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Unclassifi7d Classification: 1 UICIASSTID, UNITED STITES UNENWIONAL DEVELOPMT COOPERATION AGENCY AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOP MENT Wahington. D. C. 20523 NICARAGUA PROJECT PAPER ECONOMIC SUPPORT FUND (ESF) AID/LAC/P-867 PROJECT NUMBER: 524-0333 UNCLASSIFI7D CLASSIFICATION: 1. PAAD Number 524-0333 AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT 2. Courtry Nicaragua PROGRAM ASSISTANCE 3. Category APPROVAL DOCUMENT Cash Transfer (PAAD) 4. Date 5, To 6. OYB Change Number Mark Schneider, AA/LAC 8. OYB Increase 7. From Eric Zallman, LAC/DR To be taken from: Economic Support Fund (ESF) 9. Approval Requested for Commitment of 10. Appropriation Budget Plan Code S 40,000,000.00 "1. Type Funding 12. Local Currency Arrangement 13. Estimated Delivery Period 14. Transaction Eligibility Date 0 -Loan 0 Grant I E Informal E Formal El None FY94 "5. Commodities Financed 16. Permitted Source 17. Estimated Source U.S. only U.S. Limited F.W. Industrialized Countries Free World Local Cash Other 18, Smnmary Description Economic Recovery and Development I (ERD-I) continues USG support to Nicaragua's policy reforms. The $40 million cash transfer's disbursement will be conditioned on the Government of Nicaragua's (GON's) implementation of specific reforms in the areas of: (1) resolving property disputes, (2) improving financial management of public funds, (3) dealing with fiscal and balance-of-payments deficits, and (4) expanding private participation in the financial sector. qn addition, the GON will covenant to maintain compliance with all reform conditions of earlier ESR agreements. A.I.D. will deposit the $40 million cash transfer in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York for use in financing Nicaragua's debt-service payments to multilateral organizations (approximately $13 million), and to finance or reimburse eligible private im­ ports from the United States and Central America (approximately $27 million) handled by Nicaragua's private commercial banks. Import financing and reimbursement will generate local currency, which will be deposited in the Central Bank of Nicaragua (BCN) and used: (1) to finance up to the equivalent of $5 million of the local costs of certain project activities, preferably through a new Program Trust Fund; (2) to increase by up to the equivalent of $0.5 million the GON's contribution to USAID's existing Program Trust Fund for administration, control, and audit of U.S. assistance; (3) to pay existing GON debts to the BCN; and (4) to offset accumldated foreign-exchange losses of the BCN. 19. Clearances i/ate 20. Action LAC/DR:SA1exander&JW 1, '\/j I/ LA/DPP:JStepanek _ . C / APPROVED C DISAPPROVED LAC/CE: Eckerson&KEls/If/ 4, /g ARA/ U: .Harrington ..* -gnq' Authorized? Date ARA/EN:U .chonander '_X i )oL.ca) GC/LAU:J.Melghan Title rk Schneider FA/ : Greene 8 T 1/ Assistant Administrator, LAC Bureau DAA/LAC:NLarker .LASSIFICATION.J ?I~W ~ 1 0:" APPR: MS () DRAFT: SA CLEAR: NP UNCLASSIFIED CLEAR: EZ CLEAR: JW ( ) AID/LAC/DR/CEN&CAR:SALEXANDER:CABLE2.ERD CLEAR: DE ( ) 12/16/93 647-9171 AID/AA/LAC:MSCHNEIDER CLEAR: KE ( ) DAA/LAC :NPARKER LAC/DR: EZALLMAN (DRAFT) LAC/DR:JWALL (DRAFT) LAC/CEN:DECKERSON (DRAFT) LAC/CEN:KELLIS (DRAFT) GC/LAC:RMEIGHAN (DRAFT) LAC/DPP:JSTEPANEK (DRAFT) FA/B:BGREENE (DRAFT) IMMEDIATE MANAGUA AIDAC E.O. 12356: N/A TAGS: SUBJECT: AUTHORIZATION OF ERD-I (524-0333) REF: STATE 352407 DATED 11/20/93 1. AA/LAC AUTHORIZED ERD-I PROGRAM '524-0333) AT A FUNDING LEVEL OF DOLS. 40 MILLION ON JANUARY 11, 1994, TO BE OBLIGATED AND DISBURSED IN ONE TRANCHE. THE CONGRESSIONAL NOTIFICATION EXPIRED ON DECEMBER 14, 1993. 2. MISSION MAY PROCEED TO OBLIGATE AND DISBURSE FUNDS UPON RECEIPT OF SEPTEL NOTIFICATION THAT AN ADVICE OF BUDGET ALLOWANCE HAS BEEN ISSUED. YY UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED 2 CLEARANCE PAGE FOR NICARAGUA AUTHORIZATION CABLE ERD-I (524-0333) GC/LAC:RMEIGHAN DATE 1%L LAC/DPP:JSTEPANEK DATE j'@' FA/B:BGREENE - - DATE21 / ARA/ECP: JHARRINGTON DATE ARA/CEN: CSCHONANDERC , DATE IL UNCLASSIFIED Table of Contents I. Introduction and Executive Summary .......................... 1 I1. Relationship to USAID's Strategy ............................ 3 Ill. The Impact of BOP Assistance ............................. 3 A. Macroeconomic Impact . .............................. 3 B. Social Im pact ..................................... 6 IV. Macroeconomic Developments in 1992-93 .................... 7 A. National Output and Spending ........................... 7 B. Foreign Trade and the Balance of Payments ................. 10 C. Money, Finance, Inflation, and Exchange Rates ............. 12 D. Public-Sector Finances ............................... 13 V. Economic Policy Reforms in 1992-93 ........................ 14 A. The Productive Framework ............................ 14 B. International Trade Policies ............................. 16 C. Monetary and Financial Policies .. ....................... 17 D . Fiscal Policies ................................... 21 VI. The GON's Medium-Term Development Policy ................ 22 VII. ERD-l's Policy Reform Program ........................... 23 A. Resolution of Property Claims .......................... 24 B. Accountability in the Public Sector ....................... 25 C. Macroeconomic Stabilization ........................... 26 D. Financial-Sector Reform .............................. 26 VIII. Dollar Uses ...................................... 29 A. Proposed Disbursement Plan ........................... 29 B. Separate Account Criteria and Operating Procedures .......... 30 IX. Uses of Local-Currency Generations ........................ 32 A. Program m ing .................................... 32 B. Accountability ................................... 33 Lj Appendixes ERD-I's Policy Conditions ................................. 36 Concept Paper Approval Cable ............................... 38 PAAD Approval Cable ................................... 40 Environmental Threshold Decision ............................. 42 Statistical Appendixes National Product by Sector ............................. 44 National Expenditure ................................... 45 Balance of Payments ................................. 46 Exports (FOB) by Major Category .......................... 47 Imports (CIF) by Major Category ........................... 48 Monetary Accounts of the Financial System .................. 49 Consumer Prices and Wage Rates .......................... 50 Fiscal Balance: Non-Financial Public Sector .................... 51 Fiscal Balance: Total Public Sector .......................... 52 Statutory Checklist ..................................... 53 December 1993 ERD-I PAAD 1 I. Introduction and Executive Summary In July 1993, AID/Washington approved the Mission's Concept Paper proposing the Economic Recovery and Development Program I (ERD-I), a cash transfer of FY93 ESF, for balance-of-payments (BOP) assistance subject to conditionality relating to democratic governance, macroeconomic adjustment, financial sector reform, and natural resource management. (See the Concept Paper approval cable, page 38.) Through this PAAD, USAID/Nicaragua requests AID/Wash­ ington's authorization of the Mission's final design of this assistance at the $40 million level, which is consistent with the FY1993 ESF allocation. ERD-I is an integral part of the Mission's multi-year assistance strategy reaf­ firmed by AID/Washington in February 1993. It contributes directly to meeting the Mission's Strategic Objectives of increased investment and increased com­ petitiveness, diversification, and participation in the economy. In addition, it contributes to the Strategic Objective of building a greater consensus on demo­ cratic values. BOP assistance continues to be vital in Nicaragua's current circumstances. Nicaragua's import bill in Unfinanced 1992 was more than triple the size of export reve- BOP Gap nues. (See the table "Balance of Pa,ments," below Year $ ins on page 46.) While the trade imbalance was com­ pletely financed in 1992, a combination of factors, 1993 151 including reduced donor assistance and higher debt 1994 189 service payments, has resulted in a financing gap that for 1993 was estimated at $151 million as late 1995 181 as August and that is projected to continue for 1996 205 several years. U.S. BOP assistance would go a long way toward cushioning the inevitable contraction in Projections by the imports in the coming months. World Bank as of August 1993, as- The IMF projects that large BOP deficits will continue suming no U.S. to require financing through the end of the decade. BOP assistance. Too-rapid reduction in BOP assistance in this situa­ tion could jeopardize the economic and political stability that is vital to bringing private investment back to Nicaragua and to solidifying democratic institutions. Nicaragua also needs BOP assistance to attenuate the substantial human hardship that its population is already experi­ encing because of economic disruption in the 1980s. In a separate study, the Mission will evaluate the net benefits at the grass-roots level of BOP assistance in more detail. AID should continue to support policy reforms with substantial aid resources to ensure that the GON can follow through on its commitment to maintain and 2 ERD-I PAAD December 1993 deepen economic and legal reforms. Since 1991 the GON has substantial achievements to its credit in reducing the fiscal deficit and inflation, liberalizing and privatizing the financial sector, and liberalizing foreign trade and the ex­ change-rate regime. Since mid-1 992, the GON has also revitalized its effort to reestablish property rights and security
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