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Conference Proceedings th ANNUAL HYMAN P. MINSKY CONFERENCE ON THE STATE OF THE U. S . AND WORLD ECONOMIES 18Meeting the Challenges of Financial Crisis April 16–17, 2009, New York City A conference organized by The Levy Economics Institute of Bard College with support from the Contents FOREWORD 1 PROGRAM 2 WELCOME AND INTRODUCTION Maya Harris 5 Dimitri B. Papadimitriou 6 SPEAKERS Bruce Kasman 10 Dennis P. Lockhart 21 James Grant 31 Janet L. Yellen 39 Robert J. Barbera 49 Norbert Walter 56 Henry Kaufman 64 Joseph E. Stiglitz 71 SESSIONS 1. Assessment of Fed/Treasury Response to Crisis 81 2. Proposals on Alternative Financial Regulation 86 3. Levy Institute–Ford Project Proposals on Reregulation of the Financial System 92 4. The Institutional Shape of the Future Financial System 98 5. Current Conditions and Forecasts 102 6. Alternative Stimulus and Bailout Proposals 106 PARTICIPANTS 114 The proceedings consist of submitted papers by the speakers and transcripts of the speakers’ remarks, and summaries of session participants’ presentations. Foreword I am delighted to welcome you to the 18th annual Hyman P. Minsky conference on “Meeting the Challenges of Financial Crisis,” organized by The Levy Economics Institute of Bard College with sup- port from the Ford Foundation. This year’s conference focuses on current conditions and forecasts; macro policy proposals by the Obama administration and others; the rehabilitation of mortgage financing and the banks; financial market reregulation; proposals to limit foreclosures and modify servicing agreements; regulation of alternative financial products (derivatives and credit default swaps); the institutional shape of the future financial system; and international responses to the crisis. The presenters are top policymakers, economists, and analysts. They will offer their insights and policy guidelines on the challenges currently facing the U.S. and global economies. I trust you will enjoy their presentations and the discussions that follow. As always, your comments and suggestions are welcome. I look forward to seeing you again at future Levy Institute events. Dimitri B. Papadimitriou President, The Levy Economics Institute, and Jerome Levy Professor of Economics, Bard College 1 18th Annual Hyman P. Minsky Conference on the State of the U.S. and World Economies Program Thursday, April 16 9:00-9:30 a.m. WELCOME AND INTRODUCTION Maya Harris, Peace and Social Justice Program, Ford Foundation Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, The Levy Economics Institute 9:30-10:30 a.m. SPEAKER Bruce Kasman, JPMorgan Chase & Co. “Unpleasant Arithmetic” 10:30 a.m.–12:15 p.m. SESSION 1 Assessment of Fed/Treasury Response to Crisis Moderator: Greg Hannsgen, The Levy Economics Institute William Kurt Black, University of Missouri–Kansas City Marshall Auerback, RAB Capital PLC “Return of the State” Jane D’Arista, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts Amherst “Setting the Agenda for Financial Reform” Thomas Ferguson, University of Massachusetts Boston “Fatal Reversal: From Single Payer to Free Markets and Back Again” 12:15-2:30 p.m. SPEAKER Dennis P. Lockhart, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 2:30-3:15 p.m. SPEAKER James Grant, Grant’s Interest Rate Observer “Always the Same, Always Different” 3:15-5:00 p.m. SESSION 2 Proposals On Alternative Financial Regulation Moderator: Jane D’Arista, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts Amherst Alan S. Blinder, Princeton University “It’s a Long Regulatory Agenda” Christine M. Cumming, Federal Reserve Bank of New York “Thoughts about the Supervisory System Going Forward” Michael Greenberger, The University of Maryland School of Law “Will We Have Meaningful Reform or Simply the Appearance of Reform?” Martin Mayer, The Brookings Institution “Narrow Banking v. Toxic Instruments” 2 The Levy Economics Institute of Bard College 5:15-6:30 p.m. SESSION 3 Levy Institute–Ford Project Proposals on Reregulation of the Financial System Moderator: Greg Hannsgen, The Levy Economics Institute Jan Kregel, The Levy Economics Institute “Minsky and the Regulation of the Financial System” C. P. Chandrasekhar, Jawaharlal Nehru University “Structural Contagion: Some Implications of the International Transmission of Financial Fragility” Mario Tonveronachi, University of Siena “Reregulating the Financial System” Éric Tymoigne, The Levy Economics Institute “Financial Regulation and the Financial Instability Hypothesis: A Ponzi-finance Approach to Financial Reform” 6:30-7:30 p.m. RECEPTION 7:30 p.m. SPEAKER Janet L. Yellen, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco “A Minsky Meltdown: Lessons for Central Bankers?” Friday, April 17 9:00-9:45 a.m. SPEAKER Robert J. Barbera, ITG “Minsky, U.S. Policy, and the Global Economy” 9:45–10:30 a.m. SPEAKER Norbert Walter, Deutsche Bank “Financial Crisis — A Threat to European Economies” 10:45 a.m.-12:00 p.m. SESSION 4 The Institutional Shape of the Future Financial System Moderator: Jan Kregel, The Levy Economics Institute Richard Bookstaber, Author and financial economist “Four Tasks for the Market Stability Regulator” Alex J. Pollock, American Enterprise Institute “Does Changing Boxes on the Regulatory Organization Chart Alter Minsky’s Fragility?” Walker F. Todd, American Institute for Economic Research “Stress Testing the Banks and Stabilizing Household Budgets” 3 18th Annual Hyman P. Minsky Conference on the State of the U.S. and World Economies 12:00-1:15 p.m. SESSION 5 Current Conditions And Forecasts Moderator: Ajit Zacharias, The Levy Economics Institute Dean Maki, Barclays Capital “U.S. Economic Outlook” James W. Paulsen, Wells Capital Management “Economic and Financial Market Outlook” Lakshman Achuthan, Economic Cycle Research Institute “What Happens at Growth Rate Cycle Upturns?” 1:15-3:15 p.m. SPEAKER Henry Kaufman, Henry Kaufman & Company, Inc. “Who Is Primarily Responsible for the Credit Crisis?” 3:15-4:00 p.m. SPEAKER Joseph E. Stiglitz, Columbia University 4:00–6:00 p.m. SESSION 6 Alternative Stimulus and Bailout Proposals Moderator: Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, The Levy Economics Institute James K. Galbraith, The Levy Economics Institute “No Return to Normal” Warren Mosler, Valance Company, Inc. “Alternative Proposals for a U.S. Nonconvertible Currency Regime” Robert W. Parenteau, The Levy Economics Institute “Riding the Debt Deflation Guardrails” L. Randall Wray, The Levy Economics Institute “The Return of Big Government: A Minskyan New Deal” 4 The Levy Economics Institute of Bard College Welcome and Introduction MAYA HARRIS Vice President, Peace and Social Justice, Ford Foundation DIMITRI B. PAPADIMITRIOU President, The Levy Economics Institute MAYA HARRIS: Good morning. It is my great pleasure to be able to welcome you here today. Our foun- dation president, Luis Ubiñas, wanted to be here to welcome you himself, but he is currently in California on a site visit with some of our trustees. I’m actually very glad that I could be here, because this is an enormously impressive and timely gathering, and it’s one that we at the Ford Foundation are very proud to be able to support. It has always been a very important part of the Ford Foundation’s mission to bring new thinking and innovative approaches to bear on tackling some of our most pressing challenges, issues, and concerns. I think we all can agree that there are few issues more urgent than those presented by our current finan- cial crisis. We are deeply interested in those issues here at Ford—in global financial governance, in sta- bility and, particularly, how it impacts poverty reduction and social justice in the United States and around the world. It’s a very important part of our work under the terrific leadership of our program officer, Leonardo Burlamaqui, whom I think many of you know. So, for us, participation in this conference is a wonderful opportunity to learn from all of you, from the thought leaders and experts and academics and decision makers who are here. It’s also quite an opportunity for all of us, because a crisis of this magni- tude presents that rare chance to truly redefine the debate and the agenda on global financial governance. A convening of this caliber promises us the exact kind of bold thinking that we need to have as part of that debate—on policy, on regulation, and on reform. So we at Ford are very eager to hear your discus- sions over the course of the conference. We hope that, for you, those discussions are fruitful and pro- ductive, and that you enjoy your time here with us. 5 18th Annual Hyman P. Minsky Conference on the State of the U.S. and World Economies With that, I would like to invite the president of The Levy Economics Institute, Dimitri Papadimitriou, to the podium to begin the conference. Thank you. DIMITRI B. PAPADIMITRIOU: Thank you very, very much. I want to welcome you all to the 18th Annual Hyman P. Minsky Conference, which has been organized by The Levy Economics Institute. I want to express our sincere thanks to the Ford Foundation, not only for its financial support, but also for being the host of the conference. We have an excellent roster of speakers, representing the academy as well as the banking sector, the financial sector, and, above all, the Federal Reserve. I hope you will enjoy the conference…. The instability of the financial system was at the core of Hy Minsky’s work. Minsky argued that a capi- talist system’s dynamics have an inherent tendency to foster fragility. Stability encourages risky behavior. Risky behavior ultimately develops into a crisis. As he very precisely put it: stability is destabilizing. In a prescient article written in 1987, Minsky predicted the explosion of home mortgage securitiza- tion that eventually led to the subprime meltdown in 2007. He was one of the few economists who under- stood the power of securitization. Two decades later, his predictions were validated: the “Minsky moment” had arrived. Minsky’s solution to sharp downturns in financial crises was for a “big government” to main- tain income and profit flow and a “big bank,”with its lender-of-last-resort operations, to inject liquidity into the financial system.
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