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Freight, Logistics and Gateway Review

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Freight, Logistics and Gateway Review Report prepared to support the development of the Transport Strategy for the South East Freight, logistics and gateway review tfse.org.uk/transport-strategy Transport for South East LOGISTICS AND GATEWAY REVIEW JULY 2019 CONFIDENTIAL Transport for South East LOGISTICS AND GATEWAY REVIEW TYPE OF DOCUMENT (VERSION) CONFIDENTIAL PROJECT NO. 70050793 DATE: JULY 2019 WSP WSP House 70 Chancery Lane London WC2A 1AF Phone: +44 20 7314 5000 Fax: +44 20 7314 5111 WSP.com LOGISTICS AND GATEWAY REVIEW CONFIDENTIAL | WSP Project No.: 70050793 July 2019 Transport for South East QUALITY CONTROL Issue/revision First issue Revision 1 Revision 2 Revision 3 Remarks Draft Feedback incorporated Date 10/06/2019 08/07/2019 Prepared by Ian Brooker / Ian Brooker/Morag Morag White White Signature Ian Brooker Ian Brooker Checked by Adrian Hames / Adrian Hames Ian Baker Signature Authorised by Adrian Hames Adrian Hames Signature Project number 70050793 70050793 Report number File reference LOGISTICS AND GATEWAY REVIEW CONFIDENTIAL | WSP Project No.: 70050793 July 2019 Transport for South East CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 AIMS OF THE STUDY 1 1.2 TRANSPORT FOR THE SOUTH EAST 1 1.3 BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE OF THE COMMISSION 3 1.4 STRUCTURE OF THIS REPORT 4 1.5 METHODOLOGY 4 2 NATURE AND STRUCTURE OF FREIGHT AND LOGISTICS 6 2.2 LOGISTICS 6 2.3 SIZE OF THE INDUSTRY 7 2.4 ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE OF LOGISTICS IN TFSE 8 2.5 ROLE OF MODES 10 2.6 KEY LOGISTICS TRENDS 11 2.7 IMPACTS OF LOGISTICS 12 3 POLICY REVIEW 15 3.2 NATIONAL POLICY 15 3.3 NATIONAL IMPORTANCE OF INTERNATIONAL GATEWAYS 27 3.4 LOCAL POLICY 29 3.5 PLANNED INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT 38 3.6 CONCLUSIONS FROM LOCAL POLICY 39 4 LOGISTICS IN TFSE 40 4.1 FREIGHT GENERATORS AND HUBS 40 4.2 DISTRIBUTION CENTRES AND HUBS 41 4.3 OTHER INDUSTRIES 44 4.4 ROAD FREIGHT 46 4.5 RAIL FREIGHT 53 4.6 CONCLUSIONS ON FREIGHT MOVEMENTS 56 5 KEY GATEWAY PROFILES 58 5.1 OVERVIEW 58 5.2 PORT INTRODUCTIONS 59 5.3 AVIATION 61 5.4 RAIL GATEWAYS 63 5.5 TFSE PORTS RANKINGS 63 5.6 TFSE AIRPORTS RANKINGS 65 5.7 GATEWAY DASHBOARDS 66 5.8 KEY ISSUES AND OPPORTUNITIES 91 LOGISTICS AND GATEWAY REVIEW CONFIDENTIAL | WSP Project No.: 70050793 July 2019 Transport for South East 5.9 OPPORTUNITIES 92 6 LOGISTICS AND LONDON 94 6.1 FREIGHT TO LONDON 94 6.2 IMPACT OF LONDON FREIGHT POLICIES 94 7 CORRIDORS AND ACCESS TO INTERNATIONAL GATEWAYS 97 7.1 WHAT ARE THE STRATEGIC FREIGHT CORRIDORS? 97 7.2 ROAD CORRIDORS 98 7.3 ROAD JOURNEY TIMES TO KEY MARKETS 103 7.4 PROPOSED LOWER THAMES CROSSING 105 7.5 RAIL CORRIDORS 105 7.6 CONCLUSIONS 107 8 STAKEHOLDER VIEWS 108 8.1 AIMS 108 8.2 METHOD 108 8.3 SUMMARY OF VIEWS 109 8.4 CONCLUSIONS 112 9 FUTURE TRENDS AND FORECASTS 113 9.2 ROAD FREIGHT DEMAND FORECASTS 113 9.3 RAIL FREIGHT DEMAND 114 9.4 CHANGES IN LOGISTICS 116 9.5 MEGATRENDS 118 9.6 BARRIERS TO REALISING THE POTENTIAL OF NEW TECHNOLOGY 125 9.7 CONCLUSIONS 126 10 CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES 127 10.1 INTRODUCTION 127 10.2 STRATEGIC 127 10.3 ACCESS TO MARKETS AND GATEWAYS 130 10.4 ROAD ISSUES 132 11 EVIDENCE GAPS 141 12 CONCLUSIONS AND NEXT STEPS 143 LOGISTICS AND GATEWAY REVIEW CONFIDENTIAL | WSP Project No.: 70050793 July 2019 Transport for South East TABLES Table 2-1 – TfSE strategic principles and the importance of freight and logistics 9 Table 3-1 - National policy in relation to freight and logistics 16 Table 3-2 - Evidence of Local Authorities freight policies 30 Table 3-3 - Freight specific transport plans 32 Table 3-4 - LEP Economic KPIs 34 Table 3-5 - Employment by LEP 36 Table 3-6 - Priority sectors by LEP 37 Table 4-1 – Warehouse sectors (UKWA, 2016) 43 Table 4-2 – Freight patterns 47 Table 4-3 – Rail freight patterns 55 Table 5-1 - UK total port sector - % total volume change from 2000 to 2017 59 Table 5-2 - TfSE Port Total as percentage of UK Total 2017 (DfT, 2017) 64 Table 5-3 - TfSE Port’s Total Cargo Throughput 2017 (DfT, 2017) 64 Table 5-4 - In breakdown down of TfSE ports by commodity 2017 DfT, 2017 65 Table 5-5 - Breakdown and ranking of TfSE airports by passenger and freight 2017 65 Table 5-6 – Results of international gateway assessment 68 Table 6-1 – TfL freight actions and their impacts on TfSE 95 Table 7-1 - Strategic corridors 97 Table 7-2 – Key freight corridors 98 Table 8-1 - Companies interviewed 109 Table 9-1 - HGV% increase from 2015 113 Table 9-2 - LGV% increase from 2015 114 Table 9-3 - Rail freight tonnes forecast (Network Rail) 115 Table 9-4 - Demographic megatrends 119 Table 9-5 - Social megatrends 120 Table 9-6 - Environmental megatrends 121 Table 9-7 - Economic megatrends 122 Table 9-8 - Political megatrends 123 Table 10-1 – Gateway challenges and opportunities 131 Table 10-2 - Lorry parking in the South East with critical utilisation (AECOM, 2018) 132 Table 10-3 - HGV incidents 137 Table 11-1 – Evidence gaps 141 LOGISTICS AND GATEWAY REVIEW CONFIDENTIAL | WSP Project No.: 70050793 July 2019 Transport for South East FIGURES Figure 1-1 – Map of the TfSE area 2 Figure 2-1 – Source emissions on A33 Southampton (ABP, 2018) 13 Figure 3-1 – Planned Employment Space Growth (Steer, 2018) 35 Figure 4-1 -The location of distribution space over 8,000 square metres in England 41 Figure 4-2 - UK Warehousing space 2016 (UKWA, 2016) 43 Figure 4-3 – Selected major distribution centres (WSP) 44 Figure 4-4 - Types and Sources of Aggregates in TfSE in 2014 45 Figure 4-5 - Volumes of goods lifted on UK registered goods vehicles 47 Figure 4-6 – Annual volume of freight in HGVs from TfSE to other areas (2017, CSRGT) 48 Figure 4-7 – Annual volume of freight in HGVs from other areas to TfSE (2017, CSRGT) 48 Figure 4-8 – Number of HGV operators per km2 50 Figure 4-9 – Number of vehicles authorised per km2 51 Figure 4-10 – HGV daily count 52 Figure 4-11 – HGV daily count as a percentage of all traffic 53 Figure 4-12 – TfSE rail terminals by commodity handled 55 Figure 4-13 – Daily freight trains by corridor (2013, Network Rail) 56 Figure 5-1 – Kent Thames ports/wharfs (PLA, 2018) 61 Figure 5-2 - NIC report Freight handled at the UK’s six largest freight airports 62 Figure 5-3 - UK Airport passenger and freight statistics (2017) (Steer, 2017) 62 Figure 5-4 - TfSE Airport total as percentage of UK total 2017 (DfT, 2017) 65 Figure 5-5 – Southampton Port dashboard 69 Figure 5-6 – Dover Port dashboard 70 Figure 5-7 – Medway Ports dashboard 73 Figure 5-8 – Portsmouth Port dashboard 75 Figure 5-9 – Shoreham Port dashboard 77 Figure 5-10 – Newhaven Port dashboard 79 Figure 5-11 – Ramsgate Port dashboard 81 Figure 5-12 – Heathrow Airport dashboard 83 Figure 5-13 – Gatwick Airport dashboard 85 Figure 5-14 – Southampton Airport dashboard 87 Figure 5-15 – Channel Tunnel dashboard 89 Figure 5-16 - TfSE Share of Total UK Volumes (2017) 92 Figure 5-17 - TfSE Share of Total UK Airport Freight Volumes (2017) 93 Figure 5-18 - TfSE Share of Total UK Airport Passenger Volumes (2017) 93 Figure 7-1 – HGV drive times from Southampton 103 Figure 7-2 – HGV drive times from Dover 104 Figure 7-3 – HGV drive times from Brighton 104 Figure 7-4 - Baseline train length position for Southampton to the West Midlands 106 Figure 8-1 - What impact do you think the following trends will have on your business 110 Figure 8-2 - As a business, what are your top three priorities 111 LOGISTICS AND GATEWAY REVIEW CONFIDENTIAL | WSP Project No.: 70050793 July 2019 Transport for South East Figure 8-3 - Three main challenges for your business 112 Figure 9-1 - Agents that will lead transformations in the sector (OCED/ITF, 2018) 116 Figure 9-2 - Likely trends and innovations by 2030 (OCED/ITF, 2018) 123 Figure 9-3 - Supply Chain Start Ups - CB Insights 124 Figure 10-1 – Air Quality Management Areas in TfSE (DEFRA, 2019) 137 APPENDICES Appendix A: Stakeholder themes Appendix B: Full survey results Appendix C: Gateway analysis LOGISTICS AND GATEWAY REVIEW CONFIDENTIAL | WSP Project No.: 70050793 July 2019 Transport for South East 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 AIMS OF THE STUDY 1.1.1. The aim of this study is to provide a consistent view of current and future patterns of freight activity and key cross-cutting issues relating to freight logistics and gateways across the TfSE area and beyond to ensure that these issues are considered the development of the Transport Strategy. It will describe the current pattern of freight activity, analyse the implications of future demand changes, identify how TfSE can capitalise on opportunities and mitigate the risks identified as part of the study. This will allow for TfSE to plan for future freight demands and incorporate this into their Transport Strategy. 1.2 TRANSPORT FOR THE SOUTH EAST 1.2.1. The South East is home to the UK’s busiest international and national transport infrastructure – the busiest airports serving the most destinations, ports served by the major container shipping lines, cross channel ferries and Eurotunnel, the busiest passenger rail network in the country, and some of the busiest motorways, notably the M25, M20, and M3. 1.2.2. The Transport for the South East (TfSE) Economic Connectivity Review (2018) identified that the transport and logistics sector in the South East generates a Gross Value Added (GVA) of over £8 billion per year and acts as an influential driver of the UK economy.
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