The Socionomist a Monthly Publication Designed to Help Readers Understand and Prepare for Major Changes in Social Mood

The Socionomist A monthly publication designed to help readers understand and prepare for major changes in social mood

November 2011

1 Cable news networks profit from negative mood

3 Robo-pop’s path mirrors that of Disco 30 years ago

8 To be, or not . . . ? Mood’s influence on accusations of presidential ineligibility

9 Attacks indicate the Amish, though isolated, may also be influenced by mood

PO Box 1618 • Gainesville, GA 30503 USA A publication of the Socionomics Institute 770-536-0309 • 800-336-1618 • FAX 770-536-2514 www.socionomics.net © 2011 SOCIONOMICS INSTITUTE Bad Mood is Good News Negative Social Mood Translates Into Positive Ratings for Cable News Networks

By Euan Wilson and Matt Lampert

In May we explored the swings in popularity for an even closer look (Figure 2). We found that Fox News’ Fox News’ Glenn Beck, a bear market icon whose recent viewership has fluctuated roughly inversely to mood. fortunes correlated closely with changes in social mood Positive mood peaked in 2000. Fox News’ viewership as indicated by the stock market.1 grew each year of the ensuing 2½-year decline (Trend This month, we set out to answer a larger question: A). Then, during the positive mood years of 2003–2007, Is the popularity of news itself mood-dependent? As Fox News’ viewership drifted lower by roughly 200,000 our preliminary study shows, the answer appears to be viewers (Trend B). But then as mood turned negative “Yes.” again through 2008 and 2009, Fox News gained 400,000 Figure 1 illustrates the aggregate viewership of the viewers, recovering double the previous years’ losses four major U.S. cable news networks. It shows that from in less than half the time (Trend C). More recently, the 2000 to 2003, as social mood became more negative, channel hit its all-time peak in viewership at the end of the DJIA declined and news viewership went up. From 2009 and then began trending lower in concert with the 2003 to 2007, as social mood became more positive, DJIA’s rally from 2009 through 2010. the DJIA advanced and news viewership went down. This short story seems to say that watching the news But once again, social mood became more negative, is a more compelling activity in bear markets. Why causing the DJIA to collapse toward its 2009 low and might that be the case? In 1999, Prechter’s The Wave news viewership to surge. Finally, social mood became Principle of Human Social Behavior noted a similar more positive again, prompting the DJIA to rally and relationship regarding the markets and the popular- viewership to fall roughly in concert through the end ity of economic cycle theories. Prechter reported that of the survey period. We decided to take a deeper look. First we retrieved monthly ratings data from the online re- pository mediabistro.com. The site gathers networks’ news ratings from network news releases. Its data go back to June 2005. We plotted the data and found a positive correlation (+44%) between the inverted DJIA and viewership. Further, we detrended the data to make certain that the inverse relation- ship is not due solely to general overall trends in both data se- ries. The relationship held. Finally, we singled out Fox News, the most-watched news network in America today2, for Figure 1 We regularly release new socionomic reports. If you would like us to email you whenever we release a resource, you may request notification here:www.socionomics.net/1111-email-update The Socionomics Institute • www.socionomics.net P.O. Box 1618 • Gainesville, GA 30503 USA • 770-536-0309 • 800-336-1618 • FAX 770-536-2514 The Socionomist—November 2011 membership in the Foundation for the Study of Cycles The results of our small study corroborate the idea tended to rise when the stock market fell and fall when that people are more inclined to (1) sell stocks and the market rose, that books on cycles were strong sell- (2) tune into television news during times of increas- ers in the corrective period of the 1970s, and that at the ingly negative social mood, which induces feelings of uncertainty. When mood recovers and the feeling of certainty returns, people pay less attention to the news. We have long heard the adage, “bad news sells.” This study provides graphic and statistical evi- dence for that assertion. In addition, we suggest that it is not the tradi- tional “prurient interest” or “anxiety” that fuels the increase in news con- sumption but misplaced feelings of uncertainty about the future. There is in fact no basis for people Figure 2 to feel less certain about stock market top in 1999, the Foundation for the Study the future during periods of negative social mood than of Cycles folded after more than 50 years of operation. during periods of positive social mood. One can be Prechter offered this explanation: just as certain that a trend is down as that it is up. But The answer is that people equate uptrends with since this is not people’s normal default, association of predictability and downtrends with unpredictability. uncertainty with scary times is probably unconscious, [A] Harper’s Weekly quote from 1857 includes the just like social mood. phrase, “never has the future seemed so incalculable as at this time.” Translation: “The market has been Euan Wilson writes for The Socionomist. Matt Lampert falling for several years.” The media constantly char- is the Institute’s Research Fellow at the University of acterize market setbacks as injecting “uncertainty” Cambridge. into a picture of the future that presumably was previously as clear as crystal. I am not exaggerating when I say that this foible is timeless.3 cITATIOnS 1Wilson, E. (2011, May). The status quo returns: Optimism The idea is that during positive mood periods, people increases, dow doubles and society settles down: 2. do not perceive as much uncertainty as they do dur- Glenn Beck’s goodbye: The rise and fall of a cable news personality. The Socionomist. ing negative mood phases. They become more sure of 2Stelter, B. (2011, October 9). Victory lap for Fox and things. “Everyone is an expert,” Prechter says. Hannity. The New York Times, Retrieved from http:// A similar function may be at work in the news- www.nytimes.com/2011/10/10/business/media/ watching habits of people. In other words, as they fox-news-and-hannity-at-the-top-after-15-years. become less certain about the world, they look for more html?pagewanted=all. 3Prechter, R. (1999). The Wave Principle of Human Social information in an attempt to understand what’s going on. Behavior (pp. 342-343). Gainesville, Georgia: New They show their feelings of uncertainty in the markets Classics Library. during these periods, too, by bidding prices lower.

2 The Socionomist—November 2011 e Auto-Tune Epidemic “Robo-Pop” Has Much in Common with Disco

By Jill Noble

When was the last time you listened to Top-40 mu- … it is something that is cropping up on the records sic? If it was anytime in the past few years, we’re betting of artists who can actually sing. You’re hearing Auto- that almost every song you heard contained unnatural, Tune all over, and that’s a shame.6 robotic-sounding vocals. The air waves are saturated with this style of dance music today, including hits from Nic Bertino, a Sacramento-based producer, estimates Katy Perry, Maroon 5 and Lady Gaga.1 that 95% of all “radio-ready” recording sessions today The culprit? Pitch correction software. When it is use Auto-Tune in some fashion.7 used heavily, it makes the human voice sound computer- Occasional backlashes have formed, with the public ized. We term this digital-vocoder sound “Robo-Pop,” criticizing pitch-corrected live performances.8,9 But will and arguably it has become its own genre. The New discontent with Robo-Pop ever come to a head? Yorker writes, To answer that question, and to predict the trajectory … pitch correction has also taken on a second life, of the Robo-Pop trend, we turn to socionomics. First, as an effect.…Auto-Tune software detects pitch, and let’s look at a similar era in the past. when a vocal is routed through Auto-Tune, and a setting called ‘retune speed’ is set to zero, warbling A Parallel Phenomenon begins.… [W]hen sung pitches alternate too quickly As a genre, disco music was a departure from the the result sounds unnatural, a fluttering that is de- previously dominant rock, pop and R&B styles that scribed by some engineers as ‘the gerbil’ and by were popular in the preceding positive-mood period.10 others as ‘robotic.’2 Its genesis was in the middle days of a Cycle-degree bear market, which, in inflation-adjusted terms, ran from The spark began with Cher’s 1998 hit song “Be- 1966 to 1982 (see Figure 1). lieve,” and it has fanned into an Auto-Tune wildfire,3 From its beginnings, disco attracted critics. But fueled substantially by robot-voiced rapper T-Pain’s by late in the bear market, a surprisingly violent back- 2007 album Epiphany. This year’s widely panned lash developed. “The world’s largest anti-disco rally,” Super Bowl halftime show featured pop artists with aka “Disco Demolition Night,” was held on July 12, multi-platinum albums whose performances relied on 1979 at Comiskey Park in Chicago during a baseball Auto-Tuned microphones.4 Last year, award-winning game between the Chicago White Sox and the De- singer Taylor Swift was criticized for a lackluster, troit Tigers. What began as a publicity stunt to blow Auto-Tuned performance at the Grammys.5 Her album up a crate full of disco records ended in a riot. Fans sales didn’t suffer, however—and this year’s nominees charged the field, set fires and destroyed property; included other Robo-Pop artists. flying vinyl records and general brawling caused numer- Record producers rely on pitch correction software ous injuries.11 because it saves money by reducing the amount of time Yet even as some listeners grew violent toward spent in the studio. Plus, according to Chicago engineer/ disco, artists from other genres climbed aboard the disco producer Ken Sluiter, “when used creatively, it sounds bandwagon. Blondie, Cher, The Rolling Stones, David really cool, and you can get great results.”6 Bowie, Rod Stewart, The Kinks, ELO, George Benson, Most music industry pros, however, claim that Auto- Queen, Paul McCartney & Wings and Kiss all produced Tune software also has ushered in a decline in artistry. disco hits, and the Saturday Night Fever soundtrack Andy Karp, vice president of A&R for Lava/Atlantic ruled the airwaves. The genre finally faded out in 1982, Records, says: the very year of the bottom in the Dow/PPI ratio. (Continued on page 6)

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3 The Socionomist—November 2011

Figure 1

Figure 2

4 The Socionomist—November 2011

Figure 3

Figure 4

5 The Socionomist—November 2011 Source: The Vault of Buncheness The Vault Source: Source: Chicago Reader Source: Wikipedia : Rate Your Music Your Source : Rate Source: Kill From the Heart Disco Parodies: The song “Sister Disco” was in- Disco Haters: In 1978, the group D.O.A. released Disco Sucks (Album Art: Sudden cluded on The Who’s multi-platinum album Who Are Death Records). Fans displayed a “Disco Sucks” banner during Disco Demolition You in 1978 (Album Art: Polydor Records/iTunes). Night in 1979 (Photo: Diane Alexander White). And in 1980, The Dead Kennedys The following year, Frank Zappa included the song released b-side “Saturday Night Holocaust,” which compared disco’s drug-saturated “Dancin’ Fool” on his Sheik Yerbouti album (Album culture to the cabaret culture in Nazi Germany (Cover Art: Alternative Tentacles Art: Zappa Records). Record Label). aim! Source: One a Day Source: Nah Right Magazine Source: Excl Source: This Must Be Pop Source: Source: The Gregory Brothers Robo-Pop Flip-Floppers: In 2009, Christina Aguilera Auto-Tune Haters and Parodies: Neko Case spoke out against Auto Tune in a was spotted wearing a T-shirt that protested the use of 2006 interview with Pitchfork (Album Art: ANTI-Record Label). Members of the Auto-Tune technology. The following year, her album group Death Cab For Cutie wore blue “Auto-Tune Awareness” ribbons to the 2009 Bionic featured Robo-Pop sounds. In 2009, rapper Grammy Awards ceremony (Photo: Lester Cohen/wire image). And in 2010, The Jay-Z released an anti-Auto-Tune album featuring Gregory Brothers released “Auto-Tune the News - Bed Intruder Song,” which was the Grammy-winning lead single “Death of Auto-Tune” based on a news interview with a man whose sister was a victim of attempted rape (Cover Art: Roc Nation/Atlantic Records). This year, he (Album Art: Shelli Langdale/Gregory Residence Records). collaborated with Kanye West on a heavily Auto-Tuned album titled Watch The Throne.

(Continued from page 3) Prechter observed that polarization in pop music is rising while others are falling—the latter in inflation- characteristic of deep negative mood periods (see Figure adjusted indexes. Disco and Robo-Pop both appeared 2). For example, in the 1970s, disco’s rise and fall coin- first in the nascent days of respective bear mood phases cided with punk music’s heyday and denouement: (see Figures 1 and 3). Both genres feature synthesized … bear market moods produce social opposition as instrumentation and vocals, orchestral builds and breaks opposed to alignment. In the bull market of the 1950s and instrumental layering that create sonic “highs.” Crit- and 1960s, young people all listened mostly to the ics of both styles contend that they suffer from electronic same music. The bear market, in contrast, sported two over-production and a dearth of artistry. distinct trends, the depressed and angry one [punk] Today, as Robo-Pop is on the rise, angry rock bands and another that relentlessly pursued a sunny, singin’- such as Seether, The Used and Avenged Sevenfold in-the-rain outlook [disco]. Fans of each genre hated are gaining popularity. Fringe music such as dubstep the other with a passion.12 (featuring electronic layers of aggressive, bass-heavy sound)13 is also climbing, just as The Socionomist Where Will Robo-Pop Go From Here? contributors Matt Lampert and Euan Wilson predicted Just as social mood produced both a large-degree two years ago: bear market and disco between 1966 and 1982, it is [When] social mood turns negative, lyrical themes producing a big bear market and the Auto-Tune craze will become dark and melody will diminish. …the today. There are multiple parallels in both the markets vibrant underground community of noise artists and the music. Both eras were preceded by long bull will have their best chance to break into the main- markets. Both bear markets sport sharp declines and ral- stream.14 lies. Both periods have some measures of stock values

6 The Socionomist—November 2011

Recent singles across the charts, including Korn’s “Get Socionomists have observed that large-degree Up,” Britney Spears’ “Hold it Against Me” and Kanye market turns tend to signal seismic shifts in popular West/Jay-Z’s “Ni***s in Paris,” all incorporate dubstep music. Compare, for example, two iconic Beatles’ elements. Drake’s new single, “Marvin’s Room,” and singles that the band released on either side of a major another track from Kanye West & Jay-Z, “New Day,” mood peak: the bubble-gum hit “I Want to Hold Your distort melody and darken the sound—ironically by Hand” (1963) and “Helter Skelter” (1968), which Paul employing Auto-Tune to produce a very non-Robo-Pop McCartney called the “Loudest, nastiest, sweatiest rock experience. This is another example of negative-mood number” the band could perform15 (For an in-depth polarization. report on music, see “Popular Culture and the Stock As with disco in the 1966–1982 period, we expect Market,” 1985.) Popular music will undergo changes Robo-Pop to peak in popularity and experience its most in style until the current market trend bottoms. Hatred violent backlash when the current social mood decline for Robo-Pop should snowball, too, as the bear market is further along (see Figure 4). progresses. Before social mood turns positive again, expect to see massive popular opposition to Auto-Tune What’s Next for Top 40? and a purging of the tracks from many people’s digital Although there are rumblings about pitch correc- music collections. tion’s overuse, it’s a bit early for bonfires. Objections to Auto-Tune thus far have been limited to a small number of artists and music aficionados.

CITATIONS 1Too much auto-tune. Virgin Media, Retrieved from http:// 8X Factor 2010: Outraged viewers take to Twitter to www.virginmedia.com/music/features/too-much- complain ‘auto-tune’ technology was used on first autotune.php? episode. The Daily Mail, Retrieved from http://www. 2Frere-Jones, S. (2008, June 9). The gerbil’s revenge. The dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-1305115/X-Factor- New Yorker, Retrieved from http://www.newyorker. 2010-Outraged-viewers-Twitter-complain-auto-tune- com/arts/critics/musical/2008/06/09/080609crmu_ technology-used-episode.html. music_frerejones?currentPage=all. 9A call to stop vocal pitch correction abuse in the Fox TV 3Recording Cher’s ‘Believe’ (1999, February). Sound on series ‘Glee’. PetitionOnline.com, Retrieved from Sound, Retrieved from http://www.soundonsound.com/ http://www.petitiononline.com/glpitch/. sos/feb99/articles/tracks661.htm. 10Disco (2007, May 8). The Origin Of, Retrieved from 4Gallo, D.J. (2011, February 7). NFL hangover: Super http://www.theoriginof.com/disco.html. Bowl winners. ESPN, Retrieved from http://sports. 11Disco demolition night: A midsummer nightmare. espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=gallo/110207&s SteveMandich.com, Retrieved from http://www. portCat=nfl. stevemandich.com/otherstuff/disco.htm. 5Richards, C. (2011, February 1). Beyonce, Swift score 12Prechter, R. (1999). The Wave Principle of Human Social big at the Grammys. The Washington Post, Retrieved Behavior (p. 248). Gainesville, Georgia: New Classics from http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/ Library. article/2010/01/31/AR2010013100757.html. 13Gaerig, A. (2011, September 12). Dubstep 101: A U.S. 6Ryan, M. (2003, April 27). What, no pitch correction? primer. Spin, Retrieved from http://www.spin.com/ Raising a flag on vocal effects. Chicago Tribune, articles/dubstep-101-us-primer. Retrieved from http://msl1.mit.edu/furdlog/docs/2003- 14Lampert, M., & Wilson, E. (2009, October). Melody 04-28_chitrib_pitch_correction.pdf. and mood: An update on the socionomics of popular 7Freeman, M. (2009, February 2). A brief history of auto- music. The Socionomist. tune. State, Retrieved from http://www.state.ie/6599- 15Helter Skelter. Songfacts, retrieved from http://www. features/a-brief-history-of-auto-tune. songfacts.com/detail.php?id=169.

7 The Socionomist—November 2011 Does Social Mood Influence Accusations of Presidential Ineligibility? By Euan Wilson The socionomic model has often noted the dramatic the Republican presidential candidate during the same effect social mood has on the public’s attitude toward election: John McCain was born in the Panama Canal sitting leaders. For example, the November 1999 Elliott Zone when his father served there as a Navy officer. Wave Theorist featured a short story on elections in a The public always looks for justification to support its report titled “Socionomics in a Nutshell.” It showed that feelings; during extreme mood phases, voters embrace rising social mood tends to lead to presidential reelec- increasingly farfetched rationales. Barack Obama’s presi- dency has so far endured two major social mood phases: the strong bear phase that he inherited and a powerful bull phase (see Figure 1). The “Birther” charges dogged him during his candidacy and early presidency, as stocks plunged. But during the sub- sequent two-year rally, those same charges faded—and then melted away. It turns out that Obama is not the first sitting president to face charges of ineligibility. James Fallows of The Atlantic noted that such an expression has happened once before: Figure 1 to President Hoover, another big-bear-market president tions while falling social mood leads to oustings. Robert (see Figure 2). In 1931, John Hamill released his book, Prechter, Peter Kendall and others have proposed other The Strange Career of Mr. Hoover Under Two Flags. aspects of the mood/election relationship, such as the Among other accusations, Hamill asserted that Hoover observation that rising mood favors traditional candidates while falling mood tends to smile upon perceived agents of change. The charges that Obama was born outside the United States and there- fore is ineligible to hold the presidency fit right in. The Atlas Source: U.S. Elections In 1928, Hoover (blue) swept into office on 84% of the electoral same charge was leveled at What a Difference Four Years Makes: vote; in 1932, his 89% electoral drubbing by FDR sent him packing. We regularly release new socionomic reports. If you would like us to email you whenever we release a resource, you may request notification here:www.socionomics.net/1111-email-update

8 The Socionomist—November 2011

had given up his U.S. citizenship as early as 1900 in order to gain an edge in an overseas business deal. Hoover’s eligibility ques- tion did not get legs, despite the continued plunge in social mood. But mood did do a num- ber on Hoover’s reelection bid (and legacy). First, he was the people’s overwhelming choice for president: He entered the office with a 58% landslide victory in the popular vote as the Roaring Twenties came to a head. Then he was tossed from office just four years later in a near-mirror-image Figure 2 landslide defeat of 57%. The reason for this emphatic Having dodged the Birther charges, presumably for dismissal? Social mood had plunged, as displayed by good, the question now is how President Obama will the Dow, which had shed 89% of its value. fare from here. What are his chances for reelection? The direction of social mood, as reflected by the stock market, will set the odds. Despite Isolation, Amish Succumb to Polarization Impulse Social Mood Knows No Boundaries

By Andrea Dibben

In The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior, a conflict involving them, it would erupt between the Prechter observed that falling mood leads to a “divided, Amish and others. But what actually happened recently radical climate...to social expressions of resistance, is instructive. recrimination and intolerance [and] powerful funda- Internal strife has pushed the Amish into the spot- mentalist religions and cults.”1 From the pension reform light. Some Amish have used clippers and scissors to strikes in France to the fiery street fights in Greece to attack other Amish, specifically by cutting their hair the Occupy Wall Street movement in the US, it’s easy and beards, key symbols of their religious beliefs. One to see numerous manifestations of this phenomenon. victim told the FBI that he “would prefer to have been With the advanced technological means available today, beaten black and blue than to suffer the disfigurement around the clock news, instantaneous messaging and and humiliation of having his hair removed.”2 communications, it’s also easy to see how social mood The current Amish-on-Amish violence is a sharp can spread like wildfire around the globe. Apparently departure from their accepted codes of conduct. The it can reach even isolated communities. Amish people have chosen a simple lifestyle that ac- The Amish community is so different from the rest cepts a limited number of technological advances. Their of society that one might think that if there were ever commitment to a radically simple faith is incompatible

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9 The Socionomist—November 2011

with most modern conveniences and has led them to a voices and half low, that difference would be enough lifestyle of separatism. Some of their more strident sects for them to rationalize starting a war. eschew even such basic amenities as electricity. Further, violence within the Amish community is exceptionally Update: On November 23, the FBI arrested seven rare. They usually are conscientious objectors to military members of the alleged beard-cutting group on federal service. According to Betsy Arthur, who has written hate-crime charges. about Amish schisms, “even verbal confrontation is often nonexistent.”3 The aggressive Amish group from the area of cITATIOnS Bergholz, Ohio that allegedly perpetrated the beard- 1Prechter, R. (1999). The Wave Principle of Human Social and-hair-cutting attacks is “bitterly estranged from Behavior (pp. 229 and 233). Gainesville, Georgia: mainstream Amish communities and had had several New Classics Library. 2Eckholm, E. (2011, November 23). 7 in renegade confrontations with the Jefferson County sheriff.” They Amish group charged with assaults. The New not only resort to violence, but according to some ac- York Times, Retrieved from http://www.nytimes. counts, seek to exact revenge.4 Finally, some in the com/2011/11/24/us/7-arrested-in-hair-cutting-attacks- Amish community are now speaking on camera about on-amish-in-ohio.html?_r=1&sq=”black and blue” the attacks and the accused, which is also surprising &st=cse&adxnnl=1&scp=2&adxnnlx=1322501455- 5 S0skq5I78271tC45fr2Mhw. given the Amish’s usual reticence for publicity. 3Arthur, Betsy. Schisms defining the old order Amish. Socionomists have long postulated that trends to- Retrieved from http://web.missouri.edu/~hartmanj/ ward negative social mood induce conflicts both between rs150/papers/arth.html. 4 groups and within groups. The disharmony among the Eckholm, E. (2011, October 17). Amish renegades are Amish is an extreme example of how conflict can arise accused in bizarre attacks on their peers. The New York Times, Retrieved from http://www.nytimes. even within apparently homogenous groups. This very com/2011/10/18/us/hair-cutting-attacks-stir-fear-in- development is especially supportive of socionomics. amish-ohio.html?_r=1. What besides feelings could possibly generate rifts 5What do the Amish think about photography? Amish among people who share so much in common? If social America, Retrieved from http://amishamerica.com/ mood became negative enough, we suspect that even in what-do-amish-think-about-photography/. a population of genetic replicas, if half of them had high

The Socionomist is a monthly publication of the Socionomics Institute designed to help readers understand and prepare for major changes in social mood. We regularly release new socionomic reports. If you would like us to email you whenever we release a resource, you may request notification here: www.socionomics.net/1111-email-update

The Socionomist helps readers understand socionomics and prepare for major changes in social mood. We also present the latest essays in the field of socionomics; we anticipate that many of the hypotheses will be subjected to scientific testing in future scholarly studies. The Socionomist is published by the Socionomics Institute, Robert R. Prechter, Jr., president. Alan Hall, Ben Hall, Matt Lampert and Euan Wilson contribute to The Socionomist. Chuck Thompson, editor. Mark Almand, executive editor. We are always interested in guest submissions. Please email manuscripts and proposals to Chuck Thompson via [email protected]. Mailing address: P.O. Box 1618, Gainesville, Georgia, 30503, U.S.A. Phone: 770-536-0309. All contents copyright © 2011 Socionomics Institute. All rights reserved. Feel free to quote, cite or review, giving full credit. Typos and other such errors may be corrected after initial posting. For subscription matters, contact customer Service: Call 770-536-0309 (internationally) or 800-336-1618 (within the U.S.). Or email [email protected]. For our latest offerings: Visit our website, www.socionomics.net, listing BOOKS, DVDs and more. Correspondence is welcome, but volume of mail often precludes a reply. Whether it is a general inquiry, socionomics commentary or a research idea, you can email us at [email protected]. Most economists, historians and sociologists presume that events determine society’s mood. But socionomics hypothesizes the opposite: that social mood determines the character of social events. The events of history—such as investment booms and busts, political events, macroeconomic trends and even peace and war—are the products of a naturally occurring pattern of social-mood fluctuation. Such events, therefore, are not randomly distributed, as is commonly believed, but are in fact probabilistically predictable. Socionomics also posits that the stock market is the best available meter of a society’s aggregate mood, that news is irrelevant to social mood, and that financial and economic decision-making are fundamentally different in that financial decisions are motivated by the herding impulse while economic choices are guided by supply and demand. For more information about socionomic theory, see (1) the text, The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior © 2011, by Robert Prechter; (2) the introductory documentary History’s Hidden Engine; (3) the video Toward a New Science of Social Prediction, Prechter’s 2004 speech before the London School of Economics in which he presents evidence to support his socionomic hypothesis; and (4) the Socionomics Institute’s website, www.socionomics.net. At no time will the Socionomics Institute make specific recommendations about a course of action for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.