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Buchan Water Supply Demand Strategy Buchan Water Supply Demand Strategy AECOM East Gippsland Water 11 May 2010 Buchan Water Supply Demand Strategy Buchan Water Supply Demand Strategy AECOM Buchan Water Supply Demand Strategy 60144336 Task 1.04 Prepared for East Gippsland Water Prepared by AECOM Australia Pty Ltd Level 9, 8 Exhibition Street, Melbourne VIC 3000, Australia T +61 3 9653 1234 F +61 3 9654 7117 www.aecom.com ABN 20 093 846 925 11 May 2010 60144336 © AECOM Australia Pty Ltd 2010 The information contained in this document produced by AECOM Australia Pty Ltd is solely for the use of the Client identified on the cover sheet for the purpose for which it has been prepared and AECOM Australia Pty Ltd undertakes no duty to or accepts any responsibility to any third party who may rely upon this document. All rights reserved. No section or element of this document may be removed from this document, reproduced, electronically stored or transmitted in any form without the written permission of AECOM Australia Pty Ltd. C:\Documents and Settings\habenerm\My Documents\SharePoint Drafts\Draft Buchan WSDS - April 12 2010.doc Revision A - 11 May 2010 Buchan Water Supply Demand Strategy AECOM Quality Information Document Buchan Water Supply Demand Strategy Ref 60144336 Date 11 May 2010 Prepared by M Habener Reviewed by S Wallner / L Dragicevich Revision History Authorised Revision Revision Details Date Name/Position Signature A 12-Apr-2010 Initial Draft A Grant Original Signed Principal Engineer - Water B 11-May- Final Issue A Grant Original Signed 2010 Principal Engineer - Water C:\Documents and Settings\habenerm\My Documents\SharePoint Drafts\Draft Buchan WSDS - April 12 2010.doc Revision A - 11 May 2010 Buchan Water Supply Demand Strategy AECOM Table of Contents Executive Summary i 1.0 Introduction 1 1.1 Regional Setting 1 2.0 Current Water Supplies 3 2.1 Description of Water Supply System 3 2.1.1 Overview 3 2.1.2 Buchan River 3 2.1.3 Diversion 4 2.1.4 Treated Water Storage 4 2.1.5 Treatment 4 2.1.6 Buchan Caves Spring 4 2.1.7 Standpipe 4 2.2 Allocations of Water 4 2.2.1 Bulk Entitlements 4 2.2.2 Licensed Diversions 5 2.2.3 Groundwater Licences 5 2.2.4 Level of Service Objectives 5 2.3 Historical Water Restrictions 6 3.0 Previous Studies, Legislation and Regulation 7 3.1 Previous Long Term Planning Studies 7 3.1.1 Drought Response Plan for Buchan (SKM, 2006) 7 3.1.2 EGW Water Supply Demand Strategy (SKM, 2007) 7 3.2 Regulations and Legislation 7 4.0 Water Demand 10 4.1 Current Demand 10 4.1.1 Previous Demand Estimates 10 4.1.2 Seasonal Pattern of Demand 10 4.1.3 Bulk water meter data and historical diversions 12 4.1.4 Customer Billing Data 13 4.1.5 Commercial and Industrial Water Use 13 4.1.6 Unaccounted Water 13 4.1.7 Summary of Current Demand 14 4.2 Forecast Water Demand 14 4.2.1 Previous Population Projections 14 4.2.2 Recent Census Data 14 4.2.3 Victoria in Future Data 14 4.2.4 Summary of Population Projections 15 5.0 Demand Management and Reduction 16 5.1 Measures to Achieve Demand Reduction Targets 16 5.1.1 Current Demand Reduction Initiatives (SKM, 2007) 16 5.1.2 Future Demand Reduction Initiatives (SKM, 2007) 17 6.0 Water Supply 19 6.1 Future Reliability of Surface Water 19 6.1.1 Impact of Climate Change 19 6.1.2 Step Change 19 6.2 Impact of Bushfires 20 6.2.1 Previous Bushfires 20 6.2.2 Proposed Fuel Reduction 21 6.3 Forestry 21 6.4 Future Streamflow Projections 21 7.0 Reliability of Supply 23 7.1.1 Method Overview 23 7.1.2 Modelling Assumptions 23 7.2 Current Reliability of Supply 24 7.3 Future Reliability of Supply 27 C:\Documents and Settings\habenerm\My Documents\SharePoint Drafts\Draft Buchan WSDS - April 12 2010.doc Revision A - 11 May 2010 Buchan Water Supply Demand Strategy AECOM 7.3.1 Year 2030 27 7.3.2 Year 2060 29 7.3.3 Summary 31 8.0 Management of Water Supply 32 8.1 Water Loss Reduction 32 8.2 Water Carting 32 8.3 Buchan Caves 32 8.4 Groundwater 32 8.5 Recommendations for Managing Supply 33 9.0 Stakeholder Consultation 34 10.0 Conclusions and Recommendations 35 10.1 Conclusions 35 10.2 Summary of Recommendations 35 11.0 References 36 C:\Documents and Settings\habenerm\My Documents\SharePoint Drafts\Draft Buchan WSDS - April 12 2010.doc Revision A - 11 May 2010 Buchan Water Supply Demand Strategy AECOM Executive Summary Water Supply Demand Strategies (WSDS) aim to ensure that an appropriate balance is maintained between urban water supply and demand over the long term planning horizon of 50 years. East Gippsland Water (EGW) finalised their WSDS for all water supply systems during 2007 and is now in the process of reviewing these strategies in light of updated climate change, growth and bushfire information. AECOM Australia Pty Ltd (AECOM) has been engaged by EGW to revise the existing WSDS for the Buchan water supply system. This revised WSDS will replace the strategy set out for Buchan in EGW’s overall WSDS (Section 7). EGW has set level of service (LOS) objectives for water supply reliability. The objectives state that: x Moderate restrictions (Stages 1 & 2) are not desired more frequently on average than 1 year in 10 x More severe restrictions (Stages 3 & 4) are not desired more frequently than 1 year in 15. The LOS objectives have been used as a basis for assessing the adequacy of Buchan’s current water supply system for meeting current and future water demand. Recent studies and observations have shown that the impacts of climate change and bushfires on streamflow availability in the Buchan water supply catchment will be significant. To assess EGW’s ability to meet LOS objectives under these changing conditions REALM modelling was undertaken. This modelling investigated three key scenarios: x 2010 (Current ) - step change climate estimates with current bushfire impact and Victoria In Future (VIF) growth x 2030 - when the impacts of climate change and bushfire are most significant (assumes a step change in climate, full bushfire impact and VIF growth) x 2060 - at the end of the planning horizon (assumes step change in climate change, moderate bushfire impact and VIF growth) The level of service provided under each scenario is shown as follows: Scenario Level of Service Objectives Voluntary Stage 2 Stage 4 Current Situation 1 in 62 years N/A 1 in 62 years 2030 1 in 12 years 1 in 20 years 1 in 31 years 2060 1 in 20 years 1 in 62 years 1 in 62 years It can be seen from the above table that Buchan’s water supply system will continue to be very reliable in terms of EGW’s ability to meet LOS objectives. Daily flow data recorded at Buchan (Gauge 222206A) shows that there has only been one day in the last 62 years where EGW has been unable to extract their full entitlement of 1.05 ML/day. Given that available supply at Buchan should exceed demand over the next 50 years even after considering the impacts of climate change, past bushfires and growth in water demand, further supply enhancement will not be required. The greatest risk to Buchan’s water supply system is deterioration in water quality due to impacts such as bushfire. A number of alternative supply options were assessed to ensure continuity of supply during such emergencies. From this assessment the most suitable alternative was determined to be emergency water carting. C:\Documents and Settings\habenerm\My Documents\SharePoint Drafts\Draft Buchan WSDS - April 12 2010.doc Revision A - 11 May 2010 i Buchan Water Supply Demand Strategy AECOM In conclusion, it is recommended that EGW implement the following action plan: Action Implementation Update Buchan’s Drought Response Plan. This plan Immediate should document the drought response options outlined in Section 8.0. Continue to monitor and strive to reduce losses within Ongoing the water supply system Continue to implement demand reduction strategies to Ongoing assist in achieving EGW”s demand reduction targets (8% reduction in per capita demand by 2020) Continue to monitor the impacts of logging and if long Ongoing term supply diminishes seek a reduction in the area to be logged within the water supply catchment Undertake a water audit for the high water users Longer term C:\Documents and Settings\habenerm\My Documents\SharePoint Drafts\Draft Buchan WSDS - April 12 2010.doc Revision A - 11 May 2010 ii Buchan Water Supply Demand Strategy AECOM 1.0 Introduction Water Supply Demand Strategies (WSDS) aim to ensure that an appropriate balance is maintained between urban water supply and demand, over a long term planning horizon of 50 years. East Gippsland Water (EGW) finalised their WSDS for all water supply systems during 2007 and is in the process of reviewing each of the water supply strategies. The revision of the WSDS will be based upon new information relating to climate change, drought, bushfires, growth and their combined impacts. WSDSs are otherwise required to be reviewed and updated at least every 5 years. Continuing dry conditions have resulted in a significant drop in streamflow across Victoria and East Gippsland has not been exempt from these impacts. CSIRO have determined that climatic conditions are tracking above the previous high climate change scenarios, which suggests that the medium climate change scenario that was recommended by Department of Sustainability and Environment (DSE) during preparations of the earlier WSDSs may over estimate long term yields.
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