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Healthcare Healthcare 22 November 2016 Sector Research Healthcare Healthcare 22 November 2016 Medical duo to be jewels We foresee the biotech and Chinese medicine would be the long- term winners among drug-maker sector. In China, the latter’s end- game directs to the safer concentrated formula granules (CCFG) with bigger hospital usage. On the global front, among the world’s top ten blockbusters, seven of which are biomedicines, whose R&D valuation are usually bigger than the chemical drug ones. As such, we like Shares’ performance of the two stocks China TCM (570.HK) and Genscript Biotech (1548.HK) with BUY 60,000.0 ratings. Of which, our TP for China TCM offers more than 50% upside. 50,000.0 40,000.0 Ageing population with more critical illness 30,000.0 Albeit of government policy on (1) controlling of medicine reimbursement; and (2) 20,000.0 removal of layers of distributors along the medical supply chain, China’s ageing 10,000.0 population with bigger prevalence rate of critical diseases would serve as the 0.0 long-term drivers for drugs and medical consumable sales. Paving the way to Nov13 Nov14 Nov15 Nov16 have medicines with good efficacy and safety usage, we see biomedicines would HSI EqualWeightedIndex be the top choices, coupled with Chinese medicine concentrated formula granule Source: Bloomberg data (CCFG) to assist the treatment as seen in cancer therapy. Biotech drugs: high sales growth story Seven of the world’s top ten blockbusters were biomedicines in 2015, whose (1) drug action are target specificity; and (2) R&D valuation are far more superior than the chemical drug ones. This intensifies the research of new effective medicines for more critical diseases, such as stroke and cancers. So, biomedicine research services provider, like Genscript Biotech (1548.HK, BUY, TP:HKD4.70) would have everlasting sales growth profile on more orders from academia, research institutes and biomedicine producer such as biotechs. Note that, Genscript was ranked #1 in global gene synthesis sales in 2014. Jason Siu PhD SFC CE No.: AVV237 +852 2899 6747 Targets to safer intake of Chinese medicine [email protected] In light of more (1) safer to use CCFG versus the common Chinese injection; (2) western hospitals in China having Chinese medicine department; and (3) substitution of CCFG with traditional decoction pieces (raw Chinese medicine), we see CCFG sales will continue to grow at 22.4% CAGR (FY15F-19F) (2010-14: 40.7%) in China, suggested by PuraPharm (1498.HK, NR). Moreover, China TCM (570.HK, BUY, TP:HKD6.00) is forecast to grow at an EPS CAGR of 25.4% (FY15-18F). We reckon that, China new policy on CCFG would not introduce significant pricing competition between China TCM and other new players, due to the former’s pioneering and quality CCFG products. Figure 1: Sector Valuation Summary Target Price(17 Nov 16) FY16F FY17F FY16F FY17F Price Stock BBG HKD PE(x) PE(x) Yield(%) Yield(%) HKD Upside(%) Rating China TCM 570 HK 3.9 14.6 12.2 2.1 2.5 6.00 52.4 Buy Genscript Biotech 1548 HK 3.8 41.2 33.6 0.0 0.0 4.70 23.3 Buy Source: Company data; Guosen Securities (HK) Research See the last page of this report for important disclosures 1 China / Healthcare Jason Siu PhD, +852 2899 6747, [email protected] T A B L E O F CONTENTS Biotech sector ............................................................................................................................................................................... 5 Chinese medicine sector .............................................................................................................................................................. 18 China TCM (570 HK) ..................................................................................................................................................................... 25 Genscript Biotech (1548 HK) ........................................................................................................................................................ 36 Guosen Securities (HK) 3 China / Healthcare Jason Siu PhD, +852 2899 6747, [email protected] Figure 2 R&D valuation and approval time comparison on different medicine types and usage R&D valuation Higher Biomedicine for critical value diseases (such as monoclonal High-end antibodies) medical implants Chemical drugs incl. Medical generic diagnostic drugs Chinese medicine equipments already subject to scientifically processed, like concentrated granules Commonly Lower -used drugs (incl. generic value drugs) Slower regulatory approval Faster regulatory approval Source: Company data; Guosen Securities (HK) Research Figure 3 Average cost and time required to develop a chemical drug in the US Source: PPD; Drug development process slide show (on-line); and Guosen Securities (HK) Research Guosen Securities (HK) 4 China / Healthcare Jason Siu PhD, +852 2899 6747, [email protected] Biotech sector Biomedicines dominate global top drug sales In 2015, seven out of top ten best-selling drugs were biomedicines, including human insulin and Biomedicine dominate monoclonal antibodies (MABs). Many of the critical disease areas such as cancer cells and global top drug sales immunological responses (arthritis), do have a surface or mechanistic markers. As reviewed by a group of Polish scientists in Int J Nanomedicine, and taking a cancer cell as an example, it usually has a surface marker on the affected cells or the development of a dense but leaky, vascular system within a tumor. This gives the medical scientists and doctors to form the basis of tumour targeting strategy. This is so-called the “magic bullet” approach of drug-targeting, whereby the use of a targeting molecule (or known as a ligand) such as antibodies and their derivatives, peptides or polymer chain, binds specifically to a receptor that is unique to, or over-expressed at the target site (affected areas). MABs, for instance, capture the advantage as tools for biomolecular targeting, with good selectivity to the affected areas or giving desired responses over the normal cells and conditions. Further, humanised MABs can usually be produced using recombinant DNA technology followed by expression in mammalian cell culture. Some good MABs offer direct curable effects, through the biological response within the target tissues. This has intensified the search of better biomedicines such as MABs. Note that, amongst these top ten best-selling dugs in the world, biomedicine sales made up 70% of the total, giving USD58bn sales with chemical drugs delivered USD25bn. Figure 4 World’s top 20 best-selling drugs in 2015/2014 Main Biomedicine monoclonal 2014's sales 2015's sales Drug's generic name components Medical areas Producers or Chemical drugs antibodies (USDm) (USDm) 1 Humira Adalimumab Immunology (Organ Transplant, Arthritis etc.) AbbVie Biomedicine Yes 12,543 14,012 2 Harvoni Ledipasvir and Sofosbuvir Anti-virus (HIV, Hepatitis etc.) Gilead Sciences Chemical No 2,127 13,864 3 Enbrel Etanercept Immunology (Organ Transplant, Arthritis etc.) Amgen / Pfizer Biomedicine Yes 4,688 8,697 4 Remicade Infliximab Immunology (Organ Transplant, Arthritis etc.) Johnson & Johnson / Merck Biomedicine Yes 6,868 8,355 5 MabThera/Rituxan Rituximab Anti-cancer Roche Biomedicine Yes 5,659 7,115 6 Lantus Insulin Glargine Diabetes Sanofi Biomedicine No (Insulin) 6,978 7,029 7 Avastin Bevacizumab Anti-cancer Roche Biomedicine Yes 6,481 6,751 8 Herceptin Trastuzumab Anti-cancer Roche Biomedicine Yes 6,338 6,603 9 Revlimid Lenalidomide Blood Related Disorders Celgene Corpoartion Chemical No 4,980 5,801 10 Sovaldi Sofosbuvir Anti-virus (HIV, Hepatitis etc.) Gilead Sciences Chemical No 10,283 5,276 11 Seretide / Advair Salmeterol Respiratory Disorders GlaxoSmithKline Chemical No 6,005 5,227 12 Crestor Rosuvastatin Calcium heart & brain medicine AstraZeneca Chemical No 5,512 5,017 13 Lyrica Pregabalin Neuroscience and Mental Health Pfizer Inc. Chemical No 5,168 4,839 14 Neulasta Pegfilgrastim Blood Related Disorders Amgen Biomedicine No 4,596 4,715 15 Gleevec / Glivec Imatinib Anti-cancer Novartis Chemical No 4,746 4,658 16 Xarelto Rivaroxaban Anticoagulants Bayer / Johnson & Johnson Chemical No 3,369 4,345 17 Copaxone Glatiramer Neuroscience and Mental Health Teva Biomedicine No 4,237 4,023 18 Januvia Sitagliptin Diabetes Merck & Co Chemical No 3,931 3,863 19 Abilify Aripiprazole Neuroscience and Mental Health Bristol-Myers Squibb/ Otsuka Holdings Chemical No 6,485 3,804 20 Tecfidera Dimethyl Fumarate Neuroscience and Mental Health Biogen Chemical No 2,909 3,638 Source: Pharmacompass and Guosen Securities(HK) Research Figure 5 World’s top 10 best-selling drugs in 2015 by numbers Figure 6 World’s top 10 best selling drugs in 2015 by sales values (USDm) Chemical, 3, Chemical, 30% 24,941 , 30% Biomedicine, 7, 70% Biomedicine, 58,562 , 70% Source: Pharmacompass, and Guosen Securities (HK) Research Source: Pharmacompass, and Guosen Securities (HK) Research Guosen Securities (HK) 5 China / Healthcare Jason Siu PhD, +852 2899 6747, [email protected] In accordance to EvaluatePharma, a leader in industry consensus forecast, AbbVie’s Humira would likely stay as #1 global best-selling product in 2020 with sales of USD13.9bn. However, threats of biosimilars (generic version of biomedicines) from other companies may hamper the product sales growth, likely at its peak in 2017 at USD16bn. We also agree that Opdivo, Bristol-Myers Squib’s anti- PD-1 monoclonal antibody climbs to global top third position in 2020, post its market launch in 2014. From the same sources, nine out of top
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