Proptech Market Update 1H 2020 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY – 1H 2020 REAL ESTATE TECHNOLOGY
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PRELIMINARY CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT PropTech Market Update 1H 2020 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY – 1H 2020 REAL ESTATE TECHNOLOGY » COVID-19 and the associated economic shut-down has broad implications for the Real Estate and PropTech markets » Market environment has created both opportunity and dislocation in PropTech and while some companies and market segments will be negatively impacted, many will benefit from tech tailwinds created by the crisis: PropTech is a massive market category with sub-verticals that are impacted in very different ways depending on their end-market focus, go-to-market strategy, distribution channels and revenue models – Sub-vertical Matters: Residential RE, CRE Office, CRE Multifamily, Mortgage Tech, Hospitality Tech, Construction Tech, Facilities Management, Data / Analytics businesses, etc. all have very different end-market dynamics that impact performance – Business Model Matters: Enterprise vs. B2C; recurring subscription revenue vs. transactional models; and fixed asset cost vs. variable costs drive preservation of revenue and unit economics – Scale Matters: Scale platform solutions help enhance ability to weather slowdown and emerge as a leaders and consolidators going forward vs. point solutions » M&A and growth investment deals are still getting done despite macro headwinds – 1H 2020 decline of only ~6% y/y in capital raise activity in the PropTech market despite COVID-19 and Q2 saw a 97% increase in invested capital y/y – driven by large investments in category leaders Vacasa, AirBnb and Sonder – $4.4Bn in growth capital raised YTD in the U.S. PropTech space across 136 deals through June 2020 – 36 U.S. PropTech M&A transactions through June 2020, including two significant transactions, First American’s acquisition of DocuTech and CoStar’s acquisition of RentPath » GCA believes that PropTech adoption will accelerate due to COVID-19 and the industry will emerge stronger as a result 2 LEADING ADVISORY TEAM FOCUSED ON THE PROPTECH MARKET GCA U.S. PropTech Team Global Leader in PropTech Advisory Chris Gough Managing Director Acquired Majority Acquired by Acquired by Acquired by interest Head of Real Estate Technology acquired by Phone: (415) 318-3658 A Portfolio Company of A Portfolio Company of [email protected] We advised the buyer We advised the seller We advised the seller We advised the seller We advised the seller Zain Azeem [email protected] Majority Interest Acquired by Acquired by Acquired by Acquired Lizzie Cooperstone Acquired by [email protected] Key Sub-Sector Coverage Verticals We advised the seller We advised the seller We advised the seller We advised the seller We advised the buyer Residential RE Software Commercial RE Software Acquired by Acquired by Acquired by Acquired by Investment from Mortgage / Lending Title / Insurance We advised the seller We advised the seller We advised the seller We advised the seller We advised the seller Home Services Facilities Management a portfolio company of Investment from Acquired by Acquired by MBO backed by Construction Tech Acquired by IWMS We advised the seller We advised the seller We advised the seller We advised the seller We advised the seller 3 GCA: A LEADING INDEPENDENT GLOBAL INVESTMENT BANK Global investment bank providing strategic M&A and capital markets advisory services to growth companies and market leaders STOCKHOLM MANCHESTER LEEDS PARIS FRANKFURT BIRMINGHAM MUNICH KYOTO NAGOYA ZURICH TOKYO LONDON SHANGHAI NEW YORK LAUSANNE MILAN NEW DELHI OSAKA TEL AVIV SAN FRANCISCO FUKUOKA TAIPEI MUMBAI SINGAPORE HO CHI MINH CITY Global platform: Sector expertise: Exceptional cross- 25 offices in key Experienced team: Expansive coverage border capabilities: markets across Over 500 employees and deep Half of all America, Asia and across the globe specialization transactions Europe Broad spectrum Diversified Strong reputation of clients: business model: and track record: Leading Geographically High number of conglomerates, top balanced, synergistic repeat clients and private equity firms and complementary referrals and emerging high- focus areas growth companies 4 GCA operates as GCA in America and Asia, and GCA Altium in Europe I. COVID-19 UPDATE II. PROPTECH MARKET SUMMARY APPENDIX 5 MARKET UPDATE: COVID-19 Key U.S. Developments Select Implications for PropTech » US in Various Stages of Reopening ✓ Residential Real Estate Remains “Essential” » All 50 states had begun to reopen in some way after the » Consumer interest rates remain at historically low levels ➔ coronavirus drove the country into lockdown starting in driving significant refinancing activity and will support home March values on new purchase » Now, a growing number of states are pausing plans to » Crisis has impacted spring buying season ➔ likely leads to reopen, amid rising case counts(1) pent-up demand in 2H 2020 vs. evaporation of demand » Unemployment Claims Reached Record High But Have Since » Adoption of tech solutions in RE transaction increasing ➔ Decreased virtual showings, transaction management software, eSignatures, virtual notary, digital loan origination, etc. » In the week ending June 20, the 4-week moving average was 1,620,750 filed, a decrease of 160,750 from the previous » Tech to drive cost savings and productivity enhancement week's average for transaction exposed models (e.g., title / brokerage, etc.) » Strong Bipartisan Fiscal Action ✓ Commercial Real Estate Needs Tech to Adapt to Challenging Macro Trends » $2+Tn CARES act passed on 3/27 to provide relief to unemployed and small businesses » Highly challenged traditional retail environment » White House approved an additional ~$480Bn bill on 4/21 » Corporations rethinking their approach to office space in replenishing small business loans program post-COVID world ➔ drives need for enhanced tenant engagement, space utilization and building / facilities » Unprecedented Federal Reserve Response management tools » Fed reduced the fed funds rate to 0-0.25% on 3/15 and ✓ Accelerated Adoption of PropTech Platforms intends to maintain this target » COVID impacts expose shortcomings of “traditional” » Introduced “unlimited” bond buying program approach across RE end markets ➔ PropTech delivers » Government Response Targeted to Real Estate operating efficiencies, enhances customer / consumer » FHFA announced that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will experience, data-driven decision making and ability to extend moratorium on single-family evictions and operate virtually foreclosures until at least August 31, 2020 ✓ Scale Players Likely to Extend Lead » Well-capitalized scale leaders will extend their competitive Notes: (1) As of June 30, 2020. advantage in this market 6 1H 2020 PROPTECH SECTOR SUMMARY – KEY-SUB SEGMENT TRENDS » Fundamentals remain strong: RRE transaction delays will drive strong 2H 2020 market activity ➔ COVID-19 impacted key spring selling season in RRE, but historically low interest rates and strong showing activity & mortgage applications provide strong positive leading indicators for transaction rebound Residential Real Estate » COVID-19 accelerating “digitization” of the transaction ➔ virtual showings, performance / data-driven Technology customer capture, virtual notary, transaction management, broker management tools, tech driven escrow / title all will benefit from adoption tailwinds in post-COVID market » Integration and combination of tool sets is critical to drive productivity ➔ expect continued consolidation of toolsets in RRE to create central “platforms” for brokers / teams / agents » Market outlook for CRE is mixed and highly end-market dependent – hotel vs. retail vs. CRE office vs. multifamily » CRE building management solutions remain highly attractive segments for investors ➔ large TAM market remains very fragmented Commercial Real Estate » CRE office solutions that deliver operational efficiency drive high ROI and are in high demand (energy Technology efficiency, utilities bulling, predictive maintenance, etc.) » Tenant engagement, tenant experience and tenant safety tools are also critical in post-COVID environment » Continued activity and strong momentum in multifamily management software, especially for firms that are using tech to enhance tenant experience » Expect adoption of construction tech to accelerate in post-COVID environment – digitization of building Construction models, collaboration tools, jobsite management tools (vendors / labor) and marketplace models will drive Technology growth » Off-site / modular construction likely to benefit as well 7 COVID-19 IMPACT IN RRE: DEMAND DELAY VS. DEMAND DISAPPEARANCE Economic indicators points towards strong recovery in RRE transaction activity in 2H 2020 1 CONSTRICTED SUPPLY AS INVENTORY NEAR RECORD LOWS(1) 2 MORTGAGE RATES NEAR HISTORIC LOWS(2) 2.4 5.3% Housing Inventory (MM) 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average 2.2 4.8% 2.0 1.8 4.3% 1.6 3.8% 1.4 3.3% 1.2 3.1% 1.0 2.8% May-16 May-17 May-18 May-19 May-20 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-20 BUT PRICING REMAINS STEADY AND CLEAR SIGNS OF ABRUPT FALLOFF IN TRANSACTIONS IN COVID(1, 3) 3 4 RECOVERY UNDERWAY(4) U.S. pending home sales surged a record 44% in May $370,000 Median Sales Price 6.0 60% $320,000 5.6 40% 5.2 $270,000 Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Q1 2020 4.8 20% REAL ESTATE SHOWING INDEX (7-DAY MOVING AVERAGE, (5) 4.4 JANUARY NORMALIZED) 0% Showings currently up 24% y/y as a leading indicator to activity 4.0 60% 2019 2020 3.6 (20%) 50% Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-20 20% 30% Existing Home Sales (MM) (20%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Mortgage Applications (Week-Over-Week