shift is common not only to Marathwada, but to all of India as well. A stressed agriculture sector and rising unemployment in the rural areas are encouraging more and more migration to the urban centres.

The major cities of the Marathwada region include Aurangabad, Nanded-Waghala, Latur and Parbhani. Its district areas are: • Aurangabad, • Latur, • Nanded, • Jalna, • Beed, • Parbhani, • Osmanabad, • Hingoli. The 4 Municipal Corporations in Marathwada are Aurangabad, Nanded, Latur and Parbhani. Marathwada suffers from a highly erratic rainfall during the monsoon season, though this rainfall accounts for almost 80 % of the annual rainfall.

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While almost three quarters of the land in the Marathwada division is cultivated, the average annual rainfall it receives is a mere 677 mm.

This third report deals with urban and rural population projections for the decadal years 2020 – 2050 and with water demand projections for the years 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050. The projections were made on a Taluka level for the following water demand sectors: 1. Urban 2. Rural 3. Industry 4. Bovine population 5. Agriculture

This third report follows the first ‘current state’ report and, together with report 2 ‘water resources potential' report, provides the foundations for the feasibility report for an Integrated Marathwada (Aurangabad Division) Water Grid/BWS, Planning, Design and Allocation of Water Resources Project. Report 3 version 1 was handed to MJP on 4.9.2018. On 17.10.18 comments were received from MJP regarding the first version. On 29.10.2018 additional comments were received from the irrigation department. This revised version of the report presents the WSMP team’s response to the comments in a form of an amended report.

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3. DATA SOURCES

For the purpose of this report, the following data sources were utilised: # Data Source Agriculture water requirements by Deputy Director-agriculture. Aurangabad crop for every taluka together with and Latur Division + Integrated state 1 Taluka CCA size (ha) for each water plan basin volume 1 – November season. 2017 Census data from 1981 – 2011 and projections for 2020 and 2050 per Maharashtra Jeevan Pradhikaran- 2 taluka for rural and urban Aurangabad Circle population Central Public Health and Environmental LPCD planning manual Engineering Organisation – Ministry of 3 classifications Housing and Urban Affairs – received from MJP Maharashtra Industrial Development Industrial water demand 4 Corporation – Office of the Chief projections Engineer - Aurangbad Region Bovine population water demand Department of Animal Husbandry - 5 per Taluka Aurangabad Region climate change report - The Energy and Monsoon rain and 6 Resources Institute and Ministry of evapotranspiration projections Environment, Forest and Climate change India’s Water Future to 2025–2050: Business-as-Usual Scenario and Urban population projection 7 Deviations, Upali A. Amarasinghe, analysis Tushaar Shah, Hugh Turral and B. K. Anand, Research Report 123, IWMI Article in International Journal of River Basin Management · Vol. 7, No. 2 (2009), Bovine population estimation 8 pp. 157–166, June 2009 - DOI: analysis 10.1080/15715124.2009.9635378 - © 2009 IAHR, INBO & IAHS Central Public Health and Environmental Guidelines for water loss and LPCD Engineering Organisation (CPHEEO) - O 9 allocation per residual development & M of the urban drinking water supply system. Water and Agriculture in India - Background paper for the South Asia 10 Agricultural efficiency projections expert panel during the Global Forum for Food and Agriculture (GFFA) 2017

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4. POPULATION PROJECTION

Population projection is a mathematical procedure to work out future scenarios.

This report takes the Population Census data for three decades from 1981 to 2011 as base, and makes projections from the year 2020 to 2050. That is done for the purpose of calculating the increasing demand so as to chart out a plan to ensure a continuous water supply up to the year 2050.

The population forecast is done for all the 76 talukas of Marathwada, using the average results obtained by the Incremental increase method, Arithmetic progressive method and Geometric progression method.

Population projections provide the basic criteria for the calculation of water semand and pipe diametres and water pumping stations in the future grid plan – see report 4.

Initially, Urban and Rural Population projections for 2020 and 2050 were received from MJP. The projections were examined, analysed and, when required, modified.

4.1 Data and Assumptions

Population projection is essentially a mathematical procedure. Hence, it should follow reason and logical cultural trends. In order to maintain a logical projection, the following assumptions were made: 1. There cannot be a decrease in population in any taluka as per future projections. Decrease can only be in decadal rates of population change (due to the phenomenon of urbanisation, for example). Although many of the talukas show a decrease in population over the years 1991-2001, that is mainly due to the creation of new talukas where populations were reassigned to a different demographic area. In reality, there was no decrease in population, but only in the shifting of new administrative boundaries.

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2. Some talukas do not possess census data for the years 1981 and 1991 as they were formed after that period. As the majority of the population of the new talukas was from the same district, it was assumed that the average change of the district population can be attributed to the new talukas. The cells of the values of the district average were coloured blue.

3. The population projections were made using average results obtained by the 3 methods utilised, Incremental increase method, Arithmetic progressive method and Geometric progression method.

List of Related appendices are shown herein. Marathwada urban population Census and projections for 2020- Appendix 1 2050 per District and Taluka Marathwada Rural population Census and projections for 2020- Appendix 2 2050 per District and Taluka Average Rural Population Projection and as % of total district Appendix 14 population over the years 2020 and 2050, Talukawise

Table 13 shows the population projections as received from MJP. The figures are the same as those presented at the steering committee meeting held with the WSMP team in February 2018.

Table 13. Urban and rural population projection received from MJP

Population projection by MJP 2020 2050 Rural Pop projections Received MJP 14,681,411 18,953,202 Urban Pop projections Received MJP 6,218,515 11,894,461 Total Pop projections Received 20,899,926 30,847,663

4.2 Methodology

Population projections provide a tool for analysing the components of growth and the sensitivity of underlying assumptions so as to enable the determining of future water demands.

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Various mathematical approaches are accepted for projecting populations while designing a national-scale master plan. In this report, data, techniques and assumptions were clearly identified, so that other analysts can replicate them precisely. It is important to note that even objective methods require choices regarding variables, data sources, projection techniques and so forth. At some level, every projection method requires a measure of judgment.

Every method yields a varying projection, at times of a magnitude different from each other. For the purpose of obtaining the most realistic population projection, an average was taken in order to restrain the end result. The process of the population projection was as follows: 1. Examination of data received. 2. Detailed presentation of the methods employed for the projections of the rural and urban populations for the years 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050. 3. Missing data problems and solutions. 4. Summary.

4.2.1 Examination of data received

Data received from MJP include the censuses of the years 1981 to 2011, as also population projections for the years 2020 and 2050. An analysis of these projections prompted the following comments: 1. The projections show a decrease in population in 17 of the 76 talukas over the years. (This report projections assume no population decrease at any taluka during the periods of projection).

2. The projections calculated the geometric mean by using a negative number in the square root, which is an imaginary number. (This report calculates the geometric mean without using a negative number in the square root).

This report uses the average value of the results obtained by Incremental increase method, Arithmetic progressive method and Geometric progression method in order to calculate the rural and urban decadal projections.

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The three methods tend to balance each other as the Arithmetic progressive method shows an under-estimated projection while the Geometric progression method shows generally over-estimated values.

4.2.2 Arithmetic progression method

Arithmetic projection assumes a sustained degree of population change observed in what is defined as the base period, that is, the period from which the projection is started, through successive equal durations. A population growing arithmetically would increase by a constant number of people in each period.

Arithmetic projection, if it has been employed during periods of population increase, has generally been used to show a steady population growth. Arithmetic growth is the same as ‘simple interest’, where the interest is offered only on the initial sum deposited - the principal - rather than on accumulated savings. Hence, arithmetic change produces a linear trend in population growth that follows a straight line rather than a curve. The average decadal increase in population is calculated from past census reports. This increase is added to the population level at the time of the study to ascertain the population of the next decade. Thus, it is assumed that the population is increasing at constant rate ‘r’.

Hence, dP/dt = r, that is, the rate of change of population with respect to time is constant. Therefore, Population after the nth decade will be Pn= P + n*r Where: Pn is the population after ‘n’ decades and ‘P’ is the present population. The arithmetic growth rate is expressed by the following equation:

This method is seldom used in planning reports, as it has been found in the past to under-estimate population growth rates.

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4.2.3 Geometric progression method

The geometric projection method looks at population change in terms of percentage change rather than numeric change. Geometric projections are plotted over decadal intervals, where trends are derived from analyses of the changes between decades. In this method, the percentage increase in population from decade to decade is assumed to remain constant. A geometric mean increase is used to find out the future increment in population. The geometric growth rate in demography is calculated using the ‘compound interest formula’. If this constant rate of change is represented by ‘r’ and the initial population is represented by P0, then after ‘t’ years the final population tally is secured by the following equation:

A geometric series is one in which the population increases or decreases at the same rate during each interval of time.

The geometric growth rate ‘r’ can be expressed in the following equation

The mean geometric growth rate was calculated by using the rate of change (r) between three periods (1981-1991), (1991-2001) and (2001 – 2011).

For calculating population projections, the geometric mean is calculated on the decimal multiplier equivalent values, not percent values ( that is, a 6 % increase becomes 1.06; a 3 % decline is transformed to 0.97).

For Example, if the rate of change of the population between the three periods of time is: (1981-1991) = 1.2 = 20 % increase (1991-2001) = 1.3 (2001 – 2011) = 1.5

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Then the mean geometric growth rate is calculated as:

(1.2 * 1.3*1.5)^(1/3) = 1.3276

This should be interpreted as the mean rate of growth of the population over the three decades, which means that if the population grew by 32.76 % uniformly over the three decade-period, then starting with a population of a thousand, the number reached would be 2,340 over the three decades.

Thus, whenever there is percentage growth over a period of time, it is the geometric mean and not the arithmetic mean that needs to be utilised.

4.2.4 Geometric mean Dealing with Negative Numbers

As can be deducted by the geometric growth rate ‘r’ equation:

The geometric mean is only "well defined" for sets of positive real numbers (a, b), with the geometric mean also being positive. Should either (a or b) be negative, their product, ab, will be negative, and the geometric mean will be the square root of a negative value, which is an imaginary number. The way to work round this problem requires that the negative values be converted to a meaningful positive equivalent value.

This problem arises when calculating the geometric mean using values that include negative numbers (decrease in population over a period of time). For example, to calculate the geometric mean of the values:

(1981-1991) = 20 % increase

(1991-2001) = -15 % decrease

(2001 – 2011) = 20 % increase

(0.2 *-0.15*0.2)^(1/3) = ???

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Instead, we calculated the geometric mean of their decimal multiplier equivalents of 1.2, 0.85, and 1.2, to compute a geometric mean of 1.069.

(1.2 *0.85*1.2)^(1/3) = 1.069

Subtracting 1 from this value gives the geometric mean of +6.9 % as a net rate of population growth.

((1.2 *0.85*1.2)^(1/3)) -1 = 0.069

In case when the decimal multiplier equivalent mean is lower than 1, a negative geometrical mean is calculated indicating decrease in population. When a negative geometric mean causes a negative projection then the negative value was take out from the group of which the geometric mean was been calculated. When such action was taken, the excel cell was painted in red.

4.2.5 Incremental increase method

This method charts the growth rate in an increasing order and considers incremental growth for calculating the future population figure. The incremental increase is determined for each decade from past population figures and the average value is added to the present population along with the average rate of increase.

Hence, the population after the Nth decade will be:

Pn = P+ n.X + {n (n+1)/2}*Y

Where: Pn = Population after nth decade N = number of the year of the calculation X = Average increase Y = Incremental increase

As in the Geometric Progression Method, Incremental Progression also results in a much higher projection.

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After calculating the population projections by each of these methods for the years 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, an average of the determinants from all the methods for each decade was made and the number arrived at was the one accepted for projecting the urban and rural populations.

4.3 Dealing with Missing data

All data as regards the urban population were available from the censuses from 1981 to 2011, but for the rural population, census data for 29 Talukas were available only for the years 2001 and 2011.

There was thus only one period available to calculate the rate of change in the rural population and this was done through Geometric mean. To arrive at a more precise calculation, an average of the districtwise Geometric means was taken and filled in in the missing cells for determining the Geometric mean of the relevant taluka. These cells in the table were coloured blue.

This method is based on the assumption that the ratio of the population of the Taluka being studied to that of the District will continue to change in the manner that it has in the past. In other words, the growth of a smaller area is closely related to the growth of the population of the region in which this smaller area is located (figure 6).

Figure 6. Graphical representation of the relative portion of the area.

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4.4 Dealing with population decrease results Using the Incremental increase method, Arithmetic progressive method and Geometric progression method to project population growth can, in some cases, result in negative values, thereby implying a decrease in population. Whenever a population reduction was presented in the calculation, the following steps were taken in an effort to maintain a logical increase in the population over the years: 1. The average decadal change (column 11) is the average change in population over the decades 1981 – 2011. Whenever the average decade change was negative due to a significant decrease in population in a given decade, this negative value was removed from the average and the relevant cell in the table was coloured red.

2. When step ‘1’ did not yield any increase in population, the average arrived at in the Incremental calculation was changed. The Incremental Increase (column 12, 13) consists of two values representing the change across the decades from 1981 – 2011. The average between the two gives the Incremental mean. If one of the values was negative, the calculation of the average in Incremental (column 14) was done only by dividing the positive value by two. When such a step was taken, the cell was coloured red.

3. When steps ‘1’ and ‘2’ did not show any increase in population, it was the Geometric mean that was resorted to by using only the positive values from the three decadal growth rates, When such a step was taken, the cell in the table was coloured red.

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4.5 Rural Population

4.5.1 Census and trends

Table 14 summarises the past rural population in Marathwada.

Table 14. Rural population increases, from census data for decades 1981 - 2011

1981 1991 2001 2011 Rural Pop 7,750,501 9,919,559 11,488,815 13,659,798 Rural average yearly rate of 2.8 % 1.6 % 1.9 % change Rural/total ( %) 80 % 77 % 74 % 73 % Total Pop 9,728,782 12,962,123 15,629,248 18,731,872 Source: census data 1981 – 2011 – received from MJP

Detailed population projections for every taluka can be seen at appendixes 2, 14. Marathwada Rural Population Census and Projections for 2020- Appendix 2 2050 per District and Taluka Average increase rates in Rural population projections and % Appendix 14 from total district population over the years 2020 and 2050, Talukawise

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Figure 7 presents the rural population increase over the years 1981 – 2011 per district.

Source – census data - MJP Figure 7. Marathwada Region – Districts Rural Populations Census data 1981 - 2011

The rural population in Marathwada almost doubled from 7.75 million in 1981 to 13.65 million in 2011. Figure 8 shows the rural population change over the years 1981 – 2011 and the average linear rate of change. The highest population increases were between 1981 – 1991 and between 2001 - 2011.

Figure 9 shows the rural population rate of change. The rate of change was calculated also as the decadal change between two censuses divided by the value of the earliest census. Appendix 2 presents detailed calculation talukawise.

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Source: census data - MJP Figure 8. Rural population between 1981 – 2011 and the linear rate of change

Source – census data - MJP Figure 9. Growth rate in rural population, per district, for the period 1981-2011

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The growth rates of most of the rural population, apart from that of Aurangabad, become negative during the decade 1991-2001, indicating out-migration from the countryside. The negative rate is mainly owing to changed demographies caused by the creation of new talukas. In reality, there was no decrease in population, but only population shifts to the new administrative boundaries, some outside district borders.

4.5.2 Rural Population projection

4.5.2.1 Aurangabad

Rural population projections of Aurangabad district indicate the second highest average rate in Marathwada.

Figure 10 shows the rural population projections for the talukas in Aurangabad district for 2020-2050

While Aurangabad taluka has the highest population projection and population increase rates, Khuldabad taluka represents the smallest.

Figure 10. Aurangabad district – Population projection, Taluka wise

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4.5.2.2 Nanded

Nanded district has the highest number of talukas in the region. And Biloli, Loha Mukhed and Kandhar have the highest population projections in the district.

Figure 11. Nanded district – population projection, Taluka wise

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4.5.2.3 Hingoli

Figure 12. Hingoli district - rural population projections, Taluka wise

Figure 13 shows the average rate of population change with relation to the rest of the district. Clearly, Kalmnuri taluka represents the lowest average increase in population.

Figure 13. Average rate of population change in relation to the rest of the district population

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4.5.2.4 Jalna

Figure 14: Rural population growth for Jalna district and its talukas

Figure 14. Rural population projections per taluka 2020-2050 – Jalna district

4.5.2.5 Beed

Figure 15: Rural population growth for Beed district and its talukas

Figure 15. Rural population projections per taluka 2020-2050 - Beed district

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4.5.2.6 Osmanabad

Figure 16: Rural population growth for Beed district and its talukas

Figure 16. Rural population projections per taluka 2020-2050 - Osmanabad district

4.5.2.7 Parbhani

Figure 17: Rural population growth for Parbhani district and its talukas

Figure 17. Rural population projections per taluka 2020-2050 - Parbhani district

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4.5.2.8 Latur

Figure 18: Rural population growth for Latur district and its talukas

Figure 18. Rural population projections per taluka 2020-2050 - Latur district

Projections for rural population growth in the Marathwada region for decades 2020 – 2050 are presented in Table 15.

Table 15. Rural population projections for decades 2020 - 2050

2020 2030 2040 2050 Rural Pop 15,310,988 17,548,418 20,250,393 23,485,454 Yearly Rate of 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.6 % change Rural/total ( %) 71 % 69 % 68 % 66 % Total Pop 21,546,921 25,336,205 29,962,573 35,547,678

Figure 19 shows the past and projected rural population In Marathwada.

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Figure 19. Marathwada – past (blue) and projected (orange) rural population 1981-2050

4.6 Urban Population

4.6.1 Census and trends

Appendix 1 present a detailed Urban population projection. Marathwada urban Population Census and Projections for 2020- Appendix 1 2050 per District and Taluka

Table 16 presents the urban population increase from the census data together with the relative percentage for every decade 1981 - 2011.

Table 17 presents the urban population increase from this report’s population projections together with the relative percentage for every decade 2020 - 2050.

Table 16. Urban population increase from census data for decades 1981 - 2011

1981 1991 2001 2011 Urban Pop 1,978,281 3,042,564 4,140,433 5,072,074 Urban/rural ( %) 26 % 31 % 36 % 37 % Urban/total ( %) 20 % 23 % 26 % 27 % Total Pop 9,728,782 12,962,123 15,629,248 18,731,872 Source: census data 1981 – 2011 – MJP

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Table 17. Urban population projections for decades 2020 - 2050

2020 2030 2040 2050 Urban Pop 6,235,933 7,787,787 9,712,180 12,062,224 Urban/rural ( %) 41 % 44 % 48 % 51 % Urban/total ( %) 29 % 31 % 32 % 34 % Total Pop 21,546,921 25,336,205 29,962,573 35,547,678

Figure 20 shows the population change from 1981 to 2011 as recived from the census data and also the decadale projections made for the period 2020 – 2050. The trendline equation represents the average rate of urban population growth.

Source: MJP – census data 1981 – 2011 Figure 20. Marathwada urban population 1981 – 2050

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Source: MJP – census data 1981 – 2011 Figure 21. Decadal urban population change per district 1981 - 2011

Figure 21 shows the urban population change over the years 1981 – 2011. The second decade 1991-2001 was the decade with the highest population increase. Aurangabad district holds the highest urban population in the district. Figure 22 present the relative change for every dacade and for every district.

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Source: MJP – census data 1981 – 2011 Figure 22. Urban population change between the decades per district

4.6.2 Urban population projections

4.6.2.1 Aurangabad

Aurangabad district urban population projection is the highest in Marathwada. Figure 23 shows the urban population projections for talukas in Aurangabad district for the years 2020-2050. Table 16 shows type of urban center classification for each taluka. Aurangabad taluka is represented in figure 23. Aurangabad municipal corporation has by far the highest urban population projections in the district.

Table 18. Aurangabad Urban/council resident classification

Name of Name of Municipal Council Name of District Municipal Nagar "A" "B" "C" Class Corporation. Class Class Panchayat Aurangabad Aurangabad Sillod Kannad Soegaon Khuldabad Fulambri Vaijapur Gangapur Paithan

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Figure 23. Urban population projections per taluka 2020-2050 - Aurangabad district

Figure 24. Urban population projections 2020-2050 - Aurangabad taluka

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4.6.2.2 Jalna

Table 19. Jalna Urban/council resident classification

District Name of Name of Municipal Council Name of Municipal Nagar "A" Class "B" Class "C" Class Corporation. Panchayat Jalna Bhokardan Jaffrabad Ambad Badnapur Jalna Partur Ghansawangi Mantha

Figure 25. Urban population projections per taluka 2020-2050 - Jalna district

4.6.2.3 Beed

Table 20. Beed Urban/council resident classification

Name of Name of Municipal Council Name of District Municipal Nagar "A" Class "B" Class "C" Class Corporation. Panchayat Beed Ambejogai Ashti Patoda Parli Georai Shirur Beed Majalgaon Dharur Wadwani Kaij

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Figure 26. Urban population projections per taluka 2020-2050 - Beed district

4.6.2.4 Nanded

Table 21. Nanded Urban/council resident classification

Name of Name of Municipal Council Name of District Municipal Nagar "A" Class "B" Class "C" Class Corporation. Panchayat Nanded Deglur Kinwat Mahoor Waghala Hadgaon Himayatnagar Mudkhed Ardhapur Bhokar Naigaon Peth Umri Nanded Dharmabad Biloli Kundalwadi Loha Kandhar Mukhed

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Figure 27. Urban population projections per taluka 2020-2050 - Nanded district

4.6.2.5 Parbhani

Table 22. Parbhani Urban/council resident classification

District Name of Name of Municipal Council Name of Municipal Nagar "A" Class "B" Class "C" Class Corporation. Panchayat Parbhani Gangakhed Sailu Palam Jintur Manwath Parbhani Pathri Sonpeth Purna

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Figure 28. Urban population projections per taluka 2020-2050 - Parbhani district

4.6.2.6 Hingoli

Table 23. Hingoli Urban/council resident classification

District Name of Name of Municipal Council Name of Municipal Nagar "A" Class "B" Class "C" Class Corporation. Panchayat Hingoli Kalmnuri Aundha Hingoli Basmath Sengaon

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Figure 29. Urban population projections per taluka 2020-2050 - Hingoli district

4.6.2.7 Latur

Table 24. Latur Urban/council resident classification

District Name of Name of Municipal Council Name of Municipal Nagar "A" Class "B" Class "C" Class Corporation. Panchayat Latur Udgir Ahmadpur Renapur Ausa Jalkot Latur Nilanga Chakur Shirur Deoni

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Figure 30. Urban population projections per taluka 2020-2050 - Latur district

4.6.2.8 Osmanabad

Table 25. Osmanabad Urban/council resident classification

District Name of Name of Municipal Council Name of Municipal Nagar "A" Class "B" Class "C" Class Corporation. Panchayat

Osmanabad Paranda Washi

Bhum Lohara

Kalamb

Osmanabad Tuljapur

Naldurg

Murum

Umarga

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Figure 31. Urban population projections per taluka 2020-2050 - Osmanabad district

4.7 Population projections– summary

The population projections in this report undertaken through Arithmetic progressive, Incremental increase and Geometric progression methods provide qualitative support for the preparation of a water demand calculation and later Feasibility Report for an Integrated Marathwada (Aurangabad Division) Water Grid, Planning, Design and Allocation of Water Resources Project.

This report shows population increases for the design period of 30 years - 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 - that provide the base for designing a domestic water supply network for the Marathwada region.

Table 26 shows the urban and rural population increases as per the census data, and their relative percentages for every decade 1981 - 2011.

Table 27 shows the urban and rural population increases from population projections and their relative percentages for every decade 2020 - 2050.

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The following appendices present the urban and rural population projections in detail for the decadal years 2020 – 2050: Marathwada Urban population Census and projections for 2020- Appendix 1 2050 per District and Taluka Marathwada Rural population Census and projections for 2020- Appendix 2 2050 per District and Taluka Rural talukawise population projections and average increase rates Appendix 14 as share of total district population over the years 2020 and 2050

Table 26. Urban and rural population increase from census data for decades 1981 - 2011

1981 1991 2001 2011 Urban Pop 1,978,281 3,042,564 4,140,433 5,072,074 Urban yearly rate of 5.4 % 3.6 % 2.3 % change Rural Pop 7,750,501 9,919,559 11,488,815 13,659,798 Rural yearly rate of 2.8 % 1.6 % 1.9 % change Urban/rural ( %) 26 % 31 % 36 % 37 % Urban/total ( %) 20 % 23 % 26 % 27 % Rural/total ( %) 80 % 77 % 74 % 73 % Total Pop 9,728,782 12,962,123 15,629,248 18,731,872 Source: census data 1981 – 2011 – received from MJP

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Table 27. Projections of urban and rural population for the years 2020 – 2050

2020 2030 2040 2050

Rural population 15,310,988 17,548,418 20,250,393 23,485,454

Rural average yearly rate of 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.6 % change

Urban Pop 6,235,933 7,787,787 9,712,180 12,062,224

Urban average yearly rate of 2.5 % 2.5 % 2.4 % change

Total 21,546,921 25,336,205 29,962,573 35,547,678

Total population average yearly 1.8 % 1.8 % 1.9 % rate of change

Urban % 29 % 31 % 32 % 34 %

Rural % 71 % 69 % 68 % 66 % Source: census data 1981 - 2011

Table 28. Urban and rural population projections - relation

2020 2030 2040 2050 Urban Pop 6,235,933 7,787,787 9,712,180 12,062,224 Rural Pop 15,310,988 17,548,418 20,250,393 23,485,454 Urban/rural ( %) 41 % 44 % 48 % 51 % Urban/total ( %) 29 % 31 % 32 % 34 % Rural/total ( %) 71 % 69 % 68 % 66 % Total Pop 21,546,921 25,336,205 29,962,573 35,547,678

The rural population is shown as growing 53 % from 2020 to 2050, while the projected urban population shows a high 93 % increase over this same period! While the yearly increase of the rural population averages 1.5 %, that of the urban population averages 2.5 %. As table 25 shows, yearly increase of the total population was 3.3 % during 1991 and projected to reach 1.8 % at 2050. Table 29 shows that while the share of the urban population will be only 41 % in 2020, it will have surged to 51 % in 2050.

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Table 29. Past and projections of urban and rural population and their yearly average increase ( %) 1981 - 2050

1981 1991 2001 2011 2020 2030 2040 2050 Urban Pop - millions 1.98 3.04 4.14 5.07 6.24 7.79 9.71 12.06 Urban Pop Average yearly 5.4 % 3.6 % 2.3 % 2.5 % 2.5 % 2.5 % 2.4 % increase Rural Pop - millions 7.75 9.92 11.49 13.66 15.31 17.55 20.25 23.49 Rural Pop Average yearly 2.8 % 1.6 % 1.9 % 1.3 % 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.6 % increase

Total population decadal 33.2 20.6 19.9 15.0 % 17.6 % 18.3 % 18.6 % increase ( %) % % %

Figures 32-34 present comparison between the urban and the rural populations over the period of 1981 – 2050 (colours yellow and green in figures 32-34 represent projections). From the trendline equations in figure 32, we can see that the growth rate of the urban population is higher – representing an increase from 20 % from the total region population in 1981 to 34 % at year 2050.

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Figure 32. Marathwada - past and projections of urban and rural population 1981-2050

Figure 33 presents the urban/rural proportion over the years 1981-2050. As can be seen from the trendline, over time, the ratio between the urban and the rural population decreases.

Figure 33. Marathwada - urban and rural population proportion change 1981- 2050

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4.7.1 Projection recived and calculated comparison

Table 30. Urban and rural population projection received and calculated

% 2020 2050 difference Rural Pop projections Received 14,681,411 18,953,202 19 % Rural Pop projections Calculated 15,310,988 23,485,454 Urban Pop projections Received 6,218,515 11,894,461 1 % Urban Pop projections Calculated 6,235,933 12,062,224

It may be seen that the differences in projection for the urban sector are negligible, while those of the rural sector are nearly 20 %. These wide differences with regard to the rural population projections are mainly due to two reasons: 1. Of the projections for 76 talukas, those for 17 show a decrease in population. This report assumes no population decrease at any taluka in its population projections for the projected period. 2. In the projections that were received, the Geometric mean has been calculated using the negative number in calculating the square root. This report, however, has used no negative number in calculating the Geometric mean.

Figure 34 illustrates the differences between the two projections:

Figure 34. Comparison between the received and calculated population projections

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Studies detailing projections of India’s urbanisation vary widely, with most such studies showing higher projections than in the 2001 census. Based on this trend, Kundu (2006) estimated the urban population to increase to 45 % of the total by 2050. The NCIWRD assumed an increase of 60 %, while UN population projections indicate a 50 % share of the urban population by 2050 (UN 2004)3.

Marathwada’s urban population is expected to reach 34 % of its total population by 2050, a figure less than the projected national average due to its high rural population.

Appendices 1,2 present a detailed talukawise population projection for the rural and urban populations.

4.8 Livestock (Bovine) population

Talukawise figures of the bovine population by classification for the year 2011 were provided by the Deputy Director - Agriculture, Aurangabad and Latur Divisions (appendix 6). Table 27 summarises the bovine population by type classification.

Table 31. Marathwada bovine population by type classification

Cows Buffs Total 3,722,162 1,276,929 4,999,091 Sheep Goat Total 304,319 1,555,729 1,860,048

Source: Department of Animal Husbandry -Aurangabad Region

As discussed with MJP and with relation to the article, ‘Projections of irrigation water demand in India: What do recent trends suggest?4’, annual growth in India’s bovine population was almost non-existent from 1990 to 2000 and was, in fact, slightly negative in the case of the buff population This was attributable to a decrease in rural activities as more people migrated to the cities.

3 India’s Water Future to 2025–2050: Business-as-Usual Scenario and Deviations, Upali A. Amarasinghe, Tushaar Shah, Hugh Turral and B. K. Anand, Research Report 123, IWMI 4 Article in International Journal of River Basin Management · Vol. 7, No. 2 (2009), pp. 157–166, June 2009 - DOI: 10.1080/15715124.2009.9635378 - © 2009 IAHR, INBO & IAHS

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For the purpose of this report, the bovine population is assumed to stay the same all through the project target years 2020-2050.

The following values for the demand for water from the bovine population were received from the Department of Animal Husbandry - Aurangabad Region:

• 40 litres per head per day for cattle and buffalo, and • 3 litres per head per day for sheep and goats.

Table 32 presents a summary of the bovine population and its water demand.

Table 32. Bovine population + demand per district

Total water Total water Sheep Cow and consumption consumption District and goat buff class buffs + cows sheep + goats class (m3/day) (m3/day) Aurangabad 776,873 31,075 391,232 1,565 Beed 852,354 34,094 402,434 1,610 Hingoli 357,360 14,294 122,404 490 Jalna 491,514 19,661 156,590 626 Latur 600,146 24,006 164,159 657 Nanded 877,311 35,092 294,475 1,178 Osmanabad 667,239 26,690 210,148 841 Parbhani 376,294 15,052 118,606 474 Grand Total 4,999,091 199,964 1,860,048 7,440

Source: Department of Animal Husbandry -Aurangabad Region

Overall daily demand = 199,964 M3 + 7,440 M3 = 207,404 M3/day

207,404 M3/day x 365 days = 75.7 MCM/year

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5. WATER DEMAND PROJECTIONS

Projections for decadal talukawise water demand were made for 2020 – 2050 as regards the following sectors: • Rural population • Urban population • Industry • Bovine population • Agriculture

5.1 Definitions:

Average daily water demand [L/D] = LPCD*Population:

This is the average daily water demand in a year and calculated based on the forecast LPCD values (liters per capita per day) received. LPCD values for planning purposes differ according to legislation and existing manuals.

Yearly Demand [M3/Year] = average daily demand [L/D]*365/1000.

Maximum daily Demand [M3/Day] = Average daily water demand *1.2-1.12

This is the maximum daily demand for water and the maximum hourly demand can be drawn from this. To design a water transmission system, it is important to know the maximum per-day demand for water and the duration of the daily supply.

There are seasonal and even daily variations in the demand for water,the maximum demand being calculated by adding 10-30 % to the average daily demand. A much greater variation takes place in two peaks during the same day (hourly variation), one in the morning and one in the evening. The peak factor by which the average hourly demand must be multiplied depends on the size and character of the community served. It tends to be high for small villages and lower for small towns. This report has taken 20 % above the average daily water demand.

Water demand projections for Industry, and for the rural, urban and bovine populations represent the maximum daily supply for every taluka.

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Sufficient water must be available to meet the peak demands and the pumps and distribution system must be suitably designed for this. Hourly variations can influence the design of pipe diametres, pumps and service reservoirs.

Water Loss Coefficient

The Central Public Health and Environmental Engeering Organisation (CPHEEO) determines the Non Revenue Water (NRW) coefficient - typically measured as the volume of water "lost" as a share of the net water produced –to be no more than 15 % within residential areas. The same coefficient was used for the industrial, urban, rural and bovine water demand calculations. A one % decline in NRW coefficient is assumed for each preceding decade, on considerations of expected improvement in water supply systems both in performance and in maintenance. We assumed that every 10 years the loss coefficient will be reduced b at least 1 %

Yearly water Supply [M3/Year] = Average Yearly Demand [M3/Year]x (1+Water loss coefficient).

Maximum daily Supply [M3/day] = Max daily Demand [M3/Day]* (1+Water loss coefficient).

5.2 Methodology To estimate water demand projections for the rural and urban sectors, the following parameters need to be defined:

• LPCD - is the water demand in litres per capita per day. • Population projections • Average daily water demand [L/D]. • Yearly Demand [M3/Year]. • Maximum daily Demand [M3/Day]. • Water Loss coefficient Estimation of water demand and supply is necessary to calculate: • Pipe capacity • Reservoir capacity • Design flow • water pumping stations

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Table 33. Applicable per capita norms for entitlement to DBWU - MWRRA

Source: MWRRA's order no 9 /2017 dated 22.9.2017

5.2.1 Rural water demand projections

Water demand projections for the rural sector rely on the population projections presented in chapter 4.

Appendix 4 presents a detailed decadal talukawise water demand calculation for the projected population for 2020-2050. Marathwada Rural decadal water demand projections for 2020- Appendix 4 2050 per District and Taluka

The projections for water demand were calculated using demand per capita (LPCD) as shown in table 33 and table 34.

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Table 34. Criteria for rural demand (LPCD) :

Category Litres per capita per day - LPCD Rural water supply (Gram Panchayat) until year 2030 40 Rural water supply (Gram Panchayat) between 2030 and 2050 – as for the MWRRA's order no 9 /2017 dated 55 22.9.2017

Source : MJP / MWRRA's order no 9 /2017 dated 22.9.2017

5.2.2 Urban water demand projections

Water demand projections for the urban sector rely on the population projections presented in chapter 4.

Appendix 3 presents a detailed water demand calculation per taluka for the projected population for decadal years 2020-2050. Marathwada Urban water demand projections for 2020- Appendix 3 2050 per District and Taluka

LPCD specifications were made using table 33.

Table 35. Recommended LPCD Supply for Designing Schemes

Recommended Maximum Sr No Classifications of Towns/Cities Water Supply (LPCD) Urban population where water is supplied 0 55 by water stanpost Towns with piped water supply but without 1 70 sewerage system existing/contemplated Cities provided with piped water supply 2 135 and existing sewerage system Source: MWRRA's order no 9 /2017 dated 22.9.2017

Under instruction from MJP, this report assumes that all urban centres will have water treatment plants (WTPs) and sewerage systems by 2030 – for Nagar Panchiat the LPCD is considered to be 70.

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5.2.3 Industry water demand projections

Water demand projections for the industry sector rely on the demand projections received from the Office of the Chief Engineer of the Maharashtra Industrial Development Corporation, Aurangbad Region, for the years 2018 and 2050. Appendices 5 and 15 present a detailed talukawise water demand calculation for industry for the projected decadal years 2020-2050. Marathwada Industrial water demand projections for 2020- Appendix 5 2050 per District and Taluka Water demand for industrial use - Capacity of WSS in MLD Appendix 15 data received from MIDC

Decadal Growth rate was being calculated based on industry water demand data received for 2018 and 2050 (appendix 15), using the Geometric progression method: Growth rate (Gr) = (demand of 2050 / demand of 2018)^(1/32)-1

The water demand at the end of nth decade ‘Dn’ was estimated as:

Dn = D (1+ Gr /100)n Where: Gr = Growth rate D = Present water demand n = number of decades. It was assumed that the industry centres work 300 days a year: Number of days in a Year: 365 Number of holidays: 5 Number of days of weekend off: 60 (30 weeks)

5.3 Urban Water demand projections

The projection includes three main results:

• Yearly water demand (MM3/year) • Annual supply (MM3/year)

• Maximum daily supply (MM3/day)

Appendix 3 - Marathwada Urban water demand projections for 2020-2050 per District and Taluka present detailed calculations.

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Table 36 shows projections for the yearly water demand and supply, and the maximum daily water supply for the urban sector. Apart from agriculture, urban demand shows the highest increase rates compared to the rest of the sectors investigated in this report.

Table 36. Urban water demand and supply projections 2020-2050

URBAN 2020 2030 2040 2050 Demand Year Mm3 263 334 435 543 Supply Year Mm3 302 381 491 608 Supply Day Max Mm3/day 0.99 1.25 1.62 2.00

5.3.1 Aurangabad

Figure 35. Aurangabad district – decadal year urban water demand projections per taluka (M3) – 2020-2050

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5.3.2 Jalna

Figure 36. Jalna District – decadal year urban water demand projections per taluka (M3) – 2020-2050

5.3.3 Beed

Figure 37. Beed District – decadal year urban water demand projections per taluka (M3) – 2020-2050

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5.3.4 Nanded

Figure 38. Nanded District – decadal year urban water demand projections per taluka (M3) – 2020-2050

5.3.5 Parbhani

Figure 39. Parbhani District – decadal urban water demand projections per taluka (M3) – 2020-2050

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5.3.6 Hingoli

Figure 40. Hingoli District – decadal urban water demand projections per taluka (M3) – 2020-2050

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5.3.7 Latur

Figure 41. Latur District – decadal urban water demand projections per taluka (M3) – 2020-2050

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5.3.8 Osmanabad

Figure 42. Osmanabad District – decadal urban water demand projections per taluka (M3) – 2020-2050

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5.4 Rural water demand projections

The projection includes three main results:

• Yearly water demand (MM3/year) • Annual supply (MM3/year)

• Maximum daily supply (MM3/day)

Appendix 4 - Marathwada Rural water demand projections for 2020-2050 per District and Taluka present detailed calculations.

Table 37 shows the yearly water demand and supply projections and the maximum daily water supply for the rural sector. Apart from agriculture, rural demand shows the second highest increase rate compared to the rest of the sectors investigated in this report.

Table 37. Rural water demand and supply projections 2020-2050

2020 2030 2040 2050 Demand Year Mm3 224 352 407 471 Supply Year Mm3 257 402 459 528 Supply Day Max Mm3/day 0.85 1.32 1.51 1.74

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5.4.1 Aurangabad

Figure 43. Aurangabad District – decadal rural water demand projections per taluka (M3) – 2020-2050

5.4.2 Jalna

Figure 44. Jalna District – decadal rural water demand projections per taluka (M3) – 2020-2050

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5.4.3 Beed

Figure 45. Beed District – decadal rural water demand projections per taluka (M3) – 2020-2050

5.4.4 Nanded

Figure 46. Nanded District – decadal rural water demand projections per taluka (M3) – 2020-2050

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5.4.5 Parbhani

Figure 47. Parbahani District – decadal rural water demand projections per taluka (M3) – 2020-2050

5.4.6 Latur

Figure 48. Latur District – decadal rural water demand projections per taluka (M3) – 2020-2050

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5.4.7 Osmanabad

Figure 49. Osmanabad District – decadal rural water demand projections per taluka (M3) – 2020-2050

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5.4.8 Hingoli

Figure 50. Hingoli District – decadal rural water demand projections per taluka (M3) – 2020-2050

5.5 Industry water demand projections

The projection includes three main results:

• Yearly water demand (MM3/year) • Annual supply (MM3/year)

• Maximum daily supply (MM3/day)

Appendix 5 - Marathwada Industrial water demand projections for 2020-2050 per District and Taluka present detailed calculations.

Appendix 15 - Water demand for industrial use 2018 and 2050 - Capacity of WSS in MLD data received from MIDC – presents the data received from Maharashtra Industrial Development Corporation-Chief Engineer Office-Aurangabad Region.

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Table 38 shows the yearly water supply projections for the industrial sector. While the industry water demand projections are relatively low, the bovine water demand projections are even lower.

Table 38. Marathwada industrial water demand projection (Mm3)

Year 2020 2030 2040 2050 Mm3/Y 62 68 76 91 Source of data: data for 2018 and 2050 demand supplied from MJP in the data collection period 03.2018

Figure 51 illustrate table 38 annual water demand for the industrial sector

Source: Marathwada Industrial Development Corporation (MIDC) water demand in 2018 and 2050. Figure 51. Projected industrial water demand 2020 – 2050

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Table 39 shows Demand, supply and max day supply for the industrial sector. Table 39. Yearly industrial water demand and supply projections 2020-2050 INDUSTRY 2020 2030 2040 2050 Demand Mm3 62 68 76 91 Supply Mm3 71 78 86 102 Supply Day Max Mm3/day 0.29 0.31 0.34 0.41

5.6 Bovine population water demand projections

The projection includes three main results: • Yearly water demand (MM3/year) • Annual supply (MM3/year) • Maximum daily supply (MM3/day)

Appendix 7 - Marathwada bovine population water demand and supply projections for 2020-2050 per District and Taluka, present detailed calculations.

Appendix 6 - Marathwada bovine population by animal classification & water demand – present the data received from Director, Animal Husbandry.

Table 40 present the daily water demand projections for the bovine sector. Bovine water demand projection is the lowest sector in Marathwada.

As has been discussed with MJP and with relation to the article ‘Projections of irrigation water demand in India: What do recent trends suggest?5’, the annual growth of bovine population in India between 1990 and 2000 was almost non-existent and in the buff population, slightly negative.

For the purpose of this report, bovine population is assumed to stay the same all through the project target years 2020-2050.

5 Article in International Journal of River Basin Management · Vol. 7, No. 2 (2009), pp. 157–166, June 2009 - DOI: 10.1080/15715124.2009.9635378 - © 2009 IAHR, INBO & IAHS

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As per bovine population water demand, the following values were received by the Department of Animal Husbandry - Aurangabad Region:

• 40 litres per head per day for the cattle and buffalo population and, • 3 litres per head per day for sheep and goats.

Table 41 shows the water demand and supply projections for the bovine population for 2020-2050

Table 40. Bovine population + demand per district

Total water Total water Sheep Cow and consumption consumption District and goat buff class buffs + cows sheep + goats class (m3/day) (m3/day) Aurangabad 776,873 31,075 391,232 1,565 Beed 852,354 34,094 402,434 1,610 Hingoli 357,360 14,294 122,404 490 Jalna 491,514 19,661 156,590 626 Latur 600,146 24,006 164,159 657 Nanded 877,311 35,092 294,475 1,178 Osmanabad 667,239 26,690 210,148 841 Parbhani 376,294 15,052 118,606 474 Grand Total 4,999,091 199,964 1,860,048 7,440 Source: Department of Animal Husbandry -Aurangabad Region

Overall daily demand = 199,964 M3 + 7,440 M3 = 207,404 M3/day 207,404 M3/day x 365 days = 75.7 MCM/year

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Table 41. Water demand and supply projections for the bovine population for 2020-2050

Bovine

2020 2030 2040 2050

Demand Year Mm3 75.7 75.7 75.7 75.7 Supply Year Mm3 87 86 85 84.3 Supply Day Max Mm3/day 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28

The decrease of water supply over the years is due to reduction of system losses

5.7 Demand Projection - summary

Table 42 shows the decadal districtwise water demand projections. As has been calculated, the demand will stand at 572 MM3 by 2020 and at 1,232 MM3 by 2050. Aurangabad is the district with the highest water demand, of 378 MM3 by 2050.

Table 42. Districtwise water demand projections for 2020-2050 (in M3)

District name 2020 2030 2040 2050

Aurangabad 181,439,339 238,448,730 298,451,834 372,545,004 Jalna 52,590,536 71,561,079 84,273,604 98,735,657 Beed 68,607,899 92,927,665 106,258,584 119,474,869 Nanded 103,058,020 139,913,427 170,121,307 206,858,270 Parbhani 55,842,037 73,341,380 86,010,936 97,533,872 Hingoli 29,889,911 40,050,298 47,206,460 49,010,048 Latur 86,668,393 113,998,649 133,402,400 161,094,684 Osmanabad 45,452,600 59,601,824 67,040,164 76,039,250 TOTAL 623,548,733 829,843,051 992,765,288 1,181,291,655 % increase 25 % 16 % 16 %

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The vast increase of 51 % by 2030 is mainly because of the assumption that by that year, all the urban areas will have sewage systems and therefore increased LPCD from 70 to 135 and for gram panchayats, an increased LPCD from 40 to 55.

Table 43 and figure 52 present the water demand on a sectoral basis.

Table 43. Sectorwise water demand projections for 2020-2050 (in MM3)

Year Urban Rural Industry Bovine Total 2020 262.7 223.5 62.1 75.2 623.5 2030 334.0 352.3 68.3 75.2 829.8 2040 434.9 406.5 76.1 75.2 992.8 2050 543.2 471.5 91.4 75.2 1181.3

Figure 52. Water demand projection by sector 2020-2050

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Table 44 presents the percentagewise water demand projections per sector.

Table 44. Percentage of water demand projections by sector 2020-2050

2020 2030 2040 2050 Urban 42 % 40 % 44 % 46 % Rural 36 % 42 % 41 % 40 % Industry 10 % 8 % 8 % 8 % Bovine 12 % 9 % 8 % 6 % Sum 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 %

The projected increase in rural demand from 2020 to 2030 is due to the assumption that the rural sector will be boosted by a rise of 40 to 55 LPCD in the gram panchayats by 2030. Year 2030 is the year where rural and urban demand rise dramatically compared to the industry and bovine demand. The relative decrease in overall demand of the rural sector from 2030 onward is due to:

• Urban demand rate of increae is higher than the rural sector due to high population increase.

Figure 53. Marathwada- water demand by sector as percentage of total demand ( %)

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Without accounting for the agriculture sector, the water demand for industry and for the rural, urban and bovine populations is projected to increase by 25 % by 2030 in relation to 2020, by 16 % by 2040 and by 16 % by 2050 (Table 53). The domestic sector will account for a substantial part – 78 % - of the additional water demand by 2020, and this will soar to 86 % by 2050.

While the relative proportional rural demand for water will decrease from 42 % to 40 %, urban demand for water will increase proportionally from 40 % to 46 %.

Figure 54 shows the yearly demand projections in Marathwada districts for the urban, rural and bovine populations.

Figure 54. Marathwada districts – decadal water demand projections for 2020- 2050 (M3)

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6. WATER SUPPLY PROJECTIONS

Water Supply = Water demand + water loss coefficient

Figure 55 shows the urban water demand compared to the urban water supply projection for 2020-2050.

The gap between demand and supply represents the additional water needed because of the water loss at the distribution system.

Figure 55. Marathwada - urban water demand and supply (in MM3)

Appendices 4 and 3 present the supply decadal projection figures talukawise

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7. AGRICULTURE - WATER REQUIREMENTS

Irrigation water demand equals the amount of water that needs to be supplied to ensure optimal crop growth, considering the losses during water transport and application.

On a meeting held at the MJP office on 30.10.2018 and in parallel to comments on report number 3 received from the Agriculture Department, it was concluded that report number 3 should concern itself mainly with potable water use and livelihood water demand and not agricultural demand. The main agriculture supply will be done through traditional canal irrigation schemes, as long as the level of available water in the dams.

In this chapter, an assessment of the per season and per taluka agricultural baseline requirements is being made.

It has been estimated by the Irrigation Department that due to prevailing water scarcity, only 15-30 % of the available irrigable area in Marathwada is being currently irrigated.

For this reason, this report analyses the irrigation water requirements of Marathwada other than any available irrigation water supply analysis.

After submission of the second report containing projections of water resources, a meeting with the concerned parties is necessary to clarify to what extent this project should aim at supplying water to which potentially irrigable areas in the region, depending on water availability.

In analysing the Irrigation Water Requirement (IWR), this chapter also considers the projections for 2030 and 2050 in the climate change report, "Assessing Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Strategies for Maharashtra" (MSAAPC).

In order to assess the future implications of variability and changes in climate on agriculture, it is important to first understand the baseline conditions and trends of Marathwada’s agricultural economy in order to understand the magnitude and direction of change that can be expected in future.

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In WSMP meeting with the Deputy Director – Agriculture - Aurangabad and Latur Division - in Aurangabad, we received the following agricultural data for every taluka in the region (Appendix 11): 1. Water requirements (WR) per unit crop area for every season (mm). 2. Cultivated command area for each crop (Ha). 3. Water requirements from irrigation systems (IWR) per unit crop area for every season (mm) with regard to the average rainfall.

The WR was given as the total amount of water needed to supply the plot area and includes irrigation demand, based on the soil–water balance: evapotranspiration, precipitation (mm), deep percolation from the crop root zone (mm), surface runoff (mm), groundwater contribution to the crop root zone (mm), and the change in soil water in the crop root zone (mm).

푊푅 – 퐼푊푅 = 푤푎푡푒푟 푟푒푞푢푖푟푒푑 푓표푟 푖푟푟푖푔푎푡푖표푛 푠푢푝푝푙푖푒푑 푏푦 푎푣푒푟푎푔푒 푟푎푖푛푓푎푙푙.

Appendix 11 – One such report concerns the agricultural water requirements for Kaij Taluka in Beed district. Overall, 76 reports have been received, one for each taluka.

The 76 reports were analysed to calculate the following attributes: 1. Sum of total CCA (Ha) per season, taluka, district and region - Appendices 12 and 10 2. Total agriculture water requirements per taluka, district and region - Appendices 12 and 10 3. Sum of agriculture water requirements from irrigation system per taluka, district and region – Appendices 12 and 10 4. Total water requirements per crop and per district (MM3) – Appendix 9 5. CCA (Ha) per crop for each district – Appendix 13

Table 45 summarises the seasonal WR and IWR requirements as given by the Agriculture department.

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Table 45. Seasonal baseline requirements for agriculture (WR) and irrigation systems (IWR)

Kharif Rabi Summer Total Water demand at plot area 24,246.4 7,080.9 665.5 31,992.9 ICA (MM3) – (WR) Water Requirements from irrigation system (IWR) - 10,186.4 5,623.1 659.9 16,469.5 (MM3) % IWR/WR 42 % 79 % 99 % Source: Deputy Director-agriculture. Aurangabad and Latur Division.

The more arid the season, the more important is the role of the irrigation system in fulfilling the water requirements Table 46 summarises the CCA (ha) for each of the districts in Marathwada for each of the seasons.

Table 46. Cultivated command area (ha) per season and district - 2017

District Kharif Rabi summer Grand Total Aurangabad 754,041 200,237 28,961 964,331

BEED 709,370 310,364 4,180 1,023,914

HINGOLI 311,838 82,863 1,154 395,855

JALNA 583,830 104,481 9,723 698,034

LATUR 580,080 272,355 1,201 853,636

Nanded 727,559 160,004 3,519 891,082

Osmanabad 414,509 274,336 1,829 690,674

Parbhani 520,713 251,816 5,328 777,857

Total 4,601,940 1,656,456 55,895 6,314,291

( %) from total 73 % 26 % 1 %

Source: Deputy Director-agriculture. Aurangabad and Latur Division.

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Kharif and Rabi represent 99 % of the total annual CCA (Table 43). While Kharif potential CCA represents 73 % of the total annual irrigated area and 71 % of whole Marathwada area (Table 47).

Table 47. Potential area for irrigation (ha) per season in Marathwada

Kharif Rabi Summer Potential area for irrigation 4,601,940 1,656,456 55,895 (Ha) Percent from total area of 71 % 26 % 1 % Marathwada ( %) Source: Godavari Marathwada irrigation and development corporation

Overall potential CCA in Marathwada – 4.58 million Ha representing 71 % for the total Marathwada area.

Table 48. Total water requirement for agriculture per district (MM3)

Grand District Kharif Rabi summer Total Aurangabad 4,252 916 331 5,499 Beed 4,444 1,391 31 5,866 Hingoli 1,436 352 8 1,795 Jalna 3,538 464 125 4,128 Latur 2,435 1,077 8 3,520 Nanded 3,631 651 25 4,307 Osmanabad 1,793 1,152 12 2,957 Parbhani 2,604 1,079 40 3,722 Grand Total 24,133 7,081 580 31,794

Source: Deputy Director-agriculture. Aurangabad and Latur Division.

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Table 49. Water requirement for agriculture from Irrigation systems per district (MM3)

District Kharif Rabi summer Grand Total Aurangabad 2,133 750 325 3,152 Beed 2,313 1,079 31 3,422 Hingoli 505 327 8 840 Jalna 1,697 373 125 2,195 Latur 761 965 8 1,734 Nanded 1,339 584 25 1,948 Osmanabad 457 732 12 1,200 Parbhani 983 892 37 1,913 Grand Total 10,186 5,702 572 16,460 Source: Deputy Director-agriculture. Aurangabad and Latur Division.

Source: Deputy Director – Agriculture, Aurangabad and Latur Division office. Figure 56. Seasonal CCA Water demand at plot area - (MM3) per district

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Source: Deputy Director – Agriculture, Aurangabad and Latur Division office. Figure 57. Seasonal Water Requirements from irrigation system - (MM3) per District

Table 50. % of water required from irrigation system with relation to total agriculture water demand per district (water demand at CCA / water required from irrigation system ( %).

District Kharif Rabi Summer Aurangabad 49 % 73 % 99 % Jalna 48 % 80 % 100 % Beed 52 % 78 % 100 % Nanded 37 % 90 % 100 % Parbhani 38 % 83 % 100 % Hingoli 35 % 93 % 100 % Latur 31 % 90 % 100 % Osmanabad 25 % 64 % 100 % Source: Deputy Director – Agriculture, Aurangabad and Latur Division office.

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Source: Deputy Director-agriculture. Aurangabad and Latur Division office. Figure 58. Aurangabad districts: seasonal water required from irrigation system per taluka.

As can been seen from table 50, crop classification and irrigation efficiency necessitates between 25 % and 52 % of the crop water requirements to come from irrigation systems.

This share can, and should, be reduced using more efficient irrigation techniques and considerating crop water classification.

From the data obtained and presented in Appendix 9, it can be seen that the per crop demand for water for each district in Marathwada in 2017 (in MM3) as regards Rb Jowar, Gram, Tur, Soybean and Cotton is 74 % of the overall demand for water irrigation. Soybean and Cotton alone represent 50 % of the total water demand for irrigation in Marathwada.

Appendix 13 – The CCA (Ha) per crop for each district in Marathwada presents the relative percentage of crop area in relation to the total irrigated area.

Combining appendices 13 and 9, we see that while cotton consumes 31.65 % of all the water supplied and grows on 25 % of the total CCA, Soybean uses 17.36 %, but grows across over 23 % of the total CCA. In that case, Soybean is clearly the more water efficient crop to grow between the two.

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Appendix 12 - CCA and IWR for each of the talukas in Marathwada.

7.1 Agriculture water requirements projection

After analysing the seasonal and talukawise irrigation water requirements, a projection of the volume of water required for irrigation was made using the "Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Strategies for Maharashtra" (MSAAPC) report.

The farm sector is of crucial importance to the vast majority of the population throughout Marathwada. In the light of climate variability and change, the sector requires greater focus since the rural and poor inhabitants are most vulnerable to the impact of climate change. The performance of the sector depends largely on natural resources and water availability.

In order to calculate the projected change in water requirements from irrigation systems, two factors were needed: 1. Rainfall projections 2. Evapotranspiration projections

7.2 Monsoon rainfall projections

Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Strategies for Maharashtra (MSAAPC) report examining the future effects of a rise in temperature suggest an increase in rainfall as the temperature rise fuels the atmospheric mechanism that increases the monsoon rainfall (more analysis in report number 2). Table 51 summarises the projected increase in monsoon rainfall per district for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050.

The MSAAPC report presents rainfall projections for the years 2030 and 2050. In this report, for the calculation of rainfall increase for the year 2040, an average was taken between the projected years 2050 and 2030.

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Irrigation Water Requirements projection (IWR) per season – Appendix 8 – was calculated by subtracting from the IWR baseline the forecast change in the monsoon rain volume for each decade and adding the change of water volume increase from evapotranspiration.

퐼푊푅 푝푟표푗푒푐푡푖표푛 = 퐼푊푅 푏푎푠푒푙푖푛푒 ± 훥 푚표푛푠표표푛 푟푎푖푛 ± 훥 푒푣푎푝표푡푟푎푛푠푝푖푟푎푡푖표푛

Table 51. Projected increase in monsoon rainfall per district for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050.

Projected increase in monsoon rainfall ( % Projected monsoon increase from rainfall (mm)

baseline) Normal monsoon # District rainfall for 2030 2040* 2050 2030 2040* 2050 Marathwad a (mm)* 1 Hingoli 22.9 24.6 26.3 871 883 895 2 Beed 22.65 24.425 26.2 869 882 895 3 Nanded 19.22 21.26 23.3 845 859 874 4 Latur 17.93 19.765 21.6 836 849 862 708.8 5 Jalna 23.4 23.75 24.1 875 877 880 6 Parbhani 22.64 23.07 23.5 869 872 875 7 Osmanabad 19.8 19.98 20.16 849 850 852 8 Aurangabad 24.95 25 25.05 886 886 886 * Source: Assessing Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Strategies for Maharashtra (MSAAPC) projections for 2030 and 2050 (data for 2040 was calculated as average between 2030 and 2050)

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Source: Assessing Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Strategies for Maharashtra (MSAAPC) Figure 59. average monsoon rainfall projections per district

7.3 Evapotranspiration projections

The MSAAPC report projects average evapotranspiration to increase by up to 14.8 % above the current average by 2050. In this report, a 5 % decadal increase in evapotranspiration from 2030 to 2050 was assumed, rising to 15 % above the current baseline in 2050 (Table 52)

Table 52. Projected increase in evapotranspiration ( % increase from baseline) 2030, 2040, 2050

2030 2040 2050 Kharif Rabi Summer Kharif Rabi Summer Kharif Rabi Summer 2.5 % 5 % 7.5 % 7.5 % 10 % 12.5 % 12.5 % 15 % 17.5 % Source: Assessing Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Strategies for Maharashtra (MSAAPC) – 14.8 % rise of evapotranspiration by 2050.

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The evapotranspiration percentage rise was calculated from the root zone demand. IWR is the total amount of water entering the plot area out of which only 30 % reaches the root zone. Therefore, any increase in evapotranspiration increases the water demand at the root zone level. Table 53 shows the projected increase in water demand (Mm3) due to the rise in evapotranspiration.

Table 53. Projected increase in evapotranspiration (MM3 increase from baseline) 2030, 2040, 2050

Projected increase in Evapotranspiration (MM3)

2030 2040 2050

Kharif Rabi Summer Kharif Rabi Summer Kharif Rabi Summer

76.40 84.35 14.85 229.19 168.69 24.75 381.99 253.04 34.65

7.4 Water requirements projection

Appendix 8 - Marathwada irrigation water supply requirement projections for 2030, 2040 and 2050 per season, taluka and district present the water demand at plot CCA level and Water Requirements from irrigation system (IWR) as received from the Agriculture Department (Appendix 11) for each of the seasons. In short, the Agriculture Department supplied taluka-level data for the total area grown for specific crops (in hectares), the total amount of water per hectare required for the specific crop (mm) for a specific season (Kharif, Rabi, Summer) (WR) and also the specific amount of water needed to come from irrigation water supply systems (reservoirs, GW etc) – (IWR).

WR ≥ IWR

WR was given as the total amount of water needed to supply to the plot area. WR includes irrigation demand based on the soil–water balance: evapotranspiration, precipitation (mm), deep percolation from the crop root zone (mm), surface runoff (mm), groundwater contribution to the crop root zone (mm), and the change in soil water in the crop root zone (mm).

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In order to calculate the effect of evapotranspiration increase over the years, a Water Requirements from irrigation system (IWR) at root zone was calculated by taking 30 % from the water requirement to the plot area giving by the Agriculture Department.

Projected increase in evapotranspiration (PEVA) – (Column 25-33) was calculated as:

푃퐸푉퐴 (푀퐶푀) = 푃퐸푉퐴 ( 푝푒푟 푐푒푛푡 푖푛푐푟푒푎푠푒 푓푟표푚 푏푎푠푒푙푖푛푒) ∗ 퐼푊푅 푎푡 푟표표푡 푧표푛푒

Table 54. Seasonal water requirements from irrigation system at root zone (30 % of IWR) - (MM3)

Kharif Rabi Summer Total Water Requirements from irrigation 10,186.4 5,623.1 659.9 16,469.5 system (IWR) - (MM3) Water Requirements from irrigation system at root zone (30 % of IWR) - 3,055.9 1,686.9 198.0 4,940.8 (MM3)

Projections of potential irrigation water supply requirement (PIWR) per season (Column 34-42) were calculated by multiplying the IWR baseline per season by (100 % - projected monsoon rain increase from baseline %) + projected increase in evapotranspiration (MM3)

PIWR (MM3) = Baseline IWR (MM3) * (100 % - projected monsoon rain increase from baseline %) + projected increase in evapotranspiration (MM3)

Table 55 summarises projections of potential irrigation water supply requirement (PIWR) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 per season and per district (MM3).

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Table 55. Potential irrigation water supply requirements projections (in MM3) per season and per district

2030 2040 2050 K R S K R S K R S District Aurangabad 1,617 761 420 1,648 773 426 1,599 784 432 Jalna 1,312 379 128 1,332 384 130 1,288 390 132 Beed 1,806 1,095 31 1,800 1,111 32 1,707 1,127 32 Nanded 1,091 592 26 1,084 601 26 1,027 610 27 Parbhani 768 906 41 778 919 41 752 932 42 Hingoli 393 332 8 392 337 8 372 342 8 Latur 630 980 8 627 994 8 596 1,008 9 Osmanabad 370 743 12 376 754 12 365 765 12 Total season 7,987 5,787 675 8,037 5,873 685 7,705 5,959 695 Total year 14,449.7 14,595.0 14,358.3

K=Kharif R=Rabi S=summer

Figure 60 presents the decadal projections for irrigation water requirements (Mm3) as presented in table 55.

Source: year 2020 - Deputy Director-agriculture. Aurangabad and Latur Division office. Figure 60. Marathwada - water requirements from irrigation system (IWR) - (Mm3)

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7.5 Water efficiency projection

Different approaches have been defined for using water efficiently. The method of irrigation followed in Marathwada is mainly flood irrigation, which results in a lot of water loss.

Efficiency in irrigation can be achieved through: • Proper designing of irrigation systems for reducing losses in water conveyance. • The adoption of water saving technologies such as sprinkler and drip irrigation systems have proven extremely effective in not just water conservation, but also for deriving higher yields. • New agronomic practices like raised-bed planting, ridge-furrow method of sowing, sub-surface irrigation, and precision farming offer vast scope for economising on water use.

In this context, the Indian government has tried to inculcate new policies and schemes to improve agricultural productivity, while simultaneously increasing water-use efficiency, and is also introducing schemes to increase irrigated areas6.

Increasing water use efficiency by 20 % is one of the goals under the National Water Mission (NWM) and includes strategies such as the use of micro-irrigation techniques. The Maharashtra government has been encouraging the use of drip and sprinkler irrigation in the state by providing subsidies, as the use of these techniques can help address many issues related to water availability5. It is expected that surface irrigation efficiency will increase from 35-40 % to 60 % andgroundwater irrigation efficiency from 65 % to 75 %7.

6 Water and Agriculture in India - Background paper for the South Asia expert panel during the Global Forum for Food and Agriculture (GFFA) 2017

7 Projections of irrigation water demand in India: What do recent trends suggest? International Journal of River Basin Management 7(2):157-166 · June 2009 - © 2009 IAHR, INBO & IAHS

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Table 56. Projected irrigation efficiency per water source

Irrigation Year 2000 2025 2050 efficiency Surface water % 35-45 35-50 42-60 Ground water % 55-65 70 75 Source: Projections of irrigation water demand in India: What do recent trends suggest? Report4

Table 57. Projected Irrigation efficiency factor

Year 2000 2020 2030 2040 2050 Irrigation efficiency % 40 43 46 48 51 Increase from % 0 3 % 6 % 8 % 11 % baseline

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7.6 Water requirement projection using efficiency factor

Using the efficiency factors from table 57, a more accurate water requirement projection for the irrigation sector was calculated – table 58.

Table 58. Projected efficient water requirements from irrigation (IWR) - (MM3)

Year 2000 2020 2030 2040 2050 Water requirement (No efficiency MM3 16,548 14,450 14,595 14,358 factor) Irrigation % 40 43 46 48 51 efficiency Increase from % - 3 % 6 % 8 % 11 % baseline Water requirement MM3 - 496 867 1,168 1,579 reduction Water requirement MM3 - 16,052 13,583 13,427 12,779 projected Requirement MM3 496 867 1,168 1,579 reduction

Figure 61 shows the updated projection using the efficiency factors. Overall, using the efficiency factor, a reduction of 496 Mm3 from the previous projection was calculated for 2020 and 1,579 Mm3 for 2050.

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Figure 61. Marathwada - Water requirements from the irrigation system (IWR) - (MM3) – using the efficiency factor

7.1 Summary

Agriculture water requirements from irrigation system was calculated using talukawise data received from the Deputy Director - Agriculture, Aurangabad and Latur Division office, that included: 1. Water requirements (WR) per unit crop area for every season (mm). 2. Cultivated command area for each crop (Ha) 3. Water requirements from irrigation systems (IWR) per unit crop area for every season (mm) with regard to the average rainfall.

Using the above, calculation of the total water requirements from irrigation systems for every taluka was possible to calculate. Overall, a total of 16,548 MM3 was calculated as the IWR for the whole of Marathwada. This amount of IWR represent CCA of 4.6 million Ha (total CCA of the Kharif season). After calculating the current total water requirements and an analysis of forcast climate change factors such as rain, temperature and evapotranspiration, water requirements have been projected for 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050. Using expected forcast efficiency factors in the SW and GW irrigation systems, it was assumed that by 2050 the irrigation sector will become 11 % more efficient, saving about 1,579 Mm3 of water for the water economy.

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8. LIVELIHOOD WATER DEMAND

On October 30th in a meeting at Member Secretary, MJP’s office in Mumbai, the following design priniciples were given:

1. Stored waters in any dam (Major, Medium or Minor) are addressed to the command area located at the downstream of the reservoir (or lift irrigation scheme). Water for irrigation from a specific project should not be allocated to any other irrigation scheme that belongs to a different project command area.

2. Water dedicated for livelihood irrigation use can be delivered and distributed through BWS if the origin of the sources is external to Marathwada.

Two external water schemes are in different stages of development to supply water to the Marathwada region:

• Importing water from Ujni dam towards Osmanabad district and part of Beed district. Total water supplied to Marathwada was 650 MCM, of which only 51 % will reach Marathwada due to losses along the way, meaning 331.5 MCM (year of project completion 2020).

• Importing 115 TMC water from the Konkan scheme towards Aurangabad area during only the 4 months of the monsoon period. the water will be utilised for supporting livelihood rural activities in the Rabi period for those farmers located outside the project command area and who are using rain feed irrigation. Out of the 115 TMC, only 110 TMC will be available to the Marathwada region, the year of project completion being 2025.

3. Livelihood irrigation water supply was defined as 5,000 M3/Ha. As the livelihood water is designed to be supplied by pressurised pipes, 40 % water use efficiency will be achieved using advanced irrigation methods by 2050.

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4. Data concerning the area irrigated outside the command area should be presented by the Irrigation Department by 5.11.2018. Until the data are presented, the assumption of calculating the non-cultivated area (rainfed irrigation) was done by subtracting the CCA from the total area of the taluka. The rest of the taluka area – potential NCA - was compared to the total project NCA and was presented as percentage from the total area. Then, the total amount of water from the relevant external source was allocated according to the relative NCA size of each taluka.

This was done in order to calculate the relative ratio of external water allocation to each taluka.

Appendix 17 presents detailed calculations of livelihood water supply for each taluka during the Rabi season from each external project. Table 59 and 60 summerise the water volumes to be supplied during the Rabi season for each district from the external projects designed to supply water into Marathwada – Konkan and Ujni.

8.1 Konkan Project

The following design priniciples concerning Konkan project were given:

Konkan project TMC MCM

Water delivered from 115 3,254.5 Konkan

Water available from 100 2,830 Konkan to Marathwada

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Table 59. Livelihood - Rabi NCA* - (Ha and MCM/season) - Districtwise - Water allocation from Konkan project

Sum of Sum of Season Sum of Season Livelihood to District Area (Ha) CCA (Ha) potential Livelihood be supplied NCA (Ha) (MCM) (MCM) potential Aurangabad 1,002,949 200,237 802,712 542 461 Beed 838,670 211,064 627,606 424 360 Hingoli 470,682 82,863 387,819 262 222 Jalna 764,627 104,481 660,146 446 379 Latur 717,275 272,355 444,920 300 255 Nanded 1,051,536 160,004 891,532 602 511 Parbhani 629,920 251,816 378,104 255 217 Grand Total 5,475,659 1,282,820 4,192,840 2,830 2,406 The Konkan project water is assumed to be available for Marathwada during the year 2025.

8.2 Ujni project

The following design priniciples concerning Ujni project were given:

Ujni project TMC MCM

Water delivered from Ujni 23.8 673.5 towards Marathwada

Water supply to Marathwada after system 343.5 losses along the way 49 %

Domestic water supply 80.3

Livelihood potential 263.2

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Table 60. Livelihood - Rabi NCA* - (Ha and MCM/season) - talukawise - Water allocation from Ujni project

Season Season Taluka Potential Livelihood Taluka CCA Livelihood District Area NCA to be name (Ha) (MCM) (Ha) (Ha) supplied potential (MCM) Beed Ashti 147,014.2 61,200 85,814 37.3 31.75 Osmanabad Bhum 75,965.2 42,582 33,383 14.5 12.35 Osmanabad Kalamb 94,461.7 60,991 33,471 14.6 12.38 Osmanabad Lohara 53,052.0 7,723 45,329 19.7 16.77 Osmanabad Osmanabad 135,900.5 80,075 55,826 24.3 20.65 Osmanabad Paranda 86,616.9 10,803 75,814 33.0 28.05 Beed Patoda 75,420.8 38,100 37,321 16.2 13.81 Osmanabad Tuljapur 149,935.4 791 149,144 64.9 55.17 Osmanabad Umarga 99,459.4 42,397 57,062 24.8 21.11 Osmanabad Washi 60,576.7 28,974 31,603 13.8 11.69 Grand 978,403 373,636 604,767 263.2 223.7 Total

The Ujni project water is assumed to be available during 2020.

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8.3 Livelihood Summary

Table 61 summaries the total available livelihood water from the external Ujni and Konkan projects. Overall water available in the Rabi season from external projects: 2,629 MCM providing livelihood water for 525,845 Ha. As more efficient irrigation methods are undertaken, the same amount of water supplied will be able to irrigate more area, hence in 2050 an overall area of 876,408 Ha will be irrigated.

Table 61. Livelihood - Rabi NCA* - (Ha and MCM/season) - Summary - Water allocation

Rabi - (4 month) Potential Season Season 40 % Taluka potential NCA % Livelihood Livelihood Livelihood CCA (Ha) Loss efficiency Area (Ha) NCA (Ha) from (MCM) supplied (Ha) (Ha) total area potential (MCM) 6,454,062 1,656,456 4,797,606 74 % 3,093.2 15 % 2,629.2 525,844.9 876,408.2

Table 62 illustrates the increase of livelihood area over the years as more efficient irrigation methods get used.

Table 62. Livelihood area (ha) - area increase during the Rabi season over time

Livelihood 2020 2030 2040 2050 Rabi Season Supply MCM 2,629 2,629 2,629 2,629 Efficeincy irrigation factor % 0 % 10 % 25 % 40 % Livelihhod area irrigated 1,000 Ha 525.8 584.3 701.1 876.4

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9. WATER DEMAND SCENARIOS

Based on MJP-MDE agreement, feasible water supply options should be finalised based on the optimum Capex and Opex and convenience for implementation.

Feasible options will consider three base demand scenarios:

A: supply options for domestic only

B: supply options domestic + industry use

C: supply options domestic+ industry+ part of agriculture for livelihood (Ha per person to be decided)

9.1 Domestic

Domestic demand is the combined demand of rural, urban and bovine populations.

Table 63 and 64 summarise the total decadal demand projections for 2020-2050.

Table 63. Total decadal domestic water demand projection 2020-2050 (MCM)

YEAR URBAN RURAL BOVINE TOTAL 2020 262.7 223.5 75.2 561.4 2030 334.0 352.3 75.2 761.5 2040 434.9 406.5 75.2 916.6 2050 543.2 471.5 75.2 1089.9

Table 64. Domestic sectoral relevant percentage over the years 2020-2050 ( %)

YEAR URBAN RURAL BOVINE TOTAL 2020 47 % 40 % 13 % 100 % 2030 44 % 46 % 10 % 100 % 2040 47 % 44 % 8 % 100 % 2050 50 % 43 % 7 % 100 %

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9.2 Domestic and industry

Table 65 presents the domestic and industrial demand projections

Table 65. Domestic and industrial decadal demand projections 2020 -2050 (MCM)

YEAR Domestic INDUSTRY Total 2020 561.4 62.1 623.5 2030 761.5 68.3 829.8 2040 916.6 76.1 992.7 2050 1089.9 91.4 1181.3

9.3 Domestic, Industrial and Livelihood

Table 66 and 67 present the total sectorial water demand and livelihood supply projection for the decadal years 2020-2050

Table 66. Domestic, industrial and livelihood decadal demand projections 2020 - 2050 (MCM)

YEAR Domestic INDUSTRY Livelihood TOTAL 2020 561.4 62.1 223.7 847.3 2030 761.5 68.3 2,629.2 3,459.1 2040 916.6 76.1 2,629.2 3,622.0 2050 1089.9 91.4 2,629.2 3,810.5

Table 67. Domestic, Industrial and Livelihood relevant water demand percentage over the years 2020-2050 ( %)

YEAR Domestic INDUSTRY Livelihood TOTAL 2020 66 % 7 % 26 % 100 % 2030 22 % 2 % 76 % 100 % 2040 25 % 2 % 73 % 100 % 2050 29 % 2 % 69 % 100 %

The rise of livelihood water demand in 2030 is due to the water coming from the Konkan project.

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10. SUMMARY

1.1 Key understanding regarding demand projection

The report deals with water demand projections for 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050, the projections having been made on a Taluka level for the following sectors: • Urban • Rural • Industry • Agriculture • Bovine population • Livelihood

This report follows the first ‘current state’ report and together with the second ‘water resources projection’ report gives the foundations for the Feasibility report for an Integrated Marathwada (Aurangabad Division) Water Grid, planning, design and allocation of water resources project.

10.1 Domestic population projections

This report has taken the rural and urban population census data for three decades from 1981 to 2011 as base, and has forecast for the years 2020 to 2050 for calculating the increasing demand so as to ensure continuous water supply until 2050. The population forecasting was done for all the 76 talukas of Marathwada, using the mean results obtained by the Incremental increase method, Arithmetic progressive method and Geometric progression method.

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Table 68 summarises the domestic decadal change in population over 2020-2050

Table 68. Urban and rural population projections for decades 2020 - 2050

2020 2030 2040 2050 Urban Pop 6,235,933 7,787,787 9,712,180 12,062,224 Rural Pop 15,310,988 17,548,418 20,250,393 23,485,454 Urban/rural ( %) 41 % 44 % 48 % 51 % Urban/total ( %) 29 % 31 % 32 % 34 % Rural/total ( %) 71 % 69 % 68 % 66 % Total Pop 21,546,921 25,336,205 29,962,573 35,547,678

10.2 Domestic water demand

Demand projections for 2020 – 2050 were done by using MWRRA's order no 9 /2017 dt 22.9.2017 guidelines

Table 69 presents the decadal demand projections for the years 2020-2050 of both the rural and urban sectors.

Table 69. Urban and rural decadal demand projections for 2020 – 2050 with relative percentage

2020 2030 2040 2050 Urban Demand 263 334 435 543 Rural Demand 224 352 407 471 Total 486 686 841 1,015 Urban/Rural ( %) 117.51 % 94.82 % 106.99 % 115.21 % Urban/Total ( %) 54.03 % 48.67 % 51.69 % 53.53 % Rural/Total ( %) 45.97 % 51.33 % 48.31 % 46.47 %

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10.3 Bovine population

The Deputy Director - Agriculture, Aurangabad and Latur Divisions, provided figures of the bovine population by classification, together with consumption in LPCD.

Table 70 summarises the bovine population by type classification.

Table 70. Marathwada bovine population by type classification

Cows Buffs Total 3,722,162 1,276,929 4,999,091 Sheep Goat Total 304,319 1,555,729 1,860,048 Source: Deputy Director-agriculture. Aurangabad and Latur Division.

For the purpose of this report, the bovine population has been assumed to stay the same all through target years 2020-2050. Overall daily demand = 199,964 M3 + 7,440 M3 = 207,404 M3/day 207,404 M3/day x 365 days = 75.7 MCM/year

10.4 Industry water demand projections

The Marathwada Industrial Development Corporation (MIDC) furnished figures of the prevailing demand for water from the industrial sector and of the demand projected for 2050. Using the geometrical progression method for each centre, it was possible to calculate the water demand for the years 2020, 2030 and 2040 – table 71.

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Table 71. Current and projected Industrial water demand 2018 - 2050

2018 2020 2030 2040 2,050 L/D 203,260,000 206,742,833 225,606,586 247,429,552 304,760,000 M3/day 203,260 206,743 225,607 247,430 304,760 M3/year (300 71,141,000 72,359,991 78,962,305 86,600,343 106,666,000 days) Source: data for 2018 and 2050 was giving by MIDC

Appendix 5 presents the specific calculated geometric progression value that was used for each Taluka with an industrial centre.

10.5 Irrigation water requirements projections

This report analyses the Irrigation Water Requirement (IWR) in Marathwada as against available supplies and supply projections that will be presented in report number 4.

In analysing the talukawise and seasonal IWR, this report has considered the projections held out by the climate change report "Assessing Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Strategies for Maharashtra" (MSAAPC) for 2030 and 2050 and also the water use efficiency factor as it has projected that the irrigation sector will become more efficient in future.

Table 72 summarises the projected water requirements of the irrigation system for 2020-2050.

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Table 72. Projected water requirements from irrigation (IWR) - (MM3)

Year 2000 2020 2030 2040 2050 Water requirement MM3 16,548 14,450 14,595 14,358 Irrigation % 40 43 46 48 51 efficiency Increase from % - 3 % 6 % 8 % 11 % baseline Water requirement MM3 - 496 867 1,168 1,579 reduction Water requirement MM3 - 16,052 13,583 13,427 12,779 projected

10.6 Sectorial water demand

In this report, the concentration was upon water demand from the livelihood, industrial and domestic sectors. As projected, when the Konkan and Ujni projects will be operational, the livelihood water demand will account for about 70 % of total water supplied: 2,629 Mm3/year. Assuming that this amount will stay constant over the projected years, livelihood crop irrigation area will increase from 525,800 ha to 876,400 ha, as more efficient pressure irrigation methods will be introduced.

Domestic water supply will almost double from the total 561 Mm3 in 2020 to 1,090 Mm3 in 2050. Industry accounts for 2 % of water consumption and this will remain relatively the same.

Figures 62-65 show the rest of the water supply sectors: rural, urban, bovine and industrial, water demand and supply projections.

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Table 73. Domestic, Industrial demand and Livelihood supply decadal projections 2020 -2050 (MCM)

YEAR Domestic INDUSTRY Livelihood TOTAL 2020 561.4 62.1 223.7 847.3 2030 761.5 68.3 2,629.2 3,459.1 2040 916.6 76.1 2,629.2 3,622.0 2050 1089.9 91.4 2,629.2 3,810.5

Figure 62. Projected water demand/supply by sector 2020-2050 (MM3)

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Figure 63. Projected water demand/supply by sector 2020-2050 (MM3)

10.7 Demand scenarios

Based on the MJP-MDE agreement, feasible water supply will consider three base demand scenarios:

A: supply options for domestic only

B: supply options domestic + industry use

C: supply options domestic+ industry+ part of agriculture for livelihood (Ha per person to be decided)

Table 74 summarises the water demand projection for each of the base three scenarios.

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Table 74. Water demand scenarios projections 2020-2050 (Mm3)

Domestic and industry YEAR 2020 2030 2040 2050 Domestic 561 762 917 1,090 INDUSTRY 62 68 76 91 TOTAL 624 830 993 1,181

Domestic. Industry and livelihood YEAR 2020 2030 2040 2050 Domestic 561 762 917 1,090 INDUSTRY 62 68 76 91 Livelihood 224 2,629 2,629 2,629 TOTAL 847 3,459 3,622 3,811

10.8 The way forward

10.8.1 Talukawise sustainable water balance

Water demand varies widely from sector to sector and from place to place, but is increasing everywhere as the global population rises. At times, supply just cannot meet local demand, and this creates conflict. Climatic factors like drought and global warming, poor water management practices, and over-exploitation of water sources place pressure upon water supplies that are, more often than not, depleting. Water conservation measures and regional water management based on the principals of water economy are needed if we are to avert a regional water crisis.

The aim of the Marathwada water supply master plan project is to demonstrate the tools it takes to manage a regional scale water economy using talukawise resource and demand analysis. More important than meeting demand of any sector is to manage it. Like any economy, one should not spend more than one can sustainably earn. Water resources outside Marathwada borders can easily be found for domestic purposes. As for agricultural use, that solution is politically complicated and not always economically wise.

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