Grassroots and Rebellion: a Study on the Future of the Moro Struggle in Mindanao, Philippines
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King’s Research Portal DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/13698249.2012.740202 Document Version Publisher's PDF, also known as Version of record Link to publication record in King's Research Portal Citation for published version (APA): Podder, S., & Ozerdem, A. (2012). Grassroots and Rebellion: A Study on the future of the Moro Struggle in Mindanao, Philippines. Civil Wars, 14(4), 521. https://doi.org/10.1080/13698249.2012.740202 Citing this paper Please note that where the full-text provided on King's Research Portal is the Author Accepted Manuscript or Post-Print version this may differ from the final Published version. If citing, it is advised that you check and use the publisher's definitive version for pagination, volume/issue, and date of publication details. And where the final published version is provided on the Research Portal, if citing you are again advised to check the publisher's website for any subsequent corrections. 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Sep. 2021 Civil Wars ISSN: 1369-8249 (Print) 1743-968X (Online) Journal homepage: https://www.tandfonline.com/loi/fciv20 Grassroots and Rebellion: A Study on the Future of the Moro Struggle in Mindanao, Philippines Alpaslan Özerdem & Sukanya Podder To cite this article: Alpaslan Özerdem & Sukanya Podder (2012) Grassroots and Rebellion: A Study on the Future of the Moro Struggle in Mindanao, Philippines, Civil Wars, 14:4, 521-545, DOI: 10.1080/13698249.2012.740202 To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/13698249.2012.740202 Published online: 04 Jan 2013. Submit your article to this journal Article views: 957 View related articles Citing articles: 2 View citing articles Full Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at https://www.tandfonline.com/action/journalInformation?journalCode=fciv20 Grassroots and Rebellion: A Study on the Future of the Moro Struggle in Mindanao, Philippines ALPASLAN O¨ ZERDEM AND SUKANYA PODDER An important aspect in the resolution of civil conflict pertains to the political transition of rebel groups, dissipation of their command structures and reintegration of former combatants. In this paper, we draw on empirical data collected in select communities of Lanao, Cotabato and Maguindanao provinces of Mindanao, Philippines during June 2010 to explore future trends in civilian support for the main separatist rebel outfit in Mindanao – the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF). We test variance in the existence of recruitment pools among the two main Muslim ethnic groups – the Maranao and the Maguindanao. Our findings suggest that recruitment into MILF is not simply about religion or ideology, this is a simplification of its underlying support base. Several factors such as geographic location, especially proximity to Armed Forces of the Philippines camps, and conflict-related impacts of displacement, together with disparity in governance delivery levels, have resulted in divergence in levels of support for the Bangsamoro struggle between the two main ethnic groups. These variables will have an impact on the future existence of the MILF as a rebel movement. INTRODUCTION Community-combatant relations in civil conflict is today evolving as an important area of research; it draws on the trends in rebel group behaviour towards civilian communities that is well documented in recent research on insurgent and political violence.1 Rebel group–community interaction is a principal and agent relationship that can be mutually reinforcing, predatory, and protective or even symbiotic.2 Rebels rely on civilians to provide them sanctuary, provisions, information and other resources.3 Yet, for a positive support relationship, rebel groups need to transcend from being roving bandits to stationary providers of social services, prominently governance, justice, law enforcement and security.4 Key trends in current research highlight the nature of rebellion as being the primary determinant of rebel behaviour. Opportunistic rebellions permit indiscipline in their ranks to maintain membership and retain recruits. Predation is closely tied with limited access and heightened competition for resources and recruitment pools.5 Insurgent violence offers a strategic tool for controlling local population and Civil Wars, Vol. 14, No. 4 (December 2012), pp. 521–545 ISSN 1369-8249 print/ISSN 1743-968X online http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13698249.2012.740202 q 2012 Taylor & Francis 522 CIVIL WARS resources critical for group sustenance. Another strand of research investigates presence or lack of group competition and active rivalry as the defining variable of rebel behaviour.6 Civilians are at the centre of competing incentives from the rebel and government forces for loyalty, support and local resources. Selective incentives in the arena of public services, wages or security by either side may make affiliation fluid and contingent on who offers better benefits. Legal power wielded by the state may compensate for weak capacity by adding the leverage of imprisonment, and reprisal by the military.7 Targeted violence on civilians may seek to offset or undermine the government’s primary role of protection, making it imperative to rely on stronger rebels for security in areas controlled by them. Credible security guarantees from rebels can incentivise civilian support for them.8 Changes in rebel–civilian relations are relative to rebel capability and dynamic of insurgent-government contest. Hence, sympathy for and collaboration with rebels is contingent on the latter’s ability to protect in the long term.9 Conversely, indiscriminate violence may render civilians indifferent in their support to either side or simply lead them to evacuate.10 Organisational weakness can translate into violence directed towards civilians since governance provision and related benefits are less likely to be offered making it difficult to secure loyalty through peaceful means.11 Strong rebel groups often present a mix of selective incentives and selective repression to entice support. Counterinsurgency strategies by the government that is premised on indiscriminate regime violence can also undermine local support and result in turning rebels into preferred security providers. Today, rebel group and civilian interaction during conflict is of theoretical interest, also because of a growing interrogation into the dynamics of rebel group transition. How rebel groups transform in the post-conflict period can be related to their relationship with civilians and their pool of civilian support in war time. Roots of legitimacy, civilian support base and structures of governance, comprising prototypical state functions, germinate during conflict itself. These may prove to be enduring and can consolidate into legitimate political power when rebellions successfully transform into elected government. An important issue here is rebel governance. Effectiveness of rebel governance is embedded in an evolution of territorial control and relies on political legitimacy and support from the local population. In establishing hegemony or control, sustainability of rebel governance relies on consent as opposed to coercion.12 Trends in pre-conflict relations between state and society, together with ethnic composition and ideological motivation of rebel groups, impinge on design and conduct of rebel- led civil administration. Rebel groups need to transform into stationary bandits, hence the emphasis is on sustainability of rebel governance through civilian consent rather than coercive subjugation or conformity. This ‘stationary bandit thesis’ views rebel behaviour towards civilian communities and governance provisions as precursors to a new state apparatus.13 Despite current focus on these related themes, the community’s role in conflict continues to be an understudied element in civil war research. This paper seeks to FUTURE OF THE MORO STRUGGLE IN MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES 523 address this gap by exploring strong versus waning support in the context of long-duration civil conflicts using the case of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) in Mindanao, Philippines. Focus of the analysis will be to understand how conflict dynamics have shifted over time, and what that means for the role of communities in the recruitment of combatants into the MILF. To undertake such an exploration, the next section will first present an overview of the Mindanao conflict. Having presented the field research methodology and general findings from the questionnaire survey that was conducted with 229 households in Mindanao in June 2010, the paper will then present its analysis in the following section. Finally, the conclusions will focus around the question of future trends in civilian support for the MILF and whether the group is nearing its demise in light of a crumbling power