Spatially Explicit Integrated Model of Pollock &
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1 NORTH PACIFIC RESEARCH BOARD 2 3 BERING SEA INTEGRATED ECOSYSTEM RESEARCH PROGRAM 4 5 6 FINAL REPORT 7 8 9 10 Spatial Economic Models of Pollock and Cod 11 12 13 NPRB BSIERP Project B72 Final Report 14 15 16 17 18 Alan C. Haynie1, Lisa Pfeiffer2, and Jordan T. Watson3 19 20 21 22 1 National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries 23 Service, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Resource Ecology and Fisheries Management Div., 7600 Sand 24 Point Way NE, Seattle, WA 98115. (206) 526-4253, [email protected]. 25 26 2 National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries 27 Service, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, 226 South Bldg., 2725 Montlake Blvd. East, Seattle, WA 28 98112-2097, [email protected]. 29 30 3 Pacific States Marine Fisheries Commission, 205 SE Spokane, Portland, OR 97202 and University of 31 Alaska Fairbanks, School of Fisheries & Ocean Sciences, 17109 Pt. Lena Loop Rd., Juneau, AK 98101, 32 [email protected]. 33 34 35 36 Abstract 37 38 This project focused on modeling the economic behavior of the Bering Sea pollock and Pacific cod 39 fisheries. These fisheries have several sectors, but here the majority of attention was given to the 40 vessels that are most mobile and reliant on the pollock and Pacific cod resources, namely the catcher 41 processor fisheries. By integrating economic, fishing, vessel characteristic, and environmental data, we 42 were able to examine how vessels have adjusted their spatial behavior across time in light of changing 43 conditions. Several primary conclusions emerge. First, the sea ice and the cold pool have a significant 44 impact on fishing behavior across the Bering Sea. A large cold pool will actually concentrate Pacific 45 cod in the north, so that fishing has been relative better in the north in cold years and fishing costs have 46 been higher in warmer years. Second, vessels have many ways to adapt to different climate (e.g., 47 choosing different locations, longer soak times, more travel), but this is costly. Third, because fish 48 abundance and climate are both impacting fish populations, there is little information to predict how the 49 pollock fishery will react in possible predicted future climate conditions with low abundance and a 50 small cold pool. Finally, changing institutions are affecting fishing behavior in new ways, so the 51 relationship between climate and fishing behavior is impacted by the transition of different fisheries to 52 catch shares. This allows greater flexibility within the fisheries, but minimal flexibility to alter species 53 targets for many vessels that currently target pollock and Pacific cod. 54 55 56 Key Words 57 Bering Sea, North Pacific, fisheries, CPUE, climate change, fleet behavior, North Pacific, range shifts, 58 modeling 59 60 Citation 61 Haynie, A.C., L. Pfeiffer, and J. Watson. 2014. “Spatial Economic Models of Pollock and Cod.” NPRB 62 BSIERP Project B72 Final Report, 128 pp. Page 2 of 127 63 Contents 64 65 Study Chronology ......................................................................................................................................... 4 66 Introduction to the B72 Project ..................................................................................................................... 5 67 Overall Objectives ........................................................................................................................................ 8 68 Chapter 1: Why economics matters for understanding the effects of climate change on fisheries ............. 12 69 Chapter 2: Climatic and economic drivers of the Bering Sea walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) 70 fishery: implications for the future.............................................................................................................. 21 71 Chapter 3: The effect of decreasing seasonal sea-ice cover on the winter Bering Sea pollock fishery ...... 35 72 Chapter 4: Climate fluctuations and fishing behavior in the Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) longline 73 fishery ......................................................................................................................................................... 48 74 Chapter 5: The effects of catch share management on rent generation through targeting and production 75 choices in the Pacific cod longline catcher processor fishery ..................................................................... 77 76 BSIERP B72 Project Conclusions ............................................................................................................ 100 77 PI Meetings and Other scientific interactions ....................................................................................... 102 78 Past, current, and future collaborations ................................................................................................. 103 79 Working with other modelers ............................................................................................................... 104 80 Interaction/connection with the LTK (local and traditional knowledge) component of BSIERP ........ 105 81 Next Steps ............................................................................................................................................. 105 82 Management and policy implications ....................................................................................................... 107 83 Publications ............................................................................................................................................... 108 84 BSIERP oral and poster presentations at scientific conferences or seminars ........................................... 109 85 Oral Presentations ................................................................................................................................. 109 86 Poster Presentations .............................................................................................................................. 111 87 Outreach / Workshops ........................................................................................................................... 111 88 Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................................... 113 89 Literature cited .......................................................................................................................................... 114 90 Appendix 1: Working paper: Utilizing VMS data to estimate unobserved Pacific cod fishing effort in the 91 Bering Sea ................................................................................................................................................. 115 92 Appendix 2: Headline document............................................................................................................... 126 93 Page 3 of 127 94 Study Chronology 95 96 This project was first approved in 2007 as BSIERP project M49, “Spatial fishery choices.” In 2008, 97 the project was re-designated B72, “Spatially explicit integrated economic model of pollock and cod.” 98 The name of the project later evolved to “Spatial Economic Models of Pollock and Cod.” The B72 99 project was initially placed into two MOU agreements, with the first agreement ending in 2009 and 100 years 3-5 budgeted to run from 12/1/2009 until 9/30/2013. An MOU was signed in 2013 which 101 provided a no-cost extension to run through July 31, 2014. 102 103 We attempted to hire a post-doc in 2008, but did not locate a suitable candidate in our first hiring 104 effort. We hired Dr. Lisa Pfeiffer in summer 2009 and Lisa worked full-time on the BSIERP project 105 from August 31, 2009 – December 2012. During the project, NOAA Fisheries AFSC obtained 106 additional resources from NOAA Fisheries Headquarters to extend the duration of her project work, 107 which allowed for an extension of Dr. Pfeiffer’s work at AFSC beyond 3 years. Dr. Pfeiffer was hired 108 at NOAA Fisheries Northwest Fisheries Science Center in December 2012, which freed additional 109 project resources that had been allocated for Dr. Pfeiffer’s salary and enabled the current extension of 110 the project. Dr. Pfeiffer has been able to work with Dr. Haynie on project manuscripts since then on a 111 limited basis. Page 4 of 127 112 Introduction to the B72 Project 113 114 Project B72, “Spatial economic models of pollock and cod,” had a hybrid role of being a parallel or 115 competing model that was built outside of the integrated FEAST model but which potentially could also 116 interact with FEAST. The slower pace of development of FEAST was such that it became clear in the 117 middle of the project that any integration would have to occur in the future and the current project has 118 focused on examining the direct means through which climate affects the Bering Sea pollock and Pacific 119 cod fisheries. The primary goal was thus to have stand-alone models of fleet dynamics that would 120 explore how the pollock and Pacific cod fleets responded to changing environmental conditions on the 121 fishing grounds. This is illuminating because it enables a careful exploration of many interactions of 122 effects that impact fishing behavior. 123 124 As was recognized with the inclusion of social science components in BSIERP, it is impossible to 125 understand an ecosystem without including the role of humans in the system. In the Bering Sea, the two 126 largest fisheries are the pollock and