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Join Voices for Joint Efforts! Disaster Risk Rapid Assessment Report ASHOT SARGSYAN ARMEN CHILINGARYAN DRR Advisor DRR Project Coordinator UNDP Armenia UNDP Armenia

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Join Voices for Joint Efforts! Disaster Risk Rapid Assessment Report ASHOT SARGSYAN ARMEN CHILINGARYAN DRR Advisor DRR Project Coordinator UNDP Armenia UNDP Armenia Empowered lives. Resilient nations. COMMUNITY OF BERANE Montenegro Join voices for joint efforts! Disaster Risk Rapid Assessment Report ASHOT SARGSYAN ARMEN CHILINGARYAN DRR Advisor DRR Project Coordinator UNDP Armenia UNDP Armenia UNDP ECIS DRR Community of Practice, 4-6 June, 2012, Budva, Montenegro COMMUNITY OF BERANE Montenegro A group of DRR experts from ten countries: Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, Serbia, Croatia, Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, France, Netherlands and Sweden visited community of Berane, one of the most disaster prone communities of Montenegro. The visit was aimed at exploring a local hazard, vulnerability and capacity context as well as providing recommendations on the feasible solutions which might help the community and municipality of Berane in their join efforts towards enhancing the community’s resilience. It is intended that it will also facilitate UNDP further engagement into Local Level Risk Management initiatives in Montenegro. This exercise was conducted within the frames of BCPR organized ECIS DRR Community of Practice held in June 4-6, 2012 in Montenegro. Join voices for joint efforts! ASHOT SARGSYAN ARMEN CHILINGARYAN DRR Advisor DRR Project Coordinator UNDP Armenia UNDP Armenia 2 Join voices for joint efforts! C O N T E N T S 1. COUNTRY CONTEXT 4 2. MAIN NATURAL HAZARDS 6 3. DISASTER MANAGEMENT GOVERNANCE AND INSTITUTIONAL 7 ARRANGEMENTS 4. COMMUNITY OF BERANE – DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT RESULTS 8 . Secondary data 9 . Institutional Chart 10 . Direct Observation 12 . Mapping 14 . Meeting with Local Authorities 16 . Meeting with Riverside Community Members 17 . Seasonal Events 17 . Disaster Risk Assessment Matrix 19 5. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 22 6. ACKNOWLEDGMENT 23 3 Join voices for joint efforts! 1. COUNTRY CONTEXT Geography of Montenegro Montenegro (meaning "Black Mountain") is a country in Southeastern Europe. It has a coast on the Adriatic Sea to the south-west. Internationally, Montenegro borders Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Kosovo[a], and Albania. Montenegro ranges from high peaks along its borders with Serbia and Albania, a segment of the Karst of the western Balkan Peninsula, to a narrow coastal plain that is only one to four miles (6 km) wide. The plain stops abruptly in the north, where Mount Lovćen and Mount Orjen plunge into the inlet of the Bay of Kotor. Montenegro's large Karst region lies generally at elevations of 1,000 metres (3,280 ft) above sea level; some parts, however, rise to 2,000 m (6,560 ft), such as Mount Orjen (1,894 m/6,214 ft), the highest massif among the coastal limestone ranges. The Zeta River valley, at an elevation of 500 m (1,600 ft), is the lowest segment. Owing to the hyper humid climate on their western sides, the Montenegrin mountain ranges were among the most ice-eroded parts of the Balkan Peninsula during the last glacial period. Biodiversity Diversity of geological base, landscape, climate and soil, as well as the very position of Montenegro on the Balkan peninsula and Adriatic sea, created conditions for formation of biological diversity with very 4 Join voices for joint efforts! high values, that puts Montenegro among biological “hot-spots” of European and world’s biodiversity. Number of species per area unit Index in Montenegro is 0.837, which is the highest index recorded in all European countries. Economy The economy of Montenegro is mostly service-based and is in late transition to a market economy. According to the International Monetary Fund, the nominal GDP of Montenegro was $4.114 billion in 2009. The GDP PPP for 2009 was $6.590 billion, or $10,527 per capita. GDP grew at an impressive 10.7% in 2007 and 7.5% in 2008. The country entered a recession in 2008 as a part of the global recession, with GDP contracting by 4%. However, Montenegro remained a target for foreign investment, the only country in the Balkans to increase its amount of direct foreign investment. The significant dependence of the Montenegrin economy on foreign direct investment leaves it susceptible to external shocks and a high export/import trade deficit. According to Eurostat data, the Montenegrin GDP per capita stood at 41% of the EU average in 2010. Aluminum and steel production and agricultural processing make up for most of the industrial output. Tourism is an important contributor to Montenegrin economy. Tourism is considered the backbone of future economic growth, and government expenditures on infrastructure improvements are largely target towards that goal. Administrative divisions Montenegro is divided into twenty-one municipalities(opština). Each municipality can contain multiple cities and towns. 5 Join voices for joint efforts! 2. MAIN NATURAL HAZARDS1 The most prevalent natural hazards in Montenegro are earthquakes, floods, flash floods, extreme meteorological phenomena, avalanches, regional fires and landslides. The analysis of the last five years shows the increasing trend of frequency and intensity of extreme meteorological events in Montenegro. These include unprecedented levels of precipitation and increase of temperature during the winter time, which disables the rain to turn into the snow. Historic data on flooding in Montenegro shows that in the period 1979-1997 there were 5 major flooding events; but in the six years, 2004-2010, floods occurred 6 times. The biggest floods were recorded in the upper flow of the Tara and the Lim rivers in 1963 and 1979, and then at the end of 1999 and in the first half of 2000. The December 2010 floods had unprecedented water levels, extent of flooded areas and damages in 12 out of 21 municipalities in Montenegro. Transport routes, electricity supply and communication lines between the northern region and the rest of the country were obstructed for a certain period of time and 1.5% of the population had to be evacuated. The ‘Post-Disaster Needs Assessment following the November – December 2010 Flood Disaster’ in Montenegro, estimated the total damages and losses at approximately € 44 million, at 1.49% of the 2009 GDP. In January 2012, the country faced a cold freeze, with heavy snowfall blocking access to life line services and communications for many communities in the mountainous areas. The Government had to declare a state of emergency and national and international resources had to be mobilized to provide humanitarian relief to the stranded. Almost all of Montenegro is exposed to frequent seismic events, especially the coastal area, the Zeta- Skadar depression, and the Berane basin. Around 40% of country’s territory is within a zone of anticipated seismic intensity greater or equal to magnitude 8 on the Richter scale. This affects some 60% of the country’s population. A devastating earthquake in April 1979 occurred in the coast and wider area of Skadar Lake, causing damages amounting to $4 billion, affecting 100,418 people, and killing 136 people. There is a high probability of that strong earthquakes would activate large landslides and rockslides. Meteorological hazards include floods and drought. Strong droughts and increased summer temperature were recorded in the period 1981-90, and especially from 2000-10. According to available projections, by 2030 temperature will rise 0.60 to 1.3°C, depending on the season and the area. Owing to changes in precipitation, there will be a sharp increase in variability of river flow, characterized by both flooding and hydrological drought. Coastal flooding and storm surges will significantly increase. Little information is available concerning specific disaster vulnerabilities and capacities. Much data is merged with that of Serbia. Vulnerabilities include deteriorated water infrastructure and unsustainable water management practices, unplanned land use, inappropriate forest and mineral resource exploitation, and outdated building codes. Capacity needs identified2 in various studies include the establishment of a National Platform for disaster risk reduction, developing a country-level GIS database 1 Provided by the UNDP Montenegro 2 UNDP BCPR, Disaster Risk Reduction Capacity Assessment Report for Montenegro, April 2011. 6 Join voices for joint efforts! for spatial planning, preparing a disaster management plan for the country, developing legislation on land-use planning and building codes. Rapid economic development in Montenegro since independence has increased the country’s vulnerability to risk to various disasters. According to data from the Real Estate Directorate there are 39,922 informally constructed structures in Montenegro though as per some unofficial accounts this number exceeds 100,000- with high level of seismic risk and vulnerability to floods. Developmental challenges pertaining to vulnerability of specific groups of population and to regional disparities remain. The Roma, Ashkalia and Egyptian (RAE) population is by far the poorest, most vulnerable and marginalized, with a poverty rate of 36%.3 The low-capacities and lack of preparedness planning are all the more a risk for Montenegro since it is located in South Eastern Europe- a region that is projected to experience the impacts of climate change in a more intense manner than other region. Coupled with its geographic locations, the analysis of the meteorological trends (climate anomalies and extremes are showing up more frequently and presenting more intensely), and forecasts (demonstrated link between Green House Gas emissions and extreme events) all indicate that a more frequent occurrence of extreme events and their more intense presentation will be Montenegro’s reality at least in the short to medium term. This trend is likely to lock the population living in the flood prone areas into intractable process of dealing with flood related damages and losses. Montenegro is facing severe fiscal constraints as a result of the economic crisis and it remains unlikely that public funding will be allocated for training and capacity building for developing preparedness planning. 3. DISASTER MANAGEMENT GOVERNANCE AND INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS The Law on Protection and Rescue (2007) defines the responsibilities, rights and obligation of citizens, legal entities, local self-government, and state administrative bodies pertaining to protection and rescue.
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