14.01.2019-20.01.2019 • No: 194 7

PRESIDENT MIRZIYOYEV’S PIVOT TO CENTRAL ASIAN COOPERATION: PROGRESS MADE OVER TWO YEARS Uzbekistan, which shares common borders the leaders signed an agreement to reopen 10 lenges in order to remove obstacles to commer- with all the Central Asian states and Afghani- border posts closed in 2001 and agreed to re- cial, economic and cultural ties between the stan, has become a key trendsetter in the region store the rail- and motorways connecting the fraternal nations. during the past two years. Shavkat Mirziyoyev, two countries. Of high importance was Mir- Accordingly, the commercial relations be- who came to power after the death of the coun- ziyoyev’s decision to demine the Uzbek-Tajik tween Uzbekistan and other Central Asian try’s first president, Islam Karimov, in August border by the end of 2019: in the 1990s, the states have been witnessing a dynamic growth 2016 and won the election in December 2016, Uzbek side mined the mountainous parts of the in the past two years. The volume of the Uz- is the driving force of Uzbekistan’s pivot to- border with Tajikistan. In addition, Tashkent bekistan-Kazakhstan mutual trade in the first wards Central Asia. From the onset, he has agreed to provide Dushanbe with the previ- nine months of 2018 was more than $2 billion, taken decisive and concrete steps to develop ously confidential map of the mined border ar- which is 40% higher than in the same period of mutually beneficial relations with the Central eas. Thus, the visit of the Uzbek leader to the 2017, whereas the sides set the goal to achieve Asian neighbors and made the region the main Tajik soil has become a vivid confirmation of the trade turnover of $5 billion in 2020. Uzbek- priority of Uzbekistan’s foreign policy. the thaw in Uzbekistan’s Central Asian rela- istan’s trade turnover with Tajikistan in Janu- President Mirziyoyev ushered the post-Kari- tions. ary-May 2018 doubled and increased to $94 mov era initiating changes in the country’s po- It is noteworthy that all the regional leaders million, while during the 11 months of 2018 litical and economic systems that includes the welcomed Uzbekistan’s initiatives and demon- the trade turnover with Kyrgyzstan reached a liberalization of the authoritarian rule and the strated interest in exploring opportunities of 55% growth, compared to the same period in implementation of economic reforms. In for- cooperation. Since 2017, the frequency of mu- 2017, and amounted to $363 million. Conse- eign policy, the government sets the goal of im- tual visits of the Central Asian presidents has quently, it can be concluded that President Mir- proving relations with the neighboring coun- significantly increased, facilitating the discus- ziyoyev’s foreign policy has opened up the tries in order to create a friendly neighborhood. sion of important political and economic is- economic potential of the regional interaction. There is an understanding that Uzbekistan’s sues, as well as the intensification of cultural Uzbekistan’s pivot to Central Asia has also sustainable development depends on its re- ties. Further, the heads of the Central Asian stimulated cultural and people-to-people con- gional policy and stability in the region. As states managed to create a multilateral platform tacts between the brotherly nations. In particu- Mirziyoyev stated, “Central Asia is a single or- for working together, without the participation lar, the introduction of the visa-free regime be- ganism that has had a common geographical, of external powers, when they gathered for tween Uzbekistan and Tajikistan and the sim- economic and cultural space for centuries”, their first working meeting held in Astana in plification of border crossing procedures on emphasizing that his regional policy consists of March 2018, on the eve of the Nauryz holiday. Uzbekistan’s borders with its Central Asian two elements – “not to avoid but discuss the Initiated by President Mirziyoyev, the meeting neighbors have already facilitated the recipro- existing issues and to seek reasonable compro- marked a common success on the way to form- cal movement of people and goods. Cultural mises”. ing a common regional identity, as well as the ties have also been strengthened: for instance, Following this statement, in order to “normal- aspiration of the Central Asian leaders to re- the first exhibition of Tajikistan’s culture and ize” relations, President Mirziyoyev made his solve the regional issues on their own. economic potential was held in Uzbekistan in first foreign visit to Turkmenistan in March During his visits to the Central Asian capitals, September 2017, for the first time in 20 years. 2017 that was followed by the visits to Kazakh- in addition to resolving the political issues, Meantime, 2018 was announced as the “Year stan and Kyrgyzstan later in 2017 and to Tajik- Mirziyoyev managed to expand economic and of Uzbekistan” in Kazakhstan, followed by the istan in 2018. During Mirziyoyev’s visit to commercial opportunities of cooperation with organization of more than 200 cultural events Turkmenistan, the parties signed the strategic the neighboring states. For instance, Uzbeki- to increase the interest of Kazakh people in Uz- partnership agreement, in addition to the agree- stan and Kazakhstan developed a road map for bek culture and traditions. Similarly, 2019 is ment on developing railway networks and economic cooperation that was further dis- proclaimed the “Year of Kazakhstan” in Uz- transportation infrastructure, which is expected cussed in Tashkent in September 2017. The bekistan which will also serve to promote Ka- to boost interregional and intraregional trade. first Kazakh-Uzbek Business Council, the zakh culture among Uzbeks. Moreover, the Vis-a-vis Kazakhstan, the Uzbek side further Joint Business Forum, as well as the Interre- forthcoming introduction of the Silk Road visa strengthened existing strategic cooperation and gional Forum that were subsequently held gave that will allow tourists visiting Kazakhstan to developed an action plan to boost economic co- an impulse to the development of bilateral enter Uzbekistan without difficulty and vice operation between the states. Mirziyoyev’s trade and economic ties. The Uzbek-Turkmen versa will contribute to the development of the September 2017 visit to Kyrgyzstan was his- relations were boosted by the agreement on the tourism sector of both sides. toric as it was the first in the last 17 years. The Uzbekistan-Turkmenistan-Iran-Oman transit In general, two years are not sufficient time to major breakthrough of the visit was the signing and transport corridor that will transform the assess the real implications and sustainability of the agreement on the Kyrgyz-Uzbek border, status of the Central Asian states from land- of the foreign policy strategy adopted by Pres- which makes possible the delimitation and de- locked to land-linked. Similarly, the newly es- ident Mirziyoyev. While the ongoing rap- marcation of 85% of the border, thus moving tablished Uzbekistan-Kyrgyzstan-China auto- prochement between the Central Asian states the countries closer to the end of their 26-year mobile corridor, initiated by the Uzbek Presi- shows their mutual interest in expanding coop- old border dispute. The parties also negotiated dent during his visit to China in May 2017, in eration, it is also understandable that integra- on the ways to find a compromise on Kyrgyz- addition to the construction of the new Uzbek- tion is not on the regional agenda due to vari- stan’s intention to continue the construction of istan-Kyrgyzstan-China railway, will form an ous domestic and external factors. In any case, the Upper Naryn cascade of hydroelectric important pillar of the Uzbek strategy to be- Mirziyoyev’s approach, which he announced power stations, the move opposed by Uzbeki- come a transit hub that will connect the Eura- at the UN General Assembly in September stan. President Mirziyoyev’s visit to Tajikistan sian states. As for Tajikistan, Mirziyoyev em- 2017, to promote a “new political atmosphere” in March 2018, the first since Karimov’s visit phasized that the Uzbek side was ready to dis- in the region based on “good-neighborliness” in 2000, was another historic achievement. The cuss the Rogun Dam project, if the interests of is being successfully implemented. The Uzbek parties overcame years of mutual animosity both sides were considered, thereby preventing leader’s pragmatic approach that has shifted and agreed to establish the 30-day visa-free re- the escalation of the water dispute into a real the emphasis of Uzbekistan’s regional policy gime, ending 17 years of mutual visas, and re- conflict. Thus, the pragmatic policy of the Uz- from politics to economy gives an impetus to sume flights between Tashkent and Dushanbe bek leadership in the region has focused on de- the development of both his own and other that had been terminated in 1992. Furthermore, veloping connectivity and addressing chal- Central Asian nations.

Written by Albina Muratbek Eurasian Research Institute, Kazakhstan

Politics, Foreign Affairs, and Security Economy, Finance, and Energy Society and Culture  Following the failure of the U.S.-Rus-  President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mir-  Under the project called Modern Ka- sian consultations on the Intermediate- ziyoyev visited India to participate in zakhstani Culture in the Global World, Range Nuclear Forces Treaty held in the Vibrant Gujarat Global Summit- the National Bureau of Translation non- Geneva, U.S. Under Secretary for Arms 2019 held in the city of Gandhinagar, profit foundation started the work to Control and International Security An- where he delivered a speech and met translate and publish anthologies of drea Thompson confirmed Washing- with Indian Prime Minister Narendra modern Kazakhstani literature into six ton’s intention to begin the process of Modi. Confirming their determination official UN languages – Arabic, Chi- withdrawing from the treaty. The U.S. to actively develop full-scale mutual co- nese, English, French, Russian, and side rejected Moscow’s offer to inspect operation, the parties signed a number Spanish. Each anthology will be pub- the 9M729 missile system, which pre- of documents, including the agreement lished with a circulation of at least sumably violates the treaty, and de- on long-term supplies of Uzbek ura- 10,000 copies. The project is also aimed manded its complete destruction. nium to India. at familiarizing the world with contem-  Foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Ar-  The State Investment Committee of Uz- porary Kazakh musical and visual arts, menia Elmar Mammadyarov and bekistan organized the Uzbek-German choreography, cinematography, and Zohrab Mnatsakanyan held consulta- business forum in Berlin. At the event theater. tions hosted by the co-chairs of the attended by more than 300 representa-  According to the State Statistics Com- OSCE Minsk Group in Paris to discuss tives from 234 German companies and mittee of Uzbekistan, as of January 1, a wide range of issues related to the set- banks, more than $4 billion worth of 2019, the country’s resident population tlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh con- contracts were signed covering projects reached 33,254,100 people increasing flict. The parties considered steps to- in the oil and gas sector, petrochemistry, by 597,400, or 1.8%, in 2018. In partic- ward a possible summit between their energy, healthcare, pharmaceuticals, ular, the urban population is 16.8 mil- leaders and ways to prepare their popu- agriculture, food industry, and construc- lion people (50.5% of the total popula- lations for peace. tion. tion), and the rural population is 16.45  According to Kazakhstan’s Ministry of million people (49.5%).  During the meeting with Turkish Na- National Economy, in 2018, the coun-  The delegation of Azerbaijani officials tional Defense Minister Hulusi Akar in try’s GDP grew by 4.1% compared to visited Uzbekistan to study the coun- Minsk, Belarusian President Alexander 2017, while industrial production in- try’s experience in operating the system Lukashenko stated that Belarus and creased by the same 4.1%. In particular, of public services and organizing work Turkey had always been reliable friends production of oil amounted to 90.4 mil- with the population. They held meetings and partners and pledged to remain lion tons (an increase of 4.8%), gasoline at the Ministry of Justice and the committed to this policy. Hulusi Akar – 4 million tons (29.8%), gas oil – 4.7 Agency for Public Services and became also held talks with his Belarusian coun- million tons (7.4%), copper ore – 103.2 acquainted with activities of public ser- terpart Andrei Ravkov to discuss the million tons (8.6%), electricity – 107.1 vice centers and people’s reception of- state and prospects of bilateral military billion kWh (3.8%), and flour – 4 mil- fices of the President of Uzbekistan. cooperation. lion tons (0.7%).  According to the Institute of Geography  The working groups of the joint Uzbek-  Iran received the first cargo shipment of Azerbaijan’s National Academy of istan-Turkmenistan intergovernmental sent overland from eastern China via Sciences, average losses caused by nat- commission on delimitation and demar- Kazakhstan’s territory. The cargo that ural disasters to the country’s economy cation of the interstate border held their included bicycle and industrial machin- annually are estimated at $250-300 mil- regular meeting in the Uzbek city of ery parts, wallpaper, brake pads, among lion, which equals 0.4-0.5% of the Karshi. During the negotiations, the par- other items, was sent from the Chinese GDP. Experts suggest to stimulate the ties reviewed proposals on the passage port of Ningbo on a freight train towards development of an appropriate insur- of the project demarcation line and Khorgos, then to Aktau, where it was ance market to effectively compensate agreed on the table detailing the distri- loaded into containers and sent to Iran’s the population and economic entities for bution of demarcation activities. Caspian Port in the Anzali Free Zone. damage resulting from natural calami-  A high-ranking military delegation led  Belarus joined the Asian Infrastructure ties. by Chief of the General Staff of Iran’s Investment Bank (AIIB), meeting all  Turkmenistan’s Academy of Sciences Armed Forces Major General Moham- the requirements of the AIIB board of drafts a seismic risk reduction program, mad Bagheri visited Baku. During the governors. The country’s Ministry of in partnership with the country’s gov- two-day visit, Bagheri met with Presi- Finance will serve as an official liaison ernment agencies and with support of dent of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev and the body for interaction with the bank. The the Japan International Cooperation country’s Defense Minister Colonel accession to the AIIB opens new oppor- Agency. The document will outline General Zakir Hasanov to discuss the tunities in infrastructure financing for measures for mitigating social, eco- development of bilateral cooperation in Belarus, primarily under China’s Belt nomic and environmental consequences the defense sector, border control and and Road Initiative. associated with possible earthquakes the fight against terrorism.  The value of Georgia’s foreign trade in- and increasing the emergency prepared- creased by 17% in 2018, compared to ness of the population and organiza-  President of Kyrgyzstan Sooronbay tions. Jeenbekov took part in the ceremony of 2017, and reached $12.5 billion. Ex- ports of Georgian commodities grew by  An executive decision by Turkish Pres- handing over 125 Russian-made auto- 22.9% and amounted to nearly $3.4 bil- ident Recep Tayyip Erdogan removed motive and special vehicles to the coun- lion, while imports rose by 14.9% ex- the social security requirement for try’s State Border Service. The aid was ceeding $9.1 billion. According to smokers seeking to quit the harmful rendered by Russia in accordance with Georgia’s Ministry of Economy and habit. The country’s Ministry of Health the intergovernmental agreement on the Sustainable Development, the geo- will provide free nicotine replacing provision of $48.58 million worth of graphical expansion of sales markets is medicines to hospitals and clinics technical assistance to Kyrgyzstan as one of the factors explaining the growth tasked with helping smokers. Due to the part of Bishkek’s accession to the Eura- of the country’s exports. government’s measures against smok- sian Economic Union.  The European Commission and the ing, such as the smoking ban in public  Representatives of the defense agencies World Bank co-authored an Indicative places and higher taxes on cigarettes, of the Shanghai Cooperation Organiza- trans-European Transport Network In- the smoking rate in Turkey declined to tion (SCO) member states responsible vestment Action Plan in an effort to im- 31.6% in 2016. for international military cooperation prove connectivity and economic  President Erdogan ratified the protocol held a meeting in Bishkek. During the growth in the Eastern Partnership coun- to the November 2012 agreement on the talks, the military delegations of China, tries. The plan identifies priority pro- mutual cancellation of the visa regime India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Paki- jects in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, between Turkey and Moldova. The pro- stan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine that will tocol, signed during Erdogan’s October discussed the plan of cooperation for require almost €13 billion of investment 2018 visit to Moldova, the first in 19 2020-2021 and reviewed the agenda of to finance the construction and rehabili- years, enables citizens of the two coun- the upcoming meeting of the SCO de- tation of 4,800 km of roads and rail- tries to travel visa-free using internal fense ministers. ways, six ports, and 11 logistics centers. identification documents.

Prepared by Dauren Aben and Kanat Makhanov